Movie quote of the day:
“You gonna do somethin’ or just stand there and bleed?”
— Wyatt Earp, “Tombstone” (1993)
The road to the Stanley Cup begins this weekend. Sixteen teams competing for a chance to win one of the most coveted trophies in professional sports, behind arguably the NFL’s Lombardi Trophy. This is always one of the most competitive postseasons in all of sports, and it’s why it’s one of my favorite times of the sports calendar.
In previous years, there was an argument that every team that made the Stanley Cup Playoffs had a shot to win the whole thing. However, I’m not sure that’s the case this year. I think the bracket is a little more top heavy than we’re used to seeing, with maybe just four or five legitimate contenders. Some of those teams are looking to win either their first Stanley Cup ever, or first one in a long time.
The storylines may not seem quite as rich as what we had last year, when Colorado was trying to win back-to-back championships, Tampa Bay was trying to win three championships in four years, and Boston was trying to win it all to cap off a record-breaking regular season. There are still some good ones, though. With four Canadian-based teams in the playoffs, which is the most since 2017, can one of them win a Stanley Cup for the first time since 1993? Can the New York Rangers be the first team to break the Presidents’ Trophy curse since 2013? Can Boston find some redemption after last year’s disappointing exit in the first round?
These next few weeks ought to still give us plenty of entertainment.
First round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
WC2. Washington (91 points; 40-31-11) vs. M1. New York Rangers (114 points; 55-23-4)
I just don’t see Washington winning this series. Excluding the COVID-19-impacted postseasons in 2020 and 2021, in the last 20 years, no team has had a worse goal differential and still made the playoffs than Washington (-37) this year. During that same stretch, only two teams with a negative goal differential made it past the first round. The Capitals will likely have a difficult time scoring on the Rangers, who allow just 2.76 goals per game.
Prediction: Rangers in five
M3. New York Islanders (94 points; 39-27-16) vs. M2. Carolina (111 points; 52-23-7)
Like Washington, the Islanders have one of the worst goal differentials (-17) among playoff teams in the last 20 years. However, I’d take the Islanders seriously in this series. They’ve played very well the last few weeks — winning 16 of their last 25 games with a goal differential of +11. This ought to be a competitive series, but I’ll still give the advantage to Carolina. The Panthers have a lot more talent, depth, and consistent goaltending.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
WC1. Tampa Bay (98 points; 45-29-8) vs. A1. Florida (110 points; 52-24-6)
I think Tampa Bay is much closer to the end of its championship window rather than the middle. However, I wouldn’t rule out the Lightning in this series. They rank near the top of the league in goals scored (3.51 per game), and have plenty of postseason experience. My concern with Tampa Bay is its goaltending, which has allowed an average of 3.26 goals per game. That’s not a good omen entering the playoffs. I have to pick Florida to win this series.
Prediction: Panthers in six
A3. Toronto (102 points; 46-26-10) vs. A2. Boston (109 points; 47-20-15)
I think this is a terrible matchup for Toronto. Boston seems to have the Maple Leafs’ number in the postseason — winning three straight series in the first round since 2013. Toronto also hasn’t beaten the Bruins in the regular season since Nov. 2022. This isn’t the best Boston team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I have zero trust in the Maple Leafs. They’ve won just one playoff series since 2005. I expect the Bruins to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Bruins in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
WC2. Vegas (98 points; 45-29-8) vs. C1. Dallas (113 points; 52-21-9)
Vegas might be getting Robin Lehner, Mark Stone, and William Carrier from the long-term injury reserve list. That could might not be as helpful as everyone thinks, though. Hockey is dependent on timing and chemistry and Lehner, Stone, and Carrier have been out of the loop for weeks. They might not help the Golden Knights as much as people think. Regardless, I still expect Dallas to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Prediction: Stars in six
C3. Colorado (107 points; 50-25-7) vs. C2. Winnipeg (110 points; 52-24-6)
Winnipeg has one of the better goalies in hockey in Connor Hellebuyck, which is always beneficial once playoff hockey rolls around. I think Colorado will be a difficult matchup for the Jets, though. The Avalanche boast the league’s best offense — averaging 3.67 goals per game. They’ll likely find the back of the net against Hellebuyck. I don’t trust Winnipeg’s offense, which is one of the worst among playoff teams, to keep up over the course of a series.
Prediction: Avalanche in seven
Western Conference — Pacific Division
WC1. Nashville (99 points; 47-30-5) vs. P1. Vancouver (109 points; 50-23-9)
I worry that Nashville relied too much on goalie Juuse Saros in the regular season. He appeared in the most games of any goalie (64), which might be a reason why he had his worst statistical season since he entered the NHL in 2015. If Saros can’t keep pucks out of the back of the net, this will be a short series. Vancouver has a lot of firepower — averaging 3.40 goals per game — and scoring depth. I don’t know how the Predators can pull off the upset.
Prediction: Canucks in five
P3. Los Angeles (99 points; 44-27-11) vs. P2. Edmonton (104 points; 49-27-6)
This will be a third-straight year that these teams met in the first round. The previous two meetings went at least six games, so this should be a competitive series. I don’t know if Edmonton can make a deep postseason run, but I expect it to advance to the next round. The Oilers will have the best two players on the ice in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Los Angeles just doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Edmonton.
Prediction: Oilers in seven
Second round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
M2. Carolina vs. M1. New York Rangers
The winner of this series will likely represent the East in the Stanley Cup. Even though the Rangers have more star power, I’ll give the slight advantage to Carolina. The Hurricanes are loaded with depth on both ends of the ice. They have 12 different players to score at least 10 goals, and that’s not counting Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov, who were picked up at the trade deadline. The Rangers will have a difficult time defending Carolina’s offensive attack.
Prediction: Hurricanes in seven
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
A2. Boston vs. A1. Florida
I’m having a difficult time seeing Boston winning this series. The Bruins haven’t played well since the start of February — losing 16 of their last 31 games, with a goal differential of -3. Florida is a younger team that has played better down the stretch, and has more depth. The Panthers also have a reliable goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s allowed just 2.37 goals per game. I doubt Boston can get consistent scoring from anyone besides David Pastrňák.
Prediction: Panthers in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
C3. Colorado vs. C1. Dallas
I don’t know just how far Colorado can get this postseason relying mostly on Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and the rest of its offense. I think the Avalanche’s defense will eventually lead to their downfall. They rank in the bottom half of the NHL in goals allowed per game, shots allowed, and save percentage. Dallas should be able to take advantage of that. The Stars have a loaded offense, featuring eight different players to score at least 20 goals.
Prediction: Stars in six
Western Conference — Pacific Division
P2. Edmonton vs. P1. Vancouver
Vancouver is the second-youngest team to make the postseason, and 12th-youngest in the league. The Canucks will likely be a problem for the foreseeable future, but I think their youth will prevent them from making a deep playoff run. While I have concerns about Edmonton’s depth, there are a lot of guys on its roster with postseason experience. We know that the Oilers have McDavid and Draisaitl, but I think they’re better than people think defensively.
Prediction: Oilers in six
Eastern Conference Final
A1. Florida vs. M2. Carolina
Despite having Sam Reinhart, who scored 57 goals in the regular season, I don’t know if Florida is reliable enough offensively to get back to the Stanley Cup. The Panthers rank No. 11 among playoff teams in goals scored per game. They’re a great defensive team to help combat that, but Carolina is a solid offensive team with several reliable goal scorers. I can’t bring myself to pick against the Hurricanes. I think they’re the most complete team in the East.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Western Conference Final
P2. Edmonton vs. C1. Dallas
This is a very bad matchup for Edmonton. The Oilers don’t have the same amount of depth as Dallas. I think the Stars will take advantage of Edmonton’s blue line and goaltending, which is far from elite. On the other side, Dallas is excellent defensively. The Stars’ blue line has allowed the seventh fewest shots in the league, and Jake Oettinger has been solid in the net. I think Dallas will be able to prevent McDavid and Draisaitl from taking over this series.
Prediction: Stars in six
2024 Stanley Cup Final
M2. Carolina vs. C1. Dallas
I picked these teams to make it to the Stanley Cup in the preseason and I’m not wavering on that opinion. I think these are the most balanced teams in the NHL. They have scoring depth and quality goaltending. In a series between teams that are pretty much equal, I have to lean on goaltending and special teams. Carolina holds the advantage in both areas. The Hurricanes rank in the top two in the league in both power play percentage and penalty kill percentage. Since Frederik Andersen’s return at the beginning of March, him and Pyotr Kochetkov have a combined GAA of 1.70 and save percentage of 93.3% in the net. I think Carolina is in great position to win its second Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Conn Smythe winner: Sebastian Aho
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