2024 NFL Draft grades for all 32 teams

April 29, 2024April 28, 2024Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Knights of Columbus, that hurt.”

— Ron Burgundy, “Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy” (2004)

Members of the NFL are setting up the main theater area on Tuesday, April 23, 2024 for the NFL DRAFT that will be held in Detroit later this week. Mandatory credit: USA TODAY

It feels like the 2024 NFL Draft ended just as quickly as it came. I did pretty well in my own mock draft. I finished with eight correct picks in the first round, which was a new personal best, and the same result as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and a better result than ESPN’s Matt Miller. I even posted a new personal best when it comes to correctly predicting the position teams would draft (17) and tied my record for the correct number of players selected in the first round (28). I was on a heater, to say the least. It’s even more impressive when you consider that I’m not as plugged in as those guys.

My biggest takeaway from this draft is just how offensively driven the game is becoming. That’s nothing I didn’t already know, but it feels like this was the first time to see it come to fruition through the draft. The first 14 picks of the first round were used on offensive players, including six quarterbacks in the top 12. There were also 23 offensive players taken in the first round, which is a new record. I think that speaks volumes to how the game is being played at the collegiate level.

I’m intrigued to see how the players in this draft class pan out in the NFL, maybe even more so than usual. This draft class was historically great on the offensive side of the ball, particularly at quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line. I want to see if these players live up to the hype at the next level. I also want to see if the defensive players can exceed expectations, because this class wasn’t highly regarded on that side of the ball.

This is the eighth year in a row that I’ve given draft grades for every team. I think I’m finally figuring out to evaluate the way these teams construct their rosters. It’s still pretty subjective, though.

Draft grades:

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Arizona Cardinals as the No. 4 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Cardinals
Selections: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Round: 1 Pick: 4), DL Darius Robinson (Round: 1 Pick: 27), CB Max Melton (Round: 2 Pick: 43), RB Trey Benson (Round: 3 Pick: 66), IOL Isaiah Adams (Round: 3 Pick: 71), TE Tip Reiman (Round: 3 Pick: 82), CB Elijah Jones (Round: 3 Pick: 90), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Round: 4 Pick: 104), Edge Xavier Thomas (Round: 5 Pick: 138), T Christian Jones (Round: 5 Pick: 162), WR Tejhaun Palmer (Round: 6 Pick: 194), CB Jaden Davis (Round: 7 Pick: 226)

Despite having 12 picks, I’m a little underwhelmed with Arizona’s draft. I wasn’t crazy about Robinson as a prospect, so drafting him in the first round felt like a reach. I also didn’t think the value was there for Adams and Reiman in the third round. The Cardinals still managed to get good players in the second round and on Day 3, along with arguably the best player of the draft in Harrison.

Grade: B+

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) passes against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Falcons
Selections: QB Michael Penix Jr. (Round: 1 Pick: 8), DL Ruke Orhorhoro (Round: 1 Pick: 35), Edge Bralen Trice (Round: 3 Pick: 74), DL Brandon Dorlus (Round: 4 Pick: 109), LB JD Bertrand (Round: 5 Pick: 143), RB Jase McClellan (Round: 6 Pick: 186), WR Casey Washington (Round: 6 Pick: 187), DL Zion Logue (Round: 6 Pick: 197)

I actually don’t hate Atlanta’s decision to draft Penix. Having a succession plan at quarterback is never a bad thing. However, I’m not crazy about an almost 24-year-old sitting the bench for the next few years. The Falcons did a great job bolstering their defensive front in selecting Orhorhoro, Trice, and Dorlus. Atlanta really could’ve used some help at cornerback, though.

Grade: C+

Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) returns an interception for a touchdown during the first quarter against Florida Atlantic at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY NETWORK

Baltimore Ravens
Selections: CB Nate Wiggins (Round: 1 Pick: 30), T Roger Rosengarten (Round: 2 Pick: 62), Edge Adisa Isaac (Round: 3 Pick: 93), WR Devontez Walker (Round: 4 Pick: 113), CB T.J. Tampa (Round: 4 Pick: 130), RB Rasheen Ali (Round: 5 Pick: 165), QB Devin Leary (Round: 6 Pick: 218), IOL Nick Samac (Round: 7 Pick: 228), S Sanoussi Kane (Round: 7 Pick: 250)

Baltimore went in a different direction than what I thought it’d go in the draft. The Ravens have needed depth at cornerback and offensive tackle for years, and they used three of their first five picks on those positions. Wiggins might turn into the best cornerback in this draft class. Baltimore also got great value by selecting Isaac, Walker, and Tampa in the third and fourth rounds.

Grade: A-

Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) avoids a tackle by Syracuse Orange linebacker Kadin Bailey (45) during the first quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills
Selections: WR Keon Coleman (Round: 2 Pick: 33), S Cole Bishop (Round: 2 Pick: 60), DL DeWayne Carter (Round: 3 Pick: 95), RB Ray Davis (Round: 4 Pick: 128), IOL Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (Round: 5 Pick: 141), LB Edefuan Ulofoshio (Round: 5 Pick: 160), Edge Javon Solomon (Round: 5 Pick: 168), T Tylan Grable (Round: 6 Pick: 204), CB Daequan Hardy (Round: 6 Pick: 219), IOL Travis Clayton (Round: 7 Pick: 221)

For the most part, I have zero issue with Buffalo’s decision to trade back so many times. The Bills needed to round out their roster. They’re getting good players in Coleman, Bishop, Carter, and Davis. Van Pran-Granger might compete for the starting center spot, too. My issue with Buffalo is its decision to trade with Kansas City in the first round, which knocks this grade down a bit.

Grade: B

South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Xavier Legette (17) makes a reception against Vanderbilt Commodores cornerback Trudell Berry (30) in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina Panthers
Selections: WR Xavier Legette (Round: 1 Pick: 32), RB Jonathan Brooks (Round: 2 Pick: 46), LB Trevin Wallace (Round: 3 Pick: 72), TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (Round: 4 Pick: 101), CB Chau Smith-Wade (Round: 5 Pick: 157), DL Jaden Crumedy (Round: 6 Pick: 200), LB Michael Barrett (Round: 7 Pick: 240)

Despite not having many picks, I thought Carolina came away with some good players. Legette gives the Panthers a No. 1 receiver on the perimeter. Brooks will immediately be in the running back rotation. Sanders gives Carolina a presence in the middle of the field. I’m still surprised that the Panthers didn’t draft an edge rusher to replace Brian Burns. That dings their grade a bit.

Grade: C+

Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Chicago Bears as the No. 1 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Bears
Selections: QB Caleb Williams (Round: 1 Pick: 1), WR Rome Odunze (Round: 1 Pick: 9), T Kiran Amegadjie (Round: 3 Pick: 75), P Tory Taylor (Round: 4 Pick: 122), Edge Austin Booker (Round: 5 Pick: 144)

It’s hard to not do well in the draft when you have two picks in the top 10. Williams has a chance to be the best quarterback Chicago has ever had. I think Odunze could be the best wide receiver in this draft class. Amegadjie and Booker were solid picks after the first round. I loathe drafting specialists before the sixth round, though. I have to knock the Bears for that.

Grade: B+

Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati Bengals
Selections: T Amarius Mims (Round: 1 Pick: 18), DL Kris Jenkins (Round: 2 Pick: 49), WR Jermaine Burton (Round: 3 Pick: 80), DL McKinnley Jackson (Round: 3 Pick: 97), TE Erick All (Round: 4 Pick: 115), CB Josh Newton (Round: 5 Pick: 149), TE Tanner McLachlan (Round: 6 Pick: 194), Edge Cedric Johnson (Round: 6 Pick: 214), S Daijahn Anthony (Round: 7 Pick: 224), IOL Matt Lee (Round: 7 Pick: 237)

I thought Cincinnati did a great job of hitting on its needs. Mims is a project at offensive tackle, but the Bengals are a good spot for him because he won’t be asked to start right away. I love Cincinnati’s decision to beef up the interior of its defensive front by drafting Jenkins and Jackson. Burton gives them a needed No. 3 receiver. All and Newton are worth taking a chance on, too.

Grade: B+

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. (51) attempts to sack Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Brendan Sorsby (15) before a pass during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Browns
Selections: DL Michael Hall Jr. (Round: 2 Pick: 54), IOL Zak Zinter (Round: 3 Pick: 85), WR Jamari Thrash (Round: 5 Pick: 156), LB Nathaniel Watson (Round: 6 Pick: 206), CB Myles Harden (Round: 7 Pick: 227), DL Jowon Briggs (Round: 7 Pick: 243)

I don’t know what to make of Cleveland’s draft. The Browns didn’t have many picks, which I try not to hold against a team when giving grades. I like the Hall and Thrash selections, but this draft still leaves a lot to be desired. It’s unclear if Zinter will play this season after breaking his tibia and fibula back in November, so using a third-round pick on him was unnecessary.

Grade: C+

Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Tyler Guyton (60) at the line of scrimmage against the Kansas Jayhawks during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Cowboys
Selections: T Tyler Guyton (Round: 1 Pick: 29), Edge Marshawn Kneeland (Round: 2 Pick: 56), IOL Cooper Beebe (Round: 3 Pick: 73), LB Marist Liufau (Round: 3 Pick: 87), CB Caelen Carson (Round: 5 Pick: 174), WR Ryan Flournoy (Round: 6 Pick: 216), T Nathan Thomas (Round: 7 Pick: 233), DL Justin Rogers (Round: 7 Pick: 244)

Drafting a project like Guyton tells me that Dallas plans to move Tyler Smith to left tackle, and Beebe will take Smith’s spot at guard. That’s a smart move by the Cowboys. Kneeland will provide immediate depth along the defensive front. Carson might be a gem in the fifth round. I also think people are overreacting to Dallas not picking a running back. I think the Cowboys had a pretty good draft.

Grade: B-

Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to throw during the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos
Selections: QB Bo Nix (Round: 1 Pick: 12), Edge Jonah Elliss (Round: 3 Pick: 76), WR Troy Franklin (Round: 4 Pick: 102), CB Kris Abrams-Draine (Round: 5 Pick: 145), RB Audric Estimé (Round: 5 Pick: 147), WR Devaughn Vele (Round: 7 Pick: 235), IOL Nick Gargiulo (Round: 7 Pick: 256)

Denver addressed its biggest needs with its first four picks, but I don’t like the players it drafted. Nix, Elliss, Franklin, and Abrams-Draine are all undersized players with low ceilings. I just don’t think their physical limitations mesh well in a cold weather city like Denver. My favorite pick by the Broncos was probably Estimé, who came in the fifth round. I’m not crazy about this draft.

Grade: C

Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold poses after being selected by the Detroit Lions as the No. 24 pick of the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Lions
Selections: CB Terrion Arnold (Round: 1 Pick: 24), CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Round: 2 Pick: 61), T Giovanni Manu (Round: 4 Pick: 126), S/RB Sione Vaki (Round: 4 Pick: 132), DL Mekhi Wingo (Round: 6 Pick: 189), IOL Christian Mahogany (Round: 6 Pick: 210)

Detroit doubled down at cornerback, which was its biggest need. The Lions moved up to get arguably the best cornerback in this draft class in Arnold, and even Rakestraw is a good player despite not testing well. Detroit also found maulers of offensive linemen in Manu and Mahogany. Wingo was a steal in the sixth round. I thought this was another terrific draft by Brad Holmes.

Grade: A-

Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Packers
Selections: T Jordan Morgan (Round: 1 Pick: 25), LB Edgerrin Cooper (Round: 2 Pick: 45), S Javon Bullard (Round: 2 Pick: 58), RB MarShawn Lloyd (Round: 3 Pick: 88), LB Ty’Ron Hopper (Round: 3 Pick: 91), S Evan Williams (Round: 4 Pick: 111), IOL Jacob Monk (Round: 5 Pick: 163), S Kitan Oladapo (Round: 5 Pick: 169), T Travis Glover (Round: 6 Pick: 202), QB Michael Pratt (Round: 7 Pick: 245), CB Kalen King (Round: 7 Pick: 255)

Brian Gutekunst did an excellent job bolstering the middle of Green Bay’s defense, which was the team’s biggest weakness. The Packers got two immediate starters in the second round in Cooper and Bullard. First-round pick Morgan should provide depth at offensive tackle. I didn’t think Green Bay got great value with some of its Day 3 picks. That’s why this grade isn’t higher.

Grade: B

Vanderbilt Commodores wide receiver Quincy Skinner Jr. (3) catches a pass as he is defended by Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Kamari Lassiter (3) during the first half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans
Selections: CB Kamari Lassiter (Round: 2 Pick: 42), T Blake Fisher (Round: 2 Pick: 59), S Calen Bullock (Round: 3 Pick: 78), TE Cade Stover (Round: 4 Pick: 123), LB Jamal Hill (Round: 6 Pick: 188), RB Jawhar Jordan (Round: 6 Pick: 205), DL Solomon Byrd (Round: 7 Pick: 238), DL Marcus Harris (Round: 7 Pick: 247), IOL LaDarius Henderson (Round: 7 Pick: 249)

For a young team that could’ve used a great draft, I didn’t think Houston did that well. In hindsight, I think the Texans should’ve kept their first-round pick. I think Lassiter is more of a nickel than a boundary cornerback at the next level. Bullock is an undersized safety that can’t tackle. I like the Fisher pick, but he’s a project. I don’t know how much Houston improved after this draft.

Grade: C

UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Indianapolis Colts as the No. 15 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts
Selections: Edge Laiatu Latu (Round: 1 Pick: 15), WR Adonai Mitchell (Round: 2 Pick: 52), T Matt Goncalves (Round: 3 Pick: 79), IOL Tanor Bortolini (Round: 4 Pick: 117), WR Anthony Gould (Round: 5 Pick: 142), LB Jaylon Carlies (Round: 5 Pick: 151), S Jaylin Simpson (Round: 5 Pick: 164), CB Micah Abraham (Round: 6 Pick: 201), DL Jonah Laulu (Round: 7 Pick: 234)

Chris Ballard put together another solid draft for Indianapolis. The Colts have needed to bolster their pass rush for years and it got Latu, who might be the best edge rusher in this draft class. Mitchell was a steal in the second round. The Colts added depth to their offensive line by picking Goncalves and Bortolini. My issue is that Indianapolis waited until the sixth round to draft a cornerback.

Grade: B+

LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. poses after being selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars as the No. 23 pick during the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville Jaguars
Selections: WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Round: 1 Pick: 23), DL Maason Smith (Round: 2 Pick: 48), CB Jarrian Jones (Round: 3 Pick: 96), T Javon Foster (Round: 4 Pick: 114), DL Jordan Jefferson (Round: 4 Pick: 116), CB Deantre Prince (Round: 5 Pick: 153), RB Keilan Robinson (Round: 5 Pick: 167), K Cam Little (Round: 6 Pick: 212), Edge Myles Cole (Round: 7 Pick: 236)

Jacksonville got off to a good start by trading back and still getting a great player in Thomas. However, I don’t think the value was there for Smith in the second round. Jones is likely a nickel in the NFL and not a boundary cornerback, which is what the Jaguars needed. I don’t know if Foster or Jefferson will be difference makers. This draft feels like a mixed bag for Jacksonville.

Grade: C+

Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) carries the ball in the first half of the Longhorns’ game against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sara Diggins-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs
Selections: WR Xavier Worthy (Round: 1 Pick: 28), T Kingsley Suamataia (Round: 2 Pick: 63), TE Jared Wiley (Round: 4 Pick: 131), S Jaden Hicks (Round: 4 Pick: 133), IOL Hunter Nourzad (Round: 5 Pick: 159), QB Kamal Hadden (Round: 6 Pick: 211), IOL C.J. Hanson (Round: 7 Pick: 248)

I’m actually don’t love Kansas City’s decision to trade up to get Worthy. He should fit in well with the Chiefs’ offense, but I worry about his frame (165 pounds) in cold weather. I thought Kansas City’s next three picks were outstanding, though. Suamataia has a ton of upside at offensive tackle. Wiley could develop into a solid tight end. Hicks was also a steal in the fourth round.

Grade: B+

Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) carries a touchdown reception against the Auburn Tigers during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Las Vegas Raiders
Selections: TE Brock Bowers (Round: 1 Pick: 13), IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson (Round: 2 Pick: 44), T Delmar Glaze (Round: 3 Pick: 77), CB Decamerion Richardson (Round: 4 Pick: 112), LB Tommy Eichenberg (Round: 5 Pick: 148), RB Dylan Laube (Round: 6 Pick: 208), S Trey Taylor (Round: 7 Pick: 223), CB M.J. Devonshire (Round: 7 Pick: 229)

Tight end wasn’t a need, but I’ll never fault a team for drafting the best player available. Bowers will make an impact with the Raiders. Powers-Johnson can start right away in the interior of their offensive line. Richardson, Eichenberg, and Devonshire are Day 3 picks that fill needs. I’m surprised that Las Vegas didn’t draft a quarterback. That puts a lot of pressure on Gardner Minshew.

Grade: B-

Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Joe Alt (76) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Jordan Fox (10) during the fourth quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Chargers
Selections: T Joe Alt (Round: 1 Pick: 5), WR Ladd McConkey (Round: 2 Pick: 34), LB Junior Colson (Round: 3 Pick: 69), DL Justin Eboigbe (Round: 4 Pick: 105), CB Tarheeb Still (Round: 5 Pick: 137), CB Cam Hart (Round: 5 Pick: 140), RB Kimani Vidal (Round: 6 Pick: 181), WR Brenden Rice (Round: 7 Pick: 225), WR Cornelius Johnson (Round: 7 Pick: 253)

I really like what the Chargers did over the weekend. After getting Alt, they probably have the best offensive tackle duo in the league. McConkey will be a favorite target for Justin Herbert, with his separation ability. Colson, Eboigbe, Still, Hart, and Vidal fill roster needs that have been neglected for years. Getting Rice and Johnson in the seventh round were steals, too.

Grade: A

Florida State Seminoles defensive end Jared Verse (5) against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Rams
Selections: Edge Jared Verse (Round: 1 Pick: 19), DL Braden Fiske (Round: 2 Pick: 39), RB Blake Corum (Round: 3 Pick: 83), S Kamren Kinchens (Round: 3 Pick: 99), Edge Brennan Jackson (Round: 5 Pick: 154), DL Tyler Davis (Round: 6 Pick: 196), K Joshua Karty (Round: 6 Pick: 209), WR Jordan Whittington (Round: 6 Pick: 213), IOL Beaux Limmer (Round: 6 Pick: 217), T KT Leveston (Round: 7 Pick: 254)

I thought the Rams crushed it in the draft. After losing Aaron Donald this offseason, they focused on improving their defensive front by taking Verse, Fiske, Jackson, and Davis. Corum will be a great pair with Kyren Williams in the backfield. Kinchens didn’t test well, but he’s worth taking a chance on in the third round. The Rams also got terrific value for Limmer in the sixth round.

Grade: A

Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) celebrates after sacking Massachusetts quarterback Taisun Phommachanh in the first half of a NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in State College, Pa. Mandatory credit: Hanover Evening Sun

Miami Dolphins
Selections: Edge Chop Robinson (Round: 1 Pick: 21), T Patrick Paul (Round: 2 Pick: 55), RB Jaylen Wright (Round: 4 Pick: 120), Edge Mohamed Kamara (Round: 5 Pick: 158), WR Malik Washington (Round: 6 Pick: 184), S Patrick McMorris (Round: 6 Pick: 198), WR Tahj Washington (Round: 7 Pick: 241)

Miami did well despite not having many picks. The Dolphins added some depth to their pass rush by getting Robinson. Paul will provide depth at left tackle behind Terron Armstead, who’s struggled to stay healthy. Raheem Mostert could be a free agent next year, so drafting Wright in the fourth round makes sense. Miami even got some depth at wide receiver on Day 3.

Grade: B+

Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws against the Bowling Green Falcons in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings
Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy (Round: 1 Pick: 10), Edge Dallas Turner (Round: 1 Pick: 17), CB Khyree Jackson (Round: 4 Pick: 108), T Walter Rouse (Round: 6 Pick: 177), K Will Reichard (Round: 6 Pick: 203), IOL Michael Jurgens (Round: 7 Pick: 230), DL Levi Drake Rodriguez (Round: 7 Pick: 232)

Minnesota traded nine total draft picks (three of them in the second and third rounds this year and next year) to get McCarthy and Turner. That’s a lot of draft capital for a project at quarterback and an edge rusher with a low ceiling. This team that already didn’t have much depth and now it won’t have enough picks to change that. I like the Jackson pick in the fourth round, though.

Grade: C+

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the New England Patriots as the No. 3 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots
Selections: QB Drake Maye (Round: 1 Pick: 3), WR Ja’Lynn Polk (Round: 2 Pick: 37), T Caedan Wallace (Round: 3 Pick: 68), IOL Layden Robinson (Round: 4 Pick: 103), WR Javon Baker (Round: 4 Pick: 110), CB Marcellas Dial (Round: 6 Pick: 180), QB Joe Milton (Round: 6 Pick: 193), TE Jaheim Bell (Round: 7 Pick: 231)

New England emphasized the offensive side of the ball, which was needed. I don’t think Maye is ready to start right now, but he has a high ceiling and has the traits to be a franchise quarterback. Polk and Baker should make an immediate impact as pass catchers. I think Wallace is an underrated prospect. There was a lot of pressure on New England and I think it did pretty well.

Grade: B+

Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Saints
Selections: T Taliese Fuaga (Round: 1 Pick: 14), CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Round: 2 Pick: 41), QB Spencer Rattler (Round: 5 Pick: 150), WR Bub Means (Round: 5 Pick: 170), LB Jaylan Ford (Round: 5 Pick: 175), DL Khristian Boyd (Round: 6 Pick: 199), T Josiah Ezirim (Round: 7 Pick: 239)

New Orleans had a glaring need at offensive tackle and it drafted Fuaga, who might kick inside to guard. The Saints probably should’ve drafted another tackle before the seventh round. There’s a lot riding on Fuaga to acclimate quickly. I like the rest of New Orleans’ draft, though. McKinstry will provide depth at cornerback and Rattler is worth the risk in the fifth round.

Grade: B

LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the New York Giants as the No. 6 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

New York Giants
Selections: WR Malik Nabers (Round: 1 Pick: 6), S Tyler Nubin (Round: 2 Pick: 47), CB Andru Phillips (Round: 3 Pick: 70), TE Theo Johnson (Round: 4 Pick: 107), RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (Round: 5 Pick: 166), LB Darius Muasau (Round: 6 Pick: 183)

The Giants focused on patching up their roster after losing quality players this offseason. Nubin, Johnson, and Tracy will serve as replacements for Xavier McKinney, Darren Waller, and Saquon Barkley. Drafting Nabers finally gives the Giants a dynamic pass catcher. I even like the Phillips pick in the third round. My only issue with this draft is that the Giants neglected the offensive line.

Grade: B+

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end JT Tuimoloau (44) goes up against Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) during the third quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory credit: The Columbus Dispatch

New York Jets
Selections: T Olu Fashanu (Round: 1 Pick: 11), WR Malachi Corley (Round: 3 Pick: 65), RB Braelon Allen (Round: 4 Pick: 134), QB Jordan Travis (Round: 5 Pick: 173), RB Isaiah Davis (Round: 5 Pick: 173), CB Qwan’tez Stiggers (Round: 5 Pick: 176), S Jaylen Key (Round: 7 Pick: 257)

Joe Douglas hit on the Jets’ biggest needs early in the draft. Fashanu will be a long-term answer at left or right tackle, and can learn from Tyron Smith. Corley is a versatile wide receiver. I was surprised that the Jets drafted two running backs, considering Breece Hall still has two years on his rookie contract. I also think they could’ve used more help along the offensive line.

Grade: B-

Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell poses after being selected by the Philadelphia Eagles as the No. 22 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Eagles
Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell (Round: 1 Pick: 22), CB Cooper DeJean (Round: 2 Pick: 40), Edge Jalyx Hunt (Round: 3 Pick: 94), RB Will Shipley (Round: 4 Pick: 127), WR Ainias Smith (Round: 5 Pick: 152), LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Round: 5 Pick: 155), IOL Trevor Keegan (Round: 5 Pick: 172), WR Johnny Wilson (Round: 6 Pick: 185), IOL Dylan McMahon (Round: 6 Pick: 190)

Howie Roseman did Howie Roseman things once again in the draft. Philadelphia needed to improve its secondary and it did that by selecting Mitchell and DeJean, who were two of the top cornerbacks in this draft class. Hunt could turn into an adequate replacement for Haason Reddick. Getting Smith, Trotter, and Keegan in the fifth round was great value, too.

Grade: A

Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers
Selections: T Troy Fautanu (Round: 1 Pick: 20), IOL Zach Frazier (Round: 2 Pick: 51), WR Roman Wilson (Round: 3 Pick: 84), LB Payton Wilson (Round: 3 Pick: 98), IOL Mason McCormick (Round: 4 Pick: 119), DL Logan Lee (Round: 6 Pick: 178), CB Ryan Watts (Round: 6 Pick: 195)

I thought Pittsburgh nailed the draft despite not having that many picks. The Steelers needed to improve their offensive line and they drafted three prospects that might start right away in Fautanu, Frazier, and McCormick. Roman Wilson and Payton Wilson filled needs on Pittsburgh’s roster and were great value in the third round. This is back-to-back great drafts by Omar Khan.

Grade: A

Florida Gators wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (1) runs with the ball away from Florida Gators cornerback Aaron Gates (13) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco 49ers
Selections: WR Ricky Pearsall (Round: 1 Pick: 31), CB Renardo Green (Round: 2 Pick: 64), IOL Dominick Puni (Round: 3 Pick: 86), S Malik Mustapha (Round: 4 Pick: 124), RB Isaac Guerendo (Round: 4 Pick: 129), WR Jacob Cowing (Round: 4 Pick: 135), IOL Jarrett Kingston (Round: 6 Pick: 215), LB Tatum Bethune (Round: 7 Pick: 251)

With the uncertainty surrounding Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, it makes sense for San Francisco to draft Pearsall and Cowing. The 49ers needed a cornerback opposite of Charvarius Ward and Green can fill that role. Mustapha might be a hidden gem. Guerendo will be a great pair with Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco did much better in the draft this year than it did last year.

Grade: B

Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates after a sack against TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ricardo B. Brazziell-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle Seahawks
Selections: DL Byron Murphy II (Round: 1 Pick: 16), IOL Christian Haynes (Round: 3 Pick: 81), LB Tyrice Knight (Round: 4 Pick: 118), TE AJ Barner (Round: 4 Pick: 121), CB Nehemiah Pritchett (Round: 5 Pick: 136), IOL Sataoa Laumea (Round: 6 Pick: 179), CB D.J. James (Round: 6 Pick: 192), T Michael Jerrell (Round: 6 Pick: 207)

Seattle addressed two of its biggest needs with its first two picks. Murphy will be a difference maker in the interior of the defensive line and Haynes will start right away at guard. Barner will be a good blocking tight end, too. However, I’m not crazy about the rest of the Seahawks’ draft. I don’t think the value was there for Knight. I also don’t like that Seattle neglected an edge rusher.

Grade: B

Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton gets lined up before a play. Mandatory credit: Duke Athletics

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Selections: IOL Graham Barton (Round: 1 Pick: 26), Edge Chris Braswell (Round: 2 Pick: 57), S Tykee Smith (Round: 3 Pick: 89), WR Jalen McMillan (Round: 3 Pick: 92), RB Bucky Irving (Round: 4 Pick: 125), IOL Elijah Klein (Round: 6 Pick: 220), TE Devin Culp (Round: 7 Pick: 246)

Teams typically don’t draft centers in the first round, but it makes sense for Tampa Bay after losing Ryan Jensen this offseason. Braswell will make provide depth at edge rusher, which was needed. Smith, McMillan, and Irving are good players that fill both immediate and future roster needs. I think Jason Licht did a good job, but I’m surprised that he neglected the cornerback position.

Grade: B+

Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman JC Latham poses after being selected by the Tennessee Titans as the No. 7 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans
Selections: T JC Latham (Round: 1 Pick: 7), DL T’Vondre Sweat (Round: 2 Pick: 38), LB Cedric Gray (Round: 4 Pick: 106), CB Jarvis Brownlee (Round: 5 Pick: 146), WR Jha’Quan Jackson (Round: 6 Pick: 182), S James Williams (Round: 7 Pick: 242), Edge Jaylen Harrell (Round: 7 Pick: 252)

Despite having a top 10 pick, I don’t like what Tennessee did this past weekend. Latham felt like a reach in the top 10, and he’s likely going to be a guard or right tackle in the NFL. There were a ton of red flags surrounding Sweat throughout the draft process and the value wasn’t there to pick him early in the second round. I think the Titans are the biggest loser of the draft.

Grade: C-

LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Washington Commanders as the No. 2 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Commanders
Selections: QB Jayden Daniels (Round: 1 Pick: 2), DL Jer’Zhan Newton (Round: 2 Pick: 36), CB Mike Sainristil (Round: 2 Pick: 50), TE Ben Sinnott (Round: 2 Pick: 53), IOL Brandon Coleman (Round: 3 Pick: 67), WR Luke McCaffrey (Round: 3 Pick: 100), LB Jordan Magee (Round: 5 Pick: 139), S Dominique Hampton (Round: 5 Pick: 161), Edge Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Round: 7 Pick: 222)

I thought this was a fine draft by Washington, but I didn’t think it was great. Daniels was my least favorite quarterback in this draft class. Sinnott is probably more of an H-back than a tight end, and the value wasn’t great for him. I really like the Newton and Sainristil selections, though. I’m also surprised that the Commanders didn’t use more draft capital to get better in the trenches.

Grade: B

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Final 2024 NFL mock draft: Rounds 1-3

April 25, 2024April 25, 2024Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“The board is set…the pieces are moving”

— Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003)

The NFL equivalent to Christmas Day is upon us. I couldn’t be more excited about it. For the first time in years, I’m not stressed about what Green Bay plans to do in the draft. With the Packers being so young, they could go in a variety of different directions and whoever they pick will likely make an impact.

This is easily the best draft class that we’ve seen in the last three or four years. It’s loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball, specifically at quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line. That’s not to say that there aren’t good defensive players in this draft class. I think that side of the ball is deep at cornerback and interior defensive line. If your team is looking for a good linebacker, safety, edge rusher, tight end, or running back, it’ll have to draft one early because there’s not much depth at those positions.

There’s still so much uncertainty with what’s going to happen in the first round when it comes to the quarterback position. I feel strongly about which quarterback Chicago will draft with the No. 1 overall pick, but I don’t know about the rest. Does Minnesota or the Giants move up for a quarterback, or another team that we’re not anticipating? There will be no shortage of entertainment on that front. I’m pretty confident that this draft will break the record for most offensive players taken in the first round, which is currently 19.

I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t change this mock draft at least twice this week. My mock draft last year was the best I’ve ever filled out, with seven correct picks. There’s a lot of pressure for me to replicate that success. Remember, this is what I think the teams will do not what I’d do. I also don’t incorporate trades in my mock drafts.

First round:

Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Utah Utes in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) — QB Caleb Williams, USC

All signs are pointing to Chicago using this pick on Williams. He’s currently a heavy favorite (-20000) to be the No. 1 overall pick. There’s lot to like about Williams. He’s the best quarterback prospect to come through the draft since Trevor Lawrence, and has the highest ceiling of the prospects at the position in this draft class. Williams can also start right away for the Bears.

LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) looks to pass the ball during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

2. Washington Commanders (4-13) — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

It’s clear that Washington is picking a quarterback with this pick. I’m just not convinced which one. I’m giving the nod to Daniels because the odds have continued to shift in his favor the closer we get to the draft. I don’t think Daniels has a particularly high ceiling, but he’s a dynamic playmaker. That’s something that Washington hasn’t had at the position since the Robert Griffin III era.

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first half at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

3. New England Patriots (4-13) — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

It seems like New England wants to trade out of this pick. I’m not convinced that it’ll be able to do that, though. If the Patriots stay, I think they have to take a quarterback. New England can’t go into the season with just Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe. Drafting Maye makes too much sense. I think he might have the second-highest ceiling of the quarterback prospects in this draft class.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) scores a touchdown against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the fourth quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Arizona will likely listen to trade offers, but I doubt it’ll get out of this pick. The Cardinals moved on from Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore this offseason, which tells me that they’re honing in on Harrison. He’s considered to be the best wide receiver prospect to come through the draft since Ja’Marr Chase. I think Harrison would make an immediate impact as a rookie.

Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman J.C. Latham (65) blocks against the Miami Hurricanes at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — T JC Latham, Alabama

I realize that the Chargers need pass catchers, but I think drafting one this early goes against Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz’s DNA. If the Chargers keep this pick, I fully expect them to draft an offensive lineman. However, I think it’ll be Latham. He’s a better fit for right tackle, which is what the Chargers need. Latham’s play style is also perfect for what Harbaugh likes to do offensively.

LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) hauls in a 46 yard pass for a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

6. New York Giants (6-11) — WR Malik Nabers, LSU

I wouldn’t rule out the Giants trading up for a quarterback. That buzz has only picked up recently, but I need to see it happen. The Giants could use a No. 1 pass catcher, which they haven’t had since trading away Odell Beckham Jr. in 2019. Nabers hasn’t turned 21 yet, so it might take him time to develop. However, Nabers has a high ceiling and could be a great weapon for the Giants.

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

If this is the way the board falls, I don’t think Tennessee will waste any time getting this pick into commissioner Roger Goodell. The Titans have regressed along the offensive line in recent years and could really use a left tackle. Alt is considered the best offensive lineman in this draft class and can start right away at left tackle. I think this is a no-brainer decision for Tennessee.

Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) celebrates after a sack against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

Atlanta has ranked in the bottom half of the league in sacks and/or pressure rate for the last few years. It seems like the Falcons are finally going to use a first-round pick to bolster their pass rush, which they haven’t done since 2017. It’s unclear which pass rusher Atlanta will target with this pick, but I think it’ll be Turner. He’s a better fit for Raheem Morris’ defensive scheme.

9. Chicago Bears (7-10) — DL Byron Murphy II, Texas

I actually think Chicago could go Murphy even if one of the top three pass catchers is still on the board. The Bears need more difference makers along their defensive front besides Montez Sweat, specifically in the interior. Murphy is a little undersized (6’0″, 297 pounds), but he’s twitchy and could be a problem as a pass rusher. Murphy could also contribute immediately in Chicago.

Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) signals for a first down after catching a pass against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

10. New York Jets (7-10) — WR Rome Odunze, Washington

If you believe the article by The Athletic that Aaron Rodgers is the De facto general manager of the Jets, I think you can expect this pick to be used on a pass catcher. I have a difficult time believing the Jets will pass on Odunze. They don’t have many quality perimeter wide receivers besides Mike Williams, who can’t stay healthy. Having Odunze will open up the Jets’ passing attack.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) — QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan

It’s clear that Minnesota is targeting a quarterback early in the draft. After acquiring Houston’s first-round pick, I expect the Vikings to use that extra capital to trade up to get their next long-term starter. I think McCarthy will be their choice. He’s a project that will have to sit for one season (maybe even two), but the Vikings seem to like him a lot. I think this is a good spot for McCarthy.

12. Denver Broncos (8-9) — QB Bo Nix, Oregon

The acquisition of Zach Wilson doesn’t change my opinion of Denver’s quarterback situation. The Broncos still don’t have a starter, and are basically in a position where they have to draft one with this pick. If not, Denver will have to wait until the third round, which I don’t see happening. Nix makes the most sense for the Broncos. He’d be a great fit in Sean Payton’s offense.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

There have been rumors the last few weeks that Las Vegas has been eyeballing a quarterback, allegedly even trying to trade up to No. 2 to pick one. If this is the way the board falls, I think the Raiders would take Penix. He has the physical traits to succeed at the next level. The odds have also steadily shifted in Penix’s favor recently for him to be drafted in the first round.

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — T Olu Fashanu, Penn State

New Orleans typically doesn’t look to the future when it comes to roster needs. I expect it to draft its most immediate need with this pick, which is offensive tackle. Andrus Peat remains a free agent, Ryan Ramczyk is dealing with a knee injury, and Trevor Penning has struggled since entering the NFL. Fashanu can play immediately and has a lot of experience playing left tackle.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

This isn’t an immediate need for Indianapolis, but it’s been linked to pass catchers all offseason. If Bowers falls this far, I doubt the Colts will pass on him. Bowers is a versatile player and is also an effective blocker. Having him will give Indianapolis a presence in the middle of the field that it probably hasn’t had since Coby Fleener. This will really help Anthony Richardson’s development.

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

The interior of Seattle’s offensive line was already a need prior to Damien Lewis leaving during free agency. The Seahawks currently have four guards on their roster that had an average Pro Football Focus grade of just 51.1 last year, which is well below average. Drafting Fuaga makes too much sense for Seattle. He can easily slide inside to guard and contribute immediately.

Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (27) breaks up a pass intended for Miami (OH) Redhawks wide receiver Gage Larvadain (10) in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) — CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

Jacksonville bolstered its defensive front this offseason by extending Josh Allen and acquiring Arik Armstead. That makes me think that the Jaguars will target a cornerback with this pick. Jacksonville doesn’t really have a playmaker in its secondary besides Tyson Campbell. Mitchell might need some time to develop, but his physical traits typically translate well to the NFL.

Illinois Fighting Illini defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton (4) tackles Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) — DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

I’m to the point that I need to see Cincinnati draft an offensive lineman in the first round. After losing D.J. Reader this offseason, I think the Bengals might prioritize the interior defensive line with this pick. Newton is an underrated prospect. He can be a force against the run and pass. I’m not confident that Newton will be taken in the top 20, but Cincinnati could really use him.

Washington State Cougars running back Nakia Watson (25) is brought down by UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Carl Jones Jr. (4) and defensive lineman Laiatu Latu (15) during the second half at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA

The Rams have to address their defensive front in the draft. They already didn’t have much of a pass rush and Aaron Donald retired this offseason. I’m not convinced that Latu falls this far, but I think the Rams will take him with this pick if he’s still on the board. Latu (6’5”, 265 pounds) is more of a prototypical edge rusher. He also would likely be a top 10 pick if he didn’t have medical concerns.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) — T Troy Fautanu, Washington

I think Pittsburgh has something in Broderick Jones, who was the organization’s first-round pick last year. The Steelers could still use more help along their offensive line, and it feels like that’s the position they’ll target with this pick. It’s unclear if Fautanu is a tackle or guard, but he’s versatile enough to play both positions. Either way, he’ll likely help Pittsburgh in some capacity.

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6) — T Amarius Mims, Georgia

Miami’s offensive line already wasn’t great and it took a hit this offseason after losing Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams is still a free agent. Plus, Terron Armstead has struggled to stay healthy and even flirted with retirement. The Dolphins have to beef up their offensive line. Mims can play left or right tackle and he could learn behind Armstead. This is a good spot for Mims.

Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold (3) defends against a pass intended for Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Ainias Smith (0) during the fourth quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) — CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

Philadelphia has to get younger at the cornerback position. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both well into their 30s. Plus, one of the reasons why the Eagles struggled so much defensively last year was because their secondary was porous. Arnold might have the best coverage skills of the cornerbacks in this draft class. GM Howie Roseman also likes to draft players from the SEC.

23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland via Houston) — Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

I genuinely have no idea what Minnesota will do if it keeps this pick, but it could afford to bolster its pass rush. Verse fills that need and he’s easily the best player still on the board. I think Verse is a very underrated prospect, and I’ll be surprised if he ends up falling this far. Having Verse, Jonathan Greenard, and Andrew Van Ginkel will give the Vikings plenty of depth coming off the edge.

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) — T Graham Barton, Duke

Dallas could go in several different directions with this pick. I keep going back to offensive line, which was already a need even before left tackle Tyron Smith signed with the Jets during free agency. The Cowboys need to add to the position. I think they could have their eyes on a player like Barton, who’s versatile enough to play tackle or guard. Dallas could really use him up front.

Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Cooper DeJean (3) returns a punt against the Western Michigan Broncos during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) — CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

I’m not sure there’s a player in this draft class that’s a better fit for Green Bay than DeJean. The Packers need help in the secondary and he’s versatile enough to play multiple positions. DeJean also checks Green Bay’s boxes when it comes to athleticism and physical traits, and he’s from the Midwest. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if GM Brian Gutekunst moves up to get DeJean.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) — Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State

I don’t know if Robinson will be who Tampa Bay selects with this pick. However, he tested so well that I’m pretty confident that he’ll be taken in the first round. I just don’t know where. Tampa Bay could use more pass rushers. The Buccaneers moved on from Shaquil Barrett this offseason, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t been the player they thought he’d be. This is a good landing spot for Robinson.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) — CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

If the board falls this way, I expect Arizona to draft the best player available. I think that’s Wiggins right now. He also fills a need for the Cardinals, who need a playmaker at cornerback. I have reservations about Wiggins because of his weight (173 pounds). However, Wiggins has excellent coverage skills and I think it’s likely that a team takes a chance on him in the first round.

LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Army Black Knights defensive back Cameron Jones (10) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6) — WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

I’ll be surprised if Buffalo doesn’t use this pick on a wide receiver. The Bills don’t have many playmakers at the position after moving on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. Plus, Thomas is easily the best player still on the board. I doubt he’ll end up falling this far, but I’m not sure which team will draft him. Thomas would likely be the immediate No. 1 receiver in Buffalo’s offense.

Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry (1) celebrates after a missed field goal by LSU at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

29. Detroit Lions (12-5) — CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

Don’t be surprised if Detroit trades out of this pick. However, I don’t think the Lions will pass on a player like McKinstry. Detroit struggled to defend the pass last year. The Lions improved in that area after acquiring Carlton Davis, but there’s more work to be done. I don’t know if Detroit will consider McKinstry a fit, but he has incredible instincts and would pair well with Davis.

Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches a ball for a touchdown against Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 9, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Mandatory Credit: Aaron E. Martinez-USA TODAY NETWORK

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) — WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas

Baltimore is currently favored to pick an offensive lineman with its first pick, but I don’t know if it can pass on Mitchell. I feel strongly that he’ll be picked in the first round after the way he tested. The Ravens don’t have a perimeter wide receiver on their roster. With Mitchell on the outside, and Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers up the seam, Baltimore’s passing attack could open up.

31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

Since 2014, there have been five wide receivers, including Worthy, to run a sub-4.27 40-yard dash. Three of them were picked in the first round. Worthy broke the 40-yard dash record at the combine, so I feel strongly that he’ll be selected in the first round. I just don’t know where. If the rumors are true that San Francisco could trade Brandon Aiyuk, this becomes a possible spot for Worthy.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) — T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

The narrative being pushed is that Kansas City will target a wide receiver with this pick. I’ll believe it when I see it. The Chiefs must continue to keep Patrick Mahomes upright, and they have a glaring hole at left tackle that needs to be filled. Guyton is a bit of a project and will need some time to develop, but he’s worth the risk. Drafting him at this point is also pretty good value.

Second round:

Pick	Player
33. Carolina Panthers (2-15)	WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina
34. New England Patriots	WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
35. Arizona Cardinals	IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
36. Washington Commanders	T Jordan Morgan, Arizona
37. Los Angeles Chargers	WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
38. Tennessee Titans	WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
39. Carolina Panthers (from New York Giants)	Edge Darius Robinson, Missouri
40. Washington Commanders (from Chicago)	Edge Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan
41. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets)	T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
42. Houston Texans (from Minnesota)	DL Braden Fiske, Florida State
43. Atlanta Falcons	CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
44. Las Vegas Raiders	T Patrick Paul, Houston
45. New Orleans Saints (from Denver)	DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan
46. Indianapolis Colts	CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
47. New York Giants (from Seattle)	S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
48. Jacksonville Jaguars	WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
49. Cincinnati Bengals	T Roger Rosengarten, Washington
50. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)	WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
51. Pittsburgh Steelers	IOL Zach Frazier, West Virginia
52. Los Angeles Rams	QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
53. Philadelphia Eagles	T Kiran Amegadjie, Yale
54. Cleveland Browns (11-6)	DL Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State
55. Miami Dolphins	DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson
56. Dallas Cowboys	LB Payton Wilson, NC State
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CB TJ Tampa, Iowa State
58. Green Bay Packers	LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M
59. Houston Texans (10-7)	LB Junior Colson, Michigan
60. Buffalo Bills	CB Andru Phillips, Kentucky
61. Detroit Lions	Edge Adisa Isaac, Penn State
62. Baltimore Ravens	IOL Christian Haynes, UConn
63. San Francisco 49ers	IOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
64. Kansas City Chiefs	WR Roman Wilson, Michigan

Kansas State Wildcats tight end Ben Sinnott (34) runs with the ball against Missouri Tigers linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper (8) during the first half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Third round:

Pick	Player
65. Carolina Panthers	TE Ben Sinnott, Kansas State
66. Arizona Cardinals	DL T’Vondre Sweat, Texas
67. Washington Commanders	S Javon Bullard, Georgia
68. New England Patriots	T Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
69. Los Angeles Chargers	RB Blake Corum, Michigan
70. New York Giants	DL Brandon Dorlus, Oregon
71. Arizona Cardinals (from Tennessee)	IOL Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia
72. New York Jets	T Brandon Coleman, TCU
73. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota)	IOL Mason McCormick, South Dakota State
74. Atlanta Falcons	WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State
75. Chicago Bears	WR Jermaine Burton, Alabama
76. Denver Broncos	WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
77. Las Vegas Raiders	CB Max Melton, Rutgers
78. Washington Commanders (from Seattle)	TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas
79. Atlanta Falcons (from Jacksonville)	DL Leonard Taylor III, Miami
80. Cincinnati Bengals	CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon
81. Seattle Seahawks (from New Orleans via Denver)	S Jaden Hicks, Washington State
82. Indianapolis Colts	WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
83. Los Angeles Rams	CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia
84. Pittsburgh Steelers	WR Javon Baker, UCF
85. Cleveland Browns	LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson
Miami Dolphins	Pick Forfeited
86. Houston Texans (from Philadelphia)	WR Jalen McMillan, Washington
87. Dallas Cowboys	RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas
88. Green Bay Packers	IOL Trevor Keegan, Michigan
89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	IOL Christian Mahogany, Boston College
90. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)	Edge Jonah Elliss, Utah
91. Green Bay Packers (from Buffalo)	S Cole Bishop, Utah
92. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Detroit)	RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
93. Baltimore Ravens	Edge Chris Braswell, Alabama
94. San Francisco 49ers	T Matt Goncalves, Pitt
95. Kansas City Chiefs	WR Malik Washington, Virginia
96. Jacksonville Jaguars (compensatory pick)	Edge Austin Booker, Kansas
97. Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory pick)	TE Cade Stover, Ohio State
98. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory pick; from Philadelphia)	CB Renardo Green, Florida State
99. Los Angeles Rams (Resolution JC-2A pick)	T Dominick Puni, Kansas
100. Washington Commanders (Resolution JC-2A pick; from San Francisco)	Edge Xavier Thomas, Clemson

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Three-round 2024 NFL mock draft after free agency

April 1, 2024March 31, 2024Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Close your eyes and pretend it’s all a bad dream. That’s how I get by.”

— Captain Jack Sparrow, “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (2007)

It feels like this offseason has flown by. Maybe it’s because I’ve had other adult duties or because it’s been a relatively uneventful offseason. Regardless, it’s hard to believe that we’re a little over three weeks removed from the start of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Just because it was a relatively uneventful offseason doesn’t mean that there weren’t any moves made. We saw plenty of player movement and we now have an understanding of which positions teams might be targeting in the draft. That’s why I like to publish a mock draft around this time, even though I think I’m a little late with it this year, but it could also just be the way the calendar fell.

I think the biggest storylines heading into this draft aren’t necessarily involving players or positions, but the uncertainty at the top of the draft board. With this being a very good quarterback draft class, I feel like you’ve seen more smokescreens the last few weeks than we’ve seen in recent years. Who knows what to believe? There are also so many questions still to be answered in regards to potential trades: Which team, if any, in the top three will trade back? What is Minnesota’s plan? Is Denver going to remain idle?

I genuinely don’t think we’ll get any answers to those questions before April 25. I think teams want to keep their cards close to their chest, which makes this draft more unpredictable than we’re used to seeing. It’s hard to tell what the board will look like until we get some answers, which is maddening for someone like me who enjoys doing mock drafts. I gave it my best shot, though.

First round:

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) — QB Caleb Williams, USC

Chicago might’ve entertained trade offers for this pick earlier this offseason, but I doubt that’s the case now. The Bears are likely to draft Williams, especially after they traded Justin Fields. Chicago needs to hit the reset button at quarterback, so picking Williams makes too much sense. He’s arguably the best quarterback prospect to come through the draft in years.

2. Washington Commanders (4-13) — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

I wouldn’t rule out Washington trading back if it can’t get Williams, but I doubt that happens. The Commanders traded away Sam Howell, which means their quarterback room is down to Marcus Mariota and Jake Fromm. Washington must add to that position in the draft. Daniels has emerged as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft class. I think he could start right away.

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

3. New England Patriots (4-13) — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

Of the teams with a top three pick, I think New England is the most likely to trade back. I don’t know if the Patriots are that high on these quarterbacks and they might choose to round out their roster. However, New England can’t go into this season without a long-term answer at quarterback. The Patriots have to look to the future at the position and Maye is the best option on the board.

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Don’t rule out Arizona trading out of this pick. I doubt the Cardinals want to draft a wide receiver this high. They’d probably prefer to acquire more picks instead. If Arizona can’t get the value it wants, though, it’s likely picking Harrison. Many draft analysts consider him to be the best prospect in this draft class. Harrison would make an immediate impact with the Cardinals.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — WR Malik Nabers, LSU

I still expect the Chargers to trade out of this pick. If they don’t, I think they’ll use it on a wide receiver. The Chargers overhauled the position by moving on from Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. They really need add a playmaker for Justin Herbert. I don’t know if they can trust Quentin Johnston to step up. Nabers not only fills that need, but he’s arguably the best player on the board.

6. New York Giants (6-11) — WR Rome Odunze, Washington

I actually think the Giants could draft a quarterback with this pick. I think the organization wants to move on from Daniel Jones. If the Giants don’t pull the trigger on a quarterback, which I don’t expect to happen right now, I think they’ll target a pass catcher. Drafting Odunze makes too much sense. The Giants could use someone of his size (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) on the perimeter.

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

After signing Calvin Ridley, I think that rules out Tennessee using this pick on a pass catcher. You just don’t use a top 10 pick on a fourth wide receiver. I expect the Titans to beef up their offensive line, which has been a problem the last few years, by picking Alt. He’s a highly regarded prospect and could start right away at left tackle for Tennessee. He’ll help keep Will Levis upright.

Texas Longhorns tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (0) is tackled by Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner (15) during the game at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 9, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Mandatory Credit: Aaron E. Martinez-USA TODAY NETWORK

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

Atlanta might end up being the only team in the top 10 to target a defensive player. The Falcons need to bolster their pass rush, which has struggled getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks for years. I think Atlanta will value Turner more than the other edge rushers in this draft class because of his combination of twitch and speed. He’ll make an impact in the Falcons’ defense.

9. Chicago Bears (7-10) — WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

This might be considered a bit of a reach, but I think Chicago would pull the trigger on a player like Thomas. The Bears just lost Darnell Mooney, who was their best deep threat, this offseason. Thomas was one of the fastest players at the combine and could replace Mooney very well as the vertical playmaker in Chicago’s offense. He’d also make a nice complement to Allen and D.J. Moore.

10. New York Jets (7-10) — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

The Jets have done a great job patching up their offensive line this offseason after signing Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. I doubt the Jets are done up front, but they can draft best player available with this pick. Bowers isn’t only the best player still on the board, but he fills a need. The Jets lack a tight end that can stretch opposing defenses, so Bowers would be a great addition.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) — QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan

With Kirk Cousins gone, Minnesota has no choice but to draft a quarterback in the first round. Sam Darnold isn’t the long-term option. With the way the Vikings have operated recently, I think they’re planning to trade up to get their guy. All reports indicate that Minnesota is very high on McCarthy. He’s more of a project than a prospect, but he has the traits to be successful in the NFL.

12. Denver Broncos (8-9) — QB Bo Nix, Oregon

Like Minnesota, Denver pretty much has to draft a quarterback in the first round. The Broncos can’t go into the season with Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci as the only options in their quarterback room. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Denver trading up, but I think Nix is a great fit with this team. He’s a very accurate passer, which will work well Sean Payton’s offense.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

Las Vegas could go in a variety of different directions with this pick, but I think it’ll address the offensive line. The Raiders don’t have many difference makers up front besides left tackle Kolton Miller, and there’s a big hole on the right side of their offensive line. I think Fuaga would be a great addition for Las Vegas. He could make an immediate impact at either right tackle or right guard.

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

New Orleans is more likely to address immediate needs instead of looking to the future at certain positions (i.e. quarterback). The biggest need for the Saints is likely addressing the offensive line, specifically the tackle position. I don’t think New Orleans can go into this season with Trevor Penning as its starting left tackle. That’s why drafting Fashanu makes the most sense for the Saints.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

After signing Michael Pittman Jr. to an extension, and with Bowers off the board, I think Indianapolis will add to its secondary with this pick. The Colts haven’t had a great cornerback since Vontae Davis. Mitchell’s stock has skyrocketed after the way he performed at the Senior Bowl and combine. Mitchell would make an immediate impact in Indianapolis.

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — T Troy Fautanu, Washington

Seattle still has work to do on its offensive line, specifically in the interior. The Seahawks have only five interior offensive linemen currently on their roster, and they have a combined 16 starts between them. They have to improve that area before the season starts. Fautanu is athletic enough to be a tackle in the NFL, but he could also slide inside and make an immediate impact at guard.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) — CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

After franchise tagging Josh Allen and signing Arik Armstead, Jacksonville now seems to be prioritizing its secondary early in the draft. The Jaguars struggled against the pass and could use a cornerback opposite of Tyson Campbell. Arnold has the skillset to develop into the best cornerback out of this draft class. I think he’d make a great addition to Jacksonville’s secondary.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) — T JC Latham, Alabama

Cincinnati has struggled to keep Joe Burrow upright since he entered the league. It feels like it’s time for the Bengals to use an early draft pick on an offensive lineman, especially after losing right tackle Jonah Williams during free agency. I think Cincinnati would be a great fit for Latham, who played right tackle in college. He could make an immediate impact in the Bengals’ offense.

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA

After Aaron Donald’s retirement, I expect the Rams to bolster their defensive front. They already needed to improve their pass rush even before Donald’s retirement, which now only prioritizes that need. If not for his injury history, Latu might be considered the top edge rusher in this draft class. He has a deep set of pass rush moves that should help him make an impact at the next level.

Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) — IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

Pittsburgh must improve its offensive line, which has been one of the worst in the NFL for the last few seasons. The Steelers drafted a long-term tackle in Broderick Jones last year, so it couldn’t hurt for them to prioritize the interior. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a great center since Maurkice Pouncey. Powers-Johnson could be a long-term center and help pave the way for the Steelers’ run game.

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6) — T Amarius Mims, Georgia

Miami dodged a bullet with Terron Armstead electing to return this year. That shouldn’t prevent the Dolphins from looking ahead at the left tackle position, though. Armstead hasn’t exactly been reliable the last few years. Mims might need a “redshirt year” to transition to the NFL, but he’s capable of being a long-term left tackle. I doubt Miami can afford to pass on a player like Mims.

22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) — CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

Philadelphia’s defensive issues last year mostly came against the pass. Darius Slay and James Bradberry will be a combined 64 years old this season, and no one knows what the Eagles have in Josh Jobe, Eli Ricks, or Kelee Ringo. That’s why I think Philadelphia needs to use a premium pick on a cornerback. Wiggins is undersized (173 pounds), but that hasn’t stopped Howie Roseman in the past.

23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland via Houston) — Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

If Minnesota keeps this pick, and the board falls this way, I don’t know if it can pass on Verse. He’s considered one of the top edge rushers in this draft class. I don’t think the Vikings should be done at the position just because they acquired Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel this offseason. Adding Verse would give Minnesota a great pass rush.

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) — T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

Offensive tackle was a need for Dallas even before it lost Smith this offseason. Finding his replacement becomes the top priority for the Cowboys. Their offensive line doesn’t look great right now. They’ll have a chance to get a good tackle with this pick, too. Like Mims, it might take Guyton some time to adjust to the NFL, but he has the traits to be a long-term left tackle.

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) — T Graham Barton, Duke

The closer we get to the draft, the more I think Green Bay will target an offensive lineman with this pick. The Packers might have two solid tackles in Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom, but they need depth at the position after moving on from David Bakhtiari. Barton feels like Green Bay’s type of player. Barton fits the size and athletic thresholds that the Packers value.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) — Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State

Tampa Bay’s pass rush has declined since 2020, and it got worse after moving on from Shaquil Barrett. Yaya Diaby showed promise as a rookie, but Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t been the player that the Buccaneers thought they were getting. Tampa Bay could use Robinson. I still think he’ll be a first-round pick after the way Robinson performed at the combine.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) — DL Byron Murphy II, Texas

Arizona’s defensive front leaves a lot to be desired, particularly in the interior. The Cardinals don’t have a difference maker, even after signing Justin Jones this offseason. If Murphy is still on the board, I think Arizona would pick him and rush the card in to commissioner Roger Goodell. Murphy is a great fit for the Cardinals’ defense and would likely make an immediate impact.

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6) — WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

You can’t teach speed. That’s I’m expecting Worthy to be a first-round pick after breaking the 40-yard dash record at the combine. I think the most likely team to draft him is Buffalo, which needs to revamp its wide receiver room after losing Gabe Davis and the drama surrounding Stefan Diggs. Worthy is a vertical playmaker that would complement Josh Allen’s arm strength very well.

29. Detroit Lions (12-5) — CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

Detroit has done a great job revamping its secondary this offseason after acquiring Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson. There’s still work to do, though. That’s why drafting DeJean makes sense for the Lions. He’s a versatile defensive back that can play either cornerback or safety, and could likely contribute right away. Figure out which position DeJean will play at a later date.

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) — WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas

After releasing Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore needs to add another pass catcher to its offense. Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman aren’t difference makers. That leaves only Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. That’s not enough. Mitchell would be a great addition to Baltimore’s offense. Having his size (6-foot-2, 205 pounds) on the perimeter would be beneficial to the Ravens’ passing attack.

31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

San Francisco’s defensive front isn’t as menacing as it used to be. That’s especially true now that the 49ers have moved on from Armstead. They could use help in the interior of their defensive front, which is why Newton would be a great addition. He’s arguably the most complete prospect at the position in this draft class. Newton will make an impact against both the run and pass.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) — T Jordan Morgan, Arizona

Contrary to the pundits, I doubt Kansas City uses this pick on a pass catcher. The Chiefs haven’t used a first-round pick on one since Andy Reid got there in 2013. Instead, I think Kansas City will try to find a left tackle of the future. Morgan might end up at guard one day, but he’s athletic enough to start his career at tackle. Keeping Patrick Mahomes upright should be the top priority.

Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) runs against Missouri Tigers defensive back Tre’Vez Johnson (4) after a catch during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Second round:

Pick	Player
33. Carolina Panthers (2-15)	WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
34. New England Patriots	IOL Zach Frazier, West Virginia
35. Arizona Cardinals	CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
36. Washington Commanders	Edge Darius Robinson, Missouri
37. Los Angeles Chargers	CB TJ Tampa, Iowa State
38. Tennessee Titans	Edge Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan
39. Carolina Panthers (from New York Giants)	WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
40. Washington Commanders (from Chicago)	T Patrick Paul, Houston
41. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets)	LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M
42. Houston Texans (from Minnesota)	DL Braden Fiske, Florida State
43. Atlanta Falcons	CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
44. Las Vegas Raiders	QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
45. New Orleans Saints (from Denver)	CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia
46. Indianapolis Colts	DL T’Vondre Sweat, Texas
47. New York Giants (from Seattle)	S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
48. Jacksonville Jaguars	WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
49. Cincinnati Bengals	TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas
50. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)	T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
51. Pittsburgh Steelers	CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
52. Los Angeles Rams	DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan
53. Philadelphia Eagles	WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
54. Cleveland Browns (11-6)	LB Payton Wilson, NC State
55. Miami Dolphins	IOL Christian Haynes, UConn
56. Dallas Cowboys	RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	IOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
58. Green Bay Packers	S Jaden Hicks, Washington State
59. Houston Texans (10-7)	T Dominick Puni, Kansas
60. Buffalo Bills	S Javon Bullard, Georgia
61. Detroit Lions	WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
62. Baltimore Ravens	LB Junior Colson, Michigan
63. San Francisco 49ers	T Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
64. Kansas City Chiefs	WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina

Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Chris Braswell (41) pressures Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

Third round:

Pick	Player
65. Carolina Panthers	Edge Chris Braswell, Alabama
66. Arizona Cardinals	Edge Jonah Elliss, Utah
67. Washington Commanders	Edge Bralen Trice, Washington
68. New England Patriots	WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
69. Los Angeles Chargers	DL Michael Hall, Ohio State
70. New York Giants	RB Trey Benson, Florida State
71. Arizona Cardinals (from Tennessee)	LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson
72. New York Jets	T Kiran Amegadjie, Yale
73. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota)	IOL Zak Zinter, Michigan
74. Atlanta Falcons	Edge Adisa Isaac, Penn State
75. Chicago Bears	Edge Mo Kamara, Colorado State
76. Denver Broncos	DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson
77. Las Vegas Raiders	CB Max Melton, Rutgers
78. Washington Commanders (from Seattle)	WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
79. Atlanta Falcons (from Jacksonville)	WR Jermaine Burton, Alabama
80. Cincinnati Bengals	DL Maason Smith, LSU
81. Seattle Seahawks (from New Orleans via Denver)	Edge Brandon Dorlus, Oregon
82. Indianapolis Colts	TE Cade Stover, Ohio State
83. Los Angeles Rams	CB Kris Abrams Draine, Missouri
84. Pittsburgh Steelers	WR Javon Baker, UCF
85. Cleveland Browns	WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville
Miami Dolphins	Pick Forfeited
86. Houston Texans (from Philadelphia)	CB DJ James, Auburn
87. Dallas Cowboys	DL DeWayne Carter, Duke
88. Green Bay Packers	CB Cam Hart, Notre Dame
89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
90. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)	WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
91. Green Bay Packers (from Buffalo)	CB Jarrian Jones, Florida State
92. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Detroit)	S Kamren Kinchens, Miami
93. Baltimore Ravens	CB Kamal Hadden, Tennessee
94. San Francisco 49ers	CB Andru Phillips, Kentucky
95. Kansas City Chiefs	CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon
96. Jacksonville Jaguars (compensatory pick)	Edge Austin Booker, Kansas
97. Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory pick)	CB Caelen Carson, Wake Forest
98. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory pick; from Philadelphia)	T Roger Rosengarten, Washington
99. Los Angeles Rams (Resolution JC-2A pick)	QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
100. Washington Commanders (Resolution JC-2A pick; from San Francisco)	IOL Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia

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2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

March 19, 2024March 19, 2024Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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Three-round 2024 NFL mock draft after the postseason

February 12, 2024February 12, 2024Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“I’ve been poor my whole life, like a disease passing from generation to generation. But not my boys, not anymore.”

— Toby Howard, “Hell or High Water” (2016)

With Super Bowl LVIII being played last night, and the 2023 season now in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look ahead to the 2024 season. Every team is focused on the offseason, specifically the NFL draft. This will be the first of three three-round mock drafts that I’ll publish on this blog until the end of April. My readers should know that this has become an annual thing.

This is probably the best draft class since 2020. It’s loaded with offensive talent at the top of the board, especially at the quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive tackle positions. There will be plenty of good offensive players selected in the first two or three rounds. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t good defensive players, either. There will be a run of edge rushers and cornerbacks heading into Day 2. I’m excited about this draft class.

While I’m bummed that we won’t have football games played until August, I can’t help but be excited for the offseason. I might enjoy the process of putting a roster together than I do watching games. I’m looking forward to these next few weeks and seeing how these teams handle the offseason.

First round:

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) — QB Caleb Williams, USC

This is the most important offseason in franchise history for Chicago. The Bears have the worst quarterback situation in the NFC North division (again), and I think their front office knows it’s time to move on from Justin Fields. Williams is considered the best quarterback prospect since Trevor Lawrence. Williams gives Chicago its best chance to be successful for the next few years.

2. Washington Commanders (4-13) — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

Washington’s new owner has stripped down the organization, including hiring a new general manager and head coach. I expect the Commanders to target a quarterback early in this draft. With Williams off the board, Maye is considered the second-best prospect at the position. He was inconsistent in college, but he has the physical traits to be successful at the next level.

3. New England Patriots (4-13) — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

New England has to draft a quarterback early in this draft. The Patriots can’t afford to go into next season with Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe starting under center. I think the organization has the same mindset, too. Daniels has emerged as the No. 3 quarterback prospect in this draft class since winning the Heisman Trophy. He’s a dynamic playmaker that could start right away for New England.

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Arizona has more pressing needs than wide receiver, but it can’t afford to pass on Harrison. He’s considered the best player in this draft class by a pretty wide margin, and the best wide receiver prospect since Ja’Marr Chase. The Cardinals could afford to get Kyler Murray more quality pass catchers, too. Harrison would make an immediate impact in Arizona’s passing attack.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

I think Jim Harbaugh wants to bring physicality to the Chargers, which starts by bolstering the trenches. I’m not convinced that they’ll target pass catchers early in the draft. The Chargers could fill both needs by drafting Bowers, though. He’ll make an impact both as a pass catcher and blocker in the NFL. I also think Bowers is a great fit for Harbaugh’s offense (remember Vernon Davis?).

6. New York Giants (6-11) — WR Rome Odunze, Washington

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants target a quarterback early in the draft. However, I think it’s more likely that they get a pass catcher for Daniel Jones. I expect that to be a top priority this offseason, especially with Parris Campbell and Sterling Shepard about to be free agents. Odunze will bring some much needed size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) to the Giants’ wide receiver room.

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

It’s possible that Tennessee has something in Will Levis, so I doubt it’ll target a quarterback early in the draft. If the Titans think the same way, they need to keep him upright because they have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Alt is considered the top offensive tackle prospect in this draft class. Drafting him will go a long way to bolstering Tennessee’s offensive line.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

I expect Atlanta to address the quarterback position during free agency. The Falcons seem to think they’re a good quarterback away from being competitive. Atlanta will likely draft for need with this pick, and its biggest need is to bolster its pass rush. The Falcons don’t have many quality edge rushers on their roster. I think Verse would be a great fit in Atlanta’s defensive scheme.

9. Chicago Bears (7-10) — WR Malik Nabers, LSU

Chicago could go in a variety of ways with this pick after drafting Williams. However, some pundits consider Nabers to be an elite prospect in this draft class. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s off the board by this point in April. I don’t think the Bears can afford to pass on Nabers. Having him, D.J. Moore, and Cole Kmet in the same offense will help with Williams’ development.

10. New York Jets (7-10) — T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

If the board falls this way, I expect the Jets to rush this pick to Roger Goodell. They had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year, which is part of the reason why Aaron Rodgers got hurt. If the Jets think they’re in a Super Bowl window with Rodgers, they need to keep him upright. Fashanu is considered the best pass-blocking offensive tackle prospect in this draft class.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) — QB Bo Nix, Oregon

Kirk Cousins is about to be a free agent and he’ll also be a 36-year-old coming off an Achilles injury. I’m not convinced that Minnesota will bring him back. If the Vikings move on, they’ll need to draft a quarterback early. The best quarterback prospect on the board is Nix, and he might even be the most pro-ready quarterback in this draft class. He’d be a good fit for Minnesota.

12. Denver Broncos (8-9) — QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

All reports indicate that Denver will move on from Russell Wilson this offseason. If so, the Broncos will be financially strapped and won’t be able to afford free agents. Denver won’t have a choice but to draft a quarterback early. Penix might have the highest ceiling of all the quarterback prospects in this draft class. He has elite physical traits that could translate well to the NFL.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

It seems like Las Vegas will address its need for a quarterback during free agency. Plus, the Raiders might have something in Aidan O’Connell. The most pressing need for Las Vegas is arguably cornerback. The Raiders released Marcus Peters during the season and now don’t have any difference makers at the position. Arnold would make an immediate impact in Las Vegas.

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

Offensive line will be an area of concern for New Orleans in 2024. The Saints have six offensive linemen slated to be free agents this offseason, including starting left tackle Andrus Peat. If New Orleans allows Peat to leave, I think Fuaga will be an adequate replacement for him. Fuaga has a similar skillset to Peat, with the ability to play tackle or guard, and could contribute right away.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

I expect Indianapolis to re-sign Michael Pittman Jr., but wide receiver should still be a priority for this team. Adding another quality pass catcher would improve the Colts’ passing attack. I also like the idea of Thomas in Indianapolis. Having him, Pittman, and Josh Downs would give Anthony Richardson plenty of options. Thomas also has the potential to be a solid No. 1 wide receiver.

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

Seattle will need to beef up the interior of its offensive line this offseason. All three of its starters are slated to be free agents. Powers-Johnson is capable of playing each position in the interior, but he should be on the Seahawks’ radar because he won the Rimington Trophy last year. Powers-Johnson can give Seattle a quality presence at center that it hasn’t had since Max Unger.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) — Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

Part of the reason why Jacksonville struggled defensively in 2023 was because of its mediocre pass rush. I expect this pick to be used on an edge rusher. Travon Walker hasn’t panned out and Josh Allen, who’s the team’s best pass rusher, is about to be a free agent. Turner might be the best edge rusher in this draft class. I also think he’d be a great fit in the Jaguars’ defense.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) — T JC Latham, Alabama

Cincinnati has spent a ton of money the last few years to fix its offensive line. Now that the Bengals have paid Joe Burrow, though, I expect there to be cap casualties along their offensive line. I also doubt they’ll bring back right tackle Jonah Williams, who’s about to be a free agent. Drafting Latham makes the most sense for Cincinnati. He can replace Williams and contribute immediately.

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan

I’m still of the opinion that the league is higher on McCarthy than draft analysts. The Rams need to start looking ahead at the quarterback position. Matthew Stafford has shown some signs of decline in recent years. I think this is a great spot for McCarthy, too. He can get the Jordan Love treatment, which means developing for a few years and learning from Stafford and Sean McVay.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) — CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

Pittsburgh’s secondary was average in 2023. The Steelers also have three cornerbacks set to be free agents this offseason, and that’s not counting 33-year-old Patrick Peterson. Mitchell has skyrocketed up the draft board since his performance at the Senior Bowl. I think having him and Joey Porter Jr. on opposite ends of the field will drastically improve Pittsburgh’s secondary.

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6) — T Amarius Mims, Georgia

Addressing the offensive line should be a priority for Miami this offseason. All three starting interior offensive linemen will be free agents. I also think the Dolphins need to draft a long-term left tackle. Terron Armstead has struggled to stay healthy since arriving in Miami, and could be a free agent next year. Mims is capable of playing left tackle and is one of the best players still on the board.

22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) — T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

All reports indicate that Philadelphia is looking to draft an offensive tackle early. It makes sense, too, because Lane Johnson will turn 34 this year. The Eagles have also demonstrated in recent years that they want their early draft picks to learn and develop for a few years. That’s why Philadelphia would be a great spot for Guyton, who can develop behind Johnson until he’s ready.

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) — Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA

There’s a gap between Thomas and the next wide receiver prospect on the board. An underrated need for the Texans is to bolster their defensive front, which has three edge rushers about to be free agents. I don’t see DeMeco Ryans passing on Latu, who’s a top edge rusher in this draft class. Having Latu and Will Anderson Jr. coming off the edge will only improve Houston’s defense.

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) — T Troy Fautanu, Washington

Dallas doesn’t have many needs and the board hasn’t fallen its way in this mock draft. Finding a left tackle of the future should be a priority for the Cowboys this offseason, though. Tyron Smith will turn 34 this year and has played in just 30 regular season games since 2020. Fautanu is a versatile offensive lineman, so he can play several positions and make some kind of impact for Dallas.

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) — CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

I expect Green Bay to revamp its secondary this offseason, especially after hiring Jeff Hafley as its new defensive coordinator. The Packers struggled to defend the pass in 2023, and eight of their defensive backs are set to be free agents. DeJean strikes me as Green Bay’s type of player. He’s versatile enough to play several positions. I also like the idea of DeJean opposite Jaire Alexander.

Washington Huskies defensive lineman Bralen Trice (8) reacts after a sack against the California Golden Bears during the second quarter at FTX Field at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) — Edge Bralen Trice, Washington

It sounds like Tampa Bay will give Baker Mayfield an extension, which rules out a need for quarterback. The Buccaneers probably need to add to their pass rush this offseason. Shaquil Barrett isn’t the same player he used to be and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has collected just 13 sacks in three seasons. I think Trice would be a great addition to Todd Bowles’ defense.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) — DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

Arizona’s top priority this offseason should be to beef up the interior of its defensive front. The Cardinals don’t have any difference makers in that area of their roster. The best interior defensive lineman in this draft class is still on the board in Newton. He’s effective both against the run and as a pass rusher. Newton would also make an immediate impact in Arizona’s defense.

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6) — CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

Buffalo must get younger on the defensive side of the ball, specifically in the secondary. Tre’Davious White has also played in just 21 regular season games since 2020. Even if White gets healthy, the Bills could use a quality cornerback opposite him. Wiggins has the physical traits to have a great NFL career. Buffalo could use him if it wants to remain competitive in the AFC.

Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Rara Thomas (5) is tackled by Missouri Tigers defensive back Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (2) during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

29. Detroit Lions (12-5) — CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri

Cornerback is easily Detroit’s biggest need entering this offseason. The Lions don’t have any difference makers at the position, and six players slated to be free agents the next two years. They need to address the position if they want to remain one of the top teams in the NFC. Rakestraw has ideal length and plays with toughness. That skillset should translate well to the next level.

Oregon Ducks wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) catches a pass for a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) — WR Troy Franklin, Oregon

Part of the reason why Lamar Jackson was so effective through the air in 2023 was because Baltimore invested in quality pass catchers. I don’t think its work is done, especially with Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor, and Devin Duvernay slated to be free agents. Franklin has elite speed, which is why he should hear his name called early. He’d make an impact with Jackson throwing him the ball.

31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — T Jordan Morgan, Arizona

San Francisco has a lot of work to do in the trenches this offseason, specifically along the offensive line. Trent William will turn 36 this year and the rest of its offensive line leaves a lot to be desired. The 49ers will likely need to revamp the entire unit. I think Morgan is a prospect to watch. He’s very athletic for his size (6-foot-5, 325 pounds) and could contribute right away at right tackle.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) — DL Byron Murphy, Texas

Kansas City could use some help in the interior of its defensive front. The Chiefs currently have just one player at the position under contract for 2024. Chris Jones, who’s one of the best defensive players in the NFL, is one of the players slated to be a free agent. Murphy makes too much sense for Kansas City. He’s not only one of the best players still on the board, but he fills a need.

Second round:

Pick	Player
33. Carolina Panthers (2-15)	Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
34. New England Patriots	WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
35. Arizona Cardinals	CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
36. Washington Commanders	Edge Chris Braswell, Alabama
37. Los Angeles Chargers	CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia
38. Tennessee Titans	WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
39. New York Giants	DL Darius Robinson, Missouri
40. Washington Commanders (from Chicago)	T Kiran Amegadjie, Yale
41. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets)	LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M
42. Minnesota Vikings	IOL Zach Frazier, West Virginia
43. Atlanta Falcons	WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
44. Las Vegas Raiders	T Graham Barton, Duke
45. New Orleans Saints (from Denver)	DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan
46. Indianapolis Colts	CB TJ Tampa, Iowa State
47. New York Giants (from Seattle)	IOL Christian Haynes, UConn
48. Jacksonville Jaguars	S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
49. Cincinnati Bengals	TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas
50. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)	LB Junior Colson, Michigan
51. Pittsburgh Steelers	LB Payton Wilson, NC State
52. Los Angeles Rams	T Patrick Paul, Houston
53. Philadelphia Eagles	WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
54. Cleveland Browns (11-6)	DL Braden Fiske, Florida State
55. Miami Dolphins	WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina
56. Dallas Cowboys	RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CB Caelen Carson, Wake Forest
58. Green Bay Packers	S Kamren Kinchens, Miami
59. Houston Texans (10-7)	WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
60. Buffalo Bills	DL T’Vondre Sweat, Texas
61. Detroit Lions	Edge Jonah Elliss, Utah
62. Baltimore Ravens	Edge Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan
63. San Francisco 49ers	Edge Adisa Isaac, Penn State
64. Kansas City Chiefs	WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers wide receiver Malachi Corley (11) runs the ball against Old Dominion Monarchs linebacker Koa Naotala (47) during the first quarter at Charlotte 49ers’ Jerry Richardson Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Third round:

Pick	Player
65. Carolina Panthers	WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
66. Arizona Cardinals	T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
67. Washington Commanders	LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson
68. New England Patriots	T Dominick Paul, Kansas
69. Los Angeles Chargers	Edge Austin Booker, Kansas
70. New York Giants	S Calen Bullock, USC
71. Arizona Cardinals (from Tennessee)	DL Brandon Dorlus, Oregon
72. New York Jets	WR Jermaine Burton, Alabama
73. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota)	CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr., Louisville
74. Atlanta Falcons	CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
75. Chicago Bears	Edge Javon Solomon, Troy
76. Denver Broncos	WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
77. Las Vegas Raiders	DL DeWayne Carter, Duke
78. Seattle Seahawks	QB Michael Pratt, Tulane
79. Jacksonville Jaguars	IOL Christian Mahogany, Boston College
80. Cincinnati Bengals	DL Leonard Taylor III, Miami
81. Seattle Seahawks (from New Orleans via Denver)	IOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
82. Indianapolis Colts	DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson
83. Los Angeles Rams	S Javon Bullard, Georgia
84. Pittsburgh Steelers	S Sione Vaki, Utah
85. Cleveland Browns	WR Brendan Rice, USC
Miami Dolphins	Pick forfeited
86. Houston Texans (from Philadelphia)	DL McKinley Jackson, Texas A&M
87. Dallas Cowboys	CB Jarrian Jones, Florida State
88. Green Bay Packers	S Tykee Smith, Georgia
89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	RB Trey Benson, Florida State
90. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)	WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
91. Green Bay Packers (from Buffalo)	RB Blake Corum, Michigan
92. Detroit Lions	DL Mekhi Wingo, LSU
93. Baltimore Ravens	CB Renardo Green, Florida State
94. Washington Commanders (from San Francisco)	CB Max Melton, Rutgers
95. Kansas City Chiefs	T Matt Goncalves, Pitt

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2024 NFL mock draft: Top 18 picks

January 13, 2024January 12, 2024Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“What a waste of good scotch.”

— James Bond, “Skyfall” (2012)

With the NFL regular season being over, it’s time for a mock draft. There are 18 teams that didn’t make the postseason, which means that the first 18 picks of the NFL draft are set and there are 18 fanbases already looking ahead to April. If you’re a frequent reader of my blog, you know that I like to give those fanbases something to look forward to this time of year. I typically don’t publish a post on Saturdays, but this week kind of got away from me. Better late than never, right?

I don’t want to get everyone’s hopes up, but it seems like the 2024 draft class has a chance to be one of the best in NFL history. This class is loaded at the top with offensive players, specifically at the quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive tackle positions. That’s not to say that the defensive prospects aren’t that good in this class. I think teams will find some good players on that side of the ball, but likely not among the top 10 picks. I’m not sure I’ve seen a draft class loaded with so much offensive talent at the top.

I’m very interested to see how teams treat this draft. I expect there to be many teams try to trade up to pick one of the top quarterback prospects, which could lead to a fairly uneventful free agency period. We’ll see how it all shakes out once the postseason wraps up in a few weeks.

Top 18 picks:

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina; 2-15) — QB Caleb Williams, USC

I’ll be shocked if Chicago doesn’t use this pick on a quarterback. It was evident in Week 18 that Justin Fields isn’t the guy, and just how far behind the Bears are in the NFC North division. I don’t think Williams is a generational prospect. He has a couple red flags, but he’s regarded as the best quarterback prospect in this draft class. I don’t think Chicago can afford to pass on him.

2. Washington Commanders (4-13) — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

With Washington’s new owner stripping down the entire organization, I expect this pick to be a quarterback. Sam Howell did some good things, but he’s not the long-term solution. It makes too much sense to have a new general manager, head coach, and quarterback in lock step for the next few years. Maye is considered to be the best quarterback prospect after Williams.

3. New England Patriots (4-13) — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

With Bill Belichick no longer in New England, I expect this pick to be a quarterback. Patriots owner Robert Kraft wants to get the team back on track, and the best way to do that is draft a quarterback. I think people need to expect Daniels to be drafted in the top 10, and possibly even before Maye. Daniels is a bit of a raw prospect, but he could be worth the risk.

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Arizona doesn’t need to use this pick on a wide receiver, but it needs to get more playmakers for Kyler Murray. The Cardinals also can’t afford to pass on Harrison. He’s considered the top prospect in this draft class and a generational talent. Harrison would likely be the No. 1 receiver for this team the moment he steps foot in the facility, too. He’d be a great addition to Arizona’s offense.

LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) catchers a pass against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — WR Malik Nabers, LSU

I expect the Chargers to trade out of this pick. If they have to make this pick, though, I think they’ll add to their wide receiver room. Keenan Allen is getting older, Mike Williams can’t stay healthy, and Quentin Johnston didn’t play well as a rookie. The Chargers could really use a player like Nabers in their passing attack. He’d be a great pass catcher for Justin Herbert.

6. New York Giants (6-11) — WR Rome Odunze, Washington

I’m not sure what the Giants will do with this pick. With the top three quarterbacks off the board, I think the Giants would draft a pass catcher. Daniel Jones doesn’t have many options, especially if Parris Campbell and Sterling Shepard leave in free agency. Odunze would bring needed size (6’3”, 215 pounds) to the Giants, and he’s the best pass catcher prospect on the board.

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

I think Tennessee has something in Will Levis, so I’m not convinced it drafts a quarterback. The Titans had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL — allowing 60 sacks. The best way for them to bolster their offensive line is to draft Alt. He’s very good at both run and pass blocking, which is why I think there’s a good chance he’ll be the first offensive tackle prospect off the board.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Atlanta can’t afford to keep neglecting the quarterback position. The Falcons have the pieces offensively to score points, but their quarterback situation held them back in 2023. I don’t think the NFL is as high on Penix as the media because of medical concerns, but he’s the best quarterback still on the board. I think he’d make an immediate impact in Atlanta’s offense.

9. Chicago Bears (7-10) — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

I wasn’t sure what position to mock to Chicago with this pick. The board didn’t really fall the Bears’ way in this scenario. Drafting the best player available is never a bad idea, though, and that’s Bowers. He’s going to be a difference maker at the next level as a pass catcher. Coming away with Williams and Bowers in the first round would go a long way to fixing Chicago’s offensive issues.

10. New York Jets (7-10) — T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

If this is the way the board falls, the Jets should run this pick up to Roger Goodell. Many draft analysts consider Fashanu to be the best offensive tackle prospect in this draft class. The Jets need to beef up their offensive line to keep Aaron Rodgers upright, too. Fashanu has some question marks as a run blocker, but he should have a long NFL career based solely on his ability to pass block.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) — QB Bo Nix, Oregon

It’s unclear if Kirk Cousins will remain in Minnesota. He’ll turn 36 this year and is coming off an Achilles injury. This could be the right time for the Vikings to move on, which means they’ll need to target quarterbacks early in the draft. The best prospect on the board is Nix. His physical traits are likely best suited for college, but they can carry over to the NFL.

12. Denver Broncos (8-9) — Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

I don’t know how Denver plans to handle Russell Wilson this offseason. I’m not convinced that he’ll return to the Broncos. There aren’t any quarterbacks to draft with this pick without reaching for one, so I think Denver will want to bolster its pass rush. The Broncos ranked near the bottom in pressure rate. I expect Turner to be the first edge rusher off the board in April.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

I don’t know if Jimmy Garoppolo or Aidan O’Connell are long-term solutions at the quarterback position. Aside from quarterback, I think cornerback is the biggest need for the Raiders. Marcus Peters and Nate Hobbs will be free agents the next two offseasons. They could really use a player like McKinstry in their secondary. He’s considered to be the top cornerback prospect in this draft class.

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

New Orleans has struggled to replace Terron Armstead at left tackle since he left for Miami. Trevor Penning hasn’t panned out. The Saints have six offensive linemen slated to be free agents this offseason, including Andrus Peat. They’ll need to add to their offensive line. Fuaga is the best offensive lineman still on the board. He’d contribute right away for New Orleans.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

Indianapolis could go in a variety of ways with this pick, but I think bolstering its pass rush should rank near the top of its “to-do list” this offseason. The Colts have struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks in recent years. I doubt they can afford to pass on Verse, who likely would’ve been a top 10 pick last year. He has a chance to be the top edge rusher in this draft class.

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

It feels like I say this every year, but Seattle needs to improve the interior of its defensive front. The Seahawks ranked near the bottom of the league in run defense. They could use a player like Newton. He’s the most complete interior defensive lineman in this draft class, and he’ll make a difference against both the run and pass. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being a top 10 pick in April.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) — Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA

Considering Jacksonville just fired its entire defensive coaching staff, I expect it to target defense early in the draft. The Jaguars’ pass rush must improve if this team wants to compete in the AFC. Latu probably won’t be cleared by teams because of his medical history, but he’s a good prospect. Some draft analysts think Latu is the best edge rusher in this draft class.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) — T JC Latham, Alabama

There’s a chance that Cincinnati’s offensive line, which already isn’t good, will take a hit this offseason. Jonah Williams is about to be a free agent and there might even be some cap casualties. The Bengals need to address that to keep Joe Burrow upright. I think Latham would be a great fit in Cincinnati. Latham played right tackle in college and could contribute immediately.

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2024 NFL mock draft halfway through the regular season

November 8, 2023November 8, 2023Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“I’ve killed for you. Who else can say that?”

– Amy Dunne, “Gone Girl” (2014)

We’ve officially passed the halfway point of the NFL regular season. We have some teams already looking ahead to the postseason and other teams that know that they likely aren’t going to play after the regular season. That’s why I always enjoy doing a mock draft at this point. We’re starting to have an understanding of what the draft order will look like come April, and how teams will likely handle the offseason. Plus, I like to give fans of teams that likely aren’t participating in the postseason something to look forward to.

We have a ways to go before I have a good impression of this draft class, but my current takeaway is that it’ll be a good year to draft a quarterback. There could be as many as eight quarterbacks drafted in the top 50 picks, which is unusual even with the quarterback inflation that we’ve seen in recent years. There also seems to be depth at the wide receiver, interior defensive line, and safety positions.

I determined the draft order by reverse order of the league standings for picks No. 1-18, with tie-breakers being strength and schedule and strength of victory. I determined picks No. 19-32 the same way, except that those picks consist of teams currently in the playoff picture.

First round:

1. Arizona Cardinals (1-8) – T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

The position that makes the most sense for Arizona to draft with this pick is offensive tackle. Left tackle D.J. Humphries is currently having the worst season of his career, and there’s a chance he becomes a free agent this offseason. Fashanu is considered the best tackle in this draft class. Having him and Paris Johnson Jr. will give the Cardinals talented, young bookend tackles for the future.

2. Chicago Bears (from Carolina; 1-7) – QB Caleb Williams, USC

The Justin Fields experiment is likely coming to an end this offseason. He’s in the middle of his third year in the NFL and hasn’t shown any improvement. I think Chicago’s general manager, who didn’t draft Fields, will want to draft his own guy. Williams makes too much sense for the Bears. Not only is he considered the best quarterback in this draft class, he’s considered the best overall prospect.

3. Chicago Bears (2-7) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

I don’t think Chicago could go wrong drafting Harrison with its second pick of the first round. He’s one of the best wide receivers to come through the draft in recent years. Harrison would be a weapon on the perimeter, which is something Chicago’s offense has lacked since Brandon Marshall. Getting out of the first round with Williams and Harrison would be an ideal scenario for the Bears.

4. New York Giants (2-7) – QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

Daniel Jones has yet to prove that he’s a franchise quarterback. His contract makes it possible for the Giants to move on from him after the 2024 season, too. If the Giants end up picking this high come April, I can’t see them passing on a quarterback of Maye’s caliber. He can either sit behind Jones for a year, but he’s also talented enough to be an immediate starter for the Giants.

5. New England Patriots (2-7) – T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

I was tempted to mock a quarterback to New England, because I doubt Mac Jones is the long-term answer at the position. With Williams and Maye off the board, though, I think it’s more likely that the Patriots use this pick on an offensive tackle. They’ve had issues at the position in recent years and they need to address that need. Alt is the best player at the position still on the board.

6. Los Angeles Rams (3-6) – Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA

With the top offensive tackles and quarterbacks off the board, I think the Rams will target an edge rusher with this pick. They currently rank near the bottom of the NFL in pressure rate and sacks. The Rams need to bolster their pass rush this offseason. I think drafting Latu could go a long way to fix that. He has the size and length that a lot of NFL teams look for in an edge rusher.

7. Green Bay Packers (3-5) – T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

I can’t help but think that Green Bay is going to stick with Jordan Love next season. If so, the Packers’ biggest need becomes offensive line. Left tackle David Bakhtiari isn’t getting any younger, and he’s struggled staying on the field the last three seasons. Green Bay needs to keep Love upright in order to get a better understanding of what it has in him. Fuaga could make an immediate impact.

8. Denver Broncos (3-5) – Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State

Denver’s pass rush has taken a hit in recent years after the organization moved on from Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. That’s why the Broncos currently rank No. 31 in pressure rate. I also don’t think Nik Bonitto or Baron Browning are edge rushers of the future for Denver. The Broncos need to address that this offseason. Robinson not only fills that need, but he’s one of the top players still on the board.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) – QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Baker Mayfield isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback for Tampa Bay. I’ll be surprised if the Buccaneers don’t target a quarterback early in the draft. The name to keep an eye on is McCarthy. NFL teams are much higher on him than the public, which is why it’s likely he’s considered the third-best quarterback prospect in this draft class. He has the arm strength to succeed at the next level, too.

10. Tennessee Titans (3-5) – WR Malik Nabers, LSU

I think Tennessee has something in Will Levis. The Titans need to get him help offensively. Since the top offensive line prospects are off the board, the next option is to draft a pass catcher. Tennessee has lacked difference makers at that position since trading A.J. Brown. That’s why drafting Nabers makes sense. He’s considered the best wide receiver in this draft class after Harrison.

11. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

The board hasn’t fallen Las Vegas’ way in this mock draft. It’s too early for the Raiders to address their biggest needs. Another option is to draft a cornerback. Las Vegas has four players at the position set to be free agents over the next two offseasons, including Marcus Peters. The Raiders need to find long-term options at cornerback. McKinstry would make an immediate impact in Las Vegas.

12. Washington Commanders (4-5) – Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

Washington’s depth at edge rusher took a hit after trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat. The Commanders also have three more edge rushers set to be free agents this offseason. They really need to add to that position. Verse is the best edge rusher prospect still on the board, and is arguably the best player available. I think he’d make an immediate impact in Washington.

13. Atlanta Falcons (4-5) – QB Bo Nix, Oregon

Atlanta has a roster that’s ready to compete in the NFC. The thing holding the Falcons back is the quarterback position. I don’t think Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke are long-term options at quarterback. That’s why drafting Nix makes sense. He does a lot of things well as a prospect, which is why he’ll likely hear his name called in the first round. I think Atlanta would be wise to draft Nix.

14. Indianapolis Colts (4-5) – TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

Anthony Richardson showed a lot of promise as a rookie quarterback before getting hurt. Indianapolis needs to get him more help, specifically at pass catcher. The Colts could go with a wide receiver, but Bowers is too good of a tight end prospect to pass on. He could make as much of an impact as a wide receiver. Bower’s would make an excellent addition to Indianapolis’ passing attack.

15. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston; 4-4) – CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

It’s still too early for Arizona to draft its most pressing needs with this pick. The Cardinals could use help at the cornerback position, though. Arizona has lacked difference makers at cornerback since moving on from Patrick Peterson a few years ago. DeJean is one of the best prospects still on the board. He’s versatile enough to play any position in the secondary, which will help the Cardinals.

Penn State Nittany Lions cornerback Kalen King (4) makes an catch against Utah Utes wide receiver Devaughn Vele (17) in the first half of the 109th Rose Bowl game at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

16. Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) – CB Kalen King, Penn State

The Chargers have struggled defending the pass this season. They also just traded one of their better cornerbacks in J.C. Jackson. The Chargers lack difference makers at the position aside from Asante Samuel Jr., who could potentially be a free agent next year. They need to add to their cornerback room this offseason. King fills that need and is one of the best players still on the board.

17. New York Jets (4-4) – T J.C. Latham, Alabama

Given Aaron Rodgers’ age and current injury, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets use this pick on a quarterback. I expect them to bolster their offensive line, though. The Jets are trying to make a run at a Super Bowl with Rodgers, and their offensive line is holding them back. The Jets don’t have a long-term option at offensive tackle. Latham might be a bit of a reach at this point, but he fills that need.

Miami Hurricanes safety Kamren Kinchens (5) celebrates with teammates after catching a interception against the Clemson Tigers during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

18. Buffalo Bills (5-4) – S Kamren Kinchens, Miami

Buffalo could go in a variety of ways with this pick. I think the Bills’ most pressing need will be the safety position this offseason. Each of their top three safeties (Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Taylor Rapp) will be free agents over the next two offseasons. Buffalo needs to address the position. Kinchens is considered the top safety in this draft class. He’d make an immediate impact for the Bills.

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) rushes against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane during the second quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

19. Minnesota Vikings (5-4) – QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

One of the worst-kept secrets in the league is how this is likely Kirk Cousins’ last year in Minnesota. I expect the Vikings to move on from him this offseason, which will put them in the market to draft a franchise quarterback. Penix is the best quarterback still on the board. I’m not sure that NFL teams are as high on him as other players, but I think Penix has the physical traits to succeed at the next level.

20. New Orleans Saints (5-4) – IOL Graham Barton, Duke

New Orleans has four interior offensive linemen slated to be free agents this offseason, including one starter. Plus, Trevor Penning hasn’t panned out since being drafted. The Saints must bolster their offensive line. Drafting a prospect like Barton can fix that. He’ll likely be bounced inside to guard at the next level, but he has experience playing tackle. New Orleans could use him.

Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive back Tyler Nubin (27) celebrates a stop against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

21. Seattle Seahawks (5-3) – S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota

Seattle is putting together one of the best secondaries in the NFL, but it needs help at the safety position. Quandre Diggs will be a free agent next year and Jamal Adams hasn’t played that well since joining the Seahawks. Seattle could really use a player like Nubin, who’s versatile enough to play either safety position. He could make an immediate impact in the Seahawks’ ascending secondary.

22. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) – WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

Cincinnati has some tough decisions to make this offseason, specifically at the wide receiver position. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both slated to be free agents. I’m not convinced that the Bengals will retain either of them. If not, they’ll need to add dynamic wide receivers to pair with Ja’Marr Chase. Coleman is an ascending prospect. I think he’d be a great addition to Cincinnati’s passing attack.

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland; 5-3) – DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

Houston’s roster could still use improvement across the board. I think DeMeco Ryans will want to keep adding to his defensive front this offseason, specifically in the interior. I’m surprised Newton is still on the board. He can make an impact in the run game and as a pass rusher. Having Newton in the interior and Will Anderson on the edge will go a long way to revamping the Texans’ defensive front.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) – CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

Even though it’s not a pressing need, Pittsburgh should consider revamping its cornerback room this offseason. The Steelers are getting older at the position, and they have four players about to be free agents. I think Wiggins would be a nice addition to Pittsburgh. He has great ball skills that should carry over to the NFL. I think Wiggins and Joey Porter Jr. would make a great cornerback duo.

Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Leonard Taylor III (56) pursues Temple Owls quarterback E.J. Warner (3) in the second half against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Lewis-USA TODAY Sports

25. Dallas Cowboys (5-3) – DL Leonard Taylor III, Miami

I think Dallas still needs work in the interior of its defensive front. Mazi Smith, who the Cowboys drafted in the first round this year, hasn’t made much of an impact. Plus, Jonathan Hankins and Neville Gallimore will be free agents this offseason. Taylor could be in the argument as the best interior defensive lineman in this draft class. I think Dallas would be wise to draft him at this point.

26. San Francisco 49ers (5-3) – T Amarius Mims, Georgia

San Francisco’s offensive line might be the team’s biggest weakness. The 49ers could use a long-term option at tackle, too. Trent Williams will be 36 next year, and Colton McKivitz is a free agent in 2025. It’s time for San Francisco to add to the position. Mims is the best tackle prospect still on the board. He’d contribute right away at either left or right tackle, and potentially be a replacement for Williams.

27. Miami Dolphins (6-3) – WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Even though Miami already has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it could use another pass catcher in its offense. Plus, the Dolphins have four players at the position set to be free agents this offseason. Miami probably needs to prioritize finding a No. 3 wide receiver. Odunze can fill that role immediately. I also think he’d make a nice complement to Hill and Waddle as a big body on the perimeter.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) – Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

Jacksonville’s pass rush has been an issue this season. The Jaguars are relying heavily on Josh Allen, who’s a good player but not a great player, to apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks. Former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker hasn’t reached his potential, either. Jacksonville could really use a player like Turner. He might be undersized, but he has plenty of speed coming off the edge.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) runs the ball after the catch during the second half against the Youngstown State Penguins at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

29. Detroit Lions (6-2) – WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

Wide receiver is going to be on Detroit’s radar this offseason. The Lions just released Marvin Jones, and Josh Reynolds and Donovan Peoples-Jones are slated to be free agents. Detroit will have to add to the position. I think Egbuka would be a nice addition to the Lions. He’s one of the best players still on the board. Egbuka is also a versatile player capable of lining up all over the field.

TCU Horned Frogs cornerback Josh Newton (2) intercepts a pass intended for SMU Mustangs wide receiver Jordan Kerley (1) during the second half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

30. Baltimore Ravens (7-2) – CB Josh Newton, TCU

Baltimore could keep adding to its wide receiver room, but I think it’s time for the organization to look at cornerback. The Ravens have five players at the position currently slated to be free agents this offseason. They need a long-term option to play opposite of Marlon Humphrey. Newton has terrific man-coverage ability. I think he’d be a great fit in Baltimore’s secondary.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) – WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas

Kansas City has been out of sorts offensively this season. I think part of the reason for that is because the Chiefs lack quality pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce. Kansas City needs to remedy that this offseason. Mitchell would be a good addition to the Chiefs’ offense. He’s not only a big body to have on the perimeter, but he has the ability to take the top off opposing defenses.

32. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) – Edge Bralen Trice, Washington

With the way the board has fallen in this mock draft, I expect Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman to draft a defensive lineman. Edge rusher is a position of need for the Eagles, too. They have five players at the position slated to be free agents over the next two offseasons, including Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat. Trice would be a good addition if Philadelphia chooses to move on from those players.

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2024 NFL mock draft after the preseason

August 28, 2023August 27, 2023Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“If we get jammed up, we’re holding court on the street.”

– James Coughlin, “The Town” (2010)

The NFL preseason has now wrapped up. Rosters will be finalized in the next few days as teams get ready for the start of the regular season. Even college football got started over the weekend. That’s why I thought this would be a great time to do a new 2024 mock draft.

As the rosters become finalized, we’re going to get a better sense of team needs for next year. My immediate impression of this draft class is that it seems to be pretty balanced. There seems to be plenty of quality prospects at each position, which should make things intriguing when next April comes around.

Like with my way-too-early mock draft back in May, I determined the draft order in this post based on current Super Bowl LVIII odds via FanDuel. I also reserved the last 14 spots in the order for teams that would make the playoffs based solely on those odds.

First round:

Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

1. Arizona Cardinals – QB Caleb Williams, USC

I doubt Kyler Murray is safe, even though he’s under contract until at least 2027 and has a dead cap hit of $81.5 million next year. It’s a new regime in Arizona. It’s likely that new general manager Monti Ossenfort will want to draft his own franchise quarterback as the Cardinals rebuild. Williams is considered the best quarterback prospect to come through the draft since Trevor Lawrence.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

2. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Arizona is actually in a decent spot at the offensive tackle position. The only position that would help Williams’ development more than an offensive lineman would be a wide receiver. There’s a great prospect on the board in Harrison, and it’s not too early to draft him. He’s considered to be the top receiver prospect to come through the draft in a long time. The Cardinals could use him.

Correction: Back in May, I thought Houston had the option to give its 2024 first-round that it received from Cleveland to Arizona, but that’s not the case. It seems like Houston will have to trade its own 2024 first-round pick to Arizona.

Penn State offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu gets lined up before a play. Mandatory credit: Penn State Athletics

3. Indianapolis Colts – T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

I struggled with this pick, but I eventually landed on offensive tackle. Indianapolis’ offensive line isn’t as strong as it was a few years ago. Left tackle Braden Smith could also become a free agent after this season, and it’s unclear if Bernhard Raimann is a long-term option at right tackle. I doubt the Colts will be able to pass on Fashanu. He’s talented enough to start right away.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

Tampa Bay is in the middle of a rebuild now that Tom Brady is retired. The Buccaneers need to find a long-term option at the quarterback position, and I doubt it’s going to be Baker Mayfield. The best player at the position, and arguably the best player on the board, is Maye. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being the selection at the No. 1 overall pick once next April rolls around.

5. Las Vegas Raiders – T JC Latham, Alabama

I’m still surprised that Las Vegas has picked only two offensive linemen the last two drafts. The Raiders will likely have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this season, so they must emphasize the position. It might be early to draft Latham, but Las Vegas can’t afford to not use this pick on an offensive lineman. Having Latham and Kolton Miller will give the Raiders two bookend tackles.

Florida State Seminoles defensive end Jared Verse (5) lines up against Duquesne Dukes offensive lineman Chris Oliver (59) during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

6. Los Angeles Rams – Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

The Rams are going to have roster needs across the board next year. One of their most pressing needs is going to be edge rusher. They’re lacking quality players at that position right now. You have to be able to rush the passer in today’s league. Verse certainly has that ability. In fact, he would’ve been a top 10 pick in this year’s draft if he didn’t go back to school. The Rams need a player like Verse.

Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) runs the ball against the Missouri Tigers during the first half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

7. Washington Commanders – TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

I struggled with this pick. Washington’s roster is actually in decent shape, but the value isn’t there to mock a player at a position of need to the Commanders. Washington lacks difference makers at the tight end position, and Bowers is arguably the best player on the board. He’d be a nice addition to Washington’s offense, which already has an assortment of playmakers.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) runs with the ball against Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Christopher Smith (29) during the third quarter of the 2022 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

8. Chicago Bears – WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

Chicago currently has five wide receivers slated to be free agents next year, including two of its top three receivers in Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney. The Bears need to keep getting Justin Fields quality pass catchers, especially if they don’t re-sign Claypool or Mooney. Egbuka is the best receiver on the board. He’d also make an immediate impact in Chicago’s offense.

9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) – T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

The next order of business for Chicago is to beef up its offensive line. The Bears must keep Fields upright. They drafted Darnell Wright this year, but more work needs to be done. The average Pro Football Focus score of the offensive tackles on Chicago’s roster had an average score of 64.8 last year, which is average. Alt is too good of a prospect to pass on. He’d contribute immediately for the Bears.

Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry (1) covers Mercer Bears wide receiver Devron Harper (1) at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

10. Tennessee Titans – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

I think Tennessee would prefer to use this pick at a position of greater need, but the value isn’t there. McKinstry is the best player on the board and he’d help the Titans. The cornerbacks on their roster leave a lot to be desired. Neither Caleb Farley or Kristian Fulton have panned out, and Sean Murphy-Bunting is slated to be a free agent next year. McKinstry would likely start right away.

Clemson Tigers safety Andrew Mukuba (1) tackles Syracuse Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader (6) during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

11. New England Patriots – S Andrew Mukuba, Clemson

I highly doubt Bill Belichick would use this pick on a wide receiver, and the top offensive linemen are off the board. It’s likely New England would target defensive backs. The Patriots must revamp its safety room after Devin McCourty’s retirement, and with Kyle Dugger slated to be a free agent next year. Mukuba is considered to be the top safety prospect in this draft class.

12. Atlanta Falcons – Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

I’ve been pounding the table for Atlanta to beef up its pass rush for a while. The Falcons have finished in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate the last few seasons. This team has to start adding to its defense. Drafting Turner would go a long way to fixing Atlanta’s pass rush. He’s been highly productive in college and is considered one of the top edge rushers in this draft class.

13. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers, LSU

The Giants are going to need to keep adding to their wide receiver room. Not only could they use some upgrades at the position, but they also have five players slated to be free agents over the next two years. That’s why I think Nabers would be a good addition. He’s a talented player that should improve this season. Nabers would make an impact in the Giants’ passing attack, alongside Jalin Hyatt.

Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean (3) pulls in an interception for a touchdown over Kentucky wide receiver Barion Brown (2) during the second quarter of the TransPerfect Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. Mandatory credit: The Tennessean

14. Denver Broncos – CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

I think Denver is going to need help at the cornerback position soon. K’Waun Williams and Fabian Moreau are slated to be free agents next year. The depth at the position will take a hit if the Broncos don’t re-sign either of them. That’s why I have them drafting DeJean, who’s a very good player. He’s a ballhawk and isn’t afraid to get scrappy in the run game. Denver could really use him.

Clemson linebacker Barrett Carter (0) reacts after sacking Louisville quarterback Brock Dormann (19) during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

15. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Barrett Carter, Clemson

Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, but it has a weakness at linebacker. The Steelers don’t have many quality players at the position. Plus, Kwon Alexander and Nick Kwiatkoski are slated to be free agents next year. Pittsburgh is going to have to add to the position, and Carter is the best option still on the board. He’s considered to be one of the top linebacker prospects in this draft class.

Miami Hurricanes safety Kamren Kinchens (24) intercepts a pass against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the second half at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

16. Green Bay Packers – S Kamren Kinchens, Miami

I think safety is going to be Green Bay’s biggest weakness next offseason. The Packers have four players at the position slated to be free agents next year, including starter Darnell Savage. I’m still surprised Green Bay didn’t address the position more in the last two drafts. Kinchens has the skillset to be a starting free safety at the next level. The Packers could really use him.

17. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) – CB Kalen King, Penn State

Houston currently has seven cornerbacks on its roster that are slated to be free agents over the next two years, including five in 2024. I realize that the Texans have more pressing needs, but they’re going to have to add to the position in the offseason. King is arguably the best player still on the board, and he’ll help fill that need for Houston. He’d pair nicely with Derek Stingley Jr. in the Texans’ secondary.

Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton (94) sacks Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) in the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

18. Miami Dolphins – DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

Aside from the quarterback position, the biggest need for Miami is likely to add to the interior of its defensive front. The Dolphins have four players at the position set to be free agents next year, including Christian Wilkins. They’ll be hurting if they let him walk in free agency. Newton is one of the top interior defensive linemen in this draft class. Miami will likely need a player like him.

19. New Orleans Saints – T Graham Barton, Duke

New Orleans is going to have to add to its offensive line next year. The Saints have nine offensive linemen set to be free agents, including a few starters. I think they really need a player like Barton, who’s considered to be versatile enough to play either tackle or guard. That’s exactly the type of player that New Orleans will need to fill the potential holes along the offensive line.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Edge Bralen Trice, Washington

I’ve said for years that Seattle must improve its defensive front. The Seahawks have formed a great secondary and now need to bolster their pass rush. Seattle’s depth at edge rusher will take a hit if Darrell Taylor walks in free agency next year. Trice is a promising prospect after collecting nine sacks and 12 tackles for loss last year. He’d contribute right away for Seattle.

Ohio State defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau looks in the backfield during a play. Mandatory credit: AP photo

21. Minnesota Vikings – Edge J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State

Minnesota’s defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in each of the last two seasons. I think the most pressing need for the Vikings is at edge rusher. Minnesota lacks depth at the position, especially if Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport become free agents next year. I don’t think the Vikings can afford to pass on Tuimoloau, who’s poised to have a big year this season.

Louisiana State Tigers defensive tackle Maason Smith (0) celebrates a play during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

22. Jacksonville Jaguars – DL Maason Smith, LSU

I was surprised that Jacksonville didn’t use more draft capital to add to its defensive front this year. The Jaguars don’t have many difference makers, specifically in the interior, and they have a few key players about to be free agents. Jacksonville could use a player of Smith’s caliber. He’s considered one of the top prospects in this draft class, and would likely contribute right away for the Jaguars.

Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) carries the ball against Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback Clarence Lewis (6) in the second quarter of the NCAA football game between Ohio State Buckeyes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Robertson-USA TODAY Sports

23. Los Angeles Chargers – RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

Running back Austin Ekeler has been vocal this offseason about wanting a contract extension. The problem is that I doubt he gets it from the Chargers, who are known to be a cheap organization. I expect the Chargers to be in the market for a new starting running back next year, and the best player at the position is still on the board in Henderson. He’s good enough to start right away.

BYU offensive lineman Kingsley Suamataia gets lined up before a play. Mandatory credit: Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

24. New York Jets – T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU

One of the top storylines on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” this year has been how poor the Jets’ offensive line has performed so far throughout training camp. If the Jets keep this pick, I expect them to use it on an offensive lineman. Even though Suamataia might be a reach with this pick, I don’t think the Jets can afford to pass on him. Suamataia is regarded as one of the top offensive tackles in this draft class.

This pick is contingent on Aaron Rodgers playing 65% of the team’s snaps, if he reaches that mark then this pick will go to Green Bay.

Ohio State Buckeyes cornerback Denzel Burke (10) goes up against Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Jayden Reed (1) in the third quarter at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory credit: The Columbus Dispatch

25. Detroit Lions – CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State

I think Detroit’s biggest need next year is still going to be the cornerback position. The Lions have ranked near the bottom in pass defense the last few years because they lack quality players at the position. They also have three cornerbacks set to be free agents over the next two years. Burke has the traits to develop into a quality NFL cornerback, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he hears his name called sooner.

26. Baltimore Ravens – WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Baltimore needs to keep adding to its wide receiver room. Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor are going to be free agents after this season, and Rashad Bateman has played in just 18 games the last two seasons. I think Odunze would be a nice addition for the Ravens. He’d give them a long-term option on the perimeter, and would make a nice pair with Zay Flowers in the slot.

Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) stiff arms Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back Malcolm Hartzog (13) in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

27. Dallas Cowboys – RB Blake Corum, Michigan

I think Dallas’ biggest need next year is going to be running back. The Cowboys have four running backs on their roster slated to be free agents next year, including starter Tony Pollard. If Dallas doesn’t retain any of those players, it’ll likely need to use a premium pick to add to the position room. There’s a very good chance that Corum emerges as the second-best rusher in this draft class.

Clemson Tigers linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (54) points to the Miami Hurricanes offense during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

28. Cincinnati Bengals – LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson

I expect Cincinnati to keep using premium picks to target defensive players. I think an underrated need for the Bengals is linebacker. They don’t have many difference makers at the position, and they have four linebackers on their roster set to be free agents over the next two years. Trotter might be the best linebacker in college football this season. Cincinnati could use him in its front seven.

Clemson Tigers defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro (33) tackles Furman Paladins quarterback Tyler Huff (6) during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

29. San Francisco 49ers – DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson

The interior of San Francisco’s defensive front might take a hit over the next two years. The 49ers have five players at the position set to be free agents, including starter Arik Armstead. They’ll likely need to use a premium pick on an interior defensive lineman. Orhorhoro would be good value at this point. He might’ve heard his name called early in this year’s draft if he didn’t return to school.

Michigan Wolverines defensive back Rod Moore (19) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

30. Buffalo Bills – S Rod Moore, Michigan

Safety is going to be near the top of Buffalo’s list of needs this offseason. The Bills have eight safeties on their roster slated to be free agents over the next two years, including starters Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Buffalo is going to need a long-term option at the position. Moore had a strong sophomore season last year and I only anticipate him to improve. He should be on the Bills’ radar.

Florida Gators cornerback Jaydon Hill (23) and defensive lineman Princely Umanmielen (33) tackle South Carolina Gamecocks tight end Jaheim Bell (0) during the first quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

31. Philadelphia Eagles – Edge Princely Umanmielen, Florida

It’s too early for Philadelphia to draft a defensive back with this pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles keep adding to their defensive front, though. They have three defensive ends on their roster set to be free agents after this season. Philadelphia is going to need more hand-in-the-dirt defensive ends. Umanmielen fits that mold and would be a good add for the Eagles.

Miami defensive lineman Leonard Taylor III celebrates after a play. Mandatory credit: Getty Images

32. Kansas City Chiefs – DL Leonard Taylor III, Miami

Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi are slated to be free agents after this season. Kansas City is going to have a big hole to fill if Jones ends up becoming a free agent. That should mean the Chiefs will prioritize the interior of their defensive in next year’s draft. Taylor is still on the board and would be a good addition to Kansas City. He’s been very productive in his two seasons at Miami.

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Way-too-early 2024 NFL mock draft

May 8, 2023May 7, 2023Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Here I am, here I remain.”

– Duke Leto Atreides, “Dune: Part One” (2021)

Even though the 2023 NFL Draft just ended, I wanted to go ahead and look ahead to next year. Like I say every year, despite what the title of this post says, it’s never too early to look ahead to which players will enter the league the following year. This is always a fun exercise because the prospects have barely been scouted so far outside of the top players.

I enjoy watching the scouting process come together. Players are going to rise and fall based on the way they play this season. The board is going to change quite a bit in the next few months. Last year, I thought that the 2023 draft class was going to be deep with talented players. Oh, how I whiffed on that one.

NFL draft classes are typically great every three to four years. Considering the last two draft classes were average at best, history would suggest that next year’s draft class will end up being great. We’ll see if that comes to fruition.

The draft order is based on current Super Bowl LVIII odds. I also reserved the last 14 spots in the order for teams that would be playoff teams going by those odds.

First round:

1. Houston Texans – T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

I doubt Houston will draft another quarterback after just taking C.J. Stroud. I think offensive tackle is going to be this team’s biggest need next year. Tytus Howard and Greg Little will be free agents, and there have been trade rumors surrounding Laremy Tunsil. The Texans will need help at the position and Fashanu is considered the best prospect in next year’s draft class.

2. Arizona Cardinals – QB Caleb Williams, USC

Is anyone sold on Kyler Murray being the quarterback of the future in Arizona? I’m not sure that’s the case now that the Cardinals have a new general manager in their front office. If they end up picking this high next year, I think they’re going to be tempted to pick Williams. He’s considered to be the best quarterback prospect to come through the draft since Trevor Lawrence.

3. Indianapolis Colts – WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Indianapolis needs more offensive weapons and three of its wide receivers are going to be free agents next year, including Michael Pittman Jr. I doubt the Colts will be able to pass legacy pick like Harrison, who’s the son of former Indianapolis receiver and Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison. Getting Anthony Richardson quality pass catchers should be this team’s top priority next year.

4. Tennessee Titans – QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

It feels like this is going to be Ryan Tannehill’s last year with Tennessee. While I think it’s unlikely that the Titans use a premium pick on a quarterback three years in a row, I’m not convinced that Malik Willis or Will Levis are their quarterback of the future. Maye is considered the second-best quarterback prospect next year after Williams. I doubt Tennessee will be able to pass on him.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

I’m sure that Tampa Bay would prefer to draft one of the top quarterbacks, but they’re off the board. I’m still surprised that the Buccaneers neglected the offensive tackle position in this year’s draft. I doubt Luke Goedeke or Cody Mauch are long-term options at tackle. Tampa Bay would be wise to pick Alt, who’s considered one of the top tackle prospects in next year’s draft class.

6. Washington Commanders – Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

Washington is likely going to have to use premium picks on edge rushers next year. The Commanders currently have seven players at the position slated to be free agents next year, including Chase Young and Montez Sweat. If Verse had been in this year’s draft class, he probably would’ve been a top 10 pick. If he’s still on the board, I think the Commanders would be wise to pick him.

7. Los Angeles Rams – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

I wouldn’t rule out the Rams drafting a quarterback. Their roster needs help across the board. Since the Rams hammered the trenches in this year’s draft, I think they should address the cornerback position. The Rams lack difference makers after trading Jalen Ramsey. McKinstry is considered the top corner prospect in next year’s draft class. He’d contribute right away for the Rams.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Edge J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State

It feels like I say it every year, but I think edge rusher is going to be Atlanta’s biggest need next year. The Falcons have ranked in the bottom 10 in both sacks and pressure rate three of the last four seasons. They haven’t done much to fix it either. If Atlanta wants to compete in the NFC, it has to bolster its pass rush. I expect Tuimoloau’s stock to be on the rise after a strong 2022 campaign.

9. New England Patriots – TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

I’m still surprised that New England waited until the sixth round to draft a pass catcher this year. The Patriots are going to need to add offensive weapons next year, specifically at the tight end position. Three of the top four tight ends on New England’s roster are going to be free agents next year. I doubt Bill Belichick will be able to pass on Bowers, who might be the best tight end prospect in years.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Barrett Carter, Clemson

Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the NFL, but it’s lacking difference makers at the linebacker position. The current linebackers on the Steelers’ roster had an average PFF grade of 50 last year. That’s not going to be good enough going forward. Carter is considered to be the top linebacker prospect in next year’s draft class. He’s a versatile player and Pittsburgh can find a spot for him.

11. Chicago Bears – WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

I don’t think Chicago’s work is done when it comes to getting Justin Fields help, specifically at the wide receiver position. The Bears have four receivers slated to be free agents next year, including Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney. Egbuka had a strong sophomore season at Ohio State and his stock is trending up. I think he’d make a good addition to Chicago’s passing attack.

12. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) – Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

With its second first-round pick, I think Chicago will target an edge rusher. The Bears had one of the worst pressure rates in the league last year and they need to improve their pass rush. I’m still surprised that Chicago neglected the position altogether in this year’s draft. Turner might be a little undersized, but he’s been highly productive through two seasons at Alabama.

13. Green Bay Packers – T J.C. Latham, Alabama

I expect offensive tackle to be Green Bay’s biggest need next year. Right tackle Yosh Nijman is slated to be a free agent next year and there’s a real chance that this is left tackle David Bakhtiari’s last year with the Packers. Green Bay is going to have to address the position next year. The best tackle on the board is Latham. I think he’d contribute immediately with the Packers.

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. (51) celebrates after sacking Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Tyler Buchner (not pictured) in the fourth quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Robertson-USA TODAY Sports

14. Seattle Seahawks – DL Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State

Seattle still needs help on its defensive front. That’s the glaring weakness of this team’s roster and I don’t see it changing. I’m still surprised the Seahawks didn’t use one of their first-round picks on a defensive linemen. Hall is the best defensive lineman still on the board and he fills a need for Seattle. The Seahawks have three interior defensive linemen slated to be free agents the next two offseasons.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

15. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Quinn Ewers, Texas

I’m not convinced that Jimmy Garoppolo is a long-term option at quarterback for Las Vegas. I doubt that the other quarterbacks on the Raiders’ roster are long-term options either. They need a succession plan in place. Ewers is an intriguing prospect. He didn’t have the most productive first season as a college starter, but he has the physical traits to develop into a quality player at the next level.

16. Denver Broncos – WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Denver is tied to Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future, so I doubt a quarterback is in play here. I think there’s going to be a purge at the wide receiver position by the Broncos soon. There have been trade rumors surrounding Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler is going to be a free agent next year. Odunze would be a great addition to Denver’s passing game.

17. Arizona Cardinals (from Cleveland via Houston) – CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

Arizona’s cornerback room is one of the worst in the NFL. I don’t think the Cardinals currently have any difference makers at the position, and four corners on their roster are slated to be free agents next year. Arizona will need to add to the position. DeJean is arguably the best corner prospect still on the board. He’s a ballhawk — recording five interceptions last year and eight pass deflections.

18. Baltimore Ravens – WR Malik Nabers, LSU

Baltimore shouldn’t be done adding to its wide receiver room. The Ravens have six receivers on their roster that are going to be free agents next year, including Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor. There’s also a real possibility that Rashad Bateman will be a free agent in 2025. Baltimore needs to keep getting Lamar Jackson help. I expect Nabers to be one of the top receiver prospects next year.

19. New York Giants – DL Maason Smith, LSU

Despite signing Dexter Lawrence to a contract extension, the Giants still need help in the interior of their defensive front. The Giants have five interior defensive linemen slated to be free agents next year, including Leonard Williams and A’Shawn Robinson. Smith missed all of last season due to injury, but I expect him to return to form and be one of the top prospects in next year’s draft class.

Ohio State offensive lineman Donovan Jackson (74) pass blocks during a play against Rutgers. Mandatory credit: Doral Chenoweth/The Columbus Dispatch

20. New Orleans Saints – IOL Donovan Jackson, Ohio State

The interior of New Orleans’ offensive line is a problem right now. The interior offensive linemen on the Saints’ roster posted a PFF grade of 53.3 last year, and Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz are going to be free agents next year. New Orleans needs to get better up front and keep Derek Carr upright. Jackson is considered to be the top interior offensive lineman in next year’s draft class.

21. Minnesota Vikings – QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

It was no secret that Minnesota was looking into quarterbacks heading into this year’s draft. Kirk Cousins is slated to be a free agent next year and I think the organization is ready to move on. If that’s the case, the Vikings will need to use a first-round pick on a quarterback. The best prospect still on the board is Penix. He showed a huge improvement in his development last year.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State

Jacksonville is going to need to add to its secondary next year, specifically at the cornerback position. Tre Herndon will be a free agent next year, and Tyson Campbell will be a free agent the year after that. The Jaguars need to have a long-term option at corner in case they can’t sign Campbell to an extension. Burke is the best corner prospect still on the board.

23. Miami Dolphins – DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

There’s a chance that the interior of Miami’s defensive front is going to be gutted next year. Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis will both be free agents. I’m not convinced that the Dolphins will be able to re-sign both players and losing either player will set Miami back. Drafting Newton will help the Dolphins. He was very productive last year at Illinois and has been rising up draft boards.

24. Los Angeles Chargers – RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

Austin Ekeler is going to be a free agent next year and I doubt the Chargers are going to re-sign him. Ekeler even requested a trade this offseason. I expect the Chargers to be looking for a new starting running back. I’m still surprised that they didn’t draft one. Henderson is considered to be the top running back in next year’s draft class. If he’s on the board, I think the Chargers will pick him.

North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Tony Grimes (1) tackles Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Frank Ladson Jr. (8) during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

25. Detroit Lions – CB Tony Grimes, Texas A&M

Detroit is still going to need to add to its add to its secondary next year. The Lions have six defensive backs that are going to be free agents next year, including four at the cornerback position. Detroit needs to get a long-term option at the position. I wouldn’t be surprised if Grimes ends up being drafted higher than this spot next year. He was very productive at North Carolina.

26. Dallas Cowboys – S Andrew Mukuba, Clemson

Dallas could still use help in the interior of its defensive line, but I think it needs to address the safety position. The Cowboys have seven safeties that are going to be free agents over the next three offseasons, including their top three safeties. Dallas needs to add to that position. Mukuba has been productive through two years at Clemson. He could end up being the top safety prospect in this draft class.

27. New York Jets – DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson

I’m confident that the Jets will sign Quinnen Williams to a contract extension. However, the Jets have four other interior defensive linemen slated to be free agents next year. It’s going to be a position of need for the Jets even if they lock up Williams for the foreseeable future. Orhorhoro has seen a lot of action at Clemson and has been very productive. I could see the Jets taking him with this pick.

This pick is contingent on Aaron Rodgers playing 65% of the team’s snaps, if he reaches that mark then this pick will go to Green Bay.

Texas edge rusher Barryn Sorrell attempted to shed a Washington blocker. Mandatory credit: John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Edge Barryn Sorrell, Texas

I expect Cincinnati to keep adding to its defense. The Bengals will have to make cuts on that side of the ball when Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase get their contract extensions. I think the biggest position of need for Cincinnati next year is edge rusher because Trey Hendrickson will be a free agent. Having Sorrell and Myles Murphy coming off the edge for the next few years will benefit the Bengals.

Oregon Ducks defensive end Brandon Dorlus (3) rushes Eastern Washington Eagles quarterback Gunner Talkington (2) during the second half at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

29. San Francisco 49ers – DL Brandon Dorlus, Oregon

I expect San Francisco to sign Nick Bosa to a long-term contract extension. However, the 49ers are going to have to address the interior of their defensive line next year. Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens, T.Y. McGill, and Michael Dwumfour are going to be free agents. They’re going to need players under contract for the next few years. at the position. I think Dorlus would be a great fit next to Javon Hargrave.

Miami Hurricanes safety James Williams (0) gestures after intercepting the ball as Pittsburgh Panthers wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) reacts leaving the field during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

30. Buffalo Bills – S James Williams, Miami

Micah Hyde and Taylor Rapp are going to be free agents next year. Jordan Poyer is nearing the end of his career and Damar Hamlin is coming off his health scare, too. Buffalo is going to need to add to the safety position soon. At 6’5” and 224 pounds, Williams is an intriguing prospect and I think teams will have a difficult time passing on him. Williams would make a good addition to the Bills’ secondary.

31. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Blake Corum, Michigan

I doubt that GM Howie Roseman will use a first-round pick on a running back. However, Philadelphia will need to address the running back position next year. D’Andre Swift and Boston Scott will be free agents next year. I think Corum would make a good addition to Philadelphia’s offense. He has the ability to make an impact both on the ground and in the passing game.

Kansas State Wildcats offensive lineman Cooper Beebe (50) blocks Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive lineman Tyree Wilson (19) in the first half at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

32. Kansas City Chiefs – IOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State

Kansas City doesn’t have many needs, but its offensive line will need attention. The Chiefs have three interior offensive linemen slated to be free agents in the near future including Nick Allegretti next year. They have to keep Patrick Mahomes upright if they want to maximize their championship window. Beebe probably would’ve been a top 50 pick this year had he not decided to return to Kansas State.