Tag NCAA Tournament

2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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Don’t rule out Oregon State, Washington State joining the Big 12 and changing the college football landscape forever

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“I hate her. In fact, the day you broke up with her I marked that down on my calendar as a day of rejoicement. I’m going to celebrate it with a cake with her face on it, but instead of eating it, we smash it.”

– Stainer, “She’s Out of My League” (2010)

Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports


I was ready to believe that the conference realignment buzz was slowing down. I was under the impression that all that was left to determine was which school The American would add to replace SMU and the fate of Oregon State and Washington State.

However, the conference realignment buzz has cranked back up again, specifically in regards to Oregon State and Washington State. 

A few weeks ago, those two schools filed a legal complaint against the Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, seeking a temporary restraining order to protect the future of the conference. The basis for this decision comes because Oregon State and Washington State believe that the 10 members that are leaving won’t have the conference’s best interest at heart, even going so far as to believe that those members will vote to dissolve the Pac-12. Basically, Oregon State and Washington State want full control of the conference’s future. A hearing on the matter is slated for Nov. 14. 

This puts those two schools in a precarious situation. As it stands, the Pac-12 champion is going to have a guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff next year. The new format is going to have six guaranteed spots for conference champions (each of the Power 5 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion) and six wild cards. It’s important to know that the 6+6 format isn’t set after next season, and the the CFP management committee has yet to determine if the format will stay the same or change after the Pac-12 lost 10 of its members back in the summer. In fact, the committee punted on making a decision the issue recently. 

Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jaden Robinson (4) breaks up a pass intended for Washington State Cougars wide receiver Josh Kelly (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports


Oregon State and Washington State have a clear path to the CFP unless the format changes, even though they’re the only remaining members in the Pac-12. That will eventually change because the NCAA has a requirement that an FBS conference needs at least eight members, but there’s a two-year grace period. That means ESPN might have to pay about $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State, and potentially to schools like Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, etc. 

Things could obviously change, though. The committee could eventually determine that the Pac-12 will lose its guaranteed spot in the CFP. The problem with that is that there’s no precedent for it. Remember, the old Big East/The American lost its guaranteed spot only because the BCS was scrapped and the CFP was formed, and the powers that be determined there wouldn’t be guaranteed spots in the new postseason format.

There’s also no technical explanation of the differences between the Power 5 and Group of 5 entities, which is a big problem for the committee. It’s likely not going to be able to explain it without referencing the colloquial expression “I know it when I see it” from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964.

The main difference between the different levels of competition in the NCAA (FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III) is mostly the number of scholarships. However, Power 5 and Group of 5 schools have the same number of football scholarships (85). That’s why those schools are considered to be on the same level and are told that they’re competing for the same national championship, even though we all know that’s not true. 

The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is displayed during Big Ten media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports


This is a significant development. I don’t expect ESPN to willingly pay $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State if the CFP format doesn’t change, and especially if the Pac-12 ever merges with the Mountain West and/or The American.

Oregon State and Washington State are in a pretty strong position, which is why I expect them to use it as leverage for ESPN to pull strings to get them in a Power 5 conference. The most like destination is the Big 12. Oregon State and Washington State are much better fits in that conference than the ACC, Big Ten, or the SEC. The two schools would also be quality additions to the Big 12. Oregon State has a solid football program right now and its baseball team has made it to Omaha, Neb., for the College World Series six times since 2005. Washington State has had a respectable football program for the last 30 years, and has its cool College Gameday tradition.

I think it’s more likely than not that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Big 12. It’ll be much cheaper for ESPN to broadcast their games in the conference at a reduced share (roughly $20 million per school) than it would be to give them a share of the CFP revenue. It would also benefit Oregon State and Washington State in the long-term future to join the Big 12, instead of potentially joining the American or Mountain West.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN waited for the committee to come to a decision on the format for the expanded CFP. If the Pac-12 loses its guaranteed spot, it’ll cost ESPN even less money to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State games in either the Mountain West or The American. That could be problematic, though, because the committee won’t meet again for a while and the clock is ticking. Plus, in order to change the CFP format, there has to be a unanimous decision by the committee, and The American commissioner Mike Aresco has said he won’t vote to change the format. So, that might not be the best course of action.

There could be a lot more riding on this development than just which conference Oregon State and Washington State join. The committee has a huge decision to make these next few weeks when it comes to the CFP format. I don’t think anyone wants to see more substantial changes to the highest level of college football, but I can’t help but see the writing on the wall. It feels like this will be the first step in the Power 5 conferences separating from the Group of 5 conferences or vice versa, which will completely change the college football landscape forever.

There’s been so much tension between the two entities since the CFP was established. The Group of 5 schools only receive 20% of the revenue, and there have even been rumblings of them starting their own playoff format. Unless the committee decides to give more than one Group of 5 conference champion a guaranteed spot in the CFP, which I highly doubt will happen, I think there’s only going to be more division. Regardless of how the committee handles the Pac-12’s situation.

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Adding Cal, Stanford, SMU isn’t going to save the ACC

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“If in doubt, Meriadoc, always follow your nose.”

– Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” (2001)

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at the Westin Hotel in Charlotte. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports


I realize how late I am to write about the recent conference realignment news from the ACC, but I’ve been swamped with other projects. I finally found the time to write my thoughts. 

Even though the news the last few weeks has been devoted to the Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12 (RIP), the ACC found itself in the news for the wrong reasons. Florida State has been vocal about how unhappy it is in the ACC, specifically with the conference’s current revenue distribution and media rights agreement. The Seminoles have even threatened to pay the $120 million exit fee to leave the conference — going so far as to work with a private equity firm to help with costs.

Everyone was so caught up with the exit fee that they ignored the biggest issue facing Florida State, which was the ACC’s grant of rights that doesn’t expire until 2036. The Seminoles were free to pay the exit fee and leave the conference, but it’d be pointless to do so if they couldn’t get out of the grant of rights. If Florida State had left the ACC without getting out of the grant of rights, it’d mean that any media revenue that the school generated would still go to the ACC for the next 13 years. That’s why I never believed the Seminoles were going to leave the conference any time soon. 

The other issue was that there likely wasn’t a conference that would take Florida State right now. I doubt the Big Ten would be interested because the school isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities. Every member of the Big Ten is an AAU member except Nebraska, which was an AAU member at the time it joined the conference. I also think the Big 12 and SEC are content at 16 members…for now. It seems like the Seminoles are stuck.

I bring all that up because I don’t think Florida State is going to stop trying to get out of the ACC. The conference makes substantially less money in media revenue than the Big Ten and SEC. The Seminoles view themselves on the same competitive level as some of the institutions in those conferences. Florida State isn’t going to tolerate the ACC for much longer. If the Seminoles are looking elsewhere, it’s safe to assume that Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and even Notre Dame are doing the same. 

In an effort to either put off the day that those schools leave the conference (or avoid it altogether), the ACC made the decision to expand west by adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. 

On the surface, I can see why the conference made this decision. Cal and Stanford are excellent academic institutions and are great fits in the ACC because of that. SMU also isn’t an academic slouch and gives the conference a footprint in Texas. Adding those three schools will also lead to $72 million in extra revenue from the TV networks. Cal and Stanford are going to take a significantly reduced share of revenue distribution, and SMU will forgo any revenue for almost a decade. That means more money in the pockets of the other ACC members, so it was a win for all parties. 

The problem with adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU is that they don’t bring much to the table. When was the last time Cal was relevant in a revenue-generating sport? Probably since Aaron Rodgers or Marshawn Lynch played football there. Stanford has pretty much been irrelevant historically in revenue-generating sports, with the exception of the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw years in football. SMU has plenty of boosters with deep pockets, but that’s about all it brings to the table. The Mustangs haven’t even been able to win The American since joining the conference in 2013. 

The other commonality with all three institutions is that, while located in large markets, none of them control their market. TCU has more of a footprint in Dallas than SMU, and even the Horned Frogs are likely behind Texas. For years, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 tried to establish a footprint in the San Francisco Bay Area, but to no avail. 

I just don’t see how these additions are going to lead to anything good for the ACC. I don’t think Cal, Stanford, or SMU will compete in the conference. They’re also not geographic fits and travel costs will be through the roof. For the time being, it probably won’t mean much with those institutions accepting reduced shares of media revenue for the next few years. That’ll send a larger chunk of the metaphorical pie to Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina’s pockets, which should appease everyone in the short term. 

However, when the western schools start receiving larger shares, that’s not going to make Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina very happy. Remember, those were the four ACC members that were vehemently opposed to adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. It wasn’t until a last-minute switch from NC State that the three western schools even had the votes to be accepted into the conference. 

Adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU feels like the beginning of the end for the ACC. Once Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina leave for either the Big Ten or SEC, I can’t imagine the ACC survives. The conference doesn’t have much to offer outside of those four schools. The majority of the members that would be left behind are small, private institutions that aren’t big brands or that competitive in athletics. They’re just along for the ride to collect a $30 million check from media partners.

What I’m seeing develop in the ACC is awfully close to what we just saw happen in the Pac-12. For years, the ACC has placed too much of an emphasis on academics. That’s part of the reason why the conference has ranked dead last among Power 5 (4?) conferences in TV viewership for the last few years. The ACC also hasn’t wanted to be associated with conferences/institutions that don’t share the same academic values. That’s why it partnered with the Big Ten and Pac-12 in The Alliance and why the ACC explored a merger with the Pac-12 about a year ago.

Without big brands like Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina, I have a difficult time seeing any TV network paying top dollar to broadcast Boston College, Stanford, SMU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, etc. Keep in mind that the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will likely get the opportunity to re-negotiate new media rights agreements before the ACC can re-negotiate the one that it agreed to in 2016. The conference is going to have to think outside the box to find other revenue streams, which it has started to do, but I’m not convinced it’s going to be enough.

I don’t expect any schools to leave the ACC for at least a few years, and a lot can change in that time, but things don’t look good for the conference right now.

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The Big 12 deserves this victory

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“You should’ve gone for the head.”

– Thanos, “Avengers: Infinity War” (2018)

A view of the Big 12 conference champion trophy during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports


All the talk by the pundits the last few years was how the Big 12 was on shaky ground and how the conference would fold by 2025. 

I understand why everyone thought that way, though. As a fan of a Big 12 school since 2012, a cloud always seemed to hang over the conference. It lost four members (Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M) to other conferences in 2010 and 2011. Oklahoma and Texas seemed to be reluctant members of the Big 12 the last decade. The conference tried to expand in 2016 and the efforts were quashed, which cost its members the opportunity to make more money. The Big 12 also lacked its own TV network and was last in line to get a new media rights deal.

The tea leaves appeared to read that the conference’s demise was imminent. When Oklahoma and Texas announced they were leaving the Big 12 for the SEC in 2021, and other members reportedly started to search for a home in another conference, that presumed judgement day was on the horizon. 

When the market for expansion from other conferences turned out to be lukewarm, the remaining eight Big 12 members stuck together in solidarity. That turned out to be the right decision. 

I was often critical of Bob Bowlsby’s tenure as Big 12 commissioner, but he deserves a lot of credit for the conference being in its current state. He convinced the remaining members to stay together, and expanded to add BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Each of those schools are solid brands located in large markets and have had success in football. 

Those actions by Bowlsby finally gave the Big 12 some semblance of stability after the departures of Oklahoma and Texas, but the upward trend would only be getting started. 

Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark speaks to the press during Big 12 football media day at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports


I was impressed with the conference’s decision to hire Brett Yormark to succeed Bowlsby as commissioner. He was an outside-the-box hire, with experience at NASCAR, Brooklyn Sports & Entertainment, and Roc Nation. He was also the type of innovative leader the Big 12 needed. 

Yormark has been the conference’s commissioner for only a year and has already shown an incredible vision for the future. He announced the new Rucker Park program in New York (taking advantage of the Big 12’s recent dominance in college basketball), a partnership with the NFL to form Big 12 Pro Day (the first ever conference-wide pro day, replacing the traditional on-campus pro days), and the launch of Big 12 Mexico (an attempt to expand the conference’s brand internationally). The way he presented at Big 12 media day was reminiscent of Steve Jobs at Apple. 

The most impressive part of Yormark’s year-long tenure is how he negotiated a new, respectable media rights deal (leapfrogging the Pac-12 by doing so) within three months of taking the job. That gave the Big 12 even more stability and allowed Yormark to pursue Colorado to return to the conference. That caused Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah to follow. 

Seriously, who would’ve thought the Big 12 would be in this position two years ago? The conference now sits at 16 members, and each one seems to be on the same page and is aware of where it stands in the ever-changing landscape of college athletics. You could make the argument that the Big 12 is the best overall athletic conference from top to bottom in the revenue-generating sports. The Big 12 now seems poised to outlast both the Pac-12 and ACC and become the third major conference in college athletics. 

Kansas Jayhawks forward David McCormack (33) and Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Bryson Williams (11) compete for the tip-off in the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports


After the events of the last few weeks, I think everyone can see that the college football landscape is shifting toward either two super conferences or one super conference. I’m not convinced that the Big 12 will ever be able to pass the Big Ten or SEC in revenue and become one of those super conferences. However, I think Yormark has demonstrated that he’s seeing one, two, possibly three moves ahead of the other commissioners of the major conferences. I think he’s just getting started creating different revenue streams for the Big 12. We’ll see if that can keep the conference alive. 

In terms of which of the major conferences are going to survive 10-20 years from now, it’s fair to assume that the Big 12 won’t be able to do so. It lacks the big brands like the ones in the Big Ten and SEC. My rebuttal against that is my point earlier that the Big 12 is now full of members that know where they stand in college athletics and are on the same page, which ought to create stability. Plus, the Big 12 has demonstrated time and time again in the last decade that it’ll find a way to endure. I wouldn’t be so quick to count the conference out.

That’s an issue for another day, though. In the meantime, Big 12 fans need to enjoy this deserving victory. The conference has been left for dead twice since 2010 and is now in a position of strength for the first time in decades.  

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The Pac-12’s demise has been imminent for decades

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Did you order the code red?”

– Daniel Kafee, “A Few Good Men” (1992)

A detailed view of the Pac-12 Conference logo at midfield at Allegiant Stadium before the 2021 Pac-12 Championship Game between the Oregon Ducks and the Utah Utes. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports


We witnessed history in college athletics at the end of last week. Five members of the Pac-12 left the conference in a single day, which will be the unofficial death blow. It’s time to perform last rites, if no one has done so already. 

It all started with Oregon and Washington — in the middle of a morning meeting about a potential grant of rights for the future of the Pac-12 — revealing that they were heading to the Big Ten. Then, it was announced later that day that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah were following Colorado to the Big 12. 

I don’t know what’s to come for the remaining members — Cal, Oregon State, Stanford, and Washington State. There are rumors of a potential merger with the Mountain West. I’ve also read that the Big 12 might not be done and could target some of those schools to add to its inventory. 

This kind of mass exodus from a single conference isn’t completely unprecedented. Just read up on what happened to the old Southwest Conference. I’ll admit that that was a little before my time, though. 

I’m not the least bit surprised that it got to this point for the Pac-12. It seemed like it was trending in this direction for a while, which is why I’ve spent so much time writing about it in the past year. The only part of the Pac-12’s demise that truly surprised me is how quick it happened. Within a span of 10 days, the conference lost six of its remaining 10 members. History would show that the decision to switch conferences usually takes longer than just a few days. 

The Pac-12’s roots go back more than 100 years when it was originally called the Pacific Coast Conference. So, how did it come to this for such a storied conference? I actually think the Pac-12’s demise has been imminent for a while. 

Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff speaks during Pac-12 Media Day at Resorts World Las Vegas. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports


The Pac-12’s downward trend began when it hired Larry Scott as commissioner back in 2009. Scott had previously worked for the Women’s Tennis Association and was the president and CEO of ATP Properties, which is a division of the Americans of Tennis Professionals. 

His tenure actually got off to a good start. Within a year, the then Pac-10 expanded to add Colorado and Utah (becoming what is now the Pac-12). Then, Scott negotiated a lucrative media rights deal worth $3 billion with ESPN and FOX, and created the Pac-12 Network. Everything seemed to be trending up. 

The problem is that the Pac-12 Network turned into a disaster. It struggled with distribution and wasn’t as financially viable as the Big Ten and SEC networks. That’s why many of the Pac-12’s current members are in financial trouble and looking for a bigger check from other conferences. The conference’s decision to not play a full season during the COVID-19 pandemic probably didn’t help matters either. 

Scott also placed too much of an emphasis on Olympic sports, which shouldn’t surprise anyone given his tennis background. That’s really poor decisionmaking because revenue-generating sports drive media rights deals and athletic department budgets. When it was announced that he would no longer be the Pac-12’s commissioner in 2021, a lot of people, including myself, thought the conference could turn things around if it made the right hire. 

Enter George Kliavkoff, who came to the Pac-12 from MGM Resorts International and had a background with a variety of TV networks. Hiring Kliavkoff felt like an outside-the-box way of thinking and I actually applauded the conference for doing it. However, you could argue that Kliavkoff has been even more disastrous than Scott. 

Let’s start with “The Alliance.” Remember that? Within a few months of Kliavkoff’s tenure as Pac-12 commissioner, he “joined forces” with the ACC and Big Ten in response to the SEC adding Oklahoma and Texas. “The Alliance” was originally intended to be a collaborative approach to further evolve college athletics and scheduling. Kliavkoff also gave us this gem of a quote in regards to how “The Alliance” would prevent conferences from poaching members of another conference, “There’s no signed contract. There’s an agreement among three gentlemen. There’s a commitment between 41 presidents and chancellors and 41 athletic directors to do what we say we’re going to do…there’s no signed contract and there doesn’t need to be.” 

It should be noted that UCLA and USC announced that they were headed to the Big Ten within a year of that quote. After their departures, Kliavkoff turned to ACC commissioner Jim Phillips about a potential merger with a conference championship in Las Vegas. That ended up going nowhere.

Kliavkoff also butchered the Pac-12’s media rights negotiations. He decided to pass on re-upping with ESPN and FOX to take the bidding to the open market, where he asked for $50 million per school. I understand that it’s a negotiation and you start high and meet in the middle, but that was a huge misstep. Not only was the Pac-12 not worth that amount of money without UCLA and USC, but that also allowed the Big 12 to leapfrog the Pac-12 to a new media rights deal. That gave the Big 12 the stability and exposure that schools like Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah wanted. 

Now, I admit that I gave Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 the benefit of the doubt during its media rights negotiations. I thought the conference was valuable because it was the only premier college football in the Mountain and Pacific time zones. I also thought it was smart to embrace streaming services because I think those are the future of media rights deals. Kliavkoff either wasn’t able to sell the Pac-12 to these streaming services or they just weren’t interested in paying a premium. Somehow, though, he was able to convince the members of the conference to be patient as they waited over a year for a new media rights deal. 

Another misstep by Kliavkoff came at Pac-12 media day when he got to the podium and said he wouldn’t reveal a media rights deal in order to keep the attention on football. That implied he had a deal in the works, which he later backtracked and said to reporters “You’re reading too much into that” when asked follow-up questions. He also said, “The longer we wait for the media deal, the better our options get.” 

I remember reading those quotes by Kliavkoff and thinking, “Who are you kidding, dude?” The latter of the two quotes just screamed incompetence because that’s not how negotiating works. That moment was the end of the line for Colorado, which bolted for the Big 12 the next week. Colorado’s departure also forced Kliavkoff to present the numbers of the media rights deal he’d been sitting on from Apple to the remaining Pac-12 members, which wasn’t on par with the Big 12’s deal with ESPN and FOX ($31.7 million per school). 

So, Scott did nothing to further elevate the Pac-12’s brand under his tenure and Kliavkoff constantly had egg land on his face. It’s been an embarrassing display of leadership by both men. 

Oregon Ducks running back Noah Whittington (22) picks up a first down during the first half as he is tackled by Washington Huskies cornerback Mishael Powell (23) at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports


Something else to remember about conference realignment is that the athletic directors, conferences, and TV networks don’t have full control of the situation. Ultimately, it comes down to the presidents, chancellors, and governing boards of universities to decide whether or not to leave a conference to join another one. While Scott and Kliavkoff deserve the blame for the current state of the Pac-12, it’s important to remember how the administrations of the conference’s institutions mishandled several situations in recent decades (yes, decades). 

There have been several times when the TV networks told the Pac-12 what would be in its best interest and the conference chose not to do it. The Pac-12 frequently overlooked BYU when it came to expansion, which is why the school is currently a member of the Big 12. I can’t state enough how adding BYU likely saved the Big 12 from extinction a few years ago, while also lining the conference’s pockets because the school is a great brand with a large following. The Pac-12 sure could’ve used a brand like BYU in its recent media rights negotiations. 

The Pac-12 also had the chance to destroy the Big 12 not only once, but twice, in the span of 11 years. After Colorado and Nebraska left the Big 12 in 2010, there was reportedly an agreement in place that would allow Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech to join the Pac-12. That would’ve been a death blow to the Big 12. Instead, Pac-12 institutions quashed it. That allowed the Big 12 to stay alive and add TCU and West Virginia. The Pac-12 sure could’ve used those Big 12 schools in its recent media rights negotiations. 

In 2021, there were talks of a merger between the Big 12 and Pac-12. Once again, Pac-12 institutions quashed it. That allowed the Big 12 to stay together and add BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Again, the Pac-12 sure could’ve used those Big 12 schools in its recent media rights negotiations. 

So, why did Pac-12 institutions make so many terrible decisions in the last 11 years? I think it comes down to a combination of arrogance and hubris, along with cultural and political differences. Plus, I think the whole “conference of champions” mindset gave Pac-12 members an inflated sense of self-worth. 

I don’t think Pac-12 institutions wanted to be associated with Big 12 institutions. For the most part, Pac-12 schools have very high academic standards and are located in areas of the country with left-leaning political ideologies. That’s not the case with the Big 12. The members of that conference don’t have high academic standards and are located in areas with right-leaning political ideologies. I also don’t think the Pac-12 wanted anything to do with religious-affiliated schools like Baylor, BYU, and TCU. 

Now, I don’t like the term “coastal elite” because I think it’s used too much. However, I think it applies to the Pac-12. The institutions of that conference didn’t want anything to do with the political and cultural aspects of Middle America and the Big 12. If it did, the Big 12 would’ve folded back in 2010 or in 2021. 

There’s a reason why the Pac-12 wanted to be aligned with the ACC and Big Ten when its back was against the wall. Those two conferences have high academic standards and have common political ideologies. In the past few weeks, Pac-12 fanbases also coined the term “truck stop conference” when referring to the Big 12. 

Do you see my point? That kind of “coastal elite” attitude is why the Pac-12 is currently in this situation, along with terrible leadership from the conference and its institutions. I don’t think most college football fans, including the TV networks, wanted the Pac-12 to end. It’s hard for me to feel sorry for the conference, though, when it made the wrong decision time and time again. Well, the chickens have come home to roost and it’s fitting that the Big 12 is getting the last laugh. 

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Colorado’s return to the Big 12 shouldn’t surprise anyone

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m gonna go see Dr. Finklestein and I’m gonna tell him we have a whole new bag of issues. We can forget about mom for a while.”

– Jeremy Grey, “Wedding Crashers” (2005)

Colorado Buffaloes mascot Ralphie is run on tp Folsom Field before the game against the USC Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


The floodgates have now opened. 

On Thursday, Colorado officially announced that it was leaving the Pac-12 to return to the Big 12, where it was a member for 62 years dating back to the old Big Eight days. Unless you live under a rock, this news shouldn’t come as a surprise. 

The Pac-12 has been trying to negotiate a new media rights deal for over a year and is now less than a year away from the conference’s current deal expiring. There’s also zero indication that the conference has a deal in place or even has any numbers on a potential deal. If the Pac-12 had the framework of a deal that was either more lucrative than the Big 12’s new deal or at least on par with it, it’d be shouting it from the top of the Rocky Mountains. Guess what? It’s not.

The lack of future stability and exposure of the Pac-12 is precisely why the Buffaloes are returning to the Big 12. When the Big 12 leapfrogged the Pac-12 in getting a new media rights deal, I wrote that this could be likely to happen. 

General view of the Colorado Buffaloes mascot in the middle of Folsom Field before the game against the California Golden Bears. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


While Colorado isn’t one of the top brands in college athletics, its return to the Big 12 is significant news. I think the remaining Pac-12 members have been bamboozled by commissioner George Kliavkoff, and his delusions of grandeur, that the conference was going to get a new media rights deal that was on par with the Big Ten’s new deal.

I’ve tried to give the Pac-12 the benefit of the doubt, but I don’t see how it’s able to salvage this situation and prevent its remaining attractive members — Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Utah, and Washington — from jumping ship. With Colorado’s departure, the Pac-12 now has zero leverage in its media rights negotiations. No media company or streaming service is going to pay top dollar for an uncertain product. They’re going to want specifics on which member institutions are committed to the Pac-12, and I highly doubt the conference can provide that information at this point. 

The Pac-12 can try to expand, but its options are limited. San Diego State tried to get the process started last month, but was unsuccessful. Now, the Aztecs have a $34 million buyout if it wants to leave the Mountain West, which I doubt they can afford. I’m not familiar with SMU’s buyout with the American, so I don’t know if that’s a legitimate option or not. Even if the Mustangs are a legitimate option, do they move the needle enough to create more revenue for a media rights deal AND do they want to join the Pac-12 given its uncertainty? I highly doubt it.

The statement from the Pac-12 on Thursday night in response to Colorado’s announcement didn’t convince me that things are going to get better either. 

I don’t think the Big 12 is done expanding. It’s going to make a strong push to add more schools from the Pac-12, especially given the pro rata clause from ESPN. That clause guarantees that when the Big 12 adds a current Power 5 school, that school automatically gets a full revenue share of the Big 12’s media rights deal ($31.7 million). That’s significant news and an incredible ace in the hole for the Big 12.

Do people really think Colorado was the only member of the Pac-12 that was concerned about the future stability and exposure of the conference? No chance. I believe more schools are going to take the guaranteed paycheck from the Big 12 (or potentially one of the other Power 5 conferences), and it shouldn’t come as a surprise when it happens.

The only question I have is how many Pac-12 members follow Colorado out the door in the next few weeks. 

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I can only take so much change in a single offseason

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“I never realized that the study of nature could advance the science of naval warfare.”

– Capt. Jack Aubrey, “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” (2003)

Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron (37) gets ready for a face-off during the first period in game five of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Florida Panthers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports


The wheel of change has turned once again. 

On Tuesday, Boston captain and future Hall of Famer Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement. That means that three of my favorite teams (Boston, Green Bay, and West Virginia University) have each lost legends in less than six months.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers runs out on to the field as he is announced before a game against Detroit at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Mandatory credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin


It all started back in March when future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers announced his intention to play for the New York Jets in 2023. He wasn’t officially traded until a little over a month later. Even though I’ve made it clear in the past that I wanted Green Bay to trade Rodgers, it doesn’t mean that it didn’t take time to process the realization that the Rodgers era was officially over.

He’d been the franchise quarterback with the Packers since 2008, won a Super Bowl, and led the team to several postseason appearances. It wasn’t going to be easy for me to just move on quickly. Little did I know that that would be just the tip of the iceberg for me when it comes to change.

West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins yells to his team during a play against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second half at Lloyd Noble Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports


A little over 50 days after Rodgers was traded to the Jets, the news broke that Hall of Fame men’s basketball head coach Bob Huggins resigned from WVU following a DUI arrest. He meant so much to WVU fans. Huggins wasn’t only from the state and a WVU alumnus, but he won over 300 games at WVU and led the program to 10 NCAA tournament appearances in 16 seasons, including an appearance in the Final Four in 2010.

Huggins’ departure was arguably even more difficult to process because it was so abrupt and unexpected. It was also understandable because the university didn’t have much of a choice since he’d been in trouble once already this offseason. So, I felt a plethora of emotions when trying to process that Huggins wouldn’t coach WVU anymore. Did the change stop there, though? Nope.

Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron (37) leaves the ice after the game against the Carolina Hurricanes in game seven of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports


The news of Bergeron’s retirement surprised me more than it should have since he considered it last year. I expected Bergeron to be back with Boston for at least one more season, especially with the centennial season coming up. He finished his career in the top 10 in Bruins history in games played, goals, and assists. Bergeron was also Boston’s de facto captain for the last 15 years, a six-time Selke Trophy winner (awarded to the best defensive forward), and a Stanley Cup champion.

He meant so much to the organizations and is one of the reasons why the team is now a perennial playoff team. It’s a shame that the Bruins couldn’t win another Stanley Cup with him. I was just beginning to cope with getting eliminated in the first round of the postseason after a historic regular season and then I saw this news. This is going to take some time process.

A general view of TD Garden during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Philadelphia Flyers. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports


How is it possible for one sports fan to endure this much change in a little over four months? I understand that change is a part of life, but it feels like it should be statistically impossible to lose that many Hall of Fame-caliber contributors in such a short amount of time. This is why being a sports fan can be just as heartbreaking as it can be joyful.

I firmly believe that turning the page in sports can feel like a breath of fresh air, but after this much change I feel like I’m trying to catch my breath at high altitude. I actually had a co-worker tell me recently that I don’t handle change well, so it makes sense that I go through something like this. The good news is that I shouldn’t lose another legend any time soon that meant as much to me as Rodgers, Huggins, and Bergeron. 

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What an unfortunate end to the Huggins era at WVU

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“They say once you grow crops somewhere, you have officially colonized it. So, technically, I colonized Mars. In your face, Neil Armstrong!”

– Mark Watney, “The Martian” (2015)

West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins yells to his team during a play against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second half at Lloyd Noble Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports


It’s the end of an era in Morgantown, W.Va., as Bob Huggins has resigned as the West Virginia men’s basketball head coach. The decision comes following a DUI arrest over the weekend in Pittsburgh. 

I’m not surprised about the outcome. Once I saw the news of Huggins’ arrest Saturday morning, I thought it was highly unlikely he’d keep his job. Remember, just a few weeks ago, Huggins got in trouble for saying a gay slur on a Cincinnati radio show. WVU cut him some slack for that, but couldn’t do it this time around. 

I don’t blame the university either. WVU’s hands were tied. Huggins likely keeps his job if only one of those incidents occur in a single offseason, but not both. Huggins brought this on himself because of terrible decision making. He has the money and resources to have a designated driver, or order an Uber at the very least. There’s no excuse. 

I just can’t believe that this is how the Huggins era comes to an end. He’s not only a WVU alumnus, but he’s from Morgantown. Huggins understood what WVU athletics meant to the people of West Virginia and he embodied what it meant to be a Mountaineer. When it comes to what kind of head coach (no matter the sport) the fanbase wants, it points to him. 

I can still remember back in 2007 when former head coach John Beilein left WVU for Michigan. The fanbase didn’t have a list of candidates to replace Beilein. There was only one candidate and it was Huggins. There’s not a single WVU fan who wouldn’t take a bullet for him, even after the mistakes he’s made this offseason. 

Huggins coached at WVU for 16 seasons, won 345 games, and led the program to 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, including the Final Four in 2010. He also got his spot in the Basketball Hall of Fame just last year, which was long overdue. I think he had his eye on a few more accolades, like becoming the winningest head coach in WVU men’s basketball history along with eclipsing 1,000 career wins. 

I also think Huggins was trying to accomplish something special while he was coming toward the end of his tenure at WVU, which would explain why he’d become so reliant on the transfer portal in recent years. After Jim Boeheim retired back in March, Huggins became the winningest active head coach in Division I men’s basketball. I wanted to see him hold that title for a few years, but he only held it for a few weeks. 

Every WVU fan wanted this to have a better ending. Huggins is the kind of head coach you build a statue of outside the WVU Coliseum, and name the court after him. Both of those things could still happen, but I don’t see it happening for a while. Instead, Huggins is getting forced out in a mid-summer coaching change as the team prepares for the upcoming season. 

I’ve already seen reports about who could replace Huggins as WVU’s head coach. I’m having a difficult time getting excited for that, though. I’ve thought more than once that it might be time to move on from Huggins in recent years, but he’s not someone you can simply replace. Huggins wasn’t only a coaching legend, but he meant so much to WVU and the fanbase. I’m still wrapping my head around that I’ve seen Huggins coach the Mountaineers for the last time. 

I hope this is a wake up call for him to get his act together. It’s sad and unfortunate that it came to this point. 

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Could UConn really join the Big 12?

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Why is it that people who can’t take advice always insist on giving it?”

– James Bond, “Casino Royale” (2006)

Connecticut Huskies head coach Jim Mora before the start of the game against the Liberty Flames at Rentschler Field at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports


We all know that the Big 12 is making a strong push to add Pac-12 members and get into the Pacific Time Zone window. Well, a report surfaced last week that the Big 12 could also be targeting UConn as a member for all sports. 

Let’s pretend that the report is true and the Huskies accept an invitation to join the Big 12 in the next year or so, it’d mean they’d be joining a third different conference in less than 20 years. Remember, UConn first joined the Big East in all sports in 2004. When the Big East gave up sponsoring football, the Huskies then joined the American Athletic Conference in 2014. In 2019, they re-joined the Big East in every sport except football, which is currently independent. That decision came after several losing seasons in football and a substantial sports-created deficit. 

When UConn made the decision to re-join the Big East, it gave me the impression that the school doesn’t care about fielding a competitive football program. The Huskies have struggled in football since 2011 — posting a record of 37-97 and appearing in just two bowl games. My impression didn’t change when the school didn’t play a game during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The decision to not prioritize football is a huge mistake in today’s college athletics. Football revenue is the driving force of every athletic department in the country. Why even bother competing at the FBS level if you’re not going to prioritize the sport? It wasn’t even that long ago that UConn had a somewhat competitive football program and made an appearance in the Fiesta Bowl. 

So, why would the Big 12 consider the Huskies as an expansion candidate? Well, because of the amount of success the school has had in both men’s and women’s basketball. UConn has a combined 28 appearances in the Final Four and 16 national championships between the two programs since 1991. The Huskies have a quality brand and also provide geographic diversification. I think the Big 12 is serious about adding them. 

The Big 12 is arguably the strongest conference in men’s basketball right now. The conference had seven of its 10 members make the NCAA tournament this past season, eight members ranked in the top 50 of KenPom’s rankings, and only one member had a losing record (Oklahoma). The Big 12 also has had a representative in the Final Four in five of the last seven NCAA tournaments, three of those five teams competing in the national championship, and two of those three cutting down the nets. That’s not even counting that two of the Big 12’s soon-to-be members (Cincinnati and Houston) have had success in men’s hoops. 

The Big 12 is a hot commodity in college basketball right now, to say the least, which is why the conference also has been in touch with Gonzaga about joining. Men’s basketball is a revenue-generating sport (behind only football) and the Big 12 currently gets a lot of eyeballs. Commissioner Brett Yormark wants the conference to be the best in men’s basketball and adding the Bulldogs and the Huskies will ensure that. 

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley cuts down the net after defeating the San Diego State Aztecs in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports


The problem is that if UConn left the Big East for the Big 12, it’d owe approximately $30 million in exit fees. That’s a lot of money for an athletic department that’s in the red by a considerable amount. However, I don’t think UConn will be able to pass up on the opportunity should it present itself. 

The Big East signed a 12-year deal with FOX in 2012, which averages roughly $42 million annually ($3.8 million per school). That’s not a lot of money for a conference that prides itself on men’s basketball. To compare, Yormark just announced that the Big 12 had a record revenue distribution of $44 million in 2022. 

UConn’s athletic department isn’t going to survive if its football program remains independent. The school isn’t making enough money through basketball to keep the athletic department afloat. This isn’t like when BYU went independent in football and competed in the West Coast Conference in men’s basketball for almost a decade. UConn doesn’t have anywhere near the support from its fanbase as BYU, which I consider to be “Notre Dame Lite.”

If the Huskies get an invitation to the Big 12, I think they have to take it despite their athletic department’s financial situation. A few years with Big 12 revenue will get UConn back in the black, maybe even the green. 

Yormark is thinking outside the box to create more revenue by trying to make the Big 12 so strong in men’s basketball (and playing games in Mexico), but his first priority is still football. UConn’s chances of joining the Big 12 are likely dependent on if the conference poaches schools from the Pac-12. I think the same goes for Gonzaga, San Diego State, and SMU. 

This could all pick up steam in the next few weeks because we’re approaching exactly one year before the Pac-12’s media rights deal expires. The end of this month is also when San Diego State, which has been linked to both the Big 12 and Pac-12 as an expansion candidate, has to notify the Mountain West that it’s leaving or else it has to wait until 2025. 

If the Big 12 isn’t able to poach any Pac-12 schools, I expect the Big 12 and other every conference to standpat. At least for a little while longer. 

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2023 NCAA Tournament predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Am I wrong?”

– Walter Sobchak, “The Big Lebowski” (1998)

I always enjoy March Madness, but I’m particularly looking forward to it this season. I’m getting tired of the NFL offseason storylines, specifically in regards to Aaron Rodgers and whether he’s going to play in 2023. College basketball is going to bring a refreshing change to my life, at least for the next three weeks. It also feels good having my West Virginia Mountaineers in the NCAA tournament after missing out last year, so I’m going to be even more invested.

Last year was one of the worst jobs I did when it came to filling out a bracket. By the end of the first day of last year’s tournament, Kentucky lost to Saint Peter’s and Iowa lost to Richmond. I had each of those teams getting to the Final Four, and I had Kentucky winning it all. Auburn was eliminated in the second round and Arizona lost in the Sweet 16. I had each of those teams getting to the Elite Eight, and I had Arizona playing for the national championship. If you don’t believe just how bad it was, just take a look.

I think I finished last year with a measly 38 points in all my bracket challenges, because I fill out the same bracket with every group. I’m not 100% sure if that’s the worst I’ve ever done, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not. I consider my reputation to be on the line this year. I need to do better and put last year’s abysmal performance behind me. For the first time ever on this blog, I’m going to be picking the First Four matchups. I don’t understand why I haven’t done that in the past.

My opinion of this NCAA tournament is that it’s one of the strongest ones I’ve ever seen. I think there were six or seven teams that had arguments to be No. 1 seeds. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen that before. There are also a plethora of mid-major schools with a lot of experience. I also wouldn’t bet against Big 12 members. The Big 12 has had four different schools make the Final Four in the last six tournaments. The previous two national champions have also come from that conference. March Madness never fails to be entertaining, but I think this tournament has a chance to be special.

Nevada Wolf Pack center Will Baker (50) drives for a layup against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

First Four – Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10)

The computers seem to think that there’s a substantial difference between these teams. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks almost 100 spots higher than Southeast Missouri State in KenPom’s rankings. The Redhawks also don’t rank that high in either adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency. The Islanders also have tournament experience from last year.

Winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

No. 11 Pitt (22-11) vs. No. 11 Mississippi State (21-12)

According to the metrics, Pitt is one of the worst teams in the tournament. The Panthers rank No. 77 in KenPom’s rankings, which is the 17th worst of the entire field. Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks – winners of nine of its last 13 games. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: Mississippi State

No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (19-15) vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (14-20)

The metrics consider these teams to be the two worst teams in the field. I don’t know what to make of them, but it’s telling that Fairleigh Dickinson has won 19 games and ranks No. 312 in KenPom’s rankings. That’s behind Texas Southern, which s entering the NCAA tournament six games below .500.

Winner: Texas Southern

No. 11 Nevada (22-10) vs. No. 11 Arizona State (22-12)

ESPN’s BPI rankings considers these teams to be in the bottom 20 of the tournament field. I guess I’m going to give the slight advantage to Arizona State. The Sun Devils have more talent and they’ve played somewhat well recently. Mountain West teams are also 1-11 in the NCAA tournament since 2016.

Winner: Arizona State

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats talks with Alabama Crimson Tide guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 64

South Regional

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 1 Alabama (29-5) – Birmingham, Ala.

A No. 16 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed only once in the history of the NCAA tournament. I don’t think I’m ever going to predict it to happen. Alabama looked impressive in the SEC tournament and I expect it to cruise to the next round.

Winner: Alabama

No. 9 West Virginia (19-14) vs. No. 8 Maryland (21-12) – Birmingham, Ala.

WVU feels like a team that’s going to benefit by getting out of Big 12 play. I also think this could be a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers. WVU struggles with turnovers, but Maryland isn’t good at forcing them. The Terrapins also don’t shoot the ball or rebound as well as the Mountaineers. I’m going to rely on the better head coach in Bob Huggins.

Winner: West Virginia

No. 12 Charleston (31-3) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (27-6) – Orlando, Fla.

The 5/12 matchups are always enticing to pick the upset, but I think this is a tough matchup for Charleston. San Diego State rebounds very well and likes to slow the game down. The Cougars don’t shoot the ball that well and they haven’t really been challenged in weeks. I expect the Aztecs to give Charleston a lot of problems.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Furman (27-7) vs. No. 4 Virginia (25-7) – Orlando, Fla.

I flirted with picking the upset in this matchup. Furman is a great offensive team that takes care of the basketball. I’m not sure the Paladins shoot well enough from 3-point territory to upset Virginia, though. The Cavaliers commit the fewest amount of turnovers in the country and shoot the ball well. It’s hard to pick against Tony Bennett and Virginia.

Winner: Virginia

No. 11 NC State (23-10) vs. No. 6 Creighton (21-12) – Denver

I’m not much of a believer in either of these coaches. Neither have had much success in the NCAA tournament. However, this feels like Greg McDermott’s best team at Creighton since his son was there in 2014. The Bluejays have also won 12 of their last 16 games. I feel like Creighton should advance because I didn’t think NC State should’ve made the tournament.

Winner: Creighton

No. 14 UC-Santa Barbara (27-7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (22-10) – Denver

I think this is a flawed Baylor team, but it should be able to take care of business in this game. UC-Santa Barbara is one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament and the Bears rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I expect the Gauchos will have a difficult time slowing down Baylor’s offense. The Bears also have a significant talent and coaching advantage.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Utah State (26-8) vs. No. 7 Missouri (24-9) – Sacramento, Calif.

I can’t get a read on Missouri. Winning 24 games and getting to the semifinals of the SEC tournament is an impressive feat, but the metrics consider the Tigers one of the worst teams in the tournament. Utah State ranks 33 spots higher than Missouri in KenPom’s rankings. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with the Aggies.

Winner: Utah State

No. 15 Princeton (21-8) vs. No. 2 Arizona (28-6) – Sacramento, Calif.

Ivy League schools actually have a decent track record in the NCAA tournament. This feels like a tough matchup for Princeton, though. Arizona is loaded with talent and has won 13 of its last 16 games, including winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts after making a basket and being fouled during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-5) – Columbus, Ohio

Texas Southern has the ability to rebound, which you need to do in order to beat Purdue. However, there’s no way I’m picking a team with a losing record to upset a No. 1 seed.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 FAU (31-3) vs. No. 8 Memphis (26-8) – Columbus, Ohio

This feels like a tough matchup for FAU. I think Memphis is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Tigers are loaded with talent and shoot the ball well. The best way for the Owls to win this game is to force turnovers and I don’t think they do that well enough – ranking No. 154 in the country.

Winner: Memphis

No. 12 Oral Roberts (30-4) vs. No. 5 Duke (26-8) – Orlando, Fla.

Oral Roberts is arguably the strongest No. 12 seed in the tournament. The Golden Eagles are an excellent offensive team and are red hot entering the NCAA tournament – winners of 17 games in a row. However, Duke is playing its best basketball right now after winning the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are also going to have a significant talent advantage.

Winner: Duke

No. 13 Louisiana (26-7) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (23-10) – Orlando, Fla.

Even though Tennessee hasn’t been the same since Zakai Zeigler got hurt, I still think it’s plenty talented to win this game. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 58 points per game. I don’t think Louisiana, which ranks No. 57 in adjusted offensive efficiency, is good enough to overcome Tennessee’s defense.

Winner: Tennessee

No. 11 Providence (21-11) vs. No. 6 Kentucky (21-11) – Greensboro, N.C.

I swore off picking Kentucky to go deep in the tournament after it lost to Saint Peter’s last year. However, I like the Wildcats in this matchup. They rank in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and rebound the ball very well. Providence doesn’t shoot the ball that well and I don’t think it’s talented enough to knock off Kentucky.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 14 Montana State (25-9) vs. No. 3 Kansas State (23-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

I’m not convinced that Montana State is good enough offensively to knock off Kansas State, which ranks in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bobcats don’t shoot that well from 3-point territory and aren’t the best rebounding team. Jerome Tang has done an excellent job in his first season with the Wildcats and I don’t see their season ending here.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 10 USC (22-10) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (19-12) – Columbus, Ohio

I think USC is talented enough to win this game, but I’m going to go with Michigan State. I’m a firm believer that coaching matters in March and the Spartans have that advantage with Tom Izzo, who’s lost in the Round of 64 only twice since 2011. I also think traveling across the country might have a negative effect on the Trojans.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 15 Vermont (23-10) vs. No. 2 Marquette (28-6) – Columbus, Ohio

I don’t think this is going to be an easy game for Marquette to win. Vermont is a well-coached team that has been a tough out in the NCAA tournament in its last three appearances. The Golden Eagles are red hot right now, though. They’ve won 19 of their last 21 games, including winning the Big East tournament. I expect Marquette to advance.

Winner: Marquette

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson gives direction during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Northern Kentucky (22-12) vs. No. 1 Houston (31-3) – Birmingham, Ala.

Northern Kentucky got hot in its conference tournament and clinched a tournament bid, but it’s considered one of the worst teams in the field. The Norse rank in the bottom six in both KenPom and ESPN BPI. Houston shouldn’t have many problems in this game.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Auburn (20-12) vs. No. 8 Iowa (19-13) – Birmingham, Ala.

I don’t trust Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament. He’s never made it past the first weekend. I also don’t think Iowa is good enough on the defensive end of the court. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom of the tournament field in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn is the more talented team and has the better head coach in Bruce Pearl.

Winner: Auburn

No. 12 Drake (27-7) vs. No. 5 Miami (25-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I can’t go the entire Round of 64 without picking an upset in a 12/5 matchup. It happens almost on a yearly basis. I think Miami is vulnerable after losing Norchad Omier in the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have also struggled on the defensive end of the court. Drake is a solid, tournament experienced team. I like the Bulldogs to get the upset.

Winner: Drake

No. 13 Kent State (28-6) vs. No. 4 Indiana (22-11) – Albany, N.Y.

This is another matchup that I like the upset. Indiana isn’t playing particularly well entering the tournament. The Hoosiers have won only four of their last eight games and struggled to score points during that stretch. Kent State has hung tough with a lot of quality teams this season and are strong defensively. I think the Golden Flashes find a way to win.

Winner: Kent State

No. 11 Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Iowa State (19-13) – Greensboro, N.C.

Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks, but it’s going to be tough for it to win this game. Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 62.8 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t shoot the ball well, especially from 3-point territory. I think the Cyclones also have the better head coach in T.J. Otzelberger.

Winner: Iowa State

No. 14 Kennesaw State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Xavier (25-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

By the time this game rolls around, Kennesaw State wouldn’t have played in 12 days. I think that’s going to be problematic, especially against Xavier. The Musketeers are a great offensive team and have played well in their last six games. The Owls are going to have a difficult time after so much time off.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State (22-13) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (25-9) – Des Moines, Iowa

I don’t feel good about this, but I’m going to pick Penn State to win this game. The Nittany Lions are red hot – winners of eight of their last 10 games – and came three points shy of winning the Big Ten tournament. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time defending Jalen Pickett, who’s averaged 19.6 points in Penn State’s last 10 games.

Winner: Penn State

No. 15 Colgate (26-8) vs. No. 2 Texas (26-8) – Des Moines, Iowa

I wouldn’t sleep on Colgate in this matchup. The Raiders have made each of the last four NCAA tournaments and rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. However, Texas has won six of its last eight games, including winning the Big 12 tournament. I have to go with the Longhorns.

Winner: Texas

Kansas Jayhawks guard MJ Rice (11) sets the play during the first half against the Texas Longhornsat T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard (22-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (27-7) – Des Moines, Iowa

I’m struggling to see a scenario where a lesser team like Howard knocks off the Big 12 regular season champion, which is an impressive feat considering it was the toughest conference this year. Kansas has too much talent to lose this game.

Winner: Kansas

No. 9 Illinois (20-12) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (20-13) – Des Moines, Iowa

This is a tough game to predict because both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. I’m going to give the advantage to Illinois. Arkansas is hobbling to the tournament – losing 11 of its last 19 games. The Fighting Illini are a well-coached team with plenty of athleticism. I think they’re in a slightly better position right now.

Winner: Illinois

No. 12 VCU (27-7) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I like the upset in this game. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I don’t trust come tournament time. I think VCU is going to want to speed the game up and that style of play is going to give the Gaels some trouble. The Rams also have one of the best defenses in the country – ranking No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: VCU

No. 13 Iona (27-7) vs. No. 4 UConn (25-8) – Albany, N.Y.

I’m kind of tempted to pick Iona solely because of Rick Pitino. He’s one of the best coaches in college basketball history and he has the Gaels playing well right now. However, I’m going to give the advantage to UConn because it’s the more talented team. I also think the Huskies might be the most underrated team in this tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU (21-12) – Denver

Jamie Dixon doesn’t have the best track record in the NCAA tournament, but I’m having a difficult time picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs are a talented team and are excellent defensively. Arizona State doesn’t shoot the ball well, which isn’t going to bode well against TCU. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Horned Frogs.

Winner: TCU

No. 14 Grand Canyon (24-11) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (28-5) – Denver

This feels like a bad matchup for Grand Canyon. There are only four teams in the tournament worse than the Antelopes in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the other side, Gonzaga is one of the hottest teams in the country right now and has averaged 90 points in its last 13 games. The Bulldogs also haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2008.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State (24-9) vs. No. 7 Northwestern (21-11) – Sacramento, Calif.

Northwestern is an excellent defensive team, but Boise State plays an interesting style of basketball. The Broncos shoot the ball well and rank in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think points are going to be hard to come by for the Wildcats, who average only 67.7 points per game and shoot 40.6% from the field.

Winner: Boise State

No. 15 UNC-Asheville (27-7) vs. No. 2 UCLA (29-5) – Sacramento, Calif.

UNC-Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games, but UCLA feels like an under seeded team. The Bruins rank No. 2 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI’s rankings. This feels like it’s going to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: UCLA

Creighton Bluejays guard Ryan Nembhard (2) drives to the basket against Villanova Wildcats guard Justin Moore (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 32

South Regional

No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama – Birmingham, Ala.

I think West Virginia has a chance to make a deep tournament run, but I doubt it’s going to be the team to knock off Alabama. The Mountaineers have been vulnerable defensively – allowing 71 points per game. That’s going to be a problem when going up against the Crimson Tide, who average 82.2 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Virginia – Orlando, Fla.

Both of these teams play a similar style of basketball. They’re going to want to slow the game down. The first team to 60 points might win, honestly. I’ll give the advantage to Virginia. The Cavaliers take care of the basketball very well and shoot the ball better than San Diego State. I also think the Aztecs will struggle to score on Virginia’s defense.

Winner: Virginia

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 3 Baylor – Denver

Despite being a No. 3 seed, I have reservations about Baylor being able to make a deep run. The Bears haven’t been playing well down the stretch – losers of four of their last six games. They’re also not a great defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball very well and does a better job of taking care of the basketball, too. I’ll take the minor upset.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 2 Arizona – Sacramento, Calif.

I don’t think Utah State has the length to contend with Arizona. The Aggies average only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game. I don’t think that’s going to be good enough to knock off the Wildcats, who average 39.4 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). Arizona is one of the better shooting teams in the tournament, too. I expect the Wildcats to advance.

Winner: Arizona

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 1 Purdue – Columbus, Ohio

This is going to be a tough matchup for Purdue. The Boilermakers struggle to take care of the basketball at times and Memphis is excellent at forcing turnovers – averaging 15.3 per game. However, the Tigers are going to have a difficult time defending Zach Edey, who averages 22.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. I’ll go with Purdue to squeak out a win.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 4 Tennessee – Orlando, Fla.

I don’t see Tennessee being able to make a deep run without Zeigler. The Volunteers aren’t the same team without him. This is going to be a tough matchup for them. Duke is playing very well right now and feels like a vastly under seeded team. The Blue Devils are also going to have the talent advantage. I like them to advance to the Sweet 16.

Winner: Duke

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Kansas State – Greensboro, N.C.

I’ve been burned by John Calipari and Kentucky too many times in recent years. So, I’m going to go with Kansas State to win this game. The Wildcats have the ability to match Kentucky’s rebounding production. I also think Kansas State will be able to expose the Wildcats’ defense, which ranks No. 71 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Marquette – Columbus, Ohio

Again, I think coaching matters. I don’t trust Shaka Smart, who has a record of 2-8 in the NCAA tournament since 2011 and is winless since 2013. With only two days to prepare, I’m going to give Izzo the advantage. I think Marquette will have a difficult time scoring on Michigan State’s defense, which allows just 67.4 points per game.

Winner: Michigan State

Drake Bulldogs guard D.J. Wilkins (0) reacts after making a three pointer against the Bradley Braves during the first half in the finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 1 Houston – Birmingham, Ala.

This feels like the furthest Auburn is going to get in the tournament. The Tigers struggle to shoot the ball and have lost nine of their last 13 games. That’s not what it’s going to take to knock off Houston, which ranks No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars are the more athletic team and should be able to take care of business.

Winner: Houston

No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 12 Drake – Albany, N.Y.

I’m going to keep rolling with Drake. The Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in this matchup in Tucker DeVries. Drake is also one of the best shooting teams in the tournament – averaging 47% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point territory. I think the Bulldogs have a good chance of getting past the first weekend.

Winner: Drake

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Xavier – Greensboro, N.C.

While Iowa State is an excellent defensive team, I’m not convinced it has the offense to defeat Xavier. The Musketeers average 81.4 points per game and shoot 49.4% from the floor (39.5% from 3-point territory). They’re also an excellent rebounding team. It feels like too much is going against the Cyclones in this matchup.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas – Des Moines, Iowa

Texas has the depth at guard, especially if Timmy Allen is healthy, to give Pickett and Penn State fits. This feels like the end of the road for the Nittany Lions. I doubt Penn State, which ranks No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency, is good enough on that end of the court to upset the Longhorns. Texas is the much better team and should advance.

Winner: Texas

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates after a play against the Chicago State Cougars in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 1 Kansas – Des Moines, Iowa

Illinois has what it takes to knock off Kansas. I’ve been burned by the Fighting Illini the last two years, though. They’ve been to inconsistent for me to pick the upset. The Jayhawks are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament – allowing only 67.9 points per game. Illinois is going to have a difficult time scoring points.

Winner: Kansas

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 4 UConn – Albany, N.Y.

UConn’s frontcourt is too talented and it has too much length. I have to pick the Huskies to win this game. If the shots aren’t falling for VCU, I doubt it has what it takes to win this game. UConn makes 46% of its shots and still averages 13.4 offensive rebounds per game. That’s very impressive. I don’t think the Rams will be able to overcome that.

Winner: UConn

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 3 Gonzaga – Denver

I’m not convinced that TCU can get past the first weekend without Eddie Lampkin, who recently entered the transfer portal. The Horned Frogs have also lost eight of their last 13 games. Jamie Dixon also hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the tournament since 2009. Gonzaga is the better team right now and I see no reason to pick against the Bulldogs.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 2 UCLA – Sacramento, Calif.

Even though I’m high on Boise State’s offensive ability, this is going to be a tough matchup. UCLA ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 60.3 points per game. I don’t think the Broncos are talented enough to overcome that. I expect the Bruins to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third-straight year.

Winner: UCLA

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Brandon Miller (24) celebrates after a made basket plus one during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Sweet 16

South Regional semifinals – Louisville, Ky.

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama

I actually think Virginia has what it takes to knock off Alabama. The Cavaliers are very good defensively and don’t make mistakes. If they can ugly this game up, the Crimson Tide could be in trouble. I don’t see that happening, though. Alabama is going to have the best player on the court in Brandon Miller. At the end of the day, I don’t think Virginia is good enough offensively to pull off the upset.

Winner: Alabama

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 2 Arizona

I don’t think Creighton is talented enough to knock off Arizona. I’m also struggling to see which part of this matchup the Bluejays have an advantage. The Wildcats are the better shooting and rebounding team, and are the more efficient offensively. Creighton is going to have to play its best game of the season in order to win. That’s a tall order when March rolls around.

Winner: Arizona

Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) reacts in the second half during the semifinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals – New York

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 1 Purdue

When these teams met in the regular season, Edey was dominant as Purdue rolled to a 19-point victory. I don’t expect a similar result this time around. Duke is a much better team right now and is playing very well defensively. If Mike Krzyzewski was still the head coach of the Blue Devils, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick the upset. I still think Edey is going to be problematic for Duke, though.

Winner: Purdue

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State

I don’t see Michigan State getting further than this point. The Spartans have to make shots at some point, which is something they haven’t done consistently this season. It’s going to be particularly difficult against Kansas State, which kept opponents to shooting just 41.9% from the field (30.1% from 3-point territory). I actually think the Wildcats have a favorable path to the Elite Eight.

Winner: Kansas State

Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr (5) celebrates after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 12 Drake vs. No. 1 Houston

This is a favorable matchup for Houston. While Drake shoots the ball well, it only ranks No. 98 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are going to have a difficult time scoring on the Cougars. Houston allows only 56.5 points per game and opponents shoot just 36.4% from the field (27.8% from 3-point territory). I expect the Cougars to get back to the Elite Eight for the third-straight year.

Winner: Houston

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas

Despite losing Chris Beard in the middle of the season, I’ve been impressed with Texas all season. The Longhorns are playing at a high level right now. It’s hard for me to pick against them. Sean Miller has become a head coach that I don’t trust come tournament time either. He hasn’t made it past the first weekend since 2017. I think Texas’ backcourt depth will be too much for Xavier.

Winner: Texas

UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) plays against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Kansas

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for UConn. Kansas allows its opponents to collect 34.8 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). The Huskies are going to be able to crash the boards against the Jayhawks. UConn has a deeper bench, with nine players averaging at least 13.2 minutes per game. I also question whether Bill Self is ready to coach again after his a health scare in the Big 12 tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA

I still don’t think Gonzaga has been challenged enough in conference play. Excluding Saint Mary’s, the Bulldogs haven’t played a team that ranked higher than No. 75 in KenPom’s rankings since Dec. 2. I think UCLA’s defense is up to the challenge of slowing down Gonzaga’s offense. I also think the Bruins will have the 2021 Final Four meeting between these teams in the back of their mind.

Winner: UCLA

Arizona Wildcats forward Azuolas Tubelis (10) looks to shoot against UCLA Bruins forward Kenneth Nwuba (14) during the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Elite Eight

South Regional final – Louisville, Ky.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Alabama

I’m not as high on Alabama as everyone else. The Crimson Tide don’t shoot the ball as well as people think – averaging just 44.6% from the field and 33.8% from 3-point territory. I think Arizona matches up very well with Alabama. The Wildcats have the length and superior rebounding ability to upset the Crimson Tide. I also question if Alabama has enough scoring depth, outside of Miller, to win it all. Arizona has had four different players score at least 24 points in a game. That usually translates well in the tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter gestures to his team during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final – New York

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Purdue

I have a feeling that this regional final is going to look much differently in a few weeks. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding almost every team in this region. However, if these teams meet in the Elite Eight, I expect Purdue to emerge victorious. I don’t think Kansas State is good enough in the paint to limit Edey’s production. If you can’t slow down Edey, you’re going to have a difficult time defeating the Boilermakers. I’m not confident in this pick at all, but I like Purdue to get to the Final Four.

Winner: Purdue

Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser (0) reacts after a three point basket during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Houston

I understand why people are hesitant to pick Houston after Marcus Sasser’s injury. However, the Cougars have a favorable path to get to this point, which will give Sasser time to get healthy. Even if he’s not 100%, I think Houston still has plenty of athleticism, depth, and defensive expertise to get back to the Final Four. The Cougars have had four different players score at least 20 points in a game. I also doubt that Texas can get to the Final Four with an interim head coach.

Winner: Houston

Connecticut Huskies guard R.J. Cole (1) looks to pass during the second half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 2 UCLA

If Jaylen Clark was healthy, I’d pick UCLA to win. I think the Bruins will have a difficult time without him, though. KenPom has UConn ranked No. 4, so it’s a vastly under seeded team in this tournament. That and Clark’s injury are why I like the Huskies to win this game. UConn ranks in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies also have the ability to make shots and get to the free throw line, which is going to be valuable against UCLA.

Winner: UConn

Final Four – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Purdue

I question if Purdue has enough scoring depth, outside of Edey, in order to win the national championship. Edey has led the Boilermakers in scoring in 24 of their 34 games. I also think Purdue’s inexperienced backcourt will be a problem at some point in the tournament. That’s why I’m not convinced that the Boilermakers are going to get to this point. I’m going to give the advantage to Arizona. The Wildcats have the length to match up with Edey in the paint. They also have an experienced roster, with their top six leading scorers being upperclassmen.

Winner: Arizona

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Houston

I actually wouldn’t rule out UConn winning this game. The Huskies are a much more athletic team than people think, and they have the ability to score. UConn has also fared well in the last 20 years when the Final Four has been in Texas. With this all but being a home game for Houston, I’m going to give the advantage to the Cougars. I think they’re a more complete team than UConn. Houston ranks in the top 12 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies are going to have a difficult time making shots against the Cougars’ stout defense.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

2023 National Championship – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Houston

I thought Arizona had what it takes to win the national championship last year. The problem was that the Wildcats ran into a defensive buzz saw in Houston in the Sweet 16. I see the same thing happening in this matchup. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country, maybe even the best. They also do a lot of things very well that usually translate to wins in March. Houston won the turnover margin by a ratio of 4.6 and collected an average of 12.8 offensive rebounds per game – ranking in the top 15 in the country in both categories.

If Sasser is healthy, which I’m expecting him to be, I don’t see a team that’s going to be able to slow down the Cougars. There’s a reason why they’re No. 1 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI rankings. Houston just has too much size, athleticism, and scoring depth. I think the Cougars can get adequate production from Jarace Walker, J’Wan Roberts, Jamal Shead, or Truman Mark even if Sasser isn’t 100% healthy.

Winner: Houston

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