“You gonna do somethin’ or just stand there and bleed?”
— Wyatt Earp, “Tombstone” (1993)
The road to the Stanley Cup begins this weekend. Sixteen teams competing for a chance to win one of the most coveted trophies in professional sports, behind arguably the NFL’s Lombardi Trophy. This is always one of the most competitive postseasons in all of sports, and it’s why it’s one of my favorite times of the sports calendar.
In previous years, there was an argument that every team that made the Stanley Cup Playoffs had a shot to win the whole thing. However, I’m not sure that’s the case this year. I think the bracket is a little more top heavy than we’re used to seeing, with maybe just four or five legitimate contenders. Some of those teams are looking to win either their first Stanley Cup ever, or first one in a long time.
The storylines may not seem quite as rich as what we had last year, when Colorado was trying to win back-to-back championships, Tampa Bay was trying to win three championships in four years, and Boston was trying to win it all to cap off a record-breaking regular season. There are still some good ones, though. With four Canadian-based teams in the playoffs, which is the most since 2017, can one of them win a Stanley Cup for the first time since 1993? Can the New York Rangers be the first team to break the Presidents’ Trophy curse since 2013? Can Boston find some redemption after last year’s disappointing exit in the first round?
These next few weeks ought to still give us plenty of entertainment.
First round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
New York Rangers left wing Artemi Panarin (10) skates against the Seattle Kraken during the first period at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
WC2. Washington (91 points; 40-31-11) vs. M1. New York Rangers (114 points; 55-23-4)
I just don’t see Washington winning this series. Excluding the COVID-19-impacted postseasons in 2020 and 2021, in the last 20 years, no team has had a worse goal differential and still made the playoffs than Washington (-37) this year. During that same stretch, only two teams with a negative goal differential made it past the first round. The Capitals will likely have a difficult time scoring on the Rangers, who allow just 2.76 goals per game.
Prediction: Rangers in five
Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns (8) and defenseman Jaccob Slavin (74) look on against the Washington Capitals during the first period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
M3. New York Islanders (94 points; 39-27-16) vs. M2. Carolina (111 points; 52-23-7)
Like Washington, the Islanders have one of the worst goal differentials (-17) among playoff teams in the last 20 years. However, I’d take the Islanders seriously in this series. They’ve played very well the last few weeks — winning 16 of their last 25 games with a goal differential of +11. This ought to be a competitive series, but I’ll still give the advantage to Carolina. The Panthers have a lot more talent, depth, and consistent goaltending.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart (13) reacts after scoring against the Montreal Canadiens during the second period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
WC1. Tampa Bay (98 points; 45-29-8) vs. A1. Florida (110 points; 52-24-6)
I think Tampa Bay is much closer to the end of its championship window rather than the middle. However, I wouldn’t rule out the Lightning in this series. They rank near the top of the league in goals scored (3.51 per game), and have plenty of postseason experience. My concern with Tampa Bay is its goaltending, which has allowed an average of 3.26 goals per game. That’s not a good omen entering the playoffs. I have to pick Florida to win this series.
Prediction: Panthers in six
Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand (63) skates with the puck during the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
A3. Toronto (102 points; 46-26-10) vs. A2. Boston (109 points; 47-20-15)
I think this is a terrible matchup for Toronto. Boston seems to have the Maple Leafs’ number in the postseason — winning three straight series in the first round since 2013. Toronto also hasn’t beaten the Bruins in the regular season since Nov. 2022. This isn’t the best Boston team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I have zero trust in the Maple Leafs. They’ve won just one playoff series since 2005. I expect the Bruins to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Bruins in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) skates against the Buffalo Sabres during the third period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Vegas might be getting Robin Lehner, Mark Stone, and William Carrier from the long-term injury reserve list. That could might not be as helpful as everyone thinks, though. Hockey is dependent on timing and chemistry and Lehner, Stone, and Carrier have been out of the loop for weeks. They might not help the Golden Knights as much as people think. Regardless, I still expect Dallas to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Prediction: Stars in six
Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) warms up before a game against the Calgary Flames at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
Winnipeg has one of the better goalies in hockey in Connor Hellebuyck, which is always beneficial once playoff hockey rolls around. I think Colorado will be a difficult matchup for the Jets, though. The Avalanche boast the league’s best offense — averaging 3.67 goals per game. They’ll likely find the back of the net against Hellebuyck. I don’t trust Winnipeg’s offense, which is one of the worst among playoff teams, to keep up over the course of a series.
Prediction: Avalanche in seven
Western Conference — Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson (40) handles the puck against the Florida Panthers in the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
WC1. Nashville (99 points; 47-30-5) vs. P1. Vancouver (109 points; 50-23-9)
I worry that Nashville relied too much on goalie Juuse Saros in the regular season. He appeared in the most games of any goalie (64), which might be a reason why he had his worst statistical season since he entered the NHL in 2015. If Saros can’t keep pucks out of the back of the net, this will be a short series. Vancouver has a lot of firepower — averaging 3.40 goals per game — and scoring depth. I don’t know how the Predators can pull off the upset.
Prediction: Canucks in five
Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) carries the puck around Detroit Red Wings defensemen Moritz Seider (53) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
P3. Los Angeles (99 points; 44-27-11) vs. P2. Edmonton (104 points; 49-27-6)
This will be a third-straight year that these teams met in the first round. The previous two meetings went at least six games, so this should be a competitive series. I don’t know if Edmonton can make a deep postseason run, but I expect it to advance to the next round. The Oilers will have the best two players on the ice in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Los Angeles just doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Edmonton.
Prediction: Oilers in seven
Second round
Eastern Conference — Metropolitan Division
New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (31) defends the net in the second period against the Ottawa Senators at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
M2. Carolina vs. M1. New York Rangers
The winner of this series will likely represent the East in the Stanley Cup. Even though the Rangers have more star power, I’ll give the slight advantage to Carolina. The Hurricanes are loaded with depth on both ends of the ice. They have 12 different players to score at least 10 goals, and that’s not counting Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov, who were picked up at the trade deadline. The Rangers will have a difficult time defending Carolina’s offensive attack.
Prediction: Hurricanes in seven
Eastern Conference — Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak (88) scores a goal on a slap shot during the third period against the St. Louis Blues at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
A2. Boston vs. A1. Florida
I’m having a difficult time seeing Boston winning this series. The Bruins haven’t played well since the start of February — losing 16 of their last 31 games, with a goal differential of -3. Florida is a younger team that has played better down the stretch, and has more depth. The Panthers also have a reliable goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s allowed just 2.37 goals per game. I doubt Boston can get consistent scoring from anyone besides David Pastrňák.
Prediction: Panthers in seven
Western Conference — Central Division
Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) controls the puck in the second period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
C3. Colorado vs. C1. Dallas
I don’t know just how far Colorado can get this postseason relying mostly on Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and the rest of its offense. I think the Avalanche’s defense will eventually lead to their downfall. They rank in the bottom half of the NHL in goals allowed per game, shots allowed, and save percentage. Dallas should be able to take advantage of that. The Stars have a loaded offense, featuring eight different players to score at least 20 goals.
Prediction: Stars in six
Western Conference — Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks forward J.T. Miller (9) handles the puck against the St. Louis Blues in the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
P2. Edmonton vs. P1. Vancouver
Vancouver is the second-youngest team to make the postseason, and 12th-youngest in the league. The Canucks will likely be a problem for the foreseeable future, but I think their youth will prevent them from making a deep playoff run. While I have concerns about Edmonton’s depth, there are a lot of guys on its roster with postseason experience. We know that the Oilers have McDavid and Draisaitl, but I think they’re better than people think defensively.
Prediction: Oilers in six
Eastern Conference Final
Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) watches the play against the Boston Bruins during the third period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
A1. Florida vs. M2. Carolina
Despite having Sam Reinhart, who scored 57 goals in the regular season, I don’t know if Florida is reliable enough offensively to get back to the Stanley Cup. The Panthers rank No. 11 among playoff teams in goals scored per game. They’re a great defensive team to help combat that, but Carolina is a solid offensive team with several reliable goal scorers. I can’t bring myself to pick against the Hurricanes. I think they’re the most complete team in the East.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six
Western Conference Final
Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz (24) and left wing Jamie Benn (14) celebrates a power play goal scored by center Joe Pavelski (not pictured) against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
P2. Edmonton vs. C1. Dallas
This is a very bad matchup for Edmonton. The Oilers don’t have the same amount of depth as Dallas. I think the Stars will take advantage of Edmonton’s blue line and goaltending, which is far from elite. On the other side, Dallas is excellent defensively. The Stars’ blue line has allowed the seventh fewest shots in the league, and Jake Oettinger has been solid in the net. I think Dallas will be able to prevent McDavid and Draisaitl from taking over this series.
Prediction: Stars in six
2024 Stanley Cup Final
M2. Carolina vs. C1. Dallas
I picked these teams to make it to the Stanley Cup in the preseason and I’m not wavering on that opinion. I think these are the most balanced teams in the NHL. They have scoring depth and quality goaltending. In a series between teams that are pretty much equal, I have to lean on goaltending and special teams. Carolina holds the advantage in both areas. The Hurricanes rank in the top two in the league in both power play percentage and penalty kill percentage. Since Frederik Andersen’s return at the beginning of March, him and Pyotr Kochetkov have a combined GAA of 1.70 and save percentage of 93.3% in the net. I think Carolina is in great position to win its second Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Prediction: Hurricanes in six Conn Smythe winner: Sebastian Aho
The NBA regular season ended over the weekend while I was at my brother’s bachelor party in Cincinnati. I was actually worried that I wouldn’t have enough time to write up this post since I had to travel all day Sunday, but I managed to get it done. Some people might think that this post is coming a little early since the playoffs technically don’t start until Saturday, but my readers ought to know that I consider the NBA’s Play-In Tournament to be part of the league’s postseason. This will be the fifth installment of the Play-In Tournament, so I shouldn’t have to explain how it works at this point.
After a few years of having some semblance of balance, it feels like the league went right back to where it was between 2015-20. I think there are only two or three teams that can legitimately win the championship. I consider every other team to just be along for the ride until I see otherwise. Then again, NBA teams are notorious for not taking the regular season seriously. There’s a good chance that some teams are able to turn it on suddenly and play championship-level basketball now that it’s the postseason. We saw it happen last year with the Lakers and Miami, which were both in the Play-In Tournament and made deep postseason runs.
Even though the league has become so top heavy, I still can’t help but feel nostalgic about this time of year. Some of my fondest memories of my youth came watching the NBA postseason late at night while my semester of school was winding down. I really hope teams step up their game these next few weeks. I enjoy parity and having some unpredictability in playoffs.
Play-In Tournament
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) dribbles up court against the Chicago Bulls during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami (46-36) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia (47-35)
With this game in Philadelphia, I’ll give the advantage to the 76ers. Miami has struggled offensively on the road — ranking No. 21 in offensive efficiency. The Heat are a great defensive team, but I’m not convinced they’ll be able to score on Philadelphia, which has been a great defensive team at home. You have to be able to score points consistently to advance in the postseason. Joel Embiid is also expected to be healthy, which will only benefits the 76ers.
Winner: 76ers
Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan (11) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers forward Dean Wade (32) and center Jarrett Allen (31) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Atlanta (36-46) vs. No. 9 Chicago (39-43)
I don’t know if Atlanta is good enough defensively to get out of the play-in tournament. The Hawks might not even be good enough on that end of the court to win this game. They rank No. 27 in the league in defensive efficiency. Chicago has just enough scoring depth — with four different players averaging at least 18 points per game — to take advantage of that mismatch. I also think the Bulls have the coaching advantage in Billy Donovan.
Winner: Bulls
Miami Heat guard Jimmy Butler (22) attempts a shot against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
No. 9 Chicago vs. No. 8 Miami
I doubt Chicago is a good enough team to win this game. The Bulls don’t have the star power to match up with Miami. They’ve also struggled significantly on the road — winning just 19 of 41 games and ranking No. 23 in defensive efficiency. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Heat, who will have the two best players on the court in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. I also think Miami has the coaching advantage in Erik Spoelstra.
Winner: Heat
Western Conference
New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) dunks the ball against Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the second half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) vs. No. 7 New Orleans (49-33)
In essentially a one-game playoff, I’ll give the advantage to LeBron James. He typically saves his best for the postseason and you’ve seen that the last few weeks. The Lakers have won 20 of their last 30 games, and James averaged 26.3 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans has been one of the top defensive teams throughout the regular season, but I’m not convinced it can guard the Lakers well enough to win this game.
Winner: Lakers
Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) shoots the basketball during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State (46-36) vs. No. 9 Sacramento (46-36)
Even though Golden State has been inconsistent this season, I’ll still pick it to win this game. The Warriors have actually been very good on the road — winning 25 games and ranking in the top five in defensive efficiency. Golden State is also a veteran team, whereas Sacramento is one of the younger teams in the league. When these teams met in the postseason last year, the lack of playoff experience was a disadvantage for the Kings.
Winner: Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) dribbles against the Utah Jazz at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State vs. No. 7 New Orleans
Golden State has just been too inconsistent all season, even showing signs of regression. It feels like this will be the end of the Warriors’ run as one of the top teams in the league, which is why I don’t trust them to get out of the play-in tournament. New Orleans is a good team with an ascending star player in Zion Williamson. The Pelicans also rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency at home, so they should be able to stifle Golden State’s offense.
Winner: Pelicans
First round
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) controls the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Boston (64-18)
I find it highly unlikely that Miami gets the same magic that it had last year, when it won the East as a No. 8 seed. That type of run rarely happens in professional sports, specifically in the NBA. I think the Heat will have a difficult time defending and keeping up with Boston’s offense, which ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency and averages 120.6 points per game. I expect this to be a challenging series for the Celtics, but I think they get it done.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Orlando (47-35) vs. No. 4 Cleveland (48-34)
Orlando has been one of the best stories of the season, but I doubt it’ll win this series. The Magic are a very young team that lacks postseason experience. On the other side, Cleveland has a solid squad that’s led by one of the best players in basketball in Donovan Mitchell. Orlando has also been too inconsistent offensively — ranking last among playoff teams in offensive efficiency. I expect the Cavaliers to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Cavaliers in six
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the game against the Chicago Bulls at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Indiana (47-35) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (49-33)
Milwaukee hasn’t played well in recent weeks. The Bucks have posted a record of 19-20 since firing Adrian Griffin back in January — allowing an abysmal 111.8 points per game during that stretch. This could end up being a favorable matchup for Indiana, which averages 123.1 points per game. However, the Pacers are even worse than Milwaukee defensively. The Bucks also have more talent and postseason experience. I think they squeak out a series victory.
Prediction: Bucks in seven
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) brings the ball up court in the fourth quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Philadelphia vs. No. 2 New York (50-32)
Philadelphia won eight games in a row to end the regular season, so it’s a hot team right now. With a healthy Embiid, the 76ers have a shot of winning this series. I have to pick New York to advance, though. The Knicks have been surging the last few weeks — winning 13 of their last 18 games. Losing Julius Randle hurts, but I think New York has enough depth to overcome his absence. The Knicks should also benefit from having home-court advantage.
Prediction: Knicks in seven
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball down the court against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 New Orleans vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City (57-25)
Despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league, Oklahoma City had its best season since Kevin Durant was with the team. Even though they’re inexperienced, I think the Thunder are a real threat to win the West. They have a star player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with some scoring depth. I don’t see Oklahoma City being one-and-done in this postseason.
Prediction: Thunder in six
LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) dribbles against the Golden State Warriors during the second half of the game at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas (50-32) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)
It’s easy to want to pick the Clippers because they have star players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden. However, the Clippers are a team that I don’t trust in the postseason. They’ve won just three playoff series since 2019. Dallas is arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. The Mavericks have won 16 of their last 20 games. The Clippers also aren’t a great defensive team, so I think they’ll have a difficult time defending Luka Dončić.
Prediction: Mavericks in seven
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) celebrates after making a shot against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix (49-33) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (56-26)
I don’t want to do it, but I’ll give the slight advantage in this series to Phoenix. The Suns arguably have the best scoring trio in the league in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Minnesota has been great defensively, but it’ll have a difficult time defending those three players over the course of a series. I’m not convinced that the Timberwolves have a reliable scorer outside of Anthony Edwards. The organization also hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004.
Prediction: Suns in six
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) passes the ball in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Denver (57-25)
I don’t like picking against James in the postseason, but this is feels like a mismatch for the Lakers. Denver has the MVP frontrunner in Nikola Jokić and plenty of scoring depth, including five other players to average a minimum of 10.1 points per game. The Lakers haven’t played well away from home — winning just 19 games and ranking No. 20 in defensive efficiency. It’ll be incredibly difficult for the Lakers to pull off the upset in this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Second round
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) shoots in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Boston
I don’t know if Cleveland has enough reliable scorers to win this series. Boston will try to limit Mitchell’s production, so Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley will have to step up. They’re good players, but I doubt they can be counted on over the course of a series. The Celtics also have a lot more scoring depth, which will be problematic for the Cavaliers’ defense. Boston should get back to the Eastern Conference Finals for a third-straight year.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts after scoring the game-winning basket in overtime against the Sacramento Kings at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 New York
I don’t have much trust in Milwaukee after the way it ended the regular season. The Bucks haven’t been impressive the last few weeks. I’m not even convinced they’ll get past the first round. I feel like I have to pick New York to win this series. The Knicks are playing well right now and they have depth. I also think New York, which ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, should be able to consistently score points against Milwaukee’s porous defense.
Prediction: Knicks in six
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić (77) celibates after forward Tim Hardaway Jr. (not pictured) makes a three point jump shot against the Orlando Magic during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
Dončić has been on fire the last few weeks — averaging 33.2 points per game since mid-February. He’s going to be a problem for Oklahoma City, but I think it’s up to the task. The Thunder rank No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency, so they should be able to slow down Dončić. I don’t think the Mavericks have enough scoring depth to pull off the upset if that happens. This should be an entertaining series, but I have to give the advantage to Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Thunder in six
Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) dribbles against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix vs. No. 2 Denver
There’s no way that I’m picking Phoenix to get the upset in this series. The Suns are one of the more talented teams in the NBA, but they haven’t been a reliable team since acquiring Durant last year. Eventually, teams have to put talent together and show it can win when it matters. Denver is the significantly better team. The Nuggets are great defensively and have plenty of scoring depth to complement Jokić. I expect Denver to make quick work of Phoenix.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Eastern Conference Finals
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) looks to shoot against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro (35) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 New York vs. No. 1 Boston
There’s plenty of room for optimism around New York, but I don’t see it getting past this point. The Knicks just aren’t as talented as Boston right now. With Randle out for the postseason, New York doesn’t have many reliable scorers outside of Jalen Brunson. It’ll be difficult for the Knicks to keep up with the Celtics over the course of a series. It feels like the East is Boston’s to lose, so I expect it to make its second trip to the NBA Finals in the last three years.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Western Conference Finals
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić (15) controls the ball in the second quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
This feels like a tough matchup for Oklahoma City. While I think the Thunder are a legitimate contender, I think their lack of postseason experience will prevent them from getting to the Finals. The main reason why I’m picking Denver to win this series is because Oklahoma City lacks a dynamic big man to defend Jokić, which makes this series a mismatch. If the Thunder can’t limit Jokić’s production, it might end up being a quick victory for the Nuggets.
Prediction: Nuggets in six
2024 NBA Finals
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Boston
It feels like we’re destined for a matchup between these teams in the Finals. They have the most depth and some of the best players in the game at the top of their rotations. Boston feels like a wagon this year, though. The Celtics average nearly 1.2 points per possession, which is the best in the category in over 20 years. I don’t know if any team will be able to slow down the Celtics’ offense this postseason, which has as many as eight quality scoring options on any given day. Defending Jokić will be a very tall order, but I think this Boston team is much better defensively than it was last year. Everything seems to be lining up for the Celtics to win their 18th championship.
Prediction: Celtics in seven Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
“I don’t like it, I don’t agree with it, but I accept it.”
— Lando Calrissian, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018)
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to players against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Purdue (34-4) vs. No. 1 UConn (36-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: UConn -6.5 Over/under: 145.5
Contrary to what we all thought would happen after the way the conference tournaments played out, this NCAA tournament has been pretty normal. The only double-digit seed to advance past the first weekend (and eventually to the Final Four) was a Power 5 school. That’s partly why we have two No. 1 seeds competing in the national championship for the first time since 2021, and just the third time since 2008. UConn and Purdue have been the most consistent teams in this tournament, combining for an average margin of victory of 22.3 points per game. This has a chance to be an entertaining title game.
North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) knocks the ball away from Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After last year’s embarrassing loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers have gotten the monkey off their back by getting to this point. The biggest difference between this Purdue team and last year’s team is a much improved backcourt. In five tournament games, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones have combined to shoot 40.5% from 3-point territory, and committed just 4.6 turnovers per game and averaged nearly 10 points per game apiece. They do a great job of complementing Zach Edey, who’s considered the best player in the country and has averaged 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the tournament. The Boilermakers have also been excellent defensively in their last five games — allowing only 60.2 points per game and holding teams to shoot just 39.3% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. If Purdue continues to shoot well from 3-point range and collect offensive rebounds, it certainly has a chance to knock off the Huskies.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/Arizona Republic-USA TODAY Sports
The defending national champions have shown no signs of slowing down the last few weeks. The Huskies have won 26 of their last 27 games by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. They’ve been impressive offensively in their last five games — shooting 50.8% from the field, and collecting 12 offensive rebounds per game and committing just eight turnovers per game. Unlike the Boilermakers, UConn’s offense has a very balanced scoring attack. The Huskies have had six different players score at least 10 points in a game in tournament play. UConn has also been just as good, if not better, on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies have allowed only 57.2 points per game, and held opposing teams to shoot just 34.6% from the field and 28.1% from beyond the arc. My only concern with UConn is its 3-point shooting, which has been lukewarm at best recently. When you factor that, it’s even more impressive how the Huskies have been able to win games in the tournament so convincingly.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The deciding factor of this game will likely be which team can win in the paint. Even though the Boilermakers have Edey (7’4″), I’m giving that advantage to UConn. The Huskies have more depth in the post with the trio of Donovan Clingan (7’2″), Alex Karaban (6’8″), and Samson Johnson (6’10”), who’ve combined to tally 26 blocks and 80 rebounds in five tournament games. They’ll be a problem for Edey, who isn’t very athletic. If Edey can’t get going, I don’t know how the Boilermakers win. I doubt their backcourt is good enough to pick up the slack given how well UConn has defended 3-pointers. The Huskies have more talent and scoring depth than Purdue, too. I like that UConn has won games in a variety of different ways despite not shooting well from beyond the arc. That’s a sign of a great team. I also think the Huskies will have a significant coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. It just feels like UConn is destined to be the first team to repeat as national champions since Florida did it in 2006-07.
“We are card counters at the blackjack table and we’re gonna turn the odds on the casino.”
— Billy Beane, “Moneyball” (2011)
Texas Rangers manger Bruce Bochy (15) is presented with the Worlds Series trophy after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks in game five of the 2023 World Series at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to believe that baseball’s Opening Day is already here. I feel like I was just watching the World Series the other day and now we’re on the doorstep of a new season. Now, technically, the regular season started last week when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego played two games in Seoul, South Korea. So, I’m a little late with these predictions, but that shouldn’t count against me. Anyway, this might’ve been the first time in years that we didn’t have any monumental news in the offseason.
That’s right. No significant rule changes, no teams changing names, no lockout that resulted in the season being pushed back, and no pandemic that shortened the regular season by nearly 100 games.
I suppose the only big news was Oakland’s move to Las Vegas being approved by the owners, which was expected. Now, baseball’s expansion to 32 teams is officially on the horizon. That’s a topic for another day, though.
As I’ve been getting my predictions ready, I see more of the same at the top of baseball. There are still only about four or five teams that can legitimately win the World Series. However, there are several teams that I think can compete for the combined six wild card spots. There are still your “usual suspects” that have been wild cards the last few years (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Toronto, etc.). We also saw many teams break through last year and are now ahead of schedule in rebuilds like Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Miami. This might be the most competitive baseball has been for quite some time.
With this much parity, it’ll be exciting to watch this many good teams competing for a select few playoff spots. That just means we’re in for some compelling storylines the next few months.
Seattle Mariners centerfielder Julio Rodríguez (44) celebrates ater hitting an RBI-single during the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports
American League award winners
Award
Winner
MVP
OF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle
Cy Young
SP Framber Valdez, Houston
Rookie of the Year
1B Evan Carter, Texas
Price’s predicted AL award winners
I’ll be bold and pick Rodríguez to win AL MVP. He’s been an ascending player since his rookie season in 2022 — combining for 325 hits, 60 home runs, and 178 RBIs each of the last two seasons. Rodríguez has finished in the top eight in AL MVP voting during that stretch, too. Even though he just signed a big extension, I think Rodríguez’s best baseball is still well ahead of him.
In 2022, Valdez was in the conversation to win AL Cy Young — finishing in the top five of the voting process — after posting a 2.82 ERA with 194 strikeouts. He fell off a bit last year, but not much. Valdez still had an ERA of 3.45 and 200 strikeouts. I expect him to return to 2022 form since he’s entering salary arbitration and will be motivated to get a long-term extension.
I’ll go against the grain and pick Carter to win AL Rookie of the Year. He should benefit after being called up late last year. He played well in 23 regular season games — posting a batting average of .306 and a slugging percentage of .645. Carter also played well in the postseason and helped Texas win its first World Series. I think he could pick up where he left off by having all that experience.
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
AL East
Team
Record
1
Baltimore Orioles
95-67
2
New York Yankees*
90-72
3
Tampa Bay Rays
87-75
4
Toronto Blue Jays
83-79
5
Boston Red Sox
73-89
Price’s AL East projections (* wild card team)
I can’t say enough good things about Baltimore. The Orioles posted a record of 178-368 between 2018-21 and have turned things around the last two seasons, including winning 101 games in 2023. Baltimore is loaded with young talent, specifically Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. The Orioles made big splashes this offseason by acquiring former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and Craig Kimbrel. This team is ready to make a run at a World Series. I don’t expect a drop-off from last year.
The injury to Gerrit Cole will hinder the Yankees to some degree. They still have Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman, but losing last year’s Cy Young award winner will hurt them. However, I still expect the Yankees to be better than what they were last year (82-80). The addition of Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo will give them more pop to their lineup, which struggled to score runs last year. There’s pressure on this Yankees team to play well, at least with Aaron Boone as manager. I think the Yankees will be motivated.
I have some concerns about Tampa Bay entering this season. The Rays traded away Tyler Glasnow, Wander Franco is expected to be removed from the roster, and there are health concerns surrounding pitchers Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan. However, I trust Tampa Bay to be pretty good once again. The Rays have one of the best managers in baseball in Kevin Cash, an up-and-coming pitcher to lead the starting rotation in Zach Eflin, and Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena in the linup.
Unlike Tampa Bay, I don’t have much trust in Toronto anymore. I’ve been burned by the Blue Jays too many times, and last year was a disaster. Several players regressed, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Alek Manoah. Toronto needs to turn things around quickly. Its talented, young core isn’t under club control for much longer and the division is only getting tougher. We’ll see if the Blue Jays can prove me wrong, but I think the ship has sailed on this team.
Boston will likely be the best fifth-place team this season. The Red Sox have a great manager in Alex Cora, and two studs in their lineup in Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida. I even like some of the acquisitions that this team made in the offseason, specifically Liam Hendriks and Lucas Giolito. The problem is that Boston’s starting rotation, bullpen, and farm system still leave a lot to be desired. It’s also going to be incredibly difficult for the Red Sox to be competitive in this gauntlet of a division.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo López (49) pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
AL Central
Team
Record
1
Minnesota Twins
88-74
2
Cleveland Guardians
79-83
3
Detroit Tigers
78-84
4
Kansas City Royals
71-91
5
Chicago White Sox
63-99
Price’s AL Central projections (* wild card team)
This will likely be the weakest division in the AL and I think Minnesota should be considered the favorite to win it. The Twins have won the AL Central three times in the last five seasons. They have a decent starting pitching rotation, led by Pablo López, who collected 234 strikeouts last year. Minnesota has a few quality bats in its lineup, including Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. The main reason why I trust the Twins, though, is Rocco Baldelli, who’s one of the better managers in baseball.
Cleveland lost a Hall of Fame-caliber manager in Terry Francona this offseason, but I still think this team has enough talent to be competitive. The Guardians have the best starting pitching rotation in this division, including breakout star Tanner Bibee and Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Cleveland’s lineup doesn’t have much outside of José Ramírez, which will likely hold this team back from winning the AL Central. I also don’t know what to expect from first-year manager Stephen Vogt.
Detroit finally broke though and showed signs of being competitive last year, winning 78 games for the first time since 2016. The Tigers have some talented young players in Spencer Torkelson, Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Reese Olson. I’m not sure if Detroit will be much better than it was in 2023, though. The Tigers don’t have much depth, Javier Báez hasn’t been the player that they thought they were getting, and I think losing pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez will hurt this team.
Kansas City has finished last in the AL Central in each of the last two seasons. I expect that to change this year, though. The Royals have called up some talented young players in recent years like Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel García, Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Cole Ragans. They also added some veterans to complement their young core. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kansas City finds a way to finish higher in the standings, but I think it’ll be a tall order. The Royals just don’t have much pitching depth.
I don’t think any team has disappointed more in recent years that the White Sox. Their promising young players that we raved about years ago either haven’t lived up to expectations or have regressed. This has caused the organization to trade away some of its better players like Dylan Cease and Giolito. Not to mention the departures of José Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Hendriks. I think it’ll take Yoán Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. to return to form in order for this team to get out of the cellar.
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) hits a two-run home during the ninth inning in game one of the 2023 World Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
AL West
Team
Record
1
Texas Rangers
92-70
2
Houston Astros*
91-71
3
Seattle Mariners*
89-73
4
Los Angeles Angels
72-90
5
Oakland A’s
56-106
Price’s AL West projections (* wild card team)
Texas hasn’t won the AL West since 2016, but I don’t see any reason to think that the defending World Series champion will regress. The Rangers have a slew of ascending players in Adolis García, Josh Jung, Evan Carter, and Leody Taveras. What’s even more impressive about Texas winning the World Series last year is that it did it without Jacob deGrom and with Max Scherzer in a limited role. deGrom and Scherzer should both be healthy to start this season, which will only benefit the Rangers’ pitching.
I don’t like not picking Houston to win this division because it’s won it in six of the last seven seasons. However, I’m not convinced that the Astros are better than Texas right now, and they’re getting a little older. I also don’t know what to expect from first-year manager Joe Espada. Houston is still one of the most talented teams in all of baseball, though. The addition of Josh Hader will really bolster the Astros’ bullpen. This team is still talented and experienced enough to get back to the postseason.
It’s easy to fall for the narrative that Seattle fell off last year, but that’s not the case. The Mariners won 88 games, including winning 43 of their last 73 games. This team is still very talented. Seattle has a great trio of starting pitchers in Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. The Mariners don’t have the best collection of bats in their lineup besides Julio Rodríguez, but the addition of Jorge Polanco should help. I expect this Seattle team to resemble the 2022 team, which won 90 games and made the postseason.
The best chance for the Angels to win a championship with Mike Trout is in the rearview mirror. This team regressed this offseason after losing Ohtani, Chris Devenski, and Hunter Renfroe, and electing to not re-sign C.J. Cron, Mike Moustakas, Jake Lamb, and Gio Urshela. I don’t see the Angels being that competitive this season. Their roster leaves a lot to be desired outside of Trout, and they don’t have much pitching without Ohtani. It feels like the Angels are in the beginning of another rebuild.
Oakland is in the middle of a major rebuild. The A’s haven’t won more than 60 games each of the last two seasons. They ranked in the bottom two in all of baseball in team batting average and ERA last year, and didn’t do much to improve in those areas this offseason. I don’t see any reason to think Oakland might exceed expectations. The good news is that the A’s farm system seems to be improving. For the time being, though, it feels like this team is more focused on its impending move to Las Vegas.
Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Mookie Betts (50) rounds first base after hitting a double in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
National League award winners
Award
Winner
MVP
SS Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Cy Young
SP Zac Gallen, Arizona
Rookie of the Year
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Price’s predicted NL award winners
I don’t know if picking Betts to win NL MVP is a “bold pick.” He won AL MVP when he was in Boston, and Betts finished in the top five in NL MVP voting each of the last two seasons. Him making the change to shortstop from the outfield makes him a bit of a bold pick to win the award, though. Betts was impressive at the position, and hit the ball very well, during Spring Training.
Keep an eye on Gallen when it comes to the NL Cy Young award. He got off to a hot start last year, with an ERA of 2.36 in the middle of May, before cooling off the following months. Despite cooling off, Gallen still finished in the top 10 in the NL in ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts. He’s coming toward the end of his service time, so he’ll also be motivated to get a long-term contract.
Yamamoto is considered a heavy favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year this season. He might be the best player to come out of the Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball league since Shohei Ohtani. In his six seasons in the NPB, Yamamoto was a five-time All-Star and three-time league MVP. He’s going to be a problem for the NL. Don’t rule out Yamamoto for the Cy Young award, either.
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) throws against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
NL East
Team
Record
1
Atlanta Braves
102-60
2
Philadelphia Phillies*
90-72
3
Miami Marlins
76-86
4
New York Mets
74-88
5
Washington Nationals
64-98
Price’s NL East projections (* wild card team)
I don’t know if a team in the NL East is good enough to usurp Atlanta, which has won this division six consecutive seasons. The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball, led by last year’s MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr., along with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies. Atlanta added to its pitching, which was already great, by acquiring Aaron Bummer and Chris Sale. They should complement the likes of Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and Charlie Morton. I expect the Braves to be near the top of NL once again.
If any team is capable of ending Atlanta’s streak of winning this division, it’s Philadelphia. I think the Phillies are the third-most talented team in the NL. They have an explosive offense, which includes Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber. If Philadelphia has a weakness, it might be its pitching. However, I think the Phillies have a solid trio in their starting rotation in Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Taijuan Walker. Barring any injuries, this team should be in the mix to win the NL pennant.
Miami has been trending in the right direction for years. We saw that pay off last year, with the Marlins making the playoffs in a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003. They have some terrific, young pitchers in their starting rotation. Miami made some nice additions to its lineup this offseason, too. I also think Skip Schumaker proved himself to be an up-and-coming manager. However, I think Sandy Alcántara starting on the 60-day DL will prevent this team from getting back to the postseason.
The Mets are capable of scoring runs and I expect Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso to be much better than what they were in 2023. The problem that I have with this team is that its pitching leaves a lot to be desired outside of Kodai Senga. The Mets will be relying on José Quintana and Luis Severino to play well, and I think their best days are in the rearview mirror. This team also has a new manager in Carlos Mendoza and I don’t know what to expect. I’ll be surprised if the Mets get back to the playoffs.
Washington has been in a rebuild since winning the World Series in 2019, and hasn’t won more than 71 games since 2021. Granted, the Nationals did exceed expectations a bit last year. I don’t know if Washington improved that much this offseason, despite acquiring some decent bats. As for pitching, the Nationals are getting older at the position, Patrick Corbin hasn’t been the player they thought they were getting, and they don’t have much of a bullpen. This team is likely still a ways from being competitive.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger (24) is greeted by right fielder Seiya Suzuki (27) after hitting a grand slam home run against the Boston Red Sox during the third inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
NL Central
Team
Record
1
Chicago Cubs
90-72
2
Cincinnati Reds*
86-76
3
St. Louis Cardinals
81-81
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
75-87
5
Milwaukee Brewers
73-89
Price’s NL Central projections (* wild card team)
This is easily the most wide open division in the NL. I’ll give the slight advantage to the Cubs to come out on top. They have enough talent to be a pretty good team, which is part of the reason why they won 83 games last year. The Cubs added some needed depth to their starting rotation by acquiring Shōta Imanaga. The main reason why I like this team, though, is because it hired Craig Counsell to be its new manager. He’s a great manager that can squeeze out more wins from a roster ready to compete.
Cincinnati showed last year that it’s ahead of schedule in its rebuild. This is an ascending team that finished just two games out of the last wild card spot. Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Andrew Abbott are 28 years old or younger, and each came on the scene. I have reservations about the health of starting pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but the Reds should have a great bullpen to help balance that. I like Cincinnati to get back to the postseason.
I expect St. Louis to be much better this year than it was last year, when it finished last in the division for the first time ever. The Cardinals have a good mix of veterans and talented, young players in their lineup. They even added Brandon Crawford to help their offense. However, I’m not convinced that adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn is enough to improve the Cardinals’ pitching, which was a major problem last year. I still have more questions than answers when it comes to St. Louis.
I’m banking on Pittsburgh’s young talent to take a step forward this season. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and Mitch Keller are solid players. Now, it’s time for young players like Oneil Cruz, Ji-hwan Bae, and Luis Ortiz to show improvement. The Pirates have some good veteran leaders to complement their young core, too. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that this team finds a way to finish in the top three spots in this division. I need to see it happen, though, because I don’t like Pittsburgh’s pitching.
I might be too reactive to how the offseason played out for Milwaukee, but it feels like a prime candidate to regress. The Brewers’ pitching, which was a strength, took a hit after trading Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff is starting on the 60-day DL. Milwaukee also lost manager Counsell, who led the team to five postseason appearances in the last six seasons. The Brewers still have some talented players, but I think they’ll struggle to be competitive because every team in this division improved this offseason.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani against the Seattle Mariners during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
NL West
Team
Record
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
108-54
2
Arizona Diamondbacks*
88-74
3
San Diego Padres
80-82
4
San Francisco Giants
79-83
5
Colorado Rockies
57-105
Price’s NL West projections (* wild card team)
I don’t think any team improved more this offseason than the Dodgers. Not only did they give Ohtani a $700 million contract, but they also acquired Glasnow, Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández, and James Paxton. Don’t forget that the Dodgers already had one of the better rosters in all of baseball, and will start the season with pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Walker Buehler recovering from injuries. If/when they get healthy, I fully expect the Dodgers to make a run at the World Series.
Arizona vastly exceeded expectations last year, winning 84 games and getting to the World Series. It’s hard to tell if the Diamondbacks caught lightning in a bottle, or if that’s the version that we’ll see from them for the foreseeable future. I actually think it’s the latter. Arizona a solid trio of starting pitchers in Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodríguez. The Diamondbacks have a rising star in their lineup in Corbin Carroll, along with some quality bats to complement him. I don’t see this team regressing much at all.
Until I see otherwise, I’m putting San Diego third in this division. It looked like the Padres were an ascending team with a plethora of young talent back in 2020, but they have one postseason appearance in the last three years. San Diego certainly has enough talent to be one of the top teams in the NL, and it added a great pitcher in Dylan Cease this offseason. I just don’t have much trust in this team. The Padres have essentially been a .500 team the last few seasons and I anticipate a similar result in 2024.
I don’t like having San Francisco this low because I really like its pitching. Logan Webb and Alex Cobb are two of the better pitchers in baseball, and the Giants added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Jordan Hicks. I also think Bob Melvin is a good manager, which could lead to more wins for a San Francisco team that was near .500 last year. However, the Giants’ lineup leaves a lot to be desired. This team just doesn’t have much pop at the plate and I don’t know how it’ll be able to score runs.
Alongside Oakland, I think Colorado will be in the running for one of the worst teams in baseball. As always, the Rockies should be able to hit the ball, led by talented, young players in Ezequiel Tovar and Nolan Jones. However, this team had historically bad pitching last year, ranking last in baseball in team ERA (5.67). Colorado acquired Cal Quantrill to help with that, but it won’t be enough to improve the team’s win total that much. This is a difficult division and the Rockies are easily the worst team in it.
2024 World Series
Baltimore vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
In the AL, I’ll go out on a limb and pick Baltimore to get to the World Series for the first time since 1983. The Orioles have done an excellent job of assembling young, talented players the last few years, and most of them are entering their third or fourth year in the majors. Adding Burnes to an already pretty good pitching staff could get Baltimore over the hump in the AL. As for the NL, I have to go with the Dodgers. They have the best collection of talent in baseball, which features four former MVPs in Freddie Freeman, Betts, Kershaw, and Ohtani. The Dodgers are loaded with postseason experience, too. I just don’t think any team in the NL is on the same level as them right now.
Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) runs after hitting a double against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The excuses are done for the Dodgers. They’ve had one of the best rosters in baseball, if not the best, for the last few years. The Dodgers were busy in the offseason to add to that roster by acquiring Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Paxton. Their pitching staff ought to be able to tread water until Kershaw, May, Gonsolin, and Buehler are back on the active roster. The Dodgers will have more quality arms than they’ll know what to do with when those pitchers get healthy. They should get plenty of run support from their lineup, and they have a deep farm system. Barring any injuries, I don’t know if any team can stop the Dodgers from winning the World Series this season.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
“I don’t scratch my head unless it itches and I don’t dance unless I hear some music. I will not be intimidated. That’s just the way it is.”
— Herman Boone, “Remember the Titans” (2000)
It’s hard to believe that the NFL postseason is here. My brain still thinks that October was just a week or two ago. I’m excited for the playoffs because not only did my team make the cut, but it’s a no-lose situation for Green Bay. The Packers made the playoffs despite having the youngest roster in the NFL and a first-year starting quarterback. It doesn’t matter if they lose by 40 in the wild card round or win the Super Bowl, the team will still be in a great spot.
This postseason has a chance to get crazy. I’ve been under the impression that this season is similar to the 2021 season, when not many teams looked great and we ended up with two teams with combined records of just 22-12 in the Super Bowl. The biggest difference between this season and the 2021 season is that there seems to be a huge drop-off after the No. 1 seed in each conference (Baltimore and San Francisco) as opposed to 2021. I wouldn’t just pencil the Ravens and 49ers in the Super Bowl, though. Both No. 1 seeds in each conference have met in the Super Bowl just 13 times since 1975.
There are a lot of compelling storylines as we enter the playoffs, too. Between two of the youngest teams in the NFL making the postseason (Green Bay and Houston), Matthew Stafford and Tyreek Hill playing their former teams in the wild card round, and the potential for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to meet in the playoffs for a third time since 2020, along with Joe Flacco possibly playing his former team in the Divisional Round. There will be a lot to talk about these next few weeks.
Super Wild Card Weekend
AFC:
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) celebrates after making a tackle during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
I want to pick Houston. I think the Texans have the better head coach/quarterback combination in this matchup, along with home-field advantage. The line is also ticking in Houston’s favor, which isn’t insignificant. However, Cleveland has a major advantage in the trenches. The Browns have also played well with Joe Flacco at quarterback.
Prediction: Browns 24, Texans 21
Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon (1) celebrates with quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring a touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Miami (11-6) at No. 3 Kansas City (11-6) GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, Mo. Line: Chiefs -4.5 Over/under: 43.5
I have just a little more trust in Kansas City in this matchup. Miami is too banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins don’t have much of a pass rush anymore, which likely isn’t going to bode well before playing Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid is also a much better head coach than Mike McDaniel. With this game in Arrowhead, I have to pick the Chiefs.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 17
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs the ball in for a touch down in the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Pittsburgh (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo (11-6) Highmark Stadium Orchard Park, N.Y. Line: Bills -10 Over/under: 35.5
I have a difficult time seeing Pittsburgh winning this game, especially without T.J. Watt. The Steelers have played much better offensively since starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but I still don’t trust their offense. Buffalo’s defense has been excellent at home all season — allowing just 14.7 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. I expect the Bills to get the win.
Prediction: Bills 23, Steelers 16
NFC:
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) celebrate a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Philadelphia (11-6) at No. 4 Tampa Bay (9-8) Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Fla. Line: Eagles -3 Over/under: 43.5
I don’t have any trust in Philadelphia right now. The Eagles haven’t only lost five of their last six games, but they’ve looked like one of the worst teams in the league during that stretch. I’m not confident in it at all, but I’ll pick Tampa Bay to win this game. The Buccaneers have played well defensively in their last six games — allowing just 16.3 points per game and 4.9 yards per play.
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Eagles 17
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell congratulates tight end Sam LaPorta (87) after LaPorta caught a touchdown pass against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at No. 3 Detroit (12-5) Ford Field Detroit Line: Lions -3 Over/under: 51.5
I think Detroit is catching the Rams at the wrong time. The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the NFL in their last eight games (excluding Week 18) — averaging 29.2 points per game, 6.1 yards per play, and 141.7 rushing yards per game (4.7 yards per carry). The Lions’ defense, which has struggled at times, will have a difficult time defending the Rams’ offense.
Prediction: Rams 31, Lions 24
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) reacts during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Green Bay (9-8) at No. 2 Dallas (12-5) AT&T Stadium Arlington, Texas Line: Cowboys -7 Over/under: 50.5
I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out Green Bay. I actually think this is a more favorable matchup for the Packers than people think. Aaron Jones could run up and down Dallas’ defense, and Green Bay’s offense has been excellent against the blitz recently. I don’t trust the Packers’ defense, though. The Cowboys have more playoff experience, so they’re better equipped to win this game.
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Packers 27
Divisional Round
AFC:
Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) celebrates a touchdown with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Cleveland at No. 1 Baltimore (13-4)
I just don’t think this Cleveland team is capable of winning more than one playoff game. Joe Flacco has been a great story, but Baltimore should win this game. The Ravens have been excellent at home, with a +134 point differential. I doubt the Browns’ offense will be able to score enough points to win on Baltimore’s defense, which ranks No. 1 in points allowed per game.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 13
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid (center) looks on ahead of quarterback Patrick Mahomes (second from right) and tight end Travis Kelce (right) during the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Kansas City at No. 2 Buffalo
This would be the first road playoff game for Mahomes, and I don’t know what to expect. The Chiefs’ offense has struggled away from home — averaging just 20.8 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. I also don’t trust Kansas City because it’s been off all season. I doubt the Chiefs can turn things around in time for the postseason. I think the Bills advance to the next round.
Prediction: Bills 24, Chiefs 20
NFC:
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates after scoring during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams at No. 1 San Francisco (12-5)
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams go on a deep postseason run, but this will be a difficult matchup for them. San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the NFL — allowing just 19.1 points per game and 4.9 yards per play at home. The 49ers have also been so good this season. I just don’t see them being one-and-done in the playoffs, especially with a week to rest up.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) catches a pass for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Tampa Bay at No. 2 Dallas
Barring any injuries, I don’t see Tampa Bay winning two playoff games. The Buccaneers aren’t good enough offensively, and Baker Mayfield might be injured. They’ll have a difficult time moving the ball on Dallas’ defense, which has one of the best pass rushes in the league. I have more trust in Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott, so I expect the Cowboys to win comfortably.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 17
Championship Sunday
AFC Championship:
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) celebrates with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Buffalo at No. 1 Baltimore
I’m not convinced that Buffalo is consistent enough offensively to win the AFC. The Bills didn’t play that well to end the regular season — averaging just 24 points per game and 5.5 yards per play in their last three games. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off Baltimore. The Ravens have the MVP front-runner in Lamar Jackson and the best statistical defense in the league.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 21
NFC Championship:
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates with San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Chris Conley (84) after a play during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Dallas at No. 1 San Francisco
I expect this game to be much different than when these teams played in the regular season. I still think San Francisco will win, though. The 49ers’ offense is balanced enough to neutralize Dallas’ pass rush. The Cowboys have struggled against the run and San Francisco runs the ball very well — averaging 140.5 yards per game on the ground (4.8 yards per carry).
Prediction: 49ers 31, Cowboys 20
Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco vs. Baltimore
Turnovers were a big reason why Baltimore won the game between these teams in the regular season. I find it unlikely that the Ravens will be able to force five turnovers once again. Baltimore’s defense has also been vulnerable against the run, so I expect San Francisco to lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey and its run game. I think the 49ers win their sixth championship.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Ravens 23 Super Bowl MVP: Christian McCaffrey
2023 World Series Arizona (84-78) vs. Texas (90-72) Odds: Rangers -174
For someone that hadn’t really watched the MLB postseason (mostly due to watching football games instead), I’m looking forward to this World Series matchup. Not many people predicted Texas and Arizona to make the playoffs in the preseason (myself included). Both teams are way ahead in their competitive cycles, and now have a chance to win it all. This is also the first time since 2014 that two wild card teams will compete in the World Series. This should be very exciting.
Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) reacts after hitting a double in the third inning during game three of the NLCS for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to believe that Arizona has made it to this point so quickly. The Diamondbacks were supposed to be entering a rebuild that would take years for them to get back to being competitive after moving on from players like Patrick Corbin, Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Paul Goldschmidt. Remember, Arizona lost 110 games back during the 2021 season. This organization has done an excellent job putting this roster together. Now, the Diamondbacks are just four wins away from winning their second World Series title.
Arizona has done a great job of scoring runs in the postseason despite not hitting the ball well. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has a batting average of .247 with only 18 home runs. Aggressive base running is the main reason why Arizona is in this position. The Diamondbacks have 16 stolen bases, which is tied for the most among playoff teams. Arizona also has had quality pitching from starters Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt, and from relievers Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, Paul Sewald, and Luis Frías. It’ll be difficult to score on this team after the sixth inning.
Even though I just praised the pitching of the Diamondbacks, it might also be my biggest concern. Arizona doesn’t have much depth in its starting rotation outside of Kelly, Pfaadt, and Zac Gallen. Having a great bullpen is one of the keys to winning a World Series. The Diamondbacks might be relying on their bullpen too much, though. Arizona needs better outings from Gallen, who’s considered its ace, to give it the best chance of winning this series.
Texas Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia (53) reacts after hitting a solo home run during the second inning in game four of the ALCS against the Houston Astros for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Like Arizona, Texas lost over 100 games back in 2021 and has been slowly trending in the right direction since then. The Rangers have spent money in recent years to acquire quality veterans in Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager. They’ve also developed their young prospects, and made good trades to acquire Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery. Hiring Bruce Bochy, who won three World Series when he was San Francisco’s manager from 2007-19, was a great decision, too. Texas is now in a great position to win its first championship in the organization’s history.
The Rangers have made it to this point mostly because of their offense – averaging 5.9 runs per game in 12 postseason games. Adolis García and Seager have been the driving force of Texas’ offense. Those two players have a combined for a batting average of .329, 10 home runs, and 26 RBIs. Arizona’s pitching is going to have a difficult time slowing down the middle of the Rangers’ lineup. Texas has also had great production from its pitching, with Eovaldi, Montgomery, Cody Bradford, Martín Pérez, Josh Sborz, and Aroldis Chapman having ERAs under 3.00.
My concern with the Rangers is where their offensive production is going to come if García and Seager’s bats cool off. Josh Jung and Evan Carter have hit the ball pretty well this postseason, but they have half the amount of combined RBIs (13) as García and Seager. Plus, Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim, and Leody Tavares are each hitting below .250. Texas is likely going to need García and Seager to stay hot to give it the best chance of winning this series.
I do get “team of destiny” vibes from Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been underdogs in each of their postseason series. I don’t want to pick against them, but I’m giving the advantage to Texas in this series. The Rangers are playing excellent baseball, both offensively and defensively. I also think they control almost every advantage in this matchup.
I’m just not convinced that Arizona’s style of play is sustainable to win the World Series. The Diamondbacks haven’t had enough offensive production outside of Marte. They’ll also have a difficult time winning this series if Gallen doesn’t find the stuff he had from the first half of the regular season. Texas’ bats have been hot this postseason. I think the Rangers will be able to get after Arizona’s starting rotation and wear down its bullpen over the course of this series.
The Diamondbacks have been a great story, but there’s a reason why they were only six games above .500 in the regular season. I think they have too much youth and their luck is going to eventually end. Texas is the more veteran team and it has one of the best managers in MLB history in Bochy. I think the Rangers win their first World Series.
Prediction: Rangers in six World Series MVP: Adolis García
Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone kisses the Larry O’Brien Trophy after winning the 2023 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The NBA regular season is upon us, after what was a relatively quiet offseason for the league. That’s something that I haven’t witnessed in over a decade. Before the recent Damian Lillard and Jrue Holliday trades, the biggest acquisition made this offseason was arguably Memphis trading for Marcus Smart. Outside of acquisitions, the biggest story was probably James Harden and his drama with Philadelphia.
Think about it, it feels like there’s always a big name to join a new team in recent years. We eventually got it with the Lillard trade, but it came in at the 11th hour of the offseason. That’s just something we’re not familiar with as NBA fans.
My outlook for this season is that the league is still very balanced. The days of teams having a “Big 3” comprised of super stars are in the rearview mirror. The best teams in the NBA currently have two star players and a bunch of quality role players. I’m not used to seeing so much parity in this league. That’s why I think as many as six or seven teams can legitimately win the championship, as opposed to just two or three a few seasons ago.
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dunks in the third quarter of their game against the Washington Wizards at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Major award winners predictions
Award
Winner
Most Valuable Player
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
Defensive Player of the Year
Evan Mobley, Cleveland
Sixth Man of the Year
Immanuel Quickley, New York
Rookie of the Year
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio
Price’s predicted major award winners
Antetokounmpo seems poised to have an MVP-caliber season. He’s arguably the best player in the NBA and has battled injuries each of the last two seasons. I also think having a new head coach in Milwaukee will allow Antetokounmpo to have more of an impact. Mobley is a good bet to win Defensive Player of the Year. He’s improved as a defender each year he’s been a pro, including being named to the first-team All-Defensive Team last season.
Quickley is one of the best players to come off the bench. He’s also improved as a player every season, improving his scoring to 14.9 points per game last season. Quickley is going to get a lot of recognition because he plays in New York, which is why I think he has a great chance to win the Sixth Man of the Year. I’m going chalk by picking Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year. He was regarded as one of the best prospects to come through the draft in recent years. With Gregg Poppvich as Wembanyama’s head coach, there’s no telling just how much of an impact he’ll have as a rookie.
Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) dribbles while defended by Oklahoma City Thunder forward Ousmane Dieng (13) during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
I think the East comes down to two teams: Boston and Milwaukee. They have the most collection of talent in the conference. I’m going to give the slight advantage to the Bucks, though. The addition of Lillard is huge and it gives Milwaukee two reliable scorers every game. It also pushes Khris Middleton down to the No. 3 scorer, which might be a better spot for him. As I mentioned before, I also think the Bucks having a new head coach is going to unleash a side of Antetokounmpo that we haven’t seen since he won MVP in 2020.
I don’t know what to expect from Boston. The Celtics are certainly talented enough to win it all, but they shook up their roster by moving on from Marcus Smart and Robert Williams, and acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Holliday. Boston should still finish in the top three in the East, though. I’m expecting Cleveland to improve with a full offseason of Donovan Mitchell working with the young players on the Cavaliers’ roster. I’m not going to count out Miami, either. The Heat won the East last year and have a great duo in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. A lot of things went their way last postseason, though, and they lost some quality role players this offseason.
I think the days of Philadelphia being one of the top teams in the East are in the rearview mirror. The 76ers have their hands full with Harden, who I’m not convinced will finish the season with the team, and they have a new head coach. New York is one of the better teams in the East. The Knicks have a nice trio in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and R.J. Barrett, along with a decent head coach in Tom Thibodeau. Atlanta should be the best team outside of the top six solely because of Trae Young. Indiana should improve from last year, especially if Tyrese Haliburton plays more than 56 games.
The last two spots of the play-in tournament will be a log jam between Brooklyn, Chicago, Orlando, and Toronto. I’m giving the Nets and Bulls the edge because those teams have a little more talent on their rosters. The Magic have some nice young players, but I need to see it make the playoffs first. There’s a decent chance that the Raptors trade away their best players before the deadline. Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington will likely round out the East. I doubt the Hornets have enough scoring outside of LaMelo Ball. The Pistons are still likely a year away from competing. The Wizards are entering a rebuild after trading Bradley Beal and Porzingis.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokič (15) against Phoenix Suns forward Chimezie Metu (4) during a preseason game at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Western Conference
Team
Record
1
Denver Nuggets
53-29
2
Phoenix Suns
52-30
3
Los Angeles Lakers
50-32
4
Sacramento Kings
49-33
5
Golden State Warriors
46-36
6
Los Angeles Clippers
45-37
7
Memphis Grizzlies*
44-38
8
Oklahoma City Thunder*
43-39
9
Minnesota Timberwolves*
42-40
10
New Orleans Pelicans*
41-41
11
Dallas Mavericks
40-42
12
Utah Jazz
36-46
13
Houston Rockets
32-50
14
San Antonio Spurs
31-51
15
Portland Trail Blazers
25-57
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)
The West is loaded with quality teams. There are probably 11 teams good enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are only 10 spots (if you count the play-in tournament). The team I like to finish No. 1 in the standings is the defending champions. Denver has one of the best players in the game in Nikola Jokič, who’s won MVP two of the last three seasons. The Nuggets also didn’t lose many of their other key role players, either. I think the organization is in the middle of a special point in its history.
The second-best team in the West is arguably Phoenix, even though it moved on from Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Suns still have two of the best players in the NBA in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, and they traded for Beal. I also think, similar to Milwaukee, hiring a new head coach could make Phoenix better. Another team that I like is the Lakers. Remember, they got to the Western Conference Finals last year. I think they finally have a quality team to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I wanted to put Sacramento higher in my standings. The Kings have a nice young core, led by DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. I just like the other teams a little more.
I’m not going to count out Golden State as a championship contender. I just think the Warriors are aging, and the 2022 season feels like an outlier. I can’t bring myself to quit on the Clippers. They have a veteran roster, featuring Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. It’s going to be difficult for Memphis to finish in the top six in the West with Ja Morant suspended for 25 games. The Grizzlies are still a young, talented team that should find a way to make the postseason. Oklahoma City has been trending in the right direction in recent seasons. The Thunder have put together a solid young core and I think they’ll be a playoff team.
With Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota should be good enough to at least appear in the play-in tournament. I doubt the Timberwolves can finish in the top six spots, though. New Orleans has the potential to finish higher in the standings. It comes down to if Zion Williamson can stay healthy, which he hasn’t been able to do. I think Dallas is closer to the team that we saw in 2022, but I don’t trust Kyrie Irving. I have a difficult time seeing Utah competing for a playoff spot. Houston still has a ways to go, even though it should be improved under new head coach Ime Udoka. It’s rare for a rookie to immediately dominate the NBA, but I’m curious to see how Wembanyama performs for San Antonio. I don’t expect Portland to be that competitive after moving on from Lillard.
2024 NBA Finals
Denver vs. Milwaukee
Thesefeel like the best teams with the fewest question marks in both conferences. Denver and Milwaukee have two of the top five players in the game in Jokič and Antetokounmpo. They also have plenty of scoring depth, including quality secondary options in Lillard and Jamal Murray. If they manage to get home-court advantage, I have a difficult time seeing either of them not representing their conferences in the Finals.
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers during game two of the Western Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The team I like to win it all is the Nuggets. As I mentioned earlier, I think they’re in the middle of something special. Jokič and Murray are one of the best duos in the league, and both are starting to enter their primes. I also think Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are solid depth players. I don’t see any reason to think Denver will fall off this season.
“You think you can win on talent alone? Gentlemen, you don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone.”
– Herb Brooks, “Miracle” (2004)
Vegas Golden Knights forward Jonathan Marchessault (81) hoists the Stanley Cup after defeating the Florida Panthers in game five of the 2023 Stanley Cup Final at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
I’ll be honest, between the way last season ended for my Boston Bruins and with both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí retiring this offseason, I can’t say that I’ve been too thrilled about the start of a new NHL season. So, this season has snuck up on me. I’ve been rushing to get my predictions done in the last 24 hours. It also doesn’t help that I had surgery last week, which knocked me out for a few days. I feel like I’m back in school trying to rush a homework assignment.
The NHL regular season is set to begin Tuesday night, with a triple-header featuring Nashville at Tampa Bay, Chicago at Pittsburgh, and Seattle at Vegas.
Last year was a historic season for the league. Boston broke the single-season record for wins (65) and points (135). You also had a team in just its sixth year as a hockey organization in Vegas win the Stanley Cup, becoming the fastest expansion team to win the trophy.
When I look at the NHL landscape heading into this season, I think it’s pretty wide open. That’s typical of hockey because it’s the sport with the most parity, but it’s still a good way to describe the upcoming season. Some of the usual contenders, like Boston and Tampa Bay, lost some their top players this offseason. There’s also uncertainty surrounding Colorado after the injury to Gabriel Landeskog last year. It’s also hard for me to trust some of the Canadian teams like Toronto and Edmonton because they haven’t given me a reason to trust them in the playoffs.
I think we’re witnessing a changing of the guard when it comes to the Stanley Cup contenders. I look forward to seeing how it shakes out this season.
Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) carries the puck around Vancouver Canucks defensemen Quinn Hughes (43) during the first period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Major award winners predictions
Award
Winner
Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP)
Connor McDavid, Edmonton
Vezina Trophy (best goalie)
Jake Oettinger, Dallas
James Norris Memorial Trophy (best defenseman)
Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo
Calder Memorial Trophy (rookie of the year)
Connor Bedard, Chicago
Art Ross Trophy (player who leads the NHL in points)
Connor McDavid, Edmonton
Price’s predicted major award winners
Picking McDavid to win the Hart Trophy almost shouldn’t be allowed. It’s a chalk pick, but I’m just not convinced anyone can outperform him. McDavid is currently the best player in hockey and he’s scored at least 30 goals and accumulated a minimum of 100 points in six of the last seven seasons. The only time he didn’t eclipse 100 points came in the shortened 2019-20 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s why I’m also picking McDavid to win the Art Ross Trophy, which is given to the player who leads the league in points. He’s always a safe pick for the two awards.
I’m picking Oettinger to win the Vezina Trophy because he’s a young guy with his best hockey still ahead of him. He’s also posted a GAA of 2.42 and a save percentage of 91.6% each of his first three seasons in the NHL. That’s good enough to win the Vezina in any given season. Dahlin is an ascending defenseman, who tallied 73 points and averaged 25 minutes of time on the ice last year. I think he’s poised to have a breakout season, which is why I’m picking him to win the Norris Trophy. Everyone is going to pick Bedard to win the Calder Trophy. He’s regarded as one of the best prospects to come through the NHL draft in recent years. Bedard is also going to get plenty of scoring opportunities in Chicago, too, which should put him in the driver’s seat to be one of the top rookies in hockey.
Eastern Conference
Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) goes to pass the puck against the Ottawa Senators during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Atlantic Division
Team
Points
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
113
2
Boston Bruins
101
3
Florida Panthers
99
4
Buffalo Sabres*
95
5
Tampa Bay Lightning
88
6
Ottawa Senators
83
7
Detroit Red Wings
76
8
Montréal Canadiens
68
Price’s Atlantic Division projections (top three teams make playoffs; * wild card team)
After years of being behind Boston and Tampa Bay, it feels like this year is Toronto’s time to win this division. The Maple Leafs are going to have one of the best offenses in hockey with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares as their top goal scorers. Toronto also improved its offense by signing Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and Ryan Reaves. Ilya Samsanov proved to be a capable starting goalie last season, too — allowing just 2.33 goals per game and posting a save percentage of 91.9%.
Boston is a prime regression candidate this season. The Bruins aren’t going to replicate the success they had last year, but they’re still a talented team. Boston has just enough scoring in David Pastrnák, Brad Marchand, and Jake DeBrusk. The Bruins also have the best goalie duo in hockey with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. I expect Florida’s success in the postseason, which took it to the Stanley Cup Final as a wild card, to carry over to this season. The Panthers have a pretty good roster that gelled together well at the end of last season. I see no reason to think they’ll regress.
The team that I have circled to take a step forward in this division is Buffalo. The Sabres are a young, ascending team that has improved its win total each of the last two seasons. They also improved their defense by signing Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton this offseason. Tampa Bay’s roster has taken a hit after losing several players that helped the team win the Stanley Cup twice from 2019-22. The Lightning now have a top-heavy roster, which showed signs of aging last year, and their No. 1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is going to miss a significant amount of time due to injury. Too many things are going against Tampa Bay.
I consider Ottawa and Detroit to be in the same boat. Both teams are young and played well at times last year. They also made some nice moves this offseason. The problem is that this is the toughest division in hockey. I need to see either team close the gap in this division before I believe that either of them will do so. I’ll be very surprised if Montréal doesn’t finish last in this division. The Canadiens are assembling a nice core with Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Jordan Harris. They’re still a few years from being competitive, though.
Carolina Hurricanes left wing Michael Bunting (58) skates with the puck against the Florida Panthers during the third period at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
Metropolitan Division
Team
Points
1
Carolina Hurricanes
111
2
New Jersey Devils
109
3
New York Rangers
105
4
Pittsburgh Penguins*
97
5
New York Islanders
86
6
Columbus Blue Jackets
83
7
Washington Capitals
81
8
Philadelphia Flyers
70
Price’s Metropolitan Division projections (top three teams make playoffs; * wild card team)
Until I see otherwise, I think this division is Carolina’s to lose. The Hurricanes are a young team with one of the deepest rosters in the NHL, which features 12 different players that scored at least 10 goals last season. Carolina also added to its lineup this offseason by signing Michael Bunting, who’s scored 23 goals each of the last two seasons, and proven veterans in Dmitry Orlov and Tony DeAngelo. This team has always been close to putting together a special season, and it feels like it could happen this year.
New Jersey had one of the youngest teams in the NHL last year and still managed to exceed expectations. The Devils won 52 games and finished tied for fourth in goal differential. I expect New Jersey’s young core to only improve as it develops together. The Rangers might’ve had the most productive offseason — signing proven veterans in Blake Wheeler, Nick Bonino, Erik Gustafsson, and Jonathan Quick. Adding those players should mix well with the young core of the Rangers, who should be considered one of the top teams in the East.
Pittsburgh missed the postseason last year for just the second time since 2010. I expect the Penguins to get back, though, after the signings they made this offseason. Adding Erik Karlsson, Reilly Smith, Noel Acciari, Matt Nieto, and Lars Eller will give this team some much-needed depth. I wasn’t a fan of the way the Islanders handled the offseason. They didn’t make any notable acquisitions. However, I think the Islanders still have enough talent on their roster to fight for a wild card spot. I’m just not convinced it’ll be enough to get the Islanders back to the postseason for a second-straight year.
Columbus is another young team trending in the right direction. I actually came close to picking the Blue Jackets to finish higher in this division. I need to see it happen first, though. There’s not much to like about Washington’s roster outside of Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie. I think the Capitals will struggle score enough goals to win games like last year. Philadelphia is entering rebuild mode after moving on from David Kaše, James van Riemsdyk, Brendan Lemieux, and DeAngelo this offseason. I’ll be surprised if the Flyers find a way to be competitive.
Western Conference
Dallas Stars center Logan Stankoven (11) in action during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Minnesota Wild at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Central Division
Team
Points
1
Dallas Stars
108
2
Colorado Avalanche
107
3
Minnesota Wild
98
4
Nashville Predators*
95
5
Winnipeg Jets
88
6
St. Louis Blues
84
7
Arizona Coyotes
75
8
Chicago Blackhawks
71
Price’s Central Division projections (top three teams make playoffs; * wild card team)
With the injuries to Landeskog and Cale Makar for Colorado, I’m going to pick Dallas to win this division. The Stars have one of the better rosters in the NHL. They had six different players score at least 21 goals last season in Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, Tyler Seguin, and Wyatt Johnston. Dallas also might’ve made one of the more underrated moves of the offseason by signing Matt Duchene, who has over 300 career goals. With Oettinger in the net, I expect the Stars to be near the top of the league.
Colorado signed quality players this offseason in Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Johansen, Miles Wood, and Ross Colton. Having those players will help the Avalanche take pressure off Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. I just think the injuries to Landeskog and Makar will be too difficult for this team to overcome. Minnesota didn’t do much to improve its roster this offseason, but it’s established a winning culture in recent seasons. I also think the Wild are the best team that’s not Colorado or Dallas in this division.
Even though Nashville moved on from Duchene, I still consider it to be a playoff team. The Predators have one of the best defenses in the NHL, led by goalie Juuse Saros. They also added to their roster by signing Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyquist, Denis Gurianov, and Luke Schenn this offseason. St. Louis was a seller at the trade deadline last season, but I wouldn’t count this team out. The Blues have a competent front office. However, I have a difficult time seeing them being that competitive after moving on from some of their best players.
I doubt Winnipeg is going to be able to sneak into the postseason like it did last year. The Jets don’t have much talent on their roster outside of goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Arizona is a dysfunctional organization, but I actually think it’s on the upswing. The Coyotes have some talented, young offensive players, and spent a lot of money on their blue line this offseason. You never know what kind of an impact a prospect as highly regarded as Bedard is going to have on a team. I still think Chicago is a few years away from potentially being competitive, though.
Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (29) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Calgary Flames during the second period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Pacific Division
Team
Points
1
Edmonton Oilers
109
2
Vegas Golden Knights
107
3
Los Angeles Kings
97
4
Calgary Flames*
96
5
Seattle Kraken
90
6
Vancouver Canucks
86
7
Anaheim Ducks
73
8
San Jose Sharks
65
Price’s Pacific Division projections (top three teams make playoffs; * wild card team)
It’s hard to pick against Edmonton in this division. The Oilers have two of the top players in the league in McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Those two players have combined for 215 goals and 514 points the last two seasons. I still have my reservations about Edmonton’s roster outside of those players, though. As long as McDavid and Draisaitl are healthy, the Oilers are going to finish near the top of the standings. I do think Edmonton added two quality depth players this offseason in Connor Brown and Lane Pederson.
The defending champions, Vegas, didn’t do much to improve its roster this offseason. The Golden Knights return a lot of their chemistry and production that helped them win the Stanley Cup, though. I expect them to have another successful season. Los Angeles added proven veterans in forward Pierre-Luc Dubois and goalie Cam Talbot. That’s going to be beneficial because the Kings are returning the bulk of their core, which had 11 different players score at least 10 goals last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Los Angeles ends up finishing higher in this division.
Calgary was one of the biggest disappointments last season. I believe that the Flames are closer to the 2021-22 team that won 50 games and finished near the top of the league in goal differential, though, than the team we got last year. With the addition of Yegor Sharangovich, I expect Calgary to be a playoff team again. Seattle proved to be ahead of schedule in competitiveness last year, but progress isn’t always linear. That’s why I think the Kraken take a slight step back this season. I need a see the newest NHL organization get to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons before I believe it can.
Vancouver is good enough to be a playoff team. The Canucks have three quality goal scorers in Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko, and J.T. Miller. I need to see them be consistent in the regular season, though. Anaheim has a young core in Leo Carlsson, Trevor Zegras, and Mason McTavish. We’ll see if a new head coach can help the young Ducks take the next step. I think San Jose’s rebuild is just getting started. I also expect the Sharks to move on from some of the better players on their roster this season, which means they likely won’t be very competitive.
2024 Stanley Cup Final
Dallas vs. Carolina
When I look at the most complete teams in both conferences, I keep coming back to Carolina and Dallas. Both teams have multiple lines capable of scoring goals, along with star power at the top of their lineups. They also have quality goaltending, and even added to their depth this offseason. That will be beneficial once the postseason rolls around.
Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) pushes the puck up the ice against the Florida Panthers in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
I consider Carolina to be the front-runner to win the Stanley Cup heading into this season. The Hurricanes have a deep, talented roster that only improved after the additions of Bunting, Orlov, and DeAngelo. Remember, if not for some injuries to its top two lines last season, Carolina might’ve won the East. It feels like the Hurricanes are in great position to win their second Stanley Cup in the organization’s history.
“Remember kid, there’s heroes and there’s legends. Heroes get remembered but legends never die, follow your heart kid, and you’ll never go wrong.”
– Babe Ruth, “The Sandlot” (1993)
The calendar has turned to October. The temperature is starting to cool off. The leaves are changing colors. While this time of year is mostly associated with football season, it also means that the MLB postseason is upon us.
Baseball’s regular season was full of surprises. There were several teams that vastly exceeded expectations like Baltimore, Texas, Miami, Cincinnati, the Chicago Cubs, and Arizona. Three of those four teams clinched playoff spots, and one won over 100 games. There were also several teams that underperformed and missed out on the postseason like the New York Yankees and New York Mets, Cleveland, St. Louis, and San Diego.
I’m not sure this bracket is as open as it was last year. I think there are likely four teams that can legitimately win the World Series. Then, possibly another two or three teams that could go on a run under the right circumstances. Given the way the regular season panned out, I think that means we’re in for an entertaining postseason with a few surprises.
American League wild card round (best-of-three series)
Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz (2) hits an rbi double against the Seattle Mariners in the seventh inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Texas (90-72) vs. No. 4 Tampa Bay (99-63)
I have a difficult time seeing Texas winning this series. The Rangers have struggled since mid-August – losing 24 of their last 42 games. Their starting pitching rotation has also taken a hit, with injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy. This should be a favorable matchup for Tampa Bay. The Rays’ offense ranked in the top five in all of baseball in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and stolen bases. They should be able to exploit Texas’ battered pitching.
Prediction: Rays in two
Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (4) throws the ball to first base for a double against the Tampa Bay Rays in the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Toronto (89-73) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (87-75)
I have a difficult time trusting Minnesota. The Twins have won one postseason series dating back to 2002. I feel better about Toronto. The Blue Jays have a solid starting pitching rotation with Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Yusei Kikuchi. Those four pitchers posted a combined ERA of 3.56. Toronto also has a potent offense, which ranked in the top eight in baseball in batting average and on-base percentage. This feels like a bad matchup for Minnesota.
Prediction: Blue Jays in three
National League wild card round (best-of-three series)
Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) points to his bench after hitting a home run during the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Miami (84-77) vs. No. 4 Philadelphia (90-72)
Best-of-three series often come down to which team has better pitching. Miami has talented starting pitchers in Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Eury Pérez. I’m not convinced that they’ll be able to prevent Philadelphia’s offense, which ranked in the top 10 in baseball in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, from scoring too many runs, though. I also think the experience of the Phillies will be too much for the Marlins.
Prediction: Phillies in three
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) pitches against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Arizona (84-78) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (92-70)
This is another matchup that I think experience will get the better of youth. Arizona has one of the youngest teams in baseball, with an average age of 28.6 years old. Milwaukee also has much better pitching in this matchup. The Brewers have one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Corbin Burnes (a former Cy Young winner), along with the No. 2-ranked bullpen in ERA. I think runs are going to be hard to come by for the inexperienced Diamondbacks.
Prediction: Brewers in two
AL Divisional Round (best-of-five series)
Baltimore Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander (25) greeted by catcher Adley Rutschman (35) following his two run home run in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Tampa Bay vs. No. 1 Baltimore (101-61)
It’s one thing for a young team to have success in the regular season, but it’s another to have it in the postseason. Baltimore has been a great story, but I just don’t see it winning the World Series. I worry about the Orioles’ pitching, which took a hit with All-Star closer Félix Bautista undergoing Tommy John Surgery. I have to give the advantage to Tampa Bay. The Rays are a veteran team with a lot of playoff experience, along with one of the best managers in baseball in Kevin Cash.
Prediction: Rays in four
Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) reacts after hitting a home run against the San Diego Padres in the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Toronto vs. No. 2 Houston (90-72)
I don’t see Toronto getting past Houston. The Astros are the more experienced team. They’ve made it to the ALCS or World Series each season since 2017. Houston also played really well in recent weeks – winning 40 of its last 71 games, which allowed it to win the AL West division. I think the Blue Jays are going to have a difficult time outscoring the Astros. Houston ranked in the top five in baseball in runs scored, batting average, and on-base percentage.
Prediction: Astros in four
NL Divisional Round (best-of-five series)
Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley (27) celebrates after a home run with first baseman Matt Olson (28) against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Philadelphia vs. No. 1 Atlanta (104-58)
I have a difficult time seeing Atlanta losing this series after the regular season it just had. The Braves led baseball in wins and ranked No. 1 in baseball in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. They also have one of the better starting pitching rotations and bullpens. Philadelphia has the pitching and offense to pull off the upset. It’s just going to be difficult to get the better of Atlanta over the course of a five-game series.
Prediction: Braves in four
Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts (50) slides into second base to beat a throw to San Diego Padres second baseman Ha-Seong Kim (7) for a stolen base in the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)
Don’t be so quick to rule out Milwaukee in this series. The Brewers have been red hot since the All-Star Break – winning 42 of their last 70 games with a run differential of +94. However, I’m going to pick the Dodgers to win. They just have too much star power and experience. The Dodgers have reached the NLCS or World Series four times in the last seven seasons. Milwaukee should make things interesting, but the Dodgers’ talented roster will propel them to the next round.
Prediction: Dodgers in five
ALCS (best-of-seven series)
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow (20) throws a pitch against the New York Yankees in the second inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Tampa Bay vs. No. 2 Houston
The odds of making it to the World Series for a third-consecutive season seems unlikely. The New York Yankees were the last team to do that between 1998-2001. I don’t think that bodes well for Houston, so I’m going to give the advantage to Tampa Bay. I’ve been impressed with the Rays. They lost two of their best players in Wander Franco and Shane McClanahan and still found a way to win almost 100 games. I feel really good about Tampa Bay winning the AL.
Prediction: Rays in six
NLCS (best-of-seven series)
Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) reacts after a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. No. 1 Atlanta
It’s impressive that the Dodgers were able to have the season they did given their injuries. I think the injuries to their starting pitching rotation, which includes Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May, will come back to bite them in this series. Atlanta has too much firepower offensively – averaging 5.8 runs per game. The Dodgers might win games when Clayton Kershaw is on the mound, but I can’t trust the rest of their rotation.
Prediction: Braves in six
2023 World Series (best-of-seven series)
Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
I need to see a small-market team like Tampa Bay win the World Series before I believe that it can. I also think not having Franco and McClanahan will hurt the Rays at some point this postseason. Tampa Bay has the pitching – particularly in the bullpen – to make this a competitive series. I’m going to pick Atlanta to win, though. I think the Braves are the most complete team in baseball. Their lineup is loaded with star players with Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies. Atlanta also has a quality starting pitching rotation, led by Spencer Strider, and bullpen. I think the Braves will win their second World Series title in three seasons.
Prediction: Braves in seven World Series MVP: Spencer Strider
All Things Sports from a Millennial 