2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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New Year’s Six picks

Movie quote of the day:

“Well, the boss isn’t always right. But, he’s always the boss.”

— Rudolf Abel, “Bridge of Spies” (2015)

Week 14 record: 6-4 (60%)
2023 record: 117-49 (70.4%)
All-time record: 1,053-510 (67.3%)

Friday:

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates a first down in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 9 Missouri (10-2) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (11-1)
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Line: Ohio State -3.5
Over/under: 48.5

It’s very telling that the line of this game continues to shift in Ohio State’s favor. The Buckeyes have key players expected to play like Emeka Egbuka and Denzel Burke, and possibly even Marvin Harrison Jr. I also doubt Missouri is good enough defensively to win. The Tigers have allowed 23.5 points per game, 5.7 yards per play, and 144.7 rushing yards per game against Power 5 competition.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Missouri 21

Saturday:

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) hands off the ball to running back Kaytron Allen (13) during the first half against Michigan State at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 11 Ole Miss (10-2) vs. No. 10 Penn State (10-2)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
Line: Penn State -3.5
Over/under: 48.5

I don’t think this is a favorable matchup for Ole Miss. The Rebels have struggled defensively against Power 5 competition — allowing 26.4 points per game and 158.5 rushing yards per game (4.1 yards per carry). Penn State has an excellent rushing attack, which averages 186.7 yards per game (4.6 yards per carry). I expect the Nittany Lions to run the ball effectively and keep Ole Miss’ offense off the field.

Prediction: Penn State 31, Ole Miss 24

Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) celebrates scoring a touchdown with offensive lineman Earnest Greene III (71) in the first quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 6 Georgia (12-1) vs. No. 5 Florida State (13-0)
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
Line: Georgia -16.5
Over/under: 43.5

I don’t know what to expect from Florida State after getting left out of the College Football Playoff. I doubt the Seminoles win this game, though. They played poorly offensively after the injury to Jordan Travis — averaging just 20 points per game, 3.6 yards per play, and 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. Georgia is the much better team right now and I expect it to win this game comfortably.

Prediction: Georgia 34, Florida State 17

Monday:

Oregon Ducks tight end Terrance Ferguson (3) celebrates with team mates after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
No. 23 Liberty (13-0) vs. No. 8 Oregon (11-2)
State Farm Stadium
Glendale, Ariz.
Line: Oregon -17.5
Over/under: 66.5

I don’t know if Liberty is that good of a team. The Flames have one of the worst strength of schedules in the country. I’m also not convinced that they’re good enough defensively to win this game — allowing 27.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play in their last seven games. That won’t bode well against Oregon’s offense, which averages 44.2 points per game and 7.5 yards per play. Bo Nix is expected to play, too.

Prediction: Oregon 45, Liberty 24

Michigan Wolverines defensive back DJ Waller Jr. (13) and defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) celebrate after a turnover during the second half of the Big Ten Championship game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game
No. 4 Alabama (12-1) vs. No. 1 Michigan (13-0)
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.
Line: Michigan -1.5
Over/under: 44.5

Michigan hasn’t given me a reason to trust it to win this game. The Wolverines have fallen short in the Playoff the last two years. With a spot in the national championship on the line, I give the advantage to Nick Saban. Alabama ended the season on a strong note — averaging 33.8 points per game, 6.8 yards per play, and 178 rushing yards per game in its last six games against Power 5 competition.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Michigan 20

Texas Longhorns linebacker Morice Blackwell Jr. (37) celebrates with teammates during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 3 Texas (12-1) vs. No. 2 Washington (13-0)
Caesars Superdome
New Orleans
Line: Texas -4.5
Over/under: 62.5

I’ve picked against Washington many times and have been proven wrong each time, but I think its luck will run out. Texas holds a few advantages in this matchup. The Huskies’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Longhorns’ defense is excellent against the run — allowing just 80.8 yards per game. Michael Penix Jr. will make plays through the air, but I doubt it’ll be enough to will Washington to victory.

Prediction: Texas 38, Washington 28

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College football Week 14 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“We bury our sins here, Dave. We wash them clean.”

– Jimmy Markum, “Mystic River” (2003)

Week 13 record: 7-5 (58.3%)
2023 record: 111-45 (71.1%)
All-time record: 1,047-506 (67.4%)

Friday:

Liberty Flames defensive back Brandon Bishop (6) intercepts the ball from the UTEP Miners offense during the first half at Sun Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports

Conference USA Championship
New Mexico State (10-3) at No. 24 Liberty (12-0)
Williams Stadium
Lynchburg, Va.
Line: Liberty -10.5
Over/under: 56.5

New Mexico State has been playing much better in recent weeks and Jerry Kill is an underrated head coach. I doubt it can keep up with Liberty, though. The Flames have one of the better offenses in the country – averaging 40.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play, and 295.4 rushing yards per game. Liberty has a chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl game, so I expect it to show up this week.

Prediction: Liberty 38, New Mexico State 24

Saturday:

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12 Championship
No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. No. 7 Texas (11-1)
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Line: Texas -14.5
Over/under: 54.5

This is going to be a difficult matchup for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys lean heavily on Ollie Gordon and their run game. The strength of Texas’ defense is its front seven, though. The Longhorns have allowed just 85 rushing yards per game (2.9 yards per carry). If Gordon can’t get going, I highly doubt Alan Bowman can lead Oklahoma State to victory with his arm.

Prediction: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 20

Toledo Rockets head coach Jason Candle directs his players during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

MAC Championship
Miami (Ohio) (10-2) vs. Toledo (11-1)
Ford Field
Detroit
Line: Toledo -7.5
Over/under: 43.5

I’m surprised that Toledo is such a heavy favorite to win this game. Miami (Ohio) has a great defense – allowing just 16.3 points per game – and it played the Rockets tough in the regular season. I doubt the RedHawks’ offense, which averaged just 23.7 points per game in conference play, can outscore Toledo’s offense. I think Miami (Ohio) keeps it close, but the Rockets should get the win.

Prediction: Toledo 24, Miami (Ohio) 20

Boise State Broncos cornerback Kaonohi Kaniho (14) and Boise State Broncos safety Rodney Robinson (4) celebrate during the second half against the Air Force Falcons at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Mountain West Championship
Boise State (7-5) at UNLV (9-3)
Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas
Line: Boise State -2.5
Over/under: 58.5

I don’t think UNLV is getting enough credit heading into this game. The Rebels have a very good offense, which averages 34.7 points per game, 6.1 yards per play, and 187.8 rushing yards per game, and ranks in the top 20 in turnover margin. I also think UNLV’s defense can contain Boise State’s run game. If the Broncos have to rely on Taylen Green to make plays with his arm, I doubt they can win.

Prediction: UNLV 31, Boise State 28

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart reacts on the sideline in the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

SEC Championship
No. 1 Georgia (12-0) vs. No. 8 Alabama (11-1)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
Line: Georgia -6.5
Over/under: 54.5

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Alabama. Georgia’s defense has been vulnerable against the run – allowing a minimum of 130 yards on the ground five times in its last eight games. The Crimson Tide’s run game has averaged 179.5 yards per game (4.4 yards per carry) in its last nine games. I think Alabama will be able to run the ball effectively and keep Georgia’s offense off the field.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Georgia 24

Tulane Green Wave safety Kam Pedescleaux (8) celebrates forcing a fumble against the UTSA Roadrunners during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

American Athletic Conference Championship
SMU (10-2) at No. 22 Tulane (11-1)
Yulman Stadium
New Orleans
Line: Tulane -3.5
Over/under: 47.5

I really like the way SMU has been playing the last few weeks, which is why I’m picking the upset. The Mustangs have won their last eight games by a combined score of 367-136. Tulane’s offense has struggled in its last four games – averaging just 22.8 points per game. The Green Wave’s defense might be able to contain SMU’s offense, but I doubt they can score enough points to win.

Prediction: SMU 28, Tulane 20

Troy Trojans wide receiver Jabre Barber (1) runs after a catch against the Army Black Knights during the first half at Michie Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Sun Belt Championship
Appalachian State (8-4) at Troy (10-2)
Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, Ala.
Line: Troy -5.5
Over/under: 52.5

I don’t like picking against Appalachian State in big games like this one, but I think Troy is the more complete team. The Trojans have a balanced offense and the best scoring defense in the Sun Belt, which allows just 16.7 points per game. I also think Troy will be able to move the ball effectively on Appalachian State’s defense, which is allowing 27.8 points per game in road games.

Prediction: Troy 31, Appalachian State 24

Florida State Seminoles running back Trey Benson (3) rushes with the ball during the first half against the Florida Gators at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 25, 2023. Mandatory credit: Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun

ACC Championship
No. 14 Louisville (10-2) vs. No. 4 Florida State (12-0)
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, N.C.
Line: Florida State -2.5
Over/under: 47.5

I remain unconvinced that Florida State is one of the best teams in the country without Jordan Travis. The Seminoles don’t look the same without him. Louisville has one of the better offenses in the country – averaging 33 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. I don’t think Florida State can score enough points without Travis. The Cardinals should win this game if they take care of the ball.

Prediction: Louisville 27, Florida State 20

Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten Championship
No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 16 Iowa (10-2)
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis
Line: Michigan -21.5
Over/under: 34.5

A lot will have to go right for Iowa in order for it to win this game. The Hawkeyes have one of the worst offenses in the country – averaging just 18 points per game and 4.0 yards per play. Iowa will likely have to force a lot of turnovers and score on those turnovers in order to pull off the upset. I don’t see that happening. With a spot in the Playoff on the line, I expect Michigan to be ready to play.

Prediction: Michigan 28, Iowa 7

Friday/Game of the week:

Oregon Ducks wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) celebrates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 Championship (RIP)
No. 5 Oregon (11-1) vs. No. 3 Washington (12-0)
Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas
Line: Oregon -9.5
Over/under: 65.5

I thought Oregon was the better team the last time these teams played. My opinion hasn’t changed, either, even though Washington got the win. The Ducks have looked like one of the best teams in the country in their last six games – beating opponents by a combined score of 252-96. I also think the Huskies are due for a loss since they’ve won their last eight games by a combined 49 points.

Prediction: Oregon 41, Washington 27

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Don’t rule out Oregon State, Washington State joining the Big 12 and changing the college football landscape forever

Movie quote of the day:

“I hate her. In fact, the day you broke up with her I marked that down on my calendar as a day of rejoicement. I’m going to celebrate it with a cake with her face on it, but instead of eating it, we smash it.”

– Stainer, “She’s Out of My League” (2010)

Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

I was ready to believe that the conference realignment buzz was slowing down. I was under the impression that all that was left to determine was which school The American would add to replace SMU and the fate of Oregon State and Washington State.

However, the conference realignment buzz has cranked back up again, specifically in regards to Oregon State and Washington State. 

The next hearing in the Oregon State/Washington State lawsuit against the Pac-12 is officially set for Nov 14. The hearing will be about who gets control of the Pac-12 while the parties prepare for trial. It could be pivotal for the fate of OSU/WSU.https://t.co/gxnZ4DDITN

— Amanda Christovich (@achristovichh) September 29, 2023

A few weeks ago, those two schools filed a legal complaint against the Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, seeking a temporary restraining order to protect the future of the conference. The basis for this decision comes because Oregon State and Washington State believe that the 10 members that are leaving won’t have the conference’s best interest at heart, even going so far as to believe that those members will vote to dissolve the Pac-12. Basically, Oregon State and Washington State want full control of the conference’s future. A hearing on the matter is slated for Nov. 14. 

This puts those two schools in a precarious situation. As it stands, the Pac-12 champion is going to have a guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff next year. The new format is going to have six guaranteed spots for conference champions (each of the Power 5 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion) and six wild cards. It’s important to know that the 6+6 format isn’t set after next season, and the the CFP management committee has yet to determine if the format will stay the same or change after the Pac-12 lost 10 of its members back in the summer. In fact, the committee punted on making a decision the issue recently. 

Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jaden Robinson (4) breaks up a pass intended for Washington State Cougars wide receiver Josh Kelly (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State and Washington State have a clear path to the CFP unless the format changes, even though they’re the only remaining members in the Pac-12. That will eventually change because the NCAA has a requirement that an FBS conference needs at least eight members, but there’s a two-year grace period. That means ESPN might have to pay about $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State, and potentially to schools like Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, etc. 

Things could obviously change, though. The committee could eventually determine that the Pac-12 will lose its guaranteed spot in the CFP. The problem with that is that there’s no precedent for it. Remember, the old Big East/The American lost its guaranteed spot only because the BCS was scrapped and the CFP was formed, and the powers that be determined there wouldn’t be guaranteed spots in the new postseason format.

There’s also no technical explanation of the differences between the Power 5 and Group of 5 entities, which is a big problem for the committee. It’s likely not going to be able to explain it without referencing the colloquial expression “I know it when I see it” from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964.

The main difference between the different levels of competition in the NCAA (FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III) is mostly the number of scholarships. However, Power 5 and Group of 5 schools have the same number of football scholarships (85). That’s why those schools are considered to be on the same level and are told that they’re competing for the same national championship, even though we all know that’s not true. 

The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is displayed during Big Ten media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This is a significant development. I don’t expect ESPN to willingly pay $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State if the CFP format doesn’t change, and especially if the Pac-12 ever merges with the Mountain West and/or The American.

Oregon State and Washington State are in a pretty strong position, which is why I expect them to use it as leverage for ESPN to pull strings to get them in a Power 5 conference. The most like destination is the Big 12. Oregon State and Washington State are much better fits in that conference than the ACC, Big Ten, or the SEC. The two schools would also be quality additions to the Big 12. Oregon State has a solid football program right now and its baseball team has made it to Omaha, Neb., for the College World Series six times since 2005. Washington State has had a respectable football program for the last 30 years, and has its cool College Gameday tradition.

I think it’s more likely than not that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Big 12. It’ll be much cheaper for ESPN to broadcast their games in the conference at a reduced share (roughly $20 million per school) than it would be to give them a share of the CFP revenue. It would also benefit Oregon State and Washington State in the long-term future to join the Big 12, instead of potentially joining the American or Mountain West.

Another hurdle of a CFP format change: Washington St. & Oregon St. are exploring ways to operate as a 2-school league for 1-2 yrs via NCAA grace period.

CFP must answer:
1 Would their "champion" be eligible for an AQ?
2 Do they each get CFP P5 revenue?https://t.co/vbBNfqXbRy

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 27, 2023

I also wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN waited for the committee to come to a decision on the format for the expanded CFP. If the Pac-12 loses its guaranteed spot, it’ll cost ESPN even less money to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State games in either the Mountain West or The American. That could be problematic, though, because the committee won’t meet again for a while and the clock is ticking. Plus, in order to change the CFP format, there has to be a unanimous decision by the committee, and The American commissioner Mike Aresco has said he won’t vote to change the format. So, that might not be the best course of action.

There could be a lot more riding on this development than just which conference Oregon State and Washington State join. The committee has a huge decision to make these next few weeks when it comes to the CFP format. I don’t think anyone wants to see more substantial changes to the highest level of college football, but I can’t help but see the writing on the wall. It feels like this will be the first step in the Power 5 conferences separating from the Group of 5 conferences or vice versa, which will completely change the college football landscape forever.

There’s been so much tension between the two entities since the CFP was established. The Group of 5 schools only receive 20% of the revenue, and there have even been rumblings of them starting their own playoff format. Unless the committee decides to give more than one Group of 5 conference champion a guaranteed spot in the CFP, which I highly doubt will happen, I think there’s only going to be more division. Regardless of how the committee handles the Pac-12’s situation.

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9 Group of 5 teams that could make a New Year’s Six bowl game in 2023

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m not following you, I’m looking for you. There’s a big difference.”

– Martin Stett, “The Conversation” (1974)

Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve had a tumultuous last few weeks in regards to conference realignment, leading to the demise of the Pac-12. That’s where everyone’s attention, including myself, has been recently. It’s to the point that I think people have forgotten that college football games will be played a little over a week from now. It’s hard to believe, right? 

I wanted to start previewing the season by writing a blog post about which Group of 5 teams have a legitimate chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. 

This topic might not draw a lot of interest, but Group of 5 teams have actually had success in the New Year’s Six since getting a guaranteed spot in 2014. Boise State beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl in 2014, Houston beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl in 2015, UCF beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl in 2017, and Tulane beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last year. Cincinnati even snuck into the College Football Playoff in 2021, and almost beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl in 2020. 

So, which Group of 5 teams could find themselves in the New Year’s Six? I did my best to narrow it down to nine teams (of 64) Remember, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF are now Power 5 schools, but Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State are making the jump from FCS to Group of 5. 

American Athletic Conference

Florida Atlantic Owls wide receiver LaJohntay Wester (1) celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver Tony Johnson (16) during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Atlantic Owls
2022 record: 5-7
Returning production: 83% (68% offensively, 99% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83
Transfer portal rank: No. 79
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

Say what you want about Tom Herman as a head coach, but he had a lot of success when he was previously at the Group of 5 level at Houston. Florida Atlantic also ranks in the top five in all of college football in returning production, which includes its top two rushers, four of its top five pass catchers, and a stout offensive line. One question mark is the quarterback position, but the Owls picked up two Power 5 quarterbacks in the transfer portal in Michael Johnson (Penn State) and Casey Thompson (Nebraska and Texas). FAU has also recruited well in recent years, so Herman should have a talented roster. The Owls have a difficult schedule, featuring non-conference road games against Clemson and Illinois, but I think their conference slate is manageable. I wouldn’t count this team out.

Memphis Tigers tight end Caden Prieskorn (86) and wide receiver Eddie Lewis (18) react after a touchdown during the first half against the North Alabama Lions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis Tigers
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 63% (67% offensively, 59% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.52
Transfer portal rank: No. 73
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Memphis has fallen off since Mike Norvell’s departure since 2020 – posting a record of 21-15 the last three seasons. I’m not ready to start doubting the Tigers, who’ve ranked near the top of The American almost every season since the conference was formed in 2013. One of the main reasons why I like Memphis’ chances to be competitive is because it’s one of 17 teams at the Group of 5 level that returns its head coach, both coordinators, and starting quarterback. Not other team in The American can say that. I think that’s significant because the Tigers also return a good amount of production on both sides of the ball. Memphis has a winnable game against Missouri at a neutral site in Week 4, and get Tulane at home a few weeks later. Those two games will likely determine the Tigers’ season.

Southern Methodist Mustangs tight end RJ Maryland (82) celebrates a touchdown against the Tulane Green Wave during the first half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

SMU Mustangs
2022 record: 7-6
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 85.32
Transfer portal rank: No. 15
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I think SMU was much better last season than its record would indicate. The Mustangs lost four games by a combined 18 points despite averaging 37.2 points per game. SMU lost a bit of production, including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, but it also brought in one of the top transfer portal classes. There’s a lot riding on presumed starting quarterback Preston Stone, but he ought to have a good supporting class around him. The Mustangs return their top three rushers and five of their top seven pass catchers. They also bolstered their offensive line by bringing in four transfers from the Power 5 level. SMU’s schedule won’t make things easy, though. The Mustangs have road games against Oklahoma, TCU, and Memphis. This team still has enough talent to make some noise, though.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz during the first quarter against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane Mean Green
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 71% (73% offensively, 68% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.93
Transfer portal rank: No. 83
Vegas projected win total: 9.5

With Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF now in the Big 12, I think Tulane is prepared to take the mantle as the team to beat in The American. We actually saw it happen last year. The Green Wave finished 12-2, won The American, and even defeated USC in the Cotton Bowl. They lost their leading rusher, top two wide receivers, and tackler from last year’s team, but they still have a lot of production returning, including quarterback Michael Pratt and four starters on the offensive line. I also think Tulane’s schedule is manageable. The Green Wave get Ole Miss, UAB, and UTSA at home, and the only road game they won’t have a talent advantage will likely be against Memphis. If they can beat Ole Miss in Week 2, they’re going to be in a good spot to return to a New Year’s Six bowl game.

UTSA Roadrunners wide receiver Zakhari Franklin (4) runs for a touchdown in the second half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

UTSA Roadrunners
2022 record: 11-3
Returning production: 52% (56% offensively, 48% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 83.82
Transfer portal rank: No. 93
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

UTSA might not return much overall production, but there’s a strong argument to be made that this team has the best quarterback/head coach combination in The American. Jeff Traylor has a record of 30-10 in three seasons with the Roadrunners, including winning at least 11 games each of the last two years. Three-year starting quarterback Frank Harris has also completed 67% of his passes, averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and thrown 71 touchdowns in his career. That’s not even counting leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and three of the team’s top four receivers also return. UTSA has a brutal schedule, though, with road games at Houston, Tennessee, FAU, and Tulane. As long as the Roadrunners have Traylor and Harris, they’re going to have a chance to win a lot of games.

MAC

Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) throws a pass against the San Diego State Aztecs during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo Rockets
2022 record: 9-5
Returning production: 77% (82% offensively, 72% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.99
Transfer portal rank: No. 108 (tied)
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

I’d keep an eye on Toledo this season. The Rockets finished last season on a high note – winning seven of their last 10 games – and averaged 31.1 points per game during that stretch. Toledo ranks No. 11 in the country in returning production, including its starting quarterback Dequan Finn, top four leading rushers, top two pass catchers, four starters along the offensive line, and good players from a solid defense. Head coach Jason Candle has also had continuity on his staff, with all of his coordinators entering their fourth season. I also think the Rockets have a manageable schedule. They get Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois at home, and have a winnable road game against Illinois in Week 1. It feels like this is going to be Candle’s best team since he took over at Toledo.

Mountain West

Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) hands off to running back George Holani (24) during the first half against the Utah State Aggies at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State Broncos
2022 record: 10-4
Returning production: 67% (78% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 84.36
Transfer portal rank: No. 85
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

I don’t care how long it’s been since Boise State was on the national stage. I’m always going to include the Broncos on this list. Boise State actually had a very quiet 10-win season last year, with wins over San Diego State, Fresno State, and Air Force, before losing to Fresno State in a rematch in the Mountain West championship. The Broncos also return a good amount of production, including starting quarterback Taylen Green, their top three rushers, four of their top five receivers, and three starters on the offensive line. Head coach Andy Avalos has also proven that he can field a solid defense. The problem for Boise State is its schedule, which features road trips to Washington, San Diego State, and Memphis, and a home game against UCF just in the first half of the season.

Sun Belt

South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Carter Bradley (2) sets to pass in the first half against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

South Alabama Jaguars
2022 record: 10-3
Returning production: 77% (71% offensively, 82% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.48
Transfer portal rank: No. 78
Vegas projected win total: 7.5

South Alabama has a chance to have a special season in head coach Kane Wommack’s third year with the program. The Jaguars rank No. 13 in returning production from a team that won 10 games last year. That includes their starting quarterback, top three leading rushers, five of their top seven pass catchers, and six of their best defensive players. South Alabama is going to have one of the tougher schedules in college football, though. The Jaguars have road games at Tulane, Oklahoma State, James Madison, and Troy, and then get Louisiana and Marshall at home. It’s going to be difficult for South Alabama to repeat its success from last season, but it’s going to have opportunities to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee with that schedule. That shouldn’t be overlooked.

Troy Trojans linebacker K.J. Robertson (7) runs after the interception against UTSA Roadrunners in the third quarter at Exploria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Trojans
2022 record: 12-2
Returning production: 60% (64% offensively, 55% defensively)
Average rating per recruit in last four recruiting classes: 82.27
Transfer portal rank: No. 82
Vegas projected win total: 8.5

Troy is considered the favorite to win the Sun Belt and rightfully so. The Trojans won 12 games last year in Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach, and hung tough against Ole Miss and Appalachian State. They could’ve finished with an even better record. Troy also returns a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including starting quarterback Gunnar Watson and two of its top three rushers. The main reason why I think the Trojans have a chance to get to a New Year’s Six bowl game is their schedule. They have two tough road games at Kansas State and Army in non-conference play, but they get James Madison, South Alabama, and Louisiana at home. Those last three games will likely decide the Sun Belt championship, which is played at the home stadium of the top team in the conference.

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2023 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Am I wrong?”

– Walter Sobchak, “The Big Lebowski” (1998)

I always enjoy March Madness, but I’m particularly looking forward to it this season. I’m getting tired of the NFL offseason storylines, specifically in regards to Aaron Rodgers and whether he’s going to play in 2023. College basketball is going to bring a refreshing change to my life, at least for the next three weeks. It also feels good having my West Virginia Mountaineers in the NCAA tournament after missing out last year, so I’m going to be even more invested.

Last year was one of the worst jobs I did when it came to filling out a bracket. By the end of the first day of last year’s tournament, Kentucky lost to Saint Peter’s and Iowa lost to Richmond. I had each of those teams getting to the Final Four, and I had Kentucky winning it all. Auburn was eliminated in the second round and Arizona lost in the Sweet 16. I had each of those teams getting to the Elite Eight, and I had Arizona playing for the national championship. If you don’t believe just how bad it was, just take a look.

I think I finished last year with a measly 38 points in all my bracket challenges, because I fill out the same bracket with every group. I’m not 100% sure if that’s the worst I’ve ever done, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not. I consider my reputation to be on the line this year. I need to do better and put last year’s abysmal performance behind me. For the first time ever on this blog, I’m going to be picking the First Four matchups. I don’t understand why I haven’t done that in the past.

My opinion of this NCAA tournament is that it’s one of the strongest ones I’ve ever seen. I think there were six or seven teams that had arguments to be No. 1 seeds. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen that before. There are also a plethora of mid-major schools with a lot of experience. I also wouldn’t bet against Big 12 members. The Big 12 has had four different schools make the Final Four in the last six tournaments. The previous two national champions have also come from that conference. March Madness never fails to be entertaining, but I think this tournament has a chance to be special.

Nevada Wolf Pack center Will Baker (50) drives for a layup against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

First Four – Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10)

The computers seem to think that there’s a substantial difference between these teams. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks almost 100 spots higher than Southeast Missouri State in KenPom’s rankings. The Redhawks also don’t rank that high in either adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency. The Islanders also have tournament experience from last year.

Winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

No. 11 Pitt (22-11) vs. No. 11 Mississippi State (21-12)

According to the metrics, Pitt is one of the worst teams in the tournament. The Panthers rank No. 77 in KenPom’s rankings, which is the 17th worst of the entire field. Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks – winners of nine of its last 13 games. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: Mississippi State

No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (19-15) vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (14-20)

The metrics consider these teams to be the two worst teams in the field. I don’t know what to make of them, but it’s telling that Fairleigh Dickinson has won 19 games and ranks No. 312 in KenPom’s rankings. That’s behind Texas Southern, which s entering the NCAA tournament six games below .500.

Winner: Texas Southern

No. 11 Nevada (22-10) vs. No. 11 Arizona State (22-12)

ESPN’s BPI rankings considers these teams to be in the bottom 20 of the tournament field. I guess I’m going to give the slight advantage to Arizona State. The Sun Devils have more talent and they’ve played somewhat well recently. Mountain West teams are also 1-11 in the NCAA tournament since 2016.

Winner: Arizona State

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats talks with Alabama Crimson Tide guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 64

South Regional

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 1 Alabama (29-5) – Birmingham, Ala.

A No. 16 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed only once in the history of the NCAA tournament. I don’t think I’m ever going to predict it to happen. Alabama looked impressive in the SEC tournament and I expect it to cruise to the next round.

Winner: Alabama

No. 9 West Virginia (19-14) vs. No. 8 Maryland (21-12) – Birmingham, Ala.

WVU feels like a team that’s going to benefit by getting out of Big 12 play. I also think this could be a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers. WVU struggles with turnovers, but Maryland isn’t good at forcing them. The Terrapins also don’t shoot the ball or rebound as well as the Mountaineers. I’m going to rely on the better head coach in Bob Huggins.

Winner: West Virginia

No. 12 Charleston (31-3) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (27-6) – Orlando, Fla.

The 5/12 matchups are always enticing to pick the upset, but I think this is a tough matchup for Charleston. San Diego State rebounds very well and likes to slow the game down. The Cougars don’t shoot the ball that well and they haven’t really been challenged in weeks. I expect the Aztecs to give Charleston a lot of problems.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Furman (27-7) vs. No. 4 Virginia (25-7) – Orlando, Fla.

I flirted with picking the upset in this matchup. Furman is a great offensive team that takes care of the basketball. I’m not sure the Paladins shoot well enough from 3-point territory to upset Virginia, though. The Cavaliers commit the fewest amount of turnovers in the country and shoot the ball well. It’s hard to pick against Tony Bennett and Virginia.

Winner: Virginia

No. 11 NC State (23-10) vs. No. 6 Creighton (21-12) – Denver

I’m not much of a believer in either of these coaches. Neither have had much success in the NCAA tournament. However, this feels like Greg McDermott’s best team at Creighton since his son was there in 2014. The Bluejays have also won 12 of their last 16 games. I feel like Creighton should advance because I didn’t think NC State should’ve made the tournament.

Winner: Creighton

No. 14 UC-Santa Barbara (27-7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (22-10) – Denver

I think this is a flawed Baylor team, but it should be able to take care of business in this game. UC-Santa Barbara is one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament and the Bears rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I expect the Gauchos will have a difficult time slowing down Baylor’s offense. The Bears also have a significant talent and coaching advantage.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Utah State (26-8) vs. No. 7 Missouri (24-9) – Sacramento, Calif.

I can’t get a read on Missouri. Winning 24 games and getting to the semifinals of the SEC tournament is an impressive feat, but the metrics consider the Tigers one of the worst teams in the tournament. Utah State ranks 33 spots higher than Missouri in KenPom’s rankings. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with the Aggies.

Winner: Utah State

No. 15 Princeton (21-8) vs. No. 2 Arizona (28-6) – Sacramento, Calif.

Ivy League schools actually have a decent track record in the NCAA tournament. This feels like a tough matchup for Princeton, though. Arizona is loaded with talent and has won 13 of its last 16 games, including winning the Pac-12 tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts after making a basket and being fouled during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-5) – Columbus, Ohio

Texas Southern has the ability to rebound, which you need to do in order to beat Purdue. However, there’s no way I’m picking a team with a losing record to upset a No. 1 seed.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 FAU (31-3) vs. No. 8 Memphis (26-8) – Columbus, Ohio

This feels like a tough matchup for FAU. I think Memphis is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Tigers are loaded with talent and shoot the ball well. The best way for the Owls to win this game is to force turnovers and I don’t think they do that well enough – ranking No. 154 in the country.

Winner: Memphis

No. 12 Oral Roberts (30-4) vs. No. 5 Duke (26-8) – Orlando, Fla.

Oral Roberts is arguably the strongest No. 12 seed in the tournament. The Golden Eagles are an excellent offensive team and are red hot entering the NCAA tournament – winners of 17 games in a row. However, Duke is playing its best basketball right now after winning the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are also going to have a significant talent advantage.

Winner: Duke

No. 13 Louisiana (26-7) vs. No. 4 Tennessee (23-10) – Orlando, Fla.

Even though Tennessee hasn’t been the same since Zakai Zeigler got hurt, I still think it’s plenty talented to win this game. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 58 points per game. I don’t think Louisiana, which ranks No. 57 in adjusted offensive efficiency, is good enough to overcome Tennessee’s defense.

Winner: Tennessee

No. 11 Providence (21-11) vs. No. 6 Kentucky (21-11) – Greensboro, N.C.

I swore off picking Kentucky to go deep in the tournament after it lost to Saint Peter’s last year. However, I like the Wildcats in this matchup. They rank in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and rebound the ball very well. Providence doesn’t shoot the ball that well and I don’t think it’s talented enough to knock off Kentucky.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 14 Montana State (25-9) vs. No. 3 Kansas State (23-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

I’m not convinced that Montana State is good enough offensively to knock off Kansas State, which ranks in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bobcats don’t shoot that well from 3-point territory and aren’t the best rebounding team. Jerome Tang has done an excellent job in his first season with the Wildcats and I don’t see their season ending here.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 10 USC (22-10) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (19-12) – Columbus, Ohio

I think USC is talented enough to win this game, but I’m going to go with Michigan State. I’m a firm believer that coaching matters in March and the Spartans have that advantage with Tom Izzo, who’s lost in the Round of 64 only twice since 2011. I also think traveling across the country might have a negative effect on the Trojans.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 15 Vermont (23-10) vs. No. 2 Marquette (28-6) – Columbus, Ohio

I don’t think this is going to be an easy game for Marquette to win. Vermont is a well-coached team that has been a tough out in the NCAA tournament in its last three appearances. The Golden Eagles are red hot right now, though. They’ve won 19 of their last 21 games, including winning the Big East tournament. I expect Marquette to advance.

Winner: Marquette

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson gives direction during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Northern Kentucky (22-12) vs. No. 1 Houston (31-3) – Birmingham, Ala.

Northern Kentucky got hot in its conference tournament and clinched a tournament bid, but it’s considered one of the worst teams in the field. The Norse rank in the bottom six in both KenPom and ESPN BPI. Houston shouldn’t have many problems in this game.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Auburn (20-12) vs. No. 8 Iowa (19-13) – Birmingham, Ala.

I don’t trust Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament. He’s never made it past the first weekend. I also don’t think Iowa is good enough on the defensive end of the court. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom of the tournament field in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn is the more talented team and has the better head coach in Bruce Pearl.

Winner: Auburn

No. 12 Drake (27-7) vs. No. 5 Miami (25-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I can’t go the entire Round of 64 without picking an upset in a 12/5 matchup. It happens almost on a yearly basis. I think Miami is vulnerable after losing Norchad Omier in the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have also struggled on the defensive end of the court. Drake is a solid, tournament experienced team. I like the Bulldogs to get the upset.

Winner: Drake

No. 13 Kent State (28-6) vs. No. 4 Indiana (22-11) – Albany, N.Y.

This is another matchup that I like the upset. Indiana isn’t playing particularly well entering the tournament. The Hoosiers have won only four of their last eight games and struggled to score points during that stretch. Kent State has hung tough with a lot of quality teams this season and are strong defensively. I think the Golden Flashes find a way to win.

Winner: Kent State

No. 11 Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Iowa State (19-13) – Greensboro, N.C.

Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks, but it’s going to be tough for it to win this game. Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 62.8 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t shoot the ball well, especially from 3-point territory. I think the Cyclones also have the better head coach in T.J. Otzelberger.

Winner: Iowa State

No. 14 Kennesaw State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Xavier (25-9) – Greensboro, N.C.

By the time this game rolls around, Kennesaw State wouldn’t have played in 12 days. I think that’s going to be problematic, especially against Xavier. The Musketeers are a great offensive team and have played well in their last six games. The Owls are going to have a difficult time after so much time off.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State (22-13) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (25-9) – Des Moines, Iowa

I don’t feel good about this, but I’m going to pick Penn State to win this game. The Nittany Lions are red hot – winners of eight of their last 10 games – and came three points shy of winning the Big Ten tournament. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time defending Jalen Pickett, who’s averaged 19.6 points in Penn State’s last 10 games.

Winner: Penn State

No. 15 Colgate (26-8) vs. No. 2 Texas (26-8) – Des Moines, Iowa

I wouldn’t sleep on Colgate in this matchup. The Raiders have made each of the last four NCAA tournaments and rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. However, Texas has won six of its last eight games, including winning the Big 12 tournament. I have to go with the Longhorns.

Winner: Texas

Kansas Jayhawks guard MJ Rice (11) sets the play during the first half against the Texas Longhornsat T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard (22-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (27-7) – Des Moines, Iowa

I’m struggling to see a scenario where a lesser team like Howard knocks off the Big 12 regular season champion, which is an impressive feat considering it was the toughest conference this year. Kansas has too much talent to lose this game.

Winner: Kansas

No. 9 Illinois (20-12) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (20-13) – Des Moines, Iowa

This is a tough game to predict because both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. I’m going to give the advantage to Illinois. Arkansas is hobbling to the tournament – losing 11 of its last 19 games. The Fighting Illini are a well-coached team with plenty of athleticism. I think they’re in a slightly better position right now.

Winner: Illinois

No. 12 VCU (27-7) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) – Albany, N.Y.

I like the upset in this game. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I don’t trust come tournament time. I think VCU is going to want to speed the game up and that style of play is going to give the Gaels some trouble. The Rams also have one of the best defenses in the country – ranking No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: VCU

No. 13 Iona (27-7) vs. No. 4 UConn (25-8) – Albany, N.Y.

I’m kind of tempted to pick Iona solely because of Rick Pitino. He’s one of the best coaches in college basketball history and he has the Gaels playing well right now. However, I’m going to give the advantage to UConn because it’s the more talented team. I also think the Huskies might be the most underrated team in this tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU (21-12) – Denver

Jamie Dixon doesn’t have the best track record in the NCAA tournament, but I’m having a difficult time picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs are a talented team and are excellent defensively. Arizona State doesn’t shoot the ball well, which isn’t going to bode well against TCU. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Horned Frogs.

Winner: TCU

No. 14 Grand Canyon (24-11) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (28-5) – Denver

This feels like a bad matchup for Grand Canyon. There are only four teams in the tournament worse than the Antelopes in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the other side, Gonzaga is one of the hottest teams in the country right now and has averaged 90 points in its last 13 games. The Bulldogs also haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2008.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State (24-9) vs. No. 7 Northwestern (21-11) – Sacramento, Calif.

Northwestern is an excellent defensive team, but Boise State plays an interesting style of basketball. The Broncos shoot the ball well and rank in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think points are going to be hard to come by for the Wildcats, who average only 67.7 points per game and shoot 40.6% from the field.

Winner: Boise State

No. 15 UNC-Asheville (27-7) vs. No. 2 UCLA (29-5) – Sacramento, Calif.

UNC-Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games, but UCLA feels like an under seeded team. The Bruins rank No. 2 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI’s rankings. This feels like it’s going to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs.

Winner: UCLA

Creighton Bluejays guard Ryan Nembhard (2) drives to the basket against Villanova Wildcats guard Justin Moore (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Round of 32

South Regional

No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama – Birmingham, Ala.

I think West Virginia has a chance to make a deep tournament run, but I doubt it’s going to be the team to knock off Alabama. The Mountaineers have been vulnerable defensively – allowing 71 points per game. That’s going to be a problem when going up against the Crimson Tide, who average 82.2 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Virginia – Orlando, Fla.

Both of these teams play a similar style of basketball. They’re going to want to slow the game down. The first team to 60 points might win, honestly. I’ll give the advantage to Virginia. The Cavaliers take care of the basketball very well and shoot the ball better than San Diego State. I also think the Aztecs will struggle to score on Virginia’s defense.

Winner: Virginia

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 3 Baylor – Denver

Despite being a No. 3 seed, I have reservations about Baylor being able to make a deep run. The Bears haven’t been playing well down the stretch – losers of four of their last six games. They’re also not a great defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball very well and does a better job of taking care of the basketball, too. I’ll take the minor upset.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 2 Arizona – Sacramento, Calif.

I don’t think Utah State has the length to contend with Arizona. The Aggies average only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game. I don’t think that’s going to be good enough to knock off the Wildcats, who average 39.4 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). Arizona is one of the better shooting teams in the tournament, too. I expect the Wildcats to advance.

Winner: Arizona

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 1 Purdue – Columbus, Ohio

This is going to be a tough matchup for Purdue. The Boilermakers struggle to take care of the basketball at times and Memphis is excellent at forcing turnovers – averaging 15.3 per game. However, the Tigers are going to have a difficult time defending Zach Edey, who averages 22.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. I’ll go with Purdue to squeak out a win.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 4 Tennessee – Orlando, Fla.

I don’t see Tennessee being able to make a deep run without Zeigler. The Volunteers aren’t the same team without him. This is going to be a tough matchup for them. Duke is playing very well right now and feels like a vastly under seeded team. The Blue Devils are also going to have the talent advantage. I like them to advance to the Sweet 16.

Winner: Duke

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Kansas State – Greensboro, N.C.

I’ve been burned by John Calipari and Kentucky too many times in recent years. So, I’m going to go with Kansas State to win this game. The Wildcats have the ability to match Kentucky’s rebounding production. I also think Kansas State will be able to expose the Wildcats’ defense, which ranks No. 71 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Kansas State

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Marquette – Columbus, Ohio

Again, I think coaching matters. I don’t trust Shaka Smart, who has a record of 2-8 in the NCAA tournament since 2011 and is winless since 2013. With only two days to prepare, I’m going to give Izzo the advantage. I think Marquette will have a difficult time scoring on Michigan State’s defense, which allows just 67.4 points per game.

Winner: Michigan State

Drake Bulldogs guard D.J. Wilkins (0) reacts after making a three pointer against the Bradley Braves during the first half in the finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 1 Houston – Birmingham, Ala.

This feels like the furthest Auburn is going to get in the tournament. The Tigers struggle to shoot the ball and have lost nine of their last 13 games. That’s not what it’s going to take to knock off Houston, which ranks No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars are the more athletic team and should be able to take care of business.

Winner: Houston

No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 12 Drake – Albany, N.Y.

I’m going to keep rolling with Drake. The Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in this matchup in Tucker DeVries. Drake is also one of the best shooting teams in the tournament – averaging 47% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point territory. I think the Bulldogs have a good chance of getting past the first weekend.

Winner: Drake

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Xavier – Greensboro, N.C.

While Iowa State is an excellent defensive team, I’m not convinced it has the offense to defeat Xavier. The Musketeers average 81.4 points per game and shoot 49.4% from the floor (39.5% from 3-point territory). They’re also an excellent rebounding team. It feels like too much is going against the Cyclones in this matchup.

Winner: Xavier

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas – Des Moines, Iowa

Texas has the depth at guard, especially if Timmy Allen is healthy, to give Pickett and Penn State fits. This feels like the end of the road for the Nittany Lions. I doubt Penn State, which ranks No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency, is good enough on that end of the court to upset the Longhorns. Texas is the much better team and should advance.

Winner: Texas

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates after a play against the Chicago State Cougars in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 1 Kansas – Des Moines, Iowa

Illinois has what it takes to knock off Kansas. I’ve been burned by the Fighting Illini the last two years, though. They’ve been to inconsistent for me to pick the upset. The Jayhawks are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament – allowing only 67.9 points per game. Illinois is going to have a difficult time scoring points.

Winner: Kansas

No. 12 VCU vs. No. 4 UConn – Albany, N.Y.

UConn’s frontcourt is too talented and it has too much length. I have to pick the Huskies to win this game. If the shots aren’t falling for VCU, I doubt it has what it takes to win this game. UConn makes 46% of its shots and still averages 13.4 offensive rebounds per game. That’s very impressive. I don’t think the Rams will be able to overcome that.

Winner: UConn

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 3 Gonzaga – Denver

I’m not convinced that TCU can get past the first weekend without Eddie Lampkin, who recently entered the transfer portal. The Horned Frogs have also lost eight of their last 13 games. Jamie Dixon also hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the tournament since 2009. Gonzaga is the better team right now and I see no reason to pick against the Bulldogs.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 2 UCLA – Sacramento, Calif.

Even though I’m high on Boise State’s offensive ability, this is going to be a tough matchup. UCLA ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 60.3 points per game. I don’t think the Broncos are talented enough to overcome that. I expect the Bruins to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third-straight year.

Winner: UCLA

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Brandon Miller (24) celebrates after a made basket plus one during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Sweet 16

South Regional semifinals – Louisville, Ky.

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama

I actually think Virginia has what it takes to knock off Alabama. The Cavaliers are very good defensively and don’t make mistakes. If they can ugly this game up, the Crimson Tide could be in trouble. I don’t see that happening, though. Alabama is going to have the best player on the court in Brandon Miller. At the end of the day, I don’t think Virginia is good enough offensively to pull off the upset.

Winner: Alabama

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 2 Arizona

I don’t think Creighton is talented enough to knock off Arizona. I’m also struggling to see which part of this matchup the Bluejays have an advantage. The Wildcats are the better shooting and rebounding team, and are the more efficient offensively. Creighton is going to have to play its best game of the season in order to win. That’s a tall order when March rolls around.

Winner: Arizona

Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) reacts in the second half during the semifinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals – New York

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 1 Purdue

When these teams met in the regular season, Edey was dominant as Purdue rolled to a 19-point victory. I don’t expect a similar result this time around. Duke is a much better team right now and is playing very well defensively. If Mike Krzyzewski was still the head coach of the Blue Devils, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick the upset. I still think Edey is going to be problematic for Duke, though.

Winner: Purdue

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State

I don’t see Michigan State getting further than this point. The Spartans have to make shots at some point, which is something they haven’t done consistently this season. It’s going to be particularly difficult against Kansas State, which kept opponents to shooting just 41.9% from the field (30.1% from 3-point territory). I actually think the Wildcats have a favorable path to the Elite Eight.

Winner: Kansas State

Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr (5) celebrates after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 12 Drake vs. No. 1 Houston

This is a favorable matchup for Houston. While Drake shoots the ball well, it only ranks No. 98 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are going to have a difficult time scoring on the Cougars. Houston allows only 56.5 points per game and opponents shoot just 36.4% from the field (27.8% from 3-point territory). I expect the Cougars to get back to the Elite Eight for the third-straight year.

Winner: Houston

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas

Despite losing Chris Beard in the middle of the season, I’ve been impressed with Texas all season. The Longhorns are playing at a high level right now. It’s hard for me to pick against them. Sean Miller has become a head coach that I don’t trust come tournament time either. He hasn’t made it past the first weekend since 2017. I think Texas’ backcourt depth will be too much for Xavier.

Winner: Texas

UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) plays against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Kansas

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for UConn. Kansas allows its opponents to collect 34.8 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). The Huskies are going to be able to crash the boards against the Jayhawks. UConn has a deeper bench, with nine players averaging at least 13.2 minutes per game. I also question whether Bill Self is ready to coach again after his a health scare in the Big 12 tournament.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA

I still don’t think Gonzaga has been challenged enough in conference play. Excluding Saint Mary’s, the Bulldogs haven’t played a team that ranked higher than No. 75 in KenPom’s rankings since Dec. 2. I think UCLA’s defense is up to the challenge of slowing down Gonzaga’s offense. I also think the Bruins will have the 2021 Final Four meeting between these teams in the back of their mind.

Winner: UCLA

Arizona Wildcats forward Azuolas Tubelis (10) looks to shoot against UCLA Bruins forward Kenneth Nwuba (14) during the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Elite Eight

South Regional final – Louisville, Ky.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Alabama

I’m not as high on Alabama as everyone else. The Crimson Tide don’t shoot the ball as well as people think – averaging just 44.6% from the field and 33.8% from 3-point territory. I think Arizona matches up very well with Alabama. The Wildcats have the length and superior rebounding ability to upset the Crimson Tide. I also question if Alabama has enough scoring depth, outside of Miller, to win it all. Arizona has had four different players score at least 24 points in a game. That usually translates well in the tournament.

Winner: Arizona

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter gestures to his team during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final – New York

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Purdue

I have a feeling that this regional final is going to look much differently in a few weeks. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding almost every team in this region. However, if these teams meet in the Elite Eight, I expect Purdue to emerge victorious. I don’t think Kansas State is good enough in the paint to limit Edey’s production. If you can’t slow down Edey, you’re going to have a difficult time defeating the Boilermakers. I’m not confident in this pick at all, but I like Purdue to get to the Final Four.

Winner: Purdue

Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser (0) reacts after a three point basket during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final – Kansas City, Mo.

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Houston

I understand why people are hesitant to pick Houston after Marcus Sasser’s injury. However, the Cougars have a favorable path to get to this point, which will give Sasser time to get healthy. Even if he’s not 100%, I think Houston still has plenty of athleticism, depth, and defensive expertise to get back to the Final Four. The Cougars have had four different players score at least 20 points in a game. I also doubt that Texas can get to the Final Four with an interim head coach.

Winner: Houston

Connecticut Huskies guard R.J. Cole (1) looks to pass during the second half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final – Las Vegas

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 2 UCLA

If Jaylen Clark was healthy, I’d pick UCLA to win. I think the Bruins will have a difficult time without him, though. KenPom has UConn ranked No. 4, so it’s a vastly under seeded team in this tournament. That and Clark’s injury are why I like the Huskies to win this game. UConn ranks in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies also have the ability to make shots and get to the free throw line, which is going to be valuable against UCLA.

Winner: UConn

Final Four – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Purdue

I question if Purdue has enough scoring depth, outside of Edey, in order to win the national championship. Edey has led the Boilermakers in scoring in 24 of their 34 games. I also think Purdue’s inexperienced backcourt will be a problem at some point in the tournament. That’s why I’m not convinced that the Boilermakers are going to get to this point. I’m going to give the advantage to Arizona. The Wildcats have the length to match up with Edey in the paint. They also have an experienced roster, with their top six leading scorers being upperclassmen.

Winner: Arizona

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Houston

I actually wouldn’t rule out UConn winning this game. The Huskies are a much more athletic team than people think, and they have the ability to score. UConn has also fared well in the last 20 years when the Final Four has been in Texas. With this all but being a home game for Houston, I’m going to give the advantage to the Cougars. I think they’re a more complete team than UConn. Houston ranks in the top 12 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies are going to have a difficult time making shots against the Cougars’ stout defense.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

2023 National Championship – Houston

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Houston

I thought Arizona had what it takes to win the national championship last year. The problem was that the Wildcats ran into a defensive buzz saw in Houston in the Sweet 16. I see the same thing happening in this matchup. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country, maybe even the best. They also do a lot of things very well that usually translate to wins in March. Houston won the turnover margin by a ratio of 4.6 and collected an average of 12.8 offensive rebounds per game – ranking in the top 15 in the country in both categories.

If Sasser is healthy, which I’m expecting him to be, I don’t see a team that’s going to be able to slow down the Cougars. There’s a reason why they’re No. 1 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI rankings. Houston just has too much size, athleticism, and scoring depth. I think the Cougars can get adequate production from Jarace Walker, J’Wan Roberts, Jamal Shead, or Truman Mark even if Sasser isn’t 100% healthy.

Winner: Houston

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College football coaching carousel grades

Movie quote of the day:

“You more shredded than a Julienne salad, man.”

– Kirk Lazarus, “Tropic Thunder” (2008)

Cincinnati Bearcats coach Luke Fickell stands with his team prior to the game against the Miami (Oh) Redhawks at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

This post is coming too late, but my readers should know that I like to see how bowl season, and even the first week after the NFL regular season, shakes out first. All in all, it was kind of a lackluster coaching carousel. There were a couple big hires, but, for the most part, the pool of candidates this cycle left a lot to be desired. That’s why a lot of schools decided to hang on to their current head coach – look no further than my West Virginia Mountaineers.

Another result of the candidate pool not being that impressive means that a lot of schools had to think outside the box when hiring a new head coach. Therefore, a few of the hires probably didn’t raise many eyebrows. It might’ve even left people questioning the decision making at certain schools. I’m not one of those people. I encourage thinking outside the box and encourage gambling on a coach. I actually think the hires made by some of these schools will turn out to be smart decisions.

Kenny Dillingham speaks at his introductory press conference as ASU’s 26th head football coach on Nov 27, 2022 in Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Ariz. Mandatory credit: Arizona Republic.

Arizona State Sun Devils
Out: Herm Edwards
In: Kenny Dillingham

I actually think Dillingham has an impressive resume despite being only 32 years old. He’s been an offensive coordinator at four different spots at Memphis, Auburn, Florida State, and Oregon. His most impressive season arguably came with the Ducks this past year – averaging 38.7 points per game, 6.9 yards per play, 215.7 rushing yards per game, and scoring a touchdown 70% of the time in the red zone. Not only that, but Dillingham is a Phoenix native and a graduate of Arizona State. This feels like a perfect fit and underrated hire by Arizona State.

Grade: B+

Liberty Flames head coach Hugh Freeze walks down the sideline during the first quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn Tigers
Out: Bryan Harsin
In: Hugh Freeze

Auburn was looking to make a big splash in the coaching carousel and made one by hiring Freeze. He has experience in the SEC and has won 66.4% of his games at three different stops at Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and Liberty. He’s also won 10 games in a season at each of those schools, too. Freeze is also an excellent recruiter and will bring in top talent to Auburn, which he’s already started doing since accepting the job. He comes with a lot of baggage, but his resume speaks for itself and I don’t blame Auburn taking a chance on him.

Grade: A

Charlotte introduces Biff Poggi as the school’s next head coach. He previously served as the associate head coach at Michigan. Mandatory credit: WBTV

Charlotte 49ers
Out: Will Healy
In: Biff Poggi

With Charlotte making the move to the American Athletic Conference, I expected the school to hire someone with more pedigree. I wasn’t impressed with Poggi. He’s 63 years old and has never been anything more than an analyst or associate head coach at the FBS level. Being a former offensive lineman and high school coach, I expect Poggi to make the 49ers a more physical team and to relate to recruits. I’m not convinced that he’s fit for this job, though. Charlotte is a young program that needs to be built, so I thought it needed to get someone younger.

Grade: D

Louisville Cardinals head coach Scott Satterfield walks up the sideline during the first quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati Bearcats
Out: Luke Fickell
In: Scott Satterfield

Cincinnati had big shoes to fill with Fickell’s departure, and I don’t think Satterfield is a terrible hire. He had success at Appalachian State – winning 47 games in five seasons. I can’t shy away from his struggles at Louisville, though. I don’t know what happened there. Keep in mind that Cincinnati is making the jump to the Big 12 this year, so it’s not like Satterfield is going back to the Group of 5 either. For now, I’m chalking it up as he needed a change of scenery. We’ll see if Satterfield can maintain what Fickell built.

Grade: C+

NC State offensive coordinator Tim Beck congratulates running back Zonovan ‘Bam’ Knight (7) after the Wolfpack scored during the first half of N.C. State’s game against Furman at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, N.C., Saturday, Sept 18, 2021. Mandatory credit: The News & Observer

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Out: Jamey Chadwell
In: Tim Beck

Like Charlotte, I expected Coastal Carolina to get someone with more pedigree. I think Coastal Carolina is an ascending Group of 5 program, and with its location near the beach it’s going to be able to recruit good players. I’m not a fan of the school’s decision to hire Beck. He’s been an offensive coordinator at several different locations – NC State, Texas, Nebraska – and wasn’t impressive at any of those places. I’m not sure how you can be a good head coach when you’ve been a mediocre coordinator at some prestigious Power 5 programs.

Grade: D

Jackson State Tigers head coach Deion Sanders talks with his players from the sideline as Alabama State Hornets takes on Jackson State Tigers at ASU Stadium in Montgomery, Ala., on Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022. Mandatory credit: The Clarion-Ledger

Colorado Buffaloes
Out: Karl Dorrell
In: Deion Sanders

I think hiring Sanders is exactly what Colorado needs. Colorado was once a proud program in the 1990s and early 2000s. It’s fallen from grace, to say the least. Excluding the 2020 season, Colorado has had a winning season just once since 2006. The school has also finished in the top 40 in 247 Sports recruiting rankings just three times since 2009. Sanders not only brought in high-profile players at Jackson State, but he also won games – posting a record of 23-3 in his last two seasons. I think he’s going to be able to turn things around at Colorado.

Grade: A-

Texas Longhorns head coach Tom Herman walks on the field before a game against the Rice Owls at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

FAU Owls
Out: Willie Taggart
In: Tom Herman

FAU has had a difficult time finding success since Lane Kiffin’s departure. With the school moving to the American this year, it had to land someone with pedigree to get the football program back on track. FAU did what I thought Charlotte and Coastal Carolina should’ve done and swung for the fences and landed Herman. I think this is a good spot for him to get back on his feet. Herman was successful at Houston, which was an ascending school in a rich recruiting area. I consider FAU to be in a similar situation as Houston was when he was there.

Grade: B+

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets interim head coach Brent Key looks on from the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Out: Geoff Collins
In: Brent Key

I thought Key did an excellent job as the interim head coach at Georgia Tech this past season. However, I’m not crazy about the school’s decision to promote someone from a staff that was historically bad – posting a record of 14-32 since 2019. I’ll admit that Key’s resume isn’t that bad. He’s worked as a position coach at good programs like UCF and Alabama. My biggest issue with Georgia Tech’s decision making is that it wasn’t willing to wait for Willie Fritz, who has a better resume than Key and has a good track record as a head coach.

Grade: C

Kent State hired Kenni Burns to be its next head coach. Burns was previously the assistant head coach and running backs coach at Minnesota. Mandatory credit: Cleveland 19 News

Kent State Golden Flashes
Out: Sean Lewis
In: Kenni Burns

Burns has bounced around as an assistant coach at both the FCS and Group of 5 level. Since 2016, he’s worked under P.J. Fleck, who’s one of the more underrated head coaches in the country, at both Western Michigan and Minnesota. That experience is going to be valuable at Kent State. At Minnesota, Burns was effective on the recruiting trail and developed great running backs like Mohamed Ibrahim. He also played at Indiana and has coached throughout the Midwest, so he should be an excellent cultural fit. I think this was a great decision by Kent State.

Grade: B

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers head coach Jamey Chadwell during a game against the Georgia Southern Eagles at Brooks Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

Liberty Flames
Out: Hugh Freeze
In: Jamey Chadwell

Like Cincinnati, Liberty had big shoes to fill after Freeze’s departure. I consider Liberty to be an ascending Group of 5 school, so it did as good of a job as it could by hiring Chadwell. His resume prior Coastal Carolina isn’t that impressive, which is probably why he didn’t get looked at by more Power 5 programs in recent years. However, he won 31 games in his last three seasons at Coastal Carolina. Chadwell is inheriting a pretty good situation from Freeze at Liberty. If he’s successful, I expect him to get more consideration from Power 5 schools.

Grade: A-

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville Cardinals
Out: Scott Satterfield
In: Jeff Brohm

This is one of the best hires of this cycle. Brohm is from Louisville, Ky., and played at Louisville. From a cultural standpoint, he ought to be a perfect fit. He was also an excellent recruiter at Purdue and I think he’ll be able to do the same at Louisville with that Papa John’s NIL money. He has his shortcomings as a head coach, but I don’t know if that was because of him or the situation he had at Purdue. Regardless, he made Purdue relevant for the first time since Drew Brees was there. I expect Louisville to compete in the ACC with Brohm.

Grade: A-

Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive coordinator Zach Arnett against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Out: Mike Leach
In: Zach Arnett

I don’t blame Mississippi State for not conducting a thorough coaching search. I believe Mike Leach was building something special in Starkville, Miss., before his unexpected death. It makes sense to promote someone from the staff he assembled to see if the school is able to build off what he started. Arnett actually has an okay track record as a defensive coordinator, but he hasn’t been able to field a good defense in the SEC. I understand that the SEC is a gauntlet, but I’m not convinced he’s ready to be a Power 5 head coach yet.

Grade: C

Navy promoted defensive coordinator Brian Newberry to be head coach. Mandatory credit: Getty Images

Navy Midshipmen
Out: Ken Niumatalolo
In: Brian Newberry

I’m not sure what to make of this hire by Navy. Like Georgia Tech, I don’t understand promoting someone from a coaching staff that hasn’t been successful in recent years – posting a record of 22-25 since 2019. Newberry won the Broyles Award in 2019, but Navy’s defense hasn’t ranked in the top 50 in the country in scoring each of the last two seasons. I understand the decision to move on from Niumatalolo, but I’m not sure Newberry is the man for the job. The American is the toughest Group of 5 conference even without Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF.

Grade: C-

Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule in action against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Out: Scott Frost
In: Matt Rhule

Rhule is the kind of head coach that Nebraska needs right now. The program hasn’t had a winning season since 2016. It didn’t work out for Rhule in the NFL, but, honestly, how many college coaches succeed at the next level? Rhule has a very good track record of building programs at the collegiate level. He did it at Temple and he did it at Baylor – winning at least 10 games within three years at both places. He also has ties to the Midwest and in Big 12 territory. This feels like a great fit for both Rhule and Nebraska. I’ll be shocked if it doesn’t work.

Grade: A

Washington State offensive coordinator Eric Morris was named the head coach at North Texas. Mandatory credit: Associated Press

North Texas Mean Green
Out: Seth Littrell
In: Eric Morris

Once I did some research, I think this is a very good hire by North Texas. Morris is from Texas and played at Texas Tech. He also comes from the Mike Leach coaching tree and has spent the majority of his coaching career in Texas, with stops at Houston and Texas Tech as an assistant and as the head coach at Incarnate Word. He posted a record of 24-18 at Incarnate Word and won 10 games in his last season, which had never happened in program history. Morris strikes me as a young coach on the rise. I think he’s going to find success at North Texas.

Grade: A-

Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters was named Purdue’s next head coach. Mandatory credit: Getty Images

Purdue Boilermakers
Out: Jeff Brohm
In: Ryan Walters

I’d never heard of Walters until Purdue hired him. After doing some research, he actually has a great track record as a defensive coordinator since 2018 at both Missouri and Illinois. Excluding the 2020 season, Walters’ defenses have ranked in the top 45 in the country in scoring and haven’t allowed more than 24.4 points per game during that stretch. This past year at Illinois, his defense ranked No. 1 in the country in scoring. Purdue has become familiar with him each of the last two seasons. We’ll see if he’s ready to be a Power 5 head coach.

Grade: B-

Tennessee Offensive Coordinator and Tight Ends Coach Alex Golesh walks on the field before an SEC football game between Tennessee and Kentucky at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky. on Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. Mandatory credit: The Knoxville News-Sentinel

South Florida Bulls
Out: Jeff Scott
In: Alex Golesh

Golesh is younger than 40 years old, but his resume is impressive. He’s worked under quality head coaches in Matt Campbell and Josh Heupel. He’s also been an assistant coach at Power 5 programs like Illinois, Iowa State, and Tennessee, and even at top Group of 5 programs like Toledo and UCF. As Tennessee’s offensive coordinator, his offense has averaged 42.6 points per game and 6.6 yards per play. South Florida hasn’t made a bowl game since 2018 and has struggled offensively during that stretch. I think Golesh has what it takes to turn things around.

Grade: B

Sacramento State Hornets head coach Troy Taylor against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Stanford Cardinal
Out: David Shaw
In: Troy Taylor

I wasn’t sure what to expect from Stanford in its search for a new head coach. Hiring Taylor was definitely an outside-the-box decision, but one that I think might work. Taylor has a great track record as an FCS head coach – posting a record of 30-8 in three seasons at Sacramento State. He’s also from Northern California, went to school at Cal, worked as an assistant at Pac-12 schools, and used to be a high school head coach in California. I think Taylor is going to be a great cultural fit at Stanford and should be able to recruit the talent in the state.

Grade: A-

Texas State hired G.J. Kinne to be its next football coach this week, who previously was the head coach at Incarnate Word. Mandatory credit: Incarnate Word Athletics

Texas State Bobcats
Out: Jake Spavital
In: G.J. Kinne

Kinne has worked under quality head coaches like Gus Malzahn, Nick Rolovich, and Doug Pederson. He was successful as a head coach at the FCS level. He’s also from Texas and played at Texas and Tulsa, so he’s going to be familiar with the recruiting area. My only issue with the decision to hire Kinne is that he doesn’t have much experience. He was working with “offensive special projects” in Philadelphia and has quickly risen to being a Group of 5 head coach in four years. He also inherited a great situation from Morris at Incarnate Word.

Grade: B-

Tulsa hired Ohio State offensive coordinator and tight ends coach Kevin Wilson to be its next head coach. Wilson was previously the head coach at Indiana. Mandatory credit: Getty Images

Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Out: Philip Montgomery
In: Kevin Wilson

I’m not a fan of this decision by Tulsa. Wilson has been an offensive coordinator since the 1990s and didn’t become a head coach until 2011. That’s typically a bad sign. He also wasn’t successful as the head coach at Indiana – posting a record of 26-47 in six seasons. Excluding the 2020 season, Tulsa has had two winning seasons since 2011. I’m not convinced Wilson, who’s going to turn 62 this year, is the man for the job. The only reason why I don’t give this hire a worse grade is because Wilson has plenty of experience and has worked under quality head coaches.

Grade: C-

Trent Dilfer was introduced as the seventh head football coach in UAB history, Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2022, at the UAB Alumni House in Birmingham, Ala. Mandatory credit: UAB Athletics

UAB Blazers
Out: Bill Clark
In: Trent Dilfer

UAB’s decision to hire Dilfer came out of left field. I hadn’t heard his name in any of these coaching searches until UAB made it official to hire him. It’s easy to criticize this decision because Dilfer doesn’t have any coaching experience outside of high school. However, I think this might end up working out. I’ve heard Dilfer talk for years – whether from his days as an analyst at ESPN to appearances on sports podcasts – and he’s actually quite insightful. There’s a big difference between being a high school head coach and being a Group of 5 head coach, though.

Grade: C-

Arkansas Defensive Coordinator Barry Odom directs his players, Saturday, November 13, 2021 before the start of a football game at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La. Mandatory credit: The Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

UNLV Rebels
Out: Marcus Arroyo
In: Barry Odom

This might end up being a great decision by UNLV, which is a program that has made two bowl games since 2000 (yes, you read that right). I’m honestly surprised that UNLV was able to get a coach of Odom’s caliber, who has worked in the SEC and at a top Group of 5 program in Memphis. He also has a pretty good track record as a recruiter and UNLV sits in the middle of a recruiting hot bed in Las Vegas. Odom wasn’t a successful Power 5 head coach, but the pressure will be off him at UNLV. This feels like a good fit for both sides.

Grade: B

Former Louisville offensive coordinator was named the head coach at Western Michigan. Mandatory credit: Associated Press

Western Michigan Broncos
Out: Tim Lester
In: Lance Taylor

I really like this hire by Western Michigan. Taylor has coaching experience in both college and the NFL. He’s been a Power 5 assistant coach for years, including stops at prestigious programs like Stanford, Notre Dame, and Louisville. Taylor has worked under great head coaches like Nick Saban, Rex Ryan, Ron Rivera, and Brian Kelly. He also has an excellent track record as a recruiter while he was at each of those schools. Even though he’s not from the Midwest, I think he’s going to be able to be able to bring in quality players to Western Michigan.

Grade: B+

Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell looks on against Tulane Green Wave during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Wisconsin Badgers
Out: Paul Chryst
In: Luke Fickell

Wisconsin easily made the best hire of this coaching carousel. Fickell’s track record is impressive, dating back to his days as an assistant coach at Ohio State. He won at least nine games in each of his last five seasons as Cincinnati’s head coach, including two appearances in a New Year’s Six bowl game and an appearance in the College Football Playoff. Even though he’s never coached outside of Ohio, I’m confident that he’s going to be successful at Wisconsin. He’s a Midwest guy and comes from a defensive background, so I think he’ll be an excellent cultural fit.

Grade: A

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Unpopular opinion: College Football Playoff expansion isn’t necessary

Movie quote of the day:

“What about my prime, Mick? At least you had a prime! I had no prime, I had nothin’!”

– Rocky Balboa, “Rocky” (1976)

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart holds the National Championship trophy after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2022 CFP college football national championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been in the works for a little over a year, but it’s now official that the College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams starting in 2024.

Under the new format, the first round of the Playoff will be held at either the home field of the higher-seeded team or at another site designated by the higher-seeded team. The quarterfinal and semifinal games will be played in bowls (Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl) on a rotating basis. Cities around the country will continue to bid to host the national championship.

The top four seeds, and the teams that will get first-round bye weeks, will be determined by the highest ranked conference champions in the selection committee’s rankings. The other eight spots will be determined by the next highest ranked teams, including a guaranteed spot for a Group of 5 representative.

The College Football Playoff will include 12 teams , starting with the 2024 season. https://t.co/scVp5MyLOH

— The Associated Press (@AP) December 2, 2022

If the new format was implemented this year, this is what the Playoff seeding/matchups would look like:

Top four teams:

No. 1 Georgia (13-0)
No. 2 Michigan (13-0)
No. 3 Clemson (11-2)
No. 4 Utah (10-3)

First round matchups:

No. 9 Kansas State (10-3) at No. 8 Tennessee (10-2)
No. 12 Tulane (11-2) at No. 5 TCU (12-1)
No. 11 Penn State (10-2) at No. 6 Ohio State (11-1)
No. 10 USC (11-2) at No. 7 Alabama (10-2)

College football fans have been pounding the table for changes to the postseason for decades. It started with a simple structured format, which is how we got the BCS. Then, we wanted more of the pro model, which is how we got the Playoff. Unlike most college football fans, though, I haven’t been one to argue for an expanded playoff. It’s not because I don’t want the chance to watch more football (I do), nor that I’m worried that it might lessen the regular season (I’m not convinced that it will), nor that I’m against making money (I’m a capitalist).

So, what’s my issue with an expanded postseason? It comes down to the lack of parity in college football.

College Football Playoff executive director Bill Hancock during a CFP press conference at Banc of California Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve had a four-team playoff since 2014. During that time, we’ve had only 14 schools make an appearance. For context, there are currently 131 schools at the FBS level, which includes the Power 5 and Group of 5 conferences, and 65 of those schools (including Notre Dame) are members of Power 5 conferences. Thirteen of the 14 schools that have appeared in the Playoff have come from the Power 5 conferences and one from a Group of 5 conference (until next year).

That’s a mere 20% of Power 5 schools and 10.6% of FBS schools have made an appearance in the Playoff, which obviously isn’t a high percentage. Plus, five of those 13 Power 5 schools have made at least three appearances in nine years. So, close to 40% of the teams that have made the Playoff have been there more than once.

I realize that having a four-team playoff means fewer teams getting opportunities. However, when you factor in that five schools have used up 25 of the 36 playoff spots, the list of schools actually competing to win the national championship is very exclusive.

On top of that, the Playoff games haven’t been that competitive. The winning teams in the semifinal games have outscored the losing teams 617-280. Only three of the 16 semifinal games have been decided by one possession. The losing team in nine of those 16 games has been held to 20 or fewer points.

Yes, you’re reading those numbers right. Just take a look:

Year	Winner	Points	Loser	Points
2014	No. 2 Oregon	59	No. 3 Florida State	20
	No. 4 Ohio State	42	No. 1 Alabama	35
2015	No. 1 Clemson	37	No. 4 Oklahoma	17
	No. 2 Alabama	38	No. 3 Michigan State	0
2016	No. 1 Alabama	24	No. 4 Washington	7
	No. 2 Clemson	31	No. 3 Ohio State	0
2017	No. 3 Georgia	54 (OT)	No. 2 Oklahoma	48 (OT)
	No. 4 Alabama	24	No. 1 Clemson	6
2018	No. 1 Alabama	45	No. 4 Oklahoma	34
	No. 2 Clemson	30	No. 3 Notre Dame	3
2019	No. 1 LSU	63	No. 4 Oklahoma	28
	No. 3 Clemson	29	No. 2 Ohio State	23
2020	No. 1 Alabama	31	No. 4 Notre Dame	14
	No. 3 Ohio State	49	No. 2 Clemson	28
2021	No. 1 Alabama	27	No. 4 Cincinnati	6
	No. 3 Georgia	34	No. 2 Michigan	11
Point total		617		280

The outcomes of each of the College Football Playoff semifinal games since 2014

The national championships haven’t been that competitive either:

Year	Winner	Points	Loser	Points
2014	No. 4 Ohio State	42	No. 2 Oregon	20
2015	No. 2 Alabama	45	No. 1 Clemson	40
2016	No. 2 Clemson	35	No. 1 Alabama	31
2017	No. 4 Alabama	26 (OT)	No. 3 Georgia	23 (OT)
2018	No. 2 Clemson	44	No. 1 Alabama	16
2019	No. 1 LSU	42	No. 3 Clemson	25
2020	No. 1 Alabama	52	No. 3 Ohio State	24
2021	No. 3 Georgia	33	No. 1 Alabama	18
Point total		319		197

The outcomes of each of the College Football Playoff national championships since 2014

Remember back in the days of the BCS when we thought there were plenty of teams good enough to win the national championship? That’s why the four-team playoff was created, so that the schools that we thought weren’t getting a fair shake from the computer would get an opportunity. The four-team playoff format was designed to include the best of the best teams in college football on a yearly basis. However, I think the four-team playoff format has demonstrated is that there is a clear gap between the top programs with the rest of the country. That’s why only six of the 24 semifinal games/national championships that have been played have been decided by one possession.

Is the selection committee to blame for the lopsided results in the Playoff and national championships? Is it not getting the right four teams on a yearly basis? Possibly. I’ve had my issues with the committee over the years, but I actually think it’s been right more times than it’s been wrong when it comes to choosing the top four teams. My criticism of the committee has usually come from how it’s ranked teams outside of the top four spots.

Now, I want to be clear that I think some good can come from expanding the Playoff to 12 teams:

1. More opportunities for schools: As a lifelong fan and alumnus of a Tier 2 school, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want to see it have a better chance to compete in the Playoff every season.
2. It should all but guarantee that the committee will get the teams right on a yearly basis: The argument every year is if the committee got the top four teams right and if the fifth- or sixth-best team in the rankings were snubbed. With 12 teams now getting in, that argument should be put to rest. However, there will still be the argument if the teams outside the top 10 were snubbed.
3. No more punishing teams for playing in a conference championship: One of the dumbest customs that we’ve accepted over the years is to punish schools for losing a conference championship. One of the best examples of this came in 2017. That year, Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, rose to No. 2 in the committee’s rankings, and represented the SEC West division in the conference championship. Auburn went on to lose to Georgia – a team it beat in the regular season – in the SEC Championship. The committee dropped Auburn five spots the following week and put Alabama in the Playoff. Auburn then had to compete in the Peach Bowl and watch Alabama go on to win the national championship. I’ve always hated that custom because it makes zero sense. A team shouldn’t be punished for playing in a 13th game, and another team shouldn’t be rewarded because it didn’t have to play a 13th game. With the committee keeping TCU in the Playoff this year despite losing its conference championship, I think we might be seeing the end to that custom. That’s especially going to be true with an expanded playoff.

The College Football Playoff National Championship trophy on display during a 2023 CFP National Championship Kickoff press conference at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

I’ll wrap this post up by saying that there isn’t enough talent spread out to justify expanding the Playoff. There’s a parity problem in college football right now. The lopsided results of the semifinal games/national championships prove that. Do you think the lower seeded teams have a realistic chance of knocking off the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the quarterfinal round on a yearly basis? The evidence shows that the answer to that question is no.

With college football being so top heavy, why would the powers that be choose to expand the Playoff? We all know the answer to that is money. Adding more schools means more games, which means more money lining everyone’s pockets.

Yes, an expanded playoff will lead to more opportunities for the Tier 2 and Tier 3 schools to crack the Playoff. However, it’s also going to lead to more opportunities for the Tier 1 schools that haven’t been able to crack the four-team playoff so far. Let’s not kid ourselves, those are the schools that have the most to gain from this decision. The committee is much more likely to choose Tier 1 schools with large alumni bases that can move the needle, which will lead to even more money, over the Tier 2 or Tier 3 that don’t have the same amount of resources.

My thought process has always been that, if you want to expand the Playoff, add two more teams and give bye weeks to the two highest-ranked teams. Instead, we’re diving headfirst into the deep end by adding eight schools. I’m not convinced that that’s necessary and will only lead to more lopsided results.

Like everyone else, though, I’ll still tune in to watch.

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College football Week 14 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“We’re still pioneers, we barely begun. Our greatest accomplishments cannot be behind us, cause our destiny lies above us.”

– Joseph Cooper, “Interstellar” (2014)

Week 13 record: 6-6 (50%)
2022 record: 101-55 (64.7%)
All-time record: 926-454 (67.1%)

Friday:

UTSA Roadrunners running back Brenden Brady (5) celebrates his touchdown with tight end Oscar Cardenas (9) during the second half against the Army Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Conference USA Championship
North Texas (7-5) at UTSA (10-2)
Alamodome
San Antonio
Line: UTSA -8.5
Over/under: 70

I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out North Texas, but I’m not convinced that it has the defense to win this game. The Mean Green are allowing 30.3 points per game against FBS competition. That’s likely not going to be good enough to knock off UTSA. In six home games, the Roadrunners have averaged 39 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. I also think UTSA has the better head coach in Jeff Traylor.

Prediction: UTSA 41, North Texas 31

USC Trojans defensive back Calen Bullock (7) reacts after an interception against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with defensive back Max Williams (4) and defensive back Latrell McCutchin (21) during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 Championship
No. 11 Utah (9-3) vs. No. 4 USC (11-1)
Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas
Line: USC -2.5
Over/under: 67.5

Utah poses a lot of problems for USC. The Utes are very good in the trenches and their offense could pick part the Trojans, who’ve allowed 28.5 points per game against Power 5 opponents. However, it’s hard to pick against Caleb Williams right now. In his last five games, he’s completed 68.3% of his passes, averaged 9.8 yards per pass attempt, and thrown 15 touchdowns and two interceptions.

Prediction: USC 38, Utah 31

Saturday:

TCU Horned Frogs safety Millard Bradford (28) celebrates his 36-yard interception returned for a touchdown against the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12 Championship
No. 10 Kansas State (9-3) vs. No. 3 TCU (12-0)
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Line: TCU -2
Over/under: 61.5

This was the toughest game to pick this week. Both teams are playing very well right now. I’m going to give the slight advantage to TCU, though. The Horned Frogs have the more talented team. They also have a well-rounded offense – ranking in the top 40 in the country in passing efficiency, rushing yards per game, and third-down conversion rate. Kansas State is going to have a difficult time defensively.

Prediction: TCU 30, Kansas State 27

Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) throws a pass against the San Diego State Aztecs during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

MAC Championship
Toledo (7-5) at Ohio (9-3)
Ford Field
Detroit
Line: Toledo -3
Over/under: 54.5

I’m surprised that Vegas considers Toledo to be the favorite in this game. The Rockets haven’t been as good on the offensive side of the ball in their last five games – averaging just 26.2 points per game compared to the 38.4 points per game in their first seven games. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with Ohio. The Bobcats are playing at a high level right now – winners of eight of their last nine games.

Prediction: Ohio 27, Toledo 23

Troy Trojans quarterback Gunnar Watson (18) calls a play against the Army Black Knights during the second half at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Sun Belt Championship
Coastal Carolina (9-2) at Troy (10-2)
Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, Ala.
Line: Troy -8.5
Over/under: 47.5

I think Coastal Carolina’s record is inflated. Five of its nine wins were by one possession. The Chanticleers also shouldn’t be in this game since James Madison can’t compete due to FCS-to-FBS transition rules. I think Troy is the better team and in a better position to win since it’s won nine games in a row. The Trojans have also allowed an average of 11.2 points per game at home.

Prediction: Troy 27, Coastal Carolina 17

Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) hands off to running back George Holani (24) during the first half against the Utah State Aggies at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Mountain West Championship
Fresno State (8-4) at Boise State (9-3)
Albertsons Stadium
Boise, Idaho
Line: Boise State -3
Over/under: 54

Both of these teams are playing at a high level right now, so this should be an entertaining game. I’m going to give the slight advantage to Boise State. The Broncos’ offense has been excellent at home this season – averaging 38.8 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. Fresno State’s defense is allowing 26.1 points per game on the road. I’m not convinced the Bulldogs will be able to get off the field.

Prediction: Boise State 31, Fresno State 24

Tulane Green Wave running back Tyjae Spears (22) runs for a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

American Athletic Conference Championship
No. 22 UCF (9-3) at No. 18 Tulane (10-2)
Yulman Stadium
New Orleans
Line: Tulane -4
Over/under: 56.5

I have a feeling Tulane is going to get the better of UCF this time around. The Knights have struggled defensively on the road – allowing 29.2 points per game, 6.0 yards per play, and 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. The Green Wave’s offense ranks in the top 35 in the country in passing efficiency and rushing yards per game. They play complimentary football, which will be the difference in this game.

Prediction: Tulane 34, UCF 28

Clemson running back Will Shipley (1) runs near South Carolina defensive back Nick Emmanwori (21) during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina on Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

ACC Championship
No. 9 Clemson (10-2) vs. No. 23 North Carolina (9-3)
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, N.C.
Line: Clemson -7.5
Over/under: 63.5

I don’t trust Clemson right now, but I expect it to win this game. North Carolina’s defense has struggled against Power 5 opponents this season – allowing 27.8 points per game, 5.9 yards per play, and 161.8 rushing yards per game. I expect the Tigers to run the ball effectively with Will Shipley, who averages 5.9 yards per rush, and to be in control against the Tar Heels.

Prediction: Clemson 35, North Carolina 31

Michigan Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards (7) runs during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten Championship
Purdue (8-4) vs. No. 2 Michigan (12-0)
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis
Line: Michigan -16.5
Over/under: 51.5

This is going to be a difficult matchup for Purdue to win. The Boilermakers lean heavily on their passing attack, which makes their offense very one-dimensional. Michigan’s defense is one of the best in the country against the pass – allowing only 5.6 yards per throw, ranking No. 3 in pass efficiency, and ranking No. 12 in third-down defense. I think the Wolverines win comfortably.

Prediction: Michigan 35, Purdue 17

Game of the week:

Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) reacts with offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (69) after catching a touchdown pass against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

SEC Championship
No. 14 LSU (9-3) at No. 1 Georgia (12-0)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
Line: Georgia -17.5
Over/under: 52.5

After subpar performances in its last two games against Power 5 opponents, including a loss to Texas A&M last week, I expect Brian Kelly to have LSU buttoned up. Georgia is the more talented team and is in a much better position to win this game, though. I think the Bulldogs will emerge victorious. Their defense has allowed only 11.7 points per game and 4.3 yards per play since Week 5.

Prediction: Georgia 34, LSU 21

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College football Week 1 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“We’ve got two stories here: a story about degenerate clergy, and a story about a bunch of lawyers turning child abuse into a cottage industry. Which story do you want us to write? Because we’re writing one of them.”

– Walter Robinson, “Spotlight” (2016)

2021 record: 103-70 (59.5%)
All-time record: 825-399 (67.4%)

Thursday:

Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi watches the action during the second quarter against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

West Virginia at No. 17 Pitt
Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh
Line: Pitt -7
Over/under: 51.5

After 11 years, the Backyard Brawl is finally back. Considering that both teams are breaking in new offensive coordinators and quarterbacks, I’d take the under. A low-scoring game likely gives Pitt the advantage. The Panthers are returning each of their top five pass rushers from last year’s defense, which averaged 4.3 sacks per game. That doesn’t bode well for West Virginia’s offensive line, which struggled last year. I hate to do it, but I’ll go with Pitt to scrape out a win.

Prediction: Pitt 24, West Virginia 21

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford (14) throws a pass against the Auburn Tigers during the first quarter at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State at Purdue
Ross-Ade Stadium
West Lafayette, Ind.
Line: Penn State -3.5
Over/under: 53.5

I really want to pick Purdue. I think the Boilermakers are going to be a much better team than people think and I respect Jeff Brohm as a head coach. Purdue has what it takes to move the ball and score points on Penn State’s defense. I’m not sure the Boilermakers are good enough in the trenches or defensively, though. I expect a lot of points to be scored, but I’m going to give the slight advantage to the Nittany Lions now that they have a healthy Sean Clifford.

Prediction: Penn State 34, Purdue 28

Friday:

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) throws a pass against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

TCU at Colorado
Folsom Field
Boulder, Colo.
Line: TCU -13.5
Over/under: 55.5

I realize that Colorado isn’t that good, but this feels like it could be a tricky game for TCU. A primetime game in a high altitude atmosphere isn’t going to be easy. The Horned Frogs are also breaking in a new coaching staff, so I could see a scenario where they don’t play their best game. TCU has the talent advantage, though, and Vegas considers it to be a heavy favorite. I’m also not sure the Buffaloes will be able to expose any matchups. The Horned Frogs should get the win.

Prediction: TCU 35, Colorado 21

Saturday:

Boston College Eagles quarterback Phil Jurkovec (5) passes against the Florida State Seminoles during the first half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Rutgers at Boston College
Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, Mass.
Line: Boston College -7
Over/under: 48.5

I’m not sure that Rutgers has what it takes to go on the road and win this game. Clearly Vegas agrees because I didn’t expect Boston College to be such a strong favorite. I think Jeff Hafley has done a decent job the last few years as the Eagles’ head coach. Phil Jurkovec is also one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country. Boston College likely has the quarterback, coaching, and home-field advantage. That’s gonna be a lot for the Scarlet Knights to overcome.

Prediction: Boston College 31, Rutgers 20

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown on the sideline against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina at Appalachian State
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, N.C.
Line: North Carolina -1
Over/under: 55.5

I wouldn’t sleep on this game. North Carolina lost a lot of production from last year and is breaking in a new quarterback. Appalachian State is also one of the better Group of 5 programs in the country. Being a “little brother” in the state, there’s a very good chance that the Mountaineers have this game circled. I expect Appalachian State to be ready, but the Tar Heels have a substantial talent advantage. I think North Carolina finds a way to get the win.

Prediction: North Carolina 28, Appalachian State 24

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart talks with an official during the second half against the Clemson Tigers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Oregon at No. 3 Georgia
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
Line: Georgia -17.5
Over/under: 52.5

Oregon has recruited so well the last few years. A part of me thinks that the Ducks might have a chance of winning. Georgia has to replace a lot of production from last year’s historically great defense. Oregon is breaking in a new coaching staff, but Dan Lanning used to coach under Kirby Smart. That might be enough to keep this game interesting. The Bulldogs are in a much better spot as a program, though. They should be able to get a convincing win.

Prediction: Georgia 35, Oregon 17

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) throws the ball against the LSU Tigers in the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

No. 23 Cincinnati at No. 19 Arkansas
Razorback Stadium
Fayetteville, Ark.
Line: Arkansas -6.5
Over/under: 52.5

I realize that Cincinnati is losing a lot of production from last year, but I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out the Bearcats in this matchup. Luke Fickell has recruited well and established a winning culture at Cincinnati. I have a feeling that the Bearcats will keep this game close. However, Arkansas’ talent advantage and rushing attack ought to wear down Cincinnati as the game progresses. I expect the Razorbacks to pull away in the second half and get the win.

Prediction: Arkansas 31, Cincinnati 21

Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune (3) drops back to pass against the Memphis Tigers in the fourth quarter at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

No. 24 Houston at UTSA
Alamodome
San Antonio
Line: Houston -4
Over/under: 61.5

Houston is likely going to be in the running for the Group of 5 representative in a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. So, I feel like I have to pick the Cougars to win this game. Jeff Traylor has done an excellent job building up UTSA’s program, but he had some turnover on the defensive side of the ball. Houston has the better head coach and quarterback. The Cougars are also going to have a substantial talent advantage. Getting the win is going to be difficult for the Roadrunners.

Prediction: Houston 31, UTSA 27

Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising (7) drops back to pass in the first quarter against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Utah at Florida
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Gainesville, Fla.
Line: Utah -3
Over/under: 50.5

I really like Utah as a team this season, but this was a tough game to predict. This is a long road trip for the Utes and in a hostile environment. There’s also a good chance that Florida has the talent advantage. I expect Utah to have the advantage in the trenches, though, which will likely decide the game. I don’t think the Gators will be able to match the physicality of the Utes. I think Billy Napier and Florida will make things interesting, but Utah will pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Utah 28, Florida 21

Oregon State Beavers quarterback Chance Nolan (10) gestures against the Utah State Aggies in the first half of the 2021 LA Bowl at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State at Oregon State
Resar Stadium
Corvallis, Ore.
Line: Oregon State -2.5
Over/under: 56.5

I’ve been on the fence about this game all week. I’ve said on this blog before that I’m high on Oregon State this season and I respect Boise State as a Group of 5 program. I’m going to give the Beavers the advantage, though. I think Jonathan Smith is an underrated head coach and Oregon State is returning a lot of production from last year’s seven-win team, particularly in the trenches. I also have no idea what to expect from the Broncos, who were inconsistent last year in Andy Avalos’ first year.

Prediction: Oregon State 31, Boise State 24

Sunday:

LSU Tigers wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (1) runs against Auburn Tigers safety Zion Puckett (10) during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State at LSU
Caesars Superdome
New Orleans
Line: LSU -3
Over/under: 51.5

I don’t have any idea what to make of either of these teams. Mike Norvell is still trying to build a successful program at Florida State and Brian Kelly is in his first season at LSU. I’m going to pick the Tigers to win this matchup, though. Going by the last four recruiting cycles, LSU has the more talented team and I think Kelly is the better head coach. I also think the Tigers’ defensive front is going to cause a lot of problems for the Seminoles’ offensive line, which has struggled in recent years.

Prediction: LSU 27, Florida State 20

Game of the week:

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball in the first quarter against the Utah Utes during the 2022 Rose Bowl at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Ohio State
Ohio Stadium
Columbus, Ohio
Line: Ohio State -17
Over/under: 59.5

This feels like a tough matchup for Marcus Freeman in his first official game as Notre Dame’s head coach. Ohio State is going to have one of the best offenses in the country – averaging 45.6 points per game and 7.8 yards per play last year. The Fighting Irish really weren’t that good defensively in 2021 – allowing 24 points or more six times in 13 games. I expect Notre Dame to be improved on that side of the ball, but slowing down the Buckeyes’ offense is going to be challenging.

Prediction: Ohio State 41, Notre Dame 24

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