Movie quote of the day:
“The board is set…the pieces are moving”
— Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003)
The NFL equivalent to Christmas Day is upon us. I couldn’t be more excited about it. For the first time in years, I’m not stressed about what Green Bay plans to do in the draft. With the Packers being so young, they could go in a variety of different directions and whoever they pick will likely make an impact.
This is easily the best draft class that we’ve seen in the last three or four years. It’s loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball, specifically at quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line. That’s not to say that there aren’t good defensive players in this draft class. I think that side of the ball is deep at cornerback and interior defensive line. If your team is looking for a good linebacker, safety, edge rusher, tight end, or running back, it’ll have to draft one early because there’s not much depth at those positions.
There’s still so much uncertainty with what’s going to happen in the first round when it comes to the quarterback position. I feel strongly about which quarterback Chicago will draft with the No. 1 overall pick, but I don’t know about the rest. Does Minnesota or the Giants move up for a quarterback, or another team that we’re not anticipating? There will be no shortage of entertainment on that front. I’m pretty confident that this draft will break the record for most offensive players taken in the first round, which is currently 19.
I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t change this mock draft at least twice this week. My mock draft last year was the best I’ve ever filled out, with seven correct picks. There’s a lot of pressure for me to replicate that success. Remember, this is what I think the teams will do not what I’d do. I also don’t incorporate trades in my mock drafts.
First round:
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) — QB Caleb Williams, USC
All signs are pointing to Chicago using this pick on Williams. He’s currently a heavy favorite (-20000) to be the No. 1 overall pick. There’s lot to like about Williams. He’s the best quarterback prospect to come through the draft since Trevor Lawrence, and has the highest ceiling of the prospects at the position in this draft class. Williams can also start right away for the Bears.
2. Washington Commanders (4-13) — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
It’s clear that Washington is picking a quarterback with this pick. I’m just not convinced which one. I’m giving the nod to Daniels because the odds have continued to shift in his favor the closer we get to the draft. I don’t think Daniels has a particularly high ceiling, but he’s a dynamic playmaker. That’s something that Washington hasn’t had at the position since the Robert Griffin III era.
3. New England Patriots (4-13) — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
It seems like New England wants to trade out of this pick. I’m not convinced that it’ll be able to do that, though. If the Patriots stay, I think they have to take a quarterback. New England can’t go into the season with just Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe. Drafting Maye makes too much sense. I think he might have the second-highest ceiling of the quarterback prospects in this draft class.
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Arizona will likely listen to trade offers, but I doubt it’ll get out of this pick. The Cardinals moved on from Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore this offseason, which tells me that they’re honing in on Harrison. He’s considered to be the best wide receiver prospect to come through the draft since Ja’Marr Chase. I think Harrison would make an immediate impact as a rookie.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — T JC Latham, Alabama
I realize that the Chargers need pass catchers, but I think drafting one this early goes against Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz’s DNA. If the Chargers keep this pick, I fully expect them to draft an offensive lineman. However, I think it’ll be Latham. He’s a better fit for right tackle, which is what the Chargers need. Latham’s play style is also perfect for what Harbaugh likes to do offensively.
6. New York Giants (6-11) — WR Malik Nabers, LSU
I wouldn’t rule out the Giants trading up for a quarterback. That buzz has only picked up recently, but I need to see it happen. The Giants could use a No. 1 pass catcher, which they haven’t had since trading away Odell Beckham Jr. in 2019. Nabers hasn’t turned 21 yet, so it might take him time to develop. However, Nabers has a high ceiling and could be a great weapon for the Giants.
7. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — T Joe Alt, Notre Dame
If this is the way the board falls, I don’t think Tennessee will waste any time getting this pick into commissioner Roger Goodell. The Titans have regressed along the offensive line in recent years and could really use a left tackle. Alt is considered the best offensive lineman in this draft class and can start right away at left tackle. I think this is a no-brainer decision for Tennessee.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
Atlanta has ranked in the bottom half of the league in sacks and/or pressure rate for the last few years. It seems like the Falcons are finally going to use a first-round pick to bolster their pass rush, which they haven’t done since 2017. It’s unclear which pass rusher Atlanta will target with this pick, but I think it’ll be Turner. He’s a better fit for Raheem Morris’ defensive scheme.
9. Chicago Bears (7-10) — DL Byron Murphy II, Texas
I actually think Chicago could go Murphy even if one of the top three pass catchers is still on the board. The Bears need more difference makers along their defensive front besides Montez Sweat, specifically in the interior. Murphy is a little undersized (6’0″, 297 pounds), but he’s twitchy and could be a problem as a pass rusher. Murphy could also contribute immediately in Chicago.
10. New York Jets (7-10) — WR Rome Odunze, Washington
If you believe the article by The Athletic that Aaron Rodgers is the De facto general manager of the Jets, I think you can expect this pick to be used on a pass catcher. I have a difficult time believing the Jets will pass on Odunze. They don’t have many quality perimeter wide receivers besides Mike Williams, who can’t stay healthy. Having Odunze will open up the Jets’ passing attack.
11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) — QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan
It’s clear that Minnesota is targeting a quarterback early in the draft. After acquiring Houston’s first-round pick, I expect the Vikings to use that extra capital to trade up to get their next long-term starter. I think McCarthy will be their choice. He’s a project that will have to sit for one season (maybe even two), but the Vikings seem to like him a lot. I think this is a good spot for McCarthy.
12. Denver Broncos (8-9) — QB Bo Nix, Oregon
The acquisition of Zach Wilson doesn’t change my opinion of Denver’s quarterback situation. The Broncos still don’t have a starter, and are basically in a position where they have to draft one with this pick. If not, Denver will have to wait until the third round, which I don’t see happening. Nix makes the most sense for the Broncos. He’d be a great fit in Sean Payton’s offense.
13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
There have been rumors the last few weeks that Las Vegas has been eyeballing a quarterback, allegedly even trying to trade up to No. 2 to pick one. If this is the way the board falls, I think the Raiders would take Penix. He has the physical traits to succeed at the next level. The odds have also steadily shifted in Penix’s favor recently for him to be drafted in the first round.
14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — T Olu Fashanu, Penn State
New Orleans typically doesn’t look to the future when it comes to roster needs. I expect it to draft its most immediate need with this pick, which is offensive tackle. Andrus Peat remains a free agent, Ryan Ramczyk is dealing with a knee injury, and Trevor Penning has struggled since entering the NFL. Fashanu can play immediately and has a lot of experience playing left tackle.
15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
This isn’t an immediate need for Indianapolis, but it’s been linked to pass catchers all offseason. If Bowers falls this far, I doubt the Colts will pass on him. Bowers is a versatile player and is also an effective blocker. Having him will give Indianapolis a presence in the middle of the field that it probably hasn’t had since Coby Fleener. This will really help Anthony Richardson’s development.
16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
The interior of Seattle’s offensive line was already a need prior to Damien Lewis leaving during free agency. The Seahawks currently have four guards on their roster that had an average Pro Football Focus grade of just 51.1 last year, which is well below average. Drafting Fuaga makes too much sense for Seattle. He can easily slide inside to guard and contribute immediately.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) — CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Jacksonville bolstered its defensive front this offseason by extending Josh Allen and acquiring Arik Armstead. That makes me think that the Jaguars will target a cornerback with this pick. Jacksonville doesn’t really have a playmaker in its secondary besides Tyson Campbell. Mitchell might need some time to develop, but his physical traits typically translate well to the NFL.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) — DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
I’m to the point that I need to see Cincinnati draft an offensive lineman in the first round. After losing D.J. Reader this offseason, I think the Bengals might prioritize the interior defensive line with this pick. Newton is an underrated prospect. He can be a force against the run and pass. I’m not confident that Newton will be taken in the top 20, but Cincinnati could really use him.
19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
The Rams have to address their defensive front in the draft. They already didn’t have much of a pass rush and Aaron Donald retired this offseason. I’m not convinced that Latu falls this far, but I think the Rams will take him with this pick if he’s still on the board. Latu (6’5”, 265 pounds) is more of a prototypical edge rusher. He also would likely be a top 10 pick if he didn’t have medical concerns.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) — T Troy Fautanu, Washington
I think Pittsburgh has something in Broderick Jones, who was the organization’s first-round pick last year. The Steelers could still use more help along their offensive line, and it feels like that’s the position they’ll target with this pick. It’s unclear if Fautanu is a tackle or guard, but he’s versatile enough to play both positions. Either way, he’ll likely help Pittsburgh in some capacity.
21. Miami Dolphins (11-6) — T Amarius Mims, Georgia
Miami’s offensive line already wasn’t great and it took a hit this offseason after losing Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams is still a free agent. Plus, Terron Armstead has struggled to stay healthy and even flirted with retirement. The Dolphins have to beef up their offensive line. Mims can play left or right tackle and he could learn behind Armstead. This is a good spot for Mims.
22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) — CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Philadelphia has to get younger at the cornerback position. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both well into their 30s. Plus, one of the reasons why the Eagles struggled so much defensively last year was because their secondary was porous. Arnold might have the best coverage skills of the cornerbacks in this draft class. GM Howie Roseman also likes to draft players from the SEC.
23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland via Houston) — Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
I genuinely have no idea what Minnesota will do if it keeps this pick, but it could afford to bolster its pass rush. Verse fills that need and he’s easily the best player still on the board. I think Verse is a very underrated prospect, and I’ll be surprised if he ends up falling this far. Having Verse, Jonathan Greenard, and Andrew Van Ginkel will give the Vikings plenty of depth coming off the edge.
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) — T Graham Barton, Duke
Dallas could go in several different directions with this pick. I keep going back to offensive line, which was already a need even before left tackle Tyron Smith signed with the Jets during free agency. The Cowboys need to add to the position. I think they could have their eyes on a player like Barton, who’s versatile enough to play tackle or guard. Dallas could really use him up front.
25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) — CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
I’m not sure there’s a player in this draft class that’s a better fit for Green Bay than DeJean. The Packers need help in the secondary and he’s versatile enough to play multiple positions. DeJean also checks Green Bay’s boxes when it comes to athleticism and physical traits, and he’s from the Midwest. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if GM Brian Gutekunst moves up to get DeJean.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) — Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
I don’t know if Robinson will be who Tampa Bay selects with this pick. However, he tested so well that I’m pretty confident that he’ll be taken in the first round. I just don’t know where. Tampa Bay could use more pass rushers. The Buccaneers moved on from Shaquil Barrett this offseason, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t been the player they thought he’d be. This is a good landing spot for Robinson.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) — CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
If the board falls this way, I expect Arizona to draft the best player available. I think that’s Wiggins right now. He also fills a need for the Cardinals, who need a playmaker at cornerback. I have reservations about Wiggins because of his weight (173 pounds). However, Wiggins has excellent coverage skills and I think it’s likely that a team takes a chance on him in the first round.
28. Buffalo Bills (11-6) — WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
I’ll be surprised if Buffalo doesn’t use this pick on a wide receiver. The Bills don’t have many playmakers at the position after moving on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. Plus, Thomas is easily the best player still on the board. I doubt he’ll end up falling this far, but I’m not sure which team will draft him. Thomas would likely be the immediate No. 1 receiver in Buffalo’s offense.
29. Detroit Lions (12-5) — CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
Don’t be surprised if Detroit trades out of this pick. However, I don’t think the Lions will pass on a player like McKinstry. Detroit struggled to defend the pass last year. The Lions improved in that area after acquiring Carlton Davis, but there’s more work to be done. I don’t know if Detroit will consider McKinstry a fit, but he has incredible instincts and would pair well with Davis.
30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) — WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
Baltimore is currently favored to pick an offensive lineman with its first pick, but I don’t know if it can pass on Mitchell. I feel strongly that he’ll be picked in the first round after the way he tested. The Ravens don’t have a perimeter wide receiver on their roster. With Mitchell on the outside, and Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers up the seam, Baltimore’s passing attack could open up.
31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
Since 2014, there have been five wide receivers, including Worthy, to run a sub-4.27 40-yard dash. Three of them were picked in the first round. Worthy broke the 40-yard dash record at the combine, so I feel strongly that he’ll be selected in the first round. I just don’t know where. If the rumors are true that San Francisco could trade Brandon Aiyuk, this becomes a possible spot for Worthy.
32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) — T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
The narrative being pushed is that Kansas City will target a wide receiver with this pick. I’ll believe it when I see it. The Chiefs must continue to keep Patrick Mahomes upright, and they have a glaring hole at left tackle that needs to be filled. Guyton is a bit of a project and will need some time to develop, but he’s worth the risk. Drafting him at this point is also pretty good value.
Second round:
| Pick | Player |
| 33. Carolina Panthers (2-15) | WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina |
| 34. New England Patriots | WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia |
| 35. Arizona Cardinals | IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon |
| 36. Washington Commanders | T Jordan Morgan, Arizona |
| 37. Los Angeles Chargers | WR Keon Coleman, Florida State |
| 38. Tennessee Titans | WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington |
| 39. Carolina Panthers (from New York Giants) | Edge Darius Robinson, Missouri |
| 40. Washington Commanders (from Chicago) | Edge Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan |
| 41. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets) | T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU |
| 42. Houston Texans (from Minnesota) | DL Braden Fiske, Florida State |
| 43. Atlanta Falcons | CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri |
| 44. Las Vegas Raiders | T Patrick Paul, Houston |
| 45. New Orleans Saints (from Denver) | DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan |
| 46. Indianapolis Colts | CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan |
| 47. New York Giants (from Seattle) | S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota |
| 48. Jacksonville Jaguars | WR Troy Franklin, Oregon |
| 49. Cincinnati Bengals | T Roger Rosengarten, Washington |
| 50. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) | WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida |
| 51. Pittsburgh Steelers | IOL Zach Frazier, West Virginia |
| 52. Los Angeles Rams | QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina |
| 53. Philadelphia Eagles | T Kiran Amegadjie, Yale |
| 54. Cleveland Browns (11-6) | DL Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State |
| 55. Miami Dolphins | DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson |
| 56. Dallas Cowboys | LB Payton Wilson, NC State |
| 57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | CB TJ Tampa, Iowa State |
| 58. Green Bay Packers | LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M |
| 59. Houston Texans (10-7) | LB Junior Colson, Michigan |
| 60. Buffalo Bills | CB Andru Phillips, Kentucky |
| 61. Detroit Lions | Edge Adisa Isaac, Penn State |
| 62. Baltimore Ravens | IOL Christian Haynes, UConn |
| 63. San Francisco 49ers | IOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State |
| 64. Kansas City Chiefs | WR Roman Wilson, Michigan |
Third round:
| Pick | Player |
| 65. Carolina Panthers | TE Ben Sinnott, Kansas State |
| 66. Arizona Cardinals | DL T’Vondre Sweat, Texas |
| 67. Washington Commanders | S Javon Bullard, Georgia |
| 68. New England Patriots | T Blake Fisher, Notre Dame |
| 69. Los Angeles Chargers | RB Blake Corum, Michigan |
| 70. New York Giants | DL Brandon Dorlus, Oregon |
| 71. Arizona Cardinals (from Tennessee) | IOL Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia |
| 72. New York Jets | T Brandon Coleman, TCU |
| 73. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota) | IOL Mason McCormick, South Dakota State |
| 74. Atlanta Falcons | WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State |
| 75. Chicago Bears | WR Jermaine Burton, Alabama |
| 76. Denver Broncos | WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky |
| 77. Las Vegas Raiders | CB Max Melton, Rutgers |
| 78. Washington Commanders (from Seattle) | TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas |
| 79. Atlanta Falcons (from Jacksonville) | DL Leonard Taylor III, Miami |
| 80. Cincinnati Bengals | CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon |
| 81. Seattle Seahawks (from New Orleans via Denver) | S Jaden Hicks, Washington State |
| 82. Indianapolis Colts | WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina |
| 83. Los Angeles Rams | CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia |
| 84. Pittsburgh Steelers | WR Javon Baker, UCF |
| 85. Cleveland Browns | LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson |
| Miami Dolphins | Pick Forfeited |
| 86. Houston Texans (from Philadelphia) | WR Jalen McMillan, Washington |
| 87. Dallas Cowboys | RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas |
| 88. Green Bay Packers | IOL Trevor Keegan, Michigan |
| 89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | IOL Christian Mahogany, Boston College |
| 90. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) | Edge Jonah Elliss, Utah |
| 91. Green Bay Packers (from Buffalo) | S Cole Bishop, Utah |
| 92. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Detroit) | RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee |
| 93. Baltimore Ravens | Edge Chris Braswell, Alabama |
| 94. San Francisco 49ers | T Matt Goncalves, Pitt |
| 95. Kansas City Chiefs | WR Malik Washington, Virginia |
| 96. Jacksonville Jaguars (compensatory pick) | Edge Austin Booker, Kansas |
| 97. Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory pick) | TE Cade Stover, Ohio State |
| 98. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory pick; from Philadelphia) | CB Renardo Green, Florida State |
| 99. Los Angeles Rams (Resolution JC-2A pick) | T Dominick Puni, Kansas |
| 100. Washington Commanders (Resolution JC-2A pick; from San Francisco) | Edge Xavier Thomas, Clemson |
All Things Sports from a Millennial 