2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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2023 college football season predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Musn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.”

– Eames, “Inception” (2010)

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart holds the trophy after winning the CFP national championship game against the TCU Horned Frogs at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure I’d be prepared to make my college football season predictions if it wasn’t for the recent conference realignment news. Truthfully, this season has snuck up on me. The news of Oregon and Washington heading to the Big Ten, and Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah going to the Big 12, got the juices flowing and made me eager for the start of the season. I’ve been hustling to get my research done for all Power 5 programs, and the top Group of 5 programs.  

The wait is finally over, though, because Week 1 technically starts this weekend. Even though the matchups aren’t particularly intriguing (aside from Notre Dame facing Navy in Ireland and Ohio playing San Diego State), I wanted to get my predictions finalized before any games were played. I didn’t want any of the results from this weekend to impact my outlook.

My immediate impression for this season is that there are some excellent storylines: Georgia is trying to become the first program to win three-consecutive national championships since Minnesota did it between 1934-36; the Pac-12 is arguably the most compelling Power 5 conference in the wake of its demise; Texas could really be back; Ohio State is trying to get back to being the top dog in the Big Ten; and many others. There’s also a lot of uncertainty at the top of college football, with several programs breaking in new starting quarterbacks.

Remember, we’ve also had plenty of conference realignment beginning this year at both the Power 5 and Group of 5 levels: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now in the Big 12; Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA joined the American; and Liberty, Jacksonville State, New Mexico State, and Sam Houston State joined the Conference USA. I don’t think we’re done with conference realignment either because we still haven’t seen the ramifications of the Pac-12’s demise trickle down to the Group of 5 level. 

There shouldn’t be any shortage of entertainment this season. 

Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners

Award	Winner
Heisman (most outstanding player)	QB Caleb Williams, USC
Maxwell (best player)	Caleb Williams, USC
Davey O’Brien (best quarterback)	Caleb Williams, USC
Doak Walker (best running back)	Blake Corum, Michigan
Fred Biletnikoff (best wide receiver)	Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Bronko Nagurski (defensive player of the year)	Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
Outland (best lineman)	T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
Butkus (best linebacker)	Jeremiah Trotter, Clemson
Jim Thorpe (best defensive back)	CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
Lou Groza (best kicker)	Ryan Coe, North Carolina

Price’s predicted major award winners

I know, I know, no player has won the Heisman Trophy twice since Archie Griffin won it in 1974 and 1975. My readers know that I hate picking chalk, but I think Williams is due to make history this season. Every quarterback in Lincoln Riley’s system has either put up better numbers each year in the system or the best numbers of their college careers. Williams is entering his third year in Riley’s system, dating back to their time at Oklahoma. The last quarterback we saw do that was Baker Mayfield, who won the Heisman in that third year. Williams is also a heavy favorite to win the award.

Michigan has relied heavily on its run game the last two seasons, with its top two rushers accounting for a combined 801 carries. I expect the same to happen this season. Remember, Corum rushed for almost 1,500 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. The only way he might not win the Doak Walker Award is if Michigan manages his workload and gives his backup the same amount of carries. There might be a new quarterback at Ohio State, but I don’t think that’s going to prevent Harrison Jr. from winning the Biletnikoff Award. He’s regarded as the best wide receiver prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft and I think the Ohio State coaching staff is going to find ways to get him the ball.

I had a difficult time giving the Outland Trophy to anyone but Fashanu. Not only is he expected to be the best offensive lineman in the country, but he’s going to pave the way for what should be an excellent rushing attack for Penn State. I struggled with the Lou Groza Award, but I eventually landed on Coe. North Carolina ought to have one of the best offenses in the country and should move the ball with ease, so Coe should see plenty of kicking opportunities.

As for the Nagurski Trophy, I think Verse should be considered the favorite. He’s arguably the best pass rusher in college football after accumulating nine sacks and 17 tackles for loss last season. I couldn’t think of any linebackers with a better chance of winning the Butkus Award than Trotter. He showed a lot of promise last year and I expect him to improve. The best defensive back in the country is arguably McKinstry, so he had to be my pick to win the Jim Thorpe Award. When it comes to defensive backs, I have a lot of trust in Nick Saban to develop them.

Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) throws a pass during the first half of the 2022 Orange Bowl against the Tennessee Volunteers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

ACC

	Team	Record
1	Clemson*	11-2 (7-1)
2	Florida State	10-3 (7-1)
3	North Carolina	10-2 (6-2)
4	Duke	9-3 (5-3)
5	Miami	8-4 (5-3)
6	Louisville	7-5 (5-3)
7	Syracuse	7-5 (4-4)
8	NC State	7-5 (4-4)
9	Pitt	6-6 (4-4)
10	Virginia Tech	7-5 (3-5)
11	Wake Forest	5-7 (3-5)
12	Georgia Tech	4-8 (2-6)
13	Boston College	5-7 (1-7)
14	Virginia	2-10 (0-8)

Price’s ACC projections (* conference championship winner)

It actually wasn’t as easy to pick Clemson to win the ACC this season as opposed to previous seasons. There’s a lot of uncertainty facing the Tigers. Mainly, how much will Cade Klubnik improve as a quarterback and whether he’ll mesh with new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. However, Clemson should still have the most talented team in the conference. The Tigers also benefit from playing Florida State, North Carolina, and Notre Dame at home. I’m not convinced Clemson can make the College Football Playoff, but a trip to the Orange Bowl is a reasonable expectation. 

If any team is going to beat out Clemson to win the ACC, I think it’s Florida State. The Seminoles are returning a lot of talent from a team that won 10 games last year. However, I’m not ready to believe that head coach Mike Norvell has the program ready to take the next step. North Carolina is certainly talented enough to win the conference, but I have reservations about its defense, which allowed 31.3 points per game last year against FBS competition. Having Drake Maye at quarterback will put the Tar Heels in a good spot to win a lot of games, though. 

I’m going out on a limb and picking Duke to improve from last year, even though its schedule is going to be incredibly difficult. I think head coach Mike Elko has the Blue Devils heading in the right direction. We’re going to find out just how good of a coach Mario Cristobal is, but there’s too much talent on Miami’s roster for the team to be as bad as it was last year. Even though I’m high on Jeff Brohm as a head coach, I think Louisville’s quarterback situation could hold the team back. I’m not convinced that Syracuse is going to improve much after sneaking up on the ACC last year.

I don’t know how good NC State or Virginia Tech are going to be, but both teams have manageable non-conference schedules. I think that’ll propel them to bowl eligibility. This could be a long season for Pitt. The Panthers have a brutal non-conference schedule and are losing a lot of production from last year. I think Pat Narduzzi deserves the benefit of the doubt, though. Dave Clawson and Wake Forest will likely have a difficult time getting to an eighth-straight bowl game without quarterback Sam Hartman.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12

	Team	Record
1	Texas*	11-2 (8-1)
2	Texas Tech	9-4 (7-2)
3	Kansas State	9-3 (6-3)
4	Oklahoma	9-3 (6-3)
5	TCU	8-4 (5-4)
6	UCF	7-5 (5-4)
7	Baylor	7-5 (5-4)
8	Oklahoma State	8-4 (5-4)
9	Kansas	7-5 (4-5)
10	West Virginia	6-6 (4-5)
11	BYU	5-7 (3-6)
12	Houston	4-8 (2-7)
13	Cincinnati	4-8 (2-7)
14	Iowa State	3-9 (1-8)

Price’s Big 12 projections (* conference championship winner)

I realize that college football fans are fatigued with Texas. Time and time again the Longhorns have entered the season with so much hype only to fall on their faces by the end. However, I think this team is different. Steve Sarkisian has done an excellent job assembling talent. I think Texas has the right pieces both on the perimeter and in the trenches to make a run at the Big 12 championship. I also like the options the Longhorns have at quarterback in Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning. If either of them play at a high level, Texas has a chance to make the Playoff. 

I’ve been talking myself into Texas Tech recently. The Red Raiders are returning a lot of production from last year. They also benefit from playing Kansas State and TCU at home. This will likely be Texas Tech’s best chance to win the Big 12 since the Mike Leach era. I expect Kansas State to be near the top of the conference despite the departure of running back Deuce Vaughn. The Wildcats might have the best offensive line and defensive line combination in the Big 12, besides Texas. Quarterback Will Howard improved a lot last year, too. Kansas State has a good chance to defend the conference title. 

I expect Oklahoma to show improvement in Brent Venables’ second season. The Sooners have too much talent to finish below .500 again. TCU likely takes a step back (maybe even further than I think) after so much going its way last year and losing a lot of production from that team. UCF will have its growing pains in Year 1 in the Big 12. The Knights are a talented team and Gus Malzahn is a proven head coach, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor finishes lower than seventh, but I’m banking on Dave Aranda to turn things around. I’m very uncertain about Oklahoma State, but its non-conference schedule is manageable. Mike Gundy also seems to surprise everyone when expectations are low.

Kansas won’t be able to surprise anyone this year. However, I doubt the Jayhawks regress much. Jalon Daniels is a very underrated quarterback and Kansas is returning a lot of production from last year. I’m more optimistic about West Virginia than I should be, even though I have no trust in Neal Brown and his staff. The Mountaineers are returning several key players in the trenches and have a good backfield. I feel like that should be enough to get WVU to bowl eligibility. After the recent news out of the program, I’ll be very surprised if Iowa State doesn’t finish near the bottom of the Big 12.

Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) stiff arms Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back Malcolm Hartzog (13) in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten

	East Division	Record	West Division	Record
1	Michigan*	12-1 (8-1)	Wisconsin	10-3 (7-2)
2	Ohio State	11-1 (8-1)	Iowa	9-3 (6-3)
3	Penn State	10-2 (7-2)	Minnesota	7-5 (5-4)
4	Maryland	8-4 (5-4)	Illinois	6-6 (4-5)
5	Michigan State	6-6 (4-5)	Nebraska	6-6 (4-5)
6	Indiana	3-9 (1-8)	Purdue	5-7 (3-6)
7	Rutgers	3-9 (1-8)	Northwestern	2-10 (0-9)

Price’s Big Ten projections (* conference championship winner)

Michigan has proven the last two seasons that it runs the Big Ten. I see no reason to think otherwise this season. The Wolverines are returning a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy and leading rusher Corum. They also have the right pieces in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Michigan benefits from playing Ohio State at home, too. I’m not convinced that the Wolverines will finish the regular season undefeated like last year, but I expect them to win the Big Ten and be in the Playoff conversation for a third-straight season. 

Ohio State has what it takes to win the Big Ten from a talent standpoint. I’m not sure I trust Ryan Day to do it, though. The Buckeyes have been passed over by Michigan recently. Plus, Ohio State is breaking in a new quarterback and I don’t know what to expect. The next team that I think can win the Big Ten is Penn State. This could be the best collection of talent the Nittany Lions have had in recent years. Penn State is in great shape in the trenches, backfield, and secondary. My concern with the Nittany Lions is their uncertainty at the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

I’m expecting Luke Fickell to have a smooth transition in his first year at Wisconsin. There will be growing pains, but Fickell brought in a nice haul of players from the transfer portal. The Badgers also benefit from being in the West division. Maryland actually has some talent on its roster, but it’s in one of the most difficult divisions in college football. The Terrapins should consider it a success if they get to eight wins. I’m not sure how good Iowa or Minnesota will be this season, but their schedules are manageable. 

I’m tired of Bret Bielema proving me wrong every year, which is why I have Illinois getting to bowl eligibility. I’m very curious to see how much success Matt Rhule has in his first year at Nebraska. I think he’s inheriting some talent and he brought in a good transfer portal class. Mel Tucker likely has to get Michigan State to bowl eligibility to have a chance to keep his job. That’s not out of the question since the Spartans face Washington, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, and Penn State all at home. I expect Purdue to struggle in Ryan Walters’ first season as head coach. 

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts to a touchdown against the Utah Utes in the first quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 (RIP)

	Team	Record
1	USC*	11-2 (8-1)
2	Washington	10-3 (7-2)
3	Utah	10-2 (7-2)
4	Oregon	10-2 (7-2)
5	Oregon State	9-3 (6-3)
6	UCLA	8-4 (5-4)
7	Washington State	6-6 (4-5)
8	Arizona	6-6 (4-5)
9	Cal	5-7 (3-6)
10	Arizona State	4-8 (2-7)
11	Colorado	3-9 (1-8)
12	Stanford	2-10 (0-9)

Price’s Pac-12 projections (* conference championship winner)

It’s a shame that in the last year of the Pac-12 (as we know it) the conference is at its most interesting. I had a difficult time picking against USC to win the Pac-12 this season. The Trojans are returning the Heisman Trophy winner from last year in Williams. They also return a lot of production and brought in a strong transfer portal class. My only reservation is USC’s defense, which struggled at times a season ago. At the end of the day, the Trojans are going to be a talented team. I also trust Riley, who’s never won fewer than 10 games in a full season as a head coach. 

The top of the Pac-12 is loaded with quality teams in Washington, Utah, and Oregon. Each of those teams are returning great quarterbacks and have enough talent to win a lot of games. Each of those teams also play each other, too, including USC. It’s going to be a gauntlet for the teams at the top of the conference. I give the slight edge to the Huskies as the team that’s going to be in the Pac-12 Championship because they get Oregon and Utah at home. However, if either the Utes or Ducks are in the conference championship, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. 

I also wouldn’t sleep on Oregon State as a team that could win the Pac-12. Jonathan Smith has done an excellent job building up the Beavers, and they made an upgrade at quarterback by grabbing D.J. Uiagalelei from the transfer portal. I expect UCLA to regress a little bit, but Chip Kelly has that program in a good spot. I think the Bruins will be fine. Arizona and Washington State have what it takes to finish higher in the Pac-12 standings. Both teams are going to be scrappy, but I’m not convinced they have the horses on their roster to hang with the top teams in the conference.

With the exception of Stanford, I think the bottom of the Pac-12 is somewhat strong. Cal and Arizona State have enough talent to get to bowl eligibility, but I need to see it happen. Everyone is going to be interested in watching Deion Sanders in his first year as Colorado’s head coach. The Buffaloes have some talent after hauling in the No. 1 transfer portal class. I just have a hard time seeing Sanders turning things around there in a single offseason after the program went 1-11 last year. 

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jase McClellan (2) runs the ball against Kansas State Wildcats Kansas State Wildcats safety VJ Payne (19) during the second half in the 2022 Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

SEC

	East Division	Record	West Division	Record
1	Georgia	12-1 (8-0)	Alabama*	12-1 (7-1)
2	Tennessee	9-3 (5-3)	LSU	10-2 (6-2)
3	Florida	6-6 (4-4)	Texas A&M	10-2 (6-2)
4	Kentucky	7-5 (3-5)	Ole Miss	8-4 (4-4)
5	South Carolina	6-6 (3-5)	Arkansas	7-5 (3-5)
6	Missouri	4-8 (1-7)	Mississippi State	7-5 (3-5)
7	Vanderbilt	5-7 (1-7)	Auburn	6-6 (2-6)

Price’s SEC projections (* conference championship winner)

I went back and forth on which team to pick to win the SEC. I eventually landed on Alabama. Contrary to what some people think, I don’t believe the Nick Saban dynasty is over. The Crimson Tide had some bad luck last year — losing two games by a total of four points. This Alabama team will likely have a formidable rushing attack, which shouldn’t be overlooked. The best Saban-coached teams had run-heavy offenses. I also think Saban revamping his coaching staff by hiring Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele as his coordinators could rejuvenate the Crimson Tide. 

I might not have Georgia winning the SEC, but I’m still very high on the Bulldogs. They have a roster loaded with talent. I have no doubt that Kirby Smart will just reload after losing so many players to the NFL last year. I think the pundits are a little too high on LSU entering this season. The Tigers were eight points away from being a 7-5 team last year. I expect LSU to progress under Brian Kelly, but I think the program is at least another year from potentially being a national championship contender. 

I’m going to bet on Jimbo Fisher to get Texas A&M back on track this season. He’s too good of a head coach and the Aggies have too much talent to have another disastrous season like they did last year. I don’t anticipate Tennessee to drop off too much despite losing some highly-regarded players to the NFL. Josh Heupel has the Volunteers in a good spot right now, and I think Joe Milton will be a solid quarterback. Ole Miss has a chance to finish higher in the West. The Rebels lost some close games last year and return a lot of production from that team. I also wouldn’t doubt Lane Kiffin.

Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina are all in the same boat. They’re teams with enough talent to win a lot of games, but have incredibly difficult schedules. I wanted to give each of those teams more wins, but struggled to find them. Getting quarterback Devin Leary out of the transfer portal is going to help Kentucky a lot this season. He’s a solid player that should help the Wildcats be competitive. I expect both Mississippi State and Auburn to have growing pains this season since they both have first-year head coaches. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman sings the Notre Dame Alma Mater with his players after the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeated the UNLV Rebels at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame

Projected record: 9-3

I don’t think Notre Dame has received enough credit for how it finished last season. Remember, the Fighting Irish started 0-2, with losses to Ohio State and Marshall, and it felt like they were in for a long season. However, they rebounded and won nine of their last 11 games. Notre Dame is returning a lot of production from last year, and also made a big splash in the transfer portal by landing Hartman. The Fighting Irish have a good chance of making an appearance in a New Year’s Six bowl game, but they have a difficult schedule. They have road games at NC State, Duke, Louisville, and Clemson, along with home games against Ohio State and USC. I think this could be a scenario where Notre Dame is a better team than it was last season, but it doesn’t show up in the win column. 

UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) celebrates a touchdown in the first half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

Group of 5 representative in the New Year’s Six

Pick: UTSA
Projected record: 11-2

Everyone is going to pick Tulane to be the Group of 5 representative in a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. I wanted to go against the grain and pick UTSA, though. Jeff Traylor has done an excellent job building up the Roadrunners – winning 30 games the last three seasons. UTSA also returns a lot of experience and production on both sides of the ball. The Roadrunners might also have the best quarterback at the Group of 5 level in Frank Harris, who’s thrown for 71 touchdowns and ran for over 1,600 yards the last three years. Another reason why I like UTSA’s chances of making it to a New Year’s Six bowl game is its move to the American, which will garner more respect from the playoff committee. Seven times in the last nine years has the Group of 5 representative been from the American.

New Year’s Six projections

Bowl game	Team	Team
Sugar (College Football Playoff semifinal)	No. 4 Ohio State	No. 1 Alabama
Rose (College Football Playoff semifinal)	No. 3 Georgia	No. 2 Michigan
Cotton (at-large vs at-large)	Oregon	Texas
Orange (ACC vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC	LSU	Clemson
Fiesta (at-large vs at-large)	Penn State	USC
Peach (at-large vs at-large)	UTSA	Florida State

Price’s projections for the New Year’s Six bowl games

College Football Playoff National Championship

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 1 Alabama

Since not many teams at the top of college football are returning quality starting quarterbacks, I think that means that the teams that run the ball effectively will be in a better position to win. The two teams that I think will be the best in that department are Alabama and Michigan. They’re two of the most complete teams heading into the season. The Crimson Tide and the Wolverines should have imposing rushing attacks, solid defenses, and plenty of talent elsewhere on their rosters. I’m also not going to shortchange either team at the quarterback position. McCarthy performed well for Michigan last year as a sophomore. Alabama has yet to name a starter, but I think it’ll be fine wither either Jalen Milroe or Tyler Buchner. Both players were highly recruited out of high school.

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban looks on against the LSU Tigers during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Let me take you back to late Sept. 2015. Alabama hadn’t won a national championship in two years and sustained a loss to Ole Miss at home in Week 3. Everyone thought the Saban dynasty was over at the time. The Crimson Tide then won 12 games in a row, including the national championship. This year feels similar to 2015. Alabama hasn’t won a national championship in two years and everyone, again, thinks the Saban dynasty is over. I, obviously, don’t share that opinion.

I think the pundits are putting too much stock in the Crimson Tide’s quarterback battle. They’re not the only team at the top of college football breaking in a new starter. Plus, Alabama has won national championships in the Saban era despite not having a great quarterback. Those teams ran the ball effectively, controlled the time of possession, prevented opponents from scoring too many points, and had a quarterback that limited turnovers. I expect the Crimson Tide to return to their roots and play that way this season, which is why I’m picking them to win it all.

Winner: Alabama

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9 Group of 5 teams that could make a New Year’s Six bowl game in 2023

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m not following you, I’m looking for you. There’s a big difference.”

– Martin Stett, “The Conversation” (1974)

Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve had a tumultuous last few weeks in regards to conference realignment, leading to the demise of the Pac-12. That’s where everyone’s attention, including myself, has been recently. It’s to the point that I think people have forgotten that college football games will be played a little over a week from now. It’s hard to believe, right? 

I wanted to start previewing the season by writing a blog post about which Group of 5 teams have a legitimate chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. 

This topic might not draw a lot of interest, but Group of 5 teams have actually had success in the New Year’s Six since getting a guaranteed spot in 2014. Boise State beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl in 2014, Houston beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl in 2015, UCF beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl in 2017, and Tulane beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last year. Cincinnati even snuck into the College Football Playoff in 2021, and almost beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl in 2020. 

So, which Group of 5 teams could find themselves in the New Year’s Six? I did my best to narrow it down to nine teams (of 64) Remember, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now Power 5 schools, but Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State are making the jump from FCS to Group of 5. 

American Athletic Conference

Florida Atlantic Owls wide receiver LaJohntay Wester (1) celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver Tony Johnson (16) during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Atlantic Owls
2022 record: 5-7
Returning production: 83% (68% offensively, 99% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83
Transfer portal rank: No. 79
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

Say what you want about Tom Herman as a head coach, but he had a lot of success when he was previously at the Group of 5 level at Houston. Florida Atlantic also ranks in the top five in all of college football in returning production, which includes its top two rushers, four of its top five pass catchers, and a stout offensive line. One question mark is the quarterback position, but the Owls picked up two Power 5 quarterbacks in the transfer portal in Michael Johnson (Penn State) and Casey Thompson (Nebraska and Texas). FAU has also recruited well in recent years, so Herman should have a talented roster. The Owls have a difficult schedule, featuring non-conference road games against Clemson and Illinois, but I think their conference slate is manageable. I wouldn’t count this team out.

Memphis Tigers tight end Caden Prieskorn (86) and wide receiver Eddie Lewis (18) react after a touchdown during the first half against the North Alabama Lions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis Tigers
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 63% (67% offensively, 59% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.52
Transfer portal rank: No. 73
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Memphis has fallen off since Mike Norvell’s departure since 2020 – posting a record of 21-15 the last three seasons. I’m not ready to start doubting the Tigers, who’ve ranked near the top of The American almost every season since the conference was formed in 2013. One of the main reasons why I like Memphis’ chances to be competitive is because it’s one of 17 teams at the Group of 5 level that returns its head coach, both coordinators, and starting quarterback. Not other team in The American can say that. I think that’s significant because the Tigers also return a good amount of production on both sides of the ball. Memphis has a winnable game against Missouri at a neutral site in Week 4, and get Tulane at home a few weeks later. Those two games will likely determine the Tigers’ season.

Southern Methodist Mustangs tight end RJ Maryland (82) celebrates a touchdown against the Tulane Green Wave during the first half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

SMU Mustangs
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 85.32
Transfer portal rank: No. 15
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I think SMU was much better last season than its record would indicate. The Mustangs lost four games by a combined 18 points despite averaging 37.2 points per game. SMU lost a bit of production, including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, but it also brought in one of the top transfer portal classes. There’s a lot riding on presumed starting quarterback Preston Stone, but he ought to have a good supporting class around him. The Mustangs return their top three rushers and five of their top seven pass catchers. They also bolstered their offensive line by bringing in four transfers from the Power 5 level. SMU’s schedule won’t make things easy, though. The Mustangs have road games against Oklahoma, TCU, and Memphis. This team still has enough talent to make some noise, though.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz during the first quarter against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane Mean Green
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 71% (73% offensively, 68% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.93
Transfer portal rank: No. 83
Vegas projected win total: 9.5

With Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF now in the Big 12, I think Tulane is prepared to take the mantle as the team to beat in The American. We actually saw it happen last year. The Green Wave finished 12-2, won The American, and even defeated USC in the Cotton Bowl. They lost their leading rusher, top two wide receivers, and tackler from last year’s team, but they still have a lot of production returning, including quarterback Michael Pratt and four starters on the offensive line. I also think Tulane’s schedule is manageable. The Green Wave get Ole Miss, UAB, and UTSA at home, and the only road game they won’t have a talent advantage will likely be against Memphis. If they can beat Ole Miss in Week 2, they’re going to be in a good spot to return to a New Year’s Six bowl game.

UTSA Roadrunners wide receiver Zakhari Franklin (4) runs for a touchdown in the second half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

UTSA Roadrunners
2022 record: 11-3
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.82
Transfer portal rank: No. 93
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

UTSA might not return much overall production, but there’s a strong argument to be made that this team has the best quarterback/head coach combination in The American. Jeff Traylor has a record of 30-10 in three seasons with the Roadrunners, including winning at least 11 games each of the last two years. Three-year starting quarterback Frank Harris has also completed 67% of his passes, averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and thrown 71 touchdowns in his career. That’s not even counting leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and three of the team’s top four receivers also return. UTSA has a brutal schedule, though, with road games at Houston, Tennessee, FAU, and Tulane. As long as the Roadrunners have Traylor and Harris, they’re going to have a chance to win a lot of games.

MAC

Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) throws a pass against the San Diego State Aztecs during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo Rockets
2022 record: 9-5
Returning production: 77% (82% offensively, 72% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.99
Transfer portal rank: No. 108 (tied)
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I’d keep an eye on Toledo this season. The Rockets finished last season on a high note – winning seven of their last 10 games – and averaged 31.1 points per game during that stretch. Toledo ranks No. 11 in the country in returning production, including its starting quarterback Dequan Finn, top four leading rushers, top two pass catchers, four starters along the offensive line, and good players from a solid defense. Head coach Jason Candle has also had continuity on his staff, with all of his coordinators entering their fourth season. I also think the Rockets have a manageable schedule. They get Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois at home, and have a winnable road game against Illinois in Week 1. It feels like this is going to be Candle’s best team since he took over at Toledo.

Mountain West

Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) hands off to running back George Holani (24) during the first half against the Utah State Aggies at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State Broncos
2022 record: 10-4
Returning production: 67% (78% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.36
Transfer portal rank: No. 85
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

I don’t care how long it’s been since Boise State was on the national stage. I’m always going to include the Broncos on this list. Boise State actually had a very quiet 10-win season last year, with wins over San Diego State, Fresno State, and Air Force, before losing to Fresno State in a rematch in the Mountain West championship. The Broncos also return a good amount of production, including starting quarterback Taylen Green, their top three rushers, four of their top five receivers, and three starters on the offensive line. Head coach Andy Avalos has also proven that he can field a solid defense. The problem for Boise State is its schedule, which features road trips to Washington, San Diego State, and Memphis, and a home game against UCF just in the first half of the season.

Sun Belt

South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Carter Bradley (2) sets to pass in the first half against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

South Alabama Jaguars
2022 record: 10-3
Returning production: 77% (71% offensively, 82% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.48
Transfer portal rank: No. 78
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

South Alabama has a chance to have a special season in head coach Kane Wommack’s third year with the program. The Jaguars rank No. 13 in returning production from a team that won 10 games last year. That includes their starting quarterback, top three leading rushers, five of their top seven pass catchers, and six of their best defensive players. South Alabama is going to have one of the tougher schedules in college football, though. The Jaguars have road games at Tulane, Oklahoma State, James Madison, and Troy, and then get Louisiana and Marshall at home. It’s going to be difficult for South Alabama to repeat its success from last season, but it’s going to have opportunities to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee with that schedule. That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Troy Trojans linebacker K.J. Robertson (7) runs after the interception against UTSA Roadrunners in the third quarter at Exploria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Trojans
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 60% (64% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.27
Transfer portal rank: No. 82
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Troy is considered the favorite to win the Sun Belt and rightfully so. The Trojans won 12 games last year in Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach, and hung tough against Ole Miss and Appalachian State. They could’ve finished with an even better record. Troy also returns a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including starting quarterback Gunnar Watson and two of its top three rushers. The main reason why I think the Trojans have a chance to get to a New Year’s Six bowl game is their schedule. They have two tough road games at Kansas State and Army in non-conference play, but they get James Madison, South Alabama, and Louisiana at home. Those last three games will likely decide the Sun Belt championship, which is played at the home stadium of the top team in the conference.

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