Movie quote of the day:
“You probably heard we ain’t in the prisoner-takin’ business; we in the killin’ Nazi business. And cousin, business is a-boomin’.”
— Lt. Aldo Raine, “Inglourious Basterds” (2009)
2024 NBA Finals
Dallas (50-32) vs. Boston (64-18)
Odds: Celtics -225
For just the fourth time since starting this blog, one of my favorite teams is playing for the championship (Boston). I’ll do my best to be impartial. I think we have a great matchup in this series. Both teams are playing well right now. The Celtics were the best team in the regular season and have shown no sign of slowing down. Dallas is red hot, which is why it made it to this point as a No. 5 seed. This potentially could be one of the more entertaining NBA Finals that we’ve had in the last decade.
This is the first time since 2011, and just the third time in the organization’s history, that Dallas is in the Finals. The Mavericks have had to go through a gauntlet to get to this point — knocking off a Clippers team with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the No. 1-seed in the West in Oklahoma City, and finishing off a hot Minnesota team in five games. That’s an impressive run from a young team that doesn’t have much Finals experience besides Kyrie Irving.
Dallas has made it to this point mostly due to the play of Luka Dončić, who’s averaged 28.7 points per game. He’s been an assassin. The Mavericks have gotten contribution from Irving and P.J. Washington to help take the attention from Dončić, too. Dallas has also played much better defensively the last few weeks — allowing 103.8 points per game — as opposed to 115.6 points per game in the regular season. The Mavericks pose a lot of problems for Boston.
I suppose that you can call the Celtics one of the usual suspects? Boston is in the Finals for the fourth time since 2008, and the second time in the last three years. The Celtics haven’t had nearly as difficult of a run to get to this point as Dallas, though. They benefitted from an injury to Jimmy Butler in the first round, Donovan Mitchell in the second round, and Tyrese Haliburton in the Eastern Conference Finals. That concerns me as a Boston fan.
The Celtics have the best collection of talent of any NBA team. Boston has five quality players at the top of its roster, including one of the best players in the league in Jayson Tatum, and a decent bench. That’s why the Celtics had little to no trouble getting through the East despite not having Kristaps Porziņģis. I also think Boston is good enough defensively — allowing just 101.2 points per game this postseason — to slow down Dončić and Dallas.
I understand that Dallas is a hot team right now, but I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Boston. The Celtics have two solid defensive guards in Derrick White and Jrue Holiday to guard Irving, along with two excellent defensive forwards in Tatum and Jaylen Brown to guard Dončić. I’m confident that Dončić will find ways to score, but it’ll be difficult for him to be as effective in this series as he’s been throughout the postseason. If that ends up being the case, I’m not sure how the Mavericks can win.
On the other end of the court, I think Boston also has the advantage. This will be the first time this postseason that Dallas will have to defend a team with more than two reliable scorers. If Tatum and Brown have some off nights, the Celtics have White and Holiday, who are shooting a combined 40.2% from 3-point range, and even Al Horford can be effective coming off the bench. Getting a healthy Porziņģis back in the lineup should only help Boston, too.
In a series that should be as competitive as this one, I like to factor in coaching. However, neither of these teams have a significant coaching advantage. There are some factors going against the Mavericks that are hard to quantify, though. Since the NBA implemented the 82-game regular season in 1967, only five teams have won fewer than 52 games and won the Finals (excluding the shortened 1998-99, 2011-12, 2019-20, and 2020-21 seasons), and it’s only happened once since 1978. Plus, there have only been two teams that were lower than a No. 3 seed in either conference to win the Finals (Boston in 1969 and Houston in 1995).
There’s a lot of pressure on the Celtics to win it all this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re able to feel the tension on their team throughout the course of this series. However, I think Boston is poised to win. The Celtics will have six of the best 10 players in this matchup, and five of the best seven. It’ll be difficult for Dallas to overcome that. I think Boston wins its 18th championship in franchise history.
Prediction: Celtics in seven
Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown
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