2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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Don’t rule out Oregon State, Washington State joining the Big 12 and changing the college football landscape forever

Movie quote of the day:

“I hate her. In fact, the day you broke up with her I marked that down on my calendar as a day of rejoicement. I’m going to celebrate it with a cake with her face on it, but instead of eating it, we smash it.”

– Stainer, “She’s Out of My League” (2010)

Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

I was ready to believe that the conference realignment buzz was slowing down. I was under the impression that all that was left to determine was which school The American would add to replace SMU and the fate of Oregon State and Washington State.

However, the conference realignment buzz has cranked back up again, specifically in regards to Oregon State and Washington State. 

The next hearing in the Oregon State/Washington State lawsuit against the Pac-12 is officially set for Nov 14. The hearing will be about who gets control of the Pac-12 while the parties prepare for trial. It could be pivotal for the fate of OSU/WSU.https://t.co/gxnZ4DDITN

— Amanda Christovich (@achristovichh) September 29, 2023

A few weeks ago, those two schools filed a legal complaint against the Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, seeking a temporary restraining order to protect the future of the conference. The basis for this decision comes because Oregon State and Washington State believe that the 10 members that are leaving won’t have the conference’s best interest at heart, even going so far as to believe that those members will vote to dissolve the Pac-12. Basically, Oregon State and Washington State want full control of the conference’s future. A hearing on the matter is slated for Nov. 14. 

This puts those two schools in a precarious situation. As it stands, the Pac-12 champion is going to have a guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff next year. The new format is going to have six guaranteed spots for conference champions (each of the Power 5 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion) and six wild cards. It’s important to know that the 6+6 format isn’t set after next season, and the the CFP management committee has yet to determine if the format will stay the same or change after the Pac-12 lost 10 of its members back in the summer. In fact, the committee punted on making a decision the issue recently. 

Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jaden Robinson (4) breaks up a pass intended for Washington State Cougars wide receiver Josh Kelly (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State and Washington State have a clear path to the CFP unless the format changes, even though they’re the only remaining members in the Pac-12. That will eventually change because the NCAA has a requirement that an FBS conference needs at least eight members, but there’s a two-year grace period. That means ESPN might have to pay about $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State, and potentially to schools like Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, etc. 

Things could obviously change, though. The committee could eventually determine that the Pac-12 will lose its guaranteed spot in the CFP. The problem with that is that there’s no precedent for it. Remember, the old Big East/The American lost its guaranteed spot only because the BCS was scrapped and the CFP was formed, and the powers that be determined there wouldn’t be guaranteed spots in the new postseason format.

There’s also no technical explanation of the differences between the Power 5 and Group of 5 entities, which is a big problem for the committee. It’s likely not going to be able to explain it without referencing the colloquial expression “I know it when I see it” from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964.

The main difference between the different levels of competition in the NCAA (FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III) is mostly the number of scholarships. However, Power 5 and Group of 5 schools have the same number of football scholarships (85). That’s why those schools are considered to be on the same level and are told that they’re competing for the same national championship, even though we all know that’s not true. 

The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is displayed during Big Ten media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This is a significant development. I don’t expect ESPN to willingly pay $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State if the CFP format doesn’t change, and especially if the Pac-12 ever merges with the Mountain West and/or The American.

Oregon State and Washington State are in a pretty strong position, which is why I expect them to use it as leverage for ESPN to pull strings to get them in a Power 5 conference. The most like destination is the Big 12. Oregon State and Washington State are much better fits in that conference than the ACC, Big Ten, or the SEC. The two schools would also be quality additions to the Big 12. Oregon State has a solid football program right now and its baseball team has made it to Omaha, Neb., for the College World Series six times since 2005. Washington State has had a respectable football program for the last 30 years, and has its cool College Gameday tradition.

I think it’s more likely than not that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Big 12. It’ll be much cheaper for ESPN to broadcast their games in the conference at a reduced share (roughly $20 million per school) than it would be to give them a share of the CFP revenue. It would also benefit Oregon State and Washington State in the long-term future to join the Big 12, instead of potentially joining the American or Mountain West.

Another hurdle of a CFP format change: Washington St. & Oregon St. are exploring ways to operate as a 2-school league for 1-2 yrs via NCAA grace period.

CFP must answer:
1 Would their "champion" be eligible for an AQ?
2 Do they each get CFP P5 revenue?https://t.co/vbBNfqXbRy

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 27, 2023

I also wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN waited for the committee to come to a decision on the format for the expanded CFP. If the Pac-12 loses its guaranteed spot, it’ll cost ESPN even less money to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State games in either the Mountain West or The American. That could be problematic, though, because the committee won’t meet again for a while and the clock is ticking. Plus, in order to change the CFP format, there has to be a unanimous decision by the committee, and The American commissioner Mike Aresco has said he won’t vote to change the format. So, that might not be the best course of action.

There could be a lot more riding on this development than just which conference Oregon State and Washington State join. The committee has a huge decision to make these next few weeks when it comes to the CFP format. I don’t think anyone wants to see more substantial changes to the highest level of college football, but I can’t help but see the writing on the wall. It feels like this will be the first step in the Power 5 conferences separating from the Group of 5 conferences or vice versa, which will completely change the college football landscape forever.

There’s been so much tension between the two entities since the CFP was established. The Group of 5 schools only receive 20% of the revenue, and there have even been rumblings of them starting their own playoff format. Unless the committee decides to give more than one Group of 5 conference champion a guaranteed spot in the CFP, which I highly doubt will happen, I think there’s only going to be more division. Regardless of how the committee handles the Pac-12’s situation.

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Adding Cal, Stanford, SMU isn’t going to save the ACC

Movie quote of the day:

“If in doubt, Meriadoc, always follow your nose.”

– Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” (2001)

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at the Westin Hotel in Charlotte. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

I realize how late I am to write about the recent conference realignment news from the ACC, but I’ve been swamped with other projects. I finally found the time to write my thoughts. 

Even though the news the last few weeks has been devoted to the Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12 (RIP), the ACC found itself in the news for the wrong reasons. Florida State has been vocal about how unhappy it is in the ACC, specifically with the conference’s current revenue distribution and media rights agreement. The Seminoles have even threatened to pay the $120 million exit fee to leave the conference — going so far as to work with a private equity firm to help with costs.

Everyone was so caught up with the exit fee that they ignored the biggest issue facing Florida State, which was the ACC’s grant of rights that doesn’t expire until 2036. The Seminoles were free to pay the exit fee and leave the conference, but it’d be pointless to do so if they couldn’t get out of the grant of rights. If Florida State had left the ACC without getting out of the grant of rights, it’d mean that any media revenue that the school generated would still go to the ACC for the next 13 years. That’s why I never believed the Seminoles were going to leave the conference any time soon. 

The other issue was that there likely wasn’t a conference that would take Florida State right now. I doubt the Big Ten would be interested because the school isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities. Every member of the Big Ten is an AAU member except Nebraska, which was an AAU member at the time it joined the conference. I also think the Big 12 and SEC are content at 16 members…for now. It seems like the Seminoles are stuck.

I bring all that up because I don’t think Florida State is going to stop trying to get out of the ACC. The conference makes substantially less money in media revenue than the Big Ten and SEC. The Seminoles view themselves on the same competitive level as some of the institutions in those conferences. Florida State isn’t going to tolerate the ACC for much longer. If the Seminoles are looking elsewhere, it’s safe to assume that Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and even Notre Dame are doing the same. 

In an effort to either put off the day that those schools leave the conference (or avoid it altogether), the ACC made the decision to expand west by adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. 

It’s final: ACC presidents have approved expansion to add Stanford, Cal and SMU, sources tell @YahooSports, ending a month-long saga into an issue that divided the league.

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 1, 2023

On the surface, I can see why the conference made this decision. Cal and Stanford are excellent academic institutions and are great fits in the ACC because of that. SMU also isn’t an academic slouch and gives the conference a footprint in Texas. Adding those three schools will also lead to $72 million in extra revenue from the TV networks. Cal and Stanford are going to take a significantly reduced share of revenue distribution, and SMU will forgo any revenue for almost a decade. That means more money in the pockets of the other ACC members, so it was a win for all parties. 

The problem with adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU is that they don’t bring much to the table. When was the last time Cal was relevant in a revenue-generating sport? Probably since Aaron Rodgers or Marshawn Lynch played football there. Stanford has pretty much been irrelevant historically in revenue-generating sports, with the exception of the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw years in football. SMU has plenty of boosters with deep pockets, but that’s about all it brings to the table. The Mustangs haven’t even been able to win The American since joining the conference in 2013. 

The other commonality with all three institutions is that, while located in large markets, none of them control their market. TCU has more of a footprint in Dallas than SMU, and even the Horned Frogs are likely behind Texas. For years, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 tried to establish a footprint in the San Francisco Bay Area, but to no avail. 

I just don’t see how these additions are going to lead to anything good for the ACC. I don’t think Cal, Stanford, or SMU will compete in the conference. They’re also not geographic fits and travel costs will be through the roof. For the time being, it probably won’t mean much with those institutions accepting reduced shares of media revenue for the next few years. That’ll send a larger chunk of the metaphorical pie to Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina’s pockets, which should appease everyone in the short term. 

However, when the western schools start receiving larger shares, that’s not going to make Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina very happy. Remember, those were the four ACC members that were vehemently opposed to adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. It wasn’t until a last-minute switch from NC State that the three western schools even had the votes to be accepted into the conference. 

This circus will be fun to watch. #FSU #Clemson #UNC #ACC #PAC12 #Cal #Stanford #SMU #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/LgVQhVXTmI

— Petey Parks (@Football_Dude84) September 1, 2023

Adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU feels like the beginning of the end for the ACC. Once Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina leave for either the Big Ten or SEC, I can’t imagine the ACC survives. The conference doesn’t have much to offer outside of those four schools. The majority of the members that would be left behind are small, private institutions that aren’t big brands or that competitive in athletics. They’re just along for the ride to collect a $30 million check from media partners.

What I’m seeing develop in the ACC is awfully close to what we just saw happen in the Pac-12. For years, the ACC has placed too much of an emphasis on academics. That’s part of the reason why the conference has ranked dead last among Power 5 (4?) conferences in TV viewership for the last few years. The ACC also hasn’t wanted to be associated with conferences/institutions that don’t share the same academic values. That’s why it partnered with the Big Ten and Pac-12 in The Alliance and why the ACC explored a merger with the Pac-12 about a year ago.

Without big brands like Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina, I have a difficult time seeing any TV network paying top dollar to broadcast Boston College, Stanford, SMU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, etc. Keep in mind that the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will likely get the opportunity to re-negotiate new media rights agreements before the ACC can re-negotiate the one that it agreed to in 2016. The conference is going to have to think outside the box to find other revenue streams, which it has started to do, but I’m not convinced it’s going to be enough.

I don’t expect any schools to leave the ACC for at least a few years, and a lot can change in that time, but things don’t look good for the conference right now.

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2023 college football season predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Musn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.”

– Eames, “Inception” (2010)

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart holds the trophy after winning the CFP national championship game against the TCU Horned Frogs at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure I’d be prepared to make my college football season predictions if it wasn’t for the recent conference realignment news. Truthfully, this season has snuck up on me. The news of Oregon and Washington heading to the Big Ten, and Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah going to the Big 12, got the juices flowing and made me eager for the start of the season. I’ve been hustling to get my research done for all Power 5 programs, and the top Group of 5 programs.  

The wait is finally over, though, because Week 1 technically starts this weekend. Even though the matchups aren’t particularly intriguing (aside from Notre Dame facing Navy in Ireland and Ohio playing San Diego State), I wanted to get my predictions finalized before any games were played. I didn’t want any of the results from this weekend to impact my outlook.

My immediate impression for this season is that there are some excellent storylines: Georgia is trying to become the first program to win three-consecutive national championships since Minnesota did it between 1934-36; the Pac-12 is arguably the most compelling Power 5 conference in the wake of its demise; Texas could really be back; Ohio State is trying to get back to being the top dog in the Big Ten; and many others. There’s also a lot of uncertainty at the top of college football, with several programs breaking in new starting quarterbacks.

Remember, we’ve also had plenty of conference realignment beginning this year at both the Power 5 and Group of 5 levels: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now in the Big 12; Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA joined the American; and Liberty, Jacksonville State, New Mexico State, and Sam Houston State joined the Conference USA. I don’t think we’re done with conference realignment either because we still haven’t seen the ramifications of the Pac-12’s demise trickle down to the Group of 5 level. 

There shouldn’t be any shortage of entertainment this season. 

Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners

Award	Winner
Heisman (most outstanding player)	QB Caleb Williams, USC
Maxwell (best player)	Caleb Williams, USC
Davey O’Brien (best quarterback)	Caleb Williams, USC
Doak Walker (best running back)	Blake Corum, Michigan
Fred Biletnikoff (best wide receiver)	Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Bronko Nagurski (defensive player of the year)	Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
Outland (best lineman)	T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
Butkus (best linebacker)	Jeremiah Trotter, Clemson
Jim Thorpe (best defensive back)	CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
Lou Groza (best kicker)	Ryan Coe, North Carolina

Price’s predicted major award winners

I know, I know, no player has won the Heisman Trophy twice since Archie Griffin won it in 1974 and 1975. My readers know that I hate picking chalk, but I think Williams is due to make history this season. Every quarterback in Lincoln Riley’s system has either put up better numbers each year in the system or the best numbers of their college careers. Williams is entering his third year in Riley’s system, dating back to their time at Oklahoma. The last quarterback we saw do that was Baker Mayfield, who won the Heisman in that third year. Williams is also a heavy favorite to win the award.

Michigan has relied heavily on its run game the last two seasons, with its top two rushers accounting for a combined 801 carries. I expect the same to happen this season. Remember, Corum rushed for almost 1,500 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. The only way he might not win the Doak Walker Award is if Michigan manages his workload and gives his backup the same amount of carries. There might be a new quarterback at Ohio State, but I don’t think that’s going to prevent Harrison Jr. from winning the Biletnikoff Award. He’s regarded as the best wide receiver prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft and I think the Ohio State coaching staff is going to find ways to get him the ball.

I had a difficult time giving the Outland Trophy to anyone but Fashanu. Not only is he expected to be the best offensive lineman in the country, but he’s going to pave the way for what should be an excellent rushing attack for Penn State. I struggled with the Lou Groza Award, but I eventually landed on Coe. North Carolina ought to have one of the best offenses in the country and should move the ball with ease, so Coe should see plenty of kicking opportunities.

As for the Nagurski Trophy, I think Verse should be considered the favorite. He’s arguably the best pass rusher in college football after accumulating nine sacks and 17 tackles for loss last season. I couldn’t think of any linebackers with a better chance of winning the Butkus Award than Trotter. He showed a lot of promise last year and I expect him to improve. The best defensive back in the country is arguably McKinstry, so he had to be my pick to win the Jim Thorpe Award. When it comes to defensive backs, I have a lot of trust in Nick Saban to develop them.

Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) throws a pass during the first half of the 2022 Orange Bowl against the Tennessee Volunteers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

ACC

	Team	Record
1	Clemson*	11-2 (7-1)
2	Florida State	10-3 (7-1)
3	North Carolina	10-2 (6-2)
4	Duke	9-3 (5-3)
5	Miami	8-4 (5-3)
6	Louisville	7-5 (5-3)
7	Syracuse	7-5 (4-4)
8	NC State	7-5 (4-4)
9	Pitt	6-6 (4-4)
10	Virginia Tech	7-5 (3-5)
11	Wake Forest	5-7 (3-5)
12	Georgia Tech	4-8 (2-6)
13	Boston College	5-7 (1-7)
14	Virginia	2-10 (0-8)

Price’s ACC projections (* conference championship winner)

It actually wasn’t as easy to pick Clemson to win the ACC this season as opposed to previous seasons. There’s a lot of uncertainty facing the Tigers. Mainly, how much will Cade Klubnik improve as a quarterback and whether he’ll mesh with new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. However, Clemson should still have the most talented team in the conference. The Tigers also benefit from playing Florida State, North Carolina, and Notre Dame at home. I’m not convinced Clemson can make the College Football Playoff, but a trip to the Orange Bowl is a reasonable expectation. 

If any team is going to beat out Clemson to win the ACC, I think it’s Florida State. The Seminoles are returning a lot of talent from a team that won 10 games last year. However, I’m not ready to believe that head coach Mike Norvell has the program ready to take the next step. North Carolina is certainly talented enough to win the conference, but I have reservations about its defense, which allowed 31.3 points per game last year against FBS competition. Having Drake Maye at quarterback will put the Tar Heels in a good spot to win a lot of games, though. 

I’m going out on a limb and picking Duke to improve from last year, even though its schedule is going to be incredibly difficult. I think head coach Mike Elko has the Blue Devils heading in the right direction. We’re going to find out just how good of a coach Mario Cristobal is, but there’s too much talent on Miami’s roster for the team to be as bad as it was last year. Even though I’m high on Jeff Brohm as a head coach, I think Louisville’s quarterback situation could hold the team back. I’m not convinced that Syracuse is going to improve much after sneaking up on the ACC last year.

I don’t know how good NC State or Virginia Tech are going to be, but both teams have manageable non-conference schedules. I think that’ll propel them to bowl eligibility. This could be a long season for Pitt. The Panthers have a brutal non-conference schedule and are losing a lot of production from last year. I think Pat Narduzzi deserves the benefit of the doubt, though. Dave Clawson and Wake Forest will likely have a difficult time getting to an eighth-straight bowl game without quarterback Sam Hartman.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12

	Team	Record
1	Texas*	11-2 (8-1)
2	Texas Tech	9-4 (7-2)
3	Kansas State	9-3 (6-3)
4	Oklahoma	9-3 (6-3)
5	TCU	8-4 (5-4)
6	UCF	7-5 (5-4)
7	Baylor	7-5 (5-4)
8	Oklahoma State	8-4 (5-4)
9	Kansas	7-5 (4-5)
10	West Virginia	6-6 (4-5)
11	BYU	5-7 (3-6)
12	Houston	4-8 (2-7)
13	Cincinnati	4-8 (2-7)
14	Iowa State	3-9 (1-8)

Price’s Big 12 projections (* conference championship winner)

I realize that college football fans are fatigued with Texas. Time and time again the Longhorns have entered the season with so much hype only to fall on their faces by the end. However, I think this team is different. Steve Sarkisian has done an excellent job assembling talent. I think Texas has the right pieces both on the perimeter and in the trenches to make a run at the Big 12 championship. I also like the options the Longhorns have at quarterback in Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning. If either of them play at a high level, Texas has a chance to make the Playoff. 

I’ve been talking myself into Texas Tech recently. The Red Raiders are returning a lot of production from last year. They also benefit from playing Kansas State and TCU at home. This will likely be Texas Tech’s best chance to win the Big 12 since the Mike Leach era. I expect Kansas State to be near the top of the conference despite the departure of running back Deuce Vaughn. The Wildcats might have the best offensive line and defensive line combination in the Big 12, besides Texas. Quarterback Will Howard improved a lot last year, too. Kansas State has a good chance to defend the conference title. 

I expect Oklahoma to show improvement in Brent Venables’ second season. The Sooners have too much talent to finish below .500 again. TCU likely takes a step back (maybe even further than I think) after so much going its way last year and losing a lot of production from that team. UCF will have its growing pains in Year 1 in the Big 12. The Knights are a talented team and Gus Malzahn is a proven head coach, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor finishes lower than seventh, but I’m banking on Dave Aranda to turn things around. I’m very uncertain about Oklahoma State, but its non-conference schedule is manageable. Mike Gundy also seems to surprise everyone when expectations are low.

Kansas won’t be able to surprise anyone this year. However, I doubt the Jayhawks regress much. Jalon Daniels is a very underrated quarterback and Kansas is returning a lot of production from last year. I’m more optimistic about West Virginia than I should be, even though I have no trust in Neal Brown and his staff. The Mountaineers are returning several key players in the trenches and have a good backfield. I feel like that should be enough to get WVU to bowl eligibility. After the recent news out of the program, I’ll be very surprised if Iowa State doesn’t finish near the bottom of the Big 12.

Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) stiff arms Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back Malcolm Hartzog (13) in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten

	East Division	Record	West Division	Record
1	Michigan*	12-1 (8-1)	Wisconsin	10-3 (7-2)
2	Ohio State	11-1 (8-1)	Iowa	9-3 (6-3)
3	Penn State	10-2 (7-2)	Minnesota	7-5 (5-4)
4	Maryland	8-4 (5-4)	Illinois	6-6 (4-5)
5	Michigan State	6-6 (4-5)	Nebraska	6-6 (4-5)
6	Indiana	3-9 (1-8)	Purdue	5-7 (3-6)
7	Rutgers	3-9 (1-8)	Northwestern	2-10 (0-9)

Price’s Big Ten projections (* conference championship winner)

Michigan has proven the last two seasons that it runs the Big Ten. I see no reason to think otherwise this season. The Wolverines are returning a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy and leading rusher Corum. They also have the right pieces in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Michigan benefits from playing Ohio State at home, too. I’m not convinced that the Wolverines will finish the regular season undefeated like last year, but I expect them to win the Big Ten and be in the Playoff conversation for a third-straight season. 

Ohio State has what it takes to win the Big Ten from a talent standpoint. I’m not sure I trust Ryan Day to do it, though. The Buckeyes have been passed over by Michigan recently. Plus, Ohio State is breaking in a new quarterback and I don’t know what to expect. The next team that I think can win the Big Ten is Penn State. This could be the best collection of talent the Nittany Lions have had in recent years. Penn State is in great shape in the trenches, backfield, and secondary. My concern with the Nittany Lions is their uncertainty at the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

I’m expecting Luke Fickell to have a smooth transition in his first year at Wisconsin. There will be growing pains, but Fickell brought in a nice haul of players from the transfer portal. The Badgers also benefit from being in the West division. Maryland actually has some talent on its roster, but it’s in one of the most difficult divisions in college football. The Terrapins should consider it a success if they get to eight wins. I’m not sure how good Iowa or Minnesota will be this season, but their schedules are manageable. 

I’m tired of Bret Bielema proving me wrong every year, which is why I have Illinois getting to bowl eligibility. I’m very curious to see how much success Matt Rhule has in his first year at Nebraska. I think he’s inheriting some talent and he brought in a good transfer portal class. Mel Tucker likely has to get Michigan State to bowl eligibility to have a chance to keep his job. That’s not out of the question since the Spartans face Washington, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, and Penn State all at home. I expect Purdue to struggle in Ryan Walters’ first season as head coach. 

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts to a touchdown against the Utah Utes in the first quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 (RIP)

	Team	Record
1	USC*	11-2 (8-1)
2	Washington	10-3 (7-2)
3	Utah	10-2 (7-2)
4	Oregon	10-2 (7-2)
5	Oregon State	9-3 (6-3)
6	UCLA	8-4 (5-4)
7	Washington State	6-6 (4-5)
8	Arizona	6-6 (4-5)
9	Cal	5-7 (3-6)
10	Arizona State	4-8 (2-7)
11	Colorado	3-9 (1-8)
12	Stanford	2-10 (0-9)

Price’s Pac-12 projections (* conference championship winner)

It’s a shame that in the last year of the Pac-12 (as we know it) the conference is at its most interesting. I had a difficult time picking against USC to win the Pac-12 this season. The Trojans are returning the Heisman Trophy winner from last year in Williams. They also return a lot of production and brought in a strong transfer portal class. My only reservation is USC’s defense, which struggled at times a season ago. At the end of the day, the Trojans are going to be a talented team. I also trust Riley, who’s never won fewer than 10 games in a full season as a head coach. 

The top of the Pac-12 is loaded with quality teams in Washington, Utah, and Oregon. Each of those teams are returning great quarterbacks and have enough talent to win a lot of games. Each of those teams also play each other, too, including USC. It’s going to be a gauntlet for the teams at the top of the conference. I give the slight edge to the Huskies as the team that’s going to be in the Pac-12 Championship because they get Oregon and Utah at home. However, if either the Utes or Ducks are in the conference championship, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. 

I also wouldn’t sleep on Oregon State as a team that could win the Pac-12. Jonathan Smith has done an excellent job building up the Beavers, and they made an upgrade at quarterback by grabbing D.J. Uiagalelei from the transfer portal. I expect UCLA to regress a little bit, but Chip Kelly has that program in a good spot. I think the Bruins will be fine. Arizona and Washington State have what it takes to finish higher in the Pac-12 standings. Both teams are going to be scrappy, but I’m not convinced they have the horses on their roster to hang with the top teams in the conference.

With the exception of Stanford, I think the bottom of the Pac-12 is somewhat strong. Cal and Arizona State have enough talent to get to bowl eligibility, but I need to see it happen. Everyone is going to be interested in watching Deion Sanders in his first year as Colorado’s head coach. The Buffaloes have some talent after hauling in the No. 1 transfer portal class. I just have a hard time seeing Sanders turning things around there in a single offseason after the program went 1-11 last year. 

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jase McClellan (2) runs the ball against Kansas State Wildcats Kansas State Wildcats safety VJ Payne (19) during the second half in the 2022 Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

SEC

	East Division	Record	West Division	Record
1	Georgia	12-1 (8-0)	Alabama*	12-1 (7-1)
2	Tennessee	9-3 (5-3)	LSU	10-2 (6-2)
3	Florida	6-6 (4-4)	Texas A&M	10-2 (6-2)
4	Kentucky	7-5 (3-5)	Ole Miss	8-4 (4-4)
5	South Carolina	6-6 (3-5)	Arkansas	7-5 (3-5)
6	Missouri	4-8 (1-7)	Mississippi State	7-5 (3-5)
7	Vanderbilt	5-7 (1-7)	Auburn	6-6 (2-6)

Price’s SEC projections (* conference championship winner)

I went back and forth on which team to pick to win the SEC. I eventually landed on Alabama. Contrary to what some people think, I don’t believe the Nick Saban dynasty is over. The Crimson Tide had some bad luck last year — losing two games by a total of four points. This Alabama team will likely have a formidable rushing attack, which shouldn’t be overlooked. The best Saban-coached teams had run-heavy offenses. I also think Saban revamping his coaching staff by hiring Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele as his coordinators could rejuvenate the Crimson Tide. 

I might not have Georgia winning the SEC, but I’m still very high on the Bulldogs. They have a roster loaded with talent. I have no doubt that Kirby Smart will just reload after losing so many players to the NFL last year. I think the pundits are a little too high on LSU entering this season. The Tigers were eight points away from being a 7-5 team last year. I expect LSU to progress under Brian Kelly, but I think the program is at least another year from potentially being a national championship contender. 

I’m going to bet on Jimbo Fisher to get Texas A&M back on track this season. He’s too good of a head coach and the Aggies have too much talent to have another disastrous season like they did last year. I don’t anticipate Tennessee to drop off too much despite losing some highly-regarded players to the NFL. Josh Heupel has the Volunteers in a good spot right now, and I think Joe Milton will be a solid quarterback. Ole Miss has a chance to finish higher in the West. The Rebels lost some close games last year and return a lot of production from that team. I also wouldn’t doubt Lane Kiffin.

Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina are all in the same boat. They’re teams with enough talent to win a lot of games, but have incredibly difficult schedules. I wanted to give each of those teams more wins, but struggled to find them. Getting quarterback Devin Leary out of the transfer portal is going to help Kentucky a lot this season. He’s a solid player that should help the Wildcats be competitive. I expect both Mississippi State and Auburn to have growing pains this season since they both have first-year head coaches. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman sings the Notre Dame Alma Mater with his players after the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeated the UNLV Rebels at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame

Projected record: 9-3

I don’t think Notre Dame has received enough credit for how it finished last season. Remember, the Fighting Irish started 0-2, with losses to Ohio State and Marshall, and it felt like they were in for a long season. However, they rebounded and won nine of their last 11 games. Notre Dame is returning a lot of production from last year, and also made a big splash in the transfer portal by landing Hartman. The Fighting Irish have a good chance of making an appearance in a New Year’s Six bowl game, but they have a difficult schedule. They have road games at NC State, Duke, Louisville, and Clemson, along with home games against Ohio State and USC. I think this could be a scenario where Notre Dame is a better team than it was last season, but it doesn’t show up in the win column. 

UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) celebrates a touchdown in the first half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

Group of 5 representative in the New Year’s Six

Pick: UTSA
Projected record: 11-2

Everyone is going to pick Tulane to be the Group of 5 representative in a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. I wanted to go against the grain and pick UTSA, though. Jeff Traylor has done an excellent job building up the Roadrunners – winning 30 games the last three seasons. UTSA also returns a lot of experience and production on both sides of the ball. The Roadrunners might also have the best quarterback at the Group of 5 level in Frank Harris, who’s thrown for 71 touchdowns and ran for over 1,600 yards the last three years. Another reason why I like UTSA’s chances of making it to a New Year’s Six bowl game is its move to the American, which will garner more respect from the playoff committee. Seven times in the last nine years has the Group of 5 representative been from the American.

New Year’s Six projections

Bowl game	Team	Team
Sugar (College Football Playoff semifinal)	No. 4 Ohio State	No. 1 Alabama
Rose (College Football Playoff semifinal)	No. 3 Georgia	No. 2 Michigan
Cotton (at-large vs at-large)	Oregon	Texas
Orange (ACC vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC	LSU	Clemson
Fiesta (at-large vs at-large)	Penn State	USC
Peach (at-large vs at-large)	UTSA	Florida State

Price’s projections for the New Year’s Six bowl games

College Football Playoff National Championship

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 1 Alabama

Since not many teams at the top of college football are returning quality starting quarterbacks, I think that means that the teams that run the ball effectively will be in a better position to win. The two teams that I think will be the best in that department are Alabama and Michigan. They’re two of the most complete teams heading into the season. The Crimson Tide and the Wolverines should have imposing rushing attacks, solid defenses, and plenty of talent elsewhere on their rosters. I’m also not going to shortchange either team at the quarterback position. McCarthy performed well for Michigan last year as a sophomore. Alabama has yet to name a starter, but I think it’ll be fine wither either Jalen Milroe or Tyler Buchner. Both players were highly recruited out of high school.

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban looks on against the LSU Tigers during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Let me take you back to late Sept. 2015. Alabama hadn’t won a national championship in two years and sustained a loss to Ole Miss at home in Week 3. Everyone thought the Saban dynasty was over at the time. The Crimson Tide then won 12 games in a row, including the national championship. This year feels similar to 2015. Alabama hasn’t won a national championship in two years and everyone, again, thinks the Saban dynasty is over. I, obviously, don’t share that opinion.

I think the pundits are putting too much stock in the Crimson Tide’s quarterback battle. They’re not the only team at the top of college football breaking in a new starter. Plus, Alabama has won national championships in the Saban era despite not having a great quarterback. Those teams ran the ball effectively, controlled the time of possession, prevented opponents from scoring too many points, and had a quarterback that limited turnovers. I expect the Crimson Tide to return to their roots and play that way this season, which is why I’m picking them to win it all.

Winner: Alabama

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9 Group of 5 teams that could make a New Year’s Six bowl game in 2023

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m not following you, I’m looking for you. There’s a big difference.”

– Martin Stett, “The Conversation” (1974)

Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve had a tumultuous last few weeks in regards to conference realignment, leading to the demise of the Pac-12. That’s where everyone’s attention, including myself, has been recently. It’s to the point that I think people have forgotten that college football games will be played a little over a week from now. It’s hard to believe, right? 

I wanted to start previewing the season by writing a blog post about which Group of 5 teams have a legitimate chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. 

This topic might not draw a lot of interest, but Group of 5 teams have actually had success in the New Year’s Six since getting a guaranteed spot in 2014. Boise State beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl in 2014, Houston beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl in 2015, UCF beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl in 2017, and Tulane beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last year. Cincinnati even snuck into the College Football Playoff in 2021, and almost beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl in 2020. 

So, which Group of 5 teams could find themselves in the New Year’s Six? I did my best to narrow it down to nine teams (of 64) Remember, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now Power 5 schools, but Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State are making the jump from FCS to Group of 5. 

American Athletic Conference

Florida Atlantic Owls wide receiver LaJohntay Wester (1) celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver Tony Johnson (16) during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Atlantic Owls
2022 record: 5-7
Returning production: 83% (68% offensively, 99% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83
Transfer portal rank: No. 79
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

Say what you want about Tom Herman as a head coach, but he had a lot of success when he was previously at the Group of 5 level at Houston. Florida Atlantic also ranks in the top five in all of college football in returning production, which includes its top two rushers, four of its top five pass catchers, and a stout offensive line. One question mark is the quarterback position, but the Owls picked up two Power 5 quarterbacks in the transfer portal in Michael Johnson (Penn State) and Casey Thompson (Nebraska and Texas). FAU has also recruited well in recent years, so Herman should have a talented roster. The Owls have a difficult schedule, featuring non-conference road games against Clemson and Illinois, but I think their conference slate is manageable. I wouldn’t count this team out.

Memphis Tigers tight end Caden Prieskorn (86) and wide receiver Eddie Lewis (18) react after a touchdown during the first half against the North Alabama Lions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis Tigers
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 63% (67% offensively, 59% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.52
Transfer portal rank: No. 73
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Memphis has fallen off since Mike Norvell’s departure since 2020 – posting a record of 21-15 the last three seasons. I’m not ready to start doubting the Tigers, who’ve ranked near the top of The American almost every season since the conference was formed in 2013. One of the main reasons why I like Memphis’ chances to be competitive is because it’s one of 17 teams at the Group of 5 level that returns its head coach, both coordinators, and starting quarterback. Not other team in The American can say that. I think that’s significant because the Tigers also return a good amount of production on both sides of the ball. Memphis has a winnable game against Missouri at a neutral site in Week 4, and get Tulane at home a few weeks later. Those two games will likely determine the Tigers’ season.

Southern Methodist Mustangs tight end RJ Maryland (82) celebrates a touchdown against the Tulane Green Wave during the first half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

SMU Mustangs
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 85.32
Transfer portal rank: No. 15
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I think SMU was much better last season than its record would indicate. The Mustangs lost four games by a combined 18 points despite averaging 37.2 points per game. SMU lost a bit of production, including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, but it also brought in one of the top transfer portal classes. There’s a lot riding on presumed starting quarterback Preston Stone, but he ought to have a good supporting class around him. The Mustangs return their top three rushers and five of their top seven pass catchers. They also bolstered their offensive line by bringing in four transfers from the Power 5 level. SMU’s schedule won’t make things easy, though. The Mustangs have road games against Oklahoma, TCU, and Memphis. This team still has enough talent to make some noise, though.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz during the first quarter against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane Mean Green
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 71% (73% offensively, 68% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.93
Transfer portal rank: No. 83
Vegas projected win total: 9.5

With Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF now in the Big 12, I think Tulane is prepared to take the mantle as the team to beat in The American. We actually saw it happen last year. The Green Wave finished 12-2, won The American, and even defeated USC in the Cotton Bowl. They lost their leading rusher, top two wide receivers, and tackler from last year’s team, but they still have a lot of production returning, including quarterback Michael Pratt and four starters on the offensive line. I also think Tulane’s schedule is manageable. The Green Wave get Ole Miss, UAB, and UTSA at home, and the only road game they won’t have a talent advantage will likely be against Memphis. If they can beat Ole Miss in Week 2, they’re going to be in a good spot to return to a New Year’s Six bowl game.

UTSA Roadrunners wide receiver Zakhari Franklin (4) runs for a touchdown in the second half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

UTSA Roadrunners
2022 record: 11-3
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.82
Transfer portal rank: No. 93
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

UTSA might not return much overall production, but there’s a strong argument to be made that this team has the best quarterback/head coach combination in The American. Jeff Traylor has a record of 30-10 in three seasons with the Roadrunners, including winning at least 11 games each of the last two years. Three-year starting quarterback Frank Harris has also completed 67% of his passes, averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and thrown 71 touchdowns in his career. That’s not even counting leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and three of the team’s top four receivers also return. UTSA has a brutal schedule, though, with road games at Houston, Tennessee, FAU, and Tulane. As long as the Roadrunners have Traylor and Harris, they’re going to have a chance to win a lot of games.

MAC

Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) throws a pass against the San Diego State Aztecs during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo Rockets
2022 record: 9-5
Returning production: 77% (82% offensively, 72% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.99
Transfer portal rank: No. 108 (tied)
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I’d keep an eye on Toledo this season. The Rockets finished last season on a high note – winning seven of their last 10 games – and averaged 31.1 points per game during that stretch. Toledo ranks No. 11 in the country in returning production, including its starting quarterback Dequan Finn, top four leading rushers, top two pass catchers, four starters along the offensive line, and good players from a solid defense. Head coach Jason Candle has also had continuity on his staff, with all of his coordinators entering their fourth season. I also think the Rockets have a manageable schedule. They get Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois at home, and have a winnable road game against Illinois in Week 1. It feels like this is going to be Candle’s best team since he took over at Toledo.

Mountain West

Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) hands off to running back George Holani (24) during the first half against the Utah State Aggies at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State Broncos
2022 record: 10-4
Returning production: 67% (78% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.36
Transfer portal rank: No. 85
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

I don’t care how long it’s been since Boise State was on the national stage. I’m always going to include the Broncos on this list. Boise State actually had a very quiet 10-win season last year, with wins over San Diego State, Fresno State, and Air Force, before losing to Fresno State in a rematch in the Mountain West championship. The Broncos also return a good amount of production, including starting quarterback Taylen Green, their top three rushers, four of their top five receivers, and three starters on the offensive line. Head coach Andy Avalos has also proven that he can field a solid defense. The problem for Boise State is its schedule, which features road trips to Washington, San Diego State, and Memphis, and a home game against UCF just in the first half of the season.

Sun Belt

South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Carter Bradley (2) sets to pass in the first half against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

South Alabama Jaguars
2022 record: 10-3
Returning production: 77% (71% offensively, 82% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.48
Transfer portal rank: No. 78
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

South Alabama has a chance to have a special season in head coach Kane Wommack’s third year with the program. The Jaguars rank No. 13 in returning production from a team that won 10 games last year. That includes their starting quarterback, top three leading rushers, five of their top seven pass catchers, and six of their best defensive players. South Alabama is going to have one of the tougher schedules in college football, though. The Jaguars have road games at Tulane, Oklahoma State, James Madison, and Troy, and then get Louisiana and Marshall at home. It’s going to be difficult for South Alabama to repeat its success from last season, but it’s going to have opportunities to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee with that schedule. That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Troy Trojans linebacker K.J. Robertson (7) runs after the interception against UTSA Roadrunners in the third quarter at Exploria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Trojans
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 60% (64% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.27
Transfer portal rank: No. 82
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Troy is considered the favorite to win the Sun Belt and rightfully so. The Trojans won 12 games last year in Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach, and hung tough against Ole Miss and Appalachian State. They could’ve finished with an even better record. Troy also returns a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including starting quarterback Gunnar Watson and two of its top three rushers. The main reason why I think the Trojans have a chance to get to a New Year’s Six bowl game is their schedule. They have two tough road games at Kansas State and Army in non-conference play, but they get James Madison, South Alabama, and Louisiana at home. Those last three games will likely decide the Sun Belt championship, which is played at the home stadium of the top team in the conference.

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2023 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Am I wrong?”

– Walter Sobchak, “The Big Lebowski” (1998)

I always enjoy March Madness, but I’m particularly looking forward to it this season. I’m getting tired of the NFL offseason storylines, specifically in regards to Aaron Rodgers and whether he’s going to play in 2023. College basketball is going to bring a refreshing change to my life, at least for the next three weeks. It also feels good having my West Virginia Mountaineers in the NCAA tournament after missing out last year, so I’m going to be even more invested.

Last year was one of the worst jobs I did when it came to filling out a bracket. By the end of the first day of last year’s tournament, Kentucky lost to Saint Peter’s and Iowa lost to Richmond. I had each of those teams getting to the Final Four, and I had Kentucky winning it all. Auburn was eliminated in the second round and Arizona lost in the Sweet 16. I had each of those teams getting to the Elite Eight, and I had Arizona playing for the national championship. If you don’t believe just how bad it was, just take a look.

I think I finished last year with a measly 38 points in all my bracket challenges, because I fill out the same bracket with every group. I’m not 100% sure if that’s the worst I’ve ever done, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not. I consider my reputation to be on the line this year. I need to do better and put last year’s abysmal performance behind me. For the first time ever on this blog, I’m going to be picking the First Four matchups. I don’t understand why I haven’t done that in the past.

My opinion of this NCAA tournament is that it’s one of the strongest ones I’ve ever seen. I think there were six or seven teams that had arguments to be No. 1 seeds. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen that before. There are also a plethora of mid-major schools with a lot of experience. I also wouldn’t bet against Big 12 members. The Big 12 has had four different schools make the Final Four in the last six tournaments. The previous two national champions have also come from that conference. March Madness never fails to be entertaining, but I think this tournament has a chance to be special.

Nevada Wolf Pack center Will Baker (50) drives for a layup against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

First Four – Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10)

The computers seem to think that there’s a substantial difference between these teams. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks almost 100 spots higher than Southeast Missouri State in KenPom’s rankings. The Redhawks also don’t rank that high in either adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency. The Islanders also have tournament experience from last year.

Winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

No. 11 Pitt (22-11) vs. No. 11 Mississippi State (21-12)

According to the metrics, Pitt is one of the worst teams in the tournament. The Panthers rank No. 77 in KenPom’s rankings, which is the 17th worst of the entire field. Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks – winners of nine of its last 13 games. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: Mississippi State

No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (19-15) vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (14-20)

The metrics consider these teams to be the two worst teams in the field. I don’t know what to make of them, but it’s telling that Fairleigh Dickinson has won 19 games and ranks No. 312 in KenPom’s rankings. That’s behind Texas Southern, which s entering the NCAA tournament six games below .500.

Winner: Texas Southern

No. 11 Nevada (22-10) vs. No. 11 Arizona State (22-12)

ESPN’s BPI rankings considers these teams to be in the bottom 20 of the tournament field. I guess I’m going to give the slight advantage to Arizona State. The Sun Devils have more talent and they’ve played somewhat well recently. Mountain West teams are also 1-11 in the NCAA tournament since 2016.

Winner: Arizona State

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats talks with Alabama Crimson Tide guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 64

South Regional

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 1 Alabama (29-5) – Birmingham, Ala.

A No. 16 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed only once in the history of the NCAA tournament. I don’t think I’m ever going to predict it to happen. Alabama looked impressive in the SEC tournament and I expect it to cruise to the next round.

Winner: Alabama

No. 9 West Virginia (19-14) vs. No. 8 Maryland (21-12) – Birmingham, Ala.

WVU feels like a team that’s going to benefit by getting out of Big 12 play. I also think this could be a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers. WVU struggles with turnovers, but Maryland isn’t good at forcing them. The Terrapins also don’t shoot the ball or rebound as well as the Mountaineers. I’m going to rely on the better head coach in Bob Huggins.

Winner: West Virginia

No. 12 Charleston (31-3) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (27-6) – Orlando, Fla.

The 5/12 matchups are always enticing to pick the upset, but I think this is a tough matchup for Charleston. San Diego State rebounds very well and likes to slow the game down. The Cougars don’t shoot the ball that well and they haven’t really been challenged in weeks. I expect the Aztecs to give Charleston a lot of problems.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Furman (27-7) vs. No. 4 Virginia (25-7) – Orlando, Fla.

I flirted with picking the upset in this matchup. Furman is a great offensive team that takes care of the basketball. I’m not sure the Paladins shoot well enough from 3-point territory to upset Virginia, though. The Cavaliers commit the fewest amount of turnovers in the country and shoot the ball well. It’s hard to pick against Tony Bennett and Virginia.

Winner: Virginia

No. 11 NC State (23-10) vs. No. 6 Creighton (21-12) – Denver

I’m not much of a believer in either of these coaches. Neither have had much success in the NCAA tournament. However, this feels like Greg McDermott’s best team at Creighton since his son was there in 2014. The Bluejays have also won 12 of their last 16 games. I feel like Creighton should advance because I didn’t think NC State should’ve made the tournament.

Winner: Creighton

No. 14 UC-Santa Barbara (27-7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (22-10) – Denver

I think this is a flawed Baylor team, but it should be able to take care of business in this game. UC-Santa Barbara is one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament and the Bears rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I expect the Gauchos will have a difficult time slowing down Baylor’s offense. The Bears also have a significant talent and coaching advantage.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Utah State (26-8) vs. No. 7 Missouri (24-9) – Sacramento, Calif.

I can’t get a read on Missouri. Winning 24 games and getting to the semifinals of the SEC tournament is an impressive feat, but the metrics consider the Tigers one of the worst teams in the tournament. Utah State ranks 33 spots higher than Missouri in KenPom’s rankings. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with the Aggies.

Winner: Utah State

No. 15 Princeton (21-8) vs. No. 2 Arizona (28-6) – Sacramento, Calif.

Ivy League schools actually have a decent track record in the NCAA tournament. This feels like a tough matchup for Princeton, though. Arizona is loaded with talent and has won 13 of its last 16 games, including winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts after making a basket and being fouled during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-5) – Columbus, Ohio

Texas Southern has the ability to rebound, which you need to do in order to beat Purdue. However, there’s no way I’m picking a team with a losing record to upset a No. 1 seed.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 FAU (31-3) vs. No. 8 Memphis (26-8) – Columbus, Ohio

This feels like a tough matchup for FAU. I think Memphis is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Tigers are loaded with talent and shoot the ball well. The best way for the Owls to win this game is to force turnovers and I don’t think they do that well enough – ranking No. 154 in the country.

Winner: Memphis

No. 12 Oral Roberts (30-4) vs. No. 5 Duke (26-8) – Orlando, Fla.

Oral Roberts is arguably the strongest No. 12 seed in the tournament. The Golden Eagles are an excellent offensive team and are red hot entering the NCAA tournament – winners of 17 games in a row. However, Duke is playing its best basketball right now after winning the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are also going to have a significant talent advantage.

Winner: Duke

No. 13 Louisiana (26-7) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (23-10) – Orlando, Fla.

Even though Tennessee hasn’t been the same since Zakai Zeigler got hurt, I still think it’s plenty talented to win this game. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 58 points per game. I don’t think Louisiana, which ranks No. 57 in adjusted offensive efficiency, is good enough to overcome Tennessee’s defense.

Winner: Tennessee

No. 11 Providence (21-11) vs. No. 6 Kentucky (21-11) – Greensboro, N.C.

I swore off picking Kentucky to go deep in the tournament after it lost to Saint Peter’s last year. However, I like the Wildcats in this matchup. They rank in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and rebound the ball very well. Providence doesn’t shoot the ball that well and I don’t think it’s talented enough to knock off Kentucky.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 14 Montana State (25-9) vs. No. 3 Kansas State (23-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

I’m not convinced that Montana State is good enough offensively to knock off Kansas State, which ranks in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bobcats don’t shoot that well from 3-point territory and aren’t the best rebounding team. Jerome Tang has done an excellent job in his first season with the Wildcats and I don’t see their season ending here.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 10 USC (22-10) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (19-12) – Columbus, Ohio

I think USC is talented enough to win this game, but I’m going to go with Michigan State. I’m a firm believer that coaching matters in March and the Spartans have that advantage with Tom Izzo, who’s lost in the Round of 64 only twice since 2011. I also think traveling across the country might have a negative effect on the Trojans.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 15 Vermont (23-10) vs. No. 2 Marquette (28-6) – Columbus, Ohio

I don’t think this is going to be an easy game for Marquette to win. Vermont is a well-coached team that has been a tough out in the NCAA tournament in its last three appearances. The Golden Eagles are red hot right now, though. They’ve won 19 of their last 21 games, including winning the Big East tournament. I expect Marquette to advance.

Winner: Marquette

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson gives direction during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Northern Kentucky (22-12) vs. No. 1 Houston (31-3) – Birmingham, Ala.

Northern Kentucky got hot in its conference tournament and clinched a tournament bid, but it’s considered one of the worst teams in the field. The Norse rank in the bottom six in both KenPom and ESPN BPI. Houston shouldn’t have many problems in this game.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Auburn (20-12) vs. No. 8 Iowa (19-13) – Birmingham, Ala.

I don’t trust Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament. He’s never made it past the first weekend. I also don’t think Iowa is good enough on the defensive end of the court. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom of the tournament field in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn is the more talented team and has the better head coach in Bruce Pearl.

Winner: Auburn

No. 12 Drake (27-7) vs. No. 5 Miami (25-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I can’t go the entire Round of 64 without picking an upset in a 12/5 matchup. It happens almost on a yearly basis. I think Miami is vulnerable after losing Norchad Omier in the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have also struggled on the defensive end of the court. Drake is a solid, tournament experienced team. I like the Bulldogs to get the upset.

Winner: Drake

No. 13 Kent State (28-6) vs. No. 4 Indiana (22-11) – Albany, N.Y.

This is another matchup that I like the upset. Indiana isn’t playing particularly well entering the tournament. The Hoosiers have won only four of their last eight games and struggled to score points during that stretch. Kent State has hung tough with a lot of quality teams this season and are strong defensively. I think the Golden Flashes find a way to win.

Winner: Kent State

No. 11 Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Iowa State (19-13) – Greensboro, N.C.

Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks, but it’s going to be tough for it to win this game. Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 62.8 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t shoot the ball well, especially from 3-point territory. I think the Cyclones also have the better head coach in T.J. Otzelberger.

Winner: Iowa State

No. 14 Kennesaw State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Xavier (25-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

By the time this game rolls around, Kennesaw State wouldn’t have played in 12 days. I think that’s going to be problematic, especially against Xavier. The Musketeers are a great offensive team and have played well in their last six games. The Owls are going to have a difficult time after so much time off.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State (22-13) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (25-9) – Des Moines, Iowa

I don’t feel good about this, but I’m going to pick Penn State to win this game. The Nittany Lions are red hot – winners of eight of their last 10 games – and came three points shy of winning the Big Ten tournament. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time defending Jalen Pickett, who’s averaged 19.6 points in Penn State’s last 10 games.

Winner: Penn State

No. 15 Colgate (26-8) vs. No. 2 Texas (26-8) – Des Moines, Iowa

I wouldn’t sleep on Colgate in this matchup. The Raiders have made each of the last four NCAA tournaments and rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. However, Texas has won six of its last eight games, including winning the Big 12 tournament. I have to go with the Longhorns.

Winner: Texas

Kansas Jayhawks guard MJ Rice (11) sets the play during the first half against the Texas Longhornsat T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard (22-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (27-7) – Des Moines, Iowa

I’m struggling to see a scenario where a lesser team like Howard knocks off the Big 12 regular season champion, which is an impressive feat considering it was the toughest conference this year. Kansas has too much talent to lose this game.

Winner: Kansas

No. 9 Illinois (20-12) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (20-13) – Des Moines, Iowa

This is a tough game to predict because both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. I’m going to give the advantage to Illinois. Arkansas is hobbling to the tournament – losing 11 of its last 19 games. The Fighting Illini are a well-coached team with plenty of athleticism. I think they’re in a slightly better position right now.

Winner: Illinois

No. 12 VCU (27-7) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I like the upset in this game. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I don’t trust come tournament time. I think VCU is going to want to speed the game up and that style of play is going to give the Gaels some trouble. The Rams also have one of the best defenses in the country – ranking No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: VCU

No. 13 Iona (27-7) vs. No. 4 UConn (25-8) – Albany, N.Y.

I’m kind of tempted to pick Iona solely because of Rick Pitino. He’s one of the best coaches in college basketball history and he has the Gaels playing well right now. However, I’m going to give the advantage to UConn because it’s the more talented team. I also think the Huskies might be the most underrated team in this tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU (21-12) – Denver

Jamie Dixon doesn’t have the best track record in the NCAA tournament, but I’m having a difficult time picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs are a talented team and are excellent defensively. Arizona State doesn’t shoot the ball well, which isn’t going to bode well against TCU. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Horned Frogs.

Winner: TCU

No. 14 Grand Canyon (24-11) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (28-5) – Denver

This feels like a bad matchup for Grand Canyon. There are only four teams in the tournament worse than the Antelopes in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the other side, Gonzaga is one of the hottest teams in the country right now and has averaged 90 points in its last 13 games. The Bulldogs also haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2008.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State (24-9) vs. No. 7 Northwestern (21-11) – Sacramento, Calif.

Northwestern is an excellent defensive team, but Boise State plays an interesting style of basketball. The Broncos shoot the ball well and rank in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think points are going to be hard to come by for the Wildcats, who average only 67.7 points per game and shoot 40.6% from the field.

Winner: Boise State

No. 15 UNC-Asheville (27-7) vs. No. 2 UCLA (29-5) – Sacramento, Calif.

UNC-Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games, but UCLA feels like an under seeded team. The Bruins rank No. 2 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI’s rankings. This feels like it’s going to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: UCLA

Creighton Bluejays guard Ryan Nembhard (2) drives to the basket against Villanova Wildcats guard Justin Moore (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 32

South Regional

No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama – Birmingham, Ala.

I think West Virginia has a chance to make a deep tournament run, but I doubt it’s going to be the team to knock off Alabama. The Mountaineers have been vulnerable defensively – allowing 71 points per game. That’s going to be a problem when going up against the Crimson Tide, who average 82.2 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Virginia – Orlando, Fla.

Both of these teams play a similar style of basketball. They’re going to want to slow the game down. The first team to 60 points might win, honestly. I’ll give the advantage to Virginia. The Cavaliers take care of the basketball very well and shoot the ball better than San Diego State. I also think the Aztecs will struggle to score on Virginia’s defense.

Winner: Virginia

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 3 Baylor – Denver

Despite being a No. 3 seed, I have reservations about Baylor being able to make a deep run. The Bears haven’t been playing well down the stretch – losers of four of their last six games. They’re also not a great defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball very well and does a better job of taking care of the basketball, too. I’ll take the minor upset.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 2 Arizona – Sacramento, Calif.

I don’t think Utah State has the length to contend with Arizona. The Aggies average only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game. I don’t think that’s going to be good enough to knock off the Wildcats, who average 39.4 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). Arizona is one of the better shooting teams in the tournament, too. I expect the Wildcats to advance.

Winner: Arizona

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 1 Purdue – Columbus, Ohio

This is going to be a tough matchup for Purdue. The Boilermakers struggle to take care of the basketball at times and Memphis is excellent at forcing turnovers – averaging 15.3 per game. However, the Tigers are going to have a difficult time defending Zach Edey, who averages 22.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. I’ll go with Purdue to squeak out a win.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 4 Tennessee – Orlando, Fla.

I don’t see Tennessee being able to make a deep run without Zeigler. The Volunteers aren’t the same team without him. This is going to be a tough matchup for them. Duke is playing very well right now and feels like a vastly under seeded team. The Blue Devils are also going to have the talent advantage. I like them to advance to the Sweet 16.

Winner: Duke

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Kansas State – Greensboro, N.C.

I’ve been burned by John Calipari and Kentucky too many times in recent years. So, I’m going to go with Kansas State to win this game. The Wildcats have the ability to match Kentucky’s rebounding production. I also think Kansas State will be able to expose the Wildcats’ defense, which ranks No. 71 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Marquette – Columbus, Ohio

Again, I think coaching matters. I don’t trust Shaka Smart, who has a record of 2-8 in the NCAA tournament since 2011 and is winless since 2013. With only two days to prepare, I’m going to give Izzo the advantage. I think Marquette will have a difficult time scoring on Michigan State’s defense, which allows just 67.4 points per game.

Winner: Michigan State

Drake Bulldogs guard D.J. Wilkins (0) reacts after making a three pointer against the Bradley Braves during the first half in the finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 1 Houston – Birmingham, Ala.

This feels like the furthest Auburn is going to get in the tournament. The Tigers struggle to shoot the ball and have lost nine of their last 13 games. That’s not what it’s going to take to knock off Houston, which ranks No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars are the more athletic team and should be able to take care of business.

Winner: Houston

No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 12 Drake – Albany, N.Y.

I’m going to keep rolling with Drake. The Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in this matchup in Tucker DeVries. Drake is also one of the best shooting teams in the tournament – averaging 47% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point territory. I think the Bulldogs have a good chance of getting past the first weekend.

Winner: Drake

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Xavier – Greensboro, N.C.

While Iowa State is an excellent defensive team, I’m not convinced it has the offense to defeat Xavier. The Musketeers average 81.4 points per game and shoot 49.4% from the floor (39.5% from 3-point territory). They’re also an excellent rebounding team. It feels like too much is going against the Cyclones in this matchup.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas – Des Moines, Iowa

Texas has the depth at guard, especially if Timmy Allen is healthy, to give Pickett and Penn State fits. This feels like the end of the road for the Nittany Lions. I doubt Penn State, which ranks No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency, is good enough on that end of the court to upset the Longhorns. Texas is the much better team and should advance.

Winner: Texas

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates after a play against the Chicago State Cougars in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 1 Kansas – Des Moines, Iowa

Illinois has what it takes to knock off Kansas. I’ve been burned by the Fighting Illini the last two years, though. They’ve been to inconsistent for me to pick the upset. The Jayhawks are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament – allowing only 67.9 points per game. Illinois is going to have a difficult time scoring points.

Winner: Kansas

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 4 UConn – Albany, N.Y.

UConn’s frontcourt is too talented and it has too much length. I have to pick the Huskies to win this game. If the shots aren’t falling for VCU, I doubt it has what it takes to win this game. UConn makes 46% of its shots and still averages 13.4 offensive rebounds per game. That’s very impressive. I don’t think the Rams will be able to overcome that.

Winner: UConn

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 3 Gonzaga – Denver

I’m not convinced that TCU can get past the first weekend without Eddie Lampkin, who recently entered the transfer portal. The Horned Frogs have also lost eight of their last 13 games. Jamie Dixon also hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the tournament since 2009. Gonzaga is the better team right now and I see no reason to pick against the Bulldogs.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 2 UCLA – Sacramento, Calif.

Even though I’m high on Boise State’s offensive ability, this is going to be a tough matchup. UCLA ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 60.3 points per game. I don’t think the Broncos are talented enough to overcome that. I expect the Bruins to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third-straight year.

Winner: UCLA

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Brandon Miller (24) celebrates after a made basket plus one during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Sweet 16

South Regional semifinals – Louisville, Ky.

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama

I actually think Virginia has what it takes to knock off Alabama. The Cavaliers are very good defensively and don’t make mistakes. If they can ugly this game up, the Crimson Tide could be in trouble. I don’t see that happening, though. Alabama is going to have the best player on the court in Brandon Miller. At the end of the day, I don’t think Virginia is good enough offensively to pull off the upset.

Winner: Alabama

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 2 Arizona

I don’t think Creighton is talented enough to knock off Arizona. I’m also struggling to see which part of this matchup the Bluejays have an advantage. The Wildcats are the better shooting and rebounding team, and are the more efficient offensively. Creighton is going to have to play its best game of the season in order to win. That’s a tall order when March rolls around.

Winner: Arizona

Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) reacts in the second half during the semifinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals – New York

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 1 Purdue

When these teams met in the regular season, Edey was dominant as Purdue rolled to a 19-point victory. I don’t expect a similar result this time around. Duke is a much better team right now and is playing very well defensively. If Mike Krzyzewski was still the head coach of the Blue Devils, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick the upset. I still think Edey is going to be problematic for Duke, though.

Winner: Purdue

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State

I don’t see Michigan State getting further than this point. The Spartans have to make shots at some point, which is something they haven’t done consistently this season. It’s going to be particularly difficult against Kansas State, which kept opponents to shooting just 41.9% from the field (30.1% from 3-point territory). I actually think the Wildcats have a favorable path to the Elite Eight.

Winner: Kansas State

Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr (5) celebrates after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 12 Drake vs. No. 1 Houston

This is a favorable matchup for Houston. While Drake shoots the ball well, it only ranks No. 98 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are going to have a difficult time scoring on the Cougars. Houston allows only 56.5 points per game and opponents shoot just 36.4% from the field (27.8% from 3-point territory). I expect the Cougars to get back to the Elite Eight for the third-straight year.

Winner: Houston

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas

Despite losing Chris Beard in the middle of the season, I’ve been impressed with Texas all season. The Longhorns are playing at a high level right now. It’s hard for me to pick against them. Sean Miller has become a head coach that I don’t trust come tournament time either. He hasn’t made it past the first weekend since 2017. I think Texas’ backcourt depth will be too much for Xavier.

Winner: Texas

UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) plays against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Kansas

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for UConn. Kansas allows its opponents to collect 34.8 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). The Huskies are going to be able to crash the boards against the Jayhawks. UConn has a deeper bench, with nine players averaging at least 13.2 minutes per game. I also question whether Bill Self is ready to coach again after his a health scare in the Big 12 tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA

I still don’t think Gonzaga has been challenged enough in conference play. Excluding Saint Mary’s, the Bulldogs haven’t played a team that ranked higher than No. 75 in KenPom’s rankings since Dec. 2. I think UCLA’s defense is up to the challenge of slowing down Gonzaga’s offense. I also think the Bruins will have the 2021 Final Four meeting between these teams in the back of their mind.

Winner: UCLA

Arizona Wildcats forward Azuolas Tubelis (10) looks to shoot against UCLA Bruins forward Kenneth Nwuba (14) during the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Elite Eight

South Regional final – Louisville, Ky.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Alabama

I’m not as high on Alabama as everyone else. The Crimson Tide don’t shoot the ball as well as people think – averaging just 44.6% from the field and 33.8% from 3-point territory. I think Arizona matches up very well with Alabama. The Wildcats have the length and superior rebounding ability to upset the Crimson Tide. I also question if Alabama has enough scoring depth, outside of Miller, to win it all. Arizona has had four different players score at least 24 points in a game. That usually translates well in the tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter gestures to his team during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final – New York

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Purdue

I have a feeling that this regional final is going to look much differently in a few weeks. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding almost every team in this region. However, if these teams meet in the Elite Eight, I expect Purdue to emerge victorious. I don’t think Kansas State is good enough in the paint to limit Edey’s production. If you can’t slow down Edey, you’re going to have a difficult time defeating the Boilermakers. I’m not confident in this pick at all, but I like Purdue to get to the Final Four.

Winner: Purdue

Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser (0) reacts after a three point basket during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Houston

I understand why people are hesitant to pick Houston after Marcus Sasser’s injury. However, the Cougars have a favorable path to get to this point, which will give Sasser time to get healthy. Even if he’s not 100%, I think Houston still has plenty of athleticism, depth, and defensive expertise to get back to the Final Four. The Cougars have had four different players score at least 20 points in a game. I also doubt that Texas can get to the Final Four with an interim head coach.

Winner: Houston

Connecticut Huskies guard R.J. Cole (1) looks to pass during the second half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 2 UCLA

If Jaylen Clark was healthy, I’d pick UCLA to win. I think the Bruins will have a difficult time without him, though. KenPom has UConn ranked No. 4, so it’s a vastly under seeded team in this tournament. That and Clark’s injury are why I like the Huskies to win this game. UConn ranks in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies also have the ability to make shots and get to the free throw line, which is going to be valuable against UCLA.

Winner: UConn

Final Four – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Purdue

I question if Purdue has enough scoring depth, outside of Edey, in order to win the national championship. Edey has led the Boilermakers in scoring in 24 of their 34 games. I also think Purdue’s inexperienced backcourt will be a problem at some point in the tournament. That’s why I’m not convinced that the Boilermakers are going to get to this point. I’m going to give the advantage to Arizona. The Wildcats have the length to match up with Edey in the paint. They also have an experienced roster, with their top six leading scorers being upperclassmen.

Winner: Arizona

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Houston

I actually wouldn’t rule out UConn winning this game. The Huskies are a much more athletic team than people think, and they have the ability to score. UConn has also fared well in the last 20 years when the Final Four has been in Texas. With this all but being a home game for Houston, I’m going to give the advantage to the Cougars. I think they’re a more complete team than UConn. Houston ranks in the top 12 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies are going to have a difficult time making shots against the Cougars’ stout defense.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

2023 National Championship – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Houston

I thought Arizona had what it takes to win the national championship last year. The problem was that the Wildcats ran into a defensive buzz saw in Houston in the Sweet 16. I see the same thing happening in this matchup. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country, maybe even the best. They also do a lot of things very well that usually translate to wins in March. Houston won the turnover margin by a ratio of 4.6 and collected an average of 12.8 offensive rebounds per game – ranking in the top 15 in the country in both categories.

If Sasser is healthy, which I’m expecting him to be, I don’t see a team that’s going to be able to slow down the Cougars. There’s a reason why they’re No. 1 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI rankings. Houston just has too much size, athleticism, and scoring depth. I think the Cougars can get adequate production from Jarace Walker, J’Wan Roberts, Jamal Shead, or Truman Mark even if Sasser isn’t 100% healthy.

Winner: Houston

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Unpopular opinion: College Football Playoff expansion isn’t necessary

Movie quote of the day:

“What about my prime, Mick? At least you had a prime! I had no prime, I had nothin’!”

– Rocky Balboa, “Rocky” (1976)

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart holds the National Championship trophy after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2022 CFP college football national championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been in the works for a little over a year, but it’s now official that the College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams starting in 2024.

Under the new format, the first round of the Playoff will be held at either the home field of the higher-seeded team or at another site designated by the higher-seeded team. The quarterfinal and semifinal games will be played in bowls (Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl) on a rotating basis. Cities around the country will continue to bid to host the national championship.

The top four seeds, and the teams that will get first-round bye weeks, will be determined by the highest ranked conference champions in the selection committee’s rankings. The other eight spots will be determined by the next highest ranked teams, including a guaranteed spot for a Group of 5 representative.

The College Football Playoff will include 12 teams , starting with the 2024 season. https://t.co/scVp5MyLOH

— The Associated Press (@AP) December 2, 2022

If the new format was implemented this year, this is what the Playoff seeding/matchups would look like:

Top four teams:

No. 1 Georgia (13-0)
No. 2 Michigan (13-0)
No. 3 Clemson (11-2)
No. 4 Utah (10-3)

First round matchups:

No. 9 Kansas State (10-3) at No. 8 Tennessee (10-2)
No. 12 Tulane (11-2) at No. 5 TCU (12-1)
No. 11 Penn State (10-2) at No. 6 Ohio State (11-1)
No. 10 USC (11-2) at No. 7 Alabama (10-2)

College football fans have been pounding the table for changes to the postseason for decades. It started with a simple structured format, which is how we got the BCS. Then, we wanted more of the pro model, which is how we got the Playoff. Unlike most college football fans, though, I haven’t been one to argue for an expanded playoff. It’s not because I don’t want the chance to watch more football (I do), nor that I’m worried that it might lessen the regular season (I’m not convinced that it will), nor that I’m against making money (I’m a capitalist).

So, what’s my issue with an expanded postseason? It comes down to the lack of parity in college football.

College Football Playoff executive director Bill Hancock during a CFP press conference at Banc of California Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve had a four-team playoff since 2014. During that time, we’ve had only 14 schools make an appearance. For context, there are currently 131 schools at the FBS level, which includes the Power 5 and Group of 5 conferences, and 65 of those schools (including Notre Dame) are members of Power 5 conferences. Thirteen of the 14 schools that have appeared in the Playoff have come from the Power 5 conferences and one from a Group of 5 conference (until next year).

That’s a mere 20% of Power 5 schools and 10.6% of FBS schools have made an appearance in the Playoff, which obviously isn’t a high percentage. Plus, five of those 13 Power 5 schools have made at least three appearances in nine years. So, close to 40% of the teams that have made the Playoff have been there more than once.

I realize that having a four-team playoff means fewer teams getting opportunities. However, when you factor in that five schools have used up 25 of the 36 playoff spots, the list of schools actually competing to win the national championship is very exclusive.

On top of that, the Playoff games haven’t been that competitive. The winning teams in the semifinal games have outscored the losing teams 617-280. Only three of the 16 semifinal games have been decided by one possession. The losing team in nine of those 16 games has been held to 20 or fewer points.

Yes, you’re reading those numbers right. Just take a look:

Year	Winner	Points	Loser	Points
2014	No. 2 Oregon	59	No. 3 Florida State	20
	No. 4 Ohio State	42	No. 1 Alabama	35
2015	No. 1 Clemson	37	No. 4 Oklahoma	17
	No. 2 Alabama	38	No. 3 Michigan State	0
2016	No. 1 Alabama	24	No. 4 Washington	7
	No. 2 Clemson	31	No. 3 Ohio State	0
2017	No. 3 Georgia	54 (OT)	No. 2 Oklahoma	48 (OT)
	No. 4 Alabama	24	No. 1 Clemson	6
2018	No. 1 Alabama	45	No. 4 Oklahoma	34
	No. 2 Clemson	30	No. 3 Notre Dame	3
2019	No. 1 LSU	63	No. 4 Oklahoma	28
	No. 3 Clemson	29	No. 2 Ohio State	23
2020	No. 1 Alabama	31	No. 4 Notre Dame	14
	No. 3 Ohio State	49	No. 2 Clemson	28
2021	No. 1 Alabama	27	No. 4 Cincinnati	6
	No. 3 Georgia	34	No. 2 Michigan	11
Point total		617		280

The outcomes of each of the College Football Playoff semifinal games since 2014

The national championships haven’t been that competitive either:

Year	Winner	Points	Loser	Points
2014	No. 4 Ohio State	42	No. 2 Oregon	20
2015	No. 2 Alabama	45	No. 1 Clemson	40
2016	No. 2 Clemson	35	No. 1 Alabama	31
2017	No. 4 Alabama	26 (OT)	No. 3 Georgia	23 (OT)
2018	No. 2 Clemson	44	No. 1 Alabama	16
2019	No. 1 LSU	42	No. 3 Clemson	25
2020	No. 1 Alabama	52	No. 3 Ohio State	24
2021	No. 3 Georgia	33	No. 1 Alabama	18
Point total		319		197

The outcomes of each of the College Football Playoff national championships since 2014

Remember back in the days of the BCS when we thought there were plenty of teams good enough to win the national championship? That’s why the four-team playoff was created, so that the schools that we thought weren’t getting a fair shake from the computer would get an opportunity. The four-team playoff format was designed to include the best of the best teams in college football on a yearly basis. However, I think the four-team playoff format has demonstrated is that there is a clear gap between the top programs with the rest of the country. That’s why only six of the 24 semifinal games/national championships that have been played have been decided by one possession.

Is the selection committee to blame for the lopsided results in the Playoff and national championships? Is it not getting the right four teams on a yearly basis? Possibly. I’ve had my issues with the committee over the years, but I actually think it’s been right more times than it’s been wrong when it comes to choosing the top four teams. My criticism of the committee has usually come from how it’s ranked teams outside of the top four spots.

Now, I want to be clear that I think some good can come from expanding the Playoff to 12 teams:

1. More opportunities for schools: As a lifelong fan and alumnus of a Tier 2 school, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want to see it have a better chance to compete in the Playoff every season.
2. It should all but guarantee that the committee will get the teams right on a yearly basis: The argument every year is if the committee got the top four teams right and if the fifth- or sixth-best team in the rankings were snubbed. With 12 teams now getting in, that argument should be put to rest. However, there will still be the argument if the teams outside the top 10 were snubbed.
3. No more punishing teams for playing in a conference championship: One of the dumbest customs that we’ve accepted over the years is to punish schools for losing a conference championship. One of the best examples of this came in 2017. That year, Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, rose to No. 2 in the committee’s rankings, and represented the SEC West division in the conference championship. Auburn went on to lose to Georgia – a team it beat in the regular season – in the SEC Championship. The committee dropped Auburn five spots the following week and put Alabama in the Playoff. Auburn then had to compete in the Peach Bowl and watch Alabama go on to win the national championship. I’ve always hated that custom because it makes zero sense. A team shouldn’t be punished for playing in a 13th game, and another team shouldn’t be rewarded because it didn’t have to play a 13th game. With the committee keeping TCU in the Playoff this year despite losing its conference championship, I think we might be seeing the end to that custom. That’s especially going to be true with an expanded playoff.

The College Football Playoff National Championship trophy on display during a 2023 CFP National Championship Kickoff press conference at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

I’ll wrap this post up by saying that there isn’t enough talent spread out to justify expanding the Playoff. There’s a parity problem in college football right now. The lopsided results of the semifinal games/national championships prove that. Do you think the lower seeded teams have a realistic chance of knocking off the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the quarterfinal round on a yearly basis? The evidence shows that the answer to that question is no.

With college football being so top heavy, why would the powers that be choose to expand the Playoff? We all know the answer to that is money. Adding more schools means more games, which means more money lining everyone’s pockets.

Yes, an expanded playoff will lead to more opportunities for the Tier 2 and Tier 3 schools to crack the Playoff. However, it’s also going to lead to more opportunities for the Tier 1 schools that haven’t been able to crack the four-team playoff so far. Let’s not kid ourselves, those are the schools that have the most to gain from this decision. The committee is much more likely to choose Tier 1 schools with large alumni bases that can move the needle, which will lead to even more money, over the Tier 2 or Tier 3 that don’t have the same amount of resources.

My thought process has always been that, if you want to expand the Playoff, add two more teams and give bye weeks to the two highest-ranked teams. Instead, we’re diving headfirst into the deep end by adding eight schools. I’m not convinced that that’s necessary and will only lead to more lopsided results.

Like everyone else, though, I’ll still tune in to watch.

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College football Week 14 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“You know how they say we only use 10 percent of our brains? I think we only use 10 percent of our hearts.”

– John Beckwith, “Wedding Crashers” (2005)

Week 13 record: 7-5 (58.3%)
2021 record: 95-61 (60.8%)
All-time record: 817-390 (67.6%)

Friday:

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers wide receiver Malachi Corley (11) celebrates with teammates after catching a pass for a touchdown against the Marshall Thundering Herd during the third quarter at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Conference USA Championship
Western Kentucky (8-4) at UTSA (11-1)
Alamodome
San Antonio
Line: WKU -3.5
O/U: 72.5

I was going to pick UTSA to win this game before seeing the line. Vegas considers Western Kentucky a 3.5-point favorite on the road over the Roadrunners (usually three points are awarded to the team that has home-field advantage). That forced me into picking the Hilltoppers. They’ve been playing very good football in their last eight games – winning seven of those games and outscoring opponents 363-184 during that stretch. I think UTSA will have a hard time keeping up with Western Kentucky on the scoreboard.

Prediction: Western Kentucky 38, UTSA 35

Utah Utes running back Tavion Thomas (9) runs with the football during the first quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 Championship
No. 10 Oregon (10-2) vs. No. 17 Utah (9-3)
Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas
Line: UTAH -2.5
O/U: 58

This was by far the toughest game to pick this week. I keep thinking that the first time these teams played a few weeks ago was a bit of an outlier and Utah just caught Oregon on a bad night. Even if that’s the case, the Utes have been playing very well in their last nine games – winning eight of those games and outscoring opponents 335-182. I expect this game to be a completely different result than the first meeting in terms of final score, but I still think Utah will emerge victorious. The Utes have the advantage at quarterback and head coach, which will likely be the difference.

Prediction: Utah 31, Oregon 27

Saturday:

Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Christian Holmes (0) celebrates after an Oklahoma Sooners tackle during the second half at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12 Championship
No. 9 Baylor (10-2) vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (11-1)
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Line: OKST -5.5
O/U: 46.5

If Baylor had a healthy quarterback, I think the Bears would have a good chance of pulling off the upset this week. I can’t bring myself to pick Baylor because of that, but I do think it’ll make this a competitive game. Both of these teams have excellent defenses, so this game will likely be decided on which team has the better offense. I give that slight advantage to Oklahoma State. I think the Cowboys are in a much better position to win. I also think Oklahoma State’s pass rush could be a very tough matchup for the Bears’ offensive line.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 24, Baylor 20

Kent State Golden Flashes quarterback Dustin Crum (7) throws during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

MAC Championship
Kent State (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4)
Ford Field
Detroit
Line: KSU -3.5
O/U: 74

The last time these teams played, Kent State won by five points in a 99-point shootout. I expect a similar result this time around, too. The Golden Flashes have such a good offense, which averages 6.0 yards per play this season and 40.1 points in their last seven games. I know that Northern Illinois has the better record, but I think it’s inflated because seven of the Huskies’ eight wins have been decided by one possession. I’m not super confident in this pick, but I’ll go with Kent State.

Prediction: Kent State 42, Northern Illinois 35

San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jordon Brookshire (4) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Boise State Broncos in the second half at Dignity Health Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Mountain West Championship
Utah State (9-3) at No. 19 San Diego State (11-1)
Dignity Health Sports Park
Carson, Calif.
Line: SDSU -6
O/U: 50

San Diego State is still trying to fight for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game, so I expect it to be extra buttoned up this week. The Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country – allowing only 4.4 yards per play and 17.2 points per game this season. Utah State’s offense has been too inconsistent against FBS competition. With this game being in California, I think the Aggies are going to have a very hard time moving the ball on the Aztecs’ defense.

Prediction: San Diego State 27, Utah State 20

Appalachian State Mountaineers linebacker Nick Hampton (31) celebrates making a sack with defensive back Ryan Huff (21) during the second half against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Sun Belt Championship
Appalachian State (10-2) at No. 24 Louisiana (11-1)
Cajun Field
Lafayette, La.
Line: APP -3
O/U: 53

I have no idea what to make of this game. I think both teams are playing very well right now. The only reason why I’m hesitant to pick Louisiana is because of Billy Napier’s leaving for Florida, even though he’s supposed to coach this game. Will Napier and his team be focused? It’s hard to say, but I think the Rain’ Cajuns will be ready to play. I think they’re going to want to send Napier off on a high note before he leaves for Florida for good. Louisiana’s defense is excellent – allowing just 16.7 points per game. The last time these teams played, Appalachian State only scored 13 points, so I expect points to be hard to come by for the Mountaineers.

Prediction: Louisiana 27, Appalachian State 23

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) throws the ball during the second half against the East Carolina Pirates at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

American Athletic Conference Championship
No. 21 Houston (11-1) at No. 4 Cincinnati (12-0)
Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati
Line: CIN -10.5
O/U: 52.5

At first, I thought Houston might be able to keep this game close, but not after seeing its schedule. The Cougars have played one of the easiest schedules in college football this season. The FBS teams on their schedule have a combined record of 48-83. Cincinnati is the much better team with a better head coach. I think it’s going to show up in a big way this week. The Bearcats need a win to possibly secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. I don’t think Houston has played a team of Cincinnati’s caliber, so I like the Bearcats to win comfortably.

Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Houston 24

Michigan Wolverines tight end Erick All (83) and wide receiver Cornelius Johnson (6) celebrate a touch down at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten Championship
No. 2 Michigan (11-1) vs. No. 13 Iowa (10-2)
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis
Line: MICH -11
O/U: 43.5

I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan comes out flat for this game. The Wolverines are coming off an emotional win over Ohio State, which was their first win over their arch-rival in a decade. I definitely think Michigan could be overlooking this game because last week might as well have been its championship game. However, I don’t think Iowa’s offense is good enough if its defense can’t force turnovers, and the Wolverines are one of the best in the country at taking care of the ball. I think Michigan will pull away in the second half and win its first Big Ten championship since 2004.

Prediction: Michigan 24, Iowa 14

Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) throws a pass in the second quarter against the Syracuse Orange at the Carrier Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

No. 15 Pitt (10-2) vs. No. 16 Wake Forest (10-2)
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, N.C.
Line: PITT -3
O/U: 71.5

This feels like it’s going to be a difficult game for Wake Forest to win. The Demon Deacons haven’t been able to get stops defensively in their last eight games – allowing an average of 36.5 points during that stretch. I don’t think Wake Forest matches up very well with Pitt because of that. The Panthers boast one of the best offenses in the country, led by Maxwell Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett – averaging 6.2 yards per play and 42.8 points per game. I expect this game to be a shootout, so I have to give the advantage to Pickett and Pitt’s offense.

Prediction: Pitt 41, Wake Forest 34

Game of the week:

Georgia Bulldogs running back Kenny McIntosh (6) celebrates after a touchdown with wide receiver George Pickens (1) against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the second half at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

SEC Championship
No. 1 Georgia (12-0) vs. No. 3 Alabama (11-1)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
Line: UGA -6.5
O/U: 49.5

I’m usually not one to question Vegas, but I think if any other SEC team was playing Georgia this week, the Bulldogs would be favored by a lot more points. I think Vegas is giving Alabama too much credit. The Crimson Tide haven’t been that good of a team this season – at least not up to the standard of previous Alabama teams. I don’t see this game being a blowout, but I do expect Georgia to win. The Bulldogs have a significant advantage in the trenches, and have plenty of motivation knock off the Crimson Tide. I think Alabama is going to have a very difficult time winning the line of scrimmage in this matchup, particularly its offensive line against the Bulldogs’ defensive front.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Alabama 21

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

2021 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Hey, guys. You ready to let the dogs out?”

– Alan Garner, “The Hangover” (2009)

March Madness, it’s good to have you back. We’re a year from when the entire world stopped because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled because of it. This time last year, I would’ve given an arm or a leg to be able to watch some college basketball, or any sports for that matter. It feels so refreshing to know that March Madness is coming back today. It’s been far too long since I last watched my West Virginia Mountaineers play in the NCAA tournament.

As opposed to previous years, the 2021 NCAA Tournament will be hosted almost exclusively in the city of Indianapolis, Ind., giving the tournament a “bubble.” I seem to say this every year, but it’s even more relevant this season, I have no idea what to expect. This season, it’s more than just the upsets that could potentially happen. As we saw a little bit in the conference tournaments, you also have to factor in the possibility for teams to be eliminated because of a COVID-19 positive test. That could cause so much more chaos to this tournament.

When it comes to upsets, I think there’s a very good chance we’re going to get a lot. It’s just so hard to judge teams this teams because of different bodies of work. Some teams have played as many as 30 games, and some have played as few as 15 (and almost exclusively against conference opponents). There’s a very good chance that the majority of teams in the tournament are overseeded or underseeded, which is why I think there’s likely going to be a lot of chaos in the early rounds. It’s just so hard to tell at this stage. I’ll admit, though, that I didn’t go crazy and pick a bunch of upsets.

Round of 64:

Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Jalen Suggs (1) and head coach Mark Few (R) react during the second half of the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game against the BYU Cougars at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 1

No. 16 Norfolk State (17-7) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (26-0)

I usually don’t like picking undefeated teams to win it all, but there’s no way I can pick against Gonzaga this round. The Bulldogs are just so good on both ends of the court.

Prediction: Gonzaga

No. 9 Missouri (16-9) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (15-10)

Oklahoma has lost five of its last six games, and Missouri has lost six of its last nine. With neither team playing well, I don’t really know which one to pick. I have a lot of respect for Lon Kruger, though, so I guess I’ll take the Sooners.

Prediction: Oklahoma

No. 12 UC Santa Barbara (22-4) vs. No. 5 Creighton (20-8)

It didn’t take long to pick my first upset. Creighton is a good team, but it’s had off-the-court problems with head coach Greg McDermott taking time off this season due to using insensitive comments. In McDermott’s return in the Big East tournament, the Bluejays looked out of sorts. UC Santa Barbara is an efficient team on ends of the court and is very good defensively – allowing just 62.8 points per game. I like the Gauchos.

Prediction: UC Santa Barbara

No. 13 Ohio (16-7) vs. No. 4 Virginia (18-6)

I think this could be a nightmare matchup for Virginia. Ohio has the ability to score – averaging 80.9 points per game. This Virginia team is much worse defensively than previous teams have been since Tony Bennett took over as head coach. I think the Cavaliers are going to have their hands full on the defensive end. However, in games that I expect to be close, I like to pick the better free-throw shooting team. Virginia is the third-best free-throw shooting team in the country, while the Bobcats rank in the 200s.

Prediction: Virginia

No. 11 Drake (26-4) vs. No. 6 USC (22-7)

I’ve seen USC play a handful of times. I think the Trojans are an athletic and well-coached team. Drake has played a pretty weak schedule this season – its best wins coming against Kansas State and Loyola Chicago. I have no idea what to expect from the Bulldogs. I realize that the Pac-12 isn’t that great of a conference, but I have a feeling that USC is a little underseeded.

Prediction: USC

No. 14 Eastern Washington (16-7) vs. No. 3 Kansas (20-8)

Kansas was playing very well – winners of eight of its last nine games – before the Big 12 tournament. In the conference tournament, a few key players sat out and the Jayhawks were also forced to forfeit to Texas because of a positive COVID-19 test. How that will affect them is unclear. The good news is that Eastern Washington isn’t highly thought of – ranking No. 110 in KenPom’s rankings, which is 11th worst among tournament teams. I have to go with Kansas in this one.

Prediction: Kansas

No. 10 VCU (19-7) vs. No. 7 Oregon (20-6)

These teams have totally contrasting styles. Oregon is very good on the offensive end – shooting 47.1% from the field and 37.9% of 3-point territory. VCU is an excellent defensive team – allowing just 65.2 points per game and ranking No. 11 in defensive efficiency. In the tournament, I usually like to pick the teams that have better shooters and the better head coach. Oregon has that advantage by a mile.

Prediction: Oregon

No. 15 Grand Canyon (17-6) vs. No. 2 Iowa (21-8)

Iowa very well might have the best player in the tournament in Luka Garza. I think Grand Canyon is going to have a hard time defending Iowa’s offensive attack, which averages 83.8 points per game.

Prediction: Iowa

Michigan Wolverines head coach Juwan Howard talks to his players during action against the Michigan State Spartans Sunday, March 7, 2021, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. Mandatory credit: Detroit Free Press.

Regional No. 4

No. 16 Texas Southern (17-8) vs. No. 1 Michigan (20-4)

Mount St. Mary’s and Texas Southern are the two worst teams in the NCAA tournament, according to KenPom. Michigan ought to cruise to the next round.

Prediction: Michigan

No. 9 St. Bonaventure (16-4) vs. No. 8 LSU (18-9)

I think this might be the best 8 vs. 9 matchup. Both of these teams are playing very well entering the tournament. I’ve gone back and forth on which team to pick, but I’m going to go with LSU. The Tigers have more athletes and I thought they really showed what they could do in the SEC tournament. LSU also shoots the ball better and grabs more offensive rebounds than the Bonnies.

Prediction: LSU

No. 12 Georgetown (13-12) vs. No. 5 Colorado (22-8)

Picking Georgetown is a little tempting since it just got hot and won the Big East, but I think Colorado is the better team and should be able to advance. The Buffaloes are a well-coached team that shoot the ball pretty well. This matchup will likely come down to turnovers, and the Hoyas are one of the worst at taking care of the ball – committing 15.3 turnovers per game.

Prediction: Colorado

No. 13 UNC Greensboro (21-8) vs. No. 4 Florida State (16-6)

I’m not sure why, but I’m a little tempted to pick UNC Greensboro. However, I’m just not sure the Spartans have enough horses to pull off the upset. Florida State is very athletic and the better offensive team. I like the Seminoles to move on.

Prediction: Florida State

No. 11 UCLA (18-9) vs. No. 6 BYU (20-6)

I don’t really know what to make of BYU. The Cougars don’t have any impressive wins outside of San Diego State and it feels like we’re just giving them credit for playing Gonzaga pretty tough a few days ago. UCLA sort of hobbled into the tournament – losers of four of its last five games. However, all four of those losses came against fellow tournament teams and three of those games were on the road. I think Mick Cronin is a good coach, too. I think he’ll have the Bruins ready against BYU.

Prediction: UCLA

No. 14 Abilene Christian (23-4) vs. No. 3 Texas (19-7)

Statistically, Abilene Christian is one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. Texas appears to be hitting its stride, though, after winning the Big 12 tournament. The Longhorns have a lot of athleticism. I have to pick them to win this game.

Prediction: Texas

No. 10 Maryland (16-13) vs. No. 7 UConn (15-7)

I’ve seriously gone back and forth on which team to pick in this matchup. I’ve changed my mind quite a few times, but I think UConn has the coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. I’m sure Maryland is battle-tested after playing in a very tough Big Ten this year, but I can’t get over those 13 losses. In what should be a very close game, I have to go with the Huskies because they’re a better free-throw shooting team.

Prediction: UConn

No. 15 Iona (12-5) vs. No. 2 Alabama (24-6)

The only thing intriguing about this matchup is that Rick Pitino is coaching Iona. I wouldn’t completely sleep on the Gaels, but I don’t think they’re good enough to upset Alabama.

Prediction: Alabama

Baylor Bears guard Davion Mitchell (45) celebrates with guard MaCio Teague (31) after scoring against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 2

No. 16 Hartford (15-8) vs. No. 1 Baylor (22-2)

This is Hartford’s first trip to the Division I NCAA tournament, but I think it’ll be a quick one. The Hawks aren’t a good enough offensive team to keep up with Baylor.

Prediction: Baylor

No. 9 Wisconsin (17-12) vs. No. 8 North Carolina (18-10)

Both of these teams are very similar because they’re great on the defensive end. So, this game will likely be decided by which team can shoot the ball better, and I give Wisconsin that advantage. The Badgers are more efficient on offense, a much better 3-point shooting team, and take care of the ball better than North Carolina. Wisconsin isn’t entering the tournament on the highest note, but I still like it to advance.

Prediction: Wisconsin

No. 12 Winthrop (23-1) vs. No. 5 Villanova (16-6)

This is another 5 vs. 12 matchup that I think will end in an upset. The Wildcats hobbled into the postseason – losers of four of their last seven games, and three of their last four. Villanova has also had some key injuries. Winthrop feels like an underseeded team. The Eagles rank in the top 40 in the country in offensive and defensive efficiency. I also think they’re catching the Wildcats at the right time.

Prediction: Winthrop

No. 13 North Texas (17-9) vs. No. 4 Purdue (18-9)

I think Matt Painter is a good enough coach to trust in the postseason. The Boilermakers can also win in a variety of different ways, which will make things difficult for North Texas to pull off the upset. I just don’t think the Mean Green have what it takes offensively to knock off Purdue.

Prediction: Purdue

No. 11 Utah State (20-8) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (17-10)

Texas Tech has one of the best pure scorers in the tournament in Mac McClung. Utah State has been a great defensive team all season, but I think the Aggies will have their hands full defending McClung. I respect Chris Beard a lot as a head coach, too. I like the Red Raiders to move on.

Prediction: Texas Tech

No. 14 Colgate (14-1) vs. No. 3 Arkansas (22-6)

I seriously flirted with Colgate to win this game. The Raiders are one of the best offensive teams in the country, but I’m just not sure how good they really are because they’ve only played 15 games against seven or eight opponents. I think Arkansas is a very well-coached team under Eric Musselman. The Razorbacks also do a very good job at forcing turnovers – averaging 15.3 per game. I’ll take Arkansas to escape with a win.

Prediction: Arkansas

No. 10 Virginia Tech (15-6) vs. No. 7 Florida (14-9)

I don’t really like the position Virginia Tech is in right now. Due to COVID-19 outbreaks, the Hokies have played just three games since the beginning of February. I don’t think they’re ready for the NCAA tournament. I have a hard time trusting Florida because it’s been pretty inconsistent this season. However, someone has to win this game and I just think the Gators are more prepared to get the win.

Prediction: Florida

No. 15 Oral Roberts (16-10) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (21-9)

Oral Roberts has the ability to put up points, but it’s going to need to play good defense to pull off the upset against Ohio State. The Golden Eagles allow 75.8 points per game and rank No. 281 in defensive efficiency. I expect the Buckeyes to win this game easily.

Prediction: Ohio State

The Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate their 91-88 victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes after the Big Ten Tournament title game Sunday, March 14, 2021, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Mandatory credit: The Indianapolis Star.

Regional No. 3

No. 16 Drexel (12-7) vs. No. 1 Illinois (23-6)

Drexel enters the NCAA tournament on a hot streak, but I don’t think it’ll be able to knock off Illinois. The Fighting Illini are really good on both ends of the court and Brad Underwood might be the most underrated head coach in the country.

Prediction: Illinois

No. 9 Georgia Tech (17-8) vs. No. 8 Loyola Chicago (24-4)

I usually like picking teams that got hot and won their conference tournament, especially at the larger schools, but I think this is a bad matchup for Georgia Tech. I think Loyola Chicago is going to be a dangerous team. In terms of efficiency, the Ramblers are very good on both ends of the court and rank No. 9 in KenPom’s power rankings. I like them to move on.

Prediction: Loyola Chicago

No. 12 Oregon State (17-12) vs. No. 5 Tennessee (18-8)

Again, I’m kind of going against what I usually like to do. Oregon State has been a great story, but I think the Beavers’ run ends here. Tennessee is a pretty good offensive team, but it’s also great defensively. I think Oregon State will have a difficult time scoring against the Volunteers, who allow just 63.2 points per game. Tennessee also has the coaching advantage with Rick Barnes.

Prediction: Tennessee

No. 13 Liberty (23-5) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State (20-8)

Oklahoma State is entering the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country – winners of 11 of its last 15 games, and eight of its last 10. The Cowboys are loaded with talent, including the likely future No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham.

Prediction: Oklahoma State

No. 11 Syracuse (16-9) vs. No. 6 San Diego State (23-4)

It’s so hard to pick against a Hall of Fame head coach like Jim Boeheim. However, I just can’t put much trust in Syracuse. The Orange have been too inconsistent this season. I’m also not sure Syracuse is a good enough offensive team to overcome San Diego State’s stout defense, which allows just 60.6 points per game. The Aztecs also enter the tournament on a 14-game win streak and I think that has to count for something.

Prediction: San Diego State

No. 14 Morehead State (23-7) vs. No. 3 West Virginia (18-9)

I don’t think Morehead State is a good enough offensive team to pull off an upset in this matchup – averaging just 68.8 points per game and ranking No. 181 in offensive efficiency. I think the Mountaineers have flaws, but I think they should win fairly comfortably.

Prediction: West Virginia

No. 10 Rutgers (15-11) vs. No. 7 Clemson (16-7)

I was originally going to pick Clemson, but I’m not sure the Tigers are a good enough offensive team to win this game. They don’t shoot the ball particularly well – ranking No. 240 in the country in field-goal percentage. Rutgers is a good defensive team and does a very good job of taking care of the ball. I’ll take the Scarlet Knights.

Prediction: Rutgers

No. 15 Cleveland State (19-7) vs. No. 2 Houston (24-3)

Cleveland State just doesn’t match up well with Houston. The Vikings aren’t great on the offensive end – averaging just 71.5 points per game. That won’t be good enough to upset the Cougars, who rank No. 4 in the country in defensive efficiency and allow just 57.9 points per game.

Prediction: Houston

Round of 32:

The Southern California Trojans sideline cheers after a shot by guard Amar Ross (55) during the second half against the Stanford Cardinals at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 1

No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

I respect Kruger a lot, but I’m just not sure Oklahoma has what it takes right now to knock off Gonzaga. The Sooners just aren’t playing well enough to win this game, but I expect them to put up a tough fight. I have to go with the Bulldogs, though.

Prediction: Gonzaga

No. 12 UC Santa Barbara vs. No. 4 Virginia

I’m going to have to go with Virginia in this one. The Cavaliers have the coaching advantage with Bennett, which I think is huge when it comes to these games in the tournament after just one day of preparation. UC Santa Barbara is a very good defensive team, but Virginia has the ability to counter it because it shoots the ball pretty well.

Prediction: Virginia

No. 6 USC vs. No. 3 Kansas

I’m really not crazy about picking Kansas this year. The Jayhawks were rolling going into the Big 12 tournament, but they now have personnel question marks. I’m just not sure what to expect from Kansas. I actually think USC can go toe-to-toe with Kansas’ athleticism. The Trojans also shoot the ball well – shooting 46.7% from the field and 34.7% from 3-point territory – and rank in the top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Prediction: USC

No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Iowa

I do think Oregon can give Iowa some fits. The Hawkeyes really struggle at defending 3-pointers and the Ducks are an excellent 3-point shooting team. Since both of these teams can shoot the ball well, this game will likely come down to turnovers. Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball and Oregon isn’t exactly terrific at forcing turnovers. I like the Hawkeyes to squeak out the win.

Prediction: Iowa

Colorado Buffaloes guard D’Shawn Schwartz (5) celebrates the win over the against the UCLA Bruins at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 4

No. 8 LSU vs. No. 1 Michigan

I wouldn’t be surprised if LSU makes this a very competitive game, or even pulls off the upset. Michigan is a very good offensive team, though – ranking in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, and turnovers per game. LSU has struggled on the defensive end this season – allowing 75.3 points per game and ranking No. 225 in efficiency. I think the Wolverines should be able to get the win.

Prediction: Michigan

No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 4 Florida State

I don’t think Colorado is as athletic, nor shoots the ball as well, as Florida State, but I actually like the Buffaloes in this game. They’re very good in some areas that I think get overlooked. Colorado is the one of the top free-throw shooting teams in the country, it takes care of the ball, and is also a very good defensive team – allowing just 63.3 points per game. I think this is a tough matchup for the Seminoles.

Prediction: Colorado

No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 3 Texas

I find it hard to pick against Texas right now. The Longhorns are hot – winners of five games in a row, including winning the Big 12 tournament. The Longhorns have the ability to make shots and I’m just not sure UCLA will be able to keep up. I expect Cronin to have to have the Bruins ready to play, but I just think Texas has more athletes. The Longhorns should be able to advance.

Prediction: Texas

No. 7 UConn vs. No. 2 Alabama

I actually think UConn could make this a tough game for Alabama. The Crimson Tide are going to shoot a lot of 3-pointers – leading the country in 3-point attempts – and the Huskies actually defend 3-pointers pretty well. However, I think UConn also has to make shots to beat Alabama, which is struggled to do in the regular season. I’ll take the Crimson Tide to escape with a win and move on.

Prediction: Alabama

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Chris Beard reacts after a play against the Texas Longhorns during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 2

No. 9 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Baylor

Wisconsin has had a hard time defending 3-pointers this season – allowing teams to shoot 33% from deep. Baylor is the best 3-point shooting team in the country – shooting 41.8% from 3-point territory. I think this is a tough matchup for the Badgers. I like the Bears to move on.

Prediction: Baylor

No. 12 Winthrop vs. No. 4 Purdue

As good of an offensive team as Winthrop is, I have to go with Purdue to win this game. I think the Boilermakers are the better defensive team, especially when it comes to defending 3-pointers. They also have one of the tallest lineups in the country, which will help out-rebound the Eagles.

Prediction: Purdue

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Arkansas

I think Texas Tech is going to pull off the upset in this game. Arkansas forces a lot of turnovers, but the Red Raiders are one of the best in the country when it comes to taking care of the basketball – ranking No. 4 in the country in turnover margin. Texas Tech is also a good offensive rebounding team, which could pose problems for the Razorbacks.

Prediction: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Florida has been too inconsistent this season for me to pick an upset. Ohio State has been the superior team all season and I have no reason to believe it won’t be able to win this game. The Buckeyes are a very good offensive team and I think the Gators will have a hard time defending them.

Prediction: Ohio State

Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Cade Cunningham (2) shoots against Texas Longhorns guard Matt Coleman III (2) during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 3

No. 8 Loyola Chicago vs. No. 1 Illinois

I’d flirt with an upset here if I wasn’t so high on Illinois. Even though the Ramblers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament, I think the Fighting Illini will be able to score points. Illinois ranks in the top 30 in the country in both field-goal and 3-point field-goal percentage.

Prediction: Illinois

No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State

Tennessee is a very good defensive team, but I think it’s going to have a very hard time defending Oklahoma State’s offensive attack, which has been averaging 80.3 points in its last eight games. I think the Cowboys are the better team right now and I like them to advance.

Prediction: Oklahoma State

No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 3 West Virginia

Maybe I’ve seen WVU play too many times, but I’m tempted to pick San Diego State. However, the best way to beat the Aztecs is to take care of the basketball and convert on 3-point attempts. The Mountaineers rank in the 100 in the country in both of those categories.

Prediction: West Virginia

No. 10 Rutgers vs. No. 2 Houston

These are two very good defensive teams, but I have to give the advantage to Houston. The Cougars rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I just don’t think Rutgers have the shooting ability to score enough points on Houston’s defense.

Prediction: Houston

Sweet 16:

Iowa Hawkeyes center Luka Garza (55) reacts to the crowd after making a shot against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the first half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 1

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

There’s no way I can pick against Gonzaga in this matchup. I don’t think Virginia is quite good enough on either side of the court in order to pull off the upset. The Bulldogs are loaded with scoring threats and I think the Cavaliers are going to have a hard time defensively.

Prediction: Gonzaga

No. 6 USC vs. No. 2 Iowa

Iowa is probably going to have to get scoring from other players not named Garza in this matchup, because USC has the size underneath to limit Garza’s scoring production. While I think the Trojans could make this a game, I’m not sure their 3-point defense is good enough. The Hawkeyes shoot the ball very well from 3-point territory and USC ranks No. 210 in the country when it comes to defending 3-pointers.

Prediction: Iowa

Texas Longhorns guard Matt Coleman III (2) celebrates with guard Courtney Ramey (3) and guard Jase Febres (13) after winning the Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 4

No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 1 Michigan

I’m just not sure Colorado is quite good enough on the offensive end of the court to upset Michigan. The Wolverines have the ability to consistently make shots – ranking in the top 25 in both field goal and 3-point percentage. Michigan also does a very good job of taking care of the basketball. I think this is going to be a very tough matchup for the Buffaloes to win.

Prediction: Michigan

No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Alabama

I think Texas matches up pretty well with Alabama because the Longhorns defend 3-pointers pretty well. However, the Crimson Tide take care of the ball a little better than Texas and force a lot of turnovers, whereas the Longhorns are bad in both of those categories. The Crimson Tide are also better at grabbing offensive rebounds and free throw shooting, and have the better head coach in Nate Oats. This feels like a game Alabama will be able to win.

Prediction: Alabama

Illinois Fighting Illini forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili (15) defends against Ohio State Buckeyes forward E.J. Liddell (32) in the first half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 2

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Baylor

I think Purdue certainly has the capability to upset Baylor. The Boilermakers are pretty good at defending 3-pointers and have a variety of ways to score baskets. I have a hard time picking against the Bears, though. They shoot the ball just a little bit better than Purdue, which I think will be the difference maker. I do think the Boilermakers will make this a very difficult game for the Bears to win.

Prediction: Baylor

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Ohio State

This is where I see Texas Tech’s run ending. Eventually, I think the Red Raiders’ 3-point defense, which ranks No. 252 in the country, will come back to haunt them. Ohio State is a pretty good 3-point shooting team – averaging 36.4% from deep. I’m sure Beard will keep this a competitive game, but Texas Tech just doesn’t seem to match up. I like the Buckeyes to get the win in this matchup.

Prediction: Ohio State

West Virginia Mountaineers forward Emmitt Matthews Jr. (11) dunks the ball during the second half against the Baylor Bears at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 3

No. 4 Oklahoma State vs. No. 1 Illinois

This will be a very entertaining game. I’d be very interested to watch Underwood against his former school. If Oklahoma State was in any other bracket, I’d probably take it to make it to the Elite 8. As I’ve said before, though, I’m very high on Illinois. The Fighting Illini have the ability to outshoot Oklahoma State’s offense.

Prediction: Illinois

No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 2 Houston

Everything in this game seems to give the advantage to Houston. Statistically, the Cougars are a better defensive team, shoot the ball a little better, grab more rebounds, make more free throws than WVU. As much as I love Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers, I think this will be a very difficult matchup for them to win. I’m not super confident in it, but I’ll take Houston to advance.

Prediction: Houston

Elite Eight:

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates teammate Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Aaron Cook (4) three pointer against the Loyola Marymount Lions in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 1

No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

Iowa has been too inconsistent on the defensive end this season. I think the Hawkeyes are plenty capable of defeating Gonzaga, but I just don’t see it happening. The Bulldogs have so much scoring depth, with four different players scoring at least 25 points this season. Gonzaga also has the length down low to defend Garza and prevent him from making a huge impact. I like the Bulldogs to get back to the Final Four.

Prediction: Gonzaga

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Herbert Jones (1) during the second half against Georgia Bulldogs at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 4

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan

I think Michigan is good enough to make it this far in the tournament without its second-leading scorer, Isaiah Livers. I think this is the end of the road for the Wolverines, though. I just think it’s going to be hard to get to the Final Four without Livers. Not only that, but Michigan doesn’t defend the 3-ball all that well – allowing teams to convert on 3-pointers 33% of the time. I think Oats is going to exploit that matchup as the Crimson Tide get to the Final Four for the first time in program history.

Prediction: Alabama

Baylor Bears guard Jared Butler (12) runs the offense against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 2

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Baylor

Ohio State doesn’t match up that well with Baylor. The Buckeyes have struggled defending 3-pointers this season – allowing teams to shoot 34% from deep. I think Baylor will be able to make 3-pointers at will against the Buckeyes. The Bears will also probably have the best player on the court in this game with Jared Butler. They ought to be able to make an appearance in the Final Four for the first time since 1950.

Prediction: Baylor

Illinois Fighting Illini forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili (15) reacts to making a basket while being fouled as guard Da’Monte Williams (20) celebrates in the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Regional No. 3

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 1 Illinois

Houston’s defense has been spectacular this season, but Illinois has the star power to score on the Cougars. The Fighting Illini are very good offensively – shooting 49.8% from the field and 37.6% from 3-point from beyond the arc – and should be able to make shots against Houston’s defense. I’m very high on the Fighting Illini and I like them to punch their ticket to the Final Four.

Prediction: Illinois

Final Four:

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

I do think Alabama can go toe-to-toe with Gonzaga in terms of scoring, but the Bulldogs should be able to win. First of all, I think the Crimson Tide’s luck with the 3-ball is going to run out at some point in this tournament. Teams have to win in other ways in order to win it all and I’m just not sure that Alabama can do it. The Bulldogs are better at shooting the ball from all over the court, and can even rebound the ball better than the Crimson Tide. I have to pick Gonzaga.

Prediction: Gonzaga

No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 1 Baylor

These two teams played in the regular season and it ended with Baylor winning by 13 points. I think Illinois is the better team this time around – winners of 15 of its last 16 games against a very tough Big Ten conference schedule. The Fighting Illini are playing their best basketball and will be ready to play against Baylor. Give him almost a full week to prepare and I think Brad Underwood will be able to dial up a better game plan than Scott Drew.

Prediction: Illinois

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship:

No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

I think we’re going to have two teams compete for a chance to win their first national championship this year. I’ve never been a huge believer that a school like Gonzaga can win a national title, though, because the Bulldogs practically sleep walk through the weak West Coast Conference. That kind of mentality won’t work in the NCAA tournament. For whatever reason, I don’t think Gonzaga is going to win it all this season. So, essentially by default, I have to pick Illinois to win it all. I think Illinois is just as good of a team as Gonzaga, and it’s also battle-tested after facing a tough Big Ten conference schedule this season. The Fighting Illini are playing like the best team in the country right now. They have the head coach in Underwood and the star players like Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn to get it done. I really like Illinois to cut down the nets.

Prediction: Illinois

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

College football coaching carousel grades

Movie quote of the day:

“Men my age dictate this war. Why should we be allowed to send our children to fight it?”

– Mr. Dawson, “Dunkirk” (2017)

I was actually pretty surprised by how many coaching changes there were in this carousel. With the COVID-19 pandemic making a fairly big impact on the college football season, I thought schools would be more patient with their head coaches and give them at least one more year. I’m not sure judging coaches on the 2020 season is fair. Regardless, new hires were made I think I need to give out some grades. I didn’t mean to take so long on this post. I was set up to type it all up until Marshall elected to move on from Doc Holliday, then Tennessee fired Jeremy Pruitt and hired Josh Heupel, and then UCF was left vacant. I went ahead and just decided to hold off until those schools made their new coaching hires. Now that the Knights have found their man, I think this post is good to go. Let’s hope no more unexpected moves happen.

UCLA Bruins interim coach Jedd Fisch reacts during an NCAA football game against the California Golden Bears at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Wildcats
Out: Kevin Sumlin
In: Jedd Fisch

So, I don’t really get this hire by Arizona. Fisch has a long resume with stops as an offensive coordinator in both college and the NFL, coaching in the southwest at both levels. I guess that’s kind of nice. I think he’ll be more familiar with the recruiting area than people probably think. The problem is that when I look at Fisch’s resume, I don’t see an instance where he was an offensive coordinator and the team he coached for had a memorable offense. It’s just a bunch of “meh”, in my opinion. Considering that the Arizona football team has a record of 9-20 since 2018, and has posted a losing record in four of its last five seasons, I thought the athletic department would try to get a bigger name. Instead, it hired one of Bill Belichick’s assistant coach from this past season. I’m just not impressed with this decision.

Grade: C

Former Tennessee Volunteers head coach Butch Jones on the sidelines as the Alabama Crimson Tide play at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports

Arkansas State Red Wolves
Out: Blake Anderson
In: Butch Jones

I realize that Jones carries a little baggage because he was a little bit of a disaster at Tennessee and hasn’t been anything but an offensive analyst and assistant to the head coach at Alabama the last three seasons, but I don’t think this this is a horrible hire by Arkansas State. Jones was a pretty good Group of 5 head coach before being hired at Tennessee – posting a record of 50-27 in six season at Central Michigan and Cincinnati. I think a head coaching job at Tennessee was probably too big for him. During his career, he’s coached at places like West Virginia, Tennessee, and Alabama, he likely now has a ton of connections in the South. So I don’t think he’s going to have issues recruiting. Don’t forget, Arkansas State has done a pretty good job hiring head coaches in the last decade – Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin, and Anderson. Three of those four coaches either are currently coaching or would later go on to coach at Power 5 institutions. I think this is going to work out for the Red Wolves.

Grade: B-

Boise State Broncos head coach Bryan Harsin is pictured before the start of a game against the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn Tigers
Out: Gus Malzahn
In: Bryan Harsin

Considering the mess of a head coaching search that Auburn had for a few weeks, I actually thought this was an excellent hire. In my opinion, I think this is the best hire of the coaching carousel. I was honestly shocked the Tigers were able to pull Harsin from Boise State, considering he’s from Boise, Idaho, and a Boise State alumnus. Harsin is a proven winner, though. He had a record of 69-19 (76-24 overall record) at Boise State and won at least 10 games in five of his seven seasons there. The only reason why I’m not giving this a better grade is because he doesn’t have a ton of experience in the South, but I think that can be a little overrated when judging a coaching hire. He’s put together a pretty good staff so far of coaches that have a ton of experience in the South. Can he compete with Nick Saban in Alabama and in the SEC, though? That’s a very tall order.

Grade: B+

Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos works with the team on Aug. 3, 2019, in Eugene, Oregon. Avalos heads into his second season as the Ducks defensive coordinator. Mandatory credit: The Register Guard

Boise State Broncos
Out: Bryan Harsin
In: Andy Avalos

I actually really like this hire by Boise State. First of all, Avalos has a history of fielding some good defenses as a coordinator. With the exception of this past season, Avalos’ defenses have finished in the top 50 in both total and scoring defense in each of his seasons as a coordinator at both Boise State and Oregon. Not only do I think he knows what he’s doing, but I think he’s a great fit for Boise State. He’s from California, played at Boise State, and coached at Boise State for seven seasons before going to Oregon in 2019. For a place like Boise State, which isn’t a Power 5 institution and doesn’t have as much money, I think it’s good find a head coach who has ties to the program. He’s also a young guy – just 39 years old. I think he’ll be able to relate to young players and assemble a physical team.

Grade: B

Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema talks with quarterback Austin Allen (8) during a timeout in the fourth quarter of the game at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Illinois Fighting Illini
Out: Lovie Smith
In: Bret Bielema

I kind of get where Illinois’ head is at with this decision. Bielema had a lot of success in the Big Ten when he was the head coach at Wisconsin. He’s from Illinois and played at Iowa. Bielema is very familiar with the recruiting area. His struggles at Arkansas could be chalked up as being at one of the lesser SEC football programs. It seems like he’d be worth taking another chance on, right? I’m not so sure. Since 2012, which is when he lost Paul Chryst as an offensive coordinator, Bielema’s record as a head coach is 30-33. I think one could make the argument that Chryst was the real brains of the operation when him and Bielema were at Wisconsin together. Illinois has never really been a successful football program, so I understand why the athletic department would want to hire Bielema. I just don’t think it’s going to lead to very many wins.

Grade: C-

Alabama Associate head coach / running backs coach Charles Huff during A-Day spring scrimmage football game at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday April 13, 2019. Mandatory credit: The Montgomery Advertiser

Marshall Thundering Herd
Out: Doc Holliday
In: Charles Huff

I don’t think this was necessarily a bad hire. Huff has a pretty good resume – coaching under P.J. Fleck, James Franklin, and Nick Saban during his career. I think that’s impressive, and he appears to be an excellent recruiter. Is that because of solely him or because he was coaching at Penn State, Mississippi State, and Alabama? My guess is probably the latter. However, Huff is from Maryland and has had coaching stops on the East Coast, in the southeast, and across the Ohio Valley. He’s going to know the recruiting area well. The problem that I have with this hire is that Marshall elected to move on from a proven head coach in Doc Holliday – who had a record of 85-54, was from West Virginia, and had won a conference championship – and replaced him with someone who has never even been an offensive coordinator. I can’t base my grade off that, though. I have to base it off if I like the hire itself, and I do.

Grade: B-

South Carolina hired former Oklahoma assistant head coach and tight ends coach Shane Beamer to be its next head coach (Getty Images).

South Carolina Gamecocks
Out: Will Muschamp
In: Shane Beamer

I was pretty surprised that South Carolina fired Will Muschamp. First off, he signed an extension with the school just a year or two ago, and because he’d beaten a ranked Auburn team just a few weeks before he was fired. I’ve never been a fan of Muschamp as a head coach, so I think the decision to move on from him was actually the right one. However, I’m not that crazy about South Carolina hiring Beamer. He’s never been anything but a position coach or assistant head coach. While that’s not very impressive, Beamer has worked for some of college football’s best head coaches in the last 20 years throughout his career – Phil Fulmer, Steve Spurrier, Frank Beamer (his dad), Kirby Smart, and Lincoln Riley. I have no idea if that means he’s highly thought of or if his dad helped him land those jobs. I understand that he’s technically from South Carolina, but I just don’t see the appeal with Shane. I thought South Carolina could’ve done better.

Grade: C

UCF Knights head coach Josh Heupel watches from the sidelines during the first quarter against the Temple Owls at the Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Volunteers
Out: Jeremy Pruitt
In: Josh Heupel

With Tennessee likely going to be hit with NCAA sanctions after alleged recruiting violations under Pruitt, I thought the Volunteers were going to have a very difficult time hiring a new head coach. I didn’t think very many coaches would have interest in going to a program that’s likely soon to be under probation. Not only that, but Tennessee has been a mess as a football program in the last 12 years – posting a record of 78-82 since 2008 with four different head coaches. After considering that, I’m not sure that hiring Heupel is necessarily a bad decision, at least on paper, because he does have a coaching record of 28-8 at UCF. However, UCF has declined as a program under Heupel. He inherited a program from Scott Frost that finished 13-0 and won the Peach Bowl over Auburn, and then claimed a national championship in 2017. Since he took over in 2018, the Knights have regressed each season – posting a record of 12-1 in 2018, 10-3 in 2019, and 6-4 in 2020. I’m just not much of a believer in Heupel. Like I said, he inherited a Ferrari at UCF and the program has been in decline since he took over. Does Tennessee really think he’s the right man to come to the SEC and rebuild this program? I just don’t see it. I usually don’t give grades any worse than a C-, but this just doesn’t seem like a good decision or a good fit.

Grade: D

Texas hired Alabama offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Steve Sarkisian to be its next head coach (USA TODAY Sports).

Texas Longhorns
Out: Tom Herman
In: Steve Sarkisian

Once upon a time, I was very high on Sarkisian. I thought he was one of the more underrated head coaches in college football when he was at Washington. I realize that his 34-29 record with the Huskies isn’t that impressive, but I think it is when you consider that the Washington program was in the toilet before he took over – posting a record of 33-63 from 2001-08. His tenure at USC was cut short due to some personal issues he had, but I do believe he would’ve won games there. Obviously, he had a bunch of success at Alabama as the offensive coordinator the last two seasons. However, I’m always cautious with Nick Saban assistants because most have left and not had the same success that they had when working under Saban. I’d argue the exceptions to that are Kirby Smart and Lane Kiffin. I do believe, though, that this is a good hire by Texas. The problem I have is that I’m not sure Sarkisian can replicate the offensive success he had at Alabama and Texas is a tough job because of the high expectations of its boosters and administration. I’m just not sure he has the personality for it.

Grade: B+

Auburn Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn before the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

UCF Knights
Out: Josh Heupel
In: Gus Malzahn

I think Malzahn is going to be a terrific fit at UCF. Considering he had to face Saban and Smart twice a year since 2017, I always thought Malzahn did an admirable coaching job at Auburn. In his eight years with the Tigers, he posted a record of 68-35, and has an overall record of 77-38. Malzahn has a pretty good track record as a head coach and has a ton of recruiting experience in the South. I think a job like Auburn, which has a fanbase with extremely high expectations, was probably getting too big for him. Malzahn now goes to a place in UCF where the fanbase’s expectations aren’t anywhere near as high as Auburn’s fanbase. I think UCF would be satisfied going 9-3, or better, every season and in the mix for New Year’s Six bowl games on a yearly basis. The Knights have arguably been the best Group of 5 program in the last four years and I think Malzahn will be able to keep that level of success at UCF. I actually think going from Heupel to Malzahn is a huge upgrade.

Grade: A-

Arkansas State Red Wolves head coach Blake Anderson during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Utah State Aggies
Out: Gary Andersen
In: Blake Anderson

Utah State swapped out Andersen for Anderson. Sorry, I had to throw that joke in there. I was actually very surprised the Aggies were able to lure Anderson from Arkansas State because he’s from Arkansas. Although, after I think about it, I suppose Utah State is a slightly better job than Arkansas State. I also thought he did a good job with that Arkansas State program, too – posting a record of 51-37 in seven seasons. Anderson didn’t even have a losing season there until this past year, and one could argue that COVID-19 played a major part in that. Regardless, I actually respect Anderson as a Group of 5 head coach, and I think he has the potential to be a Power 5 head coach one day. Anderson also some experience in that recruiting area – coaching at New Mexico from 1999-2001. I think this is going to work out for both parties.

Grade: B

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Coordinator Clark Lea greets players during warmups before the Blue-Gold Game at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Vanderbilt Commodores
Out: Derek Mason
In: Clark Lea

I actually think this could end up being a really good hire by Vanderbilt. Prior to working at Notre Dame, Lea has experience developing all-conference players like Zaire Franklin and Marquel Lee at smaller programs in Syracuse and Wake Forest. While he was the defensive coordinator at Notre Dame from 2018-20, the Fighting Irish’s defense ranked in the top 25 in total defense and top 15 in scoring defense each season. Lea is also from Nashville and played at Vanderbilt. He’s going to know the area very well and he ought to be able to relate to college players with him being so young – just 38 years old. Lea’s defensive background could also be very beneficial in the SEC, which has produced a ton of talent on that side of the ball. I think he’s a terrific fit for this job.

Grade: B-

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53