The NBA regular season ended over the weekend while I was at my brother’s bachelor party in Cincinnati. I was actually worried that I wouldn’t have enough time to write up this post since I had to travel all day Sunday, but I managed to get it done. Some people might think that this post is coming a little early since the playoffs technically don’t start until Saturday, but my readers ought to know that I consider the NBA’s Play-In Tournament to be part of the league’s postseason. This will be the fifth installment of the Play-In Tournament, so I shouldn’t have to explain how it works at this point.
After a few years of having some semblance of balance, it feels like the league went right back to where it was between 2015-20. I think there are only two or three teams that can legitimately win the championship. I consider every other team to just be along for the ride until I see otherwise. Then again, NBA teams are notorious for not taking the regular season seriously. There’s a good chance that some teams are able to turn it on suddenly and play championship-level basketball now that it’s the postseason. We saw it happen last year with the Lakers and Miami, which were both in the Play-In Tournament and made deep postseason runs.
Even though the league has become so top heavy, I still can’t help but feel nostalgic about this time of year. Some of my fondest memories of my youth came watching the NBA postseason late at night while my semester of school was winding down. I really hope teams step up their game these next few weeks. I enjoy parity and having some unpredictability in playoffs.
Play-In Tournament
Eastern Conference
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) dribbles up court against the Chicago Bulls during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami (46-36) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia (47-35)
With this game in Philadelphia, I’ll give the advantage to the 76ers. Miami has struggled offensively on the road — ranking No. 21 in offensive efficiency. The Heat are a great defensive team, but I’m not convinced they’ll be able to score on Philadelphia, which has been a great defensive team at home. You have to be able to score points consistently to advance in the postseason. Joel Embiid is also expected to be healthy, which will only benefits the 76ers.
Winner: 76ers
Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan (11) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers forward Dean Wade (32) and center Jarrett Allen (31) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Atlanta (36-46) vs. No. 9 Chicago (39-43)
I don’t know if Atlanta is good enough defensively to get out of the play-in tournament. The Hawks might not even be good enough on that end of the court to win this game. They rank No. 27 in the league in defensive efficiency. Chicago has just enough scoring depth — with four different players averaging at least 18 points per game — to take advantage of that mismatch. I also think the Bulls have the coaching advantage in Billy Donovan.
Winner: Bulls
Miami Heat guard Jimmy Butler (22) attempts a shot against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
No. 9 Chicago vs. No. 8 Miami
I doubt Chicago is a good enough team to win this game. The Bulls don’t have the star power to match up with Miami. They’ve also struggled significantly on the road — winning just 19 of 41 games and ranking No. 23 in defensive efficiency. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Heat, who will have the two best players on the court in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. I also think Miami has the coaching advantage in Erik Spoelstra.
Winner: Heat
Western Conference
New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) dunks the ball against Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the second half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) vs. No. 7 New Orleans (49-33)
In essentially a one-game playoff, I’ll give the advantage to LeBron James. He typically saves his best for the postseason and you’ve seen that the last few weeks. The Lakers have won 20 of their last 30 games, and James averaged 26.3 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans has been one of the top defensive teams throughout the regular season, but I’m not convinced it can guard the Lakers well enough to win this game.
Winner: Lakers
Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) shoots the basketball during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State (46-36) vs. No. 9 Sacramento (46-36)
Even though Golden State has been inconsistent this season, I’ll still pick it to win this game. The Warriors have actually been very good on the road — winning 25 games and ranking in the top five in defensive efficiency. Golden State is also a veteran team, whereas Sacramento is one of the younger teams in the league. When these teams met in the postseason last year, the lack of playoff experience was a disadvantage for the Kings.
Winner: Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) dribbles against the Utah Jazz at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Golden State vs. No. 7 New Orleans
Golden State has just been too inconsistent all season, even showing signs of regression. It feels like this will be the end of the Warriors’ run as one of the top teams in the league, which is why I don’t trust them to get out of the play-in tournament. New Orleans is a good team with an ascending star player in Zion Williamson. The Pelicans also rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency at home, so they should be able to stifle Golden State’s offense.
Winner: Pelicans
First round
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) controls the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Boston (64-18)
I find it highly unlikely that Miami gets the same magic that it had last year, when it won the East as a No. 8 seed. That type of run rarely happens in professional sports, specifically in the NBA. I think the Heat will have a difficult time defending and keeping up with Boston’s offense, which ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency and averages 120.6 points per game. I expect this to be a challenging series for the Celtics, but I think they get it done.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Orlando (47-35) vs. No. 4 Cleveland (48-34)
Orlando has been one of the best stories of the season, but I doubt it’ll win this series. The Magic are a very young team that lacks postseason experience. On the other side, Cleveland has a solid squad that’s led by one of the best players in basketball in Donovan Mitchell. Orlando has also been too inconsistent offensively — ranking last among playoff teams in offensive efficiency. I expect the Cavaliers to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Cavaliers in six
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the game against the Chicago Bulls at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Indiana (47-35) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (49-33)
Milwaukee hasn’t played well in recent weeks. The Bucks have posted a record of 19-20 since firing Adrian Griffin back in January — allowing an abysmal 111.8 points per game during that stretch. This could end up being a favorable matchup for Indiana, which averages 123.1 points per game. However, the Pacers are even worse than Milwaukee defensively. The Bucks also have more talent and postseason experience. I think they squeak out a series victory.
Prediction: Bucks in seven
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) brings the ball up court in the fourth quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Philadelphia vs. No. 2 New York (50-32)
Philadelphia won eight games in a row to end the regular season, so it’s a hot team right now. With a healthy Embiid, the 76ers have a shot of winning this series. I have to pick New York to advance, though. The Knicks have been surging the last few weeks — winning 13 of their last 18 games. Losing Julius Randle hurts, but I think New York has enough depth to overcome his absence. The Knicks should also benefit from having home-court advantage.
Prediction: Knicks in seven
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball down the court against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 New Orleans vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City (57-25)
Despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league, Oklahoma City had its best season since Kevin Durant was with the team. Even though they’re inexperienced, I think the Thunder are a real threat to win the West. They have a star player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with some scoring depth. I don’t see Oklahoma City being one-and-done in this postseason.
Prediction: Thunder in six
LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) dribbles against the Golden State Warriors during the second half of the game at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas (50-32) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)
It’s easy to want to pick the Clippers because they have star players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden. However, the Clippers are a team that I don’t trust in the postseason. They’ve won just three playoff series since 2019. Dallas is arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. The Mavericks have won 16 of their last 20 games. The Clippers also aren’t a great defensive team, so I think they’ll have a difficult time defending Luka Dončić.
Prediction: Mavericks in seven
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) celebrates after making a shot against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix (49-33) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (56-26)
I don’t want to do it, but I’ll give the slight advantage in this series to Phoenix. The Suns arguably have the best scoring trio in the league in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Minnesota has been great defensively, but it’ll have a difficult time defending those three players over the course of a series. I’m not convinced that the Timberwolves have a reliable scorer outside of Anthony Edwards. The organization also hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004.
Prediction: Suns in six
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) passes the ball in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Denver (57-25)
I don’t like picking against James in the postseason, but this is feels like a mismatch for the Lakers. Denver has the MVP frontrunner in Nikola Jokić and plenty of scoring depth, including five other players to average a minimum of 10.1 points per game. The Lakers haven’t played well away from home — winning just 19 games and ranking No. 20 in defensive efficiency. It’ll be incredibly difficult for the Lakers to pull off the upset in this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Second round
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) shoots in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Boston
I don’t know if Cleveland has enough reliable scorers to win this series. Boston will try to limit Mitchell’s production, so Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley will have to step up. They’re good players, but I doubt they can be counted on over the course of a series. The Celtics also have a lot more scoring depth, which will be problematic for the Cavaliers’ defense. Boston should get back to the Eastern Conference Finals for a third-straight year.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts after scoring the game-winning basket in overtime against the Sacramento Kings at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 New York
I don’t have much trust in Milwaukee after the way it ended the regular season. The Bucks haven’t been impressive the last few weeks. I’m not even convinced they’ll get past the first round. I feel like I have to pick New York to win this series. The Knicks are playing well right now and they have depth. I also think New York, which ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, should be able to consistently score points against Milwaukee’s porous defense.
Prediction: Knicks in six
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić (77) celibates after forward Tim Hardaway Jr. (not pictured) makes a three point jump shot against the Orlando Magic during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
Dončić has been on fire the last few weeks — averaging 33.2 points per game since mid-February. He’s going to be a problem for Oklahoma City, but I think it’s up to the task. The Thunder rank No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency, so they should be able to slow down Dončić. I don’t think the Mavericks have enough scoring depth to pull off the upset if that happens. This should be an entertaining series, but I have to give the advantage to Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Thunder in six
Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) dribbles against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 Phoenix vs. No. 2 Denver
There’s no way that I’m picking Phoenix to get the upset in this series. The Suns are one of the more talented teams in the NBA, but they haven’t been a reliable team since acquiring Durant last year. Eventually, teams have to put talent together and show it can win when it matters. Denver is the significantly better team. The Nuggets are great defensively and have plenty of scoring depth to complement Jokić. I expect Denver to make quick work of Phoenix.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Eastern Conference Finals
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) looks to shoot against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro (35) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 New York vs. No. 1 Boston
There’s plenty of room for optimism around New York, but I don’t see it getting past this point. The Knicks just aren’t as talented as Boston right now. With Randle out for the postseason, New York doesn’t have many reliable scorers outside of Jalen Brunson. It’ll be difficult for the Knicks to keep up with the Celtics over the course of a series. It feels like the East is Boston’s to lose, so I expect it to make its second trip to the NBA Finals in the last three years.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Western Conference Finals
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić (15) controls the ball in the second quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
This feels like a tough matchup for Oklahoma City. While I think the Thunder are a legitimate contender, I think their lack of postseason experience will prevent them from getting to the Finals. The main reason why I’m picking Denver to win this series is because Oklahoma City lacks a dynamic big man to defend Jokić, which makes this series a mismatch. If the Thunder can’t limit Jokić’s production, it might end up being a quick victory for the Nuggets.
Prediction: Nuggets in six
2024 NBA Finals
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Boston
It feels like we’re destined for a matchup between these teams in the Finals. They have the most depth and some of the best players in the game at the top of their rotations. Boston feels like a wagon this year, though. The Celtics average nearly 1.2 points per possession, which is the best in the category in over 20 years. I don’t know if any team will be able to slow down the Celtics’ offense this postseason, which has as many as eight quality scoring options on any given day. Defending Jokić will be a very tall order, but I think this Boston team is much better defensively than it was last year. Everything seems to be lining up for the Celtics to win their 18th championship.
Prediction: Celtics in seven Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
“I don’t like it, I don’t agree with it, but I accept it.”
— Lando Calrissian, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018)
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to players against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Purdue (34-4) vs. No. 1 UConn (36-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: UConn -6.5 Over/under: 145.5
Contrary to what we all thought would happen after the way the conference tournaments played out, this NCAA tournament has been pretty normal. The only double-digit seed to advance past the first weekend (and eventually to the Final Four) was a Power 5 school. That’s partly why we have two No. 1 seeds competing in the national championship for the first time since 2021, and just the third time since 2008. UConn and Purdue have been the most consistent teams in this tournament, combining for an average margin of victory of 22.3 points per game. This has a chance to be an entertaining title game.
North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) knocks the ball away from Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After last year’s embarrassing loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers have gotten the monkey off their back by getting to this point. The biggest difference between this Purdue team and last year’s team is a much improved backcourt. In five tournament games, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones have combined to shoot 40.5% from 3-point territory, and committed just 4.6 turnovers per game and averaged nearly 10 points per game apiece. They do a great job of complementing Zach Edey, who’s considered the best player in the country and has averaged 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the tournament. The Boilermakers have also been excellent defensively in their last five games — allowing only 60.2 points per game and holding teams to shoot just 39.3% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. If Purdue continues to shoot well from 3-point range and collect offensive rebounds, it certainly has a chance to knock off the Huskies.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/Arizona Republic-USA TODAY Sports
The defending national champions have shown no signs of slowing down the last few weeks. The Huskies have won 26 of their last 27 games by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. They’ve been impressive offensively in their last five games — shooting 50.8% from the field, and collecting 12 offensive rebounds per game and committing just eight turnovers per game. Unlike the Boilermakers, UConn’s offense has a very balanced scoring attack. The Huskies have had six different players score at least 10 points in a game in tournament play. UConn has also been just as good, if not better, on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies have allowed only 57.2 points per game, and held opposing teams to shoot just 34.6% from the field and 28.1% from beyond the arc. My only concern with UConn is its 3-point shooting, which has been lukewarm at best recently. When you factor that, it’s even more impressive how the Huskies have been able to win games in the tournament so convincingly.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The deciding factor of this game will likely be which team can win in the paint. Even though the Boilermakers have Edey (7’4″), I’m giving that advantage to UConn. The Huskies have more depth in the post with the trio of Donovan Clingan (7’2″), Alex Karaban (6’8″), and Samson Johnson (6’10”), who’ve combined to tally 26 blocks and 80 rebounds in five tournament games. They’ll be a problem for Edey, who isn’t very athletic. If Edey can’t get going, I don’t know how the Boilermakers win. I doubt their backcourt is good enough to pick up the slack given how well UConn has defended 3-pointers. The Huskies have more talent and scoring depth than Purdue, too. I like that UConn has won games in a variety of different ways despite not shooting well from beyond the arc. That’s a sign of a great team. I also think the Huskies will have a significant coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. It just feels like UConn is destined to be the first team to repeat as national champions since Florida did it in 2006-07.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone kisses the Larry O’Brien Trophy after winning the 2023 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The NBA regular season is upon us, after what was a relatively quiet offseason for the league. That’s something that I haven’t witnessed in over a decade. Before the recent Damian Lillard and Jrue Holliday trades, the biggest acquisition made this offseason was arguably Memphis trading for Marcus Smart. Outside of acquisitions, the biggest story was probably James Harden and his drama with Philadelphia.
Think about it, it feels like there’s always a big name to join a new team in recent years. We eventually got it with the Lillard trade, but it came in at the 11th hour of the offseason. That’s just something we’re not familiar with as NBA fans.
My outlook for this season is that the league is still very balanced. The days of teams having a “Big 3” comprised of super stars are in the rearview mirror. The best teams in the NBA currently have two star players and a bunch of quality role players. I’m not used to seeing so much parity in this league. That’s why I think as many as six or seven teams can legitimately win the championship, as opposed to just two or three a few seasons ago.
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dunks in the third quarter of their game against the Washington Wizards at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Major award winners predictions
Award
Winner
Most Valuable Player
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
Defensive Player of the Year
Evan Mobley, Cleveland
Sixth Man of the Year
Immanuel Quickley, New York
Rookie of the Year
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio
Price’s predicted major award winners
Antetokounmpo seems poised to have an MVP-caliber season. He’s arguably the best player in the NBA and has battled injuries each of the last two seasons. I also think having a new head coach in Milwaukee will allow Antetokounmpo to have more of an impact. Mobley is a good bet to win Defensive Player of the Year. He’s improved as a defender each year he’s been a pro, including being named to the first-team All-Defensive Team last season.
Quickley is one of the best players to come off the bench. He’s also improved as a player every season, improving his scoring to 14.9 points per game last season. Quickley is going to get a lot of recognition because he plays in New York, which is why I think he has a great chance to win the Sixth Man of the Year. I’m going chalk by picking Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year. He was regarded as one of the best prospects to come through the draft in recent years. With Gregg Poppvich as Wembanyama’s head coach, there’s no telling just how much of an impact he’ll have as a rookie.
Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) dribbles while defended by Oklahoma City Thunder forward Ousmane Dieng (13) during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
I think the East comes down to two teams: Boston and Milwaukee. They have the most collection of talent in the conference. I’m going to give the slight advantage to the Bucks, though. The addition of Lillard is huge and it gives Milwaukee two reliable scorers every game. It also pushes Khris Middleton down to the No. 3 scorer, which might be a better spot for him. As I mentioned before, I also think the Bucks having a new head coach is going to unleash a side of Antetokounmpo that we haven’t seen since he won MVP in 2020.
I don’t know what to expect from Boston. The Celtics are certainly talented enough to win it all, but they shook up their roster by moving on from Marcus Smart and Robert Williams, and acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Holliday. Boston should still finish in the top three in the East, though. I’m expecting Cleveland to improve with a full offseason of Donovan Mitchell working with the young players on the Cavaliers’ roster. I’m not going to count out Miami, either. The Heat won the East last year and have a great duo in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. A lot of things went their way last postseason, though, and they lost some quality role players this offseason.
I think the days of Philadelphia being one of the top teams in the East are in the rearview mirror. The 76ers have their hands full with Harden, who I’m not convinced will finish the season with the team, and they have a new head coach. New York is one of the better teams in the East. The Knicks have a nice trio in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and R.J. Barrett, along with a decent head coach in Tom Thibodeau. Atlanta should be the best team outside of the top six solely because of Trae Young. Indiana should improve from last year, especially if Tyrese Haliburton plays more than 56 games.
The last two spots of the play-in tournament will be a log jam between Brooklyn, Chicago, Orlando, and Toronto. I’m giving the Nets and Bulls the edge because those teams have a little more talent on their rosters. The Magic have some nice young players, but I need to see it make the playoffs first. There’s a decent chance that the Raptors trade away their best players before the deadline. Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington will likely round out the East. I doubt the Hornets have enough scoring outside of LaMelo Ball. The Pistons are still likely a year away from competing. The Wizards are entering a rebuild after trading Bradley Beal and Porzingis.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokič (15) against Phoenix Suns forward Chimezie Metu (4) during a preseason game at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Western Conference
Team
Record
1
Denver Nuggets
53-29
2
Phoenix Suns
52-30
3
Los Angeles Lakers
50-32
4
Sacramento Kings
49-33
5
Golden State Warriors
46-36
6
Los Angeles Clippers
45-37
7
Memphis Grizzlies*
44-38
8
Oklahoma City Thunder*
43-39
9
Minnesota Timberwolves*
42-40
10
New Orleans Pelicans*
41-41
11
Dallas Mavericks
40-42
12
Utah Jazz
36-46
13
Houston Rockets
32-50
14
San Antonio Spurs
31-51
15
Portland Trail Blazers
25-57
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)
The West is loaded with quality teams. There are probably 11 teams good enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are only 10 spots (if you count the play-in tournament). The team I like to finish No. 1 in the standings is the defending champions. Denver has one of the best players in the game in Nikola Jokič, who’s won MVP two of the last three seasons. The Nuggets also didn’t lose many of their other key role players, either. I think the organization is in the middle of a special point in its history.
The second-best team in the West is arguably Phoenix, even though it moved on from Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Suns still have two of the best players in the NBA in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, and they traded for Beal. I also think, similar to Milwaukee, hiring a new head coach could make Phoenix better. Another team that I like is the Lakers. Remember, they got to the Western Conference Finals last year. I think they finally have a quality team to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I wanted to put Sacramento higher in my standings. The Kings have a nice young core, led by DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. I just like the other teams a little more.
I’m not going to count out Golden State as a championship contender. I just think the Warriors are aging, and the 2022 season feels like an outlier. I can’t bring myself to quit on the Clippers. They have a veteran roster, featuring Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. It’s going to be difficult for Memphis to finish in the top six in the West with Ja Morant suspended for 25 games. The Grizzlies are still a young, talented team that should find a way to make the postseason. Oklahoma City has been trending in the right direction in recent seasons. The Thunder have put together a solid young core and I think they’ll be a playoff team.
With Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota should be good enough to at least appear in the play-in tournament. I doubt the Timberwolves can finish in the top six spots, though. New Orleans has the potential to finish higher in the standings. It comes down to if Zion Williamson can stay healthy, which he hasn’t been able to do. I think Dallas is closer to the team that we saw in 2022, but I don’t trust Kyrie Irving. I have a difficult time seeing Utah competing for a playoff spot. Houston still has a ways to go, even though it should be improved under new head coach Ime Udoka. It’s rare for a rookie to immediately dominate the NBA, but I’m curious to see how Wembanyama performs for San Antonio. I don’t expect Portland to be that competitive after moving on from Lillard.
2024 NBA Finals
Denver vs. Milwaukee
Thesefeel like the best teams with the fewest question marks in both conferences. Denver and Milwaukee have two of the top five players in the game in Jokič and Antetokounmpo. They also have plenty of scoring depth, including quality secondary options in Lillard and Jamal Murray. If they manage to get home-court advantage, I have a difficult time seeing either of them not representing their conferences in the Finals.
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers during game two of the Western Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The team I like to win it all is the Nuggets. As I mentioned earlier, I think they’re in the middle of something special. Jokič and Murray are one of the best duos in the league, and both are starting to enter their primes. I also think Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are solid depth players. I don’t see any reason to think Denver will fall off this season.
“I hate her. In fact, the day you broke up with her I marked that down on my calendar as a day of rejoicement. I’m going to celebrate it with a cake with her face on it, but instead of eating it, we smash it.”
– Stainer, “She’s Out of My League” (2010)
Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
I was ready to believe that the conference realignment buzz was slowing down. I was under the impression that all that was left to determine was which school The American would add to replace SMU and the fate of Oregon State and Washington State.
However, the conference realignment buzz has cranked back up again, specifically in regards to Oregon State and Washington State.
The next hearing in the Oregon State/Washington State lawsuit against the Pac-12 is officially set for Nov 14. The hearing will be about who gets control of the Pac-12 while the parties prepare for trial. It could be pivotal for the fate of OSU/WSU.https://t.co/gxnZ4DDITN
A few weeks ago, those two schools filed a legal complaint against the Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, seeking a temporary restraining order to protect the future of the conference. The basis for this decision comes because Oregon State and Washington State believe that the 10 members that are leaving won’t have the conference’s best interest at heart, even going so far as to believe that those members will vote to dissolve the Pac-12. Basically, Oregon State and Washington State want full control of the conference’s future. A hearing on the matter is slated for Nov. 14.
This puts those two schools in a precarious situation. As it stands, the Pac-12 champion is going to have a guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff next year. The new format is going to have six guaranteed spots for conference champions (each of the Power 5 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion) and six wild cards. It’s important to know that the 6+6 format isn’t set after next season, and the the CFP management committee has yet to determine if the format will stay the same or change after the Pac-12 lost 10 of its members back in the summer. In fact, the committee punted on making a decision the issue recently.
Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jaden Robinson (4) breaks up a pass intended for Washington State Cougars wide receiver Josh Kelly (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon State and Washington State have a clear path to the CFP unless the format changes, even though they’re the only remaining members in the Pac-12. That will eventually change because the NCAA has a requirement that an FBS conference needs at least eight members, but there’s a two-year grace period. That means ESPN might have to pay about $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State, and potentially to schools like Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, etc.
Things could obviously change, though. The committee could eventually determine that the Pac-12 will lose its guaranteed spot in the CFP. The problem with that is that there’s no precedent for it. Remember, the old Big East/The American lost its guaranteed spot only because the BCS was scrapped and the CFP was formed, and the powers that be determined there wouldn’t be guaranteed spots in the new postseason format.
There’s also no technical explanation of the differences between the Power 5 and Group of 5 entities, which is a big problem for the committee. It’s likely not going to be able to explain it without referencing the colloquial expression “I know it when I see it” from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964.
The main difference between the different levels of competition in the NCAA (FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III) is mostly the number of scholarships. However, Power 5 and Group of 5 schools have the same number of football scholarships (85). That’s why those schools are considered to be on the same level and are told that they’re competing for the same national championship, even though we all know that’s not true.
The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is displayed during Big Ten media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
This is a significant development. I don’t expect ESPN to willingly pay $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State if the CFP format doesn’t change, and especially if the Pac-12 ever merges with the Mountain West and/or The American.
Oregon State and Washington State are in a pretty strong position, which is why I expect them to use it as leverage for ESPN to pull strings to get them in a Power 5 conference. The most like destination is the Big 12. Oregon State and Washington State are much better fits in that conference than the ACC, Big Ten, or the SEC. The two schools would also be quality additions to the Big 12. Oregon State has a solid football program right now and its baseball team has made it to Omaha, Neb., for the College World Series six times since 2005. Washington State has had a respectable football program for the last 30 years, and has its cool College Gameday tradition.
I think it’s more likely than not that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Big 12. It’ll be much cheaper for ESPN to broadcast their games in the conference at a reduced share (roughly $20 million per school) than it would be to give them a share of the CFP revenue. It would also benefit Oregon State and Washington State in the long-term future to join the Big 12, instead of potentially joining the American or Mountain West.
Another hurdle of a CFP format change: Washington St. & Oregon St. are exploring ways to operate as a 2-school league for 1-2 yrs via NCAA grace period.
CFP must answer: 1 Would their "champion" be eligible for an AQ? 2 Do they each get CFP P5 revenue?https://t.co/vbBNfqXbRy
I also wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN waited for the committee to come to a decision on the format for the expanded CFP. If the Pac-12 loses its guaranteed spot, it’ll cost ESPN even less money to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State games in either the Mountain West or The American. That could be problematic, though, because the committee won’t meet again for a while and the clock is ticking. Plus, in order to change the CFP format, there has to be a unanimous decision by the committee, and The American commissioner Mike Aresco has said he won’t vote to change the format. So, that might not be the best course of action.
There could be a lot more riding on this development than just which conference Oregon State and Washington State join. The committee has a huge decision to make these next few weeks when it comes to the CFP format. I don’t think anyone wants to see more substantial changes to the highest level of college football, but I can’t help but see the writing on the wall. It feels like this will be the first step in the Power 5 conferences separating from the Group of 5 conferences or vice versa, which will completely change the college football landscape forever.
There’s been so much tension between the two entities since the CFP was established. The Group of 5 schools only receive 20% of the revenue, and there have even been rumblings of them starting their own playoff format. Unless the committee decides to give more than one Group of 5 conference champion a guaranteed spot in the CFP, which I highly doubt will happen, I think there’s only going to be more division. Regardless of how the committee handles the Pac-12’s situation.
– Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” (2001)
ACC commissioner Jim Phillips speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at the Westin Hotel in Charlotte. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
I realize how late I am to write about the recent conference realignment news from the ACC, but I’ve been swamped with other projects. I finally found the time to write my thoughts.
Even though the news the last few weeks has been devoted to the Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12 (RIP), the ACC found itself in the news for the wrong reasons. Florida State has been vocal about how unhappy it is in the ACC, specifically with the conference’s current revenue distribution and media rights agreement. The Seminoles have even threatened to pay the $120 million exit fee to leave the conference — going so far as to work with a private equity firm to help with costs.
Everyone was so caught up with the exit fee that they ignored the biggest issue facing Florida State, which was the ACC’s grant of rights that doesn’t expire until 2036. The Seminoles were free to pay the exit fee and leave the conference, but it’d be pointless to do so if they couldn’t get out of the grant of rights. If Florida State had left the ACC without getting out of the grant of rights, it’d mean that any media revenue that the school generated would still go to the ACC for the next 13 years. That’s why I never believed the Seminoles were going to leave the conference any time soon.
The other issue was that there likely wasn’t a conference that would take Florida State right now. I doubt the Big Ten would be interested because the school isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities. Every member of the Big Ten is an AAU member except Nebraska, which was an AAU member at the time it joined the conference. I also think the Big 12 and SEC are content at 16 members…for now. It seems like the Seminoles are stuck.
I bring all that up because I don’t think Florida State is going to stop trying to get out of the ACC. The conference makes substantially less money in media revenue than the Big Ten and SEC. The Seminoles view themselves on the same competitive level as some of the institutions in those conferences. Florida State isn’t going to tolerate the ACC for much longer. If the Seminoles are looking elsewhere, it’s safe to assume that Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and even Notre Dame are doing the same.
In an effort to either put off the day that those schools leave the conference (or avoid it altogether), the ACC made the decision to expand west by adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU.
It’s final: ACC presidents have approved expansion to add Stanford, Cal and SMU, sources tell @YahooSports, ending a month-long saga into an issue that divided the league.
On the surface, I can see why the conference made this decision. Cal and Stanford are excellent academic institutions and are great fits in the ACC because of that. SMU also isn’t an academic slouch and gives the conference a footprint in Texas. Adding those three schools will also lead to $72 million in extra revenue from the TV networks. Cal and Stanford are going to take a significantly reduced share of revenue distribution, and SMU will forgo any revenue for almost a decade. That means more money in the pockets of the other ACC members, so it was a win for all parties.
The problem with adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU is that they don’t bring much to the table. When was the last time Cal was relevant in a revenue-generating sport? Probably since Aaron Rodgers or Marshawn Lynch played football there. Stanford has pretty much been irrelevant historically in revenue-generating sports, with the exception of the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw years in football. SMU has plenty of boosters with deep pockets, but that’s about all it brings to the table. The Mustangs haven’t even been able to win The American since joining the conference in 2013.
The other commonality with all three institutions is that, while located in large markets, none of them control their market. TCU has more of a footprint in Dallas than SMU, and even the Horned Frogs are likely behind Texas. For years, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 tried to establish a footprint in the San Francisco Bay Area, but to no avail.
I just don’t see how these additions are going to lead to anything good for the ACC. I don’t think Cal, Stanford, or SMU will compete in the conference. They’re also not geographic fits and travel costs will be through the roof. For the time being, it probably won’t mean much with those institutions accepting reduced shares of media revenue for the next few years. That’ll send a larger chunk of the metaphorical pie to Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina’s pockets, which should appease everyone in the short term.
However, when the western schools start receiving larger shares, that’s not going to make Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina very happy. Remember, those were the four ACC members that were vehemently opposed to adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. It wasn’t until a last-minute switch from NC State that the three western schools even had the votes to be accepted into the conference.
Adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU feels like the beginning of the end for the ACC. Once Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina leave for either the Big Ten or SEC, I can’t imagine the ACC survives. The conference doesn’t have much to offer outside of those four schools. The majority of the members that would be left behind are small, private institutions that aren’t big brands or that competitive in athletics. They’re just along for the ride to collect a $30 million check from media partners.
What I’m seeing develop in the ACC is awfully close to what we just saw happen in the Pac-12. For years, the ACC has placed too much of an emphasis on academics. That’s part of the reason why the conference has ranked dead last among Power 5 (4?) conferences in TV viewership for the last few years. The ACC also hasn’t wanted to be associated with conferences/institutions that don’t share the same academic values. That’s why it partnered with the Big Ten and Pac-12 in The Alliance and why the ACC explored a merger with the Pac-12 about a year ago.
Without big brands like Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina, I have a difficult time seeing any TV network paying top dollar to broadcast Boston College, Stanford, SMU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, etc. Keep in mind that the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will likely get the opportunity to re-negotiate new media rights agreements before the ACC can re-negotiate the one that it agreed to in 2016. The conference is going to have to think outside the box to find other revenue streams, which it has started to do, but I’m not convinced it’s going to be enough.
I don’t expect any schools to leave the ACC for at least a few years, and a lot can change in that time, but things don’t look good for the conference right now.
A view of the Big 12 conference champion trophy during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
All the talk by the pundits the last few years was how the Big 12 was on shaky ground and how the conference would fold by 2025.
I understand why everyone thought that way, though. As a fan of a Big 12 school since 2012, a cloud always seemed to hang over the conference. It lost four members (Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M) to other conferences in 2010 and 2011. Oklahoma and Texas seemed to be reluctant members of the Big 12 the last decade. The conference tried to expand in 2016 and the efforts were quashed, which cost its members the opportunity to make more money. The Big 12 also lacked its own TV network and was last in line to get a new media rights deal.
When the market for expansion from other conferences turned out to be lukewarm, the remaining eight Big 12 members stuck together in solidarity. That turned out to be the right decision.
I was often critical of Bob Bowlsby’s tenure as Big 12 commissioner, but he deserves a lot of credit for the conference being in its current state. He convinced the remaining members to stay together, and expanded to add BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Each of those schools are solid brands located in large markets and have had success in football.
Those actions by Bowlsby finally gave the Big 12 some semblance of stability after the departures of Oklahoma and Texas, but the upward trend would only be getting started.
Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark speaks to the press during Big 12 football media day at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
I was impressed with the conference’s decision to hire Brett Yormark to succeed Bowlsby as commissioner. He was an outside-the-box hire, with experience at NASCAR, Brooklyn Sports & Entertainment, and Roc Nation. He was also the type of innovative leader the Big 12 needed.
Yormark has been the conference’s commissioner for only a year and has already shown an incredible vision for the future. He announced the new Rucker Park program in New York (taking advantage of the Big 12’s recent dominance in college basketball), a partnership with the NFL to form Big 12 Pro Day (the first ever conference-wide pro day, replacing the traditional on-campus pro days), and the launch of Big 12 Mexico (an attempt to expand the conference’s brand internationally). The way he presented at Big 12 media day was reminiscent of Steve Jobs at Apple.
The most impressive part of Yormark’s year-long tenure is how he negotiated a new, respectable media rights deal (leapfrogging the Pac-12 by doing so) within three months of taking the job. That gave the Big 12 even more stability and allowed Yormark to pursue Colorado to return to the conference. That caused Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah to follow.
Seriously, who would’ve thought the Big 12 would be in this position two years ago? The conference now sits at 16 members, and each one seems to be on the same page and is aware of where it stands in the ever-changing landscape of college athletics. You could make the argument that the Big 12 is the best overall athletic conference from top to bottom in the revenue-generating sports. The Big 12 now seems poised to outlast both the Pac-12 and ACC and become the third major conference in college athletics.
Kansas Jayhawks forward David McCormack (33) and Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Bryson Williams (11) compete for the tip-off in the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
After the events of the last few weeks, I think everyone can see that the college football landscape is shifting toward either two super conferences or one super conference. I’m not convinced that the Big 12 will ever be able to pass the Big Ten or SEC in revenue and become one of those super conferences. However, I think Yormark has demonstrated that he’s seeing one, two, possibly three moves ahead of the other commissioners of the major conferences. I think he’s just getting started creating different revenue streams for the Big 12. We’ll see if that can keep the conference alive.
In terms of which of the major conferences are going to survive 10-20 years from now, it’s fair to assume that the Big 12 won’t be able to do so. It lacks the big brands like the ones in the Big Ten and SEC. My rebuttal against that is my point earlier that the Big 12 is now full of members that know where they stand in college athletics and are on the same page, which ought to create stability. Plus, the Big 12 has demonstrated time and time again in the last decade that it’ll find a way to endure. I wouldn’t be so quick to count the conference out.
That’s an issue for another day, though. In the meantime, Big 12 fans need to enjoy this deserving victory. The conference has been left for dead twice since 2010 and is now in a position of strength for the first time in decades.
A detailed view of the Pac-12 Conference logo at midfield at Allegiant Stadium before the 2021 Pac-12 Championship Game between the Oregon Ducks and the Utah Utes. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
We witnessed history in college athletics at the end of last week. Five members of the Pac-12 left the conference in a single day, which will be the unofficial death blow. It’s time to perform last rites, if no one has done so already.
It all started with Oregon and Washington — in the middle of a morning meeting about a potential grant of rights for the future of the Pac-12 — revealing that they were heading to the Big Ten. Then, it was announced later that day that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah were following Colorado to the Big 12.
I don’t know what’s to come for the remaining members — Cal, Oregon State, Stanford, and Washington State. There are rumors of a potential merger with the Mountain West. I’ve also read that the Big 12 might not be done and could target some of those schools to add to its inventory.
This kind of mass exodus from a single conference isn’t completely unprecedented. Just read up on what happened to the old Southwest Conference. I’ll admit that that was a little before my time, though.
I’m not the least bit surprised that it got to this point for the Pac-12. It seemed like it was trending in this direction for a while, which is why I’ve spent so much time writing about it in the past year. The only part of the Pac-12’s demise that truly surprised me is how quick it happened. Within a span of 10 days, the conference lost six of its remaining 10 members. History would show that the decision to switch conferences usually takes longer than just a few days.
The Pac-12’s roots go back more than 100 years when it was originally called the Pacific Coast Conference. So, how did it come to this for such a storied conference? I actually think the Pac-12’s demise has been imminent for a while.
Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff speaks during Pac-12 Media Day at Resorts World Las Vegas. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Pac-12’s downward trend began when it hired Larry Scott as commissioner back in 2009. Scott had previously worked for the Women’s Tennis Association and was the president and CEO of ATP Properties, which is a division of the Americans of Tennis Professionals.
His tenure actually got off to a good start. Within a year, the then Pac-10 expanded to add Colorado and Utah (becoming what is now the Pac-12). Then, Scott negotiated a lucrative media rights deal worth $3 billion with ESPN and FOX, and created the Pac-12 Network. Everything seemed to be trending up.
The problem is that the Pac-12 Network turned into a disaster. It struggled with distribution and wasn’t as financially viable as the Big Ten and SEC networks. That’s why many of the Pac-12’s current members are in financial trouble and looking for a bigger check from other conferences. The conference’s decision to not play a full season during the COVID-19 pandemic probably didn’t help matters either.
Scott also placed too much of an emphasis on Olympic sports, which shouldn’t surprise anyone given his tennis background. That’s really poor decisionmaking because revenue-generating sports drive media rights deals and athletic department budgets. When it was announced that he would no longer be the Pac-12’s commissioner in 2021, a lot of people, including myself, thought the conference could turn things around if it made the right hire.
Enter George Kliavkoff, who came to the Pac-12 from MGM Resorts International and had a background with a variety of TV networks. Hiring Kliavkoff felt like an outside-the-box way of thinking and I actually applauded the conference for doing it. However, you could argue that Kliavkoff has been even more disastrous than Scott.
Let’s start with “The Alliance.” Remember that? Within a few months of Kliavkoff’s tenure as Pac-12 commissioner, he “joined forces” with the ACC and Big Ten in response to the SEC adding Oklahoma and Texas. “The Alliance” was originally intended to be a collaborative approach to further evolve college athletics and scheduling. Kliavkoff also gave us this gem of a quote in regards to how “The Alliance” would prevent conferences from poaching members of another conference, “There’s no signed contract. There’s an agreement among three gentlemen. There’s a commitment between 41 presidents and chancellors and 41 athletic directors to do what we say we’re going to do…there’s no signed contract and there doesn’t need to be.”
It should be noted that UCLA and USC announced that they were headed to the Big Ten within a year of that quote. After their departures, Kliavkoff turned to ACC commissioner Jim Phillips about a potential merger with a conference championship in Las Vegas. That ended up going nowhere.
Kliavkoff also butchered the Pac-12’s media rights negotiations. He decided to pass on re-upping with ESPN and FOX to take the bidding to the open market, where he asked for $50 million per school. I understand that it’s a negotiation and you start high and meet in the middle, but that was a huge misstep. Not only was the Pac-12 not worth that amount of money without UCLA and USC, but that also allowed the Big 12 to leapfrog the Pac-12 to a new media rights deal. That gave the Big 12 the stability and exposure that schools like Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah wanted.
Now, I admit that I gave Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 the benefit of the doubt during its media rights negotiations. I thought the conference was valuable because it was the only premier college football in the Mountain and Pacific time zones. I also thought it was smart to embrace streaming services because I think those are the future of media rights deals. Kliavkoff either wasn’t able to sell the Pac-12 to these streaming services or they just weren’t interested in paying a premium. Somehow, though, he was able to convince the members of the conference to be patient as they waited over a year for a new media rights deal.
Another misstep by Kliavkoff came at Pac-12 media day when he got to the podium and said he wouldn’t reveal a media rights deal in order to keep the attention on football. That implied he had a deal in the works, which he later backtracked and said to reporters “You’re reading too much into that” when asked follow-up questions. He also said, “The longer we wait for the media deal, the better our options get.”
I remember reading those quotes by Kliavkoff and thinking, “Who are you kidding, dude?” The latter of the two quotes just screamed incompetence because that’s not how negotiating works. That moment was the end of the line for Colorado, which bolted for the Big 12 the next week. Colorado’s departure also forced Kliavkoff to present the numbers of the media rights deal he’d been sitting on from Apple to the remaining Pac-12 members, which wasn’t on par with the Big 12’s deal with ESPN and FOX ($31.7 million per school).
So, Scott did nothing to further elevate the Pac-12’s brand under his tenure and Kliavkoff constantly had egg land on his face. It’s been an embarrassing display of leadership by both men.
Oregon Ducks running back Noah Whittington (22) picks up a first down during the first half as he is tackled by Washington Huskies cornerback Mishael Powell (23) at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Something else to remember about conference realignment is that the athletic directors, conferences, and TV networks don’t have full control of the situation. Ultimately, it comes down to the presidents, chancellors, and governing boards of universities to decide whether or not to leave a conference to join another one. While Scott and Kliavkoff deserve the blame for the current state of the Pac-12, it’s important to remember how the administrations of the conference’s institutions mishandled several situations in recent decades (yes, decades).
There have been several times when the TV networks told the Pac-12 what would be in its best interest and the conference chose not to do it. The Pac-12 frequently overlooked BYU when it came to expansion, which is why the school is currently a member of the Big 12. I can’t state enough how adding BYU likely saved the Big 12 from extinction a few years ago, while also lining the conference’s pockets because the school is a great brand with a large following. The Pac-12 sure could’ve used a brand like BYU in its recent media rights negotiations.
The Pac-12 also had the chance to destroy the Big 12 not only once, but twice, in the span of 11 years. After Colorado and Nebraska left the Big 12 in 2010, there was reportedly an agreement in place that would allow Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech to join the Pac-12. That would’ve been a death blow to the Big 12. Instead, Pac-12 institutions quashed it. That allowed the Big 12 to stay alive and add TCU and West Virginia. The Pac-12 sure could’ve used those Big 12 schools in its recent media rights negotiations.
In 2021, there were talks of a merger between the Big 12 and Pac-12. Once again, Pac-12 institutions quashed it. That allowed the Big 12 to stay together and add BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Again, the Pac-12 sure could’ve used those Big 12 schools in its recent media rights negotiations.
So, why did Pac-12 institutions make so many terrible decisions in the last 11 years? I think it comes down to a combination of arrogance and hubris, along with cultural and political differences. Plus, I think the whole “conference of champions” mindset gave Pac-12 members an inflated sense of self-worth.
I don’t think Pac-12 institutions wanted to be associated with Big 12 institutions. For the most part, Pac-12 schools have very high academic standards and are located in areas of the country with left-leaning political ideologies. That’s not the case with the Big 12. The members of that conference don’t have high academic standards and are located in areas with right-leaning political ideologies. I also don’t think the Pac-12 wanted anything to do with religious-affiliated schools like Baylor, BYU, and TCU.
Now, I don’t like the term “coastal elite” because I think it’s used too much. However, I think it applies to the Pac-12. The institutions of that conference didn’t want anything to do with the political and cultural aspects of Middle America and the Big 12. If it did, the Big 12 would’ve folded back in 2010 or in 2021.
There’s a reason why the Pac-12 wanted to be aligned with the ACC and Big Ten when its back was against the wall. Those two conferences have high academic standards and have common political ideologies. In the past few weeks, Pac-12 fanbases also coined the term “truck stop conference” when referring to the Big 12.
Do you see my point? That kind of “coastal elite” attitude is why the Pac-12 is currently in this situation, along with terrible leadership from the conference and its institutions. I don’t think most college football fans, including the TV networks, wanted the Pac-12 to end. It’s hard for me to feel sorry for the conference, though, when it made the wrong decision time and time again. Well, the chickens have come home to roost and it’s fitting that the Big 12 is getting the last laugh.
“I’m gonna go see Dr. Finklestein and I’m gonna tell him we have a whole new bag of issues. We can forget about mom for a while.”
– Jeremy Grey, “Wedding Crashers” (2005)
Colorado Buffaloes mascot Ralphie is run on tp Folsom Field before the game against the USC Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The floodgates have now opened.
On Thursday, Colorado officially announced that it was leaving the Pac-12 to return to the Big 12, where it was a member for 62 years dating back to the old Big Eight days. Unless you live under a rock, this news shouldn’t come as a surprise.
OFFICIAL: Colorado is heading back to the Big 12 Conference 🦬
The Pac-12 has been trying to negotiate a new media rights deal for over a year and is now less than a year away from the conference’s current deal expiring. There’s also zero indication that the conference has a deal in place or even has any numbers on a potential deal. If the Pac-12 had the framework of a deal that was either more lucrative than the Big 12’s new deal or at least on par with it, it’d be shouting it from the top of the Rocky Mountains. Guess what? It’s not.
The lack of future stability and exposure of the Pac-12 is precisely why the Buffaloes are returning to the Big 12. When the Big 12 leapfrogged the Pac-12 in getting a new media rights deal, I wrote that this could be likely to happen.
General view of the Colorado Buffaloes mascot in the middle of Folsom Field before the game against the California Golden Bears. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
While Colorado isn’t one of the top brands in college athletics, its return to the Big 12 is significant news. I think the remaining Pac-12 members have been bamboozled by commissioner George Kliavkoff, and his delusions of grandeur, that the conference was going to get a new media rights deal that was on par with the Big Ten’s new deal.
I’ve tried to give the Pac-12 the benefit of the doubt, but I don’t see how it’s able to salvage this situation and prevent its remaining attractive members — Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Utah, and Washington — from jumping ship. With Colorado’s departure, the Pac-12 now has zero leverage in its media rights negotiations. No media company or streaming service is going to pay top dollar for an uncertain product. They’re going to want specifics on which member institutions are committed to the Pac-12, and I highly doubt the conference can provide that information at this point.
The Pac-12 can try to expand, but its options are limited. San Diego State tried to get the process started last month, but was unsuccessful. Now, the Aztecs have a $34 million buyout if it wants to leave the Mountain West, which I doubt they can afford. I’m not familiar with SMU’s buyout with the American, so I don’t know if that’s a legitimate option or not. Even if the Mustangs are a legitimate option, do they move the needle enough to create more revenue for a media rights deal AND do they want to join the Pac-12 given its uncertainty? I highly doubt it.
The statement from the Pac-12 on Thursday night in response to Colorado’s announcement didn’t convince me that things are going to get better either.
I don’t think the Big 12 is done expanding. It’s going to make a strong push to add more schools from the Pac-12, especially given the pro rata clause from ESPN. That clause guarantees that when the Big 12 adds a current Power 5 school, that school automatically gets a full revenue share of the Big 12’s media rights deal ($31.7 million). That’s significant news and an incredible ace in the hole for the Big 12.
Do people really think Colorado was the only member of the Pac-12 that was concerned about the future stability and exposure of the conference? No chance. I believe more schools are going to take the guaranteed paycheck from the Big 12 (or potentially one of the other Power 5 conferences), and it shouldn’t come as a surprise when it happens.
The only question I have is how many Pac-12 members follow Colorado out the door in the next few weeks.
“I never realized that the study of nature could advance the science of naval warfare.”
– Capt. Jack Aubrey, “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” (2003)
Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron (37) gets ready for a face-off during the first period in game five of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Florida Panthers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
The wheel of change has turned once again.
On Tuesday, Boston captain and future Hall of Famer Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement. That means that three of my favorite teams (Boston, Green Bay, and West Virginia University) have each lost legends in less than six months.
Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers runs out on to the field as he is announced before a game against Detroit at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Mandatory credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
It all started back in March when future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers announced his intention to play for the New York Jets in 2023. He wasn’t officially traded until a little over a month later. Even though I’ve made it clear in the past that I wanted Green Bay to trade Rodgers, it doesn’t mean that it didn’t take time to process the realization that the Rodgers era was officially over.
He’d been the franchise quarterback with the Packers since 2008, won a Super Bowl, and led the team to several postseason appearances. It wasn’t going to be easy for me to just move on quickly. Little did I know that that would be just the tip of the iceberg for me when it comes to change.
West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins yells to his team during a play against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second half at Lloyd Noble Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
A little over 50 days after Rodgers was traded to the Jets, the news broke that Hall of Fame men’s basketball head coach Bob Huggins resigned from WVU following a DUI arrest. He meant so much to WVU fans. Huggins wasn’t only from the state and a WVU alumnus, but he won over 300 games at WVU and led the program to 10 NCAA tournament appearances in 16 seasons, including an appearance in the Final Four in 2010.
Huggins’ departure was arguably even more difficult to process because it was so abrupt and unexpected. It was also understandable because the university didn’t have much of a choice since he’d been in trouble once already this offseason. So, I felt a plethora of emotions when trying to process that Huggins wouldn’t coach WVU anymore. Did the change stop there, though? Nope.
Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron (37) leaves the ice after the game against the Carolina Hurricanes in game seven of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
The news of Bergeron’s retirement surprised me more than it should have since he considered it last year. I expected Bergeron to be back with Boston for at least one more season, especially with the centennial season coming up. He finished his career in the top 10 in Bruins history in games played, goals, and assists. Bergeron was also Boston’s de facto captain for the last 15 years, a six-time Selke Trophy winner (awarded to the best defensive forward), and a Stanley Cup champion.
He meant so much to the organizations and is one of the reasons why the team is now a perennial playoff team. It’s a shame that the Bruins couldn’t win another Stanley Cup with him. I was just beginning to cope with getting eliminated in the first round of the postseason after a historic regular season and then I saw this news. This is going to take some time process.
A general view of TD Garden during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Philadelphia Flyers. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
How is it possible for one sports fan to endure this much change in a little over four months? I understand that change is a part of life, but it feels like it should be statistically impossible to lose that many Hall of Fame-caliber contributors in such a short amount of time. This is why being a sports fan can be just as heartbreaking as it can be joyful.
I firmly believe that turning the page in sports can feel like a breath of fresh air, but after this much change I feel like I’m trying to catch my breath at high altitude. I actually had a co-worker tell me recently that I don’t handle change well, so it makes sense that I go through something like this. The good news is that I shouldn’t lose another legend any time soon that meant as much to me as Rodgers, Huggins, and Bergeron.
All Things Sports from a Millennial 