Movie quote of the day:
“I don’t scratch my head unless it itches and I don’t dance unless I hear some music. I will not be intimidated. That’s just the way it is.”
– Coach Herman Boone, “Remember the Titans” (2000)
Another NFL draft is upon us. It feels like it’s taken forever to get to this point. That might be because I’ve been so caught up in what kind of compensation Green Bay could get for Aaron Rodgers, which dragged on for over a month. However, the build up to the first round has been eventful, to say the least.
It feels like I say this every year, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a more unpredictable draft. That’s mostly because this is considered to be one of the worst draft classes in the last decade. We all have a pretty good idea of which player will be drafted by Carolina with the No. 1 overall pick, but then it’s anyone’s guess afterward.
Even though this isn’t considered to be a strong draft class, I believe teams will still find quality players. There’s a large pool of talent at the following positions: running back, tight end, offensive line, edge rusher, and cornerback. The majority of the prospects in this draft class have a mix of pros and cons, but there’s also a good chunk that have good traits and high ceilings. So, I think there’s going to be a high bust/hit ratio with these players.
Last year was the first time that I based my mock draft on Vegas odds. Given how unpredictable this year’s draft is looking, I decided to go back to that well, even more so than last year. All odds in this post are from FanDuel. I just hope I can get the same number of correct picks that I did last year (four), which isn’t my personal best.
First round:
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago; 3-14) – QB Bryce Young, Alabama
The odds have shifted dramatically in recent weeks. Young is now considered the heavy favorite (-5000) to be drafted by Carolina with this pick. We all knew that the Panthers were going to draft a quarterback when they traded up and all signs point to Young being their guy. It makes a lot of sense because Carolina needs a quarterback and Young is considered the best one in this draft class.
2. Houston Texans (3-13-1) – Edge Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
All signs are pointing to Houston passing on a quarterback with this pick. There’s been a lot of buzz that Wilson is going to be the choice here, and Vegas also considers him the favorite to be the first defensive player off the board. I think Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans wants to quickly improve his team’s pass rush. Wilson is a project, but his ceiling is incredibly high given his physical traits.
3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) – Edge Will Anderson, Alabama
I doubt Arizona is going to be able to trade this pick. Improving the secondary is arguably the biggest need for the Cardinals, but it’s too early to pick a defensive back. The best way to help your secondary is to improve your pass rush, which is also a need for Arizona. Anderson isn’t only the best edge rusher still available, but he might end up being the best player in this draft class.
4. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1) – QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Despite what Indianapolis general manager Jim Irsay has said recently, I expect the Colts to use this pick on a quarterback. I’ve thought for weeks that Levis would be a great fit for the Colts. I’m not going to change my mind now. He has the physical traits to develop into a quality starter, and I think GM Chris Ballard is going to be all over him. This feels like a great fit for both sides.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver; 5-12) – DL Jalen Carter, Georgia
Seattle has been quiet throughout the draft process. I’m to the point that I think a quarterback is definitely in play here, but I keep coming back to Carter. He’s considered the best prospect in this draft class and Seattle needs help in the interior of its defensive front. If this is the way the board falls, I think the Seahawks will be rushing to get the card to commissioner Roger Goodell.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams; 5-12) – CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
I wouldn’t be shocked if Detroit pounced on a quarterback. After the way last season ended, though, I think the Lions want to compete instead of looking to the future. The best way for them to do that is to improve defensively, particularly in the secondary. Witherspoon is considered the best cornerback in this draft class, and is also a considerable favorite to be drafted at this point.
7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) – T Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
I believe the rumors that Las Vegas is out on these quarterbacks. If the Raiders are set on Jimmy Garoppolo, they must improve their offensive line. Garoppolo hasn’t played a full season since 2019 because of injuries and Las Vegas has holes up front. I expect Johnson to be the first tackle off the board. Having him at right tackle and Kolton Miller at left tackle could go a long way for Las Vegas.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) – RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
I’ve said for weeks that Robinson is going to be a top 20 pick, but I didn’t know where. The recent buzz indicates that he’s going in the top 10 and that the team targeting him is Atlanta. It makes a lot of sense, too. Robinson is a great fit for what head coach Arthur Smith likes to do offensively. Robinson is also one of the safest prospects of this draft class and I think the Falcons value that.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina; 7-10) – T Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
By trading back, Chicago made it clear that the it’s committed to Justin Fields as its starting quarterback. That’s why I expect the Bears to help Fields in some way with this pick. I think it starts with Chicago improving its offensive line, which was one of the worst in the NFL last year. Skoronski is versatile enough to play tackle or guard. He’d be able to contribute right away for the Bears.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans; 7-10) – Edge Nolan Smith, Georgia
I’m expecting Philadelphia to address the trenches with this pick. I’m just not sure which position. With the top two offensive linemen off the board, I think the Eagles will go defense. Smith makes the most sense after his performance at the combine a few weeks ago. He’s a freak athlete who can come off the edge or play off the ball. I’m not sure GM Howie Roseman will be able to help himself.
11. Tennessee Titans (7-10) – QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
This feels like Ryan Tannehill’s last year with Tennessee. There have been rumors of the Titans shopping him around and Malik Willis wasn’t impressive as a rookie last year. I firmly believe Tennessee is in on one of these quarterbacks. Despite the negative reports on Stroud recently, I still think there’s a lot to like about him. Vegas thinks Stroud will be the third quarterback off the board, too.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland; 7-10) – QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Even though I don’t think Houston will use the No. 2 pick on a quarterback, I have a difficult time believing it won’t use either of its first-round picks on a quarterback. The best quarterback prospect still available is Richardson, who might be the most athletic quarterback to come through the draft since Cam Newton. Richardson is a very raw prospect, but he has a high ceiling.
13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets; 7-10) – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Everyone is going to scoff at this because Green Bay hasn’t picked a wide receiver in the first round since 2002. There’s a good chance that changes this year. There’s legitimate belief that the Packers are high on Smith-Njigba. Vegas considers Green Bay the likely landing spot for him, too. Smith-Njigba is exactly the type of player that the Packers need in their passing attack.
14. New England Patriots (8-9) – CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
New England has a lot of offensive needs, but don’t be surprised if Bill Belichick scoops up a cornerback with this pick. The Patriots have a history of doing their homework on cornerbacks. After Devin McCourty’s retirement, New England could use help in its secondary. Gonzalez has the highest ceiling of the cornerbacks in this draft class and I’m sure Belichick has his eye on him.
15. New York Jets (from Green Bay; 8-9) – T Darnell Wright, Tennessee
Now that the Jets have Aaron Rodgers, they have to bolster their offensive line. Duane Brown isn’t a long-term solution at tackle and Mekhi Becton has struggled staying healthy since entering the league. Even though Wright will likely be a right tackle at the next level, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the first offensive lineman off the board. He has the traits to be a starter at either left or right tackle.
16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1) – TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
The closer we get to the draft the more I think Washington will use this pick to help either Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett. Tight end is a position of need for the Commanders. Logan Thomas has regressed the last two seasons and depth is questionable. Mayer is considered to be one of the safest picks in this draft class. He’ll give the Commanders a presence in the middle of the field.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) – CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
I have a feeling that Pittsburgh is going to be targeting Porter. His father was an All-Pro linebacker for the Steelers for eight seasons. If the opportunity presents itself, I expect Pittsburgh to go with the legacy pick. Cornerback is a need for the Steelers, too. They lack difference makers at the position and Patrick Peterson isn’t a long-term option. Porter will contribute right away for this team.
18. Detroit Lions (9-8) – DL Calijah Kancey, Pitt
Even though Kancey is undersized (6’1”, 280 pounds), I think a team in the top 20 is going to take a chance on him. I think that team could be Detroit. The Lions need help in the interior of their defensive line. Kancey is a freak athlete and strikes me as a player with a high motor. If he was a little bigger, he’d likely be a top 10 pick. I could see head coach Dan Campbell really liking Kancey.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) – T Broderick Jones, Georgia
If this is the way the board falls, Tampa Bay is going to be running the card up to Goodell. The Buccaneers have a void to fill at left tackle after releasing Donovan Smith. Even if they move Tristan Wirfs to that position, it doesn’t eliminate this team’s need for a tackle. I’ll be surprised if Jones makes it to this point. He’s a raw prospect, but he has everything it takes to turn into a quality player.
20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) – Edge Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
Seattle made it clear early in the offseason that it needs to improve its defensive front. The Seahawks got Carter with their first pick and they’re in a prime position to add an edge rusher here. Van Ness is a long and very athletic prospect. He has what it takes to develop into a quality pass rusher in the NFL. I could see him being a difference maker in Seattle’s defense.
N/A. Miami Dolphins (9-8)
First-round pick forfeited because of tampering violations.
21. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) – WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
The Chargers are likely going to use this pick to get Justin Herbert some help. This could be the last season they have both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers could afford to add to the wide receiver position anyway. I think a team is going to take a chance on Johnston because of his physical traits. He’s also favored by a large margin to be picked by the Chargers in the first round.
22. Baltimore Ravens (10-7) – CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
Everyone probably thinks Baltimore is going to pick a wide receiver here, but I’m not convinced. I’m under the impression that the Ravens are looking at the defensive side of the ball, specifically at the cornerback position. They really need a quality corner to play opposite of Marlon Humphrey. Banks might be the best coverage corner in this draft class. He should make an impact in Baltimore.
23. Minnesota Vikings (13-4) – QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
I realize that this is going to surprise people, but all signs are pointing to Minnesota targeting a quarterback early. There have even been rumors that the Vikings are inquiring about trading up into the top 10. I’m buying all the Hooker stock as we enter the draft. He’s a heavy favorite to sneak into the first round (-145) and Vegas thinks Minnesota the likely destination.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) – Edge Myles Murphy, Clemson
I don’t think Jacksonville is going to get good value if it wants to fill its needs with this pick. So, I could see the Jaguars adding to their defensive front. Murphy is probably the best player available and he’d give Jacksonville some needed depth. He also has one of the highest ceilings among the edge rushers in this draft class, which is something GM Trent Baalke typically values.
25. New York Giants (9-7-1) – IOL John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
The only wide receiver that I think the Giants will target with this pick is Johnston and he’s off the board. The Giants really need help in the interior of their offensive line, specifically at center. The Giants currently have only one center on their roster, and that player has just seven starts over the last three seasons. Drafting Schmitz here is good value. I think he’ll contribute right away for the Giants.
26. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) – DL Mazi Smith, Michigan
Dallas could go in a variety of ways with this pick. However, the interior of its defensive line is a problem. The Cowboys currently have four interior defensive linemen on their roster. Three of those players posted a Pro Football Focus grade of 41.2 last year, and two of them will be free agents next year. Dallas must add to the position. There’s been a lot of buzz that Smith could end up being a first-round pick.
27. Buffalo Bills (13-3) – WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
I’m not convinced that Flowers (5’9”, 182 pounds) will be drafted in the first round. The only players at that size that were drafted in the first round in the last decade ran sub-4.4 40-yard dashes, which Flowers didn’t do. However, it seems like Buffalo is going to use this pick on an offensive weapon and Vegas is also pretty high on Flowers. I think there’s a good chance that the Bills take him here.
28. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) – TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
I think you could feel C.J. Uzomah’s absence in Cincinnati’s offense last year. The Bengals could really use a presence over the middle of the field in their passing attack. I don’t see them passing on Kincaid, who some draft analysts consider to be the best tight end prospect in this draft class. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if he’s off the board by the time Cincinnati is on the clock.
29. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco via Miami and Denver; 13-4) – DL Bryan Bresee, Clemson
New Orleans’ front office typically doesn’t look ahead when it comes to the team’s needs. The most pressing need for the Saints entering the draft is arguably interior defense line. That position took a hit this offseason after New Orleans lost David Onyemata, Kentavius Street, and Shy Tuttle. Bresee is the best interior defensive lineman still on the board. I think this is a good spot for him.
30. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
There’s been a lot of buzz this week that Philadelphia is interested in drafting a running back. That makes sense considering the Eagles lost Miles Sanders this offseason. If they don’t draft Robinson in the top 10, I think Gibbs will be on their radar here. He showcased his athleticism at the combine. Gibbs and Hurts in the same backfield will be a problem for opposing teams.
31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) – Edge Will McDonald IV, Iowa State
I think Kansas City likes what it has at offensive tackle despite losing Orlando Brown Jr. After losing Frank Clark, though, edge rusher becomes a big need for the Chiefs. They currently have a lot of uncertainty at that position. McDonald is a heavy favorite to be drafted in the first round (-320). There’s a good chance he might be off the board by the time we get to this point.
Second round:
| Pick | Player |
| 32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Chicago) | T Anton Harrison, Oklahoma |
| 33. Houston Texans | WR Jordan Addison, USC |
| 34. Arizona Cardinals | CB Cam Smith, South Carolina |
| 35. Indianapolis Colts | IOL O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida |
| 36. Los Angeles Rams | Edge Keion White, Georgia Tech |
| 37. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) | IOL Steve Avila, TCU |
| 38. Las Vegas Raiders | CB D.J. Turner, Michigan |
| 39. Carolina Panthers | WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee |
| 40. New Orleans Saints | Edge B.J. Ojulari, LSU |
| 41. Tennessee Titans | T Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse |
| 42. Green Bay Packers (from Cleveland via New York Jets) | TE Darnell Washington, Georgia |
| 43. New York Jets | S Brian Branch, Alabama |
| 44. Atlanta Falcons | Edge Tuli Tuipulotu, USC |
| 45. Green Bay Packers | Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State |
| 46. New England Patriots | WR Josh Downs, North Carolina |
| 47. Washington Commanders | CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia |
| 48. Detroit Lions | LB Drew Sanders, Arkansas |
| 49. Pittsburgh Steelers | LB Jack Campbell, Iowa |
| 50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DL Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin |
| 51. Miami Dolphins | T Dawand Jones, Ohio State |
| 52. Seattle Seahawks | WR Cedric Tillman, Tennessee |
| 53. Chicago Bears (from Baltimore) | RB Zach Charbonnet, UCLA |
| 54. Los Angeles Chargers | DL Adetowima Adebawore, Northwestern |
| 55. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota) | TE Sam LaPorta, Iowa |
| 56. Jacksonville Jaguars | CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State |
| 57. New York Giants | WR Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss |
| 58. Dallas Cowboys | IOL Joe Tippmann, Wisconsin |
| 59. Buffalo Bills | LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson |
| 60. Cincinnati Bengals | S Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M |
| 61. Chicago Bears (from San Francisco via Carolina) | CB Julius Brents, Kansas State |
| 62. Philadelphia Eagles | IOL Anthony Bradford, LSU |
| 63. Kansas City Chiefs | T Tyler Steen, Alabama |
Third round:
| Pick | Player |
| 64. Chicago Bears | Edge Derick Hall, Auburn |
| 65. Houston Texans | LB Nick Herbig, Wisconsin |
| 66. Arizona Cardinals | S Jartavius Martin, Illinois |
| 67. Denver Broncos (from Indianapolis) | IOL Luke Wypler, Ohio State |
| 68. Denver Broncos | Edge YaYa Diaby, Louisville |
| 69. Los Angeles Rams | CB Clark Phillips III, Utah |
| 70. Las Vegas Raiders | IOL Cody Mauch, North Dakota State |
| 71. New Orleans Saints | TE Tucker Kraft, South Dakota State |
| 72. Tennessee Titans | WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma |
| 73. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) | RB Devon Achane, Texas A&M |
| 74. Cleveland Browns (from New York Jets) | Edge Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame |
| 75. Atlanta Falcons | CB Terell Smith, Minnesota |
| 76. New England Patriots (from Carolina) | DL Siaki Ika, Baylor |
| 77. Los Angeles Rams (from New England via Miami) | IOL Chandler Zavala, NC State |
| 78. Green Bay Packers | S Jordan Battle, Alabama |
| 79. Indianapolis Colts (from Washington) | CB Tyrique Stevenson, Miami |
| 80. Pittsburgh Steelers | DL Kobie Turner, Wake Forest |
| 81. Detroit Lions | RB Israel Abanikanda, Pitt |
| 82. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | S Sydney Brown, Illinois |
| 83. Seattle Seahawks | CB Darius Rush, South Carolina |
| 84. Miami Dolphins | RB Tyjae Spears, Tulane |
| 85. Los Angeles Chargers | LB Daiyan Henley, Washington State |
| 86. Baltimore Ravens | WR Tyler Scott, Cincinnati |
| 87. Minnesota Vikings | CB Garrett Williams, Syracuse |
| 88. Jacksonville Jaguars | TE Luke Musgrave, Oregon State |
| 89. New York Giants | LB Henry To’oTo’o, Alabama |
| 90. Dallas Cowboys | TE Luke Schoonmaker, Michigan |
| 91. Buffalo Bills | DL Jaquelin Roy, LSU |
| 92. Cincinnati Bengals | RB Roschon Johnson, Texas |
| 93. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco) | Edge Lonnie Phelps, Kansas |
| 94. Philadelphia Eagles | DL Byron Young, Alabama |
| 95. Kansas City Chiefs | WR Michael Wilson, Stanford |
| 96. Arizona Cardinals (compensatory pick) | IOL Olu Oluwatimi, Michigan |
| 97. Washington Commanders (compensatory pick) | IOL Emil Ekiyor, Alabama |
| 98. Cleveland Browns (Resolution JC-2A pick) | LB Dorian Williams, Tulane |
| 99. San Francisco 49ers (Resolution JC-2A pick) | Edge Isaiah McGuire, Missouri |
| 100. Las Vegas Raiders (from Kansas City via New York Giants; Resolution JC-2A pick) | DL Colby Wooden, Auburn |
| 101. San Francisco 49ers (Resolution JC-2A pick) | CB Riley Moss, Iowa |
| 102. San Francisco 49ers (Resolution JC-2A pick) | T Blake Freeland, BYU |
All Things Sports from a Millennial 