Biggest riser: Los Angeles Chargers (+16) Biggest faller: Cleveland, Tampa Bay (-10)
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
1. Kansas City Chiefs Previous: 1
I see no reason to drop the back-to-back reigning champions in my power rankings. I still consider the Chiefs to be the best team in the league. As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, they’ll be one of the contenders.
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) celebrates with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
2. Baltimore Ravens Previous: 3 (+1)
I still view Baltimore as one of the top teams in the AFC. The Ravens have the reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson and a great head coach in John Harbaugh. Baltimore also added some good players to its roster this offseason.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) celebrates in the end zone with wide receiver Kalif Raymond (11) and wide receiver Jameson Williams (9) after scoring a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
3. Detroit Lions Previous: 4 (+1)
I doubt Detroit will regress. The Lions have one of the best rosters in the league. They also improved their secondary this offseason, which was a big weakness last year. Detroit might be the best team in the NFC right now.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
4. San Francisco 49ers Previous: 2 (-2)
It feels like this season will be San Francisco’s last chance to win a Super Bowl with its current core. The 49ers will likely have some cap casualties next year. We’ll see if San Francisco can avoid a Super Bowl hangover.
Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) talk during the first half of the game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
5. Cincinnati Bengals Previous: 15 (+10)
With Joe Burrow back healthy, I expect Cincinnati to be in the mix to win the Super Bowl. The Bengals have one of the better rosters and head coaches in the league. Cincinnati also had a great offseason.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hands the ball off to running back James Cook (4) in the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
6. Buffalo Bills Previous: 5 (-1)
I expect Buffalo to pull back a bit after having so much roster turnover this offseason. I doubt the Bills are as good as we’ve seen them the last four years. As long as Josh Allen is healthy, though, Buffalo will be in the mix.
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) celebrate a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
7. Philadelphia Eagles Previous: 12 (+5)
I’m not ready to give up on Philadelphia. We’re just one year removed from the Eagles nearly winning the Super Bowl. I thought this team improved this offseason. There’s a lot of pressure on Nick Sirianni to get things right.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) high fives head coach Matt LaFleur after throwing a touchdown pass during the second quarter of their game against the Chicago Bear at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
8. Green Bay Packers Previous: 7 (-1)
I don’t think Green Bay is going anywhere. The Packers added some quality players to their roster, which is one of the youngest in the NFL. If Jordan Love plays like he did at the end of last year, Green Bay can win the Super Bowl.
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates his touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fourth quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
9. Houston Texans Previous: 8 (-1)
Like Green Bay, I don’t think Houston is going anywhere. The Texans are a young team with an ascending quarterback in C.J. Stroud. DeMeco Ryans also proved himself as one of the better head coaches in the league.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates a touchdown with teammates during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
10. Dallas Cowboys Previous: 9 (-1)
Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy are both entering the final year of their contracts. There’s a lot of pressure on Dallas this season, more so than usual. The Cowboys will still be good, but I think they pull back.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay watches game action against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
11. Los Angeles Rams Previous: 10 (-1)
It’s hard to tell just how good the Rams will be without Aaron Donald. Losing a player of that caliber will likely have a negative impact on the Rams. They still have Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay to lead them, though.
Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh speaks at an introductory press conference at YouTube Theater at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
12. Los Angeles Chargers Previous: 28 (+16)
The Chargers had a lot of roster turnover this offseason. I still expect them to be one of the better teams in the league because of Jim Harbaugh, though. The Chargers will have a chance to win a lot of games because of him.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) talks with Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel (right) during a timeout against the Washington Commanders during the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
13. Miami Dolphins Previous: 13
I don’t see Miami being as good this year as it’s been the last few years. The Dolphins regressed quite a bit this offseason. It’s unclear if Tua Tagovailoa will be with the team after this year. I’d sell stock in this team.
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
14. Atlanta Falcons Previous: 27 (+13)
Atlanta became a playoff team this offseason. The Falcons already had a decent roster. They just needed a quarterback, and they signed Kirk Cousins. Atlanta should be considered the favorite to win the NFC South division.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) calls a play at the line against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
15. Jacksonville Jaguars Previous: 17 (+2)
Remember, Jacksonville made the playoffs in 2022 and won eight of its first 11 games last year. Trevor Lawrence’s injury derailed the team’s season. The Jaguars have question marks, but I still think they’re a good team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Previous: 6 (-10)
Tampa Bay was a great story last year, but I don’t think it’ll replicate that success. The Buccaneers are getting older and we know Baker Mayfield is limited as a quarterback. The NFC South also got better this offseason.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
17. Indianapolis Colts Previous: 19 (+2)
The future could be bright in Indianapolis. Shane Steichen did great things with the Colts last year. I need to see how Anthony Richardson performs before I start thinking this team can compete in the AFC, though.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
18. Pittsburgh Steelers Previous: 14 (-4)
I actually think Pittsburgh improved quite a bit this offseason. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are both upgrades over Kenny Pickett. The Steelers also had a great draft. We’ll see if Mike Tomlin can get this team back on track.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) signals to his team against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
19. Arizona Cardinals Previous: 23 (+4)
Arizona has a legitimate chance to be a playoff team in the NFC this year. The Cardinals were kind of competitive last year and they improved this offseason. Having Kyler Murray for a full season should help, too.
Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Chicago Bears as the No. 1 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
20. Chicago Bears Previous: 20
I don’t know if any team improved more than Chicago this offseason. The Bears added to their roster during free agency, and then got their next franchise quarterback in Caleb Williams. This team might make the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) celebrates after making a tackle during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
21. Cleveland Browns Previous: 11 (-10)
I doubt Cleveland will be as good as last year. The Browns were 6-2 in one-possession games. That kind of luck likely won’t happen in back-to-back seasons. I’m also not convinced Deshaun Watson is good anymore.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) reacts to quarterback Taysom Hill (7) making a touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
22. New Orleans Saints Previous: 18 (-4)
New Orleans could be a playoff team or finish with a losing record. The Saints have talent on their roster, but their head coach/quarterback combination is one of the worst in the NFL. This team needs to enter a true rebuild.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrate after Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught a pass for a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
23. Seattle Seahawks Previous: 16 (-7)
I originally had Seattle higher in my power rankings. I had to remind myself that Pete Carroll isn’t with the Seahawks anymore. I think it’s fair to assume Seattle will regress under rookie head coach Mike Macdonald.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) throws a pass against the New York Giants during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
24. New York Jets Previous: 29 (+5)
There’s a good chance that this season will be a disaster for the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. I also think Robert Saleh is in over his head as head coach. I’m not buying the hype this year.
Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell looks up at the scoreboard in the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
25. Minnesota Vikings Previous: 25
Minnesota will likely take a step back after losing Kirk Cousins. The Vikings have talent on their roster, but they’ll have a difficult time being competitive with either Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy starting under center.
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton watches play against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
26. Denver Broncos Previous: 24 (-2)
I’m not convinced that Bo Nix is an upgrade at quarterback over Russell Wilson. Sean Payton moved on from some other good players this offseason, too. I have a hard time seeing the Broncos being competitive this year.
LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Washington Commanders as the No. 2 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
27. Washington Commanders Previous: 31 (+4)
I doubt Washington will be competitive this season, but it should be improved. The Commanders made an upgrade at both head coach and quarterback. New owner Josh Harris has brought excitement to this team.
Las Vegas Raiders coach Antionio Pierce (left) talks with defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) n the first half against the Minnesota Vikings at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
28. Las Vegas Raiders Previous: 21 (-7)
This could be a long season for Las Vegas. I don’t know if Antonio Pierce was the right coaching hire, even though the Raiders played well for him last year. They also have one of the worst quarterback situations in the AFC.
New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll signals against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
29. New York Giants Previous: 22 (-7)
The Giants should improve in the win column with a healthy Daniel Jones. I still don’t think they have the same success they had in 2022, though. Brian Daboll might be in over his head. The Giants also lost some good players this offseason.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) drops back to pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
30. Tennessee Titans Previous: 26 (-4)
It wasn’t the best offseason for Tennessee. The Titans moved on from some good players, even parting ways with Mike Vrabel. There aren’t many teams worse than the Titans right now. It’ll likely be a long season for them.
New England Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
31. New England Patriots Previous: 30 (-1)
I’ll be surprised if New England doesn’t finish last in the AFC East. The Patriots just don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to be competitive. Not having Bill Belichick as head coach will hurt this team quite a bit.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) attempts a pass against the Miami Dophins during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
32. Carolina Panthers Previous: 32
I’ll give Carolina credit. The Panthers did a good job improving the situation around Bryce Young. Carolina added some quality players through free agency and the draft. I need to see this team get out of the cellar, though.
— Ron Burgundy, “Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy” (2004)
Members of the NFL are setting up the main theater area on Tuesday, April 23, 2024 for the NFL DRAFT that will be held in Detroit later this week. Mandatory credit: USA TODAY
It feels like the 2024 NFL Draft ended just as quickly as it came. I did pretty well in my own mock draft. I finished with eight correct picks in the first round, which was a new personal best, and the same result as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and a better result than ESPN’s Matt Miller. I even posted a new personal best when it comes to correctly predicting the position teams would draft (17) and tied my record for the correct number of players selected in the first round (28). I was on a heater, to say the least. It’s even more impressive when you consider that I’m not as plugged in as those guys.
My biggest takeaway from this draft is just how offensively driven the game is becoming. That’s nothing I didn’t already know, but it feels like this was the first time to see it come to fruition through the draft. The first 14 picks of the first round were used on offensive players, including six quarterbacks in the top 12. There were also 23 offensive players taken in the first round, which is a new record. I think that speaks volumes to how the game is being played at the collegiate level.
I’m intrigued to see how the players in this draft class pan out in the NFL, maybe even more so than usual. This draft class was historically great on the offensive side of the ball, particularly at quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line. I want to see if these players live up to the hype at the next level. I also want to see if the defensive players can exceed expectations, because this class wasn’t highly regarded on that side of the ball.
This is the eighth year in a row that I’ve given draft grades for every team. I think I’m finally figuring out to evaluate the way these teams construct their rosters. It’s still pretty subjective, though.
Draft grades:
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Arizona Cardinals as the No. 4 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona Cardinals Selections: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Round: 1 Pick: 4), DL Darius Robinson (Round: 1 Pick: 27), CB Max Melton (Round: 2 Pick: 43), RB Trey Benson (Round: 3 Pick: 66), IOL Isaiah Adams (Round: 3 Pick: 71), TE Tip Reiman (Round: 3 Pick: 82), CB Elijah Jones (Round: 3 Pick: 90), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Round: 4 Pick: 104), Edge Xavier Thomas (Round: 5 Pick: 138), T Christian Jones (Round: 5 Pick: 162), WR Tejhaun Palmer (Round: 6 Pick: 194), CB Jaden Davis (Round: 7 Pick: 226)
Despite having 12 picks, I’m a little underwhelmed with Arizona’s draft. I wasn’t crazy about Robinson as a prospect, so drafting him in the first round felt like a reach. I also didn’t think the value was there for Adams and Reiman in the third round. The Cardinals still managed to get good players in the second round and on Day 3, along with arguably the best player of the draft in Harrison.
Grade: B+
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) passes against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Falcons Selections: QB Michael Penix Jr. (Round: 1 Pick: 8), DL Ruke Orhorhoro (Round: 1 Pick: 35), Edge Bralen Trice (Round: 3 Pick: 74), DL Brandon Dorlus (Round: 4 Pick: 109), LB JD Bertrand (Round: 5 Pick: 143), RB Jase McClellan (Round: 6 Pick: 186), WR Casey Washington (Round: 6 Pick: 187), DL Zion Logue (Round: 6 Pick: 197)
I actually don’t hate Atlanta’s decision to draft Penix. Having a succession plan at quarterback is never a bad thing. However, I’m not crazy about an almost 24-year-old sitting the bench for the next few years. The Falcons did a great job bolstering their defensive front in selecting Orhorhoro, Trice, and Dorlus. Atlanta really could’ve used some help at cornerback, though.
Grade: C+
Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) returns an interception for a touchdown during the first quarter against Florida Atlantic at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY NETWORK
Baltimore Ravens Selections: CB Nate Wiggins (Round: 1 Pick: 30), T Roger Rosengarten (Round: 2 Pick: 62), Edge Adisa Isaac (Round: 3 Pick: 93), WR Devontez Walker (Round: 4 Pick: 113), CB T.J. Tampa (Round: 4 Pick: 130), RB Rasheen Ali (Round: 5 Pick: 165), QB Devin Leary (Round: 6 Pick: 218), IOL Nick Samac (Round: 7 Pick: 228), S Sanoussi Kane (Round: 7 Pick: 250)
Baltimore went in a different direction than what I thought it’d go in the draft. The Ravens have needed depth at cornerback and offensive tackle for years, and they used three of their first five picks on those positions. Wiggins might turn into the best cornerback in this draft class. Baltimore also got great value by selecting Isaac, Walker, and Tampa in the third and fourth rounds.
Grade: A-
Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) avoids a tackle by Syracuse Orange linebacker Kadin Bailey (45) during the first quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
For the most part, I have zero issue with Buffalo’s decision to trade back so many times. The Bills needed to round out their roster. They’re getting good players in Coleman, Bishop, Carter, and Davis. Van Pran-Granger might compete for the starting center spot, too. My issue with Buffalo is its decision to trade with Kansas City in the first round, which knocks this grade down a bit.
Grade: B
South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Xavier Legette (17) makes a reception against Vanderbilt Commodores cornerback Trudell Berry (30) in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
Despite not having many picks, I thought Carolina came away with some good players. Legette gives the Panthers a No. 1 receiver on the perimeter. Brooks will immediately be in the running back rotation. Sanders gives Carolina a presence in the middle of the field. I’m still surprised that the Panthers didn’t draft an edge rusher to replace Brian Burns. That dings their grade a bit.
Grade: C+
Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Chicago Bears as the No. 1 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago Bears Selections: QB Caleb Williams (Round: 1 Pick: 1), WR Rome Odunze (Round: 1 Pick: 9), T Kiran Amegadjie (Round: 3 Pick: 75), P Tory Taylor (Round: 4 Pick: 122), Edge Austin Booker (Round: 5 Pick: 144)
It’s hard to not do well in the draft when you have two picks in the top 10. Williams has a chance to be the best quarterback Chicago has ever had. I think Odunze could be the best wide receiver in this draft class. Amegadjie and Booker were solid picks after the first round. I loathe drafting specialists before the sixth round, though. I have to knock the Bears for that.
Grade: B+
Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Bengals Selections: T Amarius Mims (Round: 1 Pick: 18), DL Kris Jenkins (Round: 2 Pick: 49), WR Jermaine Burton (Round: 3 Pick: 80), DL McKinnley Jackson (Round: 3 Pick: 97), TE Erick All (Round: 4 Pick: 115), CB Josh Newton (Round: 5 Pick: 149), TE Tanner McLachlan (Round: 6 Pick: 194), Edge Cedric Johnson (Round: 6 Pick: 214), S Daijahn Anthony (Round: 7 Pick: 224), IOL Matt Lee (Round: 7 Pick: 237)
I thought Cincinnati did a great job of hitting on its needs. Mims is a project at offensive tackle, but the Bengals are a good spot for him because he won’t be asked to start right away. I love Cincinnati’s decision to beef up the interior of its defensive front by drafting Jenkins and Jackson. Burton gives them a needed No. 3 receiver. All and Newton are worth taking a chance on, too.
Grade: B+
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. (51) attempts to sack Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Brendan Sorsby (15) before a pass during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
I don’t know what to make of Cleveland’s draft. The Browns didn’t have many picks, which I try not to hold against a team when giving grades. I like the Hall and Thrash selections, but this draft still leaves a lot to be desired. It’s unclear if Zinter will play this season after breaking his tibia and fibula back in November, so using a third-round pick on him was unnecessary.
Grade: C+
Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Tyler Guyton (60) at the line of scrimmage against the Kansas Jayhawks during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Drafting a project like Guyton tells me that Dallas plans to move Tyler Smith to left tackle, and Beebe will take Smith’s spot at guard. That’s a smart move by the Cowboys. Kneeland will provide immediate depth along the defensive front. Carson might be a gem in the fifth round. I also think people are overreacting to Dallas not picking a running back. I think the Cowboys had a pretty good draft.
Grade: B-
Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to throw during the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Denver addressed its biggest needs with its first four picks, but I don’t like the players it drafted. Nix, Elliss, Franklin, and Abrams-Draine are all undersized players with low ceilings. I just don’t think their physical limitations mesh well in a cold weather city like Denver. My favorite pick by the Broncos was probably Estimé, who came in the fifth round. I’m not crazy about this draft.
Grade: C
Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold poses after being selected by the Detroit Lions as the No. 24 pick of the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Detroit Lions Selections: CB Terrion Arnold (Round: 1 Pick: 24), CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Round: 2 Pick: 61), T Giovanni Manu (Round: 4 Pick: 126), S/RB Sione Vaki (Round: 4 Pick: 132), DL Mekhi Wingo (Round: 6 Pick: 189), IOL Christian Mahogany (Round: 6 Pick: 210)
Detroit doubled down at cornerback, which was its biggest need. The Lions moved up to get arguably the best cornerback in this draft class in Arnold, and even Rakestraw is a good player despite not testing well. Detroit also found maulers of offensive linemen in Manu and Mahogany. Wingo was a steal in the sixth round. I thought this was another terrific draft by Brad Holmes.
Grade: A-
Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Green Bay Packers Selections: T Jordan Morgan (Round: 1 Pick: 25), LB Edgerrin Cooper (Round: 2 Pick: 45), S Javon Bullard (Round: 2 Pick: 58), RB MarShawn Lloyd (Round: 3 Pick: 88), LB Ty’Ron Hopper (Round: 3 Pick: 91), S Evan Williams (Round: 4 Pick: 111), IOL Jacob Monk (Round: 5 Pick: 163), S Kitan Oladapo (Round: 5 Pick: 169), T Travis Glover (Round: 6 Pick: 202), QB Michael Pratt (Round: 7 Pick: 245), CB Kalen King (Round: 7 Pick: 255)
Brian Gutekunst did an excellent job bolstering the middle of Green Bay’s defense, which was the team’s biggest weakness. The Packers got two immediate starters in the second round in Cooper and Bullard. First-round pick Morgan should provide depth at offensive tackle. I didn’t think Green Bay got great value with some of its Day 3 picks. That’s why this grade isn’t higher.
Grade: B
Vanderbilt Commodores wide receiver Quincy Skinner Jr. (3) catches a pass as he is defended by Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Kamari Lassiter (3) during the first half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
For a young team that could’ve used a great draft, I didn’t think Houston did that well. In hindsight, I think the Texans should’ve kept their first-round pick. I think Lassiter is more of a nickel than a boundary cornerback at the next level. Bullock is an undersized safety that can’t tackle. I like the Fisher pick, but he’s a project. I don’t know how much Houston improved after this draft.
Grade: C
UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Indianapolis Colts as the No. 15 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Indianapolis Colts Selections: Edge Laiatu Latu (Round: 1 Pick: 15), WR Adonai Mitchell (Round: 2 Pick: 52), T Matt Goncalves (Round: 3 Pick: 79), IOL Tanor Bortolini (Round: 4 Pick: 117), WR Anthony Gould (Round: 5 Pick: 142), LB Jaylon Carlies (Round: 5 Pick: 151), S Jaylin Simpson (Round: 5 Pick: 164), CB Micah Abraham (Round: 6 Pick: 201), DL Jonah Laulu (Round: 7 Pick: 234)
Chris Ballard put together another solid draft for Indianapolis. The Colts have needed to bolster their pass rush for years and it got Latu, who might be the best edge rusher in this draft class. Mitchell was a steal in the second round. The Colts added depth to their offensive line by picking Goncalves and Bortolini. My issue is that Indianapolis waited until the sixth round to draft a cornerback.
Grade: B+
LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. poses after being selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars as the No. 23 pick during the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars Selections: WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Round: 1 Pick: 23), DL Maason Smith (Round: 2 Pick: 48), CB Jarrian Jones (Round: 3 Pick: 96), T Javon Foster (Round: 4 Pick: 114), DL Jordan Jefferson (Round: 4 Pick: 116), CB Deantre Prince (Round: 5 Pick: 153), RB Keilan Robinson (Round: 5 Pick: 167), K Cam Little (Round: 6 Pick: 212), Edge Myles Cole (Round: 7 Pick: 236)
Jacksonville got off to a good start by trading back and still getting a great player in Thomas. However, I don’t think the value was there for Smith in the second round. Jones is likely a nickel in the NFL and not a boundary cornerback, which is what the Jaguars needed. I don’t know if Foster or Jefferson will be difference makers. This draft feels like a mixed bag for Jacksonville.
Grade: C+
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) carries the ball in the first half of the Longhorns’ game against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sara Diggins-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City Chiefs Selections: WR Xavier Worthy (Round: 1 Pick: 28), T Kingsley Suamataia (Round: 2 Pick: 63), TE Jared Wiley (Round: 4 Pick: 131), S Jaden Hicks (Round: 4 Pick: 133), IOL Hunter Nourzad (Round: 5 Pick: 159), QB Kamal Hadden (Round: 6 Pick: 211), IOL C.J. Hanson (Round: 7 Pick: 248)
I’m actually don’t love Kansas City’s decision to trade up to get Worthy. He should fit in well with the Chiefs’ offense, but I worry about his frame (165 pounds) in cold weather. I thought Kansas City’s next three picks were outstanding, though. Suamataia has a ton of upside at offensive tackle. Wiley could develop into a solid tight end. Hicks was also a steal in the fourth round.
Grade: B+
Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) carries a touchdown reception against the Auburn Tigers during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Las Vegas Raiders Selections: TE Brock Bowers (Round: 1 Pick: 13), IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson (Round: 2 Pick: 44), T Delmar Glaze (Round: 3 Pick: 77), CB Decamerion Richardson (Round: 4 Pick: 112), LB Tommy Eichenberg (Round: 5 Pick: 148), RB Dylan Laube (Round: 6 Pick: 208), S Trey Taylor (Round: 7 Pick: 223), CB M.J. Devonshire (Round: 7 Pick: 229)
Tight end wasn’t a need, but I’ll never fault a team for drafting the best player available. Bowers will make an impact with the Raiders. Powers-Johnson can start right away in the interior of their offensive line. Richardson, Eichenberg, and Devonshire are Day 3 picks that fill needs. I’m surprised that Las Vegas didn’t draft a quarterback. That puts a lot of pressure on Gardner Minshew.
Grade: B-
Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Joe Alt (76) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Jordan Fox (10) during the fourth quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Chargers Selections: T Joe Alt (Round: 1 Pick: 5), WR Ladd McConkey (Round: 2 Pick: 34), LB Junior Colson (Round: 3 Pick: 69), DL Justin Eboigbe (Round: 4 Pick: 105), CB Tarheeb Still (Round: 5 Pick: 137), CB Cam Hart (Round: 5 Pick: 140), RB Kimani Vidal (Round: 6 Pick: 181), WR Brenden Rice (Round: 7 Pick: 225), WR Cornelius Johnson (Round: 7 Pick: 253)
I really like what the Chargers did over the weekend. After getting Alt, they probably have the best offensive tackle duo in the league. McConkey will be a favorite target for Justin Herbert, with his separation ability. Colson, Eboigbe, Still, Hart, and Vidal fill roster needs that have been neglected for years. Getting Rice and Johnson in the seventh round were steals, too.
Grade: A
Florida State Seminoles defensive end Jared Verse (5) against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Rams Selections: Edge Jared Verse (Round: 1 Pick: 19), DL Braden Fiske (Round: 2 Pick: 39), RB Blake Corum (Round: 3 Pick: 83), S Kamren Kinchens (Round: 3 Pick: 99), Edge Brennan Jackson (Round: 5 Pick: 154), DL Tyler Davis (Round: 6 Pick: 196), K Joshua Karty (Round: 6 Pick: 209), WR Jordan Whittington (Round: 6 Pick: 213), IOL Beaux Limmer (Round: 6 Pick: 217), T KT Leveston (Round: 7 Pick: 254)
I thought the Rams crushed it in the draft. After losing Aaron Donald this offseason, they focused on improving their defensive front by taking Verse, Fiske, Jackson, and Davis. Corum will be a great pair with Kyren Williams in the backfield. Kinchens didn’t test well, but he’s worth taking a chance on in the third round. The Rams also got terrific value for Limmer in the sixth round.
Grade: A
Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) celebrates after sacking Massachusetts quarterback Taisun Phommachanh in the first half of a NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in State College, Pa. Mandatory credit: Hanover Evening Sun
Miami Dolphins Selections: Edge Chop Robinson (Round: 1 Pick: 21), T Patrick Paul (Round: 2 Pick: 55), RB Jaylen Wright (Round: 4 Pick: 120), Edge Mohamed Kamara (Round: 5 Pick: 158), WR Malik Washington (Round: 6 Pick: 184), S Patrick McMorris (Round: 6 Pick: 198), WR Tahj Washington (Round: 7 Pick: 241)
Miami did well despite not having many picks. The Dolphins added some depth to their pass rush by getting Robinson. Paul will provide depth at left tackle behind Terron Armstead, who’s struggled to stay healthy. Raheem Mostert could be a free agent next year, so drafting Wright in the fourth round makes sense. Miami even got some depth at wide receiver on Day 3.
Grade: B+
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws against the Bowling Green Falcons in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota Vikings Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy (Round: 1 Pick: 10), Edge Dallas Turner (Round: 1 Pick: 17), CB Khyree Jackson (Round: 4 Pick: 108), T Walter Rouse (Round: 6 Pick: 177), K Will Reichard (Round: 6 Pick: 203), IOL Michael Jurgens (Round: 7 Pick: 230), DL Levi Drake Rodriguez (Round: 7 Pick: 232)
Minnesota traded nine total draft picks (three of them in the second and third rounds this year and next year) to get McCarthy and Turner. That’s a lot of draft capital for a project at quarterback and an edge rusher with a low ceiling. This team that already didn’t have much depth and now it won’t have enough picks to change that. I like the Jackson pick in the fourth round, though.
Grade: C+
North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the New England Patriots as the No. 3 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots Selections: QB Drake Maye (Round: 1 Pick: 3), WR Ja’Lynn Polk (Round: 2 Pick: 37), T Caedan Wallace (Round: 3 Pick: 68), IOL Layden Robinson (Round: 4 Pick: 103), WR Javon Baker (Round: 4 Pick: 110), CB Marcellas Dial (Round: 6 Pick: 180), QB Joe Milton (Round: 6 Pick: 193), TE Jaheim Bell (Round: 7 Pick: 231)
New England emphasized the offensive side of the ball, which was needed. I don’t think Maye is ready to start right now, but he has a high ceiling and has the traits to be a franchise quarterback. Polk and Baker should make an immediate impact as pass catchers. I think Wallace is an underrated prospect. There was a lot of pressure on New England and I think it did pretty well.
Grade: B+
Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans had a glaring need at offensive tackle and it drafted Fuaga, who might kick inside to guard. The Saints probably should’ve drafted another tackle before the seventh round. There’s a lot riding on Fuaga to acclimate quickly. I like the rest of New Orleans’ draft, though. McKinstry will provide depth at cornerback and Rattler is worth the risk in the fifth round.
Grade: B
LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the New York Giants as the No. 6 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
New York Giants Selections: WR Malik Nabers (Round: 1 Pick: 6), S Tyler Nubin (Round: 2 Pick: 47), CB Andru Phillips (Round: 3 Pick: 70), TE Theo Johnson (Round: 4 Pick: 107), RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (Round: 5 Pick: 166), LB Darius Muasau (Round: 6 Pick: 183)
The Giants focused on patching up their roster after losing quality players this offseason. Nubin, Johnson, and Tracy will serve as replacements for Xavier McKinney, Darren Waller, and Saquon Barkley. Drafting Nabers finally gives the Giants a dynamic pass catcher. I even like the Phillips pick in the third round. My only issue with this draft is that the Giants neglected the offensive line.
Grade: B+
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end JT Tuimoloau (44) goes up against Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) during the third quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory credit: The Columbus Dispatch
New York Jets Selections: T Olu Fashanu (Round: 1 Pick: 11), WR Malachi Corley (Round: 3 Pick: 65), RB Braelon Allen (Round: 4 Pick: 134), QB Jordan Travis (Round: 5 Pick: 173), RB Isaiah Davis (Round: 5 Pick: 173), CB Qwan’tez Stiggers (Round: 5 Pick: 176), S Jaylen Key (Round: 7 Pick: 257)
Joe Douglas hit on the Jets’ biggest needs early in the draft. Fashanu will be a long-term answer at left or right tackle, and can learn from Tyron Smith. Corley is a versatile wide receiver. I was surprised that the Jets drafted two running backs, considering Breece Hall still has two years on his rookie contract. I also think they could’ve used more help along the offensive line.
Grade: B-
Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell poses after being selected by the Philadelphia Eagles as the No. 22 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia Eagles Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell (Round: 1 Pick: 22), CB Cooper DeJean (Round: 2 Pick: 40), Edge Jalyx Hunt (Round: 3 Pick: 94), RB Will Shipley (Round: 4 Pick: 127), WR Ainias Smith (Round: 5 Pick: 152), LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Round: 5 Pick: 155), IOL Trevor Keegan (Round: 5 Pick: 172), WR Johnny Wilson (Round: 6 Pick: 185), IOL Dylan McMahon (Round: 6 Pick: 190)
Howie Roseman did Howie Roseman things once again in the draft. Philadelphia needed to improve its secondary and it did that by selecting Mitchell and DeJean, who were two of the top cornerbacks in this draft class. Hunt could turn into an adequate replacement for Haason Reddick. Getting Smith, Trotter, and Keegan in the fifth round was great value, too.
Grade: A
Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Pittsburgh Steelers Selections: T Troy Fautanu (Round: 1 Pick: 20), IOL Zach Frazier (Round: 2 Pick: 51), WR Roman Wilson (Round: 3 Pick: 84), LB Payton Wilson (Round: 3 Pick: 98), IOL Mason McCormick (Round: 4 Pick: 119), DL Logan Lee (Round: 6 Pick: 178), CB Ryan Watts (Round: 6 Pick: 195)
I thought Pittsburgh nailed the draft despite not having that many picks. The Steelers needed to improve their offensive line and they drafted three prospects that might start right away in Fautanu, Frazier, and McCormick. Roman Wilson and Payton Wilson filled needs on Pittsburgh’s roster and were great value in the third round. This is back-to-back great drafts by Omar Khan.
Grade: A
Florida Gators wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (1) runs with the ball away from Florida Gators cornerback Aaron Gates (13) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers Selections: WR Ricky Pearsall (Round: 1 Pick: 31), CB Renardo Green (Round: 2 Pick: 64), IOL Dominick Puni (Round: 3 Pick: 86), S Malik Mustapha (Round: 4 Pick: 124), RB Isaac Guerendo (Round: 4 Pick: 129), WR Jacob Cowing (Round: 4 Pick: 135), IOL Jarrett Kingston (Round: 6 Pick: 215), LB Tatum Bethune (Round: 7 Pick: 251)
With the uncertainty surrounding Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, it makes sense for San Francisco to draft Pearsall and Cowing. The 49ers needed a cornerback opposite of Charvarius Ward and Green can fill that role. Mustapha might be a hidden gem. Guerendo will be a great pair with Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco did much better in the draft this year than it did last year.
Grade: B
Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates after a sack against TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ricardo B. Brazziell-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Seahawks Selections: DL Byron Murphy II (Round: 1 Pick: 16), IOL Christian Haynes (Round: 3 Pick: 81), LB Tyrice Knight (Round: 4 Pick: 118), TE AJ Barner (Round: 4 Pick: 121), CB Nehemiah Pritchett (Round: 5 Pick: 136), IOL Sataoa Laumea (Round: 6 Pick: 179), CB D.J. James (Round: 6 Pick: 192), T Michael Jerrell (Round: 6 Pick: 207)
Seattle addressed two of its biggest needs with its first two picks. Murphy will be a difference maker in the interior of the defensive line and Haynes will start right away at guard. Barner will be a good blocking tight end, too. However, I’m not crazy about the rest of the Seahawks’ draft. I don’t think the value was there for Knight. I also don’t like that Seattle neglected an edge rusher.
Grade: B
Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton gets lined up before a play. Mandatory credit: Duke Athletics
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Selections: IOL Graham Barton (Round: 1 Pick: 26), Edge Chris Braswell (Round: 2 Pick: 57), S Tykee Smith (Round: 3 Pick: 89), WR Jalen McMillan (Round: 3 Pick: 92), RB Bucky Irving (Round: 4 Pick: 125), IOL Elijah Klein (Round: 6 Pick: 220), TE Devin Culp (Round: 7 Pick: 246)
Teams typically don’t draft centers in the first round, but it makes sense for Tampa Bay after losing Ryan Jensen this offseason. Braswell will make provide depth at edge rusher, which was needed. Smith, McMillan, and Irving are good players that fill both immediate and future roster needs. I think Jason Licht did a good job, but I’m surprised that he neglected the cornerback position.
Grade: B+
Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman JC Latham poses after being selected by the Tennessee Titans as the No. 7 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Despite having a top 10 pick, I don’t like what Tennessee did this past weekend. Latham felt like a reach in the top 10, and he’s likely going to be a guard or right tackle in the NFL. There were a ton of red flags surrounding Sweat throughout the draft process and the value wasn’t there to pick him early in the second round. I think the Titans are the biggest loser of the draft.
Grade: C-
LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Washington Commanders as the No. 2 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Commanders Selections: QB Jayden Daniels (Round: 1 Pick: 2), DL Jer’Zhan Newton (Round: 2 Pick: 36), CB Mike Sainristil (Round: 2 Pick: 50), TE Ben Sinnott (Round: 2 Pick: 53), IOL Brandon Coleman (Round: 3 Pick: 67), WR Luke McCaffrey (Round: 3 Pick: 100), LB Jordan Magee (Round: 5 Pick: 139), S Dominique Hampton (Round: 5 Pick: 161), Edge Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Round: 7 Pick: 222)
I thought this was a fine draft by Washington, but I didn’t think it was great. Daniels was my least favorite quarterback in this draft class. Sinnott is probably more of an H-back than a tight end, and the value wasn’t great for him. I really like the Newton and Sainristil selections, though. I’m also surprised that the Commanders didn’t use more draft capital to get better in the trenches.
— Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003)
The NFL equivalent to Christmas Day is upon us. I couldn’t be more excited about it. For the first time in years, I’m not stressed about what Green Bay plans to do in the draft. With the Packers being so young, they could go in a variety of different directions and whoever they pick will likely make an impact.
This is easily the best draft class that we’ve seen in the last three or four years. It’s loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball, specifically at quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive line. That’s not to say that there aren’t good defensive players in this draft class. I think that side of the ball is deep at cornerback and interior defensive line. If your team is looking for a good linebacker, safety, edge rusher, tight end, or running back, it’ll have to draft one early because there’s not much depth at those positions.
There’s still so much uncertainty with what’s going to happen in the first round when it comes to the quarterback position. I feel strongly about which quarterback Chicago will draft with the No. 1 overall pick, but I don’t know about the rest. Does Minnesota or the Giants move up for a quarterback, or another team that we’re not anticipating? There will be no shortage of entertainment on that front. I’m pretty confident that this draft will break the record for most offensive players taken in the first round, which is currently 19.
I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t change this mock draft at least twice this week. My mock draft last year was the best I’ve ever filled out, with seven correct picks. There’s a lot of pressure for me to replicate that success. Remember, this is what I think the teams will do not what I’d do. I also don’t incorporate trades in my mock drafts.
First round:
Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Utah Utes in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) — QB Caleb Williams, USC
All signs are pointing to Chicago using this pick on Williams. He’s currently a heavy favorite (-20000) to be the No. 1 overall pick. There’s lot to like about Williams. He’s the best quarterback prospect to come through the draft since Trevor Lawrence, and has the highest ceiling of the prospects at the position in this draft class. Williams can also start right away for the Bears.
LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) looks to pass the ball during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
2. Washington Commanders (4-13) — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
It’s clear that Washington is picking a quarterback with this pick. I’m just not convinced which one. I’m giving the nod to Daniels because the odds have continued to shift in his favor the closer we get to the draft. I don’t think Daniels has a particularly high ceiling, but he’s a dynamic playmaker. That’s something that Washington hasn’t had at the position since the Robert Griffin III era.
North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first half at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
3. New England Patriots (4-13) — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
It seems like New England wants to trade out of this pick. I’m not convinced that it’ll be able to do that, though. If the Patriots stay, I think they have to take a quarterback. New England can’t go into the season with just Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe. Drafting Maye makes too much sense. I think he might have the second-highest ceiling of the quarterback prospects in this draft class.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) scores a touchdown against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the fourth quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Arizona will likely listen to trade offers, but I doubt it’ll get out of this pick. The Cardinals moved on from Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore this offseason, which tells me that they’re honing in on Harrison. He’s considered to be the best wide receiver prospect to come through the draft since Ja’Marr Chase. I think Harrison would make an immediate impact as a rookie.
Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman J.C. Latham (65) blocks against the Miami Hurricanes at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — T JC Latham, Alabama
I realize that the Chargers need pass catchers, but I think drafting one this early goes against Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz’s DNA. If the Chargers keep this pick, I fully expect them to draft an offensive lineman. However, I think it’ll be Latham. He’s a better fit for right tackle, which is what the Chargers need. Latham’s play style is also perfect for what Harbaugh likes to do offensively.
LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) hauls in a 46 yard pass for a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
6. New York Giants (6-11) — WR Malik Nabers, LSU
I wouldn’t rule out the Giants trading up for a quarterback. That buzz has only picked up recently, but I need to see it happen. The Giants could use a No. 1 pass catcher, which they haven’t had since trading away Odell Beckham Jr. in 2019. Nabers hasn’t turned 21 yet, so it might take him time to develop. However, Nabers has a high ceiling and could be a great weapon for the Giants.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Joe Alt (76) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Jordan Fox (10) during the fourth quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
7. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — T Joe Alt, Notre Dame
If this is the way the board falls, I don’t think Tennessee will waste any time getting this pick into commissioner Roger Goodell. The Titans have regressed along the offensive line in recent years and could really use a left tackle. Alt is considered the best offensive lineman in this draft class and can start right away at left tackle. I think this is a no-brainer decision for Tennessee.
Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) celebrates after a sack against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
Atlanta has ranked in the bottom half of the league in sacks and/or pressure rate for the last few years. It seems like the Falcons are finally going to use a first-round pick to bolster their pass rush, which they haven’t done since 2017. It’s unclear which pass rusher Atlanta will target with this pick, but I think it’ll be Turner. He’s a better fit for Raheem Morris’ defensive scheme.
Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates after a sack against TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ricardo B. Brazziell-USA TODAY Sports
9. Chicago Bears (7-10) — DL Byron Murphy II, Texas
I actually think Chicago could go Murphy even if one of the top three pass catchers is still on the board. The Bears need more difference makers along their defensive front besides Montez Sweat, specifically in the interior. Murphy is a little undersized (6’0″, 297 pounds), but he’s twitchy and could be a problem as a pass rusher. Murphy could also contribute immediately in Chicago.
Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) signals for a first down after catching a pass against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
10. New York Jets (7-10) — WR Rome Odunze, Washington
If you believe the article by The Athletic that Aaron Rodgers is the De facto general manager of the Jets, I think you can expect this pick to be used on a pass catcher. I have a difficult time believing the Jets will pass on Odunze. They don’t have many quality perimeter wide receivers besides Mike Williams, who can’t stay healthy. Having Odunze will open up the Jets’ passing attack.
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws against the Bowling Green Falcons in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
It’s clear that Minnesota is targeting a quarterback early in the draft. After acquiring Houston’s first-round pick, I expect the Vikings to use that extra capital to trade up to get their next long-term starter. I think McCarthy will be their choice. He’s a project that will have to sit for one season (maybe even two), but the Vikings seem to like him a lot. I think this is a good spot for McCarthy.
Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to throw during the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
12. Denver Broncos (8-9) — QB Bo Nix, Oregon
The acquisition of Zach Wilson doesn’t change my opinion of Denver’s quarterback situation. The Broncos still don’t have a starter, and are basically in a position where they have to draft one with this pick. If not, Denver will have to wait until the third round, which I don’t see happening. Nix makes the most sense for the Broncos. He’d be a great fit in Sean Payton’s offense.
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) passes against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
There have been rumors the last few weeks that Las Vegas has been eyeballing a quarterback, allegedly even trying to trade up to No. 2 to pick one. If this is the way the board falls, I think the Raiders would take Penix. He has the physical traits to succeed at the next level. The odds have also steadily shifted in Penix’s favor recently for him to be drafted in the first round.
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end JT Tuimoloau (44) goes up against Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) during the third quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory credit: The Columbus Dispatch
14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — T Olu Fashanu, Penn State
New Orleans typically doesn’t look to the future when it comes to roster needs. I expect it to draft its most immediate need with this pick, which is offensive tackle. Andrus Peat remains a free agent, Ryan Ramczyk is dealing with a knee injury, and Trevor Penning has struggled since entering the NFL. Fashanu can play immediately and has a lot of experience playing left tackle.
Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) carries a touchdown reception against the Auburn Tigers during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
This isn’t an immediate need for Indianapolis, but it’s been linked to pass catchers all offseason. If Bowers falls this far, I doubt the Colts will pass on him. Bowers is a versatile player and is also an effective blocker. Having him will give Indianapolis a presence in the middle of the field that it probably hasn’t had since Coby Fleener. This will really help Anthony Richardson’s development.
Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
The interior of Seattle’s offensive line was already a need prior to Damien Lewis leaving during free agency. The Seahawks currently have four guards on their roster that had an average Pro Football Focus grade of just 51.1 last year, which is well below average. Drafting Fuaga makes too much sense for Seattle. He can easily slide inside to guard and contribute immediately.
Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (27) breaks up a pass intended for Miami (OH) Redhawks wide receiver Gage Larvadain (10) in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville bolstered its defensive front this offseason by extending Josh Allen and acquiring Arik Armstead. That makes me think that the Jaguars will target a cornerback with this pick. Jacksonville doesn’t really have a playmaker in its secondary besides Tyson Campbell. Mitchell might need some time to develop, but his physical traits typically translate well to the NFL.
Illinois Fighting Illini defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton (4) tackles Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
I’m to the point that I need to see Cincinnati draft an offensive lineman in the first round. After losing D.J. Reader this offseason, I think the Bengals might prioritize the interior defensive line with this pick. Newton is an underrated prospect. He can be a force against the run and pass. I’m not confident that Newton will be taken in the top 20, but Cincinnati could really use him.
Washington State Cougars running back Nakia Watson (25) is brought down by UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Carl Jones Jr. (4) and defensive lineman Laiatu Latu (15) during the second half at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
The Rams have to address their defensive front in the draft. They already didn’t have much of a pass rush and Aaron Donald retired this offseason. I’m not convinced that Latu falls this far, but I think the Rams will take him with this pick if he’s still on the board. Latu (6’5”, 265 pounds) is more of a prototypical edge rusher. He also would likely be a top 10 pick if he didn’t have medical concerns.
Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) — T Troy Fautanu, Washington
I think Pittsburgh has something in Broderick Jones, who was the organization’s first-round pick last year. The Steelers could still use more help along their offensive line, and it feels like that’s the position they’ll target with this pick. It’s unclear if Fautanu is a tackle or guard, but he’s versatile enough to play both positions. Either way, he’ll likely help Pittsburgh in some capacity.
Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
21. Miami Dolphins (11-6) — T Amarius Mims, Georgia
Miami’s offensive line already wasn’t great and it took a hit this offseason after losing Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams is still a free agent. Plus, Terron Armstead has struggled to stay healthy and even flirted with retirement. The Dolphins have to beef up their offensive line. Mims can play left or right tackle and he could learn behind Armstead. This is a good spot for Mims.
Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold (3) defends against a pass intended for Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Ainias Smith (0) during the fourth quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) — CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Philadelphia has to get younger at the cornerback position. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both well into their 30s. Plus, one of the reasons why the Eagles struggled so much defensively last year was because their secondary was porous. Arnold might have the best coverage skills of the cornerbacks in this draft class. GM Howie Roseman also likes to draft players from the SEC.
Florida State Seminoles defensive end Jared Verse (5) against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland via Houston) — Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
I genuinely have no idea what Minnesota will do if it keeps this pick, but it could afford to bolster its pass rush. Verse fills that need and he’s easily the best player still on the board. I think Verse is a very underrated prospect, and I’ll be surprised if he ends up falling this far. Having Verse, Jonathan Greenard, and Andrew Van Ginkel will give the Vikings plenty of depth coming off the edge.
Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton gets lined up before a play. Mandatory credit: Duke Athletics
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) — T Graham Barton, Duke
Dallas could go in several different directions with this pick. I keep going back to offensive line, which was already a need even before left tackle Tyron Smith signed with the Jets during free agency. The Cowboys need to add to the position. I think they could have their eyes on a player like Barton, who’s versatile enough to play tackle or guard. Dallas could really use him up front.
Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Cooper DeJean (3) returns a punt against the Western Michigan Broncos during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) — CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
I’m not sure there’s a player in this draft class that’s a better fit for Green Bay than DeJean. The Packers need help in the secondary and he’s versatile enough to play multiple positions. DeJean also checks Green Bay’s boxes when it comes to athleticism and physical traits, and he’s from the Midwest. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if GM Brian Gutekunst moves up to get DeJean.
Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) celebrates after sacking Massachusetts quarterback Taisun Phommachanh in the first half of a NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in State College, Pa. Mandatory credit: Hanover Evening Sun
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) — Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
I don’t know if Robinson will be who Tampa Bay selects with this pick. However, he tested so well that I’m pretty confident that he’ll be taken in the first round. I just don’t know where. Tampa Bay could use more pass rushers. The Buccaneers moved on from Shaquil Barrett this offseason, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t been the player they thought he’d be. This is a good landing spot for Robinson.
Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) returns an interception for a touchdown during the first quarter against Florida Atlantic at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY NETWORK
If the board falls this way, I expect Arizona to draft the best player available. I think that’s Wiggins right now. He also fills a need for the Cardinals, who need a playmaker at cornerback. I have reservations about Wiggins because of his weight (173 pounds). However, Wiggins has excellent coverage skills and I think it’s likely that a team takes a chance on him in the first round.
LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Army Black Knights defensive back Cameron Jones (10) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
28. Buffalo Bills (11-6) — WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
I’ll be surprised if Buffalo doesn’t use this pick on a wide receiver. The Bills don’t have many playmakers at the position after moving on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. Plus, Thomas is easily the best player still on the board. I doubt he’ll end up falling this far, but I’m not sure which team will draft him. Thomas would likely be the immediate No. 1 receiver in Buffalo’s offense.
Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry (1) celebrates after a missed field goal by LSU at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
29. Detroit Lions (12-5) — CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
Don’t be surprised if Detroit trades out of this pick. However, I don’t think the Lions will pass on a player like McKinstry. Detroit struggled to defend the pass last year. The Lions improved in that area after acquiring Carlton Davis, but there’s more work to be done. I don’t know if Detroit will consider McKinstry a fit, but he has incredible instincts and would pair well with Davis.
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches a ball for a touchdown against Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 9, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Mandatory Credit: Aaron E. Martinez-USA TODAY NETWORK
Baltimore is currently favored to pick an offensive lineman with its first pick, but I don’t know if it can pass on Mitchell. I feel strongly that he’ll be picked in the first round after the way he tested. The Ravens don’t have a perimeter wide receiver on their roster. With Mitchell on the outside, and Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers up the seam, Baltimore’s passing attack could open up.
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) carries the ball in the first half of the Longhorns’ game against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sara Diggins-USA TODAY Sports
31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
Since 2014, there have been five wide receivers, including Worthy, to run a sub-4.27 40-yard dash. Three of them were picked in the first round. Worthy broke the 40-yard dash record at the combine, so I feel strongly that he’ll be selected in the first round. I just don’t know where. If the rumors are true that San Francisco could trade Brandon Aiyuk, this becomes a possible spot for Worthy.
Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Tyler Guyton (60) at the line of scrimmage against the Kansas Jayhawks during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) — T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
The narrative being pushed is that Kansas City will target a wide receiver with this pick. I’ll believe it when I see it. The Chiefs must continue to keep Patrick Mahomes upright, and they have a glaring hole at left tackle that needs to be filled. Guyton is a bit of a project and will need some time to develop, but he’s worth the risk. Drafting him at this point is also pretty good value.
South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Xavier Legette (17) makes a reception against Vanderbilt Commodores cornerback Trudell Berry (30) in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
Second round:
Pick
Player
33. Carolina Panthers (2-15)
WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina
34. New England Patriots
WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
35. Arizona Cardinals
IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
36. Washington Commanders
T Jordan Morgan, Arizona
37. Los Angeles Chargers
WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
38. Tennessee Titans
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
39. Carolina Panthers (from New York Giants)
Edge Darius Robinson, Missouri
40. Washington Commanders (from Chicago)
Edge Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan
41. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets)
T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
42. Houston Texans (from Minnesota)
DL Braden Fiske, Florida State
43. Atlanta Falcons
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
44. Las Vegas Raiders
T Patrick Paul, Houston
45. New Orleans Saints (from Denver)
DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan
46. Indianapolis Colts
CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
47. New York Giants (from Seattle)
S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
48. Jacksonville Jaguars
WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
49. Cincinnati Bengals
T Roger Rosengarten, Washington
50. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)
WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
51. Pittsburgh Steelers
IOL Zach Frazier, West Virginia
52. Los Angeles Rams
QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
53. Philadelphia Eagles
T Kiran Amegadjie, Yale
54. Cleveland Browns (11-6)
DL Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State
55. Miami Dolphins
DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson
56. Dallas Cowboys
LB Payton Wilson, NC State
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CB TJ Tampa, Iowa State
58. Green Bay Packers
LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M
59. Houston Texans (10-7)
LB Junior Colson, Michigan
60. Buffalo Bills
CB Andru Phillips, Kentucky
61. Detroit Lions
Edge Adisa Isaac, Penn State
62. Baltimore Ravens
IOL Christian Haynes, UConn
63. San Francisco 49ers
IOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
64. Kansas City Chiefs
WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
Kansas State Wildcats tight end Ben Sinnott (34) runs with the ball against Missouri Tigers linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper (8) during the first half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Third round:
Pick
Player
65. Carolina Panthers
TE Ben Sinnott, Kansas State
66. Arizona Cardinals
DL T’Vondre Sweat, Texas
67. Washington Commanders
S Javon Bullard, Georgia
68. New England Patriots
T Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
69. Los Angeles Chargers
RB Blake Corum, Michigan
70. New York Giants
DL Brandon Dorlus, Oregon
71. Arizona Cardinals (from Tennessee)
IOL Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia
72. New York Jets
T Brandon Coleman, TCU
73. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota)
IOL Mason McCormick, South Dakota State
74. Atlanta Falcons
WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State
75. Chicago Bears
WR Jermaine Burton, Alabama
76. Denver Broncos
WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
77. Las Vegas Raiders
CB Max Melton, Rutgers
78. Washington Commanders (from Seattle)
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas
79. Atlanta Falcons (from Jacksonville)
DL Leonard Taylor III, Miami
80. Cincinnati Bengals
CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon
81. Seattle Seahawks (from New Orleans via Denver)
S Jaden Hicks, Washington State
82. Indianapolis Colts
WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
83. Los Angeles Rams
CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia
84. Pittsburgh Steelers
WR Javon Baker, UCF
85. Cleveland Browns
LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson
Miami Dolphins
Pick Forfeited
86. Houston Texans (from Philadelphia)
WR Jalen McMillan, Washington
87. Dallas Cowboys
RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas
88. Green Bay Packers
IOL Trevor Keegan, Michigan
89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
IOL Christian Mahogany, Boston College
90. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)
Edge Jonah Elliss, Utah
91. Green Bay Packers (from Buffalo)
S Cole Bishop, Utah
92. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Detroit)
RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
93. Baltimore Ravens
Edge Chris Braswell, Alabama
94. San Francisco 49ers
T Matt Goncalves, Pitt
95. Kansas City Chiefs
WR Malik Washington, Virginia
96. Jacksonville Jaguars (compensatory pick)
Edge Austin Booker, Kansas
97. Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory pick)
TE Cade Stover, Ohio State
98. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory pick; from Philadelphia)
CB Renardo Green, Florida State
99. Los Angeles Rams (Resolution JC-2A pick)
T Dominick Puni, Kansas
100. Washington Commanders (Resolution JC-2A pick; from San Francisco)
Arizona Coyotes center Nick Schmaltz (8) celebrates with right wing Clayton Keller (9) after scoring a goal against the Nashville Predators in the second period at Mullett Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Well, it’s now official. After nearly 30 years of being in the Phoenix area, the Arizona Coyotes have suspended operations and are moving to Salt Lake City. The NHL board of governors approved the sale of the team to current Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith recently. The history of the team will stay behind in Arizona as the organization continues to look for a new arena in an effort to draw a current team to the area. The new Utah team will share the Delta Center with the Jazz. It’ll also act as an expansion team for the NHL and have a new name, logo, color scheme, etc. That’s probably the right decision because I doubt it’ll want any affiliation with the Coyotes.
Arizona was the laughing stock of the NHL. Since the original Winnipeg Jets relocated to the Phoenix area and became the Coyotes in 1996, the team had 11 different ownership groups, only 10 postseason appearances (four since 2003), and played in three different arenas. Gila River Arena (now Diamond Desert Arena) went as far as to not renew its contract with the Coyotes after the 2021-22 season, alleging that the organization owed $1.3 million in taxes, including $250,000 to the City of Glendale.
The league even had to take over ownership of the team when previous majority owner Jerry Moyes filed for bankruptcy in 2009. The Phoenix area didn’t support the Coyotes, either. The organization consistently ranked near the bottom in attendance by a pretty considerable margin. That’s why I wouldn’t hold my breath about the organization finding a long-term home in the Phoenix area.
The decision to move the Coyotes was long overdue and I’m not surprised in the least that Salt Lake City was the choice. I even listed it as a possible destination for Arizona just last year. It’s a cold weather city known for its skiing and winter sports, even hosting the Winter Olympics back in 2002. Salt Lake City supports both the Jazz and Real Salt Lake, and is even being eyeballed by MLB as a possible market for an expansion team. Smith seems like a competent owner, too. There’s no reason to think the city won’t support a hockey team.
General aerial view of the downtown Houston skyline and the Toyota Center and Minute Maid Park before the AFC Wild Card playoff football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
My biggest takeaway from Arizona’s move is that Houston wasn’t the destination. It felt like that was the likely landing spot. Moving from the Phoenix area to Salt Lake City is a cost effective move, but moving to Houston wouldn’t have shook up the NHL landscape at all. Arizona was already competing in the Central Division of the Western Conference and moving to Houston wouldn’t have changed that. The Dallas Stars, which is the only team in the league located in Texas, compete in the same division.
Houston has more to offer the NHL, though. It’s the fourth-largest city in the country, with a population of 7.1 million people in the metropolitan area, and is the largest city to not have a team in each of the “Big Four” sports leagues (MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL). The people of Houston support its teams, too. The Astros, Rockets, and Texans always rank in the top half of their respected leagues when it comes to attendance. The Toyota Center, which is the city’s arena that hosts the Rockets, is capable of hosting NHL games, too.
I’m not just asking this question as someone who lives in the Houston area, nor as a hockey fan who’d like to watch my Boston Bruins play in-person sometime. I’m asking this just as a sports fan, how does the NHL not already have a footprint in Houston? Even if you were a sports fan that didn’t know anything about hockey, you probably would’ve already assumed Houston had a team just because it’s one of the largest markets in the country.
General view outside of Toyota Center before the game between the Houston Rockets and the San Antonio Spurs. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The NHL has expanded from 21 to 32 teams since 1991, and has now had nine different teams relocate since 1976. None of them to Houston. Two of those teams to relocate are now defunct, with the Coyotes likely to join them. It just doesn’t make sense why the league hasn’t given Houston more consideration. Texas is plenty big enough to house two teams. I refuse to believe that it’s because the NHL doesn’t think a team would work in Houston because of its large Latino population. Cities like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Miami — all of which have large Latino populations — have six hockey teams between them and still get plenty of support.
With NASA, the oil industry, beaches, and the Port of Houston in the surrounding area, there are millions of people that move to the city every year for work or for entertainment. Those people come from a variety of different areas with different backgrounds. There could be millions of people who could be hockey fans already living in Houston. The population of the Houston metropolitan area has also increased steadily in recent years.
The only thing that makes sense for why the NHL doesn’t already have a team in Houston is because the owner of the Rockets doesn’t want to share the Toyota Center with a hockey team. That’s understandable. Regardless, the league needs to do everything it can to get this right. Having a team in Houston would create more revenue and make the NHL more valuable. More importantly, I’d be able to watch quality hockey in-person without having to drive nearly five hours to Dallas.
“You gonna do somethin’ or just stand there and bleed?”
— Wyatt Earp, “Tombstone” (1993)
The road to the Stanley Cup begins this weekend. Sixteen teams competing for a chance to win one of the most coveted trophies in professional sports, behind arguably the NFL’s Lombardi Trophy. This is always one of the most competitive postseasons in all of sports, and it’s why it’s one of my favorite times of the sports calendar.
In previous years, there was an argument that every team that made the Stanley Cup Playoffs had a shot to win the whole thing. However, I’m not sure that’s the case this year. I think the bracket is a little more top heavy than we’re used to seeing, with maybe just four or five legitimate contenders. Some of those teams are looking to win either their first Stanley Cup ever, or first one in a long time.
The storylines may not seem quite as rich as what we had last year, when Colorado was trying to win back-to-back championships, Tampa Bay was trying to win three championships in four years, and Boston was trying to win it all to cap off a record-breaking regular season. There are still some good ones, though. With four Canadian-based teams in the playoffs, which is the most since 2017, can one of them win a Stanley Cup for the first time since 1993? Can the New York Rangers be the first team to break the Presidents’ Trophy curse since 2013? Can Boston find some redemption after last year’s disappointing exit in the first round?
These next few weeks ought to still give us plenty of entertainment.
First round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
New York Rangers left wing Artemi Panarin (10) skates against the Seattle Kraken during the first period at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
WC2. Washington (91 points; 40-31-11) vs. M1. New York Rangers (114 points; 55-23-4)
I just don’t see Washington winning this series. Excluding the COVID-19-impacted postseasons in 2020 and 2021, in the last 20 years, no team has had a worse goal differential and still made the playoffs than Washington (-37) this year. During that same stretch, only two teams with a negative goal differential made it past the first round. The Capitals will likely have a difficult time scoring on the Rangers, who allow just 2.76 goals per game.
Prediction: Rangers in five
Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns (8) and defenseman Jaccob Slavin (74) look on against the Washington Capitals during the first period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
M3. New York Islanders (94 points; 39-27-16) vs. M2. Carolina (111 points; 52-23-7)
Like Washington, the Islanders have one of the worst goal differentials (-17) among playoff teams in the last 20 years. However, I’d take the Islanders seriously in this series. They’ve played very well the last few weeks — winning 16 of their last 25 games with a goal differential of +11. This ought to be a competitive series, but I’ll still give the advantage to Carolina. The Panthers have a lot more talent, depth, and consistent goaltending.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart (13) reacts after scoring against the Montreal Canadiens during the second period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
WC1. Tampa Bay (98 points; 45-29-8) vs. A1. Florida (110 points; 52-24-6)
I think Tampa Bay is much closer to the end of its championship window rather than the middle. However, I wouldn’t rule out the Lightning in this series. They rank near the top of the league in goals scored (3.51 per game), and have plenty of postseason experience. My concern with Tampa Bay is its goaltending, which has allowed an average of 3.26 goals per game. That’s not a good omen entering the playoffs. I have to pick Florida to win this series.
Prediction: Panthers in six
Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand (63) skates with the puck during the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
A3. Toronto (102 points; 46-26-10) vs. A2. Boston (109 points; 47-20-15)
I think this is a terrible matchup for Toronto. Boston seems to have the Maple Leafs’ number in the postseason — winning three straight series in the first round since 2013. Toronto also hasn’t beaten the Bruins in the regular season since Nov. 2022. This isn’t the best Boston team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I have zero trust in the Maple Leafs. They’ve won just one playoff series since 2005. I expect the Bruins to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Bruins in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) skates against the Buffalo Sabres during the third period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Vegas might be getting Robin Lehner, Mark Stone, and William Carrier from the long-term injury reserve list. That could might not be as helpful as everyone thinks, though. Hockey is dependent on timing and chemistry and Lehner, Stone, and Carrier have been out of the loop for weeks. They might not help the Golden Knights as much as people think. Regardless, I still expect Dallas to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Prediction: Stars in six
Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) warms up before a game against the Calgary Flames at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
Winnipeg has one of the better goalies in hockey in Connor Hellebuyck, which is always beneficial once playoff hockey rolls around. I think Colorado will be a difficult matchup for the Jets, though. The Avalanche boast the league’s best offense — averaging 3.67 goals per game. They’ll likely find the back of the net against Hellebuyck. I don’t trust Winnipeg’s offense, which is one of the worst among playoff teams, to keep up over the course of a series.
Prediction: Avalanche in seven
Western Conference — Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson (40) handles the puck against the Florida Panthers in the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
WC1. Nashville (99 points; 47-30-5) vs. P1. Vancouver (109 points; 50-23-9)
I worry that Nashville relied too much on goalie Juuse Saros in the regular season. He appeared in the most games of any goalie (64), which might be a reason why he had his worst statistical season since he entered the NHL in 2015. If Saros can’t keep pucks out of the back of the net, this will be a short series. Vancouver has a lot of firepower — averaging 3.40 goals per game — and scoring depth. I don’t know how the Predators can pull off the upset.
Prediction: Canucks in five
Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) carries the puck around Detroit Red Wings defensemen Moritz Seider (53) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
P3. Los Angeles (99 points; 44-27-11) vs. P2. Edmonton (104 points; 49-27-6)
This will be a third-straight year that these teams met in the first round. The previous two meetings went at least six games, so this should be a competitive series. I don’t know if Edmonton can make a deep postseason run, but I expect it to advance to the next round. The Oilers will have the best two players on the ice in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Los Angeles just doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Edmonton.
Prediction: Oilers in seven
Second round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (31) defends the net in the second period against the Ottawa Senators at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
M2. Carolina vs. M1. New York Rangers
The winner of this series will likely represent the East in the Stanley Cup. Even though the Rangers have more star power, I’ll give the slight advantage to Carolina. The Hurricanes are loaded with depth on both ends of the ice. They have 12 different players to score at least 10 goals, and that’s not counting Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov, who were picked up at the trade deadline. The Rangers will have a difficult time defending Carolina’s offensive attack.
Prediction: Hurricanes in seven
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak (88) scores a goal on a slap shot during the third period against the St. Louis Blues at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
A2. Boston vs. A1. Florida
I’m having a difficult time seeing Boston winning this series. The Bruins haven’t played well since the start of February — losing 16 of their last 31 games, with a goal differential of -3. Florida is a younger team that has played better down the stretch, and has more depth. The Panthers also have a reliable goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s allowed just 2.37 goals per game. I doubt Boston can get consistent scoring from anyone besides David Pastrňák.
Prediction: Panthers in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) controls the puck in the second period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
C3. Colorado vs. C1. Dallas
I don’t know just how far Colorado can get this postseason relying mostly on Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and the rest of its offense. I think the Avalanche’s defense will eventually lead to their downfall. They rank in the bottom half of the NHL in goals allowed per game, shots allowed, and save percentage. Dallas should be able to take advantage of that. The Stars have a loaded offense, featuring eight different players to score at least 20 goals.
Prediction: Stars in six
Western Conference — Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks forward J.T. Miller (9) handles the puck against the St. Louis Blues in the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
P2. Edmonton vs. P1. Vancouver
Vancouver is the second-youngest team to make the postseason, and 12th-youngest in the league. The Canucks will likely be a problem for the foreseeable future, but I think their youth will prevent them from making a deep playoff run. While I have concerns about Edmonton’s depth, there are a lot of guys on its roster with postseason experience. We know that the Oilers have McDavid and Draisaitl, but I think they’re better than people think defensively.
Prediction: Oilers in six
Eastern Conference Final
Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) watches the play against the Boston Bruins during the third period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
A1. Florida vs. M2. Carolina
Despite having Sam Reinhart, who scored 57 goals in the regular season, I don’t know if Florida is reliable enough offensively to get back to the Stanley Cup. The Panthers rank No. 11 among playoff teams in goals scored per game. They’re a great defensive team to help combat that, but Carolina is a solid offensive team with several reliable goal scorers. I can’t bring myself to pick against the Hurricanes. I think they’re the most complete team in the East.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Western Conference Final
Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz (24) and left wing Jamie Benn (14) celebrates a power play goal scored by center Joe Pavelski (not pictured) against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
P2. Edmonton vs. C1. Dallas
This is a very bad matchup for Edmonton. The Oilers don’t have the same amount of depth as Dallas. I think the Stars will take advantage of Edmonton’s blue line and goaltending, which is far from elite. On the other side, Dallas is excellent defensively. The Stars’ blue line has allowed the seventh fewest shots in the league, and Jake Oettinger has been solid in the net. I think Dallas will be able to prevent McDavid and Draisaitl from taking over this series.
Prediction: Stars in six
2024 Stanley Cup Final
M2. Carolina vs. C1. Dallas
I picked these teams to make it to the Stanley Cup in the preseason and I’m not wavering on that opinion. I think these are the most balanced teams in the NHL. They have scoring depth and quality goaltending. In a series between teams that are pretty much equal, I have to lean on goaltending and special teams. Carolina holds the advantage in both areas. The Hurricanes rank in the top two in the league in both power play percentage and penalty kill percentage. Since Frederik Andersen’s return at the beginning of March, him and Pyotr Kochetkov have a combined GAA of 1.70 and save percentage of 93.3% in the net. I think Carolina is in great position to win its second Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six Conn Smythe winner: Sebastian Aho
The NBA regular season ended over the weekend while I was at my brother’s bachelor party in Cincinnati. I was actually worried that I wouldn’t have enough time to write up this post since I had to travel all day Sunday, but I managed to get it done. Some people might think that this post is coming a little early since the playoffs technically don’t start until Saturday, but my readers ought to know that I consider the NBA’s Play-In Tournament to be part of the league’s postseason. This will be the fifth installment of the Play-In Tournament, so I shouldn’t have to explain how it works at this point.
After a few years of having some semblance of balance, it feels like the league went right back to where it was between 2015-20. I think there are only two or three teams that can legitimately win the championship. I consider every other team to just be along for the ride until I see otherwise. Then again, NBA teams are notorious for not taking the regular season seriously. There’s a good chance that some teams are able to turn it on suddenly and play championship-level basketball now that it’s the postseason. We saw it happen last year with the Lakers and Miami, which were both in the Play-In Tournament and made deep postseason runs.
Even though the league has become so top heavy, I still can’t help but feel nostalgic about this time of year. Some of my fondest memories of my youth came watching the NBA postseason late at night while my semester of school was winding down. I really hope teams step up their game these next few weeks. I enjoy parity and having some unpredictability in playoffs.
Play-In Tournament
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) dribbles up court against the Chicago Bulls during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami (46-36) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia (47-35)
With this game in Philadelphia, I’ll give the advantage to the 76ers. Miami has struggled offensively on the road — ranking No. 21 in offensive efficiency. The Heat are a great defensive team, but I’m not convinced they’ll be able to score on Philadelphia, which has been a great defensive team at home. You have to be able to score points consistently to advance in the postseason. Joel Embiid is also expected to be healthy, which will only benefits the 76ers.
Winner: 76ers
Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan (11) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers forward Dean Wade (32) and center Jarrett Allen (31) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Atlanta (36-46) vs. No. 9 Chicago (39-43)
I don’t know if Atlanta is good enough defensively to get out of the play-in tournament. The Hawks might not even be good enough on that end of the court to win this game. They rank No. 27 in the league in defensive efficiency. Chicago has just enough scoring depth — with four different players averaging at least 18 points per game — to take advantage of that mismatch. I also think the Bulls have the coaching advantage in Billy Donovan.
Winner: Bulls
Miami Heat guard Jimmy Butler (22) attempts a shot against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
No. 9 Chicago vs. No. 8 Miami
I doubt Chicago is a good enough team to win this game. The Bulls don’t have the star power to match up with Miami. They’ve also struggled significantly on the road — winning just 19 of 41 games and ranking No. 23 in defensive efficiency. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Heat, who will have the two best players on the court in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. I also think Miami has the coaching advantage in Erik Spoelstra.
Winner: Heat
Western Conference
New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) dunks the ball against Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the second half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) vs. No. 7 New Orleans (49-33)
In essentially a one-game playoff, I’ll give the advantage to LeBron James. He typically saves his best for the postseason and you’ve seen that the last few weeks. The Lakers have won 20 of their last 30 games, and James averaged 26.3 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans has been one of the top defensive teams throughout the regular season, but I’m not convinced it can guard the Lakers well enough to win this game.
Winner: Lakers
Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) shoots the basketball during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State (46-36) vs. No. 9 Sacramento (46-36)
Even though Golden State has been inconsistent this season, I’ll still pick it to win this game. The Warriors have actually been very good on the road — winning 25 games and ranking in the top five in defensive efficiency. Golden State is also a veteran team, whereas Sacramento is one of the younger teams in the league. When these teams met in the postseason last year, the lack of playoff experience was a disadvantage for the Kings.
Winner: Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) dribbles against the Utah Jazz at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State vs. No. 7 New Orleans
Golden State has just been too inconsistent all season, even showing signs of regression. It feels like this will be the end of the Warriors’ run as one of the top teams in the league, which is why I don’t trust them to get out of the play-in tournament. New Orleans is a good team with an ascending star player in Zion Williamson. The Pelicans also rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency at home, so they should be able to stifle Golden State’s offense.
Winner: Pelicans
First round
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) controls the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Boston (64-18)
I find it highly unlikely that Miami gets the same magic that it had last year, when it won the East as a No. 8 seed. That type of run rarely happens in professional sports, specifically in the NBA. I think the Heat will have a difficult time defending and keeping up with Boston’s offense, which ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency and averages 120.6 points per game. I expect this to be a challenging series for the Celtics, but I think they get it done.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Orlando (47-35) vs. No. 4 Cleveland (48-34)
Orlando has been one of the best stories of the season, but I doubt it’ll win this series. The Magic are a very young team that lacks postseason experience. On the other side, Cleveland has a solid squad that’s led by one of the best players in basketball in Donovan Mitchell. Orlando has also been too inconsistent offensively — ranking last among playoff teams in offensive efficiency. I expect the Cavaliers to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Cavaliers in six
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the game against the Chicago Bulls at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Indiana (47-35) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (49-33)
Milwaukee hasn’t played well in recent weeks. The Bucks have posted a record of 19-20 since firing Adrian Griffin back in January — allowing an abysmal 111.8 points per game during that stretch. This could end up being a favorable matchup for Indiana, which averages 123.1 points per game. However, the Pacers are even worse than Milwaukee defensively. The Bucks also have more talent and postseason experience. I think they squeak out a series victory.
Prediction: Bucks in seven
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) brings the ball up court in the fourth quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Philadelphia vs. No. 2 New York (50-32)
Philadelphia won eight games in a row to end the regular season, so it’s a hot team right now. With a healthy Embiid, the 76ers have a shot of winning this series. I have to pick New York to advance, though. The Knicks have been surging the last few weeks — winning 13 of their last 18 games. Losing Julius Randle hurts, but I think New York has enough depth to overcome his absence. The Knicks should also benefit from having home-court advantage.
Prediction: Knicks in seven
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball down the court against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 New Orleans vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City (57-25)
Despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league, Oklahoma City had its best season since Kevin Durant was with the team. Even though they’re inexperienced, I think the Thunder are a real threat to win the West. They have a star player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with some scoring depth. I don’t see Oklahoma City being one-and-done in this postseason.
Prediction: Thunder in six
LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) dribbles against the Golden State Warriors during the second half of the game at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas (50-32) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)
It’s easy to want to pick the Clippers because they have star players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden. However, the Clippers are a team that I don’t trust in the postseason. They’ve won just three playoff series since 2019. Dallas is arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. The Mavericks have won 16 of their last 20 games. The Clippers also aren’t a great defensive team, so I think they’ll have a difficult time defending Luka Dončić.
Prediction: Mavericks in seven
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) celebrates after making a shot against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix (49-33) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (56-26)
I don’t want to do it, but I’ll give the slight advantage in this series to Phoenix. The Suns arguably have the best scoring trio in the league in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Minnesota has been great defensively, but it’ll have a difficult time defending those three players over the course of a series. I’m not convinced that the Timberwolves have a reliable scorer outside of Anthony Edwards. The organization also hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004.
Prediction: Suns in six
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) passes the ball in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Denver (57-25)
I don’t like picking against James in the postseason, but this is feels like a mismatch for the Lakers. Denver has the MVP frontrunner in Nikola Jokić and plenty of scoring depth, including five other players to average a minimum of 10.1 points per game. The Lakers haven’t played well away from home — winning just 19 games and ranking No. 20 in defensive efficiency. It’ll be incredibly difficult for the Lakers to pull off the upset in this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Second round
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) shoots in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Boston
I don’t know if Cleveland has enough reliable scorers to win this series. Boston will try to limit Mitchell’s production, so Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley will have to step up. They’re good players, but I doubt they can be counted on over the course of a series. The Celtics also have a lot more scoring depth, which will be problematic for the Cavaliers’ defense. Boston should get back to the Eastern Conference Finals for a third-straight year.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts after scoring the game-winning basket in overtime against the Sacramento Kings at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 New York
I don’t have much trust in Milwaukee after the way it ended the regular season. The Bucks haven’t been impressive the last few weeks. I’m not even convinced they’ll get past the first round. I feel like I have to pick New York to win this series. The Knicks are playing well right now and they have depth. I also think New York, which ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, should be able to consistently score points against Milwaukee’s porous defense.
Prediction: Knicks in six
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić (77) celibates after forward Tim Hardaway Jr. (not pictured) makes a three point jump shot against the Orlando Magic during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
Dončić has been on fire the last few weeks — averaging 33.2 points per game since mid-February. He’s going to be a problem for Oklahoma City, but I think it’s up to the task. The Thunder rank No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency, so they should be able to slow down Dončić. I don’t think the Mavericks have enough scoring depth to pull off the upset if that happens. This should be an entertaining series, but I have to give the advantage to Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Thunder in six
Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) dribbles against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix vs. No. 2 Denver
There’s no way that I’m picking Phoenix to get the upset in this series. The Suns are one of the more talented teams in the NBA, but they haven’t been a reliable team since acquiring Durant last year. Eventually, teams have to put talent together and show it can win when it matters. Denver is the significantly better team. The Nuggets are great defensively and have plenty of scoring depth to complement Jokić. I expect Denver to make quick work of Phoenix.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Eastern Conference Finals
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) looks to shoot against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro (35) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 New York vs. No. 1 Boston
There’s plenty of room for optimism around New York, but I don’t see it getting past this point. The Knicks just aren’t as talented as Boston right now. With Randle out for the postseason, New York doesn’t have many reliable scorers outside of Jalen Brunson. It’ll be difficult for the Knicks to keep up with the Celtics over the course of a series. It feels like the East is Boston’s to lose, so I expect it to make its second trip to the NBA Finals in the last three years.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Western Conference Finals
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić (15) controls the ball in the second quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
This feels like a tough matchup for Oklahoma City. While I think the Thunder are a legitimate contender, I think their lack of postseason experience will prevent them from getting to the Finals. The main reason why I’m picking Denver to win this series is because Oklahoma City lacks a dynamic big man to defend Jokić, which makes this series a mismatch. If the Thunder can’t limit Jokić’s production, it might end up being a quick victory for the Nuggets.
Prediction: Nuggets in six
2024 NBA Finals
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Boston
It feels like we’re destined for a matchup between these teams in the Finals. They have the most depth and some of the best players in the game at the top of their rotations. Boston feels like a wagon this year, though. The Celtics average nearly 1.2 points per possession, which is the best in the category in over 20 years. I don’t know if any team will be able to slow down the Celtics’ offense this postseason, which has as many as eight quality scoring options on any given day. Defending Jokić will be a very tall order, but I think this Boston team is much better defensively than it was last year. Everything seems to be lining up for the Celtics to win their 18th championship.
Prediction: Celtics in seven Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
“I don’t like it, I don’t agree with it, but I accept it.”
— Lando Calrissian, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018)
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to players against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Purdue (34-4) vs. No. 1 UConn (36-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: UConn -6.5 Over/under: 145.5
Contrary to what we all thought would happen after the way the conference tournaments played out, this NCAA tournament has been pretty normal. The only double-digit seed to advance past the first weekend (and eventually to the Final Four) was a Power 5 school. That’s partly why we have two No. 1 seeds competing in the national championship for the first time since 2021, and just the third time since 2008. UConn and Purdue have been the most consistent teams in this tournament, combining for an average margin of victory of 22.3 points per game. This has a chance to be an entertaining title game.
North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) knocks the ball away from Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After last year’s embarrassing loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers have gotten the monkey off their back by getting to this point. The biggest difference between this Purdue team and last year’s team is a much improved backcourt. In five tournament games, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones have combined to shoot 40.5% from 3-point territory, and committed just 4.6 turnovers per game and averaged nearly 10 points per game apiece. They do a great job of complementing Zach Edey, who’s considered the best player in the country and has averaged 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the tournament. The Boilermakers have also been excellent defensively in their last five games — allowing only 60.2 points per game and holding teams to shoot just 39.3% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. If Purdue continues to shoot well from 3-point range and collect offensive rebounds, it certainly has a chance to knock off the Huskies.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/Arizona Republic-USA TODAY Sports
The defending national champions have shown no signs of slowing down the last few weeks. The Huskies have won 26 of their last 27 games by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. They’ve been impressive offensively in their last five games — shooting 50.8% from the field, and collecting 12 offensive rebounds per game and committing just eight turnovers per game. Unlike the Boilermakers, UConn’s offense has a very balanced scoring attack. The Huskies have had six different players score at least 10 points in a game in tournament play. UConn has also been just as good, if not better, on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies have allowed only 57.2 points per game, and held opposing teams to shoot just 34.6% from the field and 28.1% from beyond the arc. My only concern with UConn is its 3-point shooting, which has been lukewarm at best recently. When you factor that, it’s even more impressive how the Huskies have been able to win games in the tournament so convincingly.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The deciding factor of this game will likely be which team can win in the paint. Even though the Boilermakers have Edey (7’4″), I’m giving that advantage to UConn. The Huskies have more depth in the post with the trio of Donovan Clingan (7’2″), Alex Karaban (6’8″), and Samson Johnson (6’10”), who’ve combined to tally 26 blocks and 80 rebounds in five tournament games. They’ll be a problem for Edey, who isn’t very athletic. If Edey can’t get going, I don’t know how the Boilermakers win. I doubt their backcourt is good enough to pick up the slack given how well UConn has defended 3-pointers. The Huskies have more talent and scoring depth than Purdue, too. I like that UConn has won games in a variety of different ways despite not shooting well from beyond the arc. That’s a sign of a great team. I also think the Huskies will have a significant coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. It just feels like UConn is destined to be the first team to repeat as national champions since Florida did it in 2006-07.
“Close your eyes and pretend it’s all a bad dream. That’s how I get by.”
— Captain Jack Sparrow, “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (2007)
It feels like this offseason has flown by. Maybe it’s because I’ve had other adult duties or because it’s been a relatively uneventful offseason. Regardless, it’s hard to believe that we’re a little over three weeks removed from the start of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Just because it was a relatively uneventful offseason doesn’t mean that there weren’t any moves made. We saw plenty of player movement and we now have an understanding of which positions teams might be targeting in the draft. That’s why I like to publish a mock draft around this time, even though I think I’m a little late with it this year, but it could also just be the way the calendar fell.
I think the biggest storylines heading into this draft aren’t necessarily involving players or positions, but the uncertainty at the top of the draft board. With this being a very good quarterback draft class, I feel like you’ve seen more smokescreens the last few weeks than we’ve seen in recent years. Who knows what to believe? There are also so many questions still to be answered in regards to potential trades: Which team, if any, in the top three will trade back? What is Minnesota’s plan? Is Denver going to remain idle?
I genuinely don’t think we’ll get any answers to those questions before April 25. I think teams want to keep their cards close to their chest, which makes this draft more unpredictable than we’re used to seeing. It’s hard to tell what the board will look like until we get some answers, which is maddening for someone like me who enjoys doing mock drafts. I gave it my best shot, though.
First round:
Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Utah Utes in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina) — QB Caleb Williams, USC
Chicago might’ve entertained trade offers for this pick earlier this offseason, but I doubt that’s the case now. The Bears are likely to draft Williams, especially after they traded Justin Fields. Chicago needs to hit the reset button at quarterback, so picking Williams makes too much sense. He’s arguably the best quarterback prospect to come through the draft in years.
LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) looks to pass the ball during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
2. Washington Commanders (4-13) — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
I wouldn’t rule out Washington trading back if it can’t get Williams, but I doubt that happens. The Commanders traded away Sam Howell, which means their quarterback room is down to Marcus Mariota and Jake Fromm. Washington must add to that position in the draft. Daniels has emerged as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft class. I think he could start right away.
North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
3. New England Patriots (4-13) — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Of the teams with a top three pick, I think New England is the most likely to trade back. I don’t know if the Patriots are that high on these quarterbacks and they might choose to round out their roster. However, New England can’t go into this season without a long-term answer at quarterback. The Patriots have to look to the future at the position and Maye is the best option on the board.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) scores a touchdown against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the fourth quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Don’t rule out Arizona trading out of this pick. I doubt the Cardinals want to draft a wide receiver this high. They’d probably prefer to acquire more picks instead. If Arizona can’t get the value it wants, though, it’s likely picking Harrison. Many draft analysts consider him to be the best prospect in this draft class. Harrison would make an immediate impact with the Cardinals.
LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) hauls in a 46 yard pass for a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — WR Malik Nabers, LSU
I still expect the Chargers to trade out of this pick. If they don’t, I think they’ll use it on a wide receiver. The Chargers overhauled the position by moving on from Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. They really need add a playmaker for Justin Herbert. I don’t know if they can trust Quentin Johnston to step up. Nabers not only fills that need, but he’s arguably the best player on the board.
Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) signals for a first down after catching a pass against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
6. New York Giants (6-11) — WR Rome Odunze, Washington
I actually think the Giants could draft a quarterback with this pick. I think the organization wants to move on from Daniel Jones. If the Giants don’t pull the trigger on a quarterback, which I don’t expect to happen right now, I think they’ll target a pass catcher. Drafting Odunze makes too much sense. The Giants could use someone of his size (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) on the perimeter.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Joe Alt (76) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Jordan Fox (10) during the fourth quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
7. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — T Joe Alt, Notre Dame
After signing Calvin Ridley, I think that rules out Tennessee using this pick on a pass catcher. You just don’t use a top 10 pick on a fourth wide receiver. I expect the Titans to beef up their offensive line, which has been a problem the last few years, by picking Alt. He’s a highly regarded prospect and could start right away at left tackle for Tennessee. He’ll help keep Will Levis upright.
Texas Longhorns tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (0) is tackled by Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner (15) during the game at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 9, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Mandatory Credit: Aaron E. Martinez-USA TODAY NETWORK
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
Atlanta might end up being the only team in the top 10 to target a defensive player. The Falcons need to bolster their pass rush, which has struggled getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks for years. I think Atlanta will value Turner more than the other edge rushers in this draft class because of his combination of twitch and speed. He’ll make an impact in the Falcons’ defense.
LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Army Black Knights defensive back Cameron Jones (10) during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
9. Chicago Bears (7-10) — WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
This might be considered a bit of a reach, but I think Chicago would pull the trigger on a player like Thomas. The Bears just lost Darnell Mooney, who was their best deep threat, this offseason. Thomas was one of the fastest players at the combine and could replace Mooney very well as the vertical playmaker in Chicago’s offense. He’d also make a nice complement to Allen and D.J. Moore.
Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) carries a touchdown reception against the Auburn Tigers during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
10. New York Jets (7-10) — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
The Jets have done a great job patching up their offensive line this offseason after signing Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. I doubt the Jets are done up front, but they can draft best player available with this pick. Bowers isn’t only the best player still on the board, but he fills a need. The Jets lack a tight end that can stretch opposing defenses, so Bowers would be a great addition.
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws against the Bowling Green Falcons in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
With Kirk Cousins gone, Minnesota has no choice but to draft a quarterback in the first round. Sam Darnold isn’t the long-term option. With the way the Vikings have operated recently, I think they’re planning to trade up to get their guy. All reports indicate that Minnesota is very high on McCarthy. He’s more of a project than a prospect, but he has the traits to be successful in the NFL.
Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to throw during the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
12. Denver Broncos (8-9) — QB Bo Nix, Oregon
Like Minnesota, Denver pretty much has to draft a quarterback in the first round. The Broncos can’t go into the season with Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci as the only options in their quarterback room. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Denver trading up, but I think Nix is a great fit with this team. He’s a very accurate passer, which will work well Sean Payton’s offense.
Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
Las Vegas could go in a variety of different directions with this pick, but I think it’ll address the offensive line. The Raiders don’t have many difference makers up front besides left tackle Kolton Miller, and there’s a big hole on the right side of their offensive line. I think Fuaga would be a great addition for Las Vegas. He could make an immediate impact at either right tackle or right guard.
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end JT Tuimoloau (44) goes up against Penn State Nittany Lions offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) during the third quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory credit: The Columbus Dispatch
14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
New Orleans is more likely to address immediate needs instead of looking to the future at certain positions (i.e. quarterback). The biggest need for the Saints is likely addressing the offensive line, specifically the tackle position. I don’t think New Orleans can go into this season with Trevor Penning as its starting left tackle. That’s why drafting Fashanu makes the most sense for the Saints.
Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (27) breaks up a pass intended for Miami (OH) Redhawks wide receiver Gage Larvadain (10) in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
After signing Michael Pittman Jr. to an extension, and with Bowers off the board, I think Indianapolis will add to its secondary with this pick. The Colts haven’t had a great cornerback since Vontae Davis. Mitchell’s stock has skyrocketed after the way he performed at the Senior Bowl and combine. Mitchell would make an immediate impact in Indianapolis.
Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — T Troy Fautanu, Washington
Seattle still has work to do on its offensive line, specifically in the interior. The Seahawks have only five interior offensive linemen currently on their roster, and they have a combined 16 starts between them. They have to improve that area before the season starts. Fautanu is athletic enough to be a tackle in the NFL, but he could also slide inside and make an immediate impact at guard.
Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold (3) defends against a pass intended for Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Ainias Smith (0) during the fourth quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
After franchise tagging Josh Allen and signing Arik Armstead, Jacksonville now seems to be prioritizing its secondary early in the draft. The Jaguars struggled against the pass and could use a cornerback opposite of Tyson Campbell. Arnold has the skillset to develop into the best cornerback out of this draft class. I think he’d make a great addition to Jacksonville’s secondary.
Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman J.C. Latham (65) blocks against the Miami Hurricanes at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) — T JC Latham, Alabama
Cincinnati has struggled to keep Joe Burrow upright since he entered the league. It feels like it’s time for the Bengals to use an early draft pick on an offensive lineman, especially after losing right tackle Jonah Williams during free agency. I think Cincinnati would be a great fit for Latham, who played right tackle in college. He could make an immediate impact in the Bengals’ offense.
Washington State Cougars running back Nakia Watson (25) is brought down by UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Carl Jones Jr. (4) and defensive lineman Laiatu Latu (15) during the second half at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
After Aaron Donald’s retirement, I expect the Rams to bolster their defensive front. They already needed to improve their pass rush even before Donald’s retirement, which now only prioritizes that need. If not for his injury history, Latu might be considered the top edge rusher in this draft class. He has a deep set of pass rush moves that should help him make an impact at the next level.
Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) — IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Pittsburgh must improve its offensive line, which has been one of the worst in the NFL for the last few seasons. The Steelers drafted a long-term tackle in Broderick Jones last year, so it couldn’t hurt for them to prioritize the interior. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a great center since Maurkice Pouncey. Powers-Johnson could be a long-term center and help pave the way for the Steelers’ run game.
Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
21. Miami Dolphins (11-6) — T Amarius Mims, Georgia
Miami dodged a bullet with Terron Armstead electing to return this year. That shouldn’t prevent the Dolphins from looking ahead at the left tackle position, though. Armstead hasn’t exactly been reliable the last few years. Mims might need a “redshirt year” to transition to the NFL, but he’s capable of being a long-term left tackle. I doubt Miami can afford to pass on a player like Mims.
Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) returns an interception for a touchdown during the first quarter against Florida Atlantic at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY NETWORK
22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) — CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
Philadelphia’s defensive issues last year mostly came against the pass. Darius Slay and James Bradberry will be a combined 64 years old this season, and no one knows what the Eagles have in Josh Jobe, Eli Ricks, or Kelee Ringo. That’s why I think Philadelphia needs to use a premium pick on a cornerback. Wiggins is undersized (173 pounds), but that hasn’t stopped Howie Roseman in the past.
Florida State Seminoles defensive end Jared Verse (5) against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland via Houston) — Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
If Minnesota keeps this pick, and the board falls this way, I don’t know if it can pass on Verse. He’s considered one of the top edge rushers in this draft class. I don’t think the Vikings should be done at the position just because they acquired Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel this offseason. Adding Verse would give Minnesota a great pass rush.
Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Tyler Guyton (60) at the line of scrimmage against the Kansas Jayhawks during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) — T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
Offensive tackle was a need for Dallas even before it lost Smith this offseason. Finding his replacement becomes the top priority for the Cowboys. Their offensive line doesn’t look great right now. They’ll have a chance to get a good tackle with this pick, too. Like Mims, it might take Guyton some time to adjust to the NFL, but he has the traits to be a long-term left tackle.
Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton gets lined up before a play. Mandatory credit: Duke Athletics
25. Green Bay Packers (9-8) — T Graham Barton, Duke
The closer we get to the draft, the more I think Green Bay will target an offensive lineman with this pick. The Packers might have two solid tackles in Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom, but they need depth at the position after moving on from David Bakhtiari. Barton feels like Green Bay’s type of player. Barton fits the size and athletic thresholds that the Packers value.
Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) celebrates after sacking Massachusetts quarterback Taisun Phommachanh in the first half of a NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in State College, Pa. Mandatory credit: Hanover Evening Sun
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) — Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
Tampa Bay’s pass rush has declined since 2020, and it got worse after moving on from Shaquil Barrett. Yaya Diaby showed promise as a rookie, but Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t been the player that the Buccaneers thought they were getting. Tampa Bay could use Robinson. I still think he’ll be a first-round pick after the way Robinson performed at the combine.
Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates after a sack against TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ricardo B. Brazziell-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona’s defensive front leaves a lot to be desired, particularly in the interior. The Cardinals don’t have a difference maker, even after signing Justin Jones this offseason. If Murphy is still on the board, I think Arizona would pick him and rush the card in to commissioner Roger Goodell. Murphy is a great fit for the Cardinals’ defense and would likely make an immediate impact.
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) carries the ball in the first half of the Longhorns’ game against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sara Diggins-USA TODAY Sports
You can’t teach speed. That’s I’m expecting Worthy to be a first-round pick after breaking the 40-yard dash record at the combine. I think the most likely team to draft him is Buffalo, which needs to revamp its wide receiver room after losing Gabe Davis and the drama surrounding Stefan Diggs. Worthy is a vertical playmaker that would complement Josh Allen’s arm strength very well.
Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Cooper DeJean (3) returns a punt against the Western Michigan Broncos during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
29. Detroit Lions (12-5) — CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
Detroit has done a great job revamping its secondary this offseason after acquiring Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson. There’s still work to do, though. That’s why drafting DeJean makes sense for the Lions. He’s a versatile defensive back that can play either cornerback or safety, and could likely contribute right away. Figure out which position DeJean will play at a later date.
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches a ball for a touchdown against Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 9, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Mandatory Credit: Aaron E. Martinez-USA TODAY NETWORK
After releasing Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore needs to add another pass catcher to its offense. Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman aren’t difference makers. That leaves only Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. That’s not enough. Mitchell would be a great addition to Baltimore’s offense. Having his size (6-foot-2, 205 pounds) on the perimeter would be beneficial to the Ravens’ passing attack.
Illinois Fighting Illini defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton (4) tackles Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
San Francisco’s defensive front isn’t as menacing as it used to be. That’s especially true now that the 49ers have moved on from Armstead. They could use help in the interior of their defensive front, which is why Newton would be a great addition. He’s arguably the most complete prospect at the position in this draft class. Newton will make an impact against both the run and pass.
Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) — T Jordan Morgan, Arizona
Contrary to the pundits, I doubt Kansas City uses this pick on a pass catcher. The Chiefs haven’t used a first-round pick on one since Andy Reid got there in 2013. Instead, I think Kansas City will try to find a left tackle of the future. Morgan might end up at guard one day, but he’s athletic enough to start his career at tackle. Keeping Patrick Mahomes upright should be the top priority.
Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) runs against Missouri Tigers defensive back Tre’Vez Johnson (4) after a catch during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Second round:
Pick
Player
33. Carolina Panthers (2-15)
WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
34. New England Patriots
IOL Zach Frazier, West Virginia
35. Arizona Cardinals
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
36. Washington Commanders
Edge Darius Robinson, Missouri
37. Los Angeles Chargers
CB TJ Tampa, Iowa State
38. Tennessee Titans
Edge Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan
39. Carolina Panthers (from New York Giants)
WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
40. Washington Commanders (from Chicago)
T Patrick Paul, Houston
41. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets)
LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M
42. Houston Texans (from Minnesota)
DL Braden Fiske, Florida State
43. Atlanta Falcons
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
44. Las Vegas Raiders
QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
45. New Orleans Saints (from Denver)
CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia
46. Indianapolis Colts
DL T’Vondre Sweat, Texas
47. New York Giants (from Seattle)
S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
48. Jacksonville Jaguars
WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
49. Cincinnati Bengals
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas
50. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)
T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
51. Pittsburgh Steelers
CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
52. Los Angeles Rams
DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan
53. Philadelphia Eagles
WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
54. Cleveland Browns (11-6)
LB Payton Wilson, NC State
55. Miami Dolphins
IOL Christian Haynes, UConn
56. Dallas Cowboys
RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
IOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
58. Green Bay Packers
S Jaden Hicks, Washington State
59. Houston Texans (10-7)
T Dominick Puni, Kansas
60. Buffalo Bills
S Javon Bullard, Georgia
61. Detroit Lions
WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
62. Baltimore Ravens
LB Junior Colson, Michigan
63. San Francisco 49ers
T Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
64. Kansas City Chiefs
WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina
Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Chris Braswell (41) pressures Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
Third round:
Pick
Player
65. Carolina Panthers
Edge Chris Braswell, Alabama
66. Arizona Cardinals
Edge Jonah Elliss, Utah
67. Washington Commanders
Edge Bralen Trice, Washington
68. New England Patriots
WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina
69. Los Angeles Chargers
DL Michael Hall, Ohio State
70. New York Giants
RB Trey Benson, Florida State
71. Arizona Cardinals (from Tennessee)
LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson
72. New York Jets
T Kiran Amegadjie, Yale
73. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota)
IOL Zak Zinter, Michigan
74. Atlanta Falcons
Edge Adisa Isaac, Penn State
75. Chicago Bears
Edge Mo Kamara, Colorado State
76. Denver Broncos
DL Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson
77. Las Vegas Raiders
CB Max Melton, Rutgers
78. Washington Commanders (from Seattle)
WR Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
79. Atlanta Falcons (from Jacksonville)
WR Jermaine Burton, Alabama
80. Cincinnati Bengals
DL Maason Smith, LSU
81. Seattle Seahawks (from New Orleans via Denver)
Edge Brandon Dorlus, Oregon
82. Indianapolis Colts
TE Cade Stover, Ohio State
83. Los Angeles Rams
CB Kris Abrams Draine, Missouri
84. Pittsburgh Steelers
WR Javon Baker, UCF
85. Cleveland Browns
WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville
Miami Dolphins
Pick Forfeited
86. Houston Texans (from Philadelphia)
CB DJ James, Auburn
87. Dallas Cowboys
DL DeWayne Carter, Duke
88. Green Bay Packers
CB Cam Hart, Notre Dame
89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
90. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
91. Green Bay Packers (from Buffalo)
CB Jarrian Jones, Florida State
92. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Detroit)
S Kamren Kinchens, Miami
93. Baltimore Ravens
CB Kamal Hadden, Tennessee
94. San Francisco 49ers
CB Andru Phillips, Kentucky
95. Kansas City Chiefs
CB Khyree Jackson, Oregon
96. Jacksonville Jaguars (compensatory pick)
Edge Austin Booker, Kansas
97. Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory pick)
CB Caelen Carson, Wake Forest
98. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory pick; from Philadelphia)
T Roger Rosengarten, Washington
99. Los Angeles Rams (Resolution JC-2A pick)
QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
100. Washington Commanders (Resolution JC-2A pick; from San Francisco)
“We are card counters at the blackjack table and we’re gonna turn the odds on the casino.”
— Billy Beane, “Moneyball” (2011)
Texas Rangers manger Bruce Bochy (15) is presented with the Worlds Series trophy after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks in game five of the 2023 World Series at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to believe that baseball’s Opening Day is already here. I feel like I was just watching the World Series the other day and now we’re on the doorstep of a new season. Now, technically, the regular season started last week when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego played two games in Seoul, South Korea. So, I’m a little late with these predictions, but that shouldn’t count against me. Anyway, this might’ve been the first time in years that we didn’t have any monumental news in the offseason.
That’s right. No significant rule changes, no teams changing names, no lockout that resulted in the season being pushed back, and no pandemic that shortened the regular season by nearly 100 games.
I suppose the only big news was Oakland’s move to Las Vegas being approved by the owners, which was expected. Now, baseball’s expansion to 32 teams is officially on the horizon. That’s a topic for another day, though.
As I’ve been getting my predictions ready, I see more of the same at the top of baseball. There are still only about four or five teams that can legitimately win the World Series. However, there are several teams that I think can compete for the combined six wild card spots. There are still your “usual suspects” that have been wild cards the last few years (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Toronto, etc.). We also saw many teams break through last year and are now ahead of schedule in rebuilds like Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Miami. This might be the most competitive baseball has been for quite some time.
With this much parity, it’ll be exciting to watch this many good teams competing for a select few playoff spots. That just means we’re in for some compelling storylines the next few months.
Seattle Mariners centerfielder Julio Rodríguez (44) celebrates ater hitting an RBI-single during the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports
American League award winners
Award
Winner
MVP
OF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle
Cy Young
SP Framber Valdez, Houston
Rookie of the Year
1B Evan Carter, Texas
Price’s predicted AL award winners
I’ll be bold and pick Rodríguez to win AL MVP. He’s been an ascending player since his rookie season in 2022 — combining for 325 hits, 60 home runs, and 178 RBIs each of the last two seasons. Rodríguez has finished in the top eight in AL MVP voting during that stretch, too. Even though he just signed a big extension, I think Rodríguez’s best baseball is still well ahead of him.
In 2022, Valdez was in the conversation to win AL Cy Young — finishing in the top five of the voting process — after posting a 2.82 ERA with 194 strikeouts. He fell off a bit last year, but not much. Valdez still had an ERA of 3.45 and 200 strikeouts. I expect him to return to 2022 form since he’s entering salary arbitration and will be motivated to get a long-term extension.
I’ll go against the grain and pick Carter to win AL Rookie of the Year. He should benefit after being called up late last year. He played well in 23 regular season games — posting a batting average of .306 and a slugging percentage of .645. Carter also played well in the postseason and helped Texas win its first World Series. I think he could pick up where he left off by having all that experience.
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
AL East
Team
Record
1
Baltimore Orioles
95-67
2
New York Yankees*
90-72
3
Tampa Bay Rays
87-75
4
Toronto Blue Jays
83-79
5
Boston Red Sox
73-89
Price’s AL East projections (* wild card team)
I can’t say enough good things about Baltimore. The Orioles posted a record of 178-368 between 2018-21 and have turned things around the last two seasons, including winning 101 games in 2023. Baltimore is loaded with young talent, specifically Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. The Orioles made big splashes this offseason by acquiring former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and Craig Kimbrel. This team is ready to make a run at a World Series. I don’t expect a drop-off from last year.
The injury to Gerrit Cole will hinder the Yankees to some degree. They still have Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman, but losing last year’s Cy Young award winner will hurt them. However, I still expect the Yankees to be better than what they were last year (82-80). The addition of Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo will give them more pop to their lineup, which struggled to score runs last year. There’s pressure on this Yankees team to play well, at least with Aaron Boone as manager. I think the Yankees will be motivated.
I have some concerns about Tampa Bay entering this season. The Rays traded away Tyler Glasnow, Wander Franco is expected to be removed from the roster, and there are health concerns surrounding pitchers Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan. However, I trust Tampa Bay to be pretty good once again. The Rays have one of the best managers in baseball in Kevin Cash, an up-and-coming pitcher to lead the starting rotation in Zach Eflin, and Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena in the linup.
Unlike Tampa Bay, I don’t have much trust in Toronto anymore. I’ve been burned by the Blue Jays too many times, and last year was a disaster. Several players regressed, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Alek Manoah. Toronto needs to turn things around quickly. Its talented, young core isn’t under club control for much longer and the division is only getting tougher. We’ll see if the Blue Jays can prove me wrong, but I think the ship has sailed on this team.
Boston will likely be the best fifth-place team this season. The Red Sox have a great manager in Alex Cora, and two studs in their lineup in Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida. I even like some of the acquisitions that this team made in the offseason, specifically Liam Hendriks and Lucas Giolito. The problem is that Boston’s starting rotation, bullpen, and farm system still leave a lot to be desired. It’s also going to be incredibly difficult for the Red Sox to be competitive in this gauntlet of a division.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo López (49) pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
AL Central
Team
Record
1
Minnesota Twins
88-74
2
Cleveland Guardians
79-83
3
Detroit Tigers
78-84
4
Kansas City Royals
71-91
5
Chicago White Sox
63-99
Price’s AL Central projections (* wild card team)
This will likely be the weakest division in the AL and I think Minnesota should be considered the favorite to win it. The Twins have won the AL Central three times in the last five seasons. They have a decent starting pitching rotation, led by Pablo López, who collected 234 strikeouts last year. Minnesota has a few quality bats in its lineup, including Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. The main reason why I trust the Twins, though, is Rocco Baldelli, who’s one of the better managers in baseball.
Cleveland lost a Hall of Fame-caliber manager in Terry Francona this offseason, but I still think this team has enough talent to be competitive. The Guardians have the best starting pitching rotation in this division, including breakout star Tanner Bibee and Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Cleveland’s lineup doesn’t have much outside of José Ramírez, which will likely hold this team back from winning the AL Central. I also don’t know what to expect from first-year manager Stephen Vogt.
Detroit finally broke though and showed signs of being competitive last year, winning 78 games for the first time since 2016. The Tigers have some talented young players in Spencer Torkelson, Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Reese Olson. I’m not sure if Detroit will be much better than it was in 2023, though. The Tigers don’t have much depth, Javier Báez hasn’t been the player that they thought they were getting, and I think losing pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez will hurt this team.
Kansas City has finished last in the AL Central in each of the last two seasons. I expect that to change this year, though. The Royals have called up some talented young players in recent years like Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel García, Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Cole Ragans. They also added some veterans to complement their young core. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kansas City finds a way to finish higher in the standings, but I think it’ll be a tall order. The Royals just don’t have much pitching depth.
I don’t think any team has disappointed more in recent years that the White Sox. Their promising young players that we raved about years ago either haven’t lived up to expectations or have regressed. This has caused the organization to trade away some of its better players like Dylan Cease and Giolito. Not to mention the departures of José Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Hendriks. I think it’ll take Yoán Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. to return to form in order for this team to get out of the cellar.
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) hits a two-run home during the ninth inning in game one of the 2023 World Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
AL West
Team
Record
1
Texas Rangers
92-70
2
Houston Astros*
91-71
3
Seattle Mariners*
89-73
4
Los Angeles Angels
72-90
5
Oakland A’s
56-106
Price’s AL West projections (* wild card team)
Texas hasn’t won the AL West since 2016, but I don’t see any reason to think that the defending World Series champion will regress. The Rangers have a slew of ascending players in Adolis García, Josh Jung, Evan Carter, and Leody Taveras. What’s even more impressive about Texas winning the World Series last year is that it did it without Jacob deGrom and with Max Scherzer in a limited role. deGrom and Scherzer should both be healthy to start this season, which will only benefit the Rangers’ pitching.
I don’t like not picking Houston to win this division because it’s won it in six of the last seven seasons. However, I’m not convinced that the Astros are better than Texas right now, and they’re getting a little older. I also don’t know what to expect from first-year manager Joe Espada. Houston is still one of the most talented teams in all of baseball, though. The addition of Josh Hader will really bolster the Astros’ bullpen. This team is still talented and experienced enough to get back to the postseason.
It’s easy to fall for the narrative that Seattle fell off last year, but that’s not the case. The Mariners won 88 games, including winning 43 of their last 73 games. This team is still very talented. Seattle has a great trio of starting pitchers in Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. The Mariners don’t have the best collection of bats in their lineup besides Julio Rodríguez, but the addition of Jorge Polanco should help. I expect this Seattle team to resemble the 2022 team, which won 90 games and made the postseason.
The best chance for the Angels to win a championship with Mike Trout is in the rearview mirror. This team regressed this offseason after losing Ohtani, Chris Devenski, and Hunter Renfroe, and electing to not re-sign C.J. Cron, Mike Moustakas, Jake Lamb, and Gio Urshela. I don’t see the Angels being that competitive this season. Their roster leaves a lot to be desired outside of Trout, and they don’t have much pitching without Ohtani. It feels like the Angels are in the beginning of another rebuild.
Oakland is in the middle of a major rebuild. The A’s haven’t won more than 60 games each of the last two seasons. They ranked in the bottom two in all of baseball in team batting average and ERA last year, and didn’t do much to improve in those areas this offseason. I don’t see any reason to think Oakland might exceed expectations. The good news is that the A’s farm system seems to be improving. For the time being, though, it feels like this team is more focused on its impending move to Las Vegas.
Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Mookie Betts (50) rounds first base after hitting a double in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
National League award winners
Award
Winner
MVP
SS Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Cy Young
SP Zac Gallen, Arizona
Rookie of the Year
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Price’s predicted NL award winners
I don’t know if picking Betts to win NL MVP is a “bold pick.” He won AL MVP when he was in Boston, and Betts finished in the top five in NL MVP voting each of the last two seasons. Him making the change to shortstop from the outfield makes him a bit of a bold pick to win the award, though. Betts was impressive at the position, and hit the ball very well, during Spring Training.
Keep an eye on Gallen when it comes to the NL Cy Young award. He got off to a hot start last year, with an ERA of 2.36 in the middle of May, before cooling off the following months. Despite cooling off, Gallen still finished in the top 10 in the NL in ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts. He’s coming toward the end of his service time, so he’ll also be motivated to get a long-term contract.
Yamamoto is considered a heavy favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year this season. He might be the best player to come out of the Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball league since Shohei Ohtani. In his six seasons in the NPB, Yamamoto was a five-time All-Star and three-time league MVP. He’s going to be a problem for the NL. Don’t rule out Yamamoto for the Cy Young award, either.
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) throws against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
NL East
Team
Record
1
Atlanta Braves
102-60
2
Philadelphia Phillies*
90-72
3
Miami Marlins
76-86
4
New York Mets
74-88
5
Washington Nationals
64-98
Price’s NL East projections (* wild card team)
I don’t know if a team in the NL East is good enough to usurp Atlanta, which has won this division six consecutive seasons. The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball, led by last year’s MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr., along with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies. Atlanta added to its pitching, which was already great, by acquiring Aaron Bummer and Chris Sale. They should complement the likes of Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and Charlie Morton. I expect the Braves to be near the top of NL once again.
If any team is capable of ending Atlanta’s streak of winning this division, it’s Philadelphia. I think the Phillies are the third-most talented team in the NL. They have an explosive offense, which includes Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber. If Philadelphia has a weakness, it might be its pitching. However, I think the Phillies have a solid trio in their starting rotation in Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Taijuan Walker. Barring any injuries, this team should be in the mix to win the NL pennant.
Miami has been trending in the right direction for years. We saw that pay off last year, with the Marlins making the playoffs in a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003. They have some terrific, young pitchers in their starting rotation. Miami made some nice additions to its lineup this offseason, too. I also think Skip Schumaker proved himself to be an up-and-coming manager. However, I think Sandy Alcántara starting on the 60-day DL will prevent this team from getting back to the postseason.
The Mets are capable of scoring runs and I expect Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso to be much better than what they were in 2023. The problem that I have with this team is that its pitching leaves a lot to be desired outside of Kodai Senga. The Mets will be relying on José Quintana and Luis Severino to play well, and I think their best days are in the rearview mirror. This team also has a new manager in Carlos Mendoza and I don’t know what to expect. I’ll be surprised if the Mets get back to the playoffs.
Washington has been in a rebuild since winning the World Series in 2019, and hasn’t won more than 71 games since 2021. Granted, the Nationals did exceed expectations a bit last year. I don’t know if Washington improved that much this offseason, despite acquiring some decent bats. As for pitching, the Nationals are getting older at the position, Patrick Corbin hasn’t been the player they thought they were getting, and they don’t have much of a bullpen. This team is likely still a ways from being competitive.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger (24) is greeted by right fielder Seiya Suzuki (27) after hitting a grand slam home run against the Boston Red Sox during the third inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
NL Central
Team
Record
1
Chicago Cubs
90-72
2
Cincinnati Reds*
86-76
3
St. Louis Cardinals
81-81
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
75-87
5
Milwaukee Brewers
73-89
Price’s NL Central projections (* wild card team)
This is easily the most wide open division in the NL. I’ll give the slight advantage to the Cubs to come out on top. They have enough talent to be a pretty good team, which is part of the reason why they won 83 games last year. The Cubs added some needed depth to their starting rotation by acquiring Shōta Imanaga. The main reason why I like this team, though, is because it hired Craig Counsell to be its new manager. He’s a great manager that can squeeze out more wins from a roster ready to compete.
Cincinnati showed last year that it’s ahead of schedule in its rebuild. This is an ascending team that finished just two games out of the last wild card spot. Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Andrew Abbott are 28 years old or younger, and each came on the scene. I have reservations about the health of starting pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but the Reds should have a great bullpen to help balance that. I like Cincinnati to get back to the postseason.
I expect St. Louis to be much better this year than it was last year, when it finished last in the division for the first time ever. The Cardinals have a good mix of veterans and talented, young players in their lineup. They even added Brandon Crawford to help their offense. However, I’m not convinced that adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn is enough to improve the Cardinals’ pitching, which was a major problem last year. I still have more questions than answers when it comes to St. Louis.
I’m banking on Pittsburgh’s young talent to take a step forward this season. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and Mitch Keller are solid players. Now, it’s time for young players like Oneil Cruz, Ji-hwan Bae, and Luis Ortiz to show improvement. The Pirates have some good veteran leaders to complement their young core, too. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that this team finds a way to finish in the top three spots in this division. I need to see it happen, though, because I don’t like Pittsburgh’s pitching.
I might be too reactive to how the offseason played out for Milwaukee, but it feels like a prime candidate to regress. The Brewers’ pitching, which was a strength, took a hit after trading Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff is starting on the 60-day DL. Milwaukee also lost manager Counsell, who led the team to five postseason appearances in the last six seasons. The Brewers still have some talented players, but I think they’ll struggle to be competitive because every team in this division improved this offseason.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani against the Seattle Mariners during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
NL West
Team
Record
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
108-54
2
Arizona Diamondbacks*
88-74
3
San Diego Padres
80-82
4
San Francisco Giants
79-83
5
Colorado Rockies
57-105
Price’s NL West projections (* wild card team)
I don’t think any team improved more this offseason than the Dodgers. Not only did they give Ohtani a $700 million contract, but they also acquired Glasnow, Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández, and James Paxton. Don’t forget that the Dodgers already had one of the better rosters in all of baseball, and will start the season with pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Walker Buehler recovering from injuries. If/when they get healthy, I fully expect the Dodgers to make a run at the World Series.
Arizona vastly exceeded expectations last year, winning 84 games and getting to the World Series. It’s hard to tell if the Diamondbacks caught lightning in a bottle, or if that’s the version that we’ll see from them for the foreseeable future. I actually think it’s the latter. Arizona a solid trio of starting pitchers in Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodríguez. The Diamondbacks have a rising star in their lineup in Corbin Carroll, along with some quality bats to complement him. I don’t see this team regressing much at all.
Until I see otherwise, I’m putting San Diego third in this division. It looked like the Padres were an ascending team with a plethora of young talent back in 2020, but they have one postseason appearance in the last three years. San Diego certainly has enough talent to be one of the top teams in the NL, and it added a great pitcher in Dylan Cease this offseason. I just don’t have much trust in this team. The Padres have essentially been a .500 team the last few seasons and I anticipate a similar result in 2024.
I don’t like having San Francisco this low because I really like its pitching. Logan Webb and Alex Cobb are two of the better pitchers in baseball, and the Giants added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Jordan Hicks. I also think Bob Melvin is a good manager, which could lead to more wins for a San Francisco team that was near .500 last year. However, the Giants’ lineup leaves a lot to be desired. This team just doesn’t have much pop at the plate and I don’t know how it’ll be able to score runs.
Alongside Oakland, I think Colorado will be in the running for one of the worst teams in baseball. As always, the Rockies should be able to hit the ball, led by talented, young players in Ezequiel Tovar and Nolan Jones. However, this team had historically bad pitching last year, ranking last in baseball in team ERA (5.67). Colorado acquired Cal Quantrill to help with that, but it won’t be enough to improve the team’s win total that much. This is a difficult division and the Rockies are easily the worst team in it.
2024 World Series
Baltimore vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
In the AL, I’ll go out on a limb and pick Baltimore to get to the World Series for the first time since 1983. The Orioles have done an excellent job of assembling young, talented players the last few years, and most of them are entering their third or fourth year in the majors. Adding Burnes to an already pretty good pitching staff could get Baltimore over the hump in the AL. As for the NL, I have to go with the Dodgers. They have the best collection of talent in baseball, which features four former MVPs in Freddie Freeman, Betts, Kershaw, and Ohtani. The Dodgers are loaded with postseason experience, too. I just don’t think any team in the NL is on the same level as them right now.
Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) runs after hitting a double against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The excuses are done for the Dodgers. They’ve had one of the best rosters in baseball, if not the best, for the last few years. The Dodgers were busy in the offseason to add to that roster by acquiring Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Paxton. Their pitching staff ought to be able to tread water until Kershaw, May, Gonsolin, and Buehler are back on the active roster. The Dodgers will have more quality arms than they’ll know what to do with when those pitchers get healthy. They should get plenty of run support from their lineup, and they have a deep farm system. Barring any injuries, I don’t know if any team can stop the Dodgers from winning the World Series this season.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
All Things Sports from a Millennial 