“You gonna do somethin’ or just stand there and bleed?”
— Wyatt Earp, “Tombstone” (1993)
The road to the Stanley Cup begins this weekend. Sixteen teams competing for a chance to win one of the most coveted trophies in professional sports, behind arguably the NFL’s Lombardi Trophy. This is always one of the most competitive postseasons in all of sports, and it’s why it’s one of my favorite times of the sports calendar.
In previous years, there was an argument that every team that made the Stanley Cup Playoffs had a shot to win the whole thing. However, I’m not sure that’s the case this year. I think the bracket is a little more top heavy than we’re used to seeing, with maybe just four or five legitimate contenders. Some of those teams are looking to win either their first Stanley Cup ever, or first one in a long time.
The storylines may not seem quite as rich as what we had last year, when Colorado was trying to win back-to-back championships, Tampa Bay was trying to win three championships in four years, and Boston was trying to win it all to cap off a record-breaking regular season. There are still some good ones, though. With four Canadian-based teams in the playoffs, which is the most since 2017, can one of them win a Stanley Cup for the first time since 1993? Can the New York Rangers be the first team to break the Presidents’ Trophy curse since 2013? Can Boston find some redemption after last year’s disappointing exit in the first round?
These next few weeks ought to still give us plenty of entertainment.
First round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
New York Rangers left wing Artemi Panarin (10) skates against the Seattle Kraken during the first period at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
WC2. Washington (91 points; 40-31-11) vs. M1. New York Rangers (114 points; 55-23-4)
I just don’t see Washington winning this series. Excluding the COVID-19-impacted postseasons in 2020 and 2021, in the last 20 years, no team has had a worse goal differential and still made the playoffs than Washington (-37) this year. During that same stretch, only two teams with a negative goal differential made it past the first round. The Capitals will likely have a difficult time scoring on the Rangers, who allow just 2.76 goals per game.
Prediction: Rangers in five
Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns (8) and defenseman Jaccob Slavin (74) look on against the Washington Capitals during the first period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
M3. New York Islanders (94 points; 39-27-16) vs. M2. Carolina (111 points; 52-23-7)
Like Washington, the Islanders have one of the worst goal differentials (-17) among playoff teams in the last 20 years. However, I’d take the Islanders seriously in this series. They’ve played very well the last few weeks — winning 16 of their last 25 games with a goal differential of +11. This ought to be a competitive series, but I’ll still give the advantage to Carolina. The Panthers have a lot more talent, depth, and consistent goaltending.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart (13) reacts after scoring against the Montreal Canadiens during the second period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
WC1. Tampa Bay (98 points; 45-29-8) vs. A1. Florida (110 points; 52-24-6)
I think Tampa Bay is much closer to the end of its championship window rather than the middle. However, I wouldn’t rule out the Lightning in this series. They rank near the top of the league in goals scored (3.51 per game), and have plenty of postseason experience. My concern with Tampa Bay is its goaltending, which has allowed an average of 3.26 goals per game. That’s not a good omen entering the playoffs. I have to pick Florida to win this series.
Prediction: Panthers in six
Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand (63) skates with the puck during the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
A3. Toronto (102 points; 46-26-10) vs. A2. Boston (109 points; 47-20-15)
I think this is a terrible matchup for Toronto. Boston seems to have the Maple Leafs’ number in the postseason — winning three straight series in the first round since 2013. Toronto also hasn’t beaten the Bruins in the regular season since Nov. 2022. This isn’t the best Boston team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I have zero trust in the Maple Leafs. They’ve won just one playoff series since 2005. I expect the Bruins to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Bruins in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) skates against the Buffalo Sabres during the third period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Vegas might be getting Robin Lehner, Mark Stone, and William Carrier from the long-term injury reserve list. That could might not be as helpful as everyone thinks, though. Hockey is dependent on timing and chemistry and Lehner, Stone, and Carrier have been out of the loop for weeks. They might not help the Golden Knights as much as people think. Regardless, I still expect Dallas to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Prediction: Stars in six
Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) warms up before a game against the Calgary Flames at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
Winnipeg has one of the better goalies in hockey in Connor Hellebuyck, which is always beneficial once playoff hockey rolls around. I think Colorado will be a difficult matchup for the Jets, though. The Avalanche boast the league’s best offense — averaging 3.67 goals per game. They’ll likely find the back of the net against Hellebuyck. I don’t trust Winnipeg’s offense, which is one of the worst among playoff teams, to keep up over the course of a series.
Prediction: Avalanche in seven
Western Conference — Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson (40) handles the puck against the Florida Panthers in the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
WC1. Nashville (99 points; 47-30-5) vs. P1. Vancouver (109 points; 50-23-9)
I worry that Nashville relied too much on goalie Juuse Saros in the regular season. He appeared in the most games of any goalie (64), which might be a reason why he had his worst statistical season since he entered the NHL in 2015. If Saros can’t keep pucks out of the back of the net, this will be a short series. Vancouver has a lot of firepower — averaging 3.40 goals per game — and scoring depth. I don’t know how the Predators can pull off the upset.
Prediction: Canucks in five
Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) carries the puck around Detroit Red Wings defensemen Moritz Seider (53) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
P3. Los Angeles (99 points; 44-27-11) vs. P2. Edmonton (104 points; 49-27-6)
This will be a third-straight year that these teams met in the first round. The previous two meetings went at least six games, so this should be a competitive series. I don’t know if Edmonton can make a deep postseason run, but I expect it to advance to the next round. The Oilers will have the best two players on the ice in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Los Angeles just doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Edmonton.
Prediction: Oilers in seven
Second round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (31) defends the net in the second period against the Ottawa Senators at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
M2. Carolina vs. M1. New York Rangers
The winner of this series will likely represent the East in the Stanley Cup. Even though the Rangers have more star power, I’ll give the slight advantage to Carolina. The Hurricanes are loaded with depth on both ends of the ice. They have 12 different players to score at least 10 goals, and that’s not counting Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov, who were picked up at the trade deadline. The Rangers will have a difficult time defending Carolina’s offensive attack.
Prediction: Hurricanes in seven
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak (88) scores a goal on a slap shot during the third period against the St. Louis Blues at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
A2. Boston vs. A1. Florida
I’m having a difficult time seeing Boston winning this series. The Bruins haven’t played well since the start of February — losing 16 of their last 31 games, with a goal differential of -3. Florida is a younger team that has played better down the stretch, and has more depth. The Panthers also have a reliable goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s allowed just 2.37 goals per game. I doubt Boston can get consistent scoring from anyone besides David Pastrňák.
Prediction: Panthers in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) controls the puck in the second period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
C3. Colorado vs. C1. Dallas
I don’t know just how far Colorado can get this postseason relying mostly on Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and the rest of its offense. I think the Avalanche’s defense will eventually lead to their downfall. They rank in the bottom half of the NHL in goals allowed per game, shots allowed, and save percentage. Dallas should be able to take advantage of that. The Stars have a loaded offense, featuring eight different players to score at least 20 goals.
Prediction: Stars in six
Western Conference — Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks forward J.T. Miller (9) handles the puck against the St. Louis Blues in the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
P2. Edmonton vs. P1. Vancouver
Vancouver is the second-youngest team to make the postseason, and 12th-youngest in the league. The Canucks will likely be a problem for the foreseeable future, but I think their youth will prevent them from making a deep playoff run. While I have concerns about Edmonton’s depth, there are a lot of guys on its roster with postseason experience. We know that the Oilers have McDavid and Draisaitl, but I think they’re better than people think defensively.
Prediction: Oilers in six
Eastern Conference Final
Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) watches the play against the Boston Bruins during the third period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
A1. Florida vs. M2. Carolina
Despite having Sam Reinhart, who scored 57 goals in the regular season, I don’t know if Florida is reliable enough offensively to get back to the Stanley Cup. The Panthers rank No. 11 among playoff teams in goals scored per game. They’re a great defensive team to help combat that, but Carolina is a solid offensive team with several reliable goal scorers. I can’t bring myself to pick against the Hurricanes. I think they’re the most complete team in the East.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Western Conference Final
Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz (24) and left wing Jamie Benn (14) celebrates a power play goal scored by center Joe Pavelski (not pictured) against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
P2. Edmonton vs. C1. Dallas
This is a very bad matchup for Edmonton. The Oilers don’t have the same amount of depth as Dallas. I think the Stars will take advantage of Edmonton’s blue line and goaltending, which is far from elite. On the other side, Dallas is excellent defensively. The Stars’ blue line has allowed the seventh fewest shots in the league, and Jake Oettinger has been solid in the net. I think Dallas will be able to prevent McDavid and Draisaitl from taking over this series.
Prediction: Stars in six
2024 Stanley Cup Final
M2. Carolina vs. C1. Dallas
I picked these teams to make it to the Stanley Cup in the preseason and I’m not wavering on that opinion. I think these are the most balanced teams in the NHL. They have scoring depth and quality goaltending. In a series between teams that are pretty much equal, I have to lean on goaltending and special teams. Carolina holds the advantage in both areas. The Hurricanes rank in the top two in the league in both power play percentage and penalty kill percentage. Since Frederik Andersen’s return at the beginning of March, him and Pyotr Kochetkov have a combined GAA of 1.70 and save percentage of 93.3% in the net. I think Carolina is in great position to win its second Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six Conn Smythe winner: Sebastian Aho
The NBA regular season ended over the weekend while I was at my brother’s bachelor party in Cincinnati. I was actually worried that I wouldn’t have enough time to write up this post since I had to travel all day Sunday, but I managed to get it done. Some people might think that this post is coming a little early since the playoffs technically don’t start until Saturday, but my readers ought to know that I consider the NBA’s Play-In Tournament to be part of the league’s postseason. This will be the fifth installment of the Play-In Tournament, so I shouldn’t have to explain how it works at this point.
After a few years of having some semblance of balance, it feels like the league went right back to where it was between 2015-20. I think there are only two or three teams that can legitimately win the championship. I consider every other team to just be along for the ride until I see otherwise. Then again, NBA teams are notorious for not taking the regular season seriously. There’s a good chance that some teams are able to turn it on suddenly and play championship-level basketball now that it’s the postseason. We saw it happen last year with the Lakers and Miami, which were both in the Play-In Tournament and made deep postseason runs.
Even though the league has become so top heavy, I still can’t help but feel nostalgic about this time of year. Some of my fondest memories of my youth came watching the NBA postseason late at night while my semester of school was winding down. I really hope teams step up their game these next few weeks. I enjoy parity and having some unpredictability in playoffs.
Play-In Tournament
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) dribbles up court against the Chicago Bulls during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami (46-36) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia (47-35)
With this game in Philadelphia, I’ll give the advantage to the 76ers. Miami has struggled offensively on the road — ranking No. 21 in offensive efficiency. The Heat are a great defensive team, but I’m not convinced they’ll be able to score on Philadelphia, which has been a great defensive team at home. You have to be able to score points consistently to advance in the postseason. Joel Embiid is also expected to be healthy, which will only benefits the 76ers.
Winner: 76ers
Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan (11) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers forward Dean Wade (32) and center Jarrett Allen (31) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Atlanta (36-46) vs. No. 9 Chicago (39-43)
I don’t know if Atlanta is good enough defensively to get out of the play-in tournament. The Hawks might not even be good enough on that end of the court to win this game. They rank No. 27 in the league in defensive efficiency. Chicago has just enough scoring depth — with four different players averaging at least 18 points per game — to take advantage of that mismatch. I also think the Bulls have the coaching advantage in Billy Donovan.
Winner: Bulls
Miami Heat guard Jimmy Butler (22) attempts a shot against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
No. 9 Chicago vs. No. 8 Miami
I doubt Chicago is a good enough team to win this game. The Bulls don’t have the star power to match up with Miami. They’ve also struggled significantly on the road — winning just 19 of 41 games and ranking No. 23 in defensive efficiency. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Heat, who will have the two best players on the court in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. I also think Miami has the coaching advantage in Erik Spoelstra.
Winner: Heat
Western Conference
New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) dunks the ball against Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the second half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) vs. No. 7 New Orleans (49-33)
In essentially a one-game playoff, I’ll give the advantage to LeBron James. He typically saves his best for the postseason and you’ve seen that the last few weeks. The Lakers have won 20 of their last 30 games, and James averaged 26.3 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans has been one of the top defensive teams throughout the regular season, but I’m not convinced it can guard the Lakers well enough to win this game.
Winner: Lakers
Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) shoots the basketball during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State (46-36) vs. No. 9 Sacramento (46-36)
Even though Golden State has been inconsistent this season, I’ll still pick it to win this game. The Warriors have actually been very good on the road — winning 25 games and ranking in the top five in defensive efficiency. Golden State is also a veteran team, whereas Sacramento is one of the younger teams in the league. When these teams met in the postseason last year, the lack of playoff experience was a disadvantage for the Kings.
Winner: Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) dribbles against the Utah Jazz at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State vs. No. 7 New Orleans
Golden State has just been too inconsistent all season, even showing signs of regression. It feels like this will be the end of the Warriors’ run as one of the top teams in the league, which is why I don’t trust them to get out of the play-in tournament. New Orleans is a good team with an ascending star player in Zion Williamson. The Pelicans also rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency at home, so they should be able to stifle Golden State’s offense.
Winner: Pelicans
First round
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) controls the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Boston (64-18)
I find it highly unlikely that Miami gets the same magic that it had last year, when it won the East as a No. 8 seed. That type of run rarely happens in professional sports, specifically in the NBA. I think the Heat will have a difficult time defending and keeping up with Boston’s offense, which ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency and averages 120.6 points per game. I expect this to be a challenging series for the Celtics, but I think they get it done.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Orlando (47-35) vs. No. 4 Cleveland (48-34)
Orlando has been one of the best stories of the season, but I doubt it’ll win this series. The Magic are a very young team that lacks postseason experience. On the other side, Cleveland has a solid squad that’s led by one of the best players in basketball in Donovan Mitchell. Orlando has also been too inconsistent offensively — ranking last among playoff teams in offensive efficiency. I expect the Cavaliers to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Cavaliers in six
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the game against the Chicago Bulls at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Indiana (47-35) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (49-33)
Milwaukee hasn’t played well in recent weeks. The Bucks have posted a record of 19-20 since firing Adrian Griffin back in January — allowing an abysmal 111.8 points per game during that stretch. This could end up being a favorable matchup for Indiana, which averages 123.1 points per game. However, the Pacers are even worse than Milwaukee defensively. The Bucks also have more talent and postseason experience. I think they squeak out a series victory.
Prediction: Bucks in seven
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) brings the ball up court in the fourth quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Philadelphia vs. No. 2 New York (50-32)
Philadelphia won eight games in a row to end the regular season, so it’s a hot team right now. With a healthy Embiid, the 76ers have a shot of winning this series. I have to pick New York to advance, though. The Knicks have been surging the last few weeks — winning 13 of their last 18 games. Losing Julius Randle hurts, but I think New York has enough depth to overcome his absence. The Knicks should also benefit from having home-court advantage.
Prediction: Knicks in seven
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball down the court against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 New Orleans vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City (57-25)
Despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league, Oklahoma City had its best season since Kevin Durant was with the team. Even though they’re inexperienced, I think the Thunder are a real threat to win the West. They have a star player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with some scoring depth. I don’t see Oklahoma City being one-and-done in this postseason.
Prediction: Thunder in six
LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) dribbles against the Golden State Warriors during the second half of the game at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas (50-32) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)
It’s easy to want to pick the Clippers because they have star players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden. However, the Clippers are a team that I don’t trust in the postseason. They’ve won just three playoff series since 2019. Dallas is arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. The Mavericks have won 16 of their last 20 games. The Clippers also aren’t a great defensive team, so I think they’ll have a difficult time defending Luka Dončić.
Prediction: Mavericks in seven
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) celebrates after making a shot against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix (49-33) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (56-26)
I don’t want to do it, but I’ll give the slight advantage in this series to Phoenix. The Suns arguably have the best scoring trio in the league in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Minnesota has been great defensively, but it’ll have a difficult time defending those three players over the course of a series. I’m not convinced that the Timberwolves have a reliable scorer outside of Anthony Edwards. The organization also hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004.
Prediction: Suns in six
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) passes the ball in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Denver (57-25)
I don’t like picking against James in the postseason, but this is feels like a mismatch for the Lakers. Denver has the MVP frontrunner in Nikola Jokić and plenty of scoring depth, including five other players to average a minimum of 10.1 points per game. The Lakers haven’t played well away from home — winning just 19 games and ranking No. 20 in defensive efficiency. It’ll be incredibly difficult for the Lakers to pull off the upset in this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Second round
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) shoots in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Boston
I don’t know if Cleveland has enough reliable scorers to win this series. Boston will try to limit Mitchell’s production, so Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley will have to step up. They’re good players, but I doubt they can be counted on over the course of a series. The Celtics also have a lot more scoring depth, which will be problematic for the Cavaliers’ defense. Boston should get back to the Eastern Conference Finals for a third-straight year.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts after scoring the game-winning basket in overtime against the Sacramento Kings at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 New York
I don’t have much trust in Milwaukee after the way it ended the regular season. The Bucks haven’t been impressive the last few weeks. I’m not even convinced they’ll get past the first round. I feel like I have to pick New York to win this series. The Knicks are playing well right now and they have depth. I also think New York, which ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, should be able to consistently score points against Milwaukee’s porous defense.
Prediction: Knicks in six
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić (77) celibates after forward Tim Hardaway Jr. (not pictured) makes a three point jump shot against the Orlando Magic during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
Dončić has been on fire the last few weeks — averaging 33.2 points per game since mid-February. He’s going to be a problem for Oklahoma City, but I think it’s up to the task. The Thunder rank No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency, so they should be able to slow down Dončić. I don’t think the Mavericks have enough scoring depth to pull off the upset if that happens. This should be an entertaining series, but I have to give the advantage to Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Thunder in six
Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) dribbles against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix vs. No. 2 Denver
There’s no way that I’m picking Phoenix to get the upset in this series. The Suns are one of the more talented teams in the NBA, but they haven’t been a reliable team since acquiring Durant last year. Eventually, teams have to put talent together and show it can win when it matters. Denver is the significantly better team. The Nuggets are great defensively and have plenty of scoring depth to complement Jokić. I expect Denver to make quick work of Phoenix.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Eastern Conference Finals
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) looks to shoot against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro (35) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 New York vs. No. 1 Boston
There’s plenty of room for optimism around New York, but I don’t see it getting past this point. The Knicks just aren’t as talented as Boston right now. With Randle out for the postseason, New York doesn’t have many reliable scorers outside of Jalen Brunson. It’ll be difficult for the Knicks to keep up with the Celtics over the course of a series. It feels like the East is Boston’s to lose, so I expect it to make its second trip to the NBA Finals in the last three years.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Western Conference Finals
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić (15) controls the ball in the second quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
This feels like a tough matchup for Oklahoma City. While I think the Thunder are a legitimate contender, I think their lack of postseason experience will prevent them from getting to the Finals. The main reason why I’m picking Denver to win this series is because Oklahoma City lacks a dynamic big man to defend Jokić, which makes this series a mismatch. If the Thunder can’t limit Jokić’s production, it might end up being a quick victory for the Nuggets.
Prediction: Nuggets in six
2024 NBA Finals
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Boston
It feels like we’re destined for a matchup between these teams in the Finals. They have the most depth and some of the best players in the game at the top of their rotations. Boston feels like a wagon this year, though. The Celtics average nearly 1.2 points per possession, which is the best in the category in over 20 years. I don’t know if any team will be able to slow down the Celtics’ offense this postseason, which has as many as eight quality scoring options on any given day. Defending Jokić will be a very tall order, but I think this Boston team is much better defensively than it was last year. Everything seems to be lining up for the Celtics to win their 18th championship.
Prediction: Celtics in seven Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
“I don’t like it, I don’t agree with it, but I accept it.”
— Lando Calrissian, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018)
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to players against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Purdue (34-4) vs. No. 1 UConn (36-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: UConn -6.5 Over/under: 145.5
Contrary to what we all thought would happen after the way the conference tournaments played out, this NCAA tournament has been pretty normal. The only double-digit seed to advance past the first weekend (and eventually to the Final Four) was a Power 5 school. That’s partly why we have two No. 1 seeds competing in the national championship for the first time since 2021, and just the third time since 2008. UConn and Purdue have been the most consistent teams in this tournament, combining for an average margin of victory of 22.3 points per game. This has a chance to be an entertaining title game.
North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) knocks the ball away from Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After last year’s embarrassing loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers have gotten the monkey off their back by getting to this point. The biggest difference between this Purdue team and last year’s team is a much improved backcourt. In five tournament games, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones have combined to shoot 40.5% from 3-point territory, and committed just 4.6 turnovers per game and averaged nearly 10 points per game apiece. They do a great job of complementing Zach Edey, who’s considered the best player in the country and has averaged 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the tournament. The Boilermakers have also been excellent defensively in their last five games — allowing only 60.2 points per game and holding teams to shoot just 39.3% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. If Purdue continues to shoot well from 3-point range and collect offensive rebounds, it certainly has a chance to knock off the Huskies.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/Arizona Republic-USA TODAY Sports
The defending national champions have shown no signs of slowing down the last few weeks. The Huskies have won 26 of their last 27 games by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. They’ve been impressive offensively in their last five games — shooting 50.8% from the field, and collecting 12 offensive rebounds per game and committing just eight turnovers per game. Unlike the Boilermakers, UConn’s offense has a very balanced scoring attack. The Huskies have had six different players score at least 10 points in a game in tournament play. UConn has also been just as good, if not better, on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies have allowed only 57.2 points per game, and held opposing teams to shoot just 34.6% from the field and 28.1% from beyond the arc. My only concern with UConn is its 3-point shooting, which has been lukewarm at best recently. When you factor that, it’s even more impressive how the Huskies have been able to win games in the tournament so convincingly.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The deciding factor of this game will likely be which team can win in the paint. Even though the Boilermakers have Edey (7’4″), I’m giving that advantage to UConn. The Huskies have more depth in the post with the trio of Donovan Clingan (7’2″), Alex Karaban (6’8″), and Samson Johnson (6’10”), who’ve combined to tally 26 blocks and 80 rebounds in five tournament games. They’ll be a problem for Edey, who isn’t very athletic. If Edey can’t get going, I don’t know how the Boilermakers win. I doubt their backcourt is good enough to pick up the slack given how well UConn has defended 3-pointers. The Huskies have more talent and scoring depth than Purdue, too. I like that UConn has won games in a variety of different ways despite not shooting well from beyond the arc. That’s a sign of a great team. I also think the Huskies will have a significant coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. It just feels like UConn is destined to be the first team to repeat as national champions since Florida did it in 2006-07.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
“Myrmidons! My brothers of the sword! I would rather fight beside you than any army of thousands! Let no man forget how menacing we are, we are lions! Do you know what’s waiting beyond that beach? Immortality! Take it! It’s yours!”
Super Bowl LVIII San Francisco (12-5) vs. Kansas City (11-6) Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas Line: 49ers -1.5 Over/under: 47.5
This Super Bowl will be a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. The same head coaches and a lot of the same players that’ll play in Sunday’s game also played in that game. The last time I remember that happening was when New England and the Giants met in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI. There are other compelling storylines in this matchup, too. Kansas City is trying to be the first team since the 2003-04 Patriots, and eighth team in NFL history, to win back-to-back Super Bowls. Meanwhile, San Francisco could win its sixth Super Bowl in franchise history, which would tie Pittsburgh and New England for the most in the league. We’re getting a historical outcome either way.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (middle) celebrates with the Lamar Hunt Trophy while speaking with CBS broadcaster Jim Nantz during the trophy presentation after the Chiefs’ game against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City has been one of the usual suspects in the NFL for a few years, making its fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years. The Chiefs have had a near improbable run to get to this point. They never put it together in the regular season. Kansas City’s offensive line struggled with pass protection at times, Patrick Mahomes didn’t have much to work with, and Travis Kelce looked like a shell of himself. Not to mention that the Chiefs had to win two road playoff games to win the AFC. That just goes to show how great Andy Reid and Mahomes are as a head coach/quarterback combination.
The strength of Kansas City has to come on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs wouldn’t be in this position without their defense, which has allowed 16.7 points per game, 4.8 yards per play, and a 36% third-down conversion rate in 20 games. They rank in the top 10 in the NFL in each of those three categories. Kansas City’s defense has an excellent pass rush, led by two players that notched 10.5 sacks in Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, which is why it ranks No. 2 in pressure rate. Having an excellent pass rush usually bodes well in big games. The Chiefs also have a pretty good secondary, featuring All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, along with quality veterans in Justin Reid and L’Jarius Sneed. My only concern with Kansas City’s defense is that it’s struggled to stop the run — allowing 113.2 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. That likely won’t bode well against San Francisco’s offense, which will lean on Christian McCaffrey and its run game.
It took time, but Kansas City’s offense appears to have figured things out. The Chiefs have averaged 23.3 points per game and almost 5.6 yards per play in the postseason, which is better than what we saw in the regular season. The reason why Kansas City has turned things around offensively is likely because its offensive line is playing better. Mahomes has had time to throw and Isaiah Pacheco has been effective in the run game. It also helps that Kelce, who’s collected 262 yards and three touchdowns in three playoff games, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have stepped up. That’s taken attention away from Rashee Rice and spread out opposing defenses, which has opened things up for Mahomes. The Chiefs’ offense is in sync right now, but not in the way we’re used to seeing. Kansas City is willing to commit to the run in order to slow the game down. The Chiefs need to stick with that philosophy in order to give Kyle Shanahan as few possessions as possible.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) holds the George Halas Trophy while after winning the NFC Championship football game against the Detroit Lions at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
It’s fair to say that San Francisco has become one of the usual suspects of the NFL. The 49ers are making their third Super Bowl appearance in the last 12 seasons, and second under Shanahan. They’ve had a roller coaster ride of a postseason run to get to this point. San Francisco overcame late second-half deficits in each of its playoff games, including a 17-point deficit in the NFC Championship. The 49ers haven’t looked like the dominant team that we saw in the regular season. The fact that they found ways to win those games is a testament to the experience and resiliency of their roster.
San Francisco has been so successful this season mostly because of its offense, which averages 28.9 points per game, 6.5 yards per play, and 140.5 rushing yards per game. The 49ers rank in the top three in the league in each of those categories. They’re loaded with dynamic offensive weapons in Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and McCaffrey. Each of those players accumulated at least 892 yards, which is pretty astonishing. San Francisco also has Shanahan as its play caller, who’s currently one of the best schemers and offensive minds in the game. I have no doubt that he’ll lean on McCaffrey and be able to scheme Aiyuk, Kittle, and Samuel open. Whether or not the 49ers win this game might come down to Brock Purdy, who hasn’t played well in his last four starts (including the postseason). He’s completed just 63.8% of his passes, thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions, and posted a passer rating of just 85.7 in those starts. Purdy can’t have another subpar performance.
What started as a strength for San Francisco has turned into a weakness. The 49ers’ defense has allowed 24.8 points per game, 5.6 yards per play, and 143.2 rushing yards per game (5.6 yards per carry) in its last five games (excluding Week 18). San Francisco has forced only 11 punts during that stretch, and just three in the playoffs. Those are substantially worse numbers than what we saw from the 49ers earlier in the regular season. The reason for that might be because of a lack of difference makers up front besides Nick Bosa. Arik Armstead, Chase Young, and Javon Hargrave haven’t made much of an impact. San Francisco hasn’t been able to get a good push up front, which is why it’s struggled against the run and to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The 49ers’ secondary isn’t good enough to overcome an inconsistent pass rush. That isn’t where you want to be before facing a great offensive head coach like Andy Reid and a Kansas City offense that’s played much better recently.
San Francisco 49ers and Kansas Chiefs helmets placed outside of Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, which is the site of Super Bowl LVIII. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The more I break down this matchup, the more I’m surprised that the Chiefs are underdogs. I think they control several advantages besides having the better head coach/quarterback combination. San Francisco’s offensive line, which hasn’t been great all season, will have its hands full against Jones and Karlaftis. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if either one of them has a Super Bowl MVP-caliber performance. I also expect Andy Reid to have an effective gameplan against the 49ers’ defense, which has been trending in the wrong direction for the last few weeks. The Chiefs’ offensive line has done a great job of keeping Mahomes upright this postseason, so I’m skeptical if San Francisco’s pass rush can get pressure on him. If Mahomes has time to throw, it could turn into a long game for the 49ers.
I expect both teams to slow the game down in order to limit possessions, so, if you’re a gambler, the under is very much in play. At the end of the day, though, I don’t trust Purdy to play well enough to win. He hasn’t played well for the majority of the postseason. I’m also not convinced that the way San Francisco has played recently is sustainable. The 49ers were outplayed in both of their playoff games. The only reason why they’re in this position is because Green Bay and Detroit practically handed them the win. San Francisco won’t have the same breaks go its way against a veteran team like Kansas City. With the Super Bowl on the line, I have to give the advantage to Andy Reid and Mahomes. I think the Chiefs will hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in five years, and for the second-straight season.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20 Super Bowl MVP: Travis Kelce
“I don’t scratch my head unless it itches and I don’t dance unless I hear some music. I will not be intimidated. That’s just the way it is.”
— Herman Boone, “Remember the Titans” (2000)
It’s hard to believe that the NFL postseason is here. My brain still thinks that October was just a week or two ago. I’m excited for the playoffs because not only did my team make the cut, but it’s a no-lose situation for Green Bay. The Packers made the playoffs despite having the youngest roster in the NFL and a first-year starting quarterback. It doesn’t matter if they lose by 40 in the wild card round or win the Super Bowl, the team will still be in a great spot.
This postseason has a chance to get crazy. I’ve been under the impression that this season is similar to the 2021 season, when not many teams looked great and we ended up with two teams with combined records of just 22-12 in the Super Bowl. The biggest difference between this season and the 2021 season is that there seems to be a huge drop-off after the No. 1 seed in each conference (Baltimore and San Francisco) as opposed to 2021. I wouldn’t just pencil the Ravens and 49ers in the Super Bowl, though. Both No. 1 seeds in each conference have met in the Super Bowl just 13 times since 1975.
There are a lot of compelling storylines as we enter the playoffs, too. Between two of the youngest teams in the NFL making the postseason (Green Bay and Houston), Matthew Stafford and Tyreek Hill playing their former teams in the wild card round, and the potential for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to meet in the playoffs for a third time since 2020, along with Joe Flacco possibly playing his former team in the Divisional Round. There will be a lot to talk about these next few weeks.
Super Wild Card Weekend
AFC:
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) celebrates after making a tackle during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
I want to pick Houston. I think the Texans have the better head coach/quarterback combination in this matchup, along with home-field advantage. The line is also ticking in Houston’s favor, which isn’t insignificant. However, Cleveland has a major advantage in the trenches. The Browns have also played well with Joe Flacco at quarterback.
Prediction: Browns 24, Texans 21
Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon (1) celebrates with quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring a touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Miami (11-6) at No. 3 Kansas City (11-6) GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, Mo. Line: Chiefs -4.5 Over/under: 43.5
I have just a little more trust in Kansas City in this matchup. Miami is too banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins don’t have much of a pass rush anymore, which likely isn’t going to bode well before playing Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid is also a much better head coach than Mike McDaniel. With this game in Arrowhead, I have to pick the Chiefs.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 17
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs the ball in for a touch down in the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Pittsburgh (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo (11-6) Highmark Stadium Orchard Park, N.Y. Line: Bills -10 Over/under: 35.5
I have a difficult time seeing Pittsburgh winning this game, especially without T.J. Watt. The Steelers have played much better offensively since starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but I still don’t trust their offense. Buffalo’s defense has been excellent at home all season — allowing just 14.7 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. I expect the Bills to get the win.
Prediction: Bills 23, Steelers 16
NFC:
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) celebrate a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Philadelphia (11-6) at No. 4 Tampa Bay (9-8) Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Fla. Line: Eagles -3 Over/under: 43.5
I don’t have any trust in Philadelphia right now. The Eagles haven’t only lost five of their last six games, but they’ve looked like one of the worst teams in the league during that stretch. I’m not confident in it at all, but I’ll pick Tampa Bay to win this game. The Buccaneers have played well defensively in their last six games — allowing just 16.3 points per game and 4.9 yards per play.
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Eagles 17
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell congratulates tight end Sam LaPorta (87) after LaPorta caught a touchdown pass against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at No. 3 Detroit (12-5) Ford Field Detroit Line: Lions -3 Over/under: 51.5
I think Detroit is catching the Rams at the wrong time. The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the NFL in their last eight games (excluding Week 18) — averaging 29.2 points per game, 6.1 yards per play, and 141.7 rushing yards per game (4.7 yards per carry). The Lions’ defense, which has struggled at times, will have a difficult time defending the Rams’ offense.
Prediction: Rams 31, Lions 24
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) reacts during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Green Bay (9-8) at No. 2 Dallas (12-5) AT&T Stadium Arlington, Texas Line: Cowboys -7 Over/under: 50.5
I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out Green Bay. I actually think this is a more favorable matchup for the Packers than people think. Aaron Jones could run up and down Dallas’ defense, and Green Bay’s offense has been excellent against the blitz recently. I don’t trust the Packers’ defense, though. The Cowboys have more playoff experience, so they’re better equipped to win this game.
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Packers 27
Divisional Round
AFC:
Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) celebrates a touchdown with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Cleveland at No. 1 Baltimore (13-4)
I just don’t think this Cleveland team is capable of winning more than one playoff game. Joe Flacco has been a great story, but Baltimore should win this game. The Ravens have been excellent at home, with a +134 point differential. I doubt the Browns’ offense will be able to score enough points to win on Baltimore’s defense, which ranks No. 1 in points allowed per game.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 13
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid (center) looks on ahead of quarterback Patrick Mahomes (second from right) and tight end Travis Kelce (right) during the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Kansas City at No. 2 Buffalo
This would be the first road playoff game for Mahomes, and I don’t know what to expect. The Chiefs’ offense has struggled away from home — averaging just 20.8 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. I also don’t trust Kansas City because it’s been off all season. I doubt the Chiefs can turn things around in time for the postseason. I think the Bills advance to the next round.
Prediction: Bills 24, Chiefs 20
NFC:
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates after scoring during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams at No. 1 San Francisco (12-5)
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams go on a deep postseason run, but this will be a difficult matchup for them. San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the NFL — allowing just 19.1 points per game and 4.9 yards per play at home. The 49ers have also been so good this season. I just don’t see them being one-and-done in the playoffs, especially with a week to rest up.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) catches a pass for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Tampa Bay at No. 2 Dallas
Barring any injuries, I don’t see Tampa Bay winning two playoff games. The Buccaneers aren’t good enough offensively, and Baker Mayfield might be injured. They’ll have a difficult time moving the ball on Dallas’ defense, which has one of the best pass rushes in the league. I have more trust in Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott, so I expect the Cowboys to win comfortably.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 17
Championship Sunday
AFC Championship:
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) celebrates with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Buffalo at No. 1 Baltimore
I’m not convinced that Buffalo is consistent enough offensively to win the AFC. The Bills didn’t play that well to end the regular season — averaging just 24 points per game and 5.5 yards per play in their last three games. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off Baltimore. The Ravens have the MVP front-runner in Lamar Jackson and the best statistical defense in the league.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 21
NFC Championship:
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates with San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Chris Conley (84) after a play during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Dallas at No. 1 San Francisco
I expect this game to be much different than when these teams played in the regular season. I still think San Francisco will win, though. The 49ers’ offense is balanced enough to neutralize Dallas’ pass rush. The Cowboys have struggled against the run and San Francisco runs the ball very well — averaging 140.5 yards per game on the ground (4.8 yards per carry).
Prediction: 49ers 31, Cowboys 20
Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco vs. Baltimore
Turnovers were a big reason why Baltimore won the game between these teams in the regular season. I find it unlikely that the Ravens will be able to force five turnovers once again. Baltimore’s defense has also been vulnerable against the run, so I expect San Francisco to lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey and its run game. I think the 49ers win their sixth championship.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Ravens 23 Super Bowl MVP: Christian McCaffrey
“I like the smell of my hair treatment; the pleasing odor is half the point.”
— Ulysses Everett McGill, “O Brother, Where Art Thou?” (2000)
New Year’s Six bowls record: 2-4 (33.3%) 2023 record: 119-53 (69.1%) All-time record: 1,055-514 (67.2%)
College Football Playoff National Championship No. 2 Washington (14-0) vs. No. 1 Michigan (14-0) NRG Stadium Houston Line: Michigan -4.5 Over/under: 56.5
I highly doubt that anyone had these teams playing in the national championship in the preseason. I know I didn’t. This is the first time that an SEC team isn’t in the national championship since 2014, and this matchup is between future Big Ten opponents. There’s some compelling storylines in this game, too. Jim Harbaugh, who’s one of the top head coaches in the game, can add to his legacy by winning his first championship. On the other side, Washington can win the national championship for the Pac-12 before the conference essentially dissolves later this year. We’re guaranteed a great story no matter which team wins this game.
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (right) celebrates with teammates hoisting the Sugar Bowl Trophy after their game against the Texas Longhorns in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Washington has had an almost improbable season. Not because no one expected the Huskies to be any good, but because they’ve won eight games by a combined 39 points. I’ve picked against this team several times this season only to be proven wrong each time. I’m almost under the impression that Washington is a “team of destiny.” The Huskies now have a chance to win their first national championship since 1991, and third in program history.
The strength of this team is its offense. Washington has an excellent passing attack, led by future first-round picks in Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze. Penix arguably should’ve won the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 4,648 yards and 35 touchdowns, and Odunze compiled 1,553 yards and 13 touchdowns. Those players are the reason why Washington’s offense was one of the best in the country — averaging 37.6 points per game and 7.2 yards per play. Don’t overlook the Huskies’ rushing attack, especially if Dillon Johnson plays this game. Washington has run the ball effectively when needed. Michigan’s defense will have a difficult time defending this offense.
My concern with the Huskies is their defense. They’ve allowed 25.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play against Power 5 competition. Is that because Washington’s offense has been so good that the bulk of those numbers have come in garbage time while the defense is playing soft? I doubt it. My main area of concern is that the Huskies have struggled to defend the run — allowing 134.4 yards per game (4.3 yards per carry). I don’t think that’ll bode well against the Wolverines. I firmly believe that Harbaugh and his staff are content to run the ball every play (like we saw against Penn State) if it’s working, unlike what Steve Sarkisian and Texas did in the Sugar Bowl.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh (center) celebrates with quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) and running back Blake Corum (2) after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan has arguably faced more adversity this season than any other team in the CFP era. Drama has surrounded the program on and off the field dating back to the summer. Harbaugh has been suspended for three games two different times this season — the first suspension for recruiting violations and the second for the sign-stealing scandal. The Wolverines rallied and won every game to this point anyway. That’s a sign of great team leadership.
I think Michigan has made it to this game because of its defense. The Wolverines have been excellent on that side of the ball — allowing just 11.5 points per game, 4.3 yards per play, and 96.2 rushing yards per game (3.1 yards per carry) against Power 5 competition. Some of that might be inflated because there weren’t many great offenses in the Big Ten. However, if Washington can’t run the ball effectively and must throw the ball, I actually think that benefits Michigan. The Wolverines rank in the top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed per game, passing efficiency, and sacks. I expect the Huskies to make some plays through the air, but opportunities will be limited in this matchup.
If I have to pick a weakness on Michigan’s team, I have to say its offense. The Wolverines aren’t exactly dynamic on that side of the ball. Michigan likes to lean on its run game, which averages 159.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. The Wolverines might run the ball on almost every play in order to keep the clock ticking and limit possessions for Washington’s offense. The best chance for the Huskies to win this game is to slow down Michigan’s run game. If both teams have to throw the ball in order to move the ball, I don’t have as much trust in J.J. McCarthy to outperform Penix. The Wolverines also don’t have as many great pass catchers as Washington.
A general view of NRG stadium ahead of the College Football Playoff national championship game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Washington Huskies. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The matchup between Michigan’s offense and the Huskies’ defense will likely decide this game. Given how Washington’s defense has struggled to defend the run, I can’t help but think that the Wolverines will try to run the ball effectively. That’s the best way to limit possessions for Penix and the Huskies’ offense. Washington has a talented defensive front, but it specializes in rushing the passer. In fact, the Huskies rank No. 116 in the country in tackles for loss. That won’t be good enough to slow down Michigan’s run game. I expect Harbaugh and his staff to turn this matchup into a street fight (similar to the way the Wolverines handled the Penn State game back in early November).
It shouldn’t be overlooked how well Michigan’s defense has defended the pass, too. The Wolverines jumped out to big leads several times, which forced opposing teams to throw the ball, and they still defended the pass extremely well. I’m not convinced that Penix and Washington’s offense will be as effective through the air in this matchup. I’m also a firm believer that football games are decided in the trenches and I think the Wolverines have the advantage in that area. Lastly, it feels like this is Harbaugh’s year. The Wolverines have fought so hard for him this season and I don’t them not showing up for this game. I think Michigan wins its first national championship since 1997.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates a first down in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic No. 9 Missouri (10-2) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (11-1) AT&T Stadium Arlington, Texas Line: Ohio State -3.5 Over/under: 48.5
It’s very telling that the line of this game continues to shift in Ohio State’s favor. The Buckeyes have key players expected to play like Emeka Egbuka and Denzel Burke, and possibly even Marvin Harrison Jr. I also doubt Missouri is good enough defensively to win. The Tigers have allowed 23.5 points per game, 5.7 yards per play, and 144.7 rushing yards per game against Power 5 competition.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Missouri 21
Saturday:
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) hands off the ball to running back Kaytron Allen (13) during the first half against Michigan State at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl No. 11 Ole Miss (10-2) vs. No. 10 Penn State (10-2) Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta Line: Penn State -3.5 Over/under: 48.5
I don’t think this is a favorable matchup for Ole Miss. The Rebels have struggled defensively against Power 5 competition — allowing 26.4 points per game and 158.5 rushing yards per game (4.1 yards per carry). Penn State has an excellent rushing attack, which averages 186.7 yards per game (4.6 yards per carry). I expect the Nittany Lions to run the ball effectively and keep Ole Miss’ offense off the field.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Ole Miss 24
Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) celebrates scoring a touchdown with offensive lineman Earnest Greene III (71) in the first quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Capital One Orange Bowl No. 6 Georgia (12-1) vs. No. 5 Florida State (13-0) Hard Rock Stadium Miami Line: Georgia -16.5 Over/under: 43.5
I don’t know what to expect from Florida State after getting left out of the College Football Playoff. I doubt the Seminoles win this game, though. They played poorly offensively after the injury to Jordan Travis — averaging just 20 points per game, 3.6 yards per play, and 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. Georgia is the much better team right now and I expect it to win this game comfortably.
Prediction: Georgia 34, Florida State 17
Monday:
Oregon Ducks tight end Terrance Ferguson (3) celebrates with team mates after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl No. 23 Liberty (13-0) vs. No. 8 Oregon (11-2) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: Oregon -17.5 Over/under: 66.5
I don’t know if Liberty is that good of a team. The Flames have one of the worst strength of schedules in the country. I’m also not convinced that they’re good enough defensively to win this game — allowing 27.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play in their last seven games. That won’t bode well against Oregon’s offense, which averages 44.2 points per game and 7.5 yards per play. Bo Nix is expected to play, too.
Prediction: Oregon 45, Liberty 24
Michigan Wolverines defensive back DJ Waller Jr. (13) and defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) celebrate after a turnover during the second half of the Big Ten Championship game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game No. 4 Alabama (12-1) vs. No. 1 Michigan (13-0) Rose Bowl Pasadena, Calif. Line: Michigan -1.5 Over/under: 44.5
Michigan hasn’t given me a reason to trust it to win this game. The Wolverines have fallen short in the Playoff the last two years. With a spot in the national championship on the line, I give the advantage to Nick Saban. Alabama ended the season on a strong note — averaging 33.8 points per game, 6.8 yards per play, and 178 rushing yards per game in its last six games against Power 5 competition.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Michigan 20
Texas Longhorns linebacker Morice Blackwell Jr. (37) celebrates with teammates during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl No. 3 Texas (12-1) vs. No. 2 Washington (13-0) Caesars Superdome New Orleans Line: Texas -4.5 Over/under: 62.5
I’ve picked against Washington many times and have been proven wrong each time, but I think its luck will run out. Texas holds a few advantages in this matchup. The Huskies’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Longhorns’ defense is excellent against the run — allowing just 80.8 yards per game. Michael Penix Jr. will make plays through the air, but I doubt it’ll be enough to will Washington to victory.
2023 World Series Arizona (84-78) vs. Texas (90-72) Odds: Rangers -174
For someone that hadn’t really watched the MLB postseason (mostly due to watching football games instead), I’m looking forward to this World Series matchup. Not many people predicted Texas and Arizona to make the playoffs in the preseason (myself included). Both teams are way ahead in their competitive cycles, and now have a chance to win it all. This is also the first time since 2014 that two wild card teams will compete in the World Series. This should be very exciting.
Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) reacts after hitting a double in the third inning during game three of the NLCS for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to believe that Arizona has made it to this point so quickly. The Diamondbacks were supposed to be entering a rebuild that would take years for them to get back to being competitive after moving on from players like Patrick Corbin, Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Paul Goldschmidt. Remember, Arizona lost 110 games back during the 2021 season. This organization has done an excellent job putting this roster together. Now, the Diamondbacks are just four wins away from winning their second World Series title.
Arizona has done a great job of scoring runs in the postseason despite not hitting the ball well. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has a batting average of .247 with only 18 home runs. Aggressive base running is the main reason why Arizona is in this position. The Diamondbacks have 16 stolen bases, which is tied for the most among playoff teams. Arizona also has had quality pitching from starters Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt, and from relievers Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, Paul Sewald, and Luis Frías. It’ll be difficult to score on this team after the sixth inning.
Even though I just praised the pitching of the Diamondbacks, it might also be my biggest concern. Arizona doesn’t have much depth in its starting rotation outside of Kelly, Pfaadt, and Zac Gallen. Having a great bullpen is one of the keys to winning a World Series. The Diamondbacks might be relying on their bullpen too much, though. Arizona needs better outings from Gallen, who’s considered its ace, to give it the best chance of winning this series.
Texas Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia (53) reacts after hitting a solo home run during the second inning in game four of the ALCS against the Houston Astros for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Like Arizona, Texas lost over 100 games back in 2021 and has been slowly trending in the right direction since then. The Rangers have spent money in recent years to acquire quality veterans in Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager. They’ve also developed their young prospects, and made good trades to acquire Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery. Hiring Bruce Bochy, who won three World Series when he was San Francisco’s manager from 2007-19, was a great decision, too. Texas is now in a great position to win its first championship in the organization’s history.
The Rangers have made it to this point mostly because of their offense – averaging 5.9 runs per game in 12 postseason games. Adolis García and Seager have been the driving force of Texas’ offense. Those two players have a combined for a batting average of .329, 10 home runs, and 26 RBIs. Arizona’s pitching is going to have a difficult time slowing down the middle of the Rangers’ lineup. Texas has also had great production from its pitching, with Eovaldi, Montgomery, Cody Bradford, Martín Pérez, Josh Sborz, and Aroldis Chapman having ERAs under 3.00.
My concern with the Rangers is where their offensive production is going to come if García and Seager’s bats cool off. Josh Jung and Evan Carter have hit the ball pretty well this postseason, but they have half the amount of combined RBIs (13) as García and Seager. Plus, Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim, and Leody Tavares are each hitting below .250. Texas is likely going to need García and Seager to stay hot to give it the best chance of winning this series.
I do get “team of destiny” vibes from Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been underdogs in each of their postseason series. I don’t want to pick against them, but I’m giving the advantage to Texas in this series. The Rangers are playing excellent baseball, both offensively and defensively. I also think they control almost every advantage in this matchup.
I’m just not convinced that Arizona’s style of play is sustainable to win the World Series. The Diamondbacks haven’t had enough offensive production outside of Marte. They’ll also have a difficult time winning this series if Gallen doesn’t find the stuff he had from the first half of the regular season. Texas’ bats have been hot this postseason. I think the Rangers will be able to get after Arizona’s starting rotation and wear down its bullpen over the course of this series.
The Diamondbacks have been a great story, but there’s a reason why they were only six games above .500 in the regular season. I think they have too much youth and their luck is going to eventually end. Texas is the more veteran team and it has one of the best managers in MLB history in Bochy. I think the Rangers win their first World Series.
Prediction: Rangers in six World Series MVP: Adolis García
“Remember kid, there’s heroes and there’s legends. Heroes get remembered but legends never die, follow your heart kid, and you’ll never go wrong.”
– Babe Ruth, “The Sandlot” (1993)
The calendar has turned to October. The temperature is starting to cool off. The leaves are changing colors. While this time of year is mostly associated with football season, it also means that the MLB postseason is upon us.
Baseball’s regular season was full of surprises. There were several teams that vastly exceeded expectations like Baltimore, Texas, Miami, Cincinnati, the Chicago Cubs, and Arizona. Three of those four teams clinched playoff spots, and one won over 100 games. There were also several teams that underperformed and missed out on the postseason like the New York Yankees and New York Mets, Cleveland, St. Louis, and San Diego.
I’m not sure this bracket is as open as it was last year. I think there are likely four teams that can legitimately win the World Series. Then, possibly another two or three teams that could go on a run under the right circumstances. Given the way the regular season panned out, I think that means we’re in for an entertaining postseason with a few surprises.
American League wild card round (best-of-three series)
Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz (2) hits an rbi double against the Seattle Mariners in the seventh inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Texas (90-72) vs. No. 4 Tampa Bay (99-63)
I have a difficult time seeing Texas winning this series. The Rangers have struggled since mid-August – losing 24 of their last 42 games. Their starting pitching rotation has also taken a hit, with injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy. This should be a favorable matchup for Tampa Bay. The Rays’ offense ranked in the top five in all of baseball in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and stolen bases. They should be able to exploit Texas’ battered pitching.
Prediction: Rays in two
Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (4) throws the ball to first base for a double against the Tampa Bay Rays in the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Toronto (89-73) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (87-75)
I have a difficult time trusting Minnesota. The Twins have won one postseason series dating back to 2002. I feel better about Toronto. The Blue Jays have a solid starting pitching rotation with Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Yusei Kikuchi. Those four pitchers posted a combined ERA of 3.56. Toronto also has a potent offense, which ranked in the top eight in baseball in batting average and on-base percentage. This feels like a bad matchup for Minnesota.
Prediction: Blue Jays in three
National League wild card round (best-of-three series)
Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) points to his bench after hitting a home run during the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Miami (84-77) vs. No. 4 Philadelphia (90-72)
Best-of-three series often come down to which team has better pitching. Miami has talented starting pitchers in Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Eury Pérez. I’m not convinced that they’ll be able to prevent Philadelphia’s offense, which ranked in the top 10 in baseball in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, from scoring too many runs, though. I also think the experience of the Phillies will be too much for the Marlins.
Prediction: Phillies in three
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) pitches against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Arizona (84-78) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (92-70)
This is another matchup that I think experience will get the better of youth. Arizona has one of the youngest teams in baseball, with an average age of 28.6 years old. Milwaukee also has much better pitching in this matchup. The Brewers have one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Corbin Burnes (a former Cy Young winner), along with the No. 2-ranked bullpen in ERA. I think runs are going to be hard to come by for the inexperienced Diamondbacks.
Prediction: Brewers in two
AL Divisional Round (best-of-five series)
Baltimore Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander (25) greeted by catcher Adley Rutschman (35) following his two run home run in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Tampa Bay vs. No. 1 Baltimore (101-61)
It’s one thing for a young team to have success in the regular season, but it’s another to have it in the postseason. Baltimore has been a great story, but I just don’t see it winning the World Series. I worry about the Orioles’ pitching, which took a hit with All-Star closer Félix Bautista undergoing Tommy John Surgery. I have to give the advantage to Tampa Bay. The Rays are a veteran team with a lot of playoff experience, along with one of the best managers in baseball in Kevin Cash.
Prediction: Rays in four
Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) reacts after hitting a home run against the San Diego Padres in the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Toronto vs. No. 2 Houston (90-72)
I don’t see Toronto getting past Houston. The Astros are the more experienced team. They’ve made it to the ALCS or World Series each season since 2017. Houston also played really well in recent weeks – winning 40 of its last 71 games, which allowed it to win the AL West division. I think the Blue Jays are going to have a difficult time outscoring the Astros. Houston ranked in the top five in baseball in runs scored, batting average, and on-base percentage.
Prediction: Astros in four
NL Divisional Round (best-of-five series)
Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley (27) celebrates after a home run with first baseman Matt Olson (28) against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Philadelphia vs. No. 1 Atlanta (104-58)
I have a difficult time seeing Atlanta losing this series after the regular season it just had. The Braves led baseball in wins and ranked No. 1 in baseball in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. They also have one of the better starting pitching rotations and bullpens. Philadelphia has the pitching and offense to pull off the upset. It’s just going to be difficult to get the better of Atlanta over the course of a five-game series.
Prediction: Braves in four
Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts (50) slides into second base to beat a throw to San Diego Padres second baseman Ha-Seong Kim (7) for a stolen base in the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)
Don’t be so quick to rule out Milwaukee in this series. The Brewers have been red hot since the All-Star Break – winning 42 of their last 70 games with a run differential of +94. However, I’m going to pick the Dodgers to win. They just have too much star power and experience. The Dodgers have reached the NLCS or World Series four times in the last seven seasons. Milwaukee should make things interesting, but the Dodgers’ talented roster will propel them to the next round.
Prediction: Dodgers in five
ALCS (best-of-seven series)
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow (20) throws a pitch against the New York Yankees in the second inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Tampa Bay vs. No. 2 Houston
The odds of making it to the World Series for a third-consecutive season seems unlikely. The New York Yankees were the last team to do that between 1998-2001. I don’t think that bodes well for Houston, so I’m going to give the advantage to Tampa Bay. I’ve been impressed with the Rays. They lost two of their best players in Wander Franco and Shane McClanahan and still found a way to win almost 100 games. I feel really good about Tampa Bay winning the AL.
Prediction: Rays in six
NLCS (best-of-seven series)
Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) reacts after a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. No. 1 Atlanta
It’s impressive that the Dodgers were able to have the season they did given their injuries. I think the injuries to their starting pitching rotation, which includes Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May, will come back to bite them in this series. Atlanta has too much firepower offensively – averaging 5.8 runs per game. The Dodgers might win games when Clayton Kershaw is on the mound, but I can’t trust the rest of their rotation.
Prediction: Braves in six
2023 World Series (best-of-seven series)
Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
I need to see a small-market team like Tampa Bay win the World Series before I believe that it can. I also think not having Franco and McClanahan will hurt the Rays at some point this postseason. Tampa Bay has the pitching – particularly in the bullpen – to make this a competitive series. I’m going to pick Atlanta to win, though. I think the Braves are the most complete team in baseball. Their lineup is loaded with star players with Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies. Atlanta also has a quality starting pitching rotation, led by Spencer Strider, and bullpen. I think the Braves will win their second World Series title in three seasons.
Prediction: Braves in seven World Series MVP: Spencer Strider
All Things Sports from a Millennial 