2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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College football coaching carousel grades

Movie quote of the day:

“There’s nothing new in human experience, Mr. Tully. Each generation thinks it invented debauchery or suffering or rebellion, but man’s every impulse and appetite from the disgusting to the sublime is on display right here all around you. So, before you dismiss something as boring or irrelevant, remember, if you truly want to understand the present or yourself, you must begin in the past. You see, history is not simply the study of the past. It is an explanation of the present.”

— Paul Hunham, “The Holdovers” (2023)

Washington Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer looks on against the Michigan Wolverines during the second quarter in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

This has easily been the craziest coaching carousel that I’ve ever witnessed, at both the collegiate and professional levels. I originally planned to publish this post closer to New Year’s Day and the main point that I was going to make was how this phase of conference realignment impacted this coaching carousel. Specifically, with Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, who’s also an alumnus of the school, leaving for the Michigan State vacancy. While that’s still a relevant takeaway, the bigger news was Nick Saban’s unexpected retirement.

Saban’s decision to retire shook up the college football landscape, which caused a ripple effect that created several new vacancies across the country. Then you had the ongoing question of whether or not Jim Harbaugh would return to the NFL. Those are the main reasons why this post is coming so much later than it has in the past. Now that Harbaugh is officially back in the NFL and Michigan has replaced him, I feel confident in (finally) publishing this post. I don’t see any reason to expect new vacancies.

This coaching carousel wasn’t only loaded with movement, but I think several schools hired quality coaches. That’s something we didn’t get last year. I’m curious to see how these coaches fare at their new schools these next few years

Washington Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer runs onto the field for the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama Crimson Tide
Out: Nick Saban
In: Kalen DeBoer

I don’t know if DeBoer will be a good cultural fit at Alabama. He’s primarily coached in the Midwest and along the West Coast. However, DeBoer’s track record is outstanding. He has an overall record of 104-12 (yes, you’re reading that right) and just took Washington to the national championship. DeBoer’s offenses also haven’t ranked lower than No. 42 in scoring since 2018. It’ll be difficult to follow Saban, but I can see him having success.

Grade: A-

San Jose State Spartans head coach Brent Brennan reacts against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Wildcats
Out: Jedd Fisch
In: Brent Brennan

This might be my least favorite hire of this coaching carousel. Arizona was heading into the 2024 with a lot of momentum after returning a lot of production from a team that won 10 games, along with the move to the Big 12 in July. Losing Fisch to Washington definitely hurts, but I don’t know if hiring Brennan to replace him is the right move. He’d been at San Jose State for seven years and his best season was during the shortened 2020 season.

Grade: C

Boise State Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson gestures in the second half against the UNLV Rebels during the Mountain West Championship at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State Broncos
Out: Andy Avalos
In: Spencer Danielson

The job that Danielson did at Boise State this past season can’t be understated. The Broncos fired Andy Avalos after 10 games and Danielson led them to a fifth Mountain West championship as the interim head coach. Danielson has been at Boise State since 2017 — the last three seasons as defensive coordinator — and helped assemble some pretty good defenses. He also has roots on the West Coast, which will help with recruiting.

Grade: B

New England Patriots offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien directs the office on a drill during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Boston College Eagles
Out: Jeff Hafley
In: Bill O’Brien

I realize that I’m in the minority, but I think O’Brien is a good coach. He was a successful head coach in the NFL. His downfall was when he also became the general manager in Houston. Don’t forget that he also had a winning record two seasons as Penn State’s head coach, when the program was coming off the Jerry Sandusky scandal and going through a tumultuous time. O’Brien is from the Boston area, too. I think this a great hire by Boston College.

Grade: B

Penn State Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Manny Diaz walks on the field during the fourth quarter of the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Duke Blue Devils
Out: Mike Elko
In: Manny Diaz

I understand that Duke isn’t exactly the most attractive football job in the ACC, but this hire leaves a lot to be desired. Diaz doesn’t have a good track record as a head coach. He spent three seasons as the man in charge in Miami between 2019-21, where he posted a record of 21-15. Being from South Florida, I’m also not sure that he’s a good cultural fit for the Blue Devils. Diaz is a respected recruiter and defensive mind, though.

Grade: C+

Tulane Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz reacts to a pass interference call on Tulane Green Wave against the Southern Methodist Mustangs during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Cougars
Out: Dana Holgorsen
In: Willie Fritz

Fritz is exactly the type of coach that Houston needs now that it’s made the jump to the Power 5. He has plenty of experience building competitive programs at different levels of college football. Fritz managed to win at least nine games in a season at both Tulane and Georgia Southern, and won two FCS national championships at Sam Houston State. He also has coaching roots in Texas, so that should be beneficial at Houston when it comes to recruiting.

Grade: A-

Holy Cross football coach Bob Chesney talks to the team after a spring game. Mandatory credit: Worcester Telegram

James Madison
Out: Curt Cignetti
In: Bob Chesney

This is a very outside-the-box hire by James Madison. Chesney isn’t even 50 years old yet and has plenty of experience as a head coach. He made the FCS playoffs in four of his six seasons at Holy Cross, and even had success at Assumption and Salve Regina. Chesney has also spent the majority of his coaching career in the Mid-Atlantic and along the East Coast, so he should be familiar with the area in order to bring some talented recruits to the Dukes.

Grade: B+

James Madison Dukes head coach Curt Cignetti walks the sideline during a game against the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

Indiana Hoosiers
Out: Tom Allen
In: Curt Cignetti

Considering that Indiana has had just three winning seasons since 2000, I’m not sure it could’ve asked for a better hire than Cignetti. He did an incredible job at James Madison. He won an FCS national championship in 2019, and then won 19 games each of the last two seasons when the program made the jump to the FBS level. Cignetti also had success as a head coach at both IUP and Elon. We’ll see if he can be competitive in a loaded Big Ten East division.

Grade: A-

Michigan Wolverines interim head coach Sherrone Moore talks on the sideline during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Wolverines
Out: Jim Harbaugh
In: Sherrone Moore

I don’t blame Michigan for promoting internally. It’s awfully late in the coaching carousel to find a quality candidate and the school’s reported first choice was DeBoer, who was already off the board. Moore has done a great job as Michigan’s offensive line coach. He was also impressive this past season when Harbaugh was suspended and he had to fill in as the interim head coach. I think Moore is deserving of the opportunity.

Grade: B

Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan State Spartans
Out: Mel Tucker
In: Jonathan Smith

Like DeBoer, I don’t know if Smith will be a cultural fit at Michigan State. He’s from California and has never had a coaching job east of Montana. Smith’s track record is excellent, though. He worked under Chris Petersen before becoming the head coach at Oregon State, where he resurrected a program that had won just 12 games between 2014-17. Smith knows how to develop talent, which should go a long way to making the Spartans competitive again.

Grade: A-

Oklahoma Sooners offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby before the game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Out: Zach Arnett
In: Jeff Lebby

I was underwhelmed with Mississippi State’s decision to hire Lebby. He’s had success as an offensive coordinator, but there was tension between him and the Oklahoma fanbase. Lebby’s tenure with the Sooners ended poorly because of that. With the Bulldogs being an attractive SEC job, I just have a hard time believing Lebby was the best they could do. Hiring Lebby could set them back with the conference adding Oklahoma and Texas in 2024.

Grade: C

Texas co-defensive coordinator Jeff Choate (right) speaks with linebacker David Gbenda (33) during an open practice session for fans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Wednesday, Aug., 18, 2021. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY NETWORK

Nevada Wolf Pack
Out: Ken Wilson
In: Jeff Choate

I actually think hiring Choate was a good decision by Nevada. He grew up in Idaho and played college ball in Montana. Choate has spent a good chunk of his career coaching at western schools. He feels like a very good cultural fit for Nevada, and he should be familiar with the recruiting area. Choate also had success as a head coach at Montana State between 2016-19, where he posted a record of 19-9 in his last two seasons.

Grade: B+

Virginia Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall looks on from the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

New Mexico Lobos
Out: Danny Gonzales
In: Bronco Mendenhall

Hiring Mendenhall could be the biggest steal of this coaching carousel. Mendenhall has been a successful head coach at both BYU and Virginia. He’s from Utah and spent a lot of time coaching at western schools, including five seasons at New Mexico. Mendenhall ought to know the recruiting area well enough to revive a Lobos program that has posted a record of 47-119 since 2008. My only concern is that he hasn’t been a head coach since 2021.

Grade: B+

Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun celebrates a touchdown against the Maryland Terrapins during the first half at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Northwestern Wildcats
Out: Pat Fitzgerald
In: David Braun

I was very impressed with what Braun was able to do at Northwestern this past season. The Wildcats haven’t been competitive recently — posting a record of 14-31 since 2019 — and were in a terrible spot as a program entering this season. Nobody, myself included, expected Northwestern to be competitive and Braun managed to win eight games as the interim head coach. Being from Wisconsin, I also think he’s a great cultural fit for Northwestern.

Grade: B

Oregon State interim defensive coordinator Trent Bray looks on during the Oregon State spring football game at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State Beavers
Out: Jonathan Smith
In: Trent Bray

It’s a shame that conference realignment all but forced Smith to leave Oregon State for Michigan State. However, I’m not sure that the Beavers could’ve hired a better replacement for Smith. Bray had been on Smith’s staff since 2018, spending the last two seasons as defensive coordinator. Bray will be able to bring continuity to a program that’s had some success in recent years. He’s also an Oregon State alumnus, so he’ll be a great cultural fit.

Grade: B+

Kent State Golden Flashes head coach Sean Lewis reacts following a penalty in favor of the Washington Huskies during the second quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego State Aztecs
Out: Brady Hoke
In: Sean Lewis

I’m not as high on Lewis as other people. I wasn’t impressed with him as a head coach during his time at Kent State, where he posted a record of just 24-31 in five seasons. He wasn’t even impressive as Colorado’s offensive coordinator this past season — averaging just 28.2 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Considering Lewis is from the Midwest, I also don’t think he’s a very good cultural fit for San Diego State.

Grade: C+

New Syracuse Orange head coach Fran Brown speaks during a press conference at the John A. Lally Athletics Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Syracuse Orange
Out: Dino Babers
In: Fran Brown

This is an interesting decision by Syracuse. Brown has been a position coach for the majority of his career, and he spent only one season as a defensive coordinator in 2019. Going from being a position coach to a head coach is quite the jump for a young coach like Brown. The good news is that he’s from New Jersey and has deep ties to the recruiting area, which will be beneficial to the Orange. I’m just not sure Brown is ready to be a head coach.

Grade: C+

Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Elko leads his team out prior to the first quarter against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M Aggies
Out: Jimbo Fisher
In: Mike Elko

Texas A&M wanted to make a big splash and I think it made one by hiring Elko. As a coordinator, he worked for quality head coaches like Dave Clawson, Brian Kelly, and Jimbo Fisher before becoming the head coach at Duke, where he won 16 games in two seasons. If Elko’s starting quarterback hadn’t gotten hurt this past season, he might’ve won 10 games. The Aggies have deep NIL pockets, so I expect Elko to continue to lure high-profile recruits.

Grade: B+

Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive coordinator Gerad Parker talks to players during warmups before the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Trojans
Out: Jon Sumrall
In: Gerad Parker

Hiring from the same coaching tree has benefitted Troy in recent years (Neal Brown and Jon Sumrall). I’m not convinced that Parker is ready to be a head coach, though. His track record as an offensive coordinator has been mixed during his tenures at both West Virginia and Notre Dame. With Parker being from the south, he should be a good cultural fit with the Trojans. He also has a good reputation as a recruiter.

Grade: C+

Troy Trojans head coach Jon Sumrall (middle) runs on the field before the game against the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane Green Wave
Out: Willie Fritz
In: Jon Sumrall

Sumrall has struck me as a rising coach for the last few years. He’s spent a lot of time as an assistant in the SEC at both Kentucky and Ole Miss. Sumrall was also impressive as Troy’s head coach the last two seasons — posting a record of 23-4. He’s from the south and coached primarily in the south, including at Tulane between 2012-14, so I expect him to be a great cultural fit. I’m very surprised that Power 5 programs didn’t give him a look this coaching carousel.

Grade: A-

DeShaun Foster answers questions from media after he was introduced as the new head football coach of UCLA Bruins during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

UCLA Bruins
Out: Chip Kelly
In: DeShaun Foster

It’s clear why Chip Kelly was trying to leave UCLA. It seems like he put minimal effort in recruiting and on-field preparation, which caused his relationship with the administration to deteriorate. I understand why the Bruins hired Foster, who’s an alumnus of the school. Foster should be a great cultural fit at UCLA and will actually care about the program. My issue is that he’s only been a position coach, so I’m not sure he’s ready to be a head coach.

Grade: C+

Arizona Wildcats head coach Jedd Fisch on the sideline during the second half at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Huskies
Out: Kalen DeBoer
In: Jedd Fisch

Fisch worked primarily in the NFL and the East Coast before arriving at Arizona, so I wasn’t convinced he’d have much success there. Fisch did an incredible job with the Wildcats, though. He inherited a program that had just one winning season between 2016-20 and turned things around just three seasons — winning 10 games in 2023 and making an impact in recruiting. I think hiring Fisch is a great decision by Washington.

Grade: A-

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Don’t rule out Oregon State, Washington State joining the Big 12 and changing the college football landscape forever

Movie quote of the day:

“I hate her. In fact, the day you broke up with her I marked that down on my calendar as a day of rejoicement. I’m going to celebrate it with a cake with her face on it, but instead of eating it, we smash it.”

– Stainer, “She’s Out of My League” (2010)

Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

I was ready to believe that the conference realignment buzz was slowing down. I was under the impression that all that was left to determine was which school The American would add to replace SMU and the fate of Oregon State and Washington State.

However, the conference realignment buzz has cranked back up again, specifically in regards to Oregon State and Washington State. 

The next hearing in the Oregon State/Washington State lawsuit against the Pac-12 is officially set for Nov 14. The hearing will be about who gets control of the Pac-12 while the parties prepare for trial. It could be pivotal for the fate of OSU/WSU.https://t.co/gxnZ4DDITN

— Amanda Christovich (@achristovichh) September 29, 2023

A few weeks ago, those two schools filed a legal complaint against the Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, seeking a temporary restraining order to protect the future of the conference. The basis for this decision comes because Oregon State and Washington State believe that the 10 members that are leaving won’t have the conference’s best interest at heart, even going so far as to believe that those members will vote to dissolve the Pac-12. Basically, Oregon State and Washington State want full control of the conference’s future. A hearing on the matter is slated for Nov. 14. 

This puts those two schools in a precarious situation. As it stands, the Pac-12 champion is going to have a guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff next year. The new format is going to have six guaranteed spots for conference champions (each of the Power 5 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion) and six wild cards. It’s important to know that the 6+6 format isn’t set after next season, and the the CFP management committee has yet to determine if the format will stay the same or change after the Pac-12 lost 10 of its members back in the summer. In fact, the committee punted on making a decision the issue recently. 

Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jaden Robinson (4) breaks up a pass intended for Washington State Cougars wide receiver Josh Kelly (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State and Washington State have a clear path to the CFP unless the format changes, even though they’re the only remaining members in the Pac-12. That will eventually change because the NCAA has a requirement that an FBS conference needs at least eight members, but there’s a two-year grace period. That means ESPN might have to pay about $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State, and potentially to schools like Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, etc. 

Things could obviously change, though. The committee could eventually determine that the Pac-12 will lose its guaranteed spot in the CFP. The problem with that is that there’s no precedent for it. Remember, the old Big East/The American lost its guaranteed spot only because the BCS was scrapped and the CFP was formed, and the powers that be determined there wouldn’t be guaranteed spots in the new postseason format.

There’s also no technical explanation of the differences between the Power 5 and Group of 5 entities, which is a big problem for the committee. It’s likely not going to be able to explain it without referencing the colloquial expression “I know it when I see it” from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964.

The main difference between the different levels of competition in the NCAA (FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III) is mostly the number of scholarships. However, Power 5 and Group of 5 schools have the same number of football scholarships (85). That’s why those schools are considered to be on the same level and are told that they’re competing for the same national championship, even though we all know that’s not true. 

The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is displayed during Big Ten media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This is a significant development. I don’t expect ESPN to willingly pay $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State if the CFP format doesn’t change, and especially if the Pac-12 ever merges with the Mountain West and/or The American.

Oregon State and Washington State are in a pretty strong position, which is why I expect them to use it as leverage for ESPN to pull strings to get them in a Power 5 conference. The most like destination is the Big 12. Oregon State and Washington State are much better fits in that conference than the ACC, Big Ten, or the SEC. The two schools would also be quality additions to the Big 12. Oregon State has a solid football program right now and its baseball team has made it to Omaha, Neb., for the College World Series six times since 2005. Washington State has had a respectable football program for the last 30 years, and has its cool College Gameday tradition.

I think it’s more likely than not that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Big 12. It’ll be much cheaper for ESPN to broadcast their games in the conference at a reduced share (roughly $20 million per school) than it would be to give them a share of the CFP revenue. It would also benefit Oregon State and Washington State in the long-term future to join the Big 12, instead of potentially joining the American or Mountain West.

Another hurdle of a CFP format change: Washington St. & Oregon St. are exploring ways to operate as a 2-school league for 1-2 yrs via NCAA grace period.

CFP must answer:
1 Would their "champion" be eligible for an AQ?
2 Do they each get CFP P5 revenue?https://t.co/vbBNfqXbRy

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 27, 2023

I also wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN waited for the committee to come to a decision on the format for the expanded CFP. If the Pac-12 loses its guaranteed spot, it’ll cost ESPN even less money to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State games in either the Mountain West or The American. That could be problematic, though, because the committee won’t meet again for a while and the clock is ticking. Plus, in order to change the CFP format, there has to be a unanimous decision by the committee, and The American commissioner Mike Aresco has said he won’t vote to change the format. So, that might not be the best course of action.

There could be a lot more riding on this development than just which conference Oregon State and Washington State join. The committee has a huge decision to make these next few weeks when it comes to the CFP format. I don’t think anyone wants to see more substantial changes to the highest level of college football, but I can’t help but see the writing on the wall. It feels like this will be the first step in the Power 5 conferences separating from the Group of 5 conferences or vice versa, which will completely change the college football landscape forever.

There’s been so much tension between the two entities since the CFP was established. The Group of 5 schools only receive 20% of the revenue, and there have even been rumblings of them starting their own playoff format. Unless the committee decides to give more than one Group of 5 conference champion a guaranteed spot in the CFP, which I highly doubt will happen, I think there’s only going to be more division. Regardless of how the committee handles the Pac-12’s situation.

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College football Week 3 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“One day I’ll get you over that wall of anger, and it will be glorious.”

– Allen Gamble, “The Other Guys” (2010)

Week 2 record: 9-3 (75%)
2023 record: 16-8 (66.7%)
All-time record: 952-469 (66.9%)

Saturday:

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) celebrates with his teammates after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Penn State (2-0) at Illinois (1-1)
Memorial Stadium
Champaign, Ill.
Line: Penn State -14.5
Over/under: 48.5

I already wasn’t convinced that Illinois had the offense to pull off the upset this week. I’m also not convinced that the Fighting Illini are good enough defensively. They’re currently allowing 224 yards per game on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry. I expect Penn State to exploit that and lean heavily on its run game, which has averaged 230.5 rushing yards per game so far this season.

Prediction: Penn State 34, Illinois 17

Kansas State Wildcats wide receiver Phillip Brooks (8) scores a 39-yard touchdown near the end of the second quarter against the Troy Trojans at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

No. 15 Kansas State (2-0) at Missouri (2-0)
Memorial Stadium
Columbia, Mo.
Line: Kansas State -3.5
Over/under: 47.5

I just don’t think Eli Drinkwitz is much of a head coach. Missouri has played 11 ranked teams during his tenure, and he has a record of 2-9 and has been outscored 418-213 in those games. Kansas State has the significantly better head coach in Chris Klieman. The Wildcats also have better personnel in the trenches and the quarterback advantage in Will Howard. They should be able to get the win.

Prediction: Kansas State 28, Missouri 21

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart reacts to the game against the Ball State Cardinals during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

South Carolina (1-1) at No. 1 Georgia (2-0)
Sanford Stadium
Athens, Ga.
Line: Georgia -27.5
Over/under: 54.5

I have a very difficult time seeing South Carolina winning this game. The Gamecocks’ offensive line has been a major problem this season – allowing 10 sacks and paving the way for a rushing attack that’s averaging 1.51 yards per carry. The Bulldogs have plenty of talented players along their defensive front. It’s going to be incredibly difficult for South Carolina to move the ball offensively.

Prediction: Georgia 38, South Carolina 17

Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) runs with the ball for a touchdown during the first half against the UC Davis Aggies at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego State (2-1) at No. 16 Oregon State (2-0)
Reser Stadium
Corvallis, Ore.
Line: Oregon State -24.5
Over/under: 48.5

I understand that Oregon State hasn’t played the best competition, but it’s been impressive so far this season. The Beavers have outscored their competition 97-24. D.J. Uiagalelei has also looked like a much better quarterback than his days at Clemson – completing 73.6% of his passes and averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. I doubt San Diego State is a good enough team to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Oregon State 35, San Diego State 14

North Carolina Tar Heels linebackers Kaimon Rucker (25) and Randy Caldwell (44) react in the third quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota (2-0) at No. 20 North Carolina (2-0)
Kenan Stadium
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Line: North Carolina -7.5
Over/under: 50.5

I doubt Minnesota is good enough offensively to outscore Drake Maye and North Carolina. The Golden Gophers have struggled offensively so far this season – averaging 19 points per game and 4.6 yards per play. The Tar Heels have averaged 33.1 points per game and nearly 6.0 yards per play at home since the start of last season. It’s going to be very difficult for Minnesota to win this game.

Prediction: North Carolina 31, Minnesota 21

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) rushes against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane during the second quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 Washington (2-0) at Michigan State (2-0)
Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, Mich.
Line: Washington -16.5
Over/under: 55.5

This might be the easiest game to pick. Michigan State technically hasn’t fired Mel Tucker, but he was suspended for the foreseeable future. I have no idea what to expect from the Spartans. Traveling across the country won’t make things easy for Washington, but it should still win this game. The Huskies have one of the best offenses in the country. I doubt Michigan State will be able to keep up.

Prediction: Washington 38, Michigan State 22

Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton III (7) passes the ball against the Austin Peay Governors during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Tennessee (2-0) at Florida (1-2)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Gainesville, Fla.
Line: Tennessee -6.5
Over/under: 58.5

I’m not sure just how good Tennessee is yet. I also think Billy Napier really needs to win this game, so I’m expecting a strong showing from Florida. I still expect the Volunteers to win, though. Tennessee has one of the best run games in college football – averaging 257.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry. I think the Gators will have a difficult time defending the Volunteers’ rushing attack.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Florida 24

Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin looks on against the Tulane Green Wave during the first half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia Tech (1-1) at No. 17 Ole Miss (2-0)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, Miss.
Line: Ole Miss -18.5
Over/under: 63.5

I don’t think Georgia Tech is getting enough credit from Vegas. The Yellow Jackets have been a much better team since Brent Key took over as head coach last season. I also think they’re good enough offensively to win this game if their defense can get stops. I’m not convinced that’ll happen, though. Ole Miss has averaged 35.9 points per game at home since Lane Kiffin became head coach.

Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Georgia Tech 27

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback K.J. Jefferson (1) passes in the third quarter against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

BYU (2-0) at Arkansas (2-0)
Razorback Stadium
Fayetteville, Ark.
Line: Arkansas -8.5
Over/under: 47.5

BYU just hasn’t been very impressive against lesser competition this season. Therefore, I have to go with Arkansas to win this game. The Razorbacks have a record of 10-4 at home since 2021. I also think they’re going to have the quarterback advantage in this matchup with K.J. Jefferson, who’s played very well in two games. I’m not convinced that the Cougars are talented enough to win.

Prediction: Arkansas 31, BYU 17

West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene (6) throws a pass against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the second quarter at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Pitt (1-1) at West Virginia (1-1)
Milan Puskar Stadium
Morgantown, W.Va.
Line: West Virginia -2.5
Over/under: 47.5

This feels like a game West Virginia has had circled since last year. I also think Neal Brown knows he needs to win this game to keep his job. I’ll take the Mountaineers to win at home. Pitt’s defense has struggled to defend the run this season – allowing 216 yards on the ground to Cincinnati last week. I expect West Virginia to lean heavily on its run game, which averages 225 yards per game.

Prediction: West Virginia 24, Pitt 20

TCU Horned Frogs running back Trey Sanders (2) scores a touchdown in the game against the Colorado Buffaloes at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

TCU (1-1) at Houston (1-1)
TDECU Stadium
Houston
Line: TCU -7.5
Over/under: 63.5

It’d be just like Dana Holgorsen to lose to Rice because he was looking ahead to TCU. However, I don’t think Houston is good enough defensively to win this game. The Cougars have allowed 6.1 yards per play through their first two games. The Horned Frogs have played well offensively so far – averaging 41.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. I’ll go with TCU to win in a shootout.

Prediction: TCU 38, Houston 31

Game of the week:

LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) looks to pass the ball during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

No. 14 LSU (1-1) at Mississippi State (2-0)
Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, Miss.
Line: LSU -9.5
Over/under: 54.5

I’m surprised LSU is such a heavy favorite on the road. Mississippi State has given the Tigers fits in recent years. Plus, LSU hasn’t been impressive defensively so far – allowing 6.4 yards per play and 4.7 yards per rush. I don’t think that bodes well before playing the Bulldogs’ offense, which averages 6.7 yards per play and 221.5 yards per game on the ground. I’m going with the upset.

Prediction: Mississippi State 34, LSU 27

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Adding Cal, Stanford, SMU isn’t going to save the ACC

Movie quote of the day:

“If in doubt, Meriadoc, always follow your nose.”

– Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” (2001)

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at the Westin Hotel in Charlotte. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

I realize how late I am to write about the recent conference realignment news from the ACC, but I’ve been swamped with other projects. I finally found the time to write my thoughts. 

Even though the news the last few weeks has been devoted to the Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12 (RIP), the ACC found itself in the news for the wrong reasons. Florida State has been vocal about how unhappy it is in the ACC, specifically with the conference’s current revenue distribution and media rights agreement. The Seminoles have even threatened to pay the $120 million exit fee to leave the conference — going so far as to work with a private equity firm to help with costs.

Everyone was so caught up with the exit fee that they ignored the biggest issue facing Florida State, which was the ACC’s grant of rights that doesn’t expire until 2036. The Seminoles were free to pay the exit fee and leave the conference, but it’d be pointless to do so if they couldn’t get out of the grant of rights. If Florida State had left the ACC without getting out of the grant of rights, it’d mean that any media revenue that the school generated would still go to the ACC for the next 13 years. That’s why I never believed the Seminoles were going to leave the conference any time soon. 

The other issue was that there likely wasn’t a conference that would take Florida State right now. I doubt the Big Ten would be interested because the school isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities. Every member of the Big Ten is an AAU member except Nebraska, which was an AAU member at the time it joined the conference. I also think the Big 12 and SEC are content at 16 members…for now. It seems like the Seminoles are stuck.

I bring all that up because I don’t think Florida State is going to stop trying to get out of the ACC. The conference makes substantially less money in media revenue than the Big Ten and SEC. The Seminoles view themselves on the same competitive level as some of the institutions in those conferences. Florida State isn’t going to tolerate the ACC for much longer. If the Seminoles are looking elsewhere, it’s safe to assume that Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and even Notre Dame are doing the same. 

In an effort to either put off the day that those schools leave the conference (or avoid it altogether), the ACC made the decision to expand west by adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. 

It’s final: ACC presidents have approved expansion to add Stanford, Cal and SMU, sources tell @YahooSports, ending a month-long saga into an issue that divided the league.

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 1, 2023

On the surface, I can see why the conference made this decision. Cal and Stanford are excellent academic institutions and are great fits in the ACC because of that. SMU also isn’t an academic slouch and gives the conference a footprint in Texas. Adding those three schools will also lead to $72 million in extra revenue from the TV networks. Cal and Stanford are going to take a significantly reduced share of revenue distribution, and SMU will forgo any revenue for almost a decade. That means more money in the pockets of the other ACC members, so it was a win for all parties. 

The problem with adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU is that they don’t bring much to the table. When was the last time Cal was relevant in a revenue-generating sport? Probably since Aaron Rodgers or Marshawn Lynch played football there. Stanford has pretty much been irrelevant historically in revenue-generating sports, with the exception of the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw years in football. SMU has plenty of boosters with deep pockets, but that’s about all it brings to the table. The Mustangs haven’t even been able to win The American since joining the conference in 2013. 

The other commonality with all three institutions is that, while located in large markets, none of them control their market. TCU has more of a footprint in Dallas than SMU, and even the Horned Frogs are likely behind Texas. For years, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 tried to establish a footprint in the San Francisco Bay Area, but to no avail. 

I just don’t see how these additions are going to lead to anything good for the ACC. I don’t think Cal, Stanford, or SMU will compete in the conference. They’re also not geographic fits and travel costs will be through the roof. For the time being, it probably won’t mean much with those institutions accepting reduced shares of media revenue for the next few years. That’ll send a larger chunk of the metaphorical pie to Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina’s pockets, which should appease everyone in the short term. 

However, when the western schools start receiving larger shares, that’s not going to make Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina very happy. Remember, those were the four ACC members that were vehemently opposed to adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. It wasn’t until a last-minute switch from NC State that the three western schools even had the votes to be accepted into the conference. 

This circus will be fun to watch. #FSU #Clemson #UNC #ACC #PAC12 #Cal #Stanford #SMU #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/LgVQhVXTmI

— Petey Parks (@Football_Dude84) September 1, 2023

Adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU feels like the beginning of the end for the ACC. Once Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina leave for either the Big Ten or SEC, I can’t imagine the ACC survives. The conference doesn’t have much to offer outside of those four schools. The majority of the members that would be left behind are small, private institutions that aren’t big brands or that competitive in athletics. They’re just along for the ride to collect a $30 million check from media partners.

What I’m seeing develop in the ACC is awfully close to what we just saw happen in the Pac-12. For years, the ACC has placed too much of an emphasis on academics. That’s part of the reason why the conference has ranked dead last among Power 5 (4?) conferences in TV viewership for the last few years. The ACC also hasn’t wanted to be associated with conferences/institutions that don’t share the same academic values. That’s why it partnered with the Big Ten and Pac-12 in The Alliance and why the ACC explored a merger with the Pac-12 about a year ago.

Without big brands like Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina, I have a difficult time seeing any TV network paying top dollar to broadcast Boston College, Stanford, SMU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, etc. Keep in mind that the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will likely get the opportunity to re-negotiate new media rights agreements before the ACC can re-negotiate the one that it agreed to in 2016. The conference is going to have to think outside the box to find other revenue streams, which it has started to do, but I’m not convinced it’s going to be enough.

I don’t expect any schools to leave the ACC for at least a few years, and a lot can change in that time, but things don’t look good for the conference right now.

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2023 college football season predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Musn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.”

– Eames, “Inception” (2010)

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart holds the trophy after winning the CFP national championship game against the TCU Horned Frogs at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure I’d be prepared to make my college football season predictions if it wasn’t for the recent conference realignment news. Truthfully, this season has snuck up on me. The news of Oregon and Washington heading to the Big Ten, and Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah going to the Big 12, got the juices flowing and made me eager for the start of the season. I’ve been hustling to get my research done for all Power 5 programs, and the top Group of 5 programs.  

The wait is finally over, though, because Week 1 technically starts this weekend. Even though the matchups aren’t particularly intriguing (aside from Notre Dame facing Navy in Ireland and Ohio playing San Diego State), I wanted to get my predictions finalized before any games were played. I didn’t want any of the results from this weekend to impact my outlook.

My immediate impression for this season is that there are some excellent storylines: Georgia is trying to become the first program to win three-consecutive national championships since Minnesota did it between 1934-36; the Pac-12 is arguably the most compelling Power 5 conference in the wake of its demise; Texas could really be back; Ohio State is trying to get back to being the top dog in the Big Ten; and many others. There’s also a lot of uncertainty at the top of college football, with several programs breaking in new starting quarterbacks.

Remember, we’ve also had plenty of conference realignment beginning this year at both the Power 5 and Group of 5 levels: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now in the Big 12; Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA joined the American; and Liberty, Jacksonville State, New Mexico State, and Sam Houston State joined the Conference USA. I don’t think we’re done with conference realignment either because we still haven’t seen the ramifications of the Pac-12’s demise trickle down to the Group of 5 level. 

There shouldn’t be any shortage of entertainment this season. 

Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners

Award	Winner
Heisman (most outstanding player)	QB Caleb Williams, USC
Maxwell (best player)	Caleb Williams, USC
Davey O’Brien (best quarterback)	Caleb Williams, USC
Doak Walker (best running back)	Blake Corum, Michigan
Fred Biletnikoff (best wide receiver)	Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Bronko Nagurski (defensive player of the year)	Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
Outland (best lineman)	T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
Butkus (best linebacker)	Jeremiah Trotter, Clemson
Jim Thorpe (best defensive back)	CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
Lou Groza (best kicker)	Ryan Coe, North Carolina

Price’s predicted major award winners

I know, I know, no player has won the Heisman Trophy twice since Archie Griffin won it in 1974 and 1975. My readers know that I hate picking chalk, but I think Williams is due to make history this season. Every quarterback in Lincoln Riley’s system has either put up better numbers each year in the system or the best numbers of their college careers. Williams is entering his third year in Riley’s system, dating back to their time at Oklahoma. The last quarterback we saw do that was Baker Mayfield, who won the Heisman in that third year. Williams is also a heavy favorite to win the award.

Michigan has relied heavily on its run game the last two seasons, with its top two rushers accounting for a combined 801 carries. I expect the same to happen this season. Remember, Corum rushed for almost 1,500 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. The only way he might not win the Doak Walker Award is if Michigan manages his workload and gives his backup the same amount of carries. There might be a new quarterback at Ohio State, but I don’t think that’s going to prevent Harrison Jr. from winning the Biletnikoff Award. He’s regarded as the best wide receiver prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft and I think the Ohio State coaching staff is going to find ways to get him the ball.

I had a difficult time giving the Outland Trophy to anyone but Fashanu. Not only is he expected to be the best offensive lineman in the country, but he’s going to pave the way for what should be an excellent rushing attack for Penn State. I struggled with the Lou Groza Award, but I eventually landed on Coe. North Carolina ought to have one of the best offenses in the country and should move the ball with ease, so Coe should see plenty of kicking opportunities.

As for the Nagurski Trophy, I think Verse should be considered the favorite. He’s arguably the best pass rusher in college football after accumulating nine sacks and 17 tackles for loss last season. I couldn’t think of any linebackers with a better chance of winning the Butkus Award than Trotter. He showed a lot of promise last year and I expect him to improve. The best defensive back in the country is arguably McKinstry, so he had to be my pick to win the Jim Thorpe Award. When it comes to defensive backs, I have a lot of trust in Nick Saban to develop them.

Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) throws a pass during the first half of the 2022 Orange Bowl against the Tennessee Volunteers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

ACC

	Team	Record
1	Clemson*	11-2 (7-1)
2	Florida State	10-3 (7-1)
3	North Carolina	10-2 (6-2)
4	Duke	9-3 (5-3)
5	Miami	8-4 (5-3)
6	Louisville	7-5 (5-3)
7	Syracuse	7-5 (4-4)
8	NC State	7-5 (4-4)
9	Pitt	6-6 (4-4)
10	Virginia Tech	7-5 (3-5)
11	Wake Forest	5-7 (3-5)
12	Georgia Tech	4-8 (2-6)
13	Boston College	5-7 (1-7)
14	Virginia	2-10 (0-8)

Price’s ACC projections (* conference championship winner)

It actually wasn’t as easy to pick Clemson to win the ACC this season as opposed to previous seasons. There’s a lot of uncertainty facing the Tigers. Mainly, how much will Cade Klubnik improve as a quarterback and whether he’ll mesh with new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. However, Clemson should still have the most talented team in the conference. The Tigers also benefit from playing Florida State, North Carolina, and Notre Dame at home. I’m not convinced Clemson can make the College Football Playoff, but a trip to the Orange Bowl is a reasonable expectation. 

If any team is going to beat out Clemson to win the ACC, I think it’s Florida State. The Seminoles are returning a lot of talent from a team that won 10 games last year. However, I’m not ready to believe that head coach Mike Norvell has the program ready to take the next step. North Carolina is certainly talented enough to win the conference, but I have reservations about its defense, which allowed 31.3 points per game last year against FBS competition. Having Drake Maye at quarterback will put the Tar Heels in a good spot to win a lot of games, though. 

I’m going out on a limb and picking Duke to improve from last year, even though its schedule is going to be incredibly difficult. I think head coach Mike Elko has the Blue Devils heading in the right direction. We’re going to find out just how good of a coach Mario Cristobal is, but there’s too much talent on Miami’s roster for the team to be as bad as it was last year. Even though I’m high on Jeff Brohm as a head coach, I think Louisville’s quarterback situation could hold the team back. I’m not convinced that Syracuse is going to improve much after sneaking up on the ACC last year.

I don’t know how good NC State or Virginia Tech are going to be, but both teams have manageable non-conference schedules. I think that’ll propel them to bowl eligibility. This could be a long season for Pitt. The Panthers have a brutal non-conference schedule and are losing a lot of production from last year. I think Pat Narduzzi deserves the benefit of the doubt, though. Dave Clawson and Wake Forest will likely have a difficult time getting to an eighth-straight bowl game without quarterback Sam Hartman.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12

	Team	Record
1	Texas*	11-2 (8-1)
2	Texas Tech	9-4 (7-2)
3	Kansas State	9-3 (6-3)
4	Oklahoma	9-3 (6-3)
5	TCU	8-4 (5-4)
6	UCF	7-5 (5-4)
7	Baylor	7-5 (5-4)
8	Oklahoma State	8-4 (5-4)
9	Kansas	7-5 (4-5)
10	West Virginia	6-6 (4-5)
11	BYU	5-7 (3-6)
12	Houston	4-8 (2-7)
13	Cincinnati	4-8 (2-7)
14	Iowa State	3-9 (1-8)

Price’s Big 12 projections (* conference championship winner)

I realize that college football fans are fatigued with Texas. Time and time again the Longhorns have entered the season with so much hype only to fall on their faces by the end. However, I think this team is different. Steve Sarkisian has done an excellent job assembling talent. I think Texas has the right pieces both on the perimeter and in the trenches to make a run at the Big 12 championship. I also like the options the Longhorns have at quarterback in Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning. If either of them play at a high level, Texas has a chance to make the Playoff. 

I’ve been talking myself into Texas Tech recently. The Red Raiders are returning a lot of production from last year. They also benefit from playing Kansas State and TCU at home. This will likely be Texas Tech’s best chance to win the Big 12 since the Mike Leach era. I expect Kansas State to be near the top of the conference despite the departure of running back Deuce Vaughn. The Wildcats might have the best offensive line and defensive line combination in the Big 12, besides Texas. Quarterback Will Howard improved a lot last year, too. Kansas State has a good chance to defend the conference title. 

I expect Oklahoma to show improvement in Brent Venables’ second season. The Sooners have too much talent to finish below .500 again. TCU likely takes a step back (maybe even further than I think) after so much going its way last year and losing a lot of production from that team. UCF will have its growing pains in Year 1 in the Big 12. The Knights are a talented team and Gus Malzahn is a proven head coach, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor finishes lower than seventh, but I’m banking on Dave Aranda to turn things around. I’m very uncertain about Oklahoma State, but its non-conference schedule is manageable. Mike Gundy also seems to surprise everyone when expectations are low.

Kansas won’t be able to surprise anyone this year. However, I doubt the Jayhawks regress much. Jalon Daniels is a very underrated quarterback and Kansas is returning a lot of production from last year. I’m more optimistic about West Virginia than I should be, even though I have no trust in Neal Brown and his staff. The Mountaineers are returning several key players in the trenches and have a good backfield. I feel like that should be enough to get WVU to bowl eligibility. After the recent news out of the program, I’ll be very surprised if Iowa State doesn’t finish near the bottom of the Big 12.

Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) stiff arms Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back Malcolm Hartzog (13) in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten

	East Division	Record	West Division	Record
1	Michigan*	12-1 (8-1)	Wisconsin	10-3 (7-2)
2	Ohio State	11-1 (8-1)	Iowa	9-3 (6-3)
3	Penn State	10-2 (7-2)	Minnesota	7-5 (5-4)
4	Maryland	8-4 (5-4)	Illinois	6-6 (4-5)
5	Michigan State	6-6 (4-5)	Nebraska	6-6 (4-5)
6	Indiana	3-9 (1-8)	Purdue	5-7 (3-6)
7	Rutgers	3-9 (1-8)	Northwestern	2-10 (0-9)

Price’s Big Ten projections (* conference championship winner)

Michigan has proven the last two seasons that it runs the Big Ten. I see no reason to think otherwise this season. The Wolverines are returning a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy and leading rusher Corum. They also have the right pieces in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Michigan benefits from playing Ohio State at home, too. I’m not convinced that the Wolverines will finish the regular season undefeated like last year, but I expect them to win the Big Ten and be in the Playoff conversation for a third-straight season. 

Ohio State has what it takes to win the Big Ten from a talent standpoint. I’m not sure I trust Ryan Day to do it, though. The Buckeyes have been passed over by Michigan recently. Plus, Ohio State is breaking in a new quarterback and I don’t know what to expect. The next team that I think can win the Big Ten is Penn State. This could be the best collection of talent the Nittany Lions have had in recent years. Penn State is in great shape in the trenches, backfield, and secondary. My concern with the Nittany Lions is their uncertainty at the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

I’m expecting Luke Fickell to have a smooth transition in his first year at Wisconsin. There will be growing pains, but Fickell brought in a nice haul of players from the transfer portal. The Badgers also benefit from being in the West division. Maryland actually has some talent on its roster, but it’s in one of the most difficult divisions in college football. The Terrapins should consider it a success if they get to eight wins. I’m not sure how good Iowa or Minnesota will be this season, but their schedules are manageable. 

I’m tired of Bret Bielema proving me wrong every year, which is why I have Illinois getting to bowl eligibility. I’m very curious to see how much success Matt Rhule has in his first year at Nebraska. I think he’s inheriting some talent and he brought in a good transfer portal class. Mel Tucker likely has to get Michigan State to bowl eligibility to have a chance to keep his job. That’s not out of the question since the Spartans face Washington, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, and Penn State all at home. I expect Purdue to struggle in Ryan Walters’ first season as head coach. 

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts to a touchdown against the Utah Utes in the first quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 (RIP)

	Team	Record
1	USC*	11-2 (8-1)
2	Washington	10-3 (7-2)
3	Utah	10-2 (7-2)
4	Oregon	10-2 (7-2)
5	Oregon State	9-3 (6-3)
6	UCLA	8-4 (5-4)
7	Washington State	6-6 (4-5)
8	Arizona	6-6 (4-5)
9	Cal	5-7 (3-6)
10	Arizona State	4-8 (2-7)
11	Colorado	3-9 (1-8)
12	Stanford	2-10 (0-9)

Price’s Pac-12 projections (* conference championship winner)

It’s a shame that in the last year of the Pac-12 (as we know it) the conference is at its most interesting. I had a difficult time picking against USC to win the Pac-12 this season. The Trojans are returning the Heisman Trophy winner from last year in Williams. They also return a lot of production and brought in a strong transfer portal class. My only reservation is USC’s defense, which struggled at times a season ago. At the end of the day, the Trojans are going to be a talented team. I also trust Riley, who’s never won fewer than 10 games in a full season as a head coach. 

The top of the Pac-12 is loaded with quality teams in Washington, Utah, and Oregon. Each of those teams are returning great quarterbacks and have enough talent to win a lot of games. Each of those teams also play each other, too, including USC. It’s going to be a gauntlet for the teams at the top of the conference. I give the slight edge to the Huskies as the team that’s going to be in the Pac-12 Championship because they get Oregon and Utah at home. However, if either the Utes or Ducks are in the conference championship, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. 

I also wouldn’t sleep on Oregon State as a team that could win the Pac-12. Jonathan Smith has done an excellent job building up the Beavers, and they made an upgrade at quarterback by grabbing D.J. Uiagalelei from the transfer portal. I expect UCLA to regress a little bit, but Chip Kelly has that program in a good spot. I think the Bruins will be fine. Arizona and Washington State have what it takes to finish higher in the Pac-12 standings. Both teams are going to be scrappy, but I’m not convinced they have the horses on their roster to hang with the top teams in the conference.

With the exception of Stanford, I think the bottom of the Pac-12 is somewhat strong. Cal and Arizona State have enough talent to get to bowl eligibility, but I need to see it happen. Everyone is going to be interested in watching Deion Sanders in his first year as Colorado’s head coach. The Buffaloes have some talent after hauling in the No. 1 transfer portal class. I just have a hard time seeing Sanders turning things around there in a single offseason after the program went 1-11 last year. 

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jase McClellan (2) runs the ball against Kansas State Wildcats Kansas State Wildcats safety VJ Payne (19) during the second half in the 2022 Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

SEC

	East Division	Record	West Division	Record
1	Georgia	12-1 (8-0)	Alabama*	12-1 (7-1)
2	Tennessee	9-3 (5-3)	LSU	10-2 (6-2)
3	Florida	6-6 (4-4)	Texas A&M	10-2 (6-2)
4	Kentucky	7-5 (3-5)	Ole Miss	8-4 (4-4)
5	South Carolina	6-6 (3-5)	Arkansas	7-5 (3-5)
6	Missouri	4-8 (1-7)	Mississippi State	7-5 (3-5)
7	Vanderbilt	5-7 (1-7)	Auburn	6-6 (2-6)

Price’s SEC projections (* conference championship winner)

I went back and forth on which team to pick to win the SEC. I eventually landed on Alabama. Contrary to what some people think, I don’t believe the Nick Saban dynasty is over. The Crimson Tide had some bad luck last year — losing two games by a total of four points. This Alabama team will likely have a formidable rushing attack, which shouldn’t be overlooked. The best Saban-coached teams had run-heavy offenses. I also think Saban revamping his coaching staff by hiring Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele as his coordinators could rejuvenate the Crimson Tide. 

I might not have Georgia winning the SEC, but I’m still very high on the Bulldogs. They have a roster loaded with talent. I have no doubt that Kirby Smart will just reload after losing so many players to the NFL last year. I think the pundits are a little too high on LSU entering this season. The Tigers were eight points away from being a 7-5 team last year. I expect LSU to progress under Brian Kelly, but I think the program is at least another year from potentially being a national championship contender. 

I’m going to bet on Jimbo Fisher to get Texas A&M back on track this season. He’s too good of a head coach and the Aggies have too much talent to have another disastrous season like they did last year. I don’t anticipate Tennessee to drop off too much despite losing some highly-regarded players to the NFL. Josh Heupel has the Volunteers in a good spot right now, and I think Joe Milton will be a solid quarterback. Ole Miss has a chance to finish higher in the West. The Rebels lost some close games last year and return a lot of production from that team. I also wouldn’t doubt Lane Kiffin.

Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina are all in the same boat. They’re teams with enough talent to win a lot of games, but have incredibly difficult schedules. I wanted to give each of those teams more wins, but struggled to find them. Getting quarterback Devin Leary out of the transfer portal is going to help Kentucky a lot this season. He’s a solid player that should help the Wildcats be competitive. I expect both Mississippi State and Auburn to have growing pains this season since they both have first-year head coaches. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman sings the Notre Dame Alma Mater with his players after the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeated the UNLV Rebels at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame

Projected record: 9-3

I don’t think Notre Dame has received enough credit for how it finished last season. Remember, the Fighting Irish started 0-2, with losses to Ohio State and Marshall, and it felt like they were in for a long season. However, they rebounded and won nine of their last 11 games. Notre Dame is returning a lot of production from last year, and also made a big splash in the transfer portal by landing Hartman. The Fighting Irish have a good chance of making an appearance in a New Year’s Six bowl game, but they have a difficult schedule. They have road games at NC State, Duke, Louisville, and Clemson, along with home games against Ohio State and USC. I think this could be a scenario where Notre Dame is a better team than it was last season, but it doesn’t show up in the win column. 

UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) celebrates a touchdown in the first half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

Group of 5 representative in the New Year’s Six

Pick: UTSA
Projected record: 11-2

Everyone is going to pick Tulane to be the Group of 5 representative in a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. I wanted to go against the grain and pick UTSA, though. Jeff Traylor has done an excellent job building up the Roadrunners – winning 30 games the last three seasons. UTSA also returns a lot of experience and production on both sides of the ball. The Roadrunners might also have the best quarterback at the Group of 5 level in Frank Harris, who’s thrown for 71 touchdowns and ran for over 1,600 yards the last three years. Another reason why I like UTSA’s chances of making it to a New Year’s Six bowl game is its move to the American, which will garner more respect from the playoff committee. Seven times in the last nine years has the Group of 5 representative been from the American.

New Year’s Six projections

Bowl game	Team	Team
Sugar (College Football Playoff semifinal)	No. 4 Ohio State	No. 1 Alabama
Rose (College Football Playoff semifinal)	No. 3 Georgia	No. 2 Michigan
Cotton (at-large vs at-large)	Oregon	Texas
Orange (ACC vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC	LSU	Clemson
Fiesta (at-large vs at-large)	Penn State	USC
Peach (at-large vs at-large)	UTSA	Florida State

Price’s projections for the New Year’s Six bowl games

College Football Playoff National Championship

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 1 Alabama

Since not many teams at the top of college football are returning quality starting quarterbacks, I think that means that the teams that run the ball effectively will be in a better position to win. The two teams that I think will be the best in that department are Alabama and Michigan. They’re two of the most complete teams heading into the season. The Crimson Tide and the Wolverines should have imposing rushing attacks, solid defenses, and plenty of talent elsewhere on their rosters. I’m also not going to shortchange either team at the quarterback position. McCarthy performed well for Michigan last year as a sophomore. Alabama has yet to name a starter, but I think it’ll be fine wither either Jalen Milroe or Tyler Buchner. Both players were highly recruited out of high school.

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban looks on against the LSU Tigers during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Let me take you back to late Sept. 2015. Alabama hadn’t won a national championship in two years and sustained a loss to Ole Miss at home in Week 3. Everyone thought the Saban dynasty was over at the time. The Crimson Tide then won 12 games in a row, including the national championship. This year feels similar to 2015. Alabama hasn’t won a national championship in two years and everyone, again, thinks the Saban dynasty is over. I, obviously, don’t share that opinion.

I think the pundits are putting too much stock in the Crimson Tide’s quarterback battle. They’re not the only team at the top of college football breaking in a new starter. Plus, Alabama has won national championships in the Saban era despite not having a great quarterback. Those teams ran the ball effectively, controlled the time of possession, prevented opponents from scoring too many points, and had a quarterback that limited turnovers. I expect the Crimson Tide to return to their roots and play that way this season, which is why I’m picking them to win it all.

Winner: Alabama

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9 Group of 5 teams that could make a New Year’s Six bowl game in 2023

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m not following you, I’m looking for you. There’s a big difference.”

– Martin Stett, “The Conversation” (1974)

Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve had a tumultuous last few weeks in regards to conference realignment, leading to the demise of the Pac-12. That’s where everyone’s attention, including myself, has been recently. It’s to the point that I think people have forgotten that college football games will be played a little over a week from now. It’s hard to believe, right? 

I wanted to start previewing the season by writing a blog post about which Group of 5 teams have a legitimate chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. 

This topic might not draw a lot of interest, but Group of 5 teams have actually had success in the New Year’s Six since getting a guaranteed spot in 2014. Boise State beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl in 2014, Houston beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl in 2015, UCF beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl in 2017, and Tulane beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last year. Cincinnati even snuck into the College Football Playoff in 2021, and almost beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl in 2020. 

So, which Group of 5 teams could find themselves in the New Year’s Six? I did my best to narrow it down to nine teams (of 64) Remember, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now Power 5 schools, but Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State are making the jump from FCS to Group of 5. 

American Athletic Conference

Florida Atlantic Owls wide receiver LaJohntay Wester (1) celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver Tony Johnson (16) during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Atlantic Owls
2022 record: 5-7
Returning production: 83% (68% offensively, 99% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83
Transfer portal rank: No. 79
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

Say what you want about Tom Herman as a head coach, but he had a lot of success when he was previously at the Group of 5 level at Houston. Florida Atlantic also ranks in the top five in all of college football in returning production, which includes its top two rushers, four of its top five pass catchers, and a stout offensive line. One question mark is the quarterback position, but the Owls picked up two Power 5 quarterbacks in the transfer portal in Michael Johnson (Penn State) and Casey Thompson (Nebraska and Texas). FAU has also recruited well in recent years, so Herman should have a talented roster. The Owls have a difficult schedule, featuring non-conference road games against Clemson and Illinois, but I think their conference slate is manageable. I wouldn’t count this team out.

Memphis Tigers tight end Caden Prieskorn (86) and wide receiver Eddie Lewis (18) react after a touchdown during the first half against the North Alabama Lions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis Tigers
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 63% (67% offensively, 59% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.52
Transfer portal rank: No. 73
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Memphis has fallen off since Mike Norvell’s departure since 2020 – posting a record of 21-15 the last three seasons. I’m not ready to start doubting the Tigers, who’ve ranked near the top of The American almost every season since the conference was formed in 2013. One of the main reasons why I like Memphis’ chances to be competitive is because it’s one of 17 teams at the Group of 5 level that returns its head coach, both coordinators, and starting quarterback. Not other team in The American can say that. I think that’s significant because the Tigers also return a good amount of production on both sides of the ball. Memphis has a winnable game against Missouri at a neutral site in Week 4, and get Tulane at home a few weeks later. Those two games will likely determine the Tigers’ season.

Southern Methodist Mustangs tight end RJ Maryland (82) celebrates a touchdown against the Tulane Green Wave during the first half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

SMU Mustangs
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 85.32
Transfer portal rank: No. 15
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I think SMU was much better last season than its record would indicate. The Mustangs lost four games by a combined 18 points despite averaging 37.2 points per game. SMU lost a bit of production, including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, but it also brought in one of the top transfer portal classes. There’s a lot riding on presumed starting quarterback Preston Stone, but he ought to have a good supporting class around him. The Mustangs return their top three rushers and five of their top seven pass catchers. They also bolstered their offensive line by bringing in four transfers from the Power 5 level. SMU’s schedule won’t make things easy, though. The Mustangs have road games against Oklahoma, TCU, and Memphis. This team still has enough talent to make some noise, though.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz during the first quarter against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane Mean Green
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 71% (73% offensively, 68% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.93
Transfer portal rank: No. 83
Vegas projected win total: 9.5

With Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF now in the Big 12, I think Tulane is prepared to take the mantle as the team to beat in The American. We actually saw it happen last year. The Green Wave finished 12-2, won The American, and even defeated USC in the Cotton Bowl. They lost their leading rusher, top two wide receivers, and tackler from last year’s team, but they still have a lot of production returning, including quarterback Michael Pratt and four starters on the offensive line. I also think Tulane’s schedule is manageable. The Green Wave get Ole Miss, UAB, and UTSA at home, and the only road game they won’t have a talent advantage will likely be against Memphis. If they can beat Ole Miss in Week 2, they’re going to be in a good spot to return to a New Year’s Six bowl game.

UTSA Roadrunners wide receiver Zakhari Franklin (4) runs for a touchdown in the second half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

UTSA Roadrunners
2022 record: 11-3
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.82
Transfer portal rank: No. 93
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

UTSA might not return much overall production, but there’s a strong argument to be made that this team has the best quarterback/head coach combination in The American. Jeff Traylor has a record of 30-10 in three seasons with the Roadrunners, including winning at least 11 games each of the last two years. Three-year starting quarterback Frank Harris has also completed 67% of his passes, averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and thrown 71 touchdowns in his career. That’s not even counting leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and three of the team’s top four receivers also return. UTSA has a brutal schedule, though, with road games at Houston, Tennessee, FAU, and Tulane. As long as the Roadrunners have Traylor and Harris, they’re going to have a chance to win a lot of games.

MAC

Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) throws a pass against the San Diego State Aztecs during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo Rockets
2022 record: 9-5
Returning production: 77% (82% offensively, 72% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.99
Transfer portal rank: No. 108 (tied)
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I’d keep an eye on Toledo this season. The Rockets finished last season on a high note – winning seven of their last 10 games – and averaged 31.1 points per game during that stretch. Toledo ranks No. 11 in the country in returning production, including its starting quarterback Dequan Finn, top four leading rushers, top two pass catchers, four starters along the offensive line, and good players from a solid defense. Head coach Jason Candle has also had continuity on his staff, with all of his coordinators entering their fourth season. I also think the Rockets have a manageable schedule. They get Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois at home, and have a winnable road game against Illinois in Week 1. It feels like this is going to be Candle’s best team since he took over at Toledo.

Mountain West

Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) hands off to running back George Holani (24) during the first half against the Utah State Aggies at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State Broncos
2022 record: 10-4
Returning production: 67% (78% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.36
Transfer portal rank: No. 85
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

I don’t care how long it’s been since Boise State was on the national stage. I’m always going to include the Broncos on this list. Boise State actually had a very quiet 10-win season last year, with wins over San Diego State, Fresno State, and Air Force, before losing to Fresno State in a rematch in the Mountain West championship. The Broncos also return a good amount of production, including starting quarterback Taylen Green, their top three rushers, four of their top five receivers, and three starters on the offensive line. Head coach Andy Avalos has also proven that he can field a solid defense. The problem for Boise State is its schedule, which features road trips to Washington, San Diego State, and Memphis, and a home game against UCF just in the first half of the season.

Sun Belt

South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Carter Bradley (2) sets to pass in the first half against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

South Alabama Jaguars
2022 record: 10-3
Returning production: 77% (71% offensively, 82% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.48
Transfer portal rank: No. 78
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

South Alabama has a chance to have a special season in head coach Kane Wommack’s third year with the program. The Jaguars rank No. 13 in returning production from a team that won 10 games last year. That includes their starting quarterback, top three leading rushers, five of their top seven pass catchers, and six of their best defensive players. South Alabama is going to have one of the tougher schedules in college football, though. The Jaguars have road games at Tulane, Oklahoma State, James Madison, and Troy, and then get Louisiana and Marshall at home. It’s going to be difficult for South Alabama to repeat its success from last season, but it’s going to have opportunities to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee with that schedule. That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Troy Trojans linebacker K.J. Robertson (7) runs after the interception against UTSA Roadrunners in the third quarter at Exploria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Trojans
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 60% (64% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.27
Transfer portal rank: No. 82
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Troy is considered the favorite to win the Sun Belt and rightfully so. The Trojans won 12 games last year in Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach, and hung tough against Ole Miss and Appalachian State. They could’ve finished with an even better record. Troy also returns a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including starting quarterback Gunnar Watson and two of its top three rushers. The main reason why I think the Trojans have a chance to get to a New Year’s Six bowl game is their schedule. They have two tough road games at Kansas State and Army in non-conference play, but they get James Madison, South Alabama, and Louisiana at home. Those last three games will likely decide the Sun Belt championship, which is played at the home stadium of the top team in the conference.

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Colorado’s return to the Big 12 shouldn’t surprise anyone

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m gonna go see Dr. Finklestein and I’m gonna tell him we have a whole new bag of issues. We can forget about mom for a while.”

– Jeremy Grey, “Wedding Crashers” (2005)

Colorado Buffaloes mascot Ralphie is run on tp Folsom Field before the game against the USC Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The floodgates have now opened. 

On Thursday, Colorado officially announced that it was leaving the Pac-12 to return to the Big 12, where it was a member for 62 years dating back to the old Big Eight days. Unless you live under a rock, this news shouldn’t come as a surprise. 

OFFICIAL: Colorado is heading back to the Big 12 Conference 🦬

ℹ️» https://t.co/p2XuTLdDWX#GoBuffs pic.twitter.com/M3w4yA9zsp

— Colorado Buffaloes (@CUBuffs) July 27, 2023

The Pac-12 has been trying to negotiate a new media rights deal for over a year and is now less than a year away from the conference’s current deal expiring. There’s also zero indication that the conference has a deal in place or even has any numbers on a potential deal. If the Pac-12 had the framework of a deal that was either more lucrative than the Big 12’s new deal or at least on par with it, it’d be shouting it from the top of the Rocky Mountains. Guess what? It’s not.

The lack of future stability and exposure of the Pac-12 is precisely why the Buffaloes are returning to the Big 12. When the Big 12 leapfrogged the Pac-12 in getting a new media rights deal, I wrote that this could be likely to happen. 

General view of the Colorado Buffaloes mascot in the middle of Folsom Field before the game against the California Golden Bears. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

While Colorado isn’t one of the top brands in college athletics, its return to the Big 12 is significant news. I think the remaining Pac-12 members have been bamboozled by commissioner George Kliavkoff, and his delusions of grandeur, that the conference was going to get a new media rights deal that was on par with the Big Ten’s new deal.

I’ve tried to give the Pac-12 the benefit of the doubt, but I don’t see how it’s able to salvage this situation and prevent its remaining attractive members — Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Utah, and Washington — from jumping ship. With Colorado’s departure, the Pac-12 now has zero leverage in its media rights negotiations. No media company or streaming service is going to pay top dollar for an uncertain product. They’re going to want specifics on which member institutions are committed to the Pac-12, and I highly doubt the conference can provide that information at this point. 

The Pac-12 can try to expand, but its options are limited. San Diego State tried to get the process started last month, but was unsuccessful. Now, the Aztecs have a $34 million buyout if it wants to leave the Mountain West, which I doubt they can afford. I’m not familiar with SMU’s buyout with the American, so I don’t know if that’s a legitimate option or not. Even if the Mustangs are a legitimate option, do they move the needle enough to create more revenue for a media rights deal AND do they want to join the Pac-12 given its uncertainty? I highly doubt it.

Statement from the Pac-12 Conference: pic.twitter.com/up5hjSD1ek

— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) July 28, 2023

The statement from the Pac-12 on Thursday night in response to Colorado’s announcement didn’t convince me that things are going to get better either. 

I don’t think the Big 12 is done expanding. It’s going to make a strong push to add more schools from the Pac-12, especially given the pro rata clause from ESPN. That clause guarantees that when the Big 12 adds a current Power 5 school, that school automatically gets a full revenue share of the Big 12’s media rights deal ($31.7 million). That’s significant news and an incredible ace in the hole for the Big 12.

Do people really think Colorado was the only member of the Pac-12 that was concerned about the future stability and exposure of the conference? No chance. I believe more schools are going to take the guaranteed paycheck from the Big 12 (or potentially one of the other Power 5 conferences), and it shouldn’t come as a surprise when it happens.

The only question I have is how many Pac-12 members follow Colorado out the door in the next few weeks. 

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2023 men’s basketball national championship pick

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.”

– Staff Sgt. Sean Dignam, “The Departed” (2006)

San Diego State Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher smiles on the sideline against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 San Diego State (32-6) vs. No. 4 UConn (30-8)
NRG Stadium
Houston
Line: UConn -7
Over/under: 132.5

What a wild NCAA tournament it’s been. I said that this tournament had the potential to be one of the best we’ve seen, but I didn’t anticipate it to be this crazy. This is the fourth time in NCAA tournament history that the Final Four didn’t feature a No. 1 seed, and it was the first time that none of the No. 1 seeds made it past the Sweet 16. It’s also the first time since 2014, and second time since 1979, that the national championship didn’t feature a No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seed. That doesn’t mean that I don’t think tonight’s game will be entertaining. Both of these teams are well-coached and are playing great basketball right now. 

San Diego State Aztecs guard Matt Bradley (20) and San Diego State Aztecs guard Micah Parrish (3) celebrate against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

This year, San Diego State made it past the Sweet 16 for the first time in program history. The Aztecs now have a chance to win the national championship. Their road to get to this point hasn’t been that impressive, with wins over Charleston, Creighton, and FAU. However, I think San Diego State has proven to be a quality team. The Aztecs made it here because of its defense, which allowed just 60 points per game so far in the tournament. San Diego State hasn’t forced many turnovers, but it’s difficult to score on this team. Opposing teams have shot just 35.9% from the field and 21.5% from 3-point range against the Aztecs. They also held very good offensive teams like Alabama and Creighton to some of their lowest point totals of the season. San Diego State isn’t the best offensive team, but it’s efficient. The Aztecs have made 42% of their shots – 33.3% from 3-point territory – while taking care of the ball. San Diego State will try to slow down the pace of the game, so making shots and getting offensive rebounds is going to be crucial to defeating the Aztecs because there won’t be many possessions.

Connecticut Huskies forward Adama Sanogo (21) reacts after a play against the Miami (Fl) Hurricanes during the second half in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

I suppose you could call UConn one of the usual suspects? Even though the Huskies were down for a stretch, they’re now trying to win their fifth national championship since 1999, and are appearing in their sixth Final Four during the same timeframe. Dan Hurley has done an excellent job rebuilding their program. UConn has been dominant in this tournament. The Huskies have outscored opponents 399-296, which is an average margin of victory of almost 21 points per game, and outrebounded teams 208-154. They’ve also made 49.4% of their shots (40.3% from 3-point territory) compared to their opponents shooting just 34.7% from the field (29% from 3-point territory). Those are substantial differences. UConn is also a balanced team that can win in a variety of ways, whether it’s leaning on big man Adama Sanogo or its deep backcourt. If there’s a weakness with this team, it might be that it hasn’t done the best job of winning the turnover margin. UConn has committed 12.6 turnovers per game and forced just 8.6. That could be problematic if the shots aren’t falling for the Huskies.

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley instructs his team against the Miami (Fl) Hurricanes during the first half in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

I’m struggling to see where San Diego State has an advantage in this matchup. For as good as the Aztecs have been on both ends of the court in the tournament, UConn has been much better. The best way to beat a team that likes to slow down the pace of the game is to make shots and collect rebounds to create more possessions, which the Huskies do splendidly. They’re one of the best shooting and offensive rebounding teams in the country. I think UConn matches up very well with the Aztecs. The Huskies have also been a significantly better offensive team and have the size advantage inside to create more scoring opportunities. San Diego State is going to have to have the game of its life defensively, which feels like a tall order given the way UConn has played the last few weeks. I also think Hurley is a better coach than Brian Dutcher. This feels like a game the Huskies ought to win and I’m not sure it’ll be that close. I think UConn is going to win its fifth national championship in program history.

Prediction: UConn 72, San Diego State 62

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2023 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Am I wrong?”

– Walter Sobchak, “The Big Lebowski” (1998)

I always enjoy March Madness, but I’m particularly looking forward to it this season. I’m getting tired of the NFL offseason storylines, specifically in regards to Aaron Rodgers and whether he’s going to play in 2023. College basketball is going to bring a refreshing change to my life, at least for the next three weeks. It also feels good having my West Virginia Mountaineers in the NCAA tournament after missing out last year, so I’m going to be even more invested.

Last year was one of the worst jobs I did when it came to filling out a bracket. By the end of the first day of last year’s tournament, Kentucky lost to Saint Peter’s and Iowa lost to Richmond. I had each of those teams getting to the Final Four, and I had Kentucky winning it all. Auburn was eliminated in the second round and Arizona lost in the Sweet 16. I had each of those teams getting to the Elite Eight, and I had Arizona playing for the national championship. If you don’t believe just how bad it was, just take a look.

I think I finished last year with a measly 38 points in all my bracket challenges, because I fill out the same bracket with every group. I’m not 100% sure if that’s the worst I’ve ever done, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not. I consider my reputation to be on the line this year. I need to do better and put last year’s abysmal performance behind me. For the first time ever on this blog, I’m going to be picking the First Four matchups. I don’t understand why I haven’t done that in the past.

My opinion of this NCAA tournament is that it’s one of the strongest ones I’ve ever seen. I think there were six or seven teams that had arguments to be No. 1 seeds. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen that before. There are also a plethora of mid-major schools with a lot of experience. I also wouldn’t bet against Big 12 members. The Big 12 has had four different schools make the Final Four in the last six tournaments. The previous two national champions have also come from that conference. March Madness never fails to be entertaining, but I think this tournament has a chance to be special.

Nevada Wolf Pack center Will Baker (50) drives for a layup against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

First Four – Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10)

The computers seem to think that there’s a substantial difference between these teams. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks almost 100 spots higher than Southeast Missouri State in KenPom’s rankings. The Redhawks also don’t rank that high in either adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency. The Islanders also have tournament experience from last year.

Winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

No. 11 Pitt (22-11) vs. No. 11 Mississippi State (21-12)

According to the metrics, Pitt is one of the worst teams in the tournament. The Panthers rank No. 77 in KenPom’s rankings, which is the 17th worst of the entire field. Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks – winners of nine of its last 13 games. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: Mississippi State

No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (19-15) vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (14-20)

The metrics consider these teams to be the two worst teams in the field. I don’t know what to make of them, but it’s telling that Fairleigh Dickinson has won 19 games and ranks No. 312 in KenPom’s rankings. That’s behind Texas Southern, which s entering the NCAA tournament six games below .500.

Winner: Texas Southern

No. 11 Nevada (22-10) vs. No. 11 Arizona State (22-12)

ESPN’s BPI rankings considers these teams to be in the bottom 20 of the tournament field. I guess I’m going to give the slight advantage to Arizona State. The Sun Devils have more talent and they’ve played somewhat well recently. Mountain West teams are also 1-11 in the NCAA tournament since 2016.

Winner: Arizona State

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats talks with Alabama Crimson Tide guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 64

South Regional

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 1 Alabama (29-5) – Birmingham, Ala.

A No. 16 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed only once in the history of the NCAA tournament. I don’t think I’m ever going to predict it to happen. Alabama looked impressive in the SEC tournament and I expect it to cruise to the next round.

Winner: Alabama

No. 9 West Virginia (19-14) vs. No. 8 Maryland (21-12) – Birmingham, Ala.

WVU feels like a team that’s going to benefit by getting out of Big 12 play. I also think this could be a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers. WVU struggles with turnovers, but Maryland isn’t good at forcing them. The Terrapins also don’t shoot the ball or rebound as well as the Mountaineers. I’m going to rely on the better head coach in Bob Huggins.

Winner: West Virginia

No. 12 Charleston (31-3) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (27-6) – Orlando, Fla.

The 5/12 matchups are always enticing to pick the upset, but I think this is a tough matchup for Charleston. San Diego State rebounds very well and likes to slow the game down. The Cougars don’t shoot the ball that well and they haven’t really been challenged in weeks. I expect the Aztecs to give Charleston a lot of problems.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Furman (27-7) vs. No. 4 Virginia (25-7) – Orlando, Fla.

I flirted with picking the upset in this matchup. Furman is a great offensive team that takes care of the basketball. I’m not sure the Paladins shoot well enough from 3-point territory to upset Virginia, though. The Cavaliers commit the fewest amount of turnovers in the country and shoot the ball well. It’s hard to pick against Tony Bennett and Virginia.

Winner: Virginia

No. 11 NC State (23-10) vs. No. 6 Creighton (21-12) – Denver

I’m not much of a believer in either of these coaches. Neither have had much success in the NCAA tournament. However, this feels like Greg McDermott’s best team at Creighton since his son was there in 2014. The Bluejays have also won 12 of their last 16 games. I feel like Creighton should advance because I didn’t think NC State should’ve made the tournament.

Winner: Creighton

No. 14 UC-Santa Barbara (27-7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (22-10) – Denver

I think this is a flawed Baylor team, but it should be able to take care of business in this game. UC-Santa Barbara is one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament and the Bears rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I expect the Gauchos will have a difficult time slowing down Baylor’s offense. The Bears also have a significant talent and coaching advantage.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Utah State (26-8) vs. No. 7 Missouri (24-9) – Sacramento, Calif.

I can’t get a read on Missouri. Winning 24 games and getting to the semifinals of the SEC tournament is an impressive feat, but the metrics consider the Tigers one of the worst teams in the tournament. Utah State ranks 33 spots higher than Missouri in KenPom’s rankings. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with the Aggies.

Winner: Utah State

No. 15 Princeton (21-8) vs. No. 2 Arizona (28-6) – Sacramento, Calif.

Ivy League schools actually have a decent track record in the NCAA tournament. This feels like a tough matchup for Princeton, though. Arizona is loaded with talent and has won 13 of its last 16 games, including winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts after making a basket and being fouled during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-5) – Columbus, Ohio

Texas Southern has the ability to rebound, which you need to do in order to beat Purdue. However, there’s no way I’m picking a team with a losing record to upset a No. 1 seed.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 FAU (31-3) vs. No. 8 Memphis (26-8) – Columbus, Ohio

This feels like a tough matchup for FAU. I think Memphis is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Tigers are loaded with talent and shoot the ball well. The best way for the Owls to win this game is to force turnovers and I don’t think they do that well enough – ranking No. 154 in the country.

Winner: Memphis

No. 12 Oral Roberts (30-4) vs. No. 5 Duke (26-8) – Orlando, Fla.

Oral Roberts is arguably the strongest No. 12 seed in the tournament. The Golden Eagles are an excellent offensive team and are red hot entering the NCAA tournament – winners of 17 games in a row. However, Duke is playing its best basketball right now after winning the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are also going to have a significant talent advantage.

Winner: Duke

No. 13 Louisiana (26-7) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (23-10) – Orlando, Fla.

Even though Tennessee hasn’t been the same since Zakai Zeigler got hurt, I still think it’s plenty talented to win this game. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 58 points per game. I don’t think Louisiana, which ranks No. 57 in adjusted offensive efficiency, is good enough to overcome Tennessee’s defense.

Winner: Tennessee

No. 11 Providence (21-11) vs. No. 6 Kentucky (21-11) – Greensboro, N.C.

I swore off picking Kentucky to go deep in the tournament after it lost to Saint Peter’s last year. However, I like the Wildcats in this matchup. They rank in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and rebound the ball very well. Providence doesn’t shoot the ball that well and I don’t think it’s talented enough to knock off Kentucky.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 14 Montana State (25-9) vs. No. 3 Kansas State (23-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

I’m not convinced that Montana State is good enough offensively to knock off Kansas State, which ranks in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bobcats don’t shoot that well from 3-point territory and aren’t the best rebounding team. Jerome Tang has done an excellent job in his first season with the Wildcats and I don’t see their season ending here.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 10 USC (22-10) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (19-12) – Columbus, Ohio

I think USC is talented enough to win this game, but I’m going to go with Michigan State. I’m a firm believer that coaching matters in March and the Spartans have that advantage with Tom Izzo, who’s lost in the Round of 64 only twice since 2011. I also think traveling across the country might have a negative effect on the Trojans.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 15 Vermont (23-10) vs. No. 2 Marquette (28-6) – Columbus, Ohio

I don’t think this is going to be an easy game for Marquette to win. Vermont is a well-coached team that has been a tough out in the NCAA tournament in its last three appearances. The Golden Eagles are red hot right now, though. They’ve won 19 of their last 21 games, including winning the Big East tournament. I expect Marquette to advance.

Winner: Marquette

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson gives direction during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Northern Kentucky (22-12) vs. No. 1 Houston (31-3) – Birmingham, Ala.

Northern Kentucky got hot in its conference tournament and clinched a tournament bid, but it’s considered one of the worst teams in the field. The Norse rank in the bottom six in both KenPom and ESPN BPI. Houston shouldn’t have many problems in this game.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Auburn (20-12) vs. No. 8 Iowa (19-13) – Birmingham, Ala.

I don’t trust Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament. He’s never made it past the first weekend. I also don’t think Iowa is good enough on the defensive end of the court. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom of the tournament field in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn is the more talented team and has the better head coach in Bruce Pearl.

Winner: Auburn

No. 12 Drake (27-7) vs. No. 5 Miami (25-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I can’t go the entire Round of 64 without picking an upset in a 12/5 matchup. It happens almost on a yearly basis. I think Miami is vulnerable after losing Norchad Omier in the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have also struggled on the defensive end of the court. Drake is a solid, tournament experienced team. I like the Bulldogs to get the upset.

Winner: Drake

No. 13 Kent State (28-6) vs. No. 4 Indiana (22-11) – Albany, N.Y.

This is another matchup that I like the upset. Indiana isn’t playing particularly well entering the tournament. The Hoosiers have won only four of their last eight games and struggled to score points during that stretch. Kent State has hung tough with a lot of quality teams this season and are strong defensively. I think the Golden Flashes find a way to win.

Winner: Kent State

No. 11 Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Iowa State (19-13) – Greensboro, N.C.

Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks, but it’s going to be tough for it to win this game. Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 62.8 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t shoot the ball well, especially from 3-point territory. I think the Cyclones also have the better head coach in T.J. Otzelberger.

Winner: Iowa State

No. 14 Kennesaw State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Xavier (25-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

By the time this game rolls around, Kennesaw State wouldn’t have played in 12 days. I think that’s going to be problematic, especially against Xavier. The Musketeers are a great offensive team and have played well in their last six games. The Owls are going to have a difficult time after so much time off.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State (22-13) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (25-9) – Des Moines, Iowa

I don’t feel good about this, but I’m going to pick Penn State to win this game. The Nittany Lions are red hot – winners of eight of their last 10 games – and came three points shy of winning the Big Ten tournament. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time defending Jalen Pickett, who’s averaged 19.6 points in Penn State’s last 10 games.

Winner: Penn State

No. 15 Colgate (26-8) vs. No. 2 Texas (26-8) – Des Moines, Iowa

I wouldn’t sleep on Colgate in this matchup. The Raiders have made each of the last four NCAA tournaments and rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. However, Texas has won six of its last eight games, including winning the Big 12 tournament. I have to go with the Longhorns.

Winner: Texas

Kansas Jayhawks guard MJ Rice (11) sets the play during the first half against the Texas Longhornsat T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard (22-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (27-7) – Des Moines, Iowa

I’m struggling to see a scenario where a lesser team like Howard knocks off the Big 12 regular season champion, which is an impressive feat considering it was the toughest conference this year. Kansas has too much talent to lose this game.

Winner: Kansas

No. 9 Illinois (20-12) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (20-13) – Des Moines, Iowa

This is a tough game to predict because both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. I’m going to give the advantage to Illinois. Arkansas is hobbling to the tournament – losing 11 of its last 19 games. The Fighting Illini are a well-coached team with plenty of athleticism. I think they’re in a slightly better position right now.

Winner: Illinois

No. 12 VCU (27-7) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I like the upset in this game. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I don’t trust come tournament time. I think VCU is going to want to speed the game up and that style of play is going to give the Gaels some trouble. The Rams also have one of the best defenses in the country – ranking No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: VCU

No. 13 Iona (27-7) vs. No. 4 UConn (25-8) – Albany, N.Y.

I’m kind of tempted to pick Iona solely because of Rick Pitino. He’s one of the best coaches in college basketball history and he has the Gaels playing well right now. However, I’m going to give the advantage to UConn because it’s the more talented team. I also think the Huskies might be the most underrated team in this tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU (21-12) – Denver

Jamie Dixon doesn’t have the best track record in the NCAA tournament, but I’m having a difficult time picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs are a talented team and are excellent defensively. Arizona State doesn’t shoot the ball well, which isn’t going to bode well against TCU. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Horned Frogs.

Winner: TCU

No. 14 Grand Canyon (24-11) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (28-5) – Denver

This feels like a bad matchup for Grand Canyon. There are only four teams in the tournament worse than the Antelopes in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the other side, Gonzaga is one of the hottest teams in the country right now and has averaged 90 points in its last 13 games. The Bulldogs also haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2008.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State (24-9) vs. No. 7 Northwestern (21-11) – Sacramento, Calif.

Northwestern is an excellent defensive team, but Boise State plays an interesting style of basketball. The Broncos shoot the ball well and rank in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think points are going to be hard to come by for the Wildcats, who average only 67.7 points per game and shoot 40.6% from the field.

Winner: Boise State

No. 15 UNC-Asheville (27-7) vs. No. 2 UCLA (29-5) – Sacramento, Calif.

UNC-Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games, but UCLA feels like an under seeded team. The Bruins rank No. 2 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI’s rankings. This feels like it’s going to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: UCLA

Creighton Bluejays guard Ryan Nembhard (2) drives to the basket against Villanova Wildcats guard Justin Moore (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 32

South Regional

No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama – Birmingham, Ala.

I think West Virginia has a chance to make a deep tournament run, but I doubt it’s going to be the team to knock off Alabama. The Mountaineers have been vulnerable defensively – allowing 71 points per game. That’s going to be a problem when going up against the Crimson Tide, who average 82.2 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Virginia – Orlando, Fla.

Both of these teams play a similar style of basketball. They’re going to want to slow the game down. The first team to 60 points might win, honestly. I’ll give the advantage to Virginia. The Cavaliers take care of the basketball very well and shoot the ball better than San Diego State. I also think the Aztecs will struggle to score on Virginia’s defense.

Winner: Virginia

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 3 Baylor – Denver

Despite being a No. 3 seed, I have reservations about Baylor being able to make a deep run. The Bears haven’t been playing well down the stretch – losers of four of their last six games. They’re also not a great defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball very well and does a better job of taking care of the basketball, too. I’ll take the minor upset.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 2 Arizona – Sacramento, Calif.

I don’t think Utah State has the length to contend with Arizona. The Aggies average only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game. I don’t think that’s going to be good enough to knock off the Wildcats, who average 39.4 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). Arizona is one of the better shooting teams in the tournament, too. I expect the Wildcats to advance.

Winner: Arizona

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 1 Purdue – Columbus, Ohio

This is going to be a tough matchup for Purdue. The Boilermakers struggle to take care of the basketball at times and Memphis is excellent at forcing turnovers – averaging 15.3 per game. However, the Tigers are going to have a difficult time defending Zach Edey, who averages 22.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. I’ll go with Purdue to squeak out a win.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 4 Tennessee – Orlando, Fla.

I don’t see Tennessee being able to make a deep run without Zeigler. The Volunteers aren’t the same team without him. This is going to be a tough matchup for them. Duke is playing very well right now and feels like a vastly under seeded team. The Blue Devils are also going to have the talent advantage. I like them to advance to the Sweet 16.

Winner: Duke

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Kansas State – Greensboro, N.C.

I’ve been burned by John Calipari and Kentucky too many times in recent years. So, I’m going to go with Kansas State to win this game. The Wildcats have the ability to match Kentucky’s rebounding production. I also think Kansas State will be able to expose the Wildcats’ defense, which ranks No. 71 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Marquette – Columbus, Ohio

Again, I think coaching matters. I don’t trust Shaka Smart, who has a record of 2-8 in the NCAA tournament since 2011 and is winless since 2013. With only two days to prepare, I’m going to give Izzo the advantage. I think Marquette will have a difficult time scoring on Michigan State’s defense, which allows just 67.4 points per game.

Winner: Michigan State

Drake Bulldogs guard D.J. Wilkins (0) reacts after making a three pointer against the Bradley Braves during the first half in the finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 1 Houston – Birmingham, Ala.

This feels like the furthest Auburn is going to get in the tournament. The Tigers struggle to shoot the ball and have lost nine of their last 13 games. That’s not what it’s going to take to knock off Houston, which ranks No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars are the more athletic team and should be able to take care of business.

Winner: Houston

No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 12 Drake – Albany, N.Y.

I’m going to keep rolling with Drake. The Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in this matchup in Tucker DeVries. Drake is also one of the best shooting teams in the tournament – averaging 47% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point territory. I think the Bulldogs have a good chance of getting past the first weekend.

Winner: Drake

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Xavier – Greensboro, N.C.

While Iowa State is an excellent defensive team, I’m not convinced it has the offense to defeat Xavier. The Musketeers average 81.4 points per game and shoot 49.4% from the floor (39.5% from 3-point territory). They’re also an excellent rebounding team. It feels like too much is going against the Cyclones in this matchup.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas – Des Moines, Iowa

Texas has the depth at guard, especially if Timmy Allen is healthy, to give Pickett and Penn State fits. This feels like the end of the road for the Nittany Lions. I doubt Penn State, which ranks No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency, is good enough on that end of the court to upset the Longhorns. Texas is the much better team and should advance.

Winner: Texas

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates after a play against the Chicago State Cougars in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 1 Kansas – Des Moines, Iowa

Illinois has what it takes to knock off Kansas. I’ve been burned by the Fighting Illini the last two years, though. They’ve been to inconsistent for me to pick the upset. The Jayhawks are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament – allowing only 67.9 points per game. Illinois is going to have a difficult time scoring points.

Winner: Kansas

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 4 UConn – Albany, N.Y.

UConn’s frontcourt is too talented and it has too much length. I have to pick the Huskies to win this game. If the shots aren’t falling for VCU, I doubt it has what it takes to win this game. UConn makes 46% of its shots and still averages 13.4 offensive rebounds per game. That’s very impressive. I don’t think the Rams will be able to overcome that.

Winner: UConn

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 3 Gonzaga – Denver

I’m not convinced that TCU can get past the first weekend without Eddie Lampkin, who recently entered the transfer portal. The Horned Frogs have also lost eight of their last 13 games. Jamie Dixon also hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the tournament since 2009. Gonzaga is the better team right now and I see no reason to pick against the Bulldogs.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 2 UCLA – Sacramento, Calif.

Even though I’m high on Boise State’s offensive ability, this is going to be a tough matchup. UCLA ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 60.3 points per game. I don’t think the Broncos are talented enough to overcome that. I expect the Bruins to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third-straight year.

Winner: UCLA

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Brandon Miller (24) celebrates after a made basket plus one during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Sweet 16

South Regional semifinals – Louisville, Ky.

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama

I actually think Virginia has what it takes to knock off Alabama. The Cavaliers are very good defensively and don’t make mistakes. If they can ugly this game up, the Crimson Tide could be in trouble. I don’t see that happening, though. Alabama is going to have the best player on the court in Brandon Miller. At the end of the day, I don’t think Virginia is good enough offensively to pull off the upset.

Winner: Alabama

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 2 Arizona

I don’t think Creighton is talented enough to knock off Arizona. I’m also struggling to see which part of this matchup the Bluejays have an advantage. The Wildcats are the better shooting and rebounding team, and are the more efficient offensively. Creighton is going to have to play its best game of the season in order to win. That’s a tall order when March rolls around.

Winner: Arizona

Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) reacts in the second half during the semifinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals – New York

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 1 Purdue

When these teams met in the regular season, Edey was dominant as Purdue rolled to a 19-point victory. I don’t expect a similar result this time around. Duke is a much better team right now and is playing very well defensively. If Mike Krzyzewski was still the head coach of the Blue Devils, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick the upset. I still think Edey is going to be problematic for Duke, though.

Winner: Purdue

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State

I don’t see Michigan State getting further than this point. The Spartans have to make shots at some point, which is something they haven’t done consistently this season. It’s going to be particularly difficult against Kansas State, which kept opponents to shooting just 41.9% from the field (30.1% from 3-point territory). I actually think the Wildcats have a favorable path to the Elite Eight.

Winner: Kansas State

Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr (5) celebrates after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 12 Drake vs. No. 1 Houston

This is a favorable matchup for Houston. While Drake shoots the ball well, it only ranks No. 98 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are going to have a difficult time scoring on the Cougars. Houston allows only 56.5 points per game and opponents shoot just 36.4% from the field (27.8% from 3-point territory). I expect the Cougars to get back to the Elite Eight for the third-straight year.

Winner: Houston

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas

Despite losing Chris Beard in the middle of the season, I’ve been impressed with Texas all season. The Longhorns are playing at a high level right now. It’s hard for me to pick against them. Sean Miller has become a head coach that I don’t trust come tournament time either. He hasn’t made it past the first weekend since 2017. I think Texas’ backcourt depth will be too much for Xavier.

Winner: Texas

UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) plays against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Kansas

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for UConn. Kansas allows its opponents to collect 34.8 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). The Huskies are going to be able to crash the boards against the Jayhawks. UConn has a deeper bench, with nine players averaging at least 13.2 minutes per game. I also question whether Bill Self is ready to coach again after his a health scare in the Big 12 tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA

I still don’t think Gonzaga has been challenged enough in conference play. Excluding Saint Mary’s, the Bulldogs haven’t played a team that ranked higher than No. 75 in KenPom’s rankings since Dec. 2. I think UCLA’s defense is up to the challenge of slowing down Gonzaga’s offense. I also think the Bruins will have the 2021 Final Four meeting between these teams in the back of their mind.

Winner: UCLA

Arizona Wildcats forward Azuolas Tubelis (10) looks to shoot against UCLA Bruins forward Kenneth Nwuba (14) during the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Elite Eight

South Regional final – Louisville, Ky.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Alabama

I’m not as high on Alabama as everyone else. The Crimson Tide don’t shoot the ball as well as people think – averaging just 44.6% from the field and 33.8% from 3-point territory. I think Arizona matches up very well with Alabama. The Wildcats have the length and superior rebounding ability to upset the Crimson Tide. I also question if Alabama has enough scoring depth, outside of Miller, to win it all. Arizona has had four different players score at least 24 points in a game. That usually translates well in the tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter gestures to his team during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final – New York

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Purdue

I have a feeling that this regional final is going to look much differently in a few weeks. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding almost every team in this region. However, if these teams meet in the Elite Eight, I expect Purdue to emerge victorious. I don’t think Kansas State is good enough in the paint to limit Edey’s production. If you can’t slow down Edey, you’re going to have a difficult time defeating the Boilermakers. I’m not confident in this pick at all, but I like Purdue to get to the Final Four.

Winner: Purdue

Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser (0) reacts after a three point basket during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Houston

I understand why people are hesitant to pick Houston after Marcus Sasser’s injury. However, the Cougars have a favorable path to get to this point, which will give Sasser time to get healthy. Even if he’s not 100%, I think Houston still has plenty of athleticism, depth, and defensive expertise to get back to the Final Four. The Cougars have had four different players score at least 20 points in a game. I also doubt that Texas can get to the Final Four with an interim head coach.

Winner: Houston

Connecticut Huskies guard R.J. Cole (1) looks to pass during the second half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 2 UCLA

If Jaylen Clark was healthy, I’d pick UCLA to win. I think the Bruins will have a difficult time without him, though. KenPom has UConn ranked No. 4, so it’s a vastly under seeded team in this tournament. That and Clark’s injury are why I like the Huskies to win this game. UConn ranks in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies also have the ability to make shots and get to the free throw line, which is going to be valuable against UCLA.

Winner: UConn

Final Four – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Purdue

I question if Purdue has enough scoring depth, outside of Edey, in order to win the national championship. Edey has led the Boilermakers in scoring in 24 of their 34 games. I also think Purdue’s inexperienced backcourt will be a problem at some point in the tournament. That’s why I’m not convinced that the Boilermakers are going to get to this point. I’m going to give the advantage to Arizona. The Wildcats have the length to match up with Edey in the paint. They also have an experienced roster, with their top six leading scorers being upperclassmen.

Winner: Arizona

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Houston

I actually wouldn’t rule out UConn winning this game. The Huskies are a much more athletic team than people think, and they have the ability to score. UConn has also fared well in the last 20 years when the Final Four has been in Texas. With this all but being a home game for Houston, I’m going to give the advantage to the Cougars. I think they’re a more complete team than UConn. Houston ranks in the top 12 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies are going to have a difficult time making shots against the Cougars’ stout defense.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

2023 National Championship – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Houston

I thought Arizona had what it takes to win the national championship last year. The problem was that the Wildcats ran into a defensive buzz saw in Houston in the Sweet 16. I see the same thing happening in this matchup. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country, maybe even the best. They also do a lot of things very well that usually translate to wins in March. Houston won the turnover margin by a ratio of 4.6 and collected an average of 12.8 offensive rebounds per game – ranking in the top 15 in the country in both categories.

If Sasser is healthy, which I’m expecting him to be, I don’t see a team that’s going to be able to slow down the Cougars. There’s a reason why they’re No. 1 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI rankings. Houston just has too much size, athleticism, and scoring depth. I think the Cougars can get adequate production from Jarace Walker, J’Wan Roberts, Jamal Shead, or Truman Mark even if Sasser isn’t 100% healthy.

Winner: Houston

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