Arizona Coyotes center Nick Schmaltz (8) celebrates with right wing Clayton Keller (9) after scoring a goal against the Nashville Predators in the second period at Mullett Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Well, it’s now official. After nearly 30 years of being in the Phoenix area, the Arizona Coyotes have suspended operations and are moving to Salt Lake City. The NHL board of governors approved the sale of the team to current Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith recently. The history of the team will stay behind in Arizona as the organization continues to look for a new arena in an effort to draw a current team to the area. The new Utah team will share the Delta Center with the Jazz. It’ll also act as an expansion team for the NHL and have a new name, logo, color scheme, etc. That’s probably the right decision because I doubt it’ll want any affiliation with the Coyotes.
Arizona was the laughing stock of the NHL. Since the original Winnipeg Jets relocated to the Phoenix area and became the Coyotes in 1996, the team had 11 different ownership groups, only 10 postseason appearances (four since 2003), and played in three different arenas. Gila River Arena (now Diamond Desert Arena) went as far as to not renew its contract with the Coyotes after the 2021-22 season, alleging that the organization owed $1.3 million in taxes, including $250,000 to the City of Glendale.
The league even had to take over ownership of the team when previous majority owner Jerry Moyes filed for bankruptcy in 2009. The Phoenix area didn’t support the Coyotes, either. The organization consistently ranked near the bottom in attendance by a pretty considerable margin. That’s why I wouldn’t hold my breath about the organization finding a long-term home in the Phoenix area.
The decision to move the Coyotes was long overdue and I’m not surprised in the least that Salt Lake City was the choice. I even listed it as a possible destination for Arizona just last year. It’s a cold weather city known for its skiing and winter sports, even hosting the Winter Olympics back in 2002. Salt Lake City supports both the Jazz and Real Salt Lake, and is even being eyeballed by MLB as a possible market for an expansion team. Smith seems like a competent owner, too. There’s no reason to think the city won’t support a hockey team.
General aerial view of the downtown Houston skyline and the Toyota Center and Minute Maid Park before the AFC Wild Card playoff football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
My biggest takeaway from Arizona’s move is that Houston wasn’t the destination. It felt like that was the likely landing spot. Moving from the Phoenix area to Salt Lake City is a cost effective move, but moving to Houston wouldn’t have shook up the NHL landscape at all. Arizona was already competing in the Central Division of the Western Conference and moving to Houston wouldn’t have changed that. The Dallas Stars, which is the only team in the league located in Texas, compete in the same division.
Houston has more to offer the NHL, though. It’s the fourth-largest city in the country, with a population of 7.1 million people in the metropolitan area, and is the largest city to not have a team in each of the “Big Four” sports leagues (MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL). The people of Houston support its teams, too. The Astros, Rockets, and Texans always rank in the top half of their respected leagues when it comes to attendance. The Toyota Center, which is the city’s arena that hosts the Rockets, is capable of hosting NHL games, too.
I’m not just asking this question as someone who lives in the Houston area, nor as a hockey fan who’d like to watch my Boston Bruins play in-person sometime. I’m asking this just as a sports fan, how does the NHL not already have a footprint in Houston? Even if you were a sports fan that didn’t know anything about hockey, you probably would’ve already assumed Houston had a team just because it’s one of the largest markets in the country.
General view outside of Toyota Center before the game between the Houston Rockets and the San Antonio Spurs. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The NHL has expanded from 21 to 32 teams since 1991, and has now had nine different teams relocate since 1976. None of them to Houston. Two of those teams to relocate are now defunct, with the Coyotes likely to join them. It just doesn’t make sense why the league hasn’t given Houston more consideration. Texas is plenty big enough to house two teams. I refuse to believe that it’s because the NHL doesn’t think a team would work in Houston because of its large Latino population. Cities like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Miami — all of which have large Latino populations — have six hockey teams between them and still get plenty of support.
With NASA, the oil industry, beaches, and the Port of Houston in the surrounding area, there are millions of people that move to the city every year for work or for entertainment. Those people come from a variety of different areas with different backgrounds. There could be millions of people who could be hockey fans already living in Houston. The population of the Houston metropolitan area has also increased steadily in recent years.
The only thing that makes sense for why the NHL doesn’t already have a team in Houston is because the owner of the Rockets doesn’t want to share the Toyota Center with a hockey team. That’s understandable. Regardless, the league needs to do everything it can to get this right. Having a team in Houston would create more revenue and make the NHL more valuable. More importantly, I’d be able to watch quality hockey in-person without having to drive nearly five hours to Dallas.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
“If we get jammed up, we’re holding court on the street.”
– James Coughlin, “The Town” (2010)
Arizona Coyotes center Nick Schmaltz (8) celebrates with right wing Clayton Keller (9) after scoring a goal against the Nashville Predators in the second period at Mullett Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Last week, a plan to build a new arena in Tempe, Ariz., for the Coyotes was rejected by voters. The team responded by stating that its future “will be evaluated by our owners and the National Hockey League” in the next few weeks. For hockey fans, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
Arizona is considered to be the laughing stock of the NHL, which has tried hard to keep the team in the area for years. The league has even gone as far as to take over ownership of the team when previous majority owner Jerry Moyes filed for bankruptcy in 2009. It’s time for this experiment to end because the Coyotes have a history of dysfunction.
Since the original Winnipeg Jets relocated to Arizona and became the Coyotes in 1996, the team has had 11 different ownership groups, only 10 postseason appearances (four since 2003), and played in three different arenas. One of the reasons for the latter is because Gila River Arena (now Diamond Desert Arena) chose not to renew its operating agreement with Arizona, even threatening to lock out the team for not paying $1.3 million in taxes and $250,000 to the city of Glendale.
That kind of dysfunction makes the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Miami Marlins, or New York Knicks seem competent.
NEWS: Voters in Tempe have rejected all three measures for the Arizona Coyotes’ $2.1 billion arena project, per unofficial results.
The Coyotes have also ranked in the bottom three in attendance in eight of the last 10 seasons when they played in Glendale. The two seasons when Arizona didn’t rank in the bottom three were shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2011-19, the Coyotes had an average attendance of 13,269, which is only 77.4% of the capacity of their arena. That’s abysmal when you consider that the average attendance of the rest of the league was 17,626. They’ve been playing at Arizona State’s Mullett Arena, which seats less than 5,000, since 2022.
I’m not convinced that the people of Arizona don’t care about hockey. Auston Matthews, who’s currently one of the best players in the NHL, is from the area. They’ve even embraced the other professional sports teams in the state (Arizona Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Phoenix Suns). It’s clear that the people have never embraced the Coyotes and that’s evident since they just rejected the proposal to build a new arena, which was only going to cost them around $200 million. Arizona can’t go back to the Footprint Center (home of the Suns) either because the arena wasn’t built to host a hockey team.
I understand why the NHL would want a team in the Phoenix area. It’s one of the largest markets in the country, with a population of 4.8 million in the metropolitan area. However, the Coyotes have been a total disaster and the events of last week should be an indicator to move the team elsewhere.
I don’t have a preference what the Coyotes choose to do, but I anticipate them to move because I think they’re out of options in Arizona. So, where could they go?
Atlanta Thrashers center Bryan Little (10) celebrates scoring a goal against the Ottawa Senators with right wing Blake Wheeler (26) and defenseman Zach Bogosian (4) in the second period at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta
Go ahead and laugh at me for putting Atlanta on my list. The NHL has tried to have a team in Atlanta twice before the teams relocated to Canadian cities (Calgary and Winnipeg). However, rumors of the NHL’s potential return there have picked up steam in recent weeks. In April, the Atlanta Journal-Constitutionreported of a $2 billion project to build a new arena for the Atlanta area, with the hopes of landing an NHL franchise.
I’ll be keeping an eye on if that project comes to fruition, but I highly doubt the Coyotes will move to Atlanta. If that happens, it’d change the landscape of the NHL. A team from the Eastern Conference would have to move to the Western Conference. I don’t think the league wants to do that. The most likely candidate to switch conferences is probably Detroit, which used to be in the West before the league moved it to the East so that it had an excuse to expand to Las Vegas and Seattle to give each conference 16 teams.
I’m not convinced that the NHL has closed the door on Atlanta, but this doesn’t feel like the right time to go back.
General aerial view of the downtown Houston skyline and the Toyota Center and Minute Maid Park before the AFC Wild Card playoff football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Houston
This feels like the most likely landing spot for Arizona, if it chooses to relocate. The NHL has never had a team in Houston and I think it wants to change that. If I knew nothing about hockey, I would’ve already assumed Houston had a team.
It almost makes too much sense to move the Coyotes to Houston. The city is the biggest market, with a population of 7.1 million in the metro area, to only have three teams in the “Big Four” sports leagues. I think Houston is a good sports town, too. The people support the Astros, Rockets, and Texans. More importantly, the Toyota Center (home of the Rockets) is able to host hockey games.
Moving Arizona to Houston wouldn’t alter the landscape of the NHL either. The Coyotes currently compete in the Central Division of the West and that wouldn’t change by moving to Houston because the Dallas Stars compete in the same division and conference.
It seems like Arizona could move to Houston tomorrow if it really wanted. I think it’d be cool to have a hockey rivalry in Texas. My only concern is if Houston wants an NHL team and if it’d be a “hockey town.” That’s an important variable for the NHL, which doesn’t make as much money as the other leagues.
General view of Union Station and Kauffman Center for Performing Arts and the Sprint Center and the downtown Kansas City skyline. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City, Mo.
Many people probably don’t know that the NHL once had a team in Kansas City. The Scouts played there from 1974-76 before relocating to Colorado, and then relocated again in 1982. They’re currently known as the New Jersey Devils.
I could see a scenario where the NHL returns to Kansas City. The T-Mobile Center is a relatively new arena — opening in 2007 — and is able to host hockey games. The Big 12 also hosts its men’s basketball tournament there, and the city is a popular place to visit among fans of that conference.
An estimated 2.3 million people live in the Kansas City area, too. While I’ve never been there, I get the impression that it’s a good sports town. The people support both the Chiefs and Royals, even though the latter hasn’t won more than 74 games since 2018.
I doubt Kansas City is near the top of the NHL’s list of desired markets, but I’m also not convinced that it’s near the bottom. If the Coyotes moved there, it wouldn’t change the league’s landscape at all. Plus, I wouldn’t mind seeing an Interstate 70 rivalry against St. Louis.
Buildings in Downtown Milwaukee are seen from a helicopter during a ride through MyFlight Tours over the Milwaukee area on Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023. Mandatory credit: Journal Sentinel
Milwaukee
Like Kansas City, I think Milwaukee is a realistic landing spot for Arizona. The Fiserv Forum is a brand new arena — having opened in 2018 — and is capable of hosting hockey games. The landscape of the NHL wouldn’t change at all if the Coyotes moved there.
Another thing that Milwaukee has going for it is the passionate fans in Wisconsin. They’re some of the best sports fans in the country. We know the fans support the Green Bay Packers, but they also have a history of supporting the Brewers and Bucks. An estimated 2 million people live in the Milwaukee area, too. With Wisconsin being a cold-weather state, it’s safe to assume that the fans will be passionate about hockey.
I’m not sure the NHL needs a team in Milwaukee, though. The league already has a lot of teams in the American Midwest in Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Minnesota, and St. Louis. I’m also not sure that Chicago and Detroit — two Original Six teams — will allow Milwaukee to get a hockey team.
General view of the Oregon Convention Center and downtown Portland skyline. The venue will play host to the 2016 IAAF World Championships in Athletics. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Portland, Ore.
It’s no secret that Portland is trying to add more pro sports teams. The city was linked to the Oakland A’s when the team initially started looking to relocate. Since that’s not likely to happen, Portland has thrown its hat in the ring to get an MLB expansion team.
Portland is also growing rapidly — increasing its population 49.2% since 1990. An estimated 2.5 million people live in the area, too. Portland has a history of supporting the Trail Blazers. In the last five seasons that weren’t impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the team has had an average attendance of 18,827. That’s 97% of the capacity of the Moda Center, which is capable of hosting hockey games.
Arizona potentially moving to Portland would change the NHL’s landscape, but not enough to sway the league to try to stop it. The Coyotes would stay in the West, but would have to change to the Pacific Division. That’s a quick fix, though. Just move Vegas to the Central. The league did something similar when it expanded to Seattle by moving Arizona from the Pacific to the Central.
Portland is one the largest markets to only have one pro sports team. I think that’s going to change in the next 10-15 years. I just don’t see the city as a “hockey town.” Another thing going against Portland is that the NHL already has two teams in the Pacific Northwest in Seattle and Vancouver.
The Stastny Brothers, Peter (left), Marian (center), and Anton (right), of the Quebec Nordiques on the ice in a game against the New York Islanders at Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale, N.Y., in the early 1980s. Mandatory credit: Getty Images
Québec City
The NHL currently has seven teams located in Canada. I’m under the impression that it wants to make it an even eight teams one day. If so, the logical market is Québec City, which used to have an NHL team for over 20 years.
The Québec Nordiques had support and were relatively competitive during that stretch before being forced to move to Colorado. They’re now known as the Colorado Avalanche, who’ve won three Stanley Cups since 1996.
I think it’s fair to say that the people of Québec City were robbed in the mid-90s. The only reason why the Nordiques moved was because the city’s government wouldn’t help the team build a new arena. That’s no longer an issue. Québec City opened the Vidéotron Centre in 2015, which is capable of hosting hockey games.
I don’t think the NHL is done with Québec City, but I also don’t see Arizona moving there. The city has the same disadvantage as Atlanta. If the Coyotes moved from the West to the East, it’d completely alter the league’s landscape and I don’t think that’s logical right now. Hang in there, Québec City, I think you’ll get the Nordiques back one day.
Winter scene of Salt Lake City Utah skyline showing the Mormon Temple in downtown backed by the snowcapped Wasatch Mountains. Mandatory credit: Douglas Pulsipher/Visit Salt Lake
Salt Lake City
A few weeks ago, I made a case for why an MLB team in Salt Lake City makes a lot of sense. I also think it’s a realistic landing spot for Arizona. Phoenix and Salt Lake City are separated by a little over 500 miles, so it’d be a cost-effective move.
The owner of the Utah Jazz and Real Salt Lake has even stated interest in luring an NHL team to Salt Lake City. That’s important because, sometimes, the owner of an NBA team doesn’t want to share an arena with an NHL team. It doesn’t seem like that would be an issue in Salt Lake City.
The city supports both the Jazz and Real Salt Lake. It also experiences cold weather on a yearly basis, so I could easily see it being a “hockey town.” Moving the Coyotes to Salt Lake City wouldn’t change the league’s landscape either.
I could see Salt Lake City getting an NHL team one day. I actually think it makes more sense to have a team there as opposed to Kansas City or Milwaukee. There’s not much to dislike about Salt Lake City. I just think it’s going to be difficult to beat out Houston for a team.
A general view of the Golden Gate Bridge and the skyline of downtown San Francisco prior to Super Bowl 50 between the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Somewhere else?
There’s always a possibility that the field will be able to lure Arizona. The NHL used to have a team in the San Francisco Bay Area in the California Golden Seals and moved to Cleveland and became the Barons. That team is now the Dallas Stars. There are several good markets where the league doesn’t have a footprint.
I wouldn’t rule out the Coyotes moving to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Indianapolis, San Antonio, San Diego, or San Francisco. Each of those cities are large enough markets and have arenas, and some are capable of hosting NHL games. Maybe Arizona moves to Hartford, Conn., and the Whalers return to the NHL? Are you sensing a pattern that I’m bringing up markets that used to have hockey teams?
I haven’t forgotten about Canada, but the only market that makes any sense is Québec City. The NHL has a team in each of the top seven cities in Canada, and Québec City ranks eighth. Hamilton (Toronto area) might be large enough to host a team. However, I doubt the Maple Leafs — an Original Six team — will want another team in their backyard. Halifax and Saskatoon have tried to land NHL teams in the past, but the cities have a combined metro population of 783,183. I don’t think a Canadian city, outside of Québec City, is capable of hosting a hockey team.
If the field ends up luring Arizona, it feels like it’s going to be an American city.
Tampa Bay Rays players celebrate after defeating the Detroit Tigers at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
As I was busy recapping the NFL draft and offseason last week, some interesting news broke in baseball. A group, led by former NBA executive Pat Williams, announced a proposal to bring an MLB team and a $1.7 billion ballpark to Orlando, Fla. Since I’ve already given my thoughts on Nashville and Salt Lake City as potential MLB expansion candidates, I also wanted to touch up on this news.
One of the worst kept secrets in sports is that MLB is expanding, and likely to 32 teams. I said a few weeks ago that the league isn’t going to get serious about expansion until Oakland and Tampa Bay are situated with new ballparks, though. It appears that those gears are slowly starting to turn.
This week, the A’s reportedly reached an agreement to build a $1.5 billion stadium in Las Vegas. It’s still not official that Oakland is moving to Las Vegas, but I think it’s a matter of when not if it’ll happen. I expect the move to become official soon because the team’s lease at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum expires after the 2024 season.
A group led by former NBA executive Pat Williams, is proposing to bring an MLB team and a $1.7 billion ballpark to Orlando, per @WESHpic.twitter.com/sLKnDWvvq5
Once Oakland gets situated with a ballpark in the next year or so, all eyes are going to be on the Rays. They’re the last road block that remains before baseball can expand. Even though Tampa Bay is under contract to play at Tropicana Field until 2027, I could see MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, who’s only under contract through the 2024 season, speeding up the process. He’ll want to have a vision about what MLB will look like in the near future, and also try to line the pockets of the owners through expansion, when it comes time for him to negotiate a contract extension.
Now, I doubt Orlando is a serious candidate for MLB expansion, even though I think Florida is big enough for three teams. It’s going to be difficult to beat out Nashville, Portland, and Salt Lake City, or even Austin, Charlotte, and San Antonio (should they choose to toss their hats in the ring). However, I think it might be in the best interest of all parties to move the Rays from Tampa, Fla., to Orlando.
A general view of the stadium during the national anthem prior to the start of a game featuring the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Does Tampa even care about the Rays?
Since MLB expanded to Tampa in 1998, the Rays have never had more success than they’ve had in the last 15 years. During that stretch, the Rays have won at least 90 games eight times. They’ve also appeared in the postseason eight times, including four AL East division titles and two World Series appearances. That’s not even including the great players that have come through Tampa Bay during that stretch like David Price, Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Blake Snell, Shane Baz, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, and Wander Franco.
However, the Rays have struggled filling up Tropicana Field. They’ve ranked in the bottom three in total attendance in each of the last 10 seasons that weren’t impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Their average attendance in the last 13 full seasons is only 17,889, which is only 41.8% of the capacity at Tropicana Field if you include the tarp-covered seats. Even though Tampa Bay is off to a historic start this season, the average attendance of its home games is still only 17,819.
Why can’t the Rays draw more support? A big reason is that Tropicana Field isn’t in the best condition. The criticisms of the ballpark are the catwalks near the roof, the bullpens being located in foul territory on both sides of the field, and the interior lacking fan-friendly amenities. Plus, Tropicana Field is located in St. Petersburg, which is a 30-minute drive across the bay from downtown Tampa.
I completely understand those criticisms. Fans don’t want to spend all that money for tickets and make that trip across the bay to spend a few hours in a ballpark that’s in poor condition. With the success that the Rays have had in the last 15 years, you’d think that fans would be willing to deal with it in order to watch a good product on the field.
Tampa and the Rays have gone back and forth for years when it comes to building a new ballpark — going as far back as 2009. The Rays have even discussed a “split season,” where they’d play half their games in Tampa and the other half in Montréal. MLB shut that proposal down, though.
The latest proposal to build a ballpark closer to downtown Tampa fell through in 2018. Last year, the owner of the Rays said that the team would continue to explore sites in the Tampa Bay area as well as a new city altogether. In January, the Associated Press reported that there’s a plan to build a new ballpark and to redevelop the area near the current ballpark. We’ll see if that plan comes to fruition.
I really don’t like questioning whether a city supports its pro sports teams. For the most part, I think they do (some more than others). I don’t even think Tampa is a bad sports town. The people support both the Buccaneers and the Lightning. I believe the Rays would have much better attendance if they were in a nicer ballpark closer to downtown Tampa.
It could also just easily be that the city doesn’t care for baseball. Given the way the last few years have gone, I’m not convinced that either side wants to keep the Rays in the Tampa Bay area. The clock is ticking on the team’s lease and it might be time for both sides to cut their losses.
A view of the Orlando skyline at night. Mandatory credit: Visit Orlando
Why Orlando?
The main reason why it might be in the Rays’ best interest to move to Orlando is because the city seems committed to building a ballpark. The ownership group trying to bring an MLB team to the city revealed the renderings of the proposed ballpark this week, which would cost around $1.7 billion. That’s more than what it’d cost to build the proposed new ballpark in St. Petersburg.
If the Rays want security, a new ballpark, a cost-effective move, and to stay relatively close to their fanbase, Orlando appears to be a logical destination. I also think having a footprint in Orlando would be beneficial for MLB. Even though the city has a population of just 307,573, it’s grown 86.7% in the last 30 years. Remember, the metro population of the Orlando area is 2.6 million. That’s a plenty big enough market.
Orlando is also a heavy tourist destination. An estimated 59.3 million people visited Orlando in 2021. The city has Walt Disney World Resort, Universal Orlando Resort, and plenty of outdoor activities. The beach and the Kennedy Space Center are just an hour drive away, too. There’s never going to be a shortage of people visiting Orlando in a calendar year.
When it comes to pro sports, the NBA and MLS already have footprints in Orlando — the Magic and Orlando City SC. The city has a pretty good track record of supporting those teams, too. In the last five seasons that weren’t impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Magic had an average attendance of 17,145 (90.9% of the capacity of the Amway Center) and Orlando City SC had an average attendance of 24,048 (94.3% of the capacity of Exploria Stadium). Those aren’t bad numbers considering that the two teams have a combined five postseason appearances in the last decade.
It’s also worth noting that Jacksonville and Tampa, which have a combined metro population of 4.8 million, are within driving distance of Orlando. UCF — one of the largest universities in the country — is also located in the city. With UCF joining the Big 12 this year, that’s likely going to lead to even more people visiting Orlando.
I can’t help but think that Orlando might be a better spot for the Rays than Tampa. Orlando is almost as big as Tampa and gets double the visitors every year. Nothing is going to stop those visitors from swinging by the new ballpark to watch a team that’s been pretty good in recent years.
A general view of the field during a spring training game between the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves at JetBlue Park at Fenway South. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
We must keep professional baseball in Florida
MLB doesn’t have a good track record when it comes to support in Florida. Both Miami and Tampa Bay have ranked near the bottom of the league in attendance for the last decade. I think you’ll find plenty of people who’d argue to move both teams to other cities outside of Florida. I’m not one of those people, though.
MLB needs to have a footprint in Florida outside of Spring Training, which an estimated 1.5 million fans attend in a given year. When you consider that the largest Spring Training ballpark seats 11,000 and several games are played during the day, those aren’t terrible numbers.
I refuse to believe that the state that has one of the largest Latino populations and produces some of the best baseball talent in the country doesn’t care about the sport when it’s not February and March. If Tampa Bay had a nice ballpark located closer to downtown Tampa and Miami didn’t have a history of dysfunction, I think both teams would get a lot more support.
Since Manfred had to intervene to prevent the Rays from playing half their games in Montréal, I think he agrees with me that MLB needs to have teams in Florida.
An overview of the Salt Lake City skyline. Mandatory credit: The Spectrum
Salt Lake City recently became the third city – after Nashville, Tenn., and Portland, Ore. – to lobby for an MLB expansion team. Last year, I wrote about how I thought expanding to Nashville would be a smart move by MLB. I don’t think it’ll be too long before cities like Charlotte, N.C., Indianapolis, or San Antonio throw their hats in the ring, too. I think Salt Lake City is an intriguing expansion candidate, so I wanted share my thoughts on this announcement.
The Salt Lake City consortium (Big League Utah) lobbying for an MLB expansion team is being led by Gail Miller, the former owner of the Utah Jazz. Her involvement in this process feels like a great thing for the citizens of Salt Lake City. She has a net worth of $4 billion, which would make her one of the richest owners in MLB. Considering how baseball doesn’t have equal revenue distribution, having one of the richest owners in the game is a huge benefit. It might be the best way to field a competitive team on a yearly basis.
BREAKING: A Salt Lake City consortium led by the former owner of the Utah Jazz plans to pursue a Major League Baseball expansion franchise in the coming years, people involved with the project tell ESPN.
Miller is also from the Salt Lake City area, so she’s likely going to be passionate about giving the people a competitive team to cheer on. She proved herself to be an adequate owner when she owned the Jazz, who were (and still are) one of the best-run teams in the NBA. This is important because some team owners don’t care about being competitive and only become owners to make money. I don’t get that impression from Miller.
Big League Utah is already targeting a location to build a ballpark at the 100-acre Rocky Mountain Power District on the west side of Salt Lake City. The early renderings of a potential stadium look pretty good.
Now, this announcement by Salt Lake City surprised me. It never crossed my mind that it was an expansion option for MLB. The more I think about it, though, the more I think it makes sense.
Winter scene of Salt Lake City Utah skyline showing the Mormon Temple in downtown backed by the snowcapped Wasatch Mountains. Mandatory credit: Douglas Pulsipher/Visit Salt Lake
It’s a growing capital city that’s attracts a lot of people
I think capital cities are good expansion targets for professional sports leagues. Capital cities are typically very populous because of state legislatures and other state institutions. Plus, most major highways connect through capital cities. The same goes for Salt Lake City. In 2019, roughly 12.4 million people visited the Salt Lake City area. In comparison, Nashville hosted 14.4 million visitors in 2021. Salt Lake City is becoming a place that attracts a lot of people, which I’ll go into more detail in a bit.
When it comes to growing cities, I wouldn’t put Salt Lake City in the same category as Atlanta, Austin, Texas, Charlotte, or Nashville. Each of those cities has seen exponential growth in the last 30 years. The average population of those cities in 1990 was 435,986 and the average population of their metropolitan areas was almost 1.5 million. In 2020, the average population of those cities was 756,171 (73.4% increase) and the average population of their metropolitan areas was over 3.2 million (117.4% increase).
Salt Lake City isn’t close to those numbers, but it’s showing growth. During the same timeframe, Salt Lake City’s population increased from 159,936 to 199,723 (24.8% increase), and its metropolitan area has increased from 768,075 to over 1.2 million (63.7% increase). I think that’s large enough for a baseball team, especially if it continues to grow.
Utah Jazz forward Kelly Olynyk (41) points out a defense against the Phoenix Suns in the third quarter at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
It appears to be a great sports town
Salt Lake City has had teams in the NBA and MLS for decades. The Jazz moved to Salt Lake City in 1979 and MLS expanded to Salt Lake City in 2005. The city has done a great job of supporting those teams, especially in recent years. In the last four full seasons, the average attendance of Utah games is 18,185 (99.3% capacity) and the average attendance of Real Salt Lake games is 18,994 (93.9% capacity).
The city even supports the Salt Lake Bees, which is a Class AAA minor league baseball team. Salt Lake has ranked in the top 20 in overall attendance in each of the last five full seasons. In college athletics, the Salt Lake City area also supports Utah and BYU, especially in football the last two seasons. The Utes have averaged a sellout crowd during that stretch and the Cougars have had an average attendance of 60,660 (95.5% capacity).
I see no reason to think Salt Lake City wouldn’t support an MLB team.
Residents dry their clothes outside a home in Monument Valley, Utah. Mandatory credit: USA Today
There’s year-round places to visit in the surrounding area
One of the main reasons why Salt Lake City garners so many visitors is because of the outdoor tourist attractions in Utah. The biggest one is arguably Park City, which is less than an hour drive from Salt Lake City. It’s famous for its ski slopes and it’s where the Sundance Film Festival is located.
Park City averages about 4 million visitors annually (2.6 million in the winter and 1.4 million in the summer). Even though the majority of tourists are visiting in the winter and will miss the bulk of baseball season, 1.4 million tourists being in the area during baseball season is still a large pool.
Other big tourist attractions in Utah are mostly national parks — Zion, Arches, Monument Valley, Canyonlands, Bryce Canyon, etc. Great Salt Lake isn’t as popular as those national parks, but it’s also a tourist attraction because it’s the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere and eighth-largest in the world. Utah is a haven for people who love the outdoors and I don’t see that part of the state’s tourism industry slowing down.
This is important is because it makes Salt Lake City even more of an intriguing expansion option for MLB. Not only are there roughly 1.2 million people living in the area, but there are also millions of people visiting. When they visit Utah, they likely have to fly through Salt Lake City, which has one of the largest airports in the country. With a large airport, you’re going to get a lot of people from diverse backgrounds visiting your city.
I don’t think it’s going to take much for those people to say, “Hey, while we’re nearby, let’s go see the new MLB team.” That’s going to be a positive quality for MLB.
A look at one of the resorts in Park City, Utah. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY NETWORK
The Mountain Time Zone market is underrepresented in pro sports
The only American footprints that MLB, MLS, the NFL, and the NHL have in the Mountain Time Zone are Denver and Phoenix. The only league that has a footprint in those two cities and Salt Lake City is the NBA. The Rocky Mountain Time Zone is vastly underrepresented in pro sports. I understand why, because the time zone is very rural outside of those cities because of the Rocky Mountains. I think it’s time to change that for some of these leagues because of Salt Lake City’s growth.
I’ve mentioned it several times, but one of the reasons why the Big 12 didn’t lose too much money after the departure of Oklahoma and Texas is because it expanded to the Mountain Time Zone by adding BYU. The Big 12 adding another window to its slate of games was considered valuable by ESPN and FOX. Having another footprint in the Rocky Mountain Time Zone ought to lead to more money for MLB, along with expanding to 32 teams.
A general view of the Utah Capitol Building in Salt Lake City. Mandatory credit: Utah.com
It feels like a good cultural fit in baseball
I try HARD to not write about politics on this blog, but I feel like I have to bring it up in this instance. MLB is one of the more conservative pro sports leagues in the country, among both its players and fanbase. The NHL might be the only league that’s more conservative. Most large cities in the world tend to be more liberal, but Salt Lake City is an exception.
Due to its Mormon population, Salt Lake City is a conservative area. It’s one of the few large cities in the country with a Republican mayor and congressman. In fact, every congressional district in Utah has a Republican representative in Washington, D.C. This is also one of the reasons why I thought Nashville would work as a baseball town. Even though the city of Nashville is liberal, Tennessee is still a very red state.
Now, I doubt MLB is going to place much of an emphasis on the political spectrum and voting patterns of certain cities if/when it decides to expand. There’s a chance it’ll play some kind of a factor, though, and that’s another reason why I think Salt Lake City would be a great fit.
Sailors enjoy a Sunday afternoon on The Great Salt Lake. Mandatory credit: USA Today
Don’t be surprised if Salt Lake City ends up getting an MLB team
Before we get ahead of ourselves, I don’t anticipate MLB to get serious about expansion any time soon. The league office has all but said it’s not going to do anything until both Oakland and Tampa Bay are settled in with new ballparks. All signs are pointing to the A’s moving to Las Vegas, and I still think MLB will find a way to either keep the Rays in Tampa, Fla., or somewhere in the state. With these cities lobbying for teams, it’s clear that expansion is on MLB’s horizon.
I think it’s going to be difficult to beat out Charlotte (assuming it wants to get involved) and Nashville for an MLB expansion team, but Salt Lake City makes a compelling argument. Vegas currently has Salt Lake City with the third-best odds to land a team, too. Assuming MLB expands to 32 teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if Salt Lake City ends up being one of the choices.
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