“I don’t like it, I don’t agree with it, but I accept it.”
— Lando Calrissian, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018)
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to players against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Purdue (34-4) vs. No. 1 UConn (36-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: UConn -6.5 Over/under: 145.5
Contrary to what we all thought would happen after the way the conference tournaments played out, this NCAA tournament has been pretty normal. The only double-digit seed to advance past the first weekend (and eventually to the Final Four) was a Power 5 school. That’s partly why we have two No. 1 seeds competing in the national championship for the first time since 2021, and just the third time since 2008. UConn and Purdue have been the most consistent teams in this tournament, combining for an average margin of victory of 22.3 points per game. This has a chance to be an entertaining title game.
North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) knocks the ball away from Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After last year’s embarrassing loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers have gotten the monkey off their back by getting to this point. The biggest difference between this Purdue team and last year’s team is a much improved backcourt. In five tournament games, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones have combined to shoot 40.5% from 3-point territory, and committed just 4.6 turnovers per game and averaged nearly 10 points per game apiece. They do a great job of complementing Zach Edey, who’s considered the best player in the country and has averaged 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the tournament. The Boilermakers have also been excellent defensively in their last five games — allowing only 60.2 points per game and holding teams to shoot just 39.3% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. If Purdue continues to shoot well from 3-point range and collect offensive rebounds, it certainly has a chance to knock off the Huskies.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/Arizona Republic-USA TODAY Sports
The defending national champions have shown no signs of slowing down the last few weeks. The Huskies have won 26 of their last 27 games by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. They’ve been impressive offensively in their last five games — shooting 50.8% from the field, and collecting 12 offensive rebounds per game and committing just eight turnovers per game. Unlike the Boilermakers, UConn’s offense has a very balanced scoring attack. The Huskies have had six different players score at least 10 points in a game in tournament play. UConn has also been just as good, if not better, on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies have allowed only 57.2 points per game, and held opposing teams to shoot just 34.6% from the field and 28.1% from beyond the arc. My only concern with UConn is its 3-point shooting, which has been lukewarm at best recently. When you factor that, it’s even more impressive how the Huskies have been able to win games in the tournament so convincingly.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The deciding factor of this game will likely be which team can win in the paint. Even though the Boilermakers have Edey (7’4″), I’m giving that advantage to UConn. The Huskies have more depth in the post with the trio of Donovan Clingan (7’2″), Alex Karaban (6’8″), and Samson Johnson (6’10”), who’ve combined to tally 26 blocks and 80 rebounds in five tournament games. They’ll be a problem for Edey, who isn’t very athletic. If Edey can’t get going, I don’t know how the Boilermakers win. I doubt their backcourt is good enough to pick up the slack given how well UConn has defended 3-pointers. The Huskies have more talent and scoring depth than Purdue, too. I like that UConn has won games in a variety of different ways despite not shooting well from beyond the arc. That’s a sign of a great team. I also think the Huskies will have a significant coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. It just feels like UConn is destined to be the first team to repeat as national champions since Florida did it in 2006-07.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
Biggest riser: Philadelphia (+3) Biggest faller: Buffalo, Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) holds the the Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic via USA TODAY Sports
1. Kansas City Chiefs (17-3) Postseason result: W, 38-35 vs. Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII Previous: 2 (+1)
Kansas City is emerging as the next NFL dynasty. The Chiefs will have a chance to win the Super Bowl every year with Patrick Mahomes. They need to win one more title before I label them as a dynasty, though.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
2. Philadelphia Eagles (16-4) Postseason result: L, 35-38 vs. Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII Previous: 5 (+3)
Despite losing the Super Bowl, I think it’s become clear that Jalen Hurts is the real deal. He finished runner-up in MVP voting and played well in the Super Bowl. Philadelphia is going to be just fine going forward.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) scrambles in the third quarter of the AFC championship NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports
3. Cincinnati Bengals (14-5) Postseason result: L, 20-23 at Kansas City in AFC Championship Previous: 4 (+1)
Tee Higgins is entering a contract year and Joe Burrow’s big pay day is now within sight. Cincinnati likely has some difficult decisions to make this offseason. I’m not sure the Bengals’ roster will look exactly the same in 2023.
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates his 23-yard touchdown run with wide receiver Jauan Jennings (15) against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter in the NFC Championship game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
4. San Francisco 49ers (15-5) Postseason result: L, 7-31 at Philadelphia in NFC Championship Previous: 3 (-1)
The fact that San Francisco was a game away from the Super Bowl despite being down to its third-string quarterback is incredible. I’m hesitant to believe that Brock Purdy is this team’s future starting quarterback, though.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second quarter of an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
5. Buffalo Bills (14-4) Postseason result: L, 10-27 vs. Cincinnati in Divisional Round Previous: 1 (-4)
I’m to the point that I need to see Buffalo get to the Super Bowl before I can believe in it. I think this is an important offseason for the Bills. They need to improve and get tougher in the trenches if they want to get over the hump.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) hands off to running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) during the first quarter of a NFC divisional round game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
6. Dallas Cowboys (13-6) Postseason result: L, 12-19 at San Francisco in Divisional Round Previous: 7 (+1)
It feels like a lot is riding on the 2023 season for Dallas. The Cowboys are allowing Mike McCarthy to call plays offensively. If he fails, I expect the team to make a coaching change, maybe even move on from Dak Prescott.
New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll looks on during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFC divisional round game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
7. New York Giants (10-8-1) Postseason result: L, 7-38 at Philadelphia in Divisional Round Previous: 9 (+2)
I think Brian Daboll is a good head coach, but we need to temper our expectations for the Giants. They won a lot of close games in 2022 and still have a lot of holes on their roster. I could see them regressing next year.
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Kansas City Chiefs with quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during the second half in the AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-9) Postseason result: L, 20-27 at Kansas City in Divisional Round Previous: 10 (+2)
I think Jacksonville has a bright future. Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson were effective in their first year working together. Until I see otherwise, I consider the Jaguars the team to beat in the AFC South division.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn (17) is congratulated by head coach Kevin O’Connell after scoring a touchdown against the New York Giants during the second quarter of a wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
9. Minnesota Vikings (13-5) Postseason result: L, 24-31 vs. New York Giants in Super Wild Card Weekend Previous: 8 (-1)
Minnesota is a team that I have circled to regress next year. The Vikings weren’t as good as their record, won 11 one-possession games, and had a lot of bounces go their way. Fortunately for them the NFC is weak.
Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (26) celebrates with safety Derwin James Jr. (3) after an interception during the second quarter of a wild card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
10. Los Angeles Chargers (10-8) Postseason result: L, 30-31 at Jacksonville in Super Wild Card Weekend Previous: 6 (-4)
I’m still surprised that the Chargers didn’t fire Brandon Staley after they lost to Jacksonville in the playoffs. The team is also going to have to pay Justin Herbert this offseason, so that means cap casualties are likely coming.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (2) hands the ball off to Baltimore Ravens running back Gus (35) in the fourth quarter during an NFL wild-card playoff football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals during a wild card game at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports
11. Baltimore Ravens (10-8) Postseason result: L, 17-24 at Cincinnati in Super Wild Card Weekend Previous: 11
It’s going to be an interesting next few weeks for Baltimore. Reports indicate that the Ravens are going to franchise tag Lamar Jackson before the new league year, but I’m not convinced he wants to stay with the team.
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll talks to running back DeeJay Dallas on the sidelines in the second quarter of a wild card game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
12. Seattle Seahawks (9-9) Postseason result: L, 23-41 at San Francisco in Super Wild Card Weekend Previous: 13 (+1)
We all thought Seattle was going to be in the cellar in 2022 and it made the playoffs. Geno Smith exceeded expectations and the Seahawks have a few promising rookies. I think they have a very bright future.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Skylar Thompson (19) throws a pass against the Buffalo Bills during the second half in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
13. Miami Dolphins (9-9) Postseason result: L, 31-34 at Buffalo in Super Wild Card Weekend Previous: 14 (+1)
Miami is ready to win now, but it’s quarterback situation is holding it back. The Dolphins keep saying they believe in Tua Tagovailoa, but I don’t believe it. I think Miami is going to be working behind the scenes to get a veteran.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) drops back to pass against the Dallas Cowboys in the second half during the wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-10) Postseason result: L, 14-31 vs. Dallas in Super Wild Card Weekend Previous: 12 (-2)
Tom Brady retiring for good changes the way we view Tampa Bay. I don’t see this team competing without him. The Buccaneers don’t have a plan in place and I expect them to be in the mix for several veteran quarterbacks.
Detroit Lions wide receivers D.J. Chark (4) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) celebrate after Chark’s reception for a first down late in the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Tork Mason/USA Today NETWORK-Wisconsin
15. Detroit Lions (9-8) Previous: 15
I’ve liked the way Detroit has handled this rebuild the last couple years. The Lions are arguably a year ahead in the process, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team manages to win the NFC North next year.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates with wide receiver Allen Lazard (13) following a touchdown during the third quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
16. Green Bay Packers (8-9) Previous: 16
It’s time for Green Bay to move on from Aaron Rodgers and retool its roster. I made the case for the Packers to do so two years ago. I don’t have any indication how these next few weeks will shake out between the two sides, though.
Pittsburgh Steelers safety Damontae Kazee (23) and linebacker T.J. Watt (90) celebrate an interception by Kazee against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) Previous: 17
I think Pittsburgh’s future looks pretty good. Kenny Pickett impressed me as a rookie and the Steelers have plenty of good players defensively. They really need to bolster their offensive line to take the next step, though.
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
18. New England Patriots (8-9) Previous: 18
As long as New England has Bill Belichick, it’s going to be somewhat competitive. This team has a long way to go, though, to be a contender in the AFC. Hiring Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator should help matters.
Carolina Panthers head coach Frank Reich speaks at his introductory press conference at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Griffin Zetterberg-USA TODAY Sports
19. Carolina Panthers (7-10) Previous: 19
With Brady retiring, Carolina might be the favorite to win the NFC South next year. The Panthers have some good players and now a good head coach in Frank Reich. We’ll see how the offseason goes for them.
New Orleans Saints tight end Adam Trautman (82) blocks against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
20. New Orleans Saints (7-10) Previous: 20
Even though Derek Carr declined a trade to New Orleans, I still wouldn’t rule out him going there. If he’s released, I expect the Saints to be in the mix for him. He’d give New Orleans some much-needed stability.
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski reacts on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
21. Cleveland Browns (7-10) Previous: 21
With Deshaun Watson getting a full offseason of work in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, I’m expecting Cleveland to be better next year. I think jobs might be on the line if the Browns don’t improve in the win column.
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) celebrates with Commanders guard Chris Paul (75) and Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
22. Washington Commanders (8-8-1) Previous: 22
I wouldn’t expect Washington to retain Carson Wentz. There have been reports that Sam Howell will be the team’s starter next year. I’m not sure if that’s true, but it’s definitely noteworthy as we head into the offseason.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay celebrates a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
23. Los Angeles Rams (5-12) Previous: 23
I don’t know what to expect from the Rams. There were reports after the regular season that they might be entering a rebuild. With Sean McVay returning to the team, though, I think this team to bounce back next year.
Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels watches from the sidelines against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
24. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) Previous: 24
It sounds like Carr is on his way out. The veteran quarterback options are becoming limited with Brady’s retirement, too. The Raiders need to make a strong push for someone if they want to be competitive.
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
25. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) Previous: 25
I don’t expect Atlanta to be in the market for a quarterback this offseason, whether a veteran or through the draft. I think the Falcons like what they have in Desmond Ridder. The clock might be ticking on Arthur Smith, though.
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton speaks at the UCHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
26. Denver Broncos (5-12) Previous: 26
Hiring Sean Payton is a big move by Denver. The Broncos needed someone to utilize their impressive offensive weapons and to get Russell Wilson back to being what we saw in Seattle. If anyone can do it, it’s Payton.
New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
27. New York Jets (7-10) Previous: 27
The reports surfaced before the Super Bowl that the Jets have been in talks about acquiring Aaron Rodgers. I’m not surprised. I think the Jets want a proven veteran at quarterback. We’ll see what unfolds these next few weeks.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws in the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
28. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) Previous: 28
I don’t think Arizona is in a good spot. It’s tried to swing big in its coaching search to no avail. That tells me that coaches might not be interested in being around Kyler Murray. I have no clue what the Cardinals will do.
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus looks on during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports
29. Chicago Bears (3-14) Previous: 29
No team in the league is projected to have more cap room than Chicago this offseason. So, I expect the Bears to be big spenders in free agency. That’s going to be beneficial because this team still has a ways to go.
Houston Texans head coach Demeco Ryans speaks to the media during his introductory press conference at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
30. Houston Texans (3-13-1) Previous: 30
Houston made one of the best hires of this coaching carousel by getting DeMeco Ryans. I think he’s a bright, young coach and the right guy to lead the Texans out of the cellar. I’m curious to see how they handle the offseason.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) calls a play at the line against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
31. Tennessee Titans (7-10) Previous: 31
I don’t think Tennessee will move off Ryan Tannehill, but I wouldn’t rule it out. He has an out in his contract and his dead cap goes down drastically. Keep an eye on the Titans to be looking for a new veteran quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) celebrates his touchdown with teammates in the third quarter against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
32. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1) Previous: 32
Like Arizona, Indianapolis isn’t in a good spot. It’s had several rounds of head coaching interviews and hasn’t hired any of the candidates. The Colts have had months to get this hire right and haven’t been able to do so.
Super Bowl LVII Kansas City (14-3) vs. Philadelphia (14-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: Eagles -1.5 Over/under: 50.5
I’m not sure I’ve been more excited for a Super Bowl matchup since Denver and Seattle met in Super Bowl XLVIII. Kansas City and Philadelphia were arguably the two best teams in the NFL since Week 1. There’s some excellent storylines going into Sunday’s game – Andy Reid going up against his former team and Jason and Travis Kelce being the first brothers to play each other in a Super Bowl. There are also implications. Patrick Mahomes and Reid could firmly put themselves in the conversation for the best quarterback/head coach combination in NFL history with a win, and Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman is looking to win a second Super Bowl with a different quarterback and head coach, which has happened one other time in NFL history. This has been an entertaining few days leading up to the game. I just hope that this matchup lives up to the hype.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) raises the Lamar Hunt Trophy with tight end Travis Kelce (87) after the AFC championship NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Kansas City Chiefs advanced to the Super Bowl with a 23-20 win over the Bengals. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports
Remember back in the preseason when some pundits thought Kansas City would miss the playoffs just because the team traded Tyreek Hill? (I didn’t). Well, the Chiefs are now representing the AFC in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years. Since losing to Buffalo back in Week 6, the Chiefs have won 13 of their last 14 games. They haven’t always played their best game during that stretch, but they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 110 points. This team is on a roll right now, and the combination of Patrick Mahomes and Reid is tough to pick against.
Kansas City’s offense hasn’t missed a beat without Hill – averaging 28.7 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. That put the Chiefs in the top two in the NFL in both categories. There have been moments this season, though, where their offense hasn’t been as dynamic as previous years. Kansas City scored 30 points or more eight times in 19 games, and only four times in its last 14 games, compared to a combined 19 times in 36 games in 2019 and 2020. I think the main reason for that is a lack of playmaking pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce, causing the Chiefs to become more reliant on their run game. They’ve found success on the ground, too, since the emergence of Isiah Pacheco. He’s averaged 5.1 yards per carry in Kansas City’s last 11 games. In order for the Chiefs to win, I think they have to stick to their identity. Unless Mahomes has an all-time performance, which is certainly possible, I don’t think Kansas City is going to win if the game becomes a track meet.
Since Mahomes became the starting quarterback for the Chiefs, their weakness has been their defense. However, this might be the best defense Kansas City has had in recent years. Since Week 6, the Chiefs’ defense has allowed an average of 20 points per game and 4.9 yards per play, and tallied 48 sacks and 19 turnovers. They’ve also been pretty good against the run (allowing 4.2 yards per carry) and on third down (38.3%). This isn’t the same Kansas City defense that we’ve been accustomed to seeing. In order for the Chiefs to win, I think their defensive front has to be great. Chris Jones, Frank Clark, Carlos Dunlap, George Karlaftis, and Derrick Nnadi are each going to have to play very well. Kansas City’s secondary isn’t bad, but it’s not good enough to overcome a lack of a pass rush. If the Chiefs’ defense can’t win the battle in the trenches, I have a difficult time seeing them winning because Philadelphia poses a lot of problems.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1), defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (91) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) during the NFC Championship trophy presentation after win against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia is returning to the Super Bowl for the second time in six seasons. It’s been a borderline improbable run by the Eagles. Not many people, including myself, gave them much of a chance to win the NFC in the preseason. Philadelphia was dominant through its first 13 games before being bit by the injury bug and I began thinking this team was limping to the postseason. However, the Eagles now look like they’re 100% healthy, which is partly why they’ve won their last two games by a combined 55 points. I think this team is playing its best football right now.
Philadelphia’s strength is its offense, which averaged 28.7 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season. The Eagles have the best offensive line in the league and Jalen Hurts might be considered the frontrunner to win MVP. What impresses me the most about Philadelphia is that its offense has rushed for a minimum of 111 yards in all but five games, and eclipsed 130 rushing yards in 12 games. In two of the five games that the Eagles didn’t rush for 111 yards, Hurts was injured and didn’t play. In the other three games, Hurts completed 68% of his passes, averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and posted a passer rating of 116. Philadelphia’s offense had its way with almost every team on its schedule, including a stout San Francisco defense a few weeks ago. Even if the Eagles can’t run the ball effectively Sunday, their MVP candidate quarterback is surrounded by excellent offensive weapons. I’m not sure how Kansas City is going to defend Philadelphia’s offense.
I don’t think the Eagles are as strong defensively as they were in Super Bowl LII. One thing that this unit has in common with that unit, though, is that they have a strong defensive front. Philadelphia has a talented and deep defensive line led by All-Pro edge rusher Haason Reddick, and proven veterans like Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, Linval Joseph, Robert Quinn, and Ndamukong Suh. That’s not even counting young studs like Josh Sweat and Jordan Davis. The Eagles finished No. 1 in sacks, No. 2 in pressure rate, and No. 3 in opposing passer rating. They also have playmakers in their secondary like Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The only weakness with Philadelphia’s defense is its run defense. Even though the Eagles have been vulnerable against the run, they’ve been much better in recent weeks. I think Philadelphia’s defense is going to be able to keep Mahomes and Kansas City’s passing attack in check.
The helmets of the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles prior to Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
I don’t like doubting Mahomes and Reid, but the closer we get to this game the more I like Philadelphia’s chances of winning. The Eagles have several advantages in this matchup. They’re much better in the trenches and, I think, are the more physical team. Football games are won up front. Philadelphia has better offensive weapons in Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. You could also argue that they have the better secondary. I typically place a lot of emphasis on quarterback/head coach combinations and Kansas City has that advantage. However, it’s not as if it’s a huge drop-off to Hurts and Nick Sirianni. The Chiefs must lean on their run game. Travis Kelce is a great offensive weapon, but they lack difference makers outside of him. I don’t think they can win in a shootout.
Kansas City’s defense has been solid, but it’s likely going to be have to be extraordinary Sunday. Philadelphia’s offense is loaded with bullies, specifically along its offensive line. I don’t think Kansas City’s defensive front has what it takes to get the better of the Eagles. On the other side, I’m not convinced the Chiefs can keep Mahomes upright against Philadelphia’s defensive front throughout the course of the game. I also think Hurts and Philadelphia’s passing attack will give Kansas City’s secondary trouble. I can’t shake the feeling that Mahomes will have to put on Superman’s cape in order for the Chiefs to win. I wouldn’t be shocked if it happens, but he doesn’t have the supporting cast to do it. Philadelphia has the advantage almost all over the field. I think the Eagles win their second Super Bowl.
Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 24 Super Bowl MVP: Jalen Hurts
“I’ll tell you what: I’m never eating at Benihana again. I don’t care whose birthday it is.”
– Donnie Azoff, “The Wolf of Wall Street” (2013)
Colorado Avalanche left wing Gabriel Landeskog (92) celebrates with the Stanley Cup after the game against the Tampa Bay Lightning in game six of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
It’s now become a yearly tradition at this point in the sports calendar: pretend that the NFL had the NHL’s point system. I did it for the first time three years ago, which is a more detailed account and goes back to the 2015 season, whereas last year’s post is solely devoted to the 2021 season and the year before is solely devoted to the 2020 season. This year’s post has taken a little longer than usual, but it’s still the perfect time to publish it with the NFL postseason and the heat of the NHL regular season going on simultaneously.
For those that don’t know, the NHL handles its standings differently than most leagues. Instead of going by overall record, the league goes by a point system. The specifics are listed below:
Outcome of each game
Points
Win (regulation AND overtime)
2
Loss in overtime
1
Loss in regulation
0
Explanation of the NHL’s point system
Now, I will incorporate some of the elements that the NFL uses to determine its standings and postseason format – division winners are guaranteed one of the top four seeds, three wild card spots in each conference, and the NFL’s tie-breakers are included. However, I’m going to determine the standings by each team’s total number of points like the NHL instead of by overall record.
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) celebrates with quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after a score against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
2022
AFC
Team
Record
Points
1
Kansas City Chiefs*
14-3
28
2
Buffalo Bills*
13-3
27
3
Cincinnati Bengals*
12-4
25
4
Jacksonville Jaguars*
9-8
18
5
Los Angeles Chargers**
10-7
20
6
Baltimore Ravens**
10-7
20
7
Miami Dolphins**
9-8
18
8
Pittsburgh Steelers
9-8
18
9
New England Patriots
8-9
17
10
Tennessee Titans
7-10
15
11
New York Jets
7-10
14
12
Cleveland Browns
7-10
14
13
Las Vegas Raiders
6-11
14
14
Denver Broncos
5-12
13
15
Indianapolis Colts
4-12-1
10
16
Houston Texans
3-13-1
8
AFC standings for the 2022 season going by the NHL’s point system (bold means changes)
NFC
Team
Record
Points
1
Philadelphia Eagles*
14-3
28
2
San Francisco 49ers*
13-4
26
3
Minnesota Vikings*
13-4
26
4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
8-9
17
5
Dallas Cowboys**
12-5
26
6
Seattle Seahawks**
9-8
19
7
New York Giants**
9-7-1
19
8
Detroit Lions
9-8
18
9
Washington Commanders
8-8-1
17
10
Green Bay Packers
8-9
16
11
Carolina Panthers
7-10
15
12
New Orleans Saints
7-10
14
13
Atlanta Falcons
7-10
14
14
Los Angeles Rams
5-12
11
15
Arizona Cardinals
4-13
9
16
Chicago Bears
3-14
6
NFC standings for the 2022 season going by the NHL’s point system (bold means changes)
I’ll admit that after calculating all the points, I found this year’s final standings to be very anti-climactic. I felt like Ralphie in “A Christmas Story” when he’s deciphering the secret message from the “Little Orphan Annie” radio show. There was only one change to the standings. Go back and look at previous years (links are above). There’s typically been a lot more changes in a given season. This year’s lone change came in the NFC.
Going by the NHL’s point system, Seattle would’ve finished higher in standings than the Giants. Both teams had the same number of points and Seattle owns the tie-breaker because it won the head-to-head matchup in the regular season. That’s noteworthy because Seattle would’ve played Minnesota and the Giants would’ve played San Francisco in Super Wild Card Weekend. That might’ve meant that Seattle would be advancing to the Divisional Round instead of the Giants.
I wish I had more to break down in this post. Hopefully, next year’s edition will have more interesting changes to the standings.
“I’m not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work, there, Lou.”
– Marge Gunderson, “Fargo” (1996)
The NFL postseason is upon us and it ought to be an entertaining next few weeks. With Green Bay getting eliminated from playoff contention last week, I won’t have a rooting interest. Sure, I’d like to see my Packers compete for a chance to win the Super Bowl, but this is a refreshing feeling. I’m looking forward to just being a spectator and watching stress-free football.
I don’t think the playoff field is as wide open as it was last year, so I don’t anticipate as many upsets. I could see four or five different teams win the Super Bowl, which is average in a given season. However, I think the contenders are even. I feel like the top teams in both conferences have strengths, but they also have their share of question marks. We don’t typically get that, so, in a way, the field is pretty open.
Super Wild Card Weekend
AFC:
Los Angeles Chargers tight end Donald Parham Jr. (89) is congratulated by quarterback Justin Herbert (10) after a touchdown pass in the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) at No. 4 Jacksonville (9-8) TIAA Bank Field Jacksonville, Fla. Line: Chargers -2.5 Over/under: 47.5
I’m actually going to pick Jacksonville to win this game. Coaching matters in the postseason and I have a lot more trust in Doug Pederson than I do Brandon Staley. I expect the Jaguars to lean on Travis Etienne and run the ball effectively against the Chargers’ defense, which allows 5.4 yards per rushing attempt. I also think almost losing to Tennessee last week will motivate Jacksonville to be ready to play.
Prediction: Jaguars 23, Chargers 20
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) drops back to throw during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
With Lamar Jackson being ruled out for this game, I have to pick Cincinnati. Baltimore’s offense has been terrible without Jackson under center – averaging 12.5 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. That’s not going to be good enough to beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in the league – winners of eight games in a row. I expect the Bengals to win comfortably.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 17
Buffalo Bills linebacker Tyrel Dodson (53) talks to head coach Sean McDermott during the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Miami (9-8) at No. 2 Buffalo (13-3) Highmark Stadium Orchard Park, N.Y. Line: Bills -13 Over/under: 43.5
I know that Miami almost won in Buffalo a few weeks ago, but I’ll be surprised if it can replicate that kind of performance this week. The line in this game has shifted pretty heavily in the Bills’ favor, which tells me the Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater. Even if either of them played, I still expect Buffalo to win comfortably. The Bills are the much better team right now.
Prediction: Bills 34, Dolphins 17
NFC:
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) and running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) celebrate a touchdown during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Dallas (12-5) at No. 4 Tampa Bay (8-9) Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Fla. Line: Cowboys -2.5 Over/under: 45.5
Dallas has had a great season, but I don’t like the way it’s entering the playoffs. The Cowboys’ pass rush regressed at the end of the regular season and Dak Prescott isn’t seeing the field well – throwing 11 interceptions in his last seven starts. I’m not convinced that Tampa Bay has figured things out, but it’s been playing much better recently. With the game in Tampa, I think the Buccaneers find a way to win.
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 17
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) celebrates with Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) after connecting on a touchdown pass against the Washington Commandersduring the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 New York Giants (9-7-1) at No. 3 Minnesota (13-4) U.S. Bank Stadium Minneapolis Line: Vikings -3 Over/under: 48
I went back and forth on this game all week, I decided to pick the Giants to win. I think they’re going to be able to move the ball on Minnesota’s defense, which has allowed 25.2 points per game, 5.8 yards per play, and 4.2 yards per rush at home. I think the Giants have the coaching advantage in Brian Daboll. Minnesota has also sustained too many injuries to its offensive line.
Prediction: Giants 27, Vikings 23
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates with offensive tackle Trent Williams (71) after a touchdown during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Seattle (9-8) at No. 2 San Francisco (13-4) Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara, Calif. Line: 49ers -9.5 Over/under: 42
Yes, it’s hard to beat a team three times in the NFL, but I can’t bring myself to pick against San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan has the 49ers playing very well – winners of 10 games in a row. San Francisco’s defense has allowed only 14.4 points per game, 5.0 yards per play, and 3.2 yards per rush during that stretch. I think Seattle’s offense will have a difficult time getting much going in this matchup.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Seahawks 17
Divisional Round
AFC:
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid watches play against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Jacksonville at No. 1 Kansas City (14-3)
I have a lot of respect for Doug Pederson, but this feels like when Jacksonville’s run comes to an end. I don’t think the Jaguars match up with the Chiefs. Jacksonville’s defense is going to have a difficult time defending Kansas City’s offense, which averaged 25.1 points per game and 6.1 yards per play at home. I’m not convinced Trevor Lawrence will be able to outperform Patrick Mahomes.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 24
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) celebrates the sack with defensive end Sam Hubbard (94) during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 Cincinnati at No. 2 Buffalo
This might be the best matchup of the postseason. With this game in Buffalo, I have to give the slight advantage to the Bills. They’ve been excellent at home – outscoring opponents by 107 points and averaging 6.6 yards per play offensively. I think Buffalo’s defensive front poses a lot of problems for Burrow and Cincinnati’s offensive line, which has sustained too many injuries recently.
Prediction: Bills 27, Bengals 20
NFC:
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) runs for a touchdown after a catch against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
No. 6 New York Giants at No. 1 Philadelphia (14-3)
I think getting the bye week is going to help Philadelphia get healthy. If the Eagles are near full strength, it’s going to be difficult for the Giants to win. They don’t have a good roster and I think Daboll can only take them so far. I don’t see a matchup in this game that the Giants are going to be able to exploit. Philadelphia is better across the board and I expect it to advance.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) calls a play at the line against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Tampa Bay at No. 2 San Francisco
I don’t see Tampa Bay going on a deep postseason run. The Buccaneers haven’t won more than two games in a row and Tom Brady hasn’t played that well. I expect San Francisco to win this game and I’m not sure it’d be that close. Tampa Bay’s offensive line hasn’t been healthy and the 49ers have one of the best defensive front sevens in the NFL. This feels like a bad matchup for the Buccaneers.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Buccaneers 20
Championship Sunday
AFC Championship:
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs out of thr pocket against the Minnesota Vikings in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Buffalo vs. No. 1 Kansas City
Remember, if Buffalo or Cincinnati meet Kansas City in the AFC Championship, the game is going to be played at a neutral site. That’s going to be incredibly beneficial for the Bills, and part of the reason why I’m picking them to win this game. I also think Buffalo will have this game circled after blowing a lead with 13 seconds left in the playoffs against Kansas City last season.
Prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 24
NFC Championship:
San Francisco 49ers safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. (31) celebrates with cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (38) and defensive end Charles Omenihu (94) after intercepting a pass against the Arizona Cardinals in the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 San Francisco at No. 1 Philadelphia
It feels like the NFC is going to come down to these two teams. Philadelphia is still one of the top teams in the league, but I worry about its injuries. It’d be one thing if they sustained injuries to role players, but the Eagles have lost some of their best players recently. San Francisco is the healthier and more physical team. I think the 49ers are poised to go on the road and knock off Philadelphia.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Eagles 21
Super Bowl LVII
No. 2 Buffalo vs. No. 2 San Francisco
I picked these teams to meet in the Super Bowl in the preseason and I see no reason to pick against them now. I’m not convinced that San Francisco can win it all with a rookie quarterback in Brock Purdy. He’s played well, but I need to see it happen before I believe it can happen. I have “team of destiny” vibes from Buffalo after Damar Hamlin’s scare on the field. The Bills played very well last week in response and I think they can carry that momentum to the postseason. I’m going to pick Buffalo to win its first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 24 Super Bowl MVP: Josh Allen
“I could write shorter sermons but when I get started I’m too lazy to stop.”
– Abraham Lincoln, “Lincoln” (2012)
Power rankings:
Biggest riser: Seattle (+7) Biggest faller: Green Bay (-6)
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Las Vegas Raiders with guard Andrew Wylie (77) and running back Jerick McKinnon (1) during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) Week 18 result: W, 31-13 at Las Vegas Previous: 4 (+3)
I understand that Las Vegas didn’t have anything to play for, but was the best Kansas City has looked in weeks. The Chiefs didn’t turn the ball over, they ran the ball effectively, and were very explosive offensively.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver John Brown (16) celebrates a touchdown against the New England Patriots with quarterback Josh Allen (17) and offensive tackle Dion Dawkins (73) in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3) Week 18 result: W, 35-23 vs. New England Previous: 1 (-1)
Buffalo took care of business against New England and clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC. I still have concerns about if this team can run the ball effectively in the playoffs, which is key to making a deep run.
San Francisco 49ers safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. (31) celebrates with cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (38) and defensive end Charles Omenihu (94) after intercepting a pass against the Arizona Cardinals in the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
3. San Francisco 49ers (13-4) Week 18 result: W, 38-13 vs. Arizona Previous: 3
It’s hard to pick against San Francisco right now. The 49ers have won 10 games in a row and Brock Purdy is playing well as a rookie. Vegas even considers San Francisco and Philadelphia to almost be on the same level.
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) celebrates the sack with defensive end Sam Hubbard (94) during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
It feels like this team is hobbling to the finish line. The injuries are piling up for Cincinnati and I’m not convinced this team is poised to make a deep postseason run. The Bengals might not even get past this weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands the ball off to running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) against the New York Giants during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
5. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) Week 18 result: W, 22-16 vs. New York Giants Previous: 7 (+2)
I’m not concerned that Philadelphia barely beat the Giants. The Eagles locked up the No. 1 seed with the win, which will allow them to get healthy during the bye week. It’s also a good sign that Jalen Hurts played Sunday.
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) looks to pass in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) Week 18 result: L, 28-31 at Denver Previous: 6
Justin Herbert played the majority of Sunday’s game, but I don’t think the Chargers took it seriously. They’re getting healthier and have a chance to make a postseason run. This team has a tough matchup this week, though.
Dallas Cowboys safety Malik Hooker (28) celebrates with teammates after intercepting a pass in the end zone against the Washington Commanders during the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
7. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) Week 18 result: L, 6-26 at Washington Previous: 5 (-2)
Dallas isn’t playing good football entering the postseason. Its pass rush has all but disappeared the last few weeks and Dak Prescott has struggled — throwing 11 interceptions in his last seven starts.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) celebrates his touchdown reception during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports
8. Minnesota Vikings (13-4) Week 18 result: W, 29-13 at Chicago Previous: 11 (+3)
With the news of Justin Fields sitting out Sunday’s game, Minnesota was practically handed another win. The Vikings still have negative point difference, which is the worst from s 13-win team in NFL history.
New York Giants wide receiver Kenny Golladay (19) celebrates his touchdown with teammates during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
9. New York Giants (9-7-1) Week 18 result: L, 16-22 at Philadelphia Previous: 8 (-1)
The Giants rested a bunch of starters Sunday and they still almost found a way to win the game. Brian Daboll has done an excellent job getting this team, which was supposed to be in the middle of a rebuild, to the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Josh Allen (41) and defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris (95) celebrate after a play against the Tennessee Titans in the fourth quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
What a turnaround it’s been for Jacksonville — going from the worst record in the NFL to winning the AFC South division. It’s amazing what happens when you get a quality head coach. This team has a very bright future.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Anthony Brown (12) throws in the fourth quarter during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports
I’m expecting Baltimore to be at full strength this weekend against Cincinnati. If so, I think the Ravens will be a dangerous team. I don’t think they can win the Super Bowl, but they can definitely spoil some seasons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) Week 18 result: L, 17-30 at Atlanta Previous: 12
I can’t put much stock in the way Tampa Bay played Sunday. The Buccaneers had nothing to gain and didn’t it seriously. Even though this team is playing better, I’m still not convinced it can go on a deep postseason run.
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll reacts to a play against the Los Angeles Rams during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
13. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) Week 18 result: W, 19-16 vs. Los Angeles Rams (OT) Previous: 20 (+7)
Pete Carroll deserves more credit for NFL Coach of the Year. We thought this team was entering a rebuild after trading Russell Wilson. Instead, the Seahawks find themselves in the playoffs and have a ton of draft capital.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Skylar Thompson (19) scrambles against the New York Jets during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
14. Miami Dolphins (9-8) Week 18 result: W, 11-6 vs. New York Jets Previous: 16 (+2)
Miami found a way to sneak in the playoffs, but I have no idea what to expect from this team. The Dolphins are banged up at the quarterback position. Even if Tua Tagovailoa plays, I don’t trust him in cold weather.
Detroit Lions wide receivers D.J. Chark (4) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) celebrate after Chark’s reception for a first down late in the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Tork Mason/USA Today NETWORK-Wisconsin
15. Detroit Lions (9-8) Week 18 result: W, 20-16 at Green Bay Previous: 14 (-1)
This has to be the best Detroit fans have felt about their team in years. Dan Campbell has proven to be, at minimum, a decent head coach. The Lions still have draft capital, too. I think this team has a bright future.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates with wide receiver Allen Lazard (13) following a touchdown during the third quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
16. Green Bay Packers (8-9) Week 18 result: L, 16-20 vs. Detroit Previous: 10 (-6)
A disappointing end to a disappointing season for Green Bay. The Packers have a lot of question marks entering the offseason. There’s also uncertainty about whether or not Aaron Rodgers will remain with the team.
Pittsburgh Steelers safety Damontae Kazee (23) and linebacker T.J. Watt (90) celebrate an interception by Kazee against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Tomlin continues his streak of never having a losing season as a head coach. If there was ever a year for it to happen, it was this one. What he did with Pittsburgh despite the 2-6 start was an incredible coaching job.
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
18. New England Patriots (8-9) Week 18 result: L, 23-35 at Buffalo Previous: 13 (-5)
New England got eliminated with Sunday’s loss. I don’t know how Bill Belichick will approach the offseason. The Patriots need to improve offensively, including hiring a real coordinator and getting some playmakers.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold (14) hands off to running back D’Onta Foreman (33) against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
19. Carolina Panthers (7-10) Week 18 result: W, 10-7 at New Orleans Previous: 22 (+3)
I have Carolina circled as a team to watch. The Panthers actually have some nice players on their roster. However, it all depends on how they handle the quarterback position and head coach vacancy this offseason.
New Orleans Saints tight end Adam Trautman (82) blocks against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
20. New Orleans Saints (7-10) Week 18 result: L, 7-10 vs. Carolina Previous: 18 (-2)
I don’t think New Orleans is in the best spot right now. This team doesn’t have much draft capital and it’s cap strapped. The Saints are going to try to get a first-round pick for Sean Payton, but I don’t expect it to happen.
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski reacts on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
I’d like to see what Kevin Stefanski can do with Deshaun Watson as his starting quarterback for a full season. This year didn’t go well, but I still think he’s a pretty good coach. I don’t think the Browns are in a terrible spot.
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) celebrates with Commanders guard Chris Paul (75) and Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) after scoring a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
22. Washington Commanders (8-8-1) Week 18 result: W, 26-6 vs. Dallas Previous: 23 (+1)
There has been amole evidence that Washington plays better without Carson Wentz under center. I think the Commanders have to move on from Wentz and build around Taylor Heinicke or Sam Howell.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay celebrates a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
23. Los Angeles Rams (5-12) Week 18 result: L, 16-19 at Seattle (OT) Previous: 21 (-2)
The speculation continues to grow that the Rams are going to enter a rebuild this offseason and that Sean McVay might step down as head coach. If so, I think the outlook of this team is bleak for the next few years.
Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels watches from the sidelines against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
24. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) Week 18 result: L, 13-31 vs. Kansas City Previous: 24
Las Vegas has a major question mark at the quarterback position in the offseason. I’m not convinced Derek Carr will be back after being benched. This roster is ready to win now and that felt like the final straw for Carr.
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
25. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) Week 18 result: W, 30-17 vs. Tampa Bay Previous: 25
One thing to keep in mind with Atlanta is that it won only seven games with one of the easiest strength of schedules in the NFL (.467). The Falcons don’t have a good roster and their quarterback situation is a question mark.
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) looks to pass in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
26. Denver Broncos (5-12) Week 18 result: W, 31-28 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Previous: 27 (+1)
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Denver plays its best football after firing Nathaniel Hackett. This is an attractive job, but it comes with a lot of baggage. I think the Broncos might have a difficult time filling this vacancy.
New York Jets quarterback Joe Flacco (19) throws a pass against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
27. New York Jets (7-10) Week 18 result: L, 6-11 at Miami Previous: 26 (-1)
The Jets need a change offensively, whether that’s moving on from their coordinator or Zach Wilson. Joe Douglas also needs to get the quarterback position right, so I expect them to be in the mix for some veteran.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback David Blough (17) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
28. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) Week 18 result: L, 13-38 at San Francisco Previous: 28
It was announced that Arizona fired general manager Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury on Monday. I think that’s the right decision for this team. I’ve been on the record that the Cardinals should’ve done it last year.
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus looks on during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports
29. Chicago Bears (3-14) Week 18 result: L, 13-29 vs. Minnesota Previous: 29
I know we’re supposed to frown upon tanking, but I have zero issue with the way Chicago handled the last few weeks of the season. The Bears now have the No. 1 overall pick. I expect them to try to trade it to get more assets.
Houston Texans defensive end Jonathan Greenard (52) celebrates a touchdown on a recovered fumble Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, during a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Scheer-USA TODAY Sports
30. Houston Texans (3-13-1) Week 18 result: W, 32-31 at Indianapolis Previous: 31 (+1)
Houston’s win over Indianapolis might set the organization back even more. That also might be why Lovie Smith was fired. The Texans need a quarterback and they might’ve played their way out of getting Bryce Young.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) calls a play at the line against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
I have no idea where Tennessee goes from here. If not for injuries, the Titans would probably be a playoff team. However, they’re going to be cap strapped this offseason. I think this team will look different next season.
Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) celebrates his touchdown with teammates in the third quarter against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
32. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1) Week 18 result: L, 31-32 vs. Houston Previous: 32
Indianapolis is a team to watch this offseason. Outside of the quarterback position, the Colts have a decent roster. They’re also in a good spot to draft a quarterback. I expect this to be a more attractive job than people think.
Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (38) returns an interception during the second half against the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City (13-3) at Las Vegas (6-10) Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas Line: Chiefs -9.5 Over/under: 52.5
I haven’t liked the way Kansas City has been playing recently, but it should still win this game. The Chiefs are fighting for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC and Las Vegas has nothing to gain from winning. Plus, the Raiders will be starting Jarrett Stidham again. I know he looked pretty good last week, but I’m not convinced he can have another performance like that in back-to-back games.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Raiders 24
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates with running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) after Etienne Jr. scores a touchdown during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee (7-9) at Jacksonville (8-8) TIAA Bank Field Jacksonville, Fla. Line: Jaguars -6.5 Over/under: 40
This game is going to decide the winner of the AFC South division, so the team that wins is guaranteed a playoff spot. Even with a lot on the line, I’m having a difficult time seeing Tennessee emerging victorious. The Titans have sustained too many injuries across their roster and are down to their third-string quarterback. Jacksonville is red hot right now and the much healthier team.
Prediction: Jaguars 28, Titans 14
Sunday:
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (4) passes the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay (8-8) at Atlanta (6-10) Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta Line: Falcons -4 Over/under: 40.5
Despite what Todd Bowles has said this week, Vegas isn’t under the impression that Tampa Bay is going to play its starters (at least not for long). I expect Atlanta to try hard, even though it has nothing to gain by winning. The Falcons have a lot of young players that need reps, including quarterback Desmond Ridder, and I think Arthur Smith will want to end the season on a positive note.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (28) runs the ball as Cincinnati Bengals safety Vonn Bell (24) makes the tackle during the first quarter at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
New England (8-8) at Buffalo (12-3) Highmark Stadium Orchard Park, N.Y. Line: Bills -7 Over/under: 42.5
I’m curious to see how Buffalo will respond after what happened to Damar Hamlin on Monday night. Going by Josh Allen and Sean McDermott’s reactions this week, I think the Bills will show up. They still have a chance of getting the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. I’n having a difficult time trusting Mac Jones, who hasn’t been impressive the last few weeks, to go on the road and outperform Allen.
Prediction: Bills 28, Patriots 20
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota (12-4) at Chicago (3-13) Soldier Field Chicago Line: Vikings -7.5 Over/under: 43
Nathan Peterman will start in place of Justin Fields, so I have to go with Minnesota to win this game. Peterman has thrown three touchdowns and 13 interceptions and posted a passer rating of 32.2 in 12 games in his career. Chicago is trying to lose this game to improve its chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick. The Vikings need a win to potentially help them get better seeding in the playoffs.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 13
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) drops back to throw during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Baltimore has already clinched a playoff spot and it doesn’t sound like Lamar Jackson is going to play. Tyler Huntley has struggled the last few weeks and is also injured. I expect the Ravens to rest their key players this week. Cincinnati is still in the mix to get home-field advantage in the AFC, and has arguably had time to rest with Monday’s game getting canceled. I have to go with the Bengals to win.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 16
Indianapolis Colts head coach Jeff Saturday reacts during the second half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Houston (2-13-1) at Indianapolis (4-11-1) Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis Line: Colts -2.5 Over/under: 38
I’m actually going to go out on a limb and pick Houston to win. Indianapolis has looked lifeless the last few weeks, specifically in last week’s game. The Colts have been outscored 151-68 in their last four games, too. I think Indianapolis has given up on the season, whereas the Texans are at least trying under Love Smith. I have to pick the team that’s at least showing signs of life, which is Houston.
Prediction: Texans 13, Colts 10
Miami Dolphins quarterback Skylar Thompson (19) throws the ball against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
New York Jets (7-9) at Miami (8-8) Hard Rock Stadium Miami Line: Dolphins -2 Over/under: 38.5
Miami must win this game to have a chance of being a playoff team, so it still has plenty to gain. The Jets are eliminated from the postseason and don’t have any reason to try to win this week. I also don’t trust the Jets’ offense, which has been out of sorts the last few weeks. The Dolphins are down to Skylar Thompson at quarterback, but I think they can win with him.
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jets 13
New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) celebrates his interception return for a touchdown with teammates during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Carolina (6-10) at New Orleans (7-9) Caesars Superdome New Orleans Line: Saints -3.5 Over/under: 42.5
I like the way Sam Darnold has been playing the last few weeks, but I’m going to give the slight advantage to New Orleans. The Saints have won three games in a row since their bye week. They’ve also held their opponents to 12.6 points per game and 4.6 yards per play during that stretch. I also think Carolina is going to call off the dogs in order to improve its chances at a higher draft pick.
Prediction: Saints 24, Panthers 21
Pittsburgh Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (39) celebrates a fourth quarter interception of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (2) at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
I see no reason to pick against Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin has the Steelers playing very well right now, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve allowed only 16.8 points per game and 4.9 yards per play in their last eight games. I think Pittsburgh’s defense poses a lot of problems for Deshaun Watson, who’s been rusty in his last three starts since his return to the field.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 15
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) celebrates with team mates after scoring against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Denver (4-12) Empower Field at Mile High Denver Line: Broncos -2.5 Over/under: 40
There’s been a dramatic shift in the line of this game. The Chargers started as the favorite and it’s recently swung in favor of Denver. That signals to me that Vegas knows that the Chargers are resting starters since they’ve clinched a playoff spot. If true, I’m going to give the advantage to the Broncos. After such a disappointing season, they need to finish strong and go into the offseason with momentum.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Chargers 17
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Kyzir White (43) celebrates with linebacker Haason Reddick (7) after a defensive stop against the New Orleans Saints during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
New York Giants (9-6-1) at Philadelphia (13-3) Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia Line: Eagles -14 Over/under: 43
I’ve received no indication if the Giants plan to rest their starters or not, but Vegas seems to think they will. That might end up being true because I think the Giants would rather Philadelphia have the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC than Dallas. The Eagles are banged up, but they need to win to clinch home-field advantage. If the Giants are resting their starters, I expect Philadelphia to win.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (24) celebrates with San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona (4-12) at San Francisco (12-4) Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara, Calif. Line: 49ers -14 Over/under: 40.5
San Francisco still has a chance to get the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, but it needs to win this game to improve its chances. At the least, it’ll be motivated to improve its playoff seeding. I expect Kyle Shanahan to have the 49ers more buttoned up after almost getting beat by a bad Las Vegas team last week. Arizona has also been a mess recently – losing eight of its last nine games.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Cardinals 14
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll (left) talks with quarterback Geno Smith (7) during a fourth quarter timeout against the New York Jets at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Rams (5-11) at Seattle (8-8) Lumen Field Seattle Line: Seahawks -6 Over/under: 41.5
The Rams don’t have anything to gain, but I expect them to want to go into the offseason with momentum since they don’t have a first-round pick. Without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald, it’s going to be difficult. Seattle is fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC, so Pete Carroll should have this team ready to play. With this being a home game for them, I have to go with the Seahawks.
Prediction: Seahawks 21, Rams 17
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) celebrates with tight end Dalton Schultz (86) after a touchdown during the second half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas (12-4) at Washington (7-8-1) FedEx Field Landover, Md. Line: Cowboys -7 Over/under: 41
I’m surprised that Dallas isn’t favored by more points. The Cowboys are going to be playing their starters since they still have a chance of getting home-field advantage in the NFC. Washington is a mess right now – losers of three games in a row – and eliminated from the postseason. The Commanders are also starting rookie quarterback Sam Howell and I have no idea what to expect from him.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Commanders 13
Game of the week:
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates scoring a touchdown with tight end Tyler Davis (84) against the Minnesota Vikings in the fourth quarter of their game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports
Detroit (8-8) at Green Bay (8-8) Lambeau Field Green Bay, Wis. Line: Packers -4.5 Over/under: 49
With this game in Lambeau, I have to go with Green Bay to win. Detroit has struggled on the road – allowing 26.1 points per game, 6.4 yards per play, and 165 rushing yards per game. Jared Goff has also struggled in cold weather throughout his career. The Packers have been running the ball very well the last few weeks. I expect Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to be very productive.
Biggest riser: Tampa Bay (+6) Biggest faller: Washington (-11)
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (28) runs the ball as Cincinnati Bengals safety Vonn Bell (24) makes the tackle during the first quarter at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
I didn’t know which team to put in this spot after what happened this past week. I decided on Buffalo because I still think it has the best roster in the NFL. However, football fans only want Damar Hamlin to recover.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) drops back to throw during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati‘s injuries concern me, but this team might be the best in the AFC. The Bengals were playing well heading into Monday. I hope Cincinnati and Buffalo are able to play that game, but I understand if they can’t.
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (24) celebrates with San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
3. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) Week 17 result: W, 37-34 at Las Vegas (OT) Previous: 5 (+2)
I’m willing to give San Francisco a mulligan for its performance in Las Vegas. I’m still very impressed with the way the 49ers have been playing the last few weeks, which is why I’ve finally propelled them above Kansas City.
Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (38) returns an interception during the second half against the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
4. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) Week 17 result: W, 27-24 vs. Denver Previous: 4
I’m starting to become concerned about Kansas City. This is now five weeks in a row where the Chiefs didn’t play that well. This team is making too many mistakes, which might be problematic in the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) celebrates with tight end Dalton Schultz (86) after a touchdown during the second half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas didn’t play its best game against a Tennessee team that’s hobbling to the finish line. The Cowboys still found a way to win comfortably, and the final score really wasn’t indicative of the play on the field.
Los Angeles Chargers tight end Donald Parham Jr. (89) is congratulated by quarterback Justin Herbert (10) after a touchdown pass in the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) Week 17 result: W, 31-10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Previous: 8 (+2)
The Chargers are becoming a dangerous team. They’ve won five of their last six games and are getting key players back from injuries. With Justin Herbert under center, they’re going to have a chance to make a run.
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Kyzir White (43) celebrates with linebacker Haason Reddick (7) after a defensive stop against the New Orleans Saints during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
7. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) Week 17 result: L, 10-20 vs. New Orleans Previous: 1 (-6)
Injuries are piling up at the wrong time for Philadelphia. I still think the Eagles have a chance to win the NFC, but I’m becoming less convinced with the injuries they’ve sustained and the closer we get to the playoffs.
New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll greets quarterback Daniel Jones (8) after a rushing touchdown during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
8. New York Giants (9-6-1) Week 17 result: W, 38-10 vs. Indianapolis Previous: 9 (+1)
There are a lot of good candidates for Coach of the Year this season, but I feel like the award should go to Brian Daboll. He’s done an incredible job getting this team to the playoffs, despite having such a subpar roster.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates scoring a touchdown with tight end Tyler Davis (84) against the Minnesota Vikings in the fourth quarter of their game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports
9. Green Bay Packers (8-8) Week 17 result: W, 41-17 vs. Minnesota Previous: 13 (+4)
Green Bay is officially back from the dead. The Packers have won four games in a row and are in a win-or-go-home scenario this week in their game against Detroit. I think this team is in a really good spot right now.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates with running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) after Etienne Jr. scores a touchdown during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville has almost won as many games this year as it did in the 2019-21 seasons (10). Trevor Lawrence seems to have emerged as a quality starter, too. It’s amazing what happens when you hire a good head coach.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
11. Minnesota Vikings (12-4) Week 17 result: L, 17-41 at Green Bay Packers Previous: 7 (-4)
I had to bump a team out of my top 10 and it happened to be Minnesota, and I think it’s justified. The Vikings were terrible Sunday. They also have the worst point differential (-19) of any 12-4 team in NFL history.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) celebrates after a sack against the Carolina Panthers in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) Week 17 result: W, 30-24 vs. Carolina Previous: 18 (+6)
Tampa Bay clinched a playoff spot after its win over Carolina. I still think we need to temper expectations for the Buccaneers. They were trailing 21-6 at one point Sunday. I don’t think they’ve figured things out.
New England Patriots linebacker Josh Uche (55) reacts with defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) after a sack against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
13. New England Patriots (8-8) Week 17 result: W, 23-21 vs. Miami Previous: 15 (+2)
With the win over Miami, New England keeps its postseason hopes alive. Plus, considering what happened to Buffalo on Monday, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots steal a win this week and clinch a playoff spot.
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) rolls out of the pocket against the Chicago Bears in the first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
14. Detroit Lions (8-8) Week 17 result: W, 41-10 vs. Chicago Previous: 16 (+2)
If Detroit’s defense is able to get stops, this team has a chance to win this week and sneak into the postseason. The Lions have an offense capable of scoring quickly. I think they’re going to give Green Bay a dog fight.
Pittsburgh Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (39) celebrates a fourth quarter interception of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (2) at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Tomlin has done an incredible job getting Pittsburgh to this point. Remember, the Steelers were 2-6 earlier this season. They now have a chance to clinch a playoff spot. I don’t think it’s out of the question either.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Skylar Thompson (19) throws the ball against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
16. Miami Dolphins (8-8) Week 17 result: L, 21-23 at New England Previous: 14 (-2)
Miami hasn’t been able to catch a break at the quarterback position, which is why this team has lost five games in a row. I’m not convinced the Dolphins will make the playoffs after such a promising start to this season.
Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) celebrates with tight end Mark Andrews (89) after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
Baltimore has all but clinched a playoff spot despite its current skid. Cincinnati getting its game postponed works to the Ravens’ benefit. They’re still alive to win the AFC North. Now they need Lamar Jackson to get healthy.
New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) celebrates his interception return for a touchdown with teammates during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
18. New Orleans Saints (7-9) Week 17 result: W, 20-10 at Philadelphia Previous: 19 (+1)
Despite the win, New Orleans was eliminated from the postseason this past week. It’s hard to believe that the Saints have won seven games. There were times it felt like they were one of the worst teams in the league.
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) celebrates with teammates after throwing a touchdown pass against the Washington Commanders during the third quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
19. Cleveland Browns (7-9) Week 17 result: W, 24-10 at Washington Previous: 20 (+1)
I think Deshaun Watson played his best game as Cleveland’s quarterback. He made big throws in the win over Washington. The Browns need to add to this momentum with the offseason around the corner.
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll (left) talks with quarterback Geno Smith (7) during a fourth quarter timeout against the New York Jets at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
20. Seattle Seahawks (8-8) Week 17 result: W, 23-6 vs. New York Jets Previous: 25 (+5)
I have to admit that I jumped the gun a bit by leaving Seattle for dead last week. The Seahawks still have life. They need a win and a Green Bay loss to get in the playoffs, which I don’t think is out of the question.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Baker Mayfield (17) throws the ball in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
21. Los Angeles Rams (5-11) Week 17 result: L, 10-31 at Los Angeles Chargers Previous: 22 (+1)
It’s hard to be competitive without players like Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. The Rams haven’t had anything to play for for the last few weeks, but they at least appear to be trying hard.
Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore (2) celebrates with quarterback Sam Darnold (14) after he scored a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
22. Carolina Panthers (6-10) Week 17 result: L, 24-30 at Tampa Bay Previous: 23 (+1)
I have to give Steve Wilks a lot of credit for the job he did as the interim head coach in Carolina. He gave the Panthers life, but they came up short of winning the NFC South. This team will now look ahead to the offseason.
Washington Commanders head coach Ron Rivera looks on against the Cleveland Browns during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
23. Washington Commanders (7-8-1) Week 17 result: L, 10-24 vs. Cleveland Previous: 12 (-11)
I have no idea what happened to Washington. I thought the Commanders were looking like a quality team just a few weeks ago. It also doesn’t help that Ron Rivera didn’t know the Commanders would be eliminated with a loss.
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) celebrates with Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller (83) after scoring a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
24. Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) Week 17 result: L, 34-37 vs. San Francisco (OT) Previous: 24
This season hasn’t gone the way Las Vegas hoped it would. The good news for the Raiders is that Jarrett Stidham played well Sunday. Who knows? Maybe they’ll be able to build around him going forward.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (4) passes the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
25. Atlanta Falcons (6-10) Week 17 result: W, 20-19 vs. Arizona Previous: 26 (+1)
Atlanta emerged victorious in what was arguably the least cared about game of Week 17. The Falcons now have six wins, which I don’t think anyone thought would happen in the preseason. Hats off to Arthur Smith.
New York Jets quarterback Mike White (5) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
26. New York Jets (7-9) Week 17 result: L, 6-23 at Seattle Previous: 28 (+2)
After starting the season 6-3, the Jets have now lost six of their last seven games. They’re officially eliminated from the postseason. Truthfully, the season was over for the Jets when Breece Hall tore his ACL in Week 7.
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) celebrates with team mates after scoring against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
27. Denver Broncos (4-12) Week 17 result: L, 24-27 at Kansas City Previous: 29 (+2)
I feel like that was the most life Denver has shown all season, and it comes the week after the team fired Nathaniel Hackett. Not only that, but it looked like the Broncos gave Russell Wilson a lot of support Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals defensive tackle Leki Fotu (95) celebrates with linebacker Isaiah Simmons (9) after a fumble recovery against the Atlanta Falcons in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
28. Arizona Cardinals (4-12) Week 17 result: L, 19-20 at Atlanta Previous: 30 (+2)
I’m not sure this season could end quick enough for Arizona. The Cardinals are now down to their fourth-string quarterback in David Blough, so it’s going to be very difficult for them to win another game.
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet (85) celebrates his touchdown against the Detroit Lions with tackle Braxton Jones (70) and guard Michael Schofield III (79) during the first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
29. Chicago Bears (3-13) Week 17 result: L, 10-41 at Detroit Previous: 31 (+2)
Chicago has looked almost lifeless the last two weeks. It makes me wonder if the Bears’ front office has told the coaching staff to lose these last few games on purpose in an attempt to get the No. 1 overall pick.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) completes a pass during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Everything that could’ve gone wrong for Tennessee has gone wrong recently. The Titans have lost six games in a row and the injuries continue to pile up. It’s hard to believe they still have a chance to make the playoffs.
Houston Texans head coach Lovie Smith looks up before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
With the way Indianapolis has been playing, I had to bump Houston up a spot. The Texans are a very bad team, but Lovie Smith at least has them playing hard. They must lose this week to get the No. 1 overall pick.
Indianapolis Colts head coach Jeff Saturday reacts during the second half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
32. Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1) Week 17 result: L, 10-38 at New York Giants Previous: 32
Indianapolis looked lifeless Sunday. It looked like the Colts have quit on this season. They’ve also been outscored 151-68 in their last four games. Those things are why I’ve put them in the last spot in my power rankings.
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) and running back Tony Pollard (20) celebrate after Lamb catches a pass for a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
With Ryan Tannehill out for the rest of the regular season and Derrick Henry being inactive this week, it feels like this game will be a mismatch for Tennessee. The Titans are going to be starting Josh Dobbs, who has a career passer rating of 39.1 and hasn’t appeared in a game since 2020. I can’t put much trust in the Titans. Dallas is the significantly better team and should get the win.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Titans 13
Sunday:
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (4) drops back to pass during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona (4-11) at Atlanta (5-10) Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta Line: Falcons -3.5 Over/under: 42
Neither of these offenses are playing well right now and both teams are down to backup quarterbacks. I guess I have to give the slight advantage to Atlanta? The Falcons’ defense has played somewhat well at home this season. Arizona’s offense has averaged only 14.6 points per game and 4.4 yards per play since Kyler Murray got hurt a few weeks ago.
Prediction: Falcons 17, Cardinals 16
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) drops back to pass during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago (3-12) at Detroit (7-8) Ford Field Detroit Line: Lions -6 Over/under: 52
If this game was in Chicago, I’d consider picking the Bears. However, they have a record of 1-6 on the road. Chicago’s defense has also allowed an average of 32.6 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in its last eight games. I don’t like the way that Detroit played last week, but I expect it to be able to move the ball on the Bears. I don’t think Justin Fields will be able to outscore the Lions.
Prediction: Lions 30, Bears 27
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid watches play against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Denver (4-11) at Kansas City (12-3) GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, Mo. Line: Chiefs -12.5 Over/under: 45
I don’t know what to expect from Denver after firing Nathaniel Hackett. Sometimes NFL teams come out motivated after the head coach is gone. Until I see otherwise, though, I think the Broncos are going to stay the same team that we’ve seen this season. With the game in Arrowhead, Kansas City should win comfortably. Denver’s offense isn’t good enough to go on the road and outscore the Chiefs.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Broncos 14
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) hands the ball to running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) during the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Miami (8-7) at New England (7-8) Gillette Stadium Foxboro, Mass. Line: Patriots -3 Over/under: 41.5
I probably wasn’t going to pick Miami to win this game even before Tua Tagovailoa was placed in concussion protocol. I don’t trust a warm-weather team like the Dolphins to go to Foxboro in December and defeat Bill Belichick. After losing four of its last five games, New England is desperate for a win to stay in the AFC playoff picture. I think Belichick will have the Patriots ready to play.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Dolphins 17
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) throws the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Indianapolis (4-10-1) at New York Giants (8-6-1) MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, N.J. Line: Giants -6 Over/under: 38.5
Indianapolis has lost five games in a row and has been outscored 113-58 in its last three games. The Colts are on their third different starting quarterback in Nick Foles. The Giants are in a much better position as a team and they need a win to clinch a playoff spot. Indianapolis’ offense has also struggled on the road, so the Giants won’t have to score a bunch of points in order to win.
Prediction: Giants 20, Colts 15
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans (6-9) at Philadelphia (13-2) Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia Line: Eagles -5.5 Over/under: 43
Even if Jalen Hurts doesn’t play this game, I think Philadelphia still has a great chance of winning this game. New Orleans hasn’t played well offensively in its last four road games – averaging 10.75 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. The Eagles have a very good defense and I think Gardner Minshew will be able to outperform the Saints’ struggling offense.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Saints 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end William Gholston (92) celebrates a play in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Carolina (6-9) at Tampa Bay (7-8) Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Fla. Line: Buccaneers -3 Over/under: 40.5
I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Carolina to win. It’s hard to pick against Tom Brady in a game that’ll likely decide the NFC South division, but Tampa Bay hasn’t played well. The Buccaneers have struggled offensively in their last seven games – averaging 17.1 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. I also think the Panthers’ defensive front will be able to get pressure on Brady.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20
Washington Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz (11) celebrates with wide receiver Curtis Samuel (10) after a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland (6-9) at Washington (7-7-1) FedEx Field Landover, Md. Line: Commanders -2 Over/under: 40
I don’t like the way Washington has been playing recently. The Commanders have lost two games in a row and have averaged 16 points per game and committed four turnovers during that stretch. They’ve also named Carson Wentz the starting quarterback again. I’m not confident in it, but I’m going to pick Cleveland to win since the Browns will likely have the quarterback advantage.
Prediction: Browns 17, Commanders 14
Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Tre Herndon (37) celebrates his fumble recovery against the New York Jets during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
I’m going to keep riding with Jacksonville. I think the Jaguars are trending in the right direction after winning five of its last seven games. Trevor Lawrence has also played very well during that stretch. Houston’s offense is one of the NFL’s worst – averaging 16.9 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. The Texans are coming off a win, but I think they’ll have a difficult time winning this game.
Prediction: Jaguars 23, Texans 13
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) celebrates with quarterback Brock Purdy (13) during the fourth quarter against the Washington Commanders at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco (11-4) at Las Vegas (6-9) Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas Line: 49ers -10 Over/under: 41.5
It’s hard to pick against San Francisco. The 49ers have won eight games in a row and averaged 28.7 points per game and 5.9 yards per play during that stretch. Plus, this team has been much better with Brock Purdy under center. Las Vegas has been too inconsistent and just benched Derek Carr for the rest of the regular season. I don’t think that’s going to bode well going up against Kyle Shanahan.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Raiders 17
New York Jets quarterback Chris Streveler (15) throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
New York Jets (7-8) at Seattle (7-8) Lumen Field Seattle Line: Jets -1.5 Over/under: 42.5
I’m surprised that the Jets are favored to win this game. They’ve lost five of their last six games and have been a mess offensively during that stretch. Mike White is going to be back at quarterback for them, but I’m not sure it’s going to make a difference. With the game in Seattle, I’m going to give the slight advantage to the Seahawks. They really need a win in order to stay in the NFC playoff picture.
Prediction: Seahawks 21, Jets 17
Green Bay Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas (29) celebrates with teammates after intercepting a pass from Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (not pictured) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota (12-3) at Green Bay (7-8) Lambeau Field Green Bay, Wis. Line: Packers -3.5 Over/under: 48
I know I’m biased, but I don’t see any reason to pick against Green Bay. The Packers have played well in their last six games. Minnesota’s defense has also struggled in its last seven games – allowing 30.2 points per game, 6.2 yards per play, and 131.7 rushing yards per game. Green Bay must win to better its chances of making the playoffs, and I expect it to move the ball effectively this week.
Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24
The Los Angeles Chargers defense celebrates a game clinching fourth down stop in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Rams (5-10) at Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) SoFi Stadium Inglewood, Calif. Line: Chargers -6.5 Over/under: 42
The Rams were very impressive in their win over Denver last week. We have to keep in mind, though, that the Rams have struggled on both sides of the ball all season and I doubt they’re turning things around. The Chargers are the better team right now – winners of four of their last five games. They also have a significant advantage at the quarterback position in Justin Herbert.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Rams 20
Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh reacts during the second half against the Atlanta Falconsat M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Pittsburgh (7-8) at Baltimore (10-5) M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore Line: Ravens -2.5 Over/under: 35
Both of these teams are in a similar situation. Their offenses are struggling and their defenses are playing well. If you’re a betting man, hammer the under in this game. With it being in Baltimore and the AFC North on the line, I’m going to give the advantage to the Ravens. Mike Tomlin has the Steelers playing well, but I think I have a little more trust in Tyler Huntley than I do Kenny Pickett.
Prediction: Ravens 16, Steelers 13
Monday/Game of the week:
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) celebrates with wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) after scoring a successful two-point try in the third quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
I’ve gone back and forth on which team to pick in this matchup. I haven’t liked the way Buffalo has played the last few weeks, but I think injuries are starting to pile up for Cincinnati. Buffalo’s defensive front could also pose a lot of problems for the Bengals’ offensive line, which just lost La’el Collins for the rest of the season. I have a feeling Sean McDermott will have the Bills ready to play.
All Things Sports from a Millennial 