Movie quote of the day:
“I’m curious what makes you so curious.”
— Django, “Django Unchained” (2012)
2024 Stanley Cup Final
Edmonton (49-27-6; 104 points) vs. Florida (52-24-6; 110 points)
Odds: Panthers -130
I’d by lying if I said that I’d watched a single game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs after my Boston Bruins were eliminated. However, I’m looking forward to this matchup. On one side, you have Florida trying to win the organization’s first Stanley Cup. On the other side, you have Edmonton with the best player in hockey in Connor McDavid. The Oilers are also trying to be the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since Montréal did it in 1993. Once again, we’re going to have history in either outcome. You couldn’t ask for better storylines.
Edmonton is making its first appearance in the Stanley Cup Final since 2006, and just the second time since the Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier era. The Oilers finally managed to get over the hump after years of people questioning (myself included) if they’d ever break through despite having two of the best players in the game in McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Edmonton has played like one of the top teams in the NHL since late February — winning 28 of their last 45 games, including the postseason. The Oilers would likely be favored to win it all if it were any other season.
The reason why Edmonton made it out of the West is mostly due to its offense. The Oilers have averaged 3.5 goals per game, which is second among playoff teams. They’ve also had a good mix of quality play from star players — McDavid and Draisaitl have scored 15 goals and tallied 59 points in 18 games — as well as contribution from non-star players. Zach Hyman actually leads Edmonton in goals this postseason, and even Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, and Mattias Ekholm have contributed. That’s a sign of a team playing championship-level hockey.
Florida got hot at the right time last year — winning 32 of its last 52 games, including the postseason. That momentum carried over into this year, which is why the Panthers are appearing in the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons. The Panthers have faced a gauntlet to get to this point. They took out a Tampa Bay team in the first round that has won two Stanley Cups in the last five years, a pretty good Boston team in the second round, and the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final. We’ll see if Florida can redeem itself after coming up short last year.
It’s been a total team effort by the Panthers to get to this point. Florida has played well offensively — averaging 3.23 goals per game, which ranks fourth among playoff teams. Ten different players have scored at least three goals this postseason, so the production has come across the board. The strength of the Panthers has arguably been their defense, though. Their blue line has allowed the fewest shot attempts this postseason. Sergei Bobrovsky has also allowed just 2.20 goals per game, so he’s playing at a high level. I just don’t see a weakness with this team right now.
Even though the Oilers will have the two best players in this series, I can’t pick against Florida. I expect the Panthers’ defense to give Edmonton’s offense fits. Florida has allowed just 22.1 shots per game in the playoffs, which would’ve led the NHL by a considerable margin in the regular season. Every team the Panthers have played the last few weeks has struggled to get shots on goal. That’s allowed Bobrovsky to flourish in the net since he’s not facing much pressure. McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hyman will get theirs, but it’ll be difficult for them to make a significant impact over the course of this series.
On the other end of the ice, I don’t trust the Oilers’ goaltending. Stuart Skinner has been okay this postseason (allowing 2.50 goals per game), but his save percentage is .897. That won’t be good enough to win this series. Florida’s offensive attack has averaged 33.2 shots per game, which ranks second among playoff teams. That’ll be problematic for the Oilers. If the Panthers continue to get shots on goal, I doubt Skinner can keep the puck out of the net. That’ll put even more pressure on Edmonton’s offense to perform at a very high level, which isn’t a recipe for success.
Florida has felt like a team on a mission since losing the Stanley Cup Final to Vegas last year. This is a favorable matchup for the Panthers. They control the advantage on both ends of the ice, in the net, coaching, and postseason experience. Florida also has plenty of depth, which is the most significant attribute in hockey. I just don’t know how the Oilers are able to win this series unless McDavid and Draisaitl both have historic performances. I think the Panthers are poised to win their first Stanley Cup.
Prediction: Panthers in six
Conn Smythe winner: Aleksander Barkov
All Things Sports from a Millennial 