2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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Price’s 2024 National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

Movie quote of the day:

“In case you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven’t, the Indians have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.”

— Harry Doyle, “Major League” (1989)

Fans walk outside the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y. Mandatory credit: Associated Press

Even though I’m a die-hard football fan and more of a casual baseball fan, I’ve always taken an interest in baseball’s Hall of Fame voting process. I’ve even voiced my disagreement with the Baseball Writers Association of America for the way it handles the process on this blog. That served as inspiration when I did this type of blog post for the first time last year.

The way this will work is that I’ll pretend that I’m a member of the BBWAA and cast my vote for which players on the 2024 ballot that I think should be in the Hall of Fame. Every year, BBWAA voters are given the ballot and are allowed to vote for up to 10 players. Here’s an example from 2022:

I know baseball is top of mind for the sports world this morning, so … here's my 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. Please respect my decision. More here: https://t.co/lpWiV4YVsY pic.twitter.com/iecszIFiue

— Marc Lancaster (@MarcLancaster) January 24, 2022

Remember, in order to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, a player must receive at least 75% of the votes cast by the BBWAA writers. Players receiving between 5% and 75% of the votes are reconsidered annually until a maximum of 10 years of eligibility. Any player who is named on fewer than 5% of ballots is dropped from future consideration. We haven’t had more than two players get inducted into the Hall of Fame in a single year since 2019, but I think we’ll eclipse that number this year.

My readers can probably guess that I don’t believe that steroid users should be in the Hall of Fame. So, no, I still won’t be voting for Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodríguez, Manny Ramírez, and Andy Pettitte. Each of those players have been linked to steroids in their careers. I also won’t vote for Carlos Beltrán, even though he was never linked to steroids. However, he was the alleged mastermind of the Houston Astros sign stealing scandal. I still think I have to hold him accountable like the players linked to steroids.

I originally planned on using all 10 of my votes on this ballot, but changed my mind. The ballot still isn’t quite strong enough to justify using all 10 votes. Remember, this isn’t a prediction, these are just the players I’d vote for if I was a member of the BBWAA.

Price’s ballot:

Todd Helton spent 17 seasons in the majors, all with the Colorado Rockies. Mandatory credit: Chris Humphreys, USA TODAY Sports

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013) 
Year on ballot: Sixth
2023 percentage of the vote: 72.2% (+20.2% from 2022)
Career stats: .316 batting average, 2,519 hits, 369 home runs, 1,406 RBIs
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, MLB batting champion (2000)

I respect players who spend their careers with one team. Helton is considered to be “Mr. Rocky” and was the first star player in Colorado. You can’t tell the story of baseball without him. He was also one of the best first basemen of his time — ranking in the top 75 in baseball history in career batting average. Helton’s percentage of the vote has increased an average of 13.9% every year he’s been on the ballot, so he should eclipse the 75% threshold this year.

Billy Wagner played in the majors for 15 seasons with the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Atlanta Braves. Mandatory credit: Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle

RP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Year on ballot: Ninth
2023 percentage of the vote: 68.1% (+17.1% from 2022)
Career stats: 2.31 ERA, 1,196 strikeouts, 422 saves
Accolades: 7x All-Star

Relief pitchers typically don’t get much respect from the BBWAA. There are currently just eight relievers in the Hall of Fame. Wagner should become the ninth this year, though. He ranks No. 6 in baseball history in saves and he posted an ERA below 2.00 five times. Wagner also has more strikeouts than Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, who’ve both been inducted to the Hall of Fame in recent years. I expect him to hear his name called.

Andruw Jones played in the majors for 17 seasons for the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, and New York Yankees. Mandatory credit: Al Tielemans/Sports Illustrated

OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Year on ballot: Seventh
2023 percentage of the vote: 58.1% (+16.7% from 2022)
Career stats: .254 batting average, 434 home runs, 1,289 RBIs
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, MLB home run leader (2005)

Jones is within striking distance of getting in the Hall of Fame this year, and for good reason. He ranks in the top 50 in baseball history career home runs. I understand that his batting average and RBIs are low, but he’s also one of only 15 players to win 10 Gold Glove awards. Jones was one of the best players of his time both at the plate and in the field. I doubt he gets enough votes this year, but Jones is on trajectory to get inducted in the next few years.

Omar Vizquel played in the majors for 24 seasons with the Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays. Mandatory credit: Getty Images

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Year on ballot: Seventh
2023 percent of the vote: 19.5% (-4.4% from 2022)
Stats: .272 batting average, 2,877 hits, 80 home runs, 951 RBIs
Accolades: 3x All-Star, 11x Gold Glove

I wonder if Vizquel can turn things around. His number of votes has fallen drastically since 2020 for reasons that have nothing to do with what he did as a player. Vizquel is one of the best defensive shortstops to play the game — winning 11 Gold Glove awards and finishing tied for first in baseball history in field percentage. His offensive numbers aren’t great, but Vizquel should be in the Hall of Fame for his defensive expertise alone.

Jimmy Rollins played 17 seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago White Sox. Mandatory credit: Howard Smith/USA TODAY Sports

SS Jimmy Rollins (2000-16)
Year on ballot: Third
2023 percentage of the vote: 12.9% (+3.5% from 2022)
Career stats: .264 batting average, 2,455 hits, 231 home runs, 936 RBIs, 470 stolen bases
Accolades: World Series champion, NL MVP, 3x All-Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, 38-game hitting streak

I’m still surprised that Rollins hasn’t received more consideration from the voters. He was one of the best shortstops of his time. Rollins has the numbers and accolades to be in Cooperstown. He’s the only shortstop in baseball history to collect over 2,000 hits, 200 home runs, and 400 stolen bases in a career. Rollins also helped Philadelphia win its first World Series in almost 30 years. I’m very curious to see how many votes he receives this year.

Francisco Rodríguez played in the majors for 16 seasons with the Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, and Detroit Tigers. Mandatory credit: Robert Leiter/Getty Images)

RP Francisco Rodríguez (2002-17)
Year on ballot: Second
2023 percentage of the vote: 10.8%
Career stats: 2.86 ERA, 1,142 strikeouts, 437 saves
Accolades: World Series champion, 6x All-Star, 3x AL saves leader, MLB single-season saves record

Six of the eight relievers in the Hall of Fame had to wait an average of eight years, and one of those six had to be voted in through a committee. So, Rodríguez will likely be on the ballot for the foreseeable future. I expect him to get more consideration from the voters this year, though. Rodríguez recorded over 1,000 strikeouts and he ranks in the top five in baseball history in career saves. He also holds the record for saves in a single season (62).

Torii Hunter played 19 seasons in the majors with the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, and Detroit Tigers. Mandatory credit: Brian Bahr/Getty Images

OF Torii Hunter (1997-2015)
Year on ballot: Fourth
2023 percentage of the vote: 6.9% (+1.6% from 2022)
Career stats: .277 batting average, 2,452 hits, 353 home runs, 1,391 RBIs
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger

Hunter is dangerously close to being removed from the ballot and I think he deserves more consideration from the voters. Center field is a difficult position to play and Hunter was a Gold Glove award winner at the position multiple times. Only four outfielders in baseball history have won more Gold Glove awards than Hunter. He also wasn’t a slouch at the plate, which you typically don’t see from center fielders. I’m rooting for him to stay on the ballot.

Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) makes a throwing error to first base in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

3B Adrián Beltré (1998-2018)
Year on ballot: First
Career stats: .286 batting average, 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1,707 RBIs
Accolades: 4x All-Star, 5x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, NL home run leader (2004)

Beltré is close to a lock to get in the Hall of Fame his first year on the ballot. He’s one of just 13 players to eclipse 400 home runs, 3,000 hits, and 1,700 RBIs in a career. Seven of those 13 players were inducted to the Hall of Fame in their first year on the ballot (two aren’t eligible yet and the other three were linked to steroids). Beltré was also great defensively at third base. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t eclipse the 75% threshold.

Minnesota Twins first baseman Joe Mauer against the Cleveland Indians at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

C Joe Mauer (2004-18)
Year on ballot: First
Career stats: .306 batting average, 2,123 hits, 143 home runs, 923 RBIs
Accolades: AL MVP, 6x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 5x Silver Slugger, 3x AL batting champion

I could see a scenario where the voters flock to Mauer. He’s a “feel good story.” Mauer is from Minnesota and spent his entire career with the Twins, and was a great player. He was one of the best catchers of his time, both offensively and defensively. Mauer is one of just three catchers to win a league MVP since 1978, and the only catcher in baseball history to win three batting titles. He should get to Cooperstown one day, but I doubt it’s this year.

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2023 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Am I wrong?”

– Walter Sobchak, “The Big Lebowski” (1998)

I always enjoy March Madness, but I’m particularly looking forward to it this season. I’m getting tired of the NFL offseason storylines, specifically in regards to Aaron Rodgers and whether he’s going to play in 2023. College basketball is going to bring a refreshing change to my life, at least for the next three weeks. It also feels good having my West Virginia Mountaineers in the NCAA tournament after missing out last year, so I’m going to be even more invested.

Last year was one of the worst jobs I did when it came to filling out a bracket. By the end of the first day of last year’s tournament, Kentucky lost to Saint Peter’s and Iowa lost to Richmond. I had each of those teams getting to the Final Four, and I had Kentucky winning it all. Auburn was eliminated in the second round and Arizona lost in the Sweet 16. I had each of those teams getting to the Elite Eight, and I had Arizona playing for the national championship. If you don’t believe just how bad it was, just take a look.

I think I finished last year with a measly 38 points in all my bracket challenges, because I fill out the same bracket with every group. I’m not 100% sure if that’s the worst I’ve ever done, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not. I consider my reputation to be on the line this year. I need to do better and put last year’s abysmal performance behind me. For the first time ever on this blog, I’m going to be picking the First Four matchups. I don’t understand why I haven’t done that in the past.

My opinion of this NCAA tournament is that it’s one of the strongest ones I’ve ever seen. I think there were six or seven teams that had arguments to be No. 1 seeds. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen that before. There are also a plethora of mid-major schools with a lot of experience. I also wouldn’t bet against Big 12 members. The Big 12 has had four different schools make the Final Four in the last six tournaments. The previous two national champions have also come from that conference. March Madness never fails to be entertaining, but I think this tournament has a chance to be special.

Nevada Wolf Pack center Will Baker (50) drives for a layup against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

First Four – Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10)

The computers seem to think that there’s a substantial difference between these teams. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks almost 100 spots higher than Southeast Missouri State in KenPom’s rankings. The Redhawks also don’t rank that high in either adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency. The Islanders also have tournament experience from last year.

Winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

No. 11 Pitt (22-11) vs. No. 11 Mississippi State (21-12)

According to the metrics, Pitt is one of the worst teams in the tournament. The Panthers rank No. 77 in KenPom’s rankings, which is the 17th worst of the entire field. Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks – winners of nine of its last 13 games. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: Mississippi State

No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (19-15) vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (14-20)

The metrics consider these teams to be the two worst teams in the field. I don’t know what to make of them, but it’s telling that Fairleigh Dickinson has won 19 games and ranks No. 312 in KenPom’s rankings. That’s behind Texas Southern, which s entering the NCAA tournament six games below .500.

Winner: Texas Southern

No. 11 Nevada (22-10) vs. No. 11 Arizona State (22-12)

ESPN’s BPI rankings considers these teams to be in the bottom 20 of the tournament field. I guess I’m going to give the slight advantage to Arizona State. The Sun Devils have more talent and they’ve played somewhat well recently. Mountain West teams are also 1-11 in the NCAA tournament since 2016.

Winner: Arizona State

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats talks with Alabama Crimson Tide guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 64

South Regional

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 1 Alabama (29-5) – Birmingham, Ala.

A No. 16 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed only once in the history of the NCAA tournament. I don’t think I’m ever going to predict it to happen. Alabama looked impressive in the SEC tournament and I expect it to cruise to the next round.

Winner: Alabama

No. 9 West Virginia (19-14) vs. No. 8 Maryland (21-12) – Birmingham, Ala.

WVU feels like a team that’s going to benefit by getting out of Big 12 play. I also think this could be a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers. WVU struggles with turnovers, but Maryland isn’t good at forcing them. The Terrapins also don’t shoot the ball or rebound as well as the Mountaineers. I’m going to rely on the better head coach in Bob Huggins.

Winner: West Virginia

No. 12 Charleston (31-3) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (27-6) – Orlando, Fla.

The 5/12 matchups are always enticing to pick the upset, but I think this is a tough matchup for Charleston. San Diego State rebounds very well and likes to slow the game down. The Cougars don’t shoot the ball that well and they haven’t really been challenged in weeks. I expect the Aztecs to give Charleston a lot of problems.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Furman (27-7) vs. No. 4 Virginia (25-7) – Orlando, Fla.

I flirted with picking the upset in this matchup. Furman is a great offensive team that takes care of the basketball. I’m not sure the Paladins shoot well enough from 3-point territory to upset Virginia, though. The Cavaliers commit the fewest amount of turnovers in the country and shoot the ball well. It’s hard to pick against Tony Bennett and Virginia.

Winner: Virginia

No. 11 NC State (23-10) vs. No. 6 Creighton (21-12) – Denver

I’m not much of a believer in either of these coaches. Neither have had much success in the NCAA tournament. However, this feels like Greg McDermott’s best team at Creighton since his son was there in 2014. The Bluejays have also won 12 of their last 16 games. I feel like Creighton should advance because I didn’t think NC State should’ve made the tournament.

Winner: Creighton

No. 14 UC-Santa Barbara (27-7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (22-10) – Denver

I think this is a flawed Baylor team, but it should be able to take care of business in this game. UC-Santa Barbara is one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament and the Bears rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I expect the Gauchos will have a difficult time slowing down Baylor’s offense. The Bears also have a significant talent and coaching advantage.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Utah State (26-8) vs. No. 7 Missouri (24-9) – Sacramento, Calif.

I can’t get a read on Missouri. Winning 24 games and getting to the semifinals of the SEC tournament is an impressive feat, but the metrics consider the Tigers one of the worst teams in the tournament. Utah State ranks 33 spots higher than Missouri in KenPom’s rankings. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with the Aggies.

Winner: Utah State

No. 15 Princeton (21-8) vs. No. 2 Arizona (28-6) – Sacramento, Calif.

Ivy League schools actually have a decent track record in the NCAA tournament. This feels like a tough matchup for Princeton, though. Arizona is loaded with talent and has won 13 of its last 16 games, including winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts after making a basket and being fouled during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-5) – Columbus, Ohio

Texas Southern has the ability to rebound, which you need to do in order to beat Purdue. However, there’s no way I’m picking a team with a losing record to upset a No. 1 seed.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 FAU (31-3) vs. No. 8 Memphis (26-8) – Columbus, Ohio

This feels like a tough matchup for FAU. I think Memphis is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Tigers are loaded with talent and shoot the ball well. The best way for the Owls to win this game is to force turnovers and I don’t think they do that well enough – ranking No. 154 in the country.

Winner: Memphis

No. 12 Oral Roberts (30-4) vs. No. 5 Duke (26-8) – Orlando, Fla.

Oral Roberts is arguably the strongest No. 12 seed in the tournament. The Golden Eagles are an excellent offensive team and are red hot entering the NCAA tournament – winners of 17 games in a row. However, Duke is playing its best basketball right now after winning the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are also going to have a significant talent advantage.

Winner: Duke

No. 13 Louisiana (26-7) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (23-10) – Orlando, Fla.

Even though Tennessee hasn’t been the same since Zakai Zeigler got hurt, I still think it’s plenty talented to win this game. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 58 points per game. I don’t think Louisiana, which ranks No. 57 in adjusted offensive efficiency, is good enough to overcome Tennessee’s defense.

Winner: Tennessee

No. 11 Providence (21-11) vs. No. 6 Kentucky (21-11) – Greensboro, N.C.

I swore off picking Kentucky to go deep in the tournament after it lost to Saint Peter’s last year. However, I like the Wildcats in this matchup. They rank in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and rebound the ball very well. Providence doesn’t shoot the ball that well and I don’t think it’s talented enough to knock off Kentucky.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 14 Montana State (25-9) vs. No. 3 Kansas State (23-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

I’m not convinced that Montana State is good enough offensively to knock off Kansas State, which ranks in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bobcats don’t shoot that well from 3-point territory and aren’t the best rebounding team. Jerome Tang has done an excellent job in his first season with the Wildcats and I don’t see their season ending here.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 10 USC (22-10) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (19-12) – Columbus, Ohio

I think USC is talented enough to win this game, but I’m going to go with Michigan State. I’m a firm believer that coaching matters in March and the Spartans have that advantage with Tom Izzo, who’s lost in the Round of 64 only twice since 2011. I also think traveling across the country might have a negative effect on the Trojans.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 15 Vermont (23-10) vs. No. 2 Marquette (28-6) – Columbus, Ohio

I don’t think this is going to be an easy game for Marquette to win. Vermont is a well-coached team that has been a tough out in the NCAA tournament in its last three appearances. The Golden Eagles are red hot right now, though. They’ve won 19 of their last 21 games, including winning the Big East tournament. I expect Marquette to advance.

Winner: Marquette

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson gives direction during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Northern Kentucky (22-12) vs. No. 1 Houston (31-3) – Birmingham, Ala.

Northern Kentucky got hot in its conference tournament and clinched a tournament bid, but it’s considered one of the worst teams in the field. The Norse rank in the bottom six in both KenPom and ESPN BPI. Houston shouldn’t have many problems in this game.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Auburn (20-12) vs. No. 8 Iowa (19-13) – Birmingham, Ala.

I don’t trust Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament. He’s never made it past the first weekend. I also don’t think Iowa is good enough on the defensive end of the court. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom of the tournament field in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn is the more talented team and has the better head coach in Bruce Pearl.

Winner: Auburn

No. 12 Drake (27-7) vs. No. 5 Miami (25-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I can’t go the entire Round of 64 without picking an upset in a 12/5 matchup. It happens almost on a yearly basis. I think Miami is vulnerable after losing Norchad Omier in the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have also struggled on the defensive end of the court. Drake is a solid, tournament experienced team. I like the Bulldogs to get the upset.

Winner: Drake

No. 13 Kent State (28-6) vs. No. 4 Indiana (22-11) – Albany, N.Y.

This is another matchup that I like the upset. Indiana isn’t playing particularly well entering the tournament. The Hoosiers have won only four of their last eight games and struggled to score points during that stretch. Kent State has hung tough with a lot of quality teams this season and are strong defensively. I think the Golden Flashes find a way to win.

Winner: Kent State

No. 11 Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Iowa State (19-13) – Greensboro, N.C.

Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks, but it’s going to be tough for it to win this game. Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 62.8 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t shoot the ball well, especially from 3-point territory. I think the Cyclones also have the better head coach in T.J. Otzelberger.

Winner: Iowa State

No. 14 Kennesaw State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Xavier (25-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

By the time this game rolls around, Kennesaw State wouldn’t have played in 12 days. I think that’s going to be problematic, especially against Xavier. The Musketeers are a great offensive team and have played well in their last six games. The Owls are going to have a difficult time after so much time off.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State (22-13) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (25-9) – Des Moines, Iowa

I don’t feel good about this, but I’m going to pick Penn State to win this game. The Nittany Lions are red hot – winners of eight of their last 10 games – and came three points shy of winning the Big Ten tournament. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time defending Jalen Pickett, who’s averaged 19.6 points in Penn State’s last 10 games.

Winner: Penn State

No. 15 Colgate (26-8) vs. No. 2 Texas (26-8) – Des Moines, Iowa

I wouldn’t sleep on Colgate in this matchup. The Raiders have made each of the last four NCAA tournaments and rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. However, Texas has won six of its last eight games, including winning the Big 12 tournament. I have to go with the Longhorns.

Winner: Texas

Kansas Jayhawks guard MJ Rice (11) sets the play during the first half against the Texas Longhornsat T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard (22-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (27-7) – Des Moines, Iowa

I’m struggling to see a scenario where a lesser team like Howard knocks off the Big 12 regular season champion, which is an impressive feat considering it was the toughest conference this year. Kansas has too much talent to lose this game.

Winner: Kansas

No. 9 Illinois (20-12) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (20-13) – Des Moines, Iowa

This is a tough game to predict because both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. I’m going to give the advantage to Illinois. Arkansas is hobbling to the tournament – losing 11 of its last 19 games. The Fighting Illini are a well-coached team with plenty of athleticism. I think they’re in a slightly better position right now.

Winner: Illinois

No. 12 VCU (27-7) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I like the upset in this game. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I don’t trust come tournament time. I think VCU is going to want to speed the game up and that style of play is going to give the Gaels some trouble. The Rams also have one of the best defenses in the country – ranking No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: VCU

No. 13 Iona (27-7) vs. No. 4 UConn (25-8) – Albany, N.Y.

I’m kind of tempted to pick Iona solely because of Rick Pitino. He’s one of the best coaches in college basketball history and he has the Gaels playing well right now. However, I’m going to give the advantage to UConn because it’s the more talented team. I also think the Huskies might be the most underrated team in this tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU (21-12) – Denver

Jamie Dixon doesn’t have the best track record in the NCAA tournament, but I’m having a difficult time picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs are a talented team and are excellent defensively. Arizona State doesn’t shoot the ball well, which isn’t going to bode well against TCU. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Horned Frogs.

Winner: TCU

No. 14 Grand Canyon (24-11) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (28-5) – Denver

This feels like a bad matchup for Grand Canyon. There are only four teams in the tournament worse than the Antelopes in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the other side, Gonzaga is one of the hottest teams in the country right now and has averaged 90 points in its last 13 games. The Bulldogs also haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2008.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State (24-9) vs. No. 7 Northwestern (21-11) – Sacramento, Calif.

Northwestern is an excellent defensive team, but Boise State plays an interesting style of basketball. The Broncos shoot the ball well and rank in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think points are going to be hard to come by for the Wildcats, who average only 67.7 points per game and shoot 40.6% from the field.

Winner: Boise State

No. 15 UNC-Asheville (27-7) vs. No. 2 UCLA (29-5) – Sacramento, Calif.

UNC-Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games, but UCLA feels like an under seeded team. The Bruins rank No. 2 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI’s rankings. This feels like it’s going to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: UCLA

Creighton Bluejays guard Ryan Nembhard (2) drives to the basket against Villanova Wildcats guard Justin Moore (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 32

South Regional

No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama – Birmingham, Ala.

I think West Virginia has a chance to make a deep tournament run, but I doubt it’s going to be the team to knock off Alabama. The Mountaineers have been vulnerable defensively – allowing 71 points per game. That’s going to be a problem when going up against the Crimson Tide, who average 82.2 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Virginia – Orlando, Fla.

Both of these teams play a similar style of basketball. They’re going to want to slow the game down. The first team to 60 points might win, honestly. I’ll give the advantage to Virginia. The Cavaliers take care of the basketball very well and shoot the ball better than San Diego State. I also think the Aztecs will struggle to score on Virginia’s defense.

Winner: Virginia

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 3 Baylor – Denver

Despite being a No. 3 seed, I have reservations about Baylor being able to make a deep run. The Bears haven’t been playing well down the stretch – losers of four of their last six games. They’re also not a great defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball very well and does a better job of taking care of the basketball, too. I’ll take the minor upset.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 2 Arizona – Sacramento, Calif.

I don’t think Utah State has the length to contend with Arizona. The Aggies average only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game. I don’t think that’s going to be good enough to knock off the Wildcats, who average 39.4 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). Arizona is one of the better shooting teams in the tournament, too. I expect the Wildcats to advance.

Winner: Arizona

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 1 Purdue – Columbus, Ohio

This is going to be a tough matchup for Purdue. The Boilermakers struggle to take care of the basketball at times and Memphis is excellent at forcing turnovers – averaging 15.3 per game. However, the Tigers are going to have a difficult time defending Zach Edey, who averages 22.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. I’ll go with Purdue to squeak out a win.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 4 Tennessee – Orlando, Fla.

I don’t see Tennessee being able to make a deep run without Zeigler. The Volunteers aren’t the same team without him. This is going to be a tough matchup for them. Duke is playing very well right now and feels like a vastly under seeded team. The Blue Devils are also going to have the talent advantage. I like them to advance to the Sweet 16.

Winner: Duke

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Kansas State – Greensboro, N.C.

I’ve been burned by John Calipari and Kentucky too many times in recent years. So, I’m going to go with Kansas State to win this game. The Wildcats have the ability to match Kentucky’s rebounding production. I also think Kansas State will be able to expose the Wildcats’ defense, which ranks No. 71 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Marquette – Columbus, Ohio

Again, I think coaching matters. I don’t trust Shaka Smart, who has a record of 2-8 in the NCAA tournament since 2011 and is winless since 2013. With only two days to prepare, I’m going to give Izzo the advantage. I think Marquette will have a difficult time scoring on Michigan State’s defense, which allows just 67.4 points per game.

Winner: Michigan State

Drake Bulldogs guard D.J. Wilkins (0) reacts after making a three pointer against the Bradley Braves during the first half in the finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 1 Houston – Birmingham, Ala.

This feels like the furthest Auburn is going to get in the tournament. The Tigers struggle to shoot the ball and have lost nine of their last 13 games. That’s not what it’s going to take to knock off Houston, which ranks No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars are the more athletic team and should be able to take care of business.

Winner: Houston

No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 12 Drake – Albany, N.Y.

I’m going to keep rolling with Drake. The Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in this matchup in Tucker DeVries. Drake is also one of the best shooting teams in the tournament – averaging 47% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point territory. I think the Bulldogs have a good chance of getting past the first weekend.

Winner: Drake

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Xavier – Greensboro, N.C.

While Iowa State is an excellent defensive team, I’m not convinced it has the offense to defeat Xavier. The Musketeers average 81.4 points per game and shoot 49.4% from the floor (39.5% from 3-point territory). They’re also an excellent rebounding team. It feels like too much is going against the Cyclones in this matchup.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas – Des Moines, Iowa

Texas has the depth at guard, especially if Timmy Allen is healthy, to give Pickett and Penn State fits. This feels like the end of the road for the Nittany Lions. I doubt Penn State, which ranks No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency, is good enough on that end of the court to upset the Longhorns. Texas is the much better team and should advance.

Winner: Texas

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates after a play against the Chicago State Cougars in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 1 Kansas – Des Moines, Iowa

Illinois has what it takes to knock off Kansas. I’ve been burned by the Fighting Illini the last two years, though. They’ve been to inconsistent for me to pick the upset. The Jayhawks are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament – allowing only 67.9 points per game. Illinois is going to have a difficult time scoring points.

Winner: Kansas

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 4 UConn – Albany, N.Y.

UConn’s frontcourt is too talented and it has too much length. I have to pick the Huskies to win this game. If the shots aren’t falling for VCU, I doubt it has what it takes to win this game. UConn makes 46% of its shots and still averages 13.4 offensive rebounds per game. That’s very impressive. I don’t think the Rams will be able to overcome that.

Winner: UConn

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 3 Gonzaga – Denver

I’m not convinced that TCU can get past the first weekend without Eddie Lampkin, who recently entered the transfer portal. The Horned Frogs have also lost eight of their last 13 games. Jamie Dixon also hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the tournament since 2009. Gonzaga is the better team right now and I see no reason to pick against the Bulldogs.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 2 UCLA – Sacramento, Calif.

Even though I’m high on Boise State’s offensive ability, this is going to be a tough matchup. UCLA ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 60.3 points per game. I don’t think the Broncos are talented enough to overcome that. I expect the Bruins to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third-straight year.

Winner: UCLA

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Brandon Miller (24) celebrates after a made basket plus one during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Sweet 16

South Regional semifinals – Louisville, Ky.

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama

I actually think Virginia has what it takes to knock off Alabama. The Cavaliers are very good defensively and don’t make mistakes. If they can ugly this game up, the Crimson Tide could be in trouble. I don’t see that happening, though. Alabama is going to have the best player on the court in Brandon Miller. At the end of the day, I don’t think Virginia is good enough offensively to pull off the upset.

Winner: Alabama

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 2 Arizona

I don’t think Creighton is talented enough to knock off Arizona. I’m also struggling to see which part of this matchup the Bluejays have an advantage. The Wildcats are the better shooting and rebounding team, and are the more efficient offensively. Creighton is going to have to play its best game of the season in order to win. That’s a tall order when March rolls around.

Winner: Arizona

Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) reacts in the second half during the semifinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals – New York

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 1 Purdue

When these teams met in the regular season, Edey was dominant as Purdue rolled to a 19-point victory. I don’t expect a similar result this time around. Duke is a much better team right now and is playing very well defensively. If Mike Krzyzewski was still the head coach of the Blue Devils, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick the upset. I still think Edey is going to be problematic for Duke, though.

Winner: Purdue

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State

I don’t see Michigan State getting further than this point. The Spartans have to make shots at some point, which is something they haven’t done consistently this season. It’s going to be particularly difficult against Kansas State, which kept opponents to shooting just 41.9% from the field (30.1% from 3-point territory). I actually think the Wildcats have a favorable path to the Elite Eight.

Winner: Kansas State

Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr (5) celebrates after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 12 Drake vs. No. 1 Houston

This is a favorable matchup for Houston. While Drake shoots the ball well, it only ranks No. 98 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are going to have a difficult time scoring on the Cougars. Houston allows only 56.5 points per game and opponents shoot just 36.4% from the field (27.8% from 3-point territory). I expect the Cougars to get back to the Elite Eight for the third-straight year.

Winner: Houston

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas

Despite losing Chris Beard in the middle of the season, I’ve been impressed with Texas all season. The Longhorns are playing at a high level right now. It’s hard for me to pick against them. Sean Miller has become a head coach that I don’t trust come tournament time either. He hasn’t made it past the first weekend since 2017. I think Texas’ backcourt depth will be too much for Xavier.

Winner: Texas

UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) plays against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Kansas

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for UConn. Kansas allows its opponents to collect 34.8 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). The Huskies are going to be able to crash the boards against the Jayhawks. UConn has a deeper bench, with nine players averaging at least 13.2 minutes per game. I also question whether Bill Self is ready to coach again after his a health scare in the Big 12 tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA

I still don’t think Gonzaga has been challenged enough in conference play. Excluding Saint Mary’s, the Bulldogs haven’t played a team that ranked higher than No. 75 in KenPom’s rankings since Dec. 2. I think UCLA’s defense is up to the challenge of slowing down Gonzaga’s offense. I also think the Bruins will have the 2021 Final Four meeting between these teams in the back of their mind.

Winner: UCLA

Arizona Wildcats forward Azuolas Tubelis (10) looks to shoot against UCLA Bruins forward Kenneth Nwuba (14) during the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Elite Eight

South Regional final – Louisville, Ky.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Alabama

I’m not as high on Alabama as everyone else. The Crimson Tide don’t shoot the ball as well as people think – averaging just 44.6% from the field and 33.8% from 3-point territory. I think Arizona matches up very well with Alabama. The Wildcats have the length and superior rebounding ability to upset the Crimson Tide. I also question if Alabama has enough scoring depth, outside of Miller, to win it all. Arizona has had four different players score at least 24 points in a game. That usually translates well in the tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter gestures to his team during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final – New York

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Purdue

I have a feeling that this regional final is going to look much differently in a few weeks. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding almost every team in this region. However, if these teams meet in the Elite Eight, I expect Purdue to emerge victorious. I don’t think Kansas State is good enough in the paint to limit Edey’s production. If you can’t slow down Edey, you’re going to have a difficult time defeating the Boilermakers. I’m not confident in this pick at all, but I like Purdue to get to the Final Four.

Winner: Purdue

Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser (0) reacts after a three point basket during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Houston

I understand why people are hesitant to pick Houston after Marcus Sasser’s injury. However, the Cougars have a favorable path to get to this point, which will give Sasser time to get healthy. Even if he’s not 100%, I think Houston still has plenty of athleticism, depth, and defensive expertise to get back to the Final Four. The Cougars have had four different players score at least 20 points in a game. I also doubt that Texas can get to the Final Four with an interim head coach.

Winner: Houston

Connecticut Huskies guard R.J. Cole (1) looks to pass during the second half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 2 UCLA

If Jaylen Clark was healthy, I’d pick UCLA to win. I think the Bruins will have a difficult time without him, though. KenPom has UConn ranked No. 4, so it’s a vastly under seeded team in this tournament. That and Clark’s injury are why I like the Huskies to win this game. UConn ranks in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies also have the ability to make shots and get to the free throw line, which is going to be valuable against UCLA.

Winner: UConn

Final Four – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Purdue

I question if Purdue has enough scoring depth, outside of Edey, in order to win the national championship. Edey has led the Boilermakers in scoring in 24 of their 34 games. I also think Purdue’s inexperienced backcourt will be a problem at some point in the tournament. That’s why I’m not convinced that the Boilermakers are going to get to this point. I’m going to give the advantage to Arizona. The Wildcats have the length to match up with Edey in the paint. They also have an experienced roster, with their top six leading scorers being upperclassmen.

Winner: Arizona

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Houston

I actually wouldn’t rule out UConn winning this game. The Huskies are a much more athletic team than people think, and they have the ability to score. UConn has also fared well in the last 20 years when the Final Four has been in Texas. With this all but being a home game for Houston, I’m going to give the advantage to the Cougars. I think they’re a more complete team than UConn. Houston ranks in the top 12 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies are going to have a difficult time making shots against the Cougars’ stout defense.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

2023 National Championship – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Houston

I thought Arizona had what it takes to win the national championship last year. The problem was that the Wildcats ran into a defensive buzz saw in Houston in the Sweet 16. I see the same thing happening in this matchup. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country, maybe even the best. They also do a lot of things very well that usually translate to wins in March. Houston won the turnover margin by a ratio of 4.6 and collected an average of 12.8 offensive rebounds per game – ranking in the top 15 in the country in both categories.

If Sasser is healthy, which I’m expecting him to be, I don’t see a team that’s going to be able to slow down the Cougars. There’s a reason why they’re No. 1 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI rankings. Houston just has too much size, athleticism, and scoring depth. I think the Cougars can get adequate production from Jarace Walker, J’Wan Roberts, Jamal Shead, or Truman Mark even if Sasser isn’t 100% healthy.

Winner: Houston

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Price’s 2023 National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

Movie quote of the day:

“Would you rather get one shot in the head or five in the chest and bleed to death?”

– Billy Beane, “Moneyball” (2011)

Fans walk outside the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y. (AP photo).

I’ve had this post scheduled for almost a year. Ever since I typed up my 2022 Pro Football Hall of Fame ballot, to be exact, so that I wouldn’t forget. The inspiration for this came from my issues with the baseball Hall of Fame voting process and the tendencies from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, which determines which eligible players get in the Hall of Fame every year.

What I’m going to do in this post is pretend that I’m one of the members of the BBWAA and cast my vote for which players on the 2023 ballot that I think should be in the Hall of Fame. How does the voting process work? Every year, the members of the BBWAA are given ballots and are allowed to vote for up to 10 players. Here’s an example from last year:

I know baseball is top of mind for the sports world this morning, so … here's my 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. Please respect my decision. More here: https://t.co/lpWiV4YVsY pic.twitter.com/iecszIFiue

— Marc Lancaster (@MarcLancaster) January 24, 2022

Remember, a player has to receive at least 75% of the votes cast in order to be inducted to the Hall of Fame. We’ve only had three players inducted to the Hall of Fame since 2020. My guess is that at least one player is going to receive enough votes to get in this year, but I doubt the number is going to exceed three.

My readers ought to know that I don’t believe that steroid users should be in the Hall of Fame. So, no, I won’t be voting for players like Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodríguez, Manny Ramírez, and Andy Pettitte. Each of those players have been linked to steroids in their careers. Even though he wasn’t a steroid user, another player that I won’t be voting for is Carlos Beltrán. It’s been reported that he was the alleged mastermind behind the Houston Astros sign stealing scandal. I feel like I have to hold him accountable for cheating just like steroid users.

I wanted to use up all 10 votes, but the ballot isn’t that strong enough after a certain amount of players, and once you eliminate the steroid users and Beltrán. Keep in mind, this isn’t a prediction of what I think the ballot will look like, these are just the players I’d vote for if I had a vote.

Price’s ballot:

Scott Rolen played in the majors for 17 seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, and Cincinnati Reds. Mandatory credit: G. N. Lowrance/Getty Images

3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Year on ballot: Sixth
2022 percent of the vote: 63.2% (+10.3% from 2021)
Stats: .281 batting average, 2,077 hits, 316 home runs, 1,287 RBIs
Accolades: World Series champion, 7x All-Star, 8x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger

Rolen played at the same time as other great corner infielders who’ve been inducted into the Hall of Fame in recent years, like Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones, and Jim Thome. So, it makes sense why Rolen has been overlooked throughout the process. His offensive production is solid, but being an eight-time Gold Glove winner at the “hot corner” is an even more impressive feat. He’s also gained a lot of momentum from voters each of the last two years – going from 35.3% in 2020 to 63.2% last year. This feels like the year Rolen will hear his name called.

Todd Helton spent 17 seasons in the majors with the Colorado Rockies. Mandatory credit: Chris Humphreys/USA TODAY Sports

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Year on ballot: Fifth
2022 percent of the vote: 52% (+7.1% from 2021)
Stats: .316 batting average, 2,519 hits, 369 home runs, 1,406 RBIs
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger

I have a lot of respect for players who spend their entire careers with one team Helton is considered to be “Mr. Rocky” and was the first face of the Colorado organization. His offensive production isn’t what you typically expect from a corner infielder, but I don’t think you can tell the story of baseball without him. Helton has an uphill battle to get to the 75% threshold, though. Since 2010, only one player has received more than a 23% increase in votes in one year (Barry Larkin in 2012). If Helton doesn’t get in this year, it’ll likely be next year.

Billy Wagner played in the majors for 15 seasons with the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Atlanta Braves. Mandatory credit: Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle

RP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Year on ballot: Eighth
2022 percent of the vote: 51% (+4.6% from 2021)
Stats: 2.31 ERA, 1,196 strikeouts, 422 saves
Accolades: 7x All-Star

I’m surprised that Wagner has had to wait this long. Historically, Hall of Fame voters haven’t been kind to relief pitchers. Wagner should be in the Hall of Fame, though. He ranks No. 6 in baseball history in career saves and he posted an ERA below 2.00 five times in his career. Wagner also has more strikeouts than Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, who’ve both been inducted to the Hall of Fame in the last five years. I’m not convinced that he’ll receive enough votes this year, but I’m sure he’ll get in before his time on the ballot is up.

Andruw Jones played in the majors for 17 seasons with the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, and New York Yankees. Mandatory credit: Al Tielemans/Sports Illustrated

OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Year on ballot: Sixth
2022 percent of the vote: 41.4% (+7.5% from 2021)
Stats: .254 batting average, 434 home runs, 1,289 RBIs
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger

I originally scoffed at the idea of Jones being in the Hall of Fame. I remember him being a good but not a great player. My opinion changed after I saw his numbers. Jones ranks in the top 50 in baseball history career home runs. I understand that his batting average and RBIs are low, but he’s also one of 15 players in baseball history to win 10 Gold Glove awards. I think his track record as a defender should get him more consideration for the Hall of Fame. Depending on how many votes he gets these next couple years, Jones might have a chance to get in one day.

Jeff Kent played in the majors for 17 seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, and Los Angeles Dodgers. Mandatory credit: Getty Images

2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Year on ballot: 10th
2022 percent of the vote: 32.7% (+0.3% from 2021)
Stats: .290 batting average, 2,461 hits, 377 home runs, 1,518 RBIs
Accolades: NL MVP, 5x All-Star, 4x Silver Slugger

There have been 20 second basemen to be inducted to the Hall of Fame and Kent’s numbers stack up with them. Among those 20 players, Kent would rank No. 10 in batting average, No. 11 in hits, No. 1 in home runs, and No. 3 in RBIs. He also won an MVP and appeared in five All-Star games. However, he’s likely not going to get in the Hall of Fame because of his reputation as a poor defender. Kent also hasn’t made much progress in his number of votes – improving only 17.5% in his nine years on the ballot. I’m a sucker for a player in his final year on the ballot, though.

Omar Vizquel played in the majors for 24 seasons with the Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays. Mandatory credit: Getty Images

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Year on ballot: Sixth
2022 percent of the vote: 23.9% (-25.2% from 2021)
Stats: .272 batting average, 2,877 hits, 80 home runs, 951 RBIs
Accolades: 3x All-Star, 11x Gold Glove

Vizquel wasn’t much of an offensive presence in his career, but he should still be considered one of the best shortstops to play the game. He was an excellent defender – winning 11 Gold Glove awards and finishing tied for first in baseball history in field percentage. Vizquel has a lot going against him, though. First, his offensive numbers aren’t that impressive when you consider he played 24 seasons. He’s also had his share of off-the field issues in recent years. Vizquel’s number of votes are also trending in the wrong direction.

Jimmy Rollins played 17 seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago White Sox. Mandatory credit: Howard Smith/USA TODAY Sports

SS Jimmy Rollins (2000-16)
Year on ballot: Second
2022 percent of the vote: 9.4%
Stats: .264 batting average, 2,455 hits, 231 home runs, 936 RBIs, 470 stolen bases
Accolades: World Series champion, NL MVP, 3x All-Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger

I’m still surprised that Rollins didn’t receive more votes in his first time on the ballot last year. I grew up watching him play and there weren’t many shortstops better than him during his time in the majors. I think his numbers and accolades back that up. Rollins is the only shortstop in baseball history to collect over 2,000 hits, 200 home runs, and 400 stolen bases. He also helped Philadelphia win its first World Series in almost 30 years. I’ll be very surprised if Rollins eclipses 75% of the vote this year, but I expect him to get a lot more consideration from the voters. 

Torii Hunter played 19 seasons in the majors with the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, and Detroit Tigers. Mandatory credit: Brian Bahr/Getty Images

OF Torii Hunter (1997-2015)
Year on ballot: Third
2022 percent of the vote: 5.3% (-4.2% from 2021)
Stats: .277 batting average, 2,452 hits, 353 home runs, 1,391 RBIs
Accolades: 5x All-Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger

Hunter barely eclipsed 5% of the vote last year in order to remain on the ballot. I think he’s deserving of more consideration. Center field is one of the toughest positions to play and Hunter was a Gold Glove award winner at the position multiple times. Only four outfielders in baseball history have won more Gold Glove awards than Hunter. He also wasn’t a slouch at the plate. Entering his third year on the ballot, I anticipate Hunter to receive more votes than he did last year. If he doesn’t, he’ll need the veterans committee to get him to Cooperstown. 

Francisco Rodríguez played in the majors for 16 seasons with the Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, and Detroit Tigers. Mandatory credit: Robert Leiter/Getty Images)

RP Francisco Rodríguez (2002-17)
Year on ballot: First
Stats: 2.86 ERA, 1,142 strikeouts, 437 saves
Accolades: World Series champion, 6x All-Star, 3x AL saves leader, MLB single-season saves record

Of the players making their first appearance on the ballot this year, I think Rodríguez has the best chance of getting 75% of the vote. He recorded over 1,000 strikeouts and he ranks in the top five in baseball history in career saves. Rodríguez also holds the record for saves in a single season (62). I doubt Rodríguez will get in, though, because of the way the voters have treated relief pitchers. Six of the eight relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame waited an average of eight years, and one of those six had to be voted in through the veterans committee. 

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2017 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Say ‘what’ again!”

– Jules Winnfield, “Pulp Fiction” (1994)

Today is the real start of one of the most wonderful times of the year – March Madness. I’m not sure I can speak for everyone, but I love these next three weeks almost as much as I love football season. Even though I feel fairly confident in my picks now, I know at some point today I’m going to feel the need to torch my bracket. Keep in mind, a lot of these picks have come down to my own bias and hunches, almost very little research was put into it.

Villanova Wildcats guard Josh Hart (3) celebrates with guard Jalen Brunson (1) and forward Kris Jenkins (2) during the second half of the Big East Conference Tournament.

East regional

Round of 64:

No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s (20-15) vs. No. 1 Villanova (31-3) – Buffalo, N.Y.

A 16 seed has never beat a one seed and I don’t see that happening in this matchup. Villanova is too talented. I expect the Wildcats to cruise into the Round of 32.

Winner: Villanova

No. 9 Virginia Tech (22-10) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (25-9) – Buffalo, N.Y.

This is a tough game to pick. Virginia Tech is well coached and can score points. However, Wisconsin plays very good defense and is heavily under seeded. The Badgers just played for the Big Ten championship before losing to a hot Michigan team. I’m still trying to figure out why Wisconsin is an eight seed.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 12 UNC-Wilmington (29-5) vs. No. 5 Virginia (22-10) – Orlando, Fla.

Virginia plays some of the best defense in the country, but the Cavaliers struggle to score and have been hit and miss at points this season – and are coming in to March Madness with a 5-5 record in their last 10 games. It’s the opposite for UNC-Wilmington – one of the hottest teams in the country right now.

Winner: UNC-Wilmington

No. 13 East Tennessee State (27-7) vs. No. 4 Florida (24-8) – Orlando, Fla.

Both of these teams are about the same. Each has the ability to score and play pretty good defense. Las Vegas likes Florida, but the Gators have been struggling recently – losers of three of their last four. I’m going to go with the upset.

Prediction: East Tennessee State

No. 11 USC (25-9) vs. No. 6 SMU (30-4) – Tulsa, Okla.

SMU is probably the most dangerous team in the tournament outside the top seeds. The Mustangs are loaded with talent and hot – they have a record of 26-1 since Dec. 2. I think that SMU is going to go on a run this tournament.

Winner: SMU

No. 14 New Mexico State (28-5) vs. No. 3 Baylor (25-7) – Tulsa, Okla.

I’m not sold on Baylor. The Bears struggle to score and haven’t played well in recent weeks – 5-6 in their last 11 games. This game will be a dog fight for Baylor. New Mexico State is a good team and certainly can win, but I think Baylor’s athleticism helps lift the Bears and they escape the Round of 64.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Marquette (19-12) vs. No. 7 South Carolina (22-10) – Greenville, S.C.

South Carolina plays really good defense, I love Frank Martin as a head coach, and it’ll essentially be a home game for the Gamecocks. However, you have to be able to make baskets to move on in the tournament and South Carolina can’t do that – averaging 72.1 points per game which is No. 203 in the country. Plus, the Gamecocks have lost six of their last nine games. I think Marquette’s offense will be the difference maker and the Golden Eagles will move on.

Winner: Marquette

No. 15 Troy (22-14) vs. No. 2 Duke (27-8) – Greenville, S.C.

Duke is too hot right now. The Blue Devils should handle the Trojans with ease.

Winner: Duke

Southern Methodist Mustangs forward Semi Ojeleye (33) drives to the basket against the Connecticut Huskies.

Round of 32

No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Villanova – Buffalo, N.Y.

A lot of people are picking Wisconsin to upset Villanova in this game. I considered it at first, but at the end of the day, Wisconsin struggles to score. I think Villanova’s athleticism will be too much for Wisconsin’s stout defense. I think it’ll be a close game, but I think the Wildcats are able to pull away late.

Winner: Villanova

No. 13 East Tennessee State vs. No. 12 UNC-Wilmington – Orlando, Fla.

I want reiterate, UNC-Wilmington is a really good team. The Seahawks have won 10 of their last 11 games and average 85 points per game – No. 10 in the country. I think UNC-Wilmington will carry its momentum from the win over Virginia to clinch a spot in the Sweet 16.

Winner: UNC-Wilmington

No. 6 SMU vs. No. 3 Baylor – Tulsa, Okla.

Like I said above, SMU is probably the most dangerous team that is a five seed or lower. I think the Mustangs’ athleticism matches up well with Baylor.

Prediction: SMU

No. 10 Marquette vs. No. 2 Duke – Greenville, S.C.

Marquette shoots well and can score but they’re not nearly as good as Duke. I like the Blue Devils to move on.

Winner: Duke

Duke Blue Devils mascot entertains the fans against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the ACC Conference Tournament at Barclays Center.

Regional semifinals – New York

No. 12 UNC-Wilmington vs. No. 1 Villanova

I think this is where UNC-Wilmington’s run will come to an end. The Seahawks are good but Villanova is the superior team. The Wildcats have more athletes, better coaching, and more experience.

Winner: Villanova

No. 6 SMU vs. No. 2 Duke

If these teams meet, I think it could be one of the better games of the tournament. Both teams are extremely talented, but Duke is playing on another level right now.

Winner: Duke

Regional final – New York

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 1 Villanova

I like Villanova, but I think the Wildcats drew a tough draw with Duke in their bracket. Duke is probably the most talented team in the tournament and the Blue Devils are playing very well right now. Plus, defending national champions haven’t made the Final Four the next year since Florida did it in 2007 – bad news for Villanova.

Winner: Duke

Gonzaga celebrates after defeating the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament.

West regional

Round of 64

No. 16 South Dakota State (18-16) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (32-1) – Salt Lake City

Gonzaga is better than people think. This should be an easy win for the Zags.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 9 Vanderbilt (19-15) vs. No. 8 Northwestern (23-11) – Salt Lake City

Northwestern has been a great story and I’m happy for the Wildcats that they finally got a NCAA tournament bid, but I feel like they might just be happy to be a part of the Big Dance instead of looking to win. Vanderbilt is playing very well right now – winners of nine of its last 11 games – and is one of the best in the country at shooting three-pointers.

Winner: Vanderbilt

No. 12 Princeton (23-6) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame (25-9) – Buffalo, N.Y.

I really thought about taking Princeton because Ivy League teams always play well in the tournament. However, after playing in the inaugural Ivy League tournament last week, I’m looking forward to see if that trend continues. Either way, I still give Notre Dame the edge.

Winner: Notre Dame

No. 13 Bucknell (26-8) vs. No. 4 West Virginia (26-8) – Buffalo, N.Y.

Out of loyalty as a lifelong fan and alum, I have to take West Virginia. WVU’s full-court press is hard to prepare for, and I think Bucknell will have its struggles against it. Plus, after a disappointing early exit last year, I think Bob Huggins will his team ready to play this year.

Winner: West Virginia

No. 11 Xavier (21-13) vs. No. 6 Maryland (24-8) – Orlando, Fla.

Maryland has a lot of talent but I don’t think the Terrapins are that great, but Xavier has lost seven of its last 10 games – and two of those wins were against a nine-win DePaul team.

Winner: Maryland

No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast (26-7) vs. No. 3 Florida State (25-8) – Orlando, Fla.

A 14 seed has beat a three seed each of the last four years and I think that trend continues this year. Florida State is the weakest three seed in this tournament. The Seminoles have plenty of size but I never bought into them this year. Remember two years ago when Florida Gulf Coast made the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed? The Eagles are dangerous and I’m going with the upset.

Winner: Florida Gulf Coast

No. 10 VCU (26-8) vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s (28-4) – Salt Lake City

I have never bought into Saint Mary’s. The Gaels have only made it past the Round of 64 twice in the program’s history. No way I’m picking them to beat a team like VCU.

Winner: VCU

No. 15 North Dakota (22-9) vs. No. 2 Arizona (30-4) – Salt Lake City

Arizona is loaded with talent and I like Sean Miller as a coach too much.

Winner: Arizona

Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Matt Farrell (5) reacts after hitting a three point shot against the Florida State Seminoles during the ACC Conference Tournament.

Round of 32

No. 9 Vanderbilt vs. No. 1 Gonzaga – Salt Lake City

Even though Vanderbilt is hot, Gonzaga is too good of a team. The Zags are really good defensively – giving up just 61.2 points per game, which ranks No. 8 in the country – and that should counter Vanderbilt’s sharp shooting.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 West Virginia – Buffalo, N.Y.

Notre Dame is well coached, they’re smart, and they take care of the ball – that usually translates into a win against the Mountaineers. However, West Virginia’s full-court press will be really difficult to prepare for in just two days, and Las Vegas and Nate Silver both really like WVU to advance to the Sweet 16. Against my better judgement, I’m going with my Mountaineers.

Winner: West Virginia

No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 6 Maryland – Orlando, Fla.

Teams that pull off a massive upset in the Round of 64 very rarely win the next game and advance to the next weekend. It’s difficult for these mid-majors to carry the momentum over to the next game. Because of that, I’m going with Maryland to make the Sweet 16.

Winner: Maryland

No. 10 VCU vs. No. 2 Arizona – Salt Lake City

Even though I picked VCU to beat Saint Mary’s the Round of 64, I think the Rams are just as overrated of a program as the Gaels. I have to go with Arizona.

Winner: Arizona

Arizona Wildcats guard Allonzo Trier (35) moves the ball up the court during a Pac-12 Conference Tournament.

Regional semifinals – San Jose, Calif.

No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

I think Gonzaga is a really good team and much better than people think. I think given almost a week to prepare for West Virginia’s style of play will really benefit the Zags. I think Gonzaga handles WVU’s full-court press well enough to move on to the Elite Eight.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 2 Arizona

Almost every year in March Madness there’s a team that falls ass backward into the Sweet 16, only to get trounced by one of the better teams in the tournament. I think that team this year is Maryland. There’s no way I’m picking Arizona to lose to the Terrapins.

Winner: Arizona

Regional final – San Jose, Calif.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Gonzaga

Sean Miller is a really good coach, but he’s never made it to the Final Four. He has to get over that hump eventually, right? I think that this is his year to do it. Arizona is super talented and playing well – winners of 24 of its last 26 games, including the Pac-12 tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Kansas Jayhawks guard Frank Mason III (0) reacts after the game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena.

Midwest regional

Round of 64

No. 16 UC-Davis (23-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (28-4) – Tulsa, Okla.

Kansas, all day.

Winner: Kansas

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Miami (21-11) – Tulsa, Okla.

This has been one of the tougher games to pick in the Round of 64. I think both teams are about even and you can never count out Tom Izzo in March Madness. However, the Spartans have disappointed this season after being ranked No. 12 in the preseason. I find it difficult to pick a team that has underperformed all year to win in the most important time of the year.

Winner: Miami

No. 12 Nevada (28-6) vs. No. 5 Iowa State (23-10) – Milwaukee

Nevada will be a tough team to beat, but I have to go with Iowa State – the team that just won the Big 12 tournament. I can’t bring myself to pick against the Cyclones in the Round of 64 because they’re playing very well right now.

Winner: Iowa State

No. 13 Vermont (29-5) vs. No. 4 Purdue (25-7) – Milwaukee

At first, I was all over Vermont to win this game. The Catamounts have won 21 straight games and play stifling defense. Although the more research I did on Purdue, the more I like the Boilermakers. They have the size advantage over Vermont and shoot the ball very well.

Winner: Purdue

No. 11 Rhode Island (24-9) vs. No. 6 Creighton (25-9) – Sacramento, Calif.

I never bought into Creighton when Doug McDermott played there so I’m still not going to buy into the Bluejays now without him. Rhode Island is on a roll right now. The Rams have won 15 of its last 17 games, including the Atlantic 10 tournament. I finally like an 11 seed to get an upset in the Round of 64.

Winner: Rhode Island

No. 14 Iona (22-12) vs. No. 3 Oregon (29-5) – Sacramento, Calif.

Despite losing its best rim protector, I still like Oregon to go on a run this tournament. The Ducks have a talented roster and another rim protector almost just as good as the starter.

Winner: Oregon

No. 10 Oklahoma State (20-12) vs. No. 7 Michigan (24-11) – Indianapolis

It’s hard to pick against Michigan right now. The Wolverines are very efficient offensively and they just put together a great run to win the Big Ten tournament. I think Brad Underwood is another year or two from putting Oklahoma State back on the map.

Winner: Michigan

No. 15 Jacksonville State (20-14) vs. No. 2 Louisville (24-8) – Indianapolis

I’m not sure just how good Louisville is, but I can’t pick against Rick Pitino in this game.

Winner: Louisville

Michigan Wolverines forward D.J. Wilson (5) celebrates in the closing seconds of the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers during the Big Ten Conference Tournament championship game.

Round of 32

No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Kansas – Tulsa, Okla.

Miami plays tough defense, but I have to go with Kansas to win this game. The Jayhawks shoot the ball really well and I think Miami will struggle to keep up.

Winner: Kansas

No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 4 Purdue – Milwaukee

Iowa State is never a team that I can buy into. The Cyclones always seem to choke in the tournament – the program has only made it past the Sweet 16 twice in its history. They can shoot well but they struggle with teams that have size – which favors Purdue.

Winner: Purdue

No. 11 Rhode Island vs. No. 3 Oregon – Sacramento, Calif.

Rhode Island will be a tough team for Oregon to beat, but I think the Ducks just barely get it done. I don’t think the Rams can match up with Oregon’s athleticism, and I like the Ducks to move on to the second weekend.

Winner: Oregon

No. 7 Michigan vs. No 2. Louisville – Indianapolis

John Beilein is a really good tournament coach. His teams have made it past the first weekend four times in their last eight tournament appearances. He has Michigan on a roll right now, and I think Louisville will be the first of the top teams to go home.

Winner: Michigan

Purdue Boilermakers forward Caleb Swanigan (50) reacts to a play during a game against the Michigan State Spartans.

Regional semifinals – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Kansas

I like Kansas, but I’m not sure the Jayhawks can make a Final Four run. They lack size and depth, and are terrible at shooting free throws. I think Purdue matches up very well with Kansas. I expect Caleb Swanigan’s size and ability to be a matchup nightmare for Kansas. I think Purdue pulls off the upset and moves on to the Elite Eight.

Winner: Purdue

No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oregon

Michigan’s run will end at some point and I think it’ll be against Oregon. The Ducks have more talent and been the more consistent team this season.

Winner: Oregon

Regional final – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 3 Oregon

Every time Oregon has been ranked a three seed or higher the Ducks have advanced to the Elite Eight, but not the Final Four. I’m not very confident in it, but I think that trend ends this year. This Midwest regional is wide open, and Oregon is a very underrated team with plenty of talent and depth.

Winner: Oregon

North Carolina Tar Heels guard Nate Britt (0) dribbles the ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers.

South regional

No. 16 Texas Southern (23-11) vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) – Greenville, S.C.

I don’t see North Carolina losing this game unless the Tar Heels don’t show up or Roy Williams dies.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Seton Hall (21-11) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (25-9) – Greenville, S.C.

Seton Hall has size and rebounds very well. However, Arkansas shoots the ball well, plays good defense, and Mike Anderson is a good coach.

Winner: Arkansas

No. 12 Middle Tennessee (30-4) vs. No. 5 Minnesota (24-9) – Milwaukee

Middle Tennessee is probably the best team that is a 10 seed or lower. The Blue Raiders are no joke. They pulled off the upset of the tournament last year by knocking off Michigan State in the Round of 64, and they return a lot of players from that team. I still don’t understand how Minnesota got a five seed. I smell an upset brewing in this game.

Winner: Middle Tennessee

No. 13 Winthrop (26-6) vs. No. 4 Butler (23-8) – Milwaukee

Butler has been fake since losing Brad Stevens as its head coach back in 2013. However, I’m giving the Bulldogs the edge in this game.

Winner: Butler

No. 11 Kansas State (21-13) vs. No. 6 Cincinnati (29-5) – Sacramento, Calif.

I didn’t think Kansas State would make it past Wake Forest in the First Four, but the Wildcats managed to get the win. They’re playing well right now and I think they’ll give Cincinnati problems.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 14 Kent State (22-13) vs. No. 3 UCLA (29-4) – Sacramento, Calif.

Kent State is hot but I don’t think the Golden Flashes will be able to keep up with UCLA on the scoreboard. The Bruins shoot the ball too well and have the best offense in the country.

Winner: UCLA

No. 10 Wichita State (30-4) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) – Indianapolis

Wichita State won 30 games and got a 10 seed? I would imagine Gregg Marshall will have his team pissed off and ready to play this game.

Winner: Wichita State

No. 15 Northern Kentucky (24-10) vs. No. 2 Kentucky (29-5) – Indianapolis

This might be the closest 2/15 matchup. Northern Kentucky is no slouch. The Norse have won 12 of their last 14 games. However, I think Kentucky is too talented to lose this game. I expect the Wildcats to pull away in the second half.

Winner: Kentucky

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders guard Aldonis Foote (45) controls the ball against the Marshall Thundering Herd.

Round of 32

No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 1 North Carolina – Greenville, S.C.

Arkansas is a decent team but the Razorbacks aren’t on North Carolina’s level.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 4 Butler – Milwaukee

Middle Tennessee is a very good team, folks. I have them moving on to the Sweet 16 – the second 12 seed to do so in my bracket.

Winner: Middle Tennessee

No. 11 Kansas State vs. No. 3 UCLA – Sacramento, Calif.

Even though Kansas State is playing well, I don’t the Wildcats can shoot the ball well enough in order to keep up with UCLA.

Winner: UCLA

No. 10 Wichita State vs. No. 2 Kentucky – Indianapolis

This was a tough game to pick. I think Wichita State will want vengeance for that NCAA tournament game three years ago when Kentucky upset the undefeated Shockers in the Round of 32. However, I don’t think Wichita State has the athletes to keep up with Kentucky. I think the Wildcats pull off a narrow victory to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16.

Winner: Kentucky

Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari talks with guard Malik Monk (5) during the SEC Conference Tournament.

Regional semifinals – Memphis, Tenn.

No. 12 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Even though I like Middle Tennessee, the Blue Raiders don’t have enough horses to win this game. North Carolina’s talent and depth will be too much for Middle Tennessee.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 2 Kentucky

This should be a high-scoring affair. For as good as UCLA is offensively, you have to play good defense to win championships, and UCLA struggles with playing defense. I think Kentucky will win this game in a close one.

Winner: Kentucky

Regional final – Memphis, Tenn.

No. 2. Kentucky vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Despite its loss to Duke in the ACC championship, North Carolina was still playing like the best team in the country. Kentucky is really hot, but I like the Tar Heels to emerge as the champion in this regional.

Winner: North Carolina

Final Four – Phoenix

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 2 Arizona

These teams are about even talent-wise and both are playing extremely well. With the game in Phoenix, it’ll essentially be a home game for the Wildcats. The Arizona-heavy crowd should help lift the Wildcats to win a very close game, and move on to its first national championship appearance since 2001.

Winner: Arizona

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 1 North Carolina

I think this is where Oregon’s run ends. Losing a starting rim protector will finally be too much for the Ducks. North Carolina’s size and talent will be too much for Oregon. I think the Tar Heels win comfortably and advance to their second consecutive national championship.

Winner: North Carolina

National Championship – Phoenix

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 North Carolina

This should be a very high-scoring national championship. Even though the crowd should be very Arizona friendly, I think it’s North Carolina that’ll emerge victorious. The Tar Heels have looked like a team on a mission the last month of the regular season – and didn’t play that badly in the loss to Duke in the ACC tournament. I think North Carolina makes up for last year’s heartbreaking national championship loss, and cuts down the nets April 3.

Winner: North Carolina

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53