Movie quote of the day:
“We are card counters at the blackjack table and we’re gonna turn the odds on the casino.”
— Billy Beane, “Moneyball” (2011)
It’s hard to believe that baseball’s Opening Day is already here. I feel like I was just watching the World Series the other day and now we’re on the doorstep of a new season. Now, technically, the regular season started last week when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego played two games in Seoul, South Korea. So, I’m a little late with these predictions, but that shouldn’t count against me. Anyway, this might’ve been the first time in years that we didn’t have any monumental news in the offseason.
That’s right. No significant rule changes, no teams changing names, no lockout that resulted in the season being pushed back, and no pandemic that shortened the regular season by nearly 100 games.
I suppose the only big news was Oakland’s move to Las Vegas being approved by the owners, which was expected. Now, baseball’s expansion to 32 teams is officially on the horizon. That’s a topic for another day, though.
As I’ve been getting my predictions ready, I see more of the same at the top of baseball. There are still only about four or five teams that can legitimately win the World Series. However, there are several teams that I think can compete for the combined six wild card spots. There are still your “usual suspects” that have been wild cards the last few years (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Toronto, etc.). We also saw many teams break through last year and are now ahead of schedule in rebuilds like Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Miami. This might be the most competitive baseball has been for quite some time.
With this much parity, it’ll be exciting to watch this many good teams competing for a select few playoff spots. That just means we’re in for some compelling storylines the next few months.
American League award winners
| Award | Winner |
| MVP | OF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle |
| Cy Young | SP Framber Valdez, Houston |
| Rookie of the Year | 1B Evan Carter, Texas |
I’ll be bold and pick Rodríguez to win AL MVP. He’s been an ascending player since his rookie season in 2022 — combining for 325 hits, 60 home runs, and 178 RBIs each of the last two seasons. Rodríguez has finished in the top eight in AL MVP voting during that stretch, too. Even though he just signed a big extension, I think Rodríguez’s best baseball is still well ahead of him.
In 2022, Valdez was in the conversation to win AL Cy Young — finishing in the top five of the voting process — after posting a 2.82 ERA with 194 strikeouts. He fell off a bit last year, but not much. Valdez still had an ERA of 3.45 and 200 strikeouts. I expect him to return to 2022 form since he’s entering salary arbitration and will be motivated to get a long-term extension.
I’ll go against the grain and pick Carter to win AL Rookie of the Year. He should benefit after being called up late last year. He played well in 23 regular season games — posting a batting average of .306 and a slugging percentage of .645. Carter also played well in the postseason and helped Texas win its first World Series. I think he could pick up where he left off by having all that experience.
AL East
| Team | Record | |
| 1 | Baltimore Orioles | 95-67 |
| 2 | New York Yankees* | 90-72 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 87-75 |
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays | 83-79 |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | 73-89 |
I can’t say enough good things about Baltimore. The Orioles posted a record of 178-368 between 2018-21 and have turned things around the last two seasons, including winning 101 games in 2023. Baltimore is loaded with young talent, specifically Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. The Orioles made big splashes this offseason by acquiring former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and Craig Kimbrel. This team is ready to make a run at a World Series. I don’t expect a drop-off from last year.
The injury to Gerrit Cole will hinder the Yankees to some degree. They still have Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman, but losing last year’s Cy Young award winner will hurt them. However, I still expect the Yankees to be better than what they were last year (82-80). The addition of Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo will give them more pop to their lineup, which struggled to score runs last year. There’s pressure on this Yankees team to play well, at least with Aaron Boone as manager. I think the Yankees will be motivated.
I have some concerns about Tampa Bay entering this season. The Rays traded away Tyler Glasnow, Wander Franco is expected to be removed from the roster, and there are health concerns surrounding pitchers Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan. However, I trust Tampa Bay to be pretty good once again. The Rays have one of the best managers in baseball in Kevin Cash, an up-and-coming pitcher to lead the starting rotation in Zach Eflin, and Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena in the linup.
Unlike Tampa Bay, I don’t have much trust in Toronto anymore. I’ve been burned by the Blue Jays too many times, and last year was a disaster. Several players regressed, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Alek Manoah. Toronto needs to turn things around quickly. Its talented, young core isn’t under club control for much longer and the division is only getting tougher. We’ll see if the Blue Jays can prove me wrong, but I think the ship has sailed on this team.
Boston will likely be the best fifth-place team this season. The Red Sox have a great manager in Alex Cora, and two studs in their lineup in Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida. I even like some of the acquisitions that this team made in the offseason, specifically Liam Hendriks and Lucas Giolito. The problem is that Boston’s starting rotation, bullpen, and farm system still leave a lot to be desired. It’s also going to be incredibly difficult for the Red Sox to be competitive in this gauntlet of a division.
AL Central
| Team | Record | |
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | 88-74 |
| 2 | Cleveland Guardians | 79-83 |
| 3 | Detroit Tigers | 78-84 |
| 4 | Kansas City Royals | 71-91 |
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | 63-99 |
This will likely be the weakest division in the AL and I think Minnesota should be considered the favorite to win it. The Twins have won the AL Central three times in the last five seasons. They have a decent starting pitching rotation, led by Pablo López, who collected 234 strikeouts last year. Minnesota has a few quality bats in its lineup, including Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. The main reason why I trust the Twins, though, is Rocco Baldelli, who’s one of the better managers in baseball.
Cleveland lost a Hall of Fame-caliber manager in Terry Francona this offseason, but I still think this team has enough talent to be competitive. The Guardians have the best starting pitching rotation in this division, including breakout star Tanner Bibee and Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Cleveland’s lineup doesn’t have much outside of José Ramírez, which will likely hold this team back from winning the AL Central. I also don’t know what to expect from first-year manager Stephen Vogt.
Detroit finally broke though and showed signs of being competitive last year, winning 78 games for the first time since 2016. The Tigers have some talented young players in Spencer Torkelson, Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Reese Olson. I’m not sure if Detroit will be much better than it was in 2023, though. The Tigers don’t have much depth, Javier Báez hasn’t been the player that they thought they were getting, and I think losing pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez will hurt this team.
Kansas City has finished last in the AL Central in each of the last two seasons. I expect that to change this year, though. The Royals have called up some talented young players in recent years like Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel García, Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Cole Ragans. They also added some veterans to complement their young core. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kansas City finds a way to finish higher in the standings, but I think it’ll be a tall order. The Royals just don’t have much pitching depth.
I don’t think any team has disappointed more in recent years that the White Sox. Their promising young players that we raved about years ago either haven’t lived up to expectations or have regressed. This has caused the organization to trade away some of its better players like Dylan Cease and Giolito. Not to mention the departures of José Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Hendriks. I think it’ll take Yoán Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. to return to form in order for this team to get out of the cellar.
AL West
| Team | Record | |
| 1 | Texas Rangers | 92-70 |
| 2 | Houston Astros* | 91-71 |
| 3 | Seattle Mariners* | 89-73 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | 72-90 |
| 5 | Oakland A’s | 56-106 |
Texas hasn’t won the AL West since 2016, but I don’t see any reason to think that the defending World Series champion will regress. The Rangers have a slew of ascending players in Adolis García, Josh Jung, Evan Carter, and Leody Taveras. What’s even more impressive about Texas winning the World Series last year is that it did it without Jacob deGrom and with Max Scherzer in a limited role. deGrom and Scherzer should both be healthy to start this season, which will only benefit the Rangers’ pitching.
I don’t like not picking Houston to win this division because it’s won it in six of the last seven seasons. However, I’m not convinced that the Astros are better than Texas right now, and they’re getting a little older. I also don’t know what to expect from first-year manager Joe Espada. Houston is still one of the most talented teams in all of baseball, though. The addition of Josh Hader will really bolster the Astros’ bullpen. This team is still talented and experienced enough to get back to the postseason.
It’s easy to fall for the narrative that Seattle fell off last year, but that’s not the case. The Mariners won 88 games, including winning 43 of their last 73 games. This team is still very talented. Seattle has a great trio of starting pitchers in Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. The Mariners don’t have the best collection of bats in their lineup besides Julio Rodríguez, but the addition of Jorge Polanco should help. I expect this Seattle team to resemble the 2022 team, which won 90 games and made the postseason.
The best chance for the Angels to win a championship with Mike Trout is in the rearview mirror. This team regressed this offseason after losing Ohtani, Chris Devenski, and Hunter Renfroe, and electing to not re-sign C.J. Cron, Mike Moustakas, Jake Lamb, and Gio Urshela. I don’t see the Angels being that competitive this season. Their roster leaves a lot to be desired outside of Trout, and they don’t have much pitching without Ohtani. It feels like the Angels are in the beginning of another rebuild.
Oakland is in the middle of a major rebuild. The A’s haven’t won more than 60 games each of the last two seasons. They ranked in the bottom two in all of baseball in team batting average and ERA last year, and didn’t do much to improve in those areas this offseason. I don’t see any reason to think Oakland might exceed expectations. The good news is that the A’s farm system seems to be improving. For the time being, though, it feels like this team is more focused on its impending move to Las Vegas.
National League award winners
| Award | Winner |
| MVP | SS Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Cy Young | SP Zac Gallen, Arizona |
| Rookie of the Year | SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers |
I don’t know if picking Betts to win NL MVP is a “bold pick.” He won AL MVP when he was in Boston, and Betts finished in the top five in NL MVP voting each of the last two seasons. Him making the change to shortstop from the outfield makes him a bit of a bold pick to win the award, though. Betts was impressive at the position, and hit the ball very well, during Spring Training.
Keep an eye on Gallen when it comes to the NL Cy Young award. He got off to a hot start last year, with an ERA of 2.36 in the middle of May, before cooling off the following months. Despite cooling off, Gallen still finished in the top 10 in the NL in ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts. He’s coming toward the end of his service time, so he’ll also be motivated to get a long-term contract.
Yamamoto is considered a heavy favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year this season. He might be the best player to come out of the Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball league since Shohei Ohtani. In his six seasons in the NPB, Yamamoto was a five-time All-Star and three-time league MVP. He’s going to be a problem for the NL. Don’t rule out Yamamoto for the Cy Young award, either.
NL East
| Team | Record | |
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | 102-60 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies* | 90-72 |
| 3 | Miami Marlins | 76-86 |
| 4 | New York Mets | 74-88 |
| 5 | Washington Nationals | 64-98 |
I don’t know if a team in the NL East is good enough to usurp Atlanta, which has won this division six consecutive seasons. The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball, led by last year’s MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr., along with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies. Atlanta added to its pitching, which was already great, by acquiring Aaron Bummer and Chris Sale. They should complement the likes of Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and Charlie Morton. I expect the Braves to be near the top of NL once again.
If any team is capable of ending Atlanta’s streak of winning this division, it’s Philadelphia. I think the Phillies are the third-most talented team in the NL. They have an explosive offense, which includes Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber. If Philadelphia has a weakness, it might be its pitching. However, I think the Phillies have a solid trio in their starting rotation in Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Taijuan Walker. Barring any injuries, this team should be in the mix to win the NL pennant.
Miami has been trending in the right direction for years. We saw that pay off last year, with the Marlins making the playoffs in a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003. They have some terrific, young pitchers in their starting rotation. Miami made some nice additions to its lineup this offseason, too. I also think Skip Schumaker proved himself to be an up-and-coming manager. However, I think Sandy Alcántara starting on the 60-day DL will prevent this team from getting back to the postseason.
The Mets are capable of scoring runs and I expect Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso to be much better than what they were in 2023. The problem that I have with this team is that its pitching leaves a lot to be desired outside of Kodai Senga. The Mets will be relying on José Quintana and Luis Severino to play well, and I think their best days are in the rearview mirror. This team also has a new manager in Carlos Mendoza and I don’t know what to expect. I’ll be surprised if the Mets get back to the playoffs.
Washington has been in a rebuild since winning the World Series in 2019, and hasn’t won more than 71 games since 2021. Granted, the Nationals did exceed expectations a bit last year. I don’t know if Washington improved that much this offseason, despite acquiring some decent bats. As for pitching, the Nationals are getting older at the position, Patrick Corbin hasn’t been the player they thought they were getting, and they don’t have much of a bullpen. This team is likely still a ways from being competitive.
NL Central
| Team | Record | |
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | 90-72 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Reds* | 86-76 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 81-81 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 75-87 |
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | 73-89 |
This is easily the most wide open division in the NL. I’ll give the slight advantage to the Cubs to come out on top. They have enough talent to be a pretty good team, which is part of the reason why they won 83 games last year. The Cubs added some needed depth to their starting rotation by acquiring Shōta Imanaga. The main reason why I like this team, though, is because it hired Craig Counsell to be its new manager. He’s a great manager that can squeeze out more wins from a roster ready to compete.
Cincinnati showed last year that it’s ahead of schedule in its rebuild. This is an ascending team that finished just two games out of the last wild card spot. Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Andrew Abbott are 28 years old or younger, and each came on the scene. I have reservations about the health of starting pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but the Reds should have a great bullpen to help balance that. I like Cincinnati to get back to the postseason.
I expect St. Louis to be much better this year than it was last year, when it finished last in the division for the first time ever. The Cardinals have a good mix of veterans and talented, young players in their lineup. They even added Brandon Crawford to help their offense. However, I’m not convinced that adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn is enough to improve the Cardinals’ pitching, which was a major problem last year. I still have more questions than answers when it comes to St. Louis.
I’m banking on Pittsburgh’s young talent to take a step forward this season. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and Mitch Keller are solid players. Now, it’s time for young players like Oneil Cruz, Ji-hwan Bae, and Luis Ortiz to show improvement. The Pirates have some good veteran leaders to complement their young core, too. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that this team finds a way to finish in the top three spots in this division. I need to see it happen, though, because I don’t like Pittsburgh’s pitching.
I might be too reactive to how the offseason played out for Milwaukee, but it feels like a prime candidate to regress. The Brewers’ pitching, which was a strength, took a hit after trading Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff is starting on the 60-day DL. Milwaukee also lost manager Counsell, who led the team to five postseason appearances in the last six seasons. The Brewers still have some talented players, but I think they’ll struggle to be competitive because every team in this division improved this offseason.
NL West
| Team | Record | |
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 108-54 |
| 2 | Arizona Diamondbacks* | 88-74 |
| 3 | San Diego Padres | 80-82 |
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | 79-83 |
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | 57-105 |
I don’t think any team improved more this offseason than the Dodgers. Not only did they give Ohtani a $700 million contract, but they also acquired Glasnow, Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández, and James Paxton. Don’t forget that the Dodgers already had one of the better rosters in all of baseball, and will start the season with pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Walker Buehler recovering from injuries. If/when they get healthy, I fully expect the Dodgers to make a run at the World Series.
Arizona vastly exceeded expectations last year, winning 84 games and getting to the World Series. It’s hard to tell if the Diamondbacks caught lightning in a bottle, or if that’s the version that we’ll see from them for the foreseeable future. I actually think it’s the latter. Arizona a solid trio of starting pitchers in Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodríguez. The Diamondbacks have a rising star in their lineup in Corbin Carroll, along with some quality bats to complement him. I don’t see this team regressing much at all.
Until I see otherwise, I’m putting San Diego third in this division. It looked like the Padres were an ascending team with a plethora of young talent back in 2020, but they have one postseason appearance in the last three years. San Diego certainly has enough talent to be one of the top teams in the NL, and it added a great pitcher in Dylan Cease this offseason. I just don’t have much trust in this team. The Padres have essentially been a .500 team the last few seasons and I anticipate a similar result in 2024.
I don’t like having San Francisco this low because I really like its pitching. Logan Webb and Alex Cobb are two of the better pitchers in baseball, and the Giants added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Jordan Hicks. I also think Bob Melvin is a good manager, which could lead to more wins for a San Francisco team that was near .500 last year. However, the Giants’ lineup leaves a lot to be desired. This team just doesn’t have much pop at the plate and I don’t know how it’ll be able to score runs.
Alongside Oakland, I think Colorado will be in the running for one of the worst teams in baseball. As always, the Rockies should be able to hit the ball, led by talented, young players in Ezequiel Tovar and Nolan Jones. However, this team had historically bad pitching last year, ranking last in baseball in team ERA (5.67). Colorado acquired Cal Quantrill to help with that, but it won’t be enough to improve the team’s win total that much. This is a difficult division and the Rockies are easily the worst team in it.
2024 World Series
Baltimore vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
In the AL, I’ll go out on a limb and pick Baltimore to get to the World Series for the first time since 1983. The Orioles have done an excellent job of assembling young, talented players the last few years, and most of them are entering their third or fourth year in the majors. Adding Burnes to an already pretty good pitching staff could get Baltimore over the hump in the AL. As for the NL, I have to go with the Dodgers. They have the best collection of talent in baseball, which features four former MVPs in Freddie Freeman, Betts, Kershaw, and Ohtani. The Dodgers are loaded with postseason experience, too. I just don’t think any team in the NL is on the same level as them right now.
The excuses are done for the Dodgers. They’ve had one of the best rosters in baseball, if not the best, for the last few years. The Dodgers were busy in the offseason to add to that roster by acquiring Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Paxton. Their pitching staff ought to be able to tread water until Kershaw, May, Gonsolin, and Buehler are back on the active roster. The Dodgers will have more quality arms than they’ll know what to do with when those pitchers get healthy. They should get plenty of run support from their lineup, and they have a deep farm system. Barring any injuries, I don’t know if any team can stop the Dodgers from winning the World Series this season.
Winner: Dodgers in six
All Things Sports from a Millennial 