2024 NCAA Tournament predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”

— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)

It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.

Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.

We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.

As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.

Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

First Four — Dayton, Ohio

No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)

I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.

Winner: Howard

No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)

Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.

Winner: Colorado State

No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)

There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.

Winner: Montana State

No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)

Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.

Winner: Colorado

Round of 64

Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 16 Stetson (22-12) vs. No. 1 UConn (31-3) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.

Winner: UConn

No. 9 Northwestern (21-11) vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.

Winner: Florida Atlantic

No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.

We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.

Winner: San Diego State

No. 13 Yale (22-9) vs. No. 4 Auburn (27-7) — Spokane, Wash.

Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.

Winner: Auburn

No. 11 Duquesne (24-11) vs. No. 6 BYU (23-10) — Omaha, Neb.

Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: BYU

No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.

The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.

The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.

Winner: Drake

No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.

I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.

Winner: Iowa State

North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.

North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.

Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Winner: Michigan State

No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.

I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.

Winner: Grand Canyon

No. 13 Charleston (27-7) vs. No. 4 Alabama (21-11) — Spokane, Wash.

Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.

I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.

Winner: New Mexico

No. 14 Colgate (25-9) vs. No. 3 Baylor (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City

I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Winner: Nevada

No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City

I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.

Winner: Arizona

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 16 Longwood (21-13) vs. No. 1 Houston (30-4) — Memphis, Tenn.

I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.

Winner: Houston

No. 9 Texas A&M (20-14) vs. No. 8 Nebraska (23-10) — Memphis, Tenn.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.

Winner: Texas A&M

No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.

Winner: Duke

No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh

I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 14 Oakland (23-11) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.

Winner: Kentucky

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis

This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.

Winner: Florida

No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis

I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.

Winner: Marquette

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis

I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.

Winner: Purdue

No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis

Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.

Winner: TCU

No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City

McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.

Winner: Kansas

No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh

I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.

Winner: Oregon

No. 14 Akron (24-10) vs. No. 3 Creighton (23-9) — Pittsburgh

Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.

Winner: Creighton

No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.

I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.

Winner: Texas

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.

Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.

Winner: Tennessee

Round of 32

Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 1 UConn — Brooklyn, N.Y.

Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.

Winner: UConn

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.

I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.

Winner: Auburn

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.

This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.

Winner: Illinois

No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.

Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.

Winner: Iowa State

Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional

No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.

I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.

Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.

Winner: Alabama

No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.

New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.

Winner: Baylor

No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City

I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.

Winner: Arizona

Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston — Memphis, Tenn.

This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.

Winner: Houston

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.

I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh

Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.

Winner: Texas Tech

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis

I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.

Winner: Florida

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional

No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis

This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.

Winner: Purdue

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City

If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh

Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.

Winner: Creighton

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.

I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Sweet 16

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional semifinals — Boston

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn

If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.

Winner: Illinois

Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina

As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.

Winner: North Carolina

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona

I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.

Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional semifinals — Dallas

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston

Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.

Winner: Houston

No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech

I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.

Winner: Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue

This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.

Winner: Gonzaga

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.

Winner: Creighton

Elite Eight

Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

East Regional final — Boston

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn

I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.

Winner: UConn

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

West Regional final — Los Angeles

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina

Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.

Winner: North Carolina

Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

South Regional final — Dallas

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston

These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.

Winner: Houston

Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Midwest Regional final — Detroit

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton

I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.

Winner: Creighton

Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.

Winner: UConn

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston

I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.

Winner: Houston

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.

National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn

These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.

I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.

Winner: UConn

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Which school will be the next dynasty in college football?

Movie quote of the day:

“No that’s fame. Fame has a fifteen minute half-life, infamy lasts a little longer.”

— Mike Wallace, “The Insider” (1999)

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during the game against New Mexico State at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Collegiate and professional sports are often fueled by dynasties, particularly in college football. The most recent dynasty that we’ve witnessed in college football has been the Nick Saban-coached Alabama program. For the last 16 years, the Crimson Tide posted a record of 199-23, made the College Football Playoff eight times in 10 seasons, and won six national championships.

With Saban retiring, I have to wonder which program will take up the mantle as the next dynasty. College football has changed so much in its history, but having a dynasty in the sport has pretty much been a constant. I went back 90 years and was able to pinpoint when there was a clear top program in the country, sometimes even two top programs. I compiled a list of programs (below) that won at least two national championships within a short timeframe, or won at least three national championships over the course of a decade or longer, along with the head coaches that led the programs:

• 2009-23 — Alabama (Nick Saban)
• 2006-08 — Florida (Urban Meyer)
• 2003-05 — USC (Pete Carroll)
• 1992-2002 — Florida State (Bobby Bowden)/Nebraska (Tom Osborne)
• 1983-91 — Miami (multiple head coaches)
• 1971-82 — Alabama (Paul “Bear” Bryant)/Ohio State (Woody Hayes)
• 1950-57 — Oklahoma (Bud Wilkinson)
• 1941-49 — Notre Dame (Frank Leahy)
• 1930-40 — Michigan (multiple head coaches)

In all likelihood, we’ll never again see a program have the kind of sustained success that Alabama has had for the last 16 years. There’s a chance that the next dynasty will be more short lived, like when Florida or USC were at the top of college football. There’s also a chance that we’ll get parity like in the NFL, but history says that’s unlikely to happen. I’m pretty confident that at least one program will slide into the role that the Crimson Tide have occupied recently. I think there are currently 12 programs that are the most likely candidates.

University of Alabama new head football coach Kalen DeBoer speaks during a press conference in the North end zone at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama Crimson Tide

The odds of Alabama maintaining the level of success it had with Saban are slim. I’m not convinced that the odds are zero, though. The Crimson Tide have finished in the top three in the country in recruiting each of the last five years. Alabama’s athletic department and donors are flushed with cash, which bodes well for the NIL era. I also think Kalen DeBoer is a great replacement for Saban. He had success at Washington and has a record of 104-12 as a head coach.

Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney looks on during the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

Clemson Tigers

The last couple of years haven’t gone well for Clemson, but I had a difficult time leaving it off my list. Aside from Alabama, no program has had more success in the last decade than the Tigers. There was a five-season stretch between 2015-19 when Clemson was competing for national championships, winning it all in 2016 and 2018. Dabo Swinney likely needs to embrace NIL and the transfer portal, though, in order for the Tigers to get back to that level of success.

Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders during the first half of the spring game at Folsom Filed. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado Buffaloes

I’ll admit, I had fun with this one. Colorado has really struggled to have success since the Bill McCartney years, when it won a national championship in 1990. Even though he’s somewhat of a polarizing figure, Deion Sanders has an appeal to young players that can’t be overlooked. He’s embracing the transfer portal and has already lured top recruits to Boulder. I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that he’s building something special with the Buffaloes.

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell is excited during the fourth quarter against the Louisiana State Tigers at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State Seminoles

We’re not that far removed from when Florida State was the top program in college football under Bobby Bowden. The Seminoles won 10 games or more in 14 straight seasons, including two national championships in the 1990s. Mike Norvell has recruited at a high level, particularly within the state of Florida, and pulled some great players from the transfer portal. There’s a chance Norvell can get the Seminoles back to what they were under Bowden.

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart reacts on the sideline during the game against the Missouri Tigers during the first half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia Bulldogs

This is the most obvious school to take up the mantle as college football’s next dynasty. Kirby Smart was an assistant coach under Saban for 11 seasons at three different stops. He led Georgia to back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022, and the program will be in a good position to win it all in 2024. Five years from now, we’ll probably look back on the start of the 2020 decade as the beginning of Georgia’s reign of dominance.

LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly looks on against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

LSU Tigers

LSU has a chance to really take off under Brian Kelly. Louisiana produces some of the best high school football talent in the country. Kelly brought in top eight recruiting classes the last two cycles, and he’s won 10 games in each of his first two seasons with the Tigers. I doubt Kelly is scratching the surface of what he’s capable of doing at LSU. The only thing going against the Tigers is that the SEC is already loaded with great coaches and programs.

Michigan Wolverines interim head coach Sherrone Moore talks on the sideline during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Wolverines

Even though Jim Harbaugh just left for the NFL, I had a difficult time keeping Michigan off my list. Harbaugh did an excellent job closing the gap between the Wolverines and the top programs in the country during his tenure. That’s why Michigan won the national championship last year. I think hiring Sherrone Moore is the best way to retain the success that Harbaugh built. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolverines stay at the top.

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio State Buckeyes

I don’t see why Ohio State can’t become the top program in college football, especially now that Harbaugh isn’t at Michigan anymore. We know that Ryan Day knows what he’s doing offensively and the Buckeyes took steps in the right direction on the defensive side of the ball last year. Ohio State always recruits at a high level and has spent A LOT money to be better when it comes to NIL. The Buckeyes have what it takes to be the next Alabama.

Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks up while going through game notes during the first half against the Utah Utes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Ducks

With Phil Knight and Nike in its corner, Oregon is poised to dominate the NIL era. It’s not like the Ducks haven’t had success in recent years, either. They’ve won 10 games or more 11 times in the last 17 seasons, including two appearances in the national championship. Oregon has become one of the top brands in college football. The symbiotic relationship with Nike, and the upcoming move to the Big Ten, will resonate with recruits and transfers.

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian during the first half against the Iowa State Cyclones at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Longhorns

I don’t know if Steve Sarkisian is the right head coach to lead Texas, but the program has everything at its disposal. The program is located in one of the best economic states and richest recruiting areas of the country, along with a long list of wealthy donors. Young players will want to play in a vibrant city like Austin, too. There’s no reason why the Longhorns can’t be college football’s next dynasty, especially with the upcoming move to the SEC.

Texas A&M Aggies linebacker Chantz Johnson (23) and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (45) react to a play during the third quarter against New Mexico Lobos at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M Aggies

If I have Texas on this list, I might as well include Texas A&M. The Aggies have the same amount of resources to their advantage as the Longhorns. Texas A&M has recruited at a high level for several years. The Aggies arguably should be one of the top programs in the country. However, I think the administration and culture around the program have prevented Texas A&M from flourishing. We’ll see if Mike Elko can change that.

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts to a touchdown against the Utah Utes in the first quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

USC Trojans

I realize that the Lincoln Riley era isn’t off to the best start. In fact, last year was disastrous for the Trojans. I’m not ready to give up on Riley, though. He’s demonstrated that he’s the best offensive mind in the country. USC also has a lot going for it since it’s based in Los Angeles and is surrounded by a rich recruiting area. Riley has to get the defense fixed, but I think he could have the same type of success that Pete Carroll did with the Trojans.

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College football Week 10 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“I’m gonna go see Dr. Finklestein and I’m gonna tell him we have a whole new bag of issues. We can forget about mom for a while.”

– Jeremy Grey, “Wedding Crashers” (2005)

Week 9 record: 9-3 (75%)
2023 record: 76-32 (70.3%)
All-time record: 1,012-493 (67.2%)

Saturday:

Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Ohio State (8-0) at Rutgers (6-2)
SHI Stadium
Piscataway, N.J.
Line: Ohio State -18.5
Over/under: 42.5

Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has a record of 1-27 against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. The Scarlet Knights have been outscored 1,176-289 in those games, including getting shutout six times. Rutgers just isn’t on the same level as a program as the Buckeyes. I also like the way Ohio State has played in recent weeks – winning its last five games by a combined score of 122-46.

Prediction: Ohio State 35, Rutgers 14

Texas Longhorns quarterback Maalik Murphy (6) hands off to running back C.J. Baxter (4) during the second half against the Brigham Young Cougars at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

No. 23 Kansas State (6-2) at No. 7 Texas (7-1)
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, Texas
Line: Texas -4.5
Over/under: 49.5

I’m not expecting Quinn Ewers to play, which is bad news for Texas. The Longhorns haven’t looked the same without him these last two weeks. That’s why I’m picking Kansas State to win this game. The Wildcats have looked like a completely different team recently – winning their last three games by a combined score of 120-24. I also think Kansas State’s defense can contain Texas’ run game.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Texas 23

Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin watches from the sidelines after an interception during the first half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M (5-3) at No. 10 Ole Miss (7-1)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, Miss.
Line: Ole Miss -3
Over/under: 52.5

Texas A&M might be the more physical team in this matchup, which could be problematic for Ole Miss. However, I’m not sure the Aggies have the offense to win this game. They’ve averaged just 21 points per game and 4.6 yards per play in their last three games. I doubt that’ll be good enough to go on the road and knock off Ole Miss, which is averaging 47.2 points per game and 7.0 yards per play at home.

Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Texas A&M 24

Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman calls a timeout in the second quarter against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

No. 15 Notre Dame (7-2) at Clemson (4-4)
Memorial Stadium
Clemson, S.C.
Line: Notre Dame -3.5
Over/under: 44.5

Even with this being a home game for Clemson, I can’t trust it to pull off the upset. The Tigers have struggled offensively against Power 5 competition – averaging 19.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. That isn’t going to bode well against Notre Dame’s defense, which is allowing just 15.3 points per game. I think the Fighting Irish are the much better team right now and should get the win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Clemson 17

Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) is congratulated by wide receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint (1) for his touchdown in the second half against the Florida Gators at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

No. 12 Missouri (7-1) at No. 2 Georgia (8-0)
Sanford Stadium
Athens, Ga.
Line: Georgia -15.5
Over/under: 55.5

I’ve been burned by Missouri a couple times this season, but I’m not convinced it’s capable of pulling off the upset this week. The Tigers don’t have as much talent as Georgia. I think that the Bulldogs have hit their stride in recent weeks – winning their last three games by a combined score of 131-53. Georgia also has the much better head coach in Kirby Smart, along with home-field advantage.

Prediction: Georgia 38, Missouri 20

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin talks with quarterback Drew Allar (15) on the sideline during the first quarter against the Indiana Hoosiers at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Penn State (7-1) at Maryland (5-3)
SECU Stadium
College Park, Md.
Line: Penn State -8.5
Over/under: 49.5

Similar to Rutgers, since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Maryland has a record of 3-23 against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. I have to pick Penn State to win this game. The Nittany Lions have one of the best defenses in the country – allowing 14.1 points per game against Power 5 competition. I also don’t think the Terrapins are physical enough to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Penn State 31, Maryland 21

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

No. 9 Oklahoma (7-1) at No. 22 Oklahoma State (6-2)
Boone Pickens Stadium
Stillwater, Okla.
Line: Oklahoma -5.5
Over/under: 61.5

This is the last time Bedlam will be played for the foreseeable future, so I expect Oklahoma State to be ready to play. I’m tempted to pick the Cowboys, but I’m going with Oklahoma. The Sooners have dominated this rivalry – winning 17 of the last 20 meetings. I also think Oklahoma’s defense, which allows just 3.7 yards per rush, can slow down Ollie Gordon and Oklahoma State’s run game.

Prediction: Oklahoma 30, Oklahoma State 27

Iowa State Cyclones wide receiver Jaylin Noel (13) runs the ball upfield after making a catch against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

No. 21 Kansas (6-2) at Iowa State (5-3)
Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, Iowa
Line: Iowa State -2.5
Over/under: 52.5

I’ll take the upset in this matchup. Iowa State has played very well since Rocco Becht became the team’s starting quarterback. The Cyclones have averaged 28.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play in their last five games. I also think Iowa State is catching Kansas at the right time. The Jayhawks are coming off their biggest win as a program in over a decade, so I think they come out flat this week.

Prediction: Iowa State 31, Kansas 24

Washington Huskies running back Dillon Johnson (7) runs the ball from scrimmage against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Washington (8-0) at No. 20 USC (7-2)
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles
Line: Washington -3
Over/under: 76.5

I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out USC in this game. I still think the Trojans are a good team, and they’ve heard how bad they are for the last few weeks. I expect Lincoln Riley to have them ready to play. However, I don’t trust USC’s defense to get stops against Washington’s offense, which averages 40.3 points per game and 7.9 yards per play. I’ll go with the Huskies to win in a shootout.

Prediction: Washington 41, USC 38

Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith on the sidelines during the second half at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports

No. 16 Oregon State (6-2) at Colorado (4-4)
Folsom Field
Boulder, Colo.
Line: Oregon State -13.5
Over/under: 62.5

I don’t trust Colorado to win this game. The Buffaloes have lost four of its last five games, and have allowed 37.6 points per game, 6.4 yards per play, and 146.8 rushing yards per game during that stretch. I think Oregon State’s offense, which averages 36.3 points per game and 6.7 yards per play, to move the ball at will this week. This is a very favorable matchup for the Beavers.

Prediction: Oregon State 38, Colorado 27

UCLA Bruins running back Carson Steele (33) celebrates with offensive lineman Jake Wiley (71) after scoring on a 3-yard touchdown pass against the Colorado Buffaloes in the first half at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

No. 19 UCLA (6-2) at Arizona (5-3)
Arizona Stadium
Tucson, Ariz.
Line: UCLA -2.5
Over/under: 50.5

I feel an upset brewing in this game. Arizona has played well in its last four games. The Wildcats have hung tough against Washington, USC, and Oregon State, along with averaging 34 points per game and 5.9 yards per play during that stretch. UCLA’s offense has been inconsistent against Power 5 competition. I think the Bruins will have a difficult time outscoring Arizona on the road.

Prediction: Arizona 28, UCLA 24

Game of the week:

Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Jihaad Campbell (30) picks up a fumble and ran it back for a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

No. 14 LSU (6-2) at No. 8 Alabama (7-1)
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Line: Alabama -3
Over/under: 61.5

With this game in Tuscaloosa, I have to give the advantage to Nick Saban and Alabama. The Crimson Tide have a record of 102-6 at home since 2008. LSU won this game in overtime last season and that should be in the back of Alabama’s mind, too. The Crimson Tide’s offense will have scoring opportunities against the Tigers’ defense, which is allowing 33.6 points per game and 6.6 yards per play.

Prediction: Alabama 34, LSU 31

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College football Week 9 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“You want a prediction about the weather, you’re asking the wrong Phil. I’ll give you a winter prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.”

– Phil Connors, “Groundhog Day” (1993)

Week 8 record: 8-4 (66.7%)
2023 record: 67-29 (69.7%)
All-time record: 1,003-490 (67.1%)

Saturday:

Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Fabien Lovett (0) celebrates a defensive stop against the Duke Blue Devils in the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Florida State (7-0) at Wake Forest (4-3)
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Winston-Salem, N.C.
Line: Florida State -20.5
Over/under: 50.5

Dave Clawson doesn’t get enough credit as a head coach, but this is will be a tough matchup for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have struggled offensively against FBS competition – averaging 20.8 points per game and 4.8 yards per play. I have to pick Florida State to win. The Seminoles have too much talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They shouldn’t have too many problems this week.

Prediction: Florida State 35, Wake Forest 14

Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) celebrates with Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Robert Spears-Jennings (3) during the first half against the UCF Knights at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

No. 6 Oklahoma (7-0) at Kansas (5-2)
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Lawrence, Kan.
Line: Oklahoma -10
Over/under: 65.5

Kansas is coming off a bye week and Jalon Daniels is expected to start this week, which makes me want to take the upset. However, I think Oklahoma is going to be more buttoned up after surviving a scare against UCF last week. I also don’t trust the Jayhawks’ defense, which is allowing 27.4 points per game and 161.1 rushing yards per game. Scoring opportunities should be there for the Sooners.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Kansas 31

Georgia Bulldogs running back Daijun Edwards (30) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Georgia (7-0) vs. Florida (5-2)
EverBank Stadium
Jacksonville, Fla.
Line: Georgia -14.5
Over/under: 47.5

I wouldn’t rule out Florida this week. The Gators have played better in recent weeks – winning five of their last six games, including three conference games. They’ve also averaged 30.5 points per game against SEC teams. Georgia will be shorthanded offensively without Brock Bowers, too, who’s the driving force of its offense. I’ll still pick the Bulldogs to win, but I think Florida keeps it close.

Prediction: Georgia 27, Florida 20

Texas Longhorns running back C.J. Baxter (4) runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

BYU (5-2) at No. 7 Texas (6-1)
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, Texas
Line: Texas -17.5
Over/under: 50.5

BYU hasn’t played well on the road. The Cougars have been outscored 113-76, and averaged 4.3 yards per play, in three games away from home. I doubt that’s going to be good enough to knock off Texas. The Longhorns are the more talented team, and I think BYU’s defense will have a difficult time defending their offense. Texas should win this game even without Quinn Ewers under center.

Prediction: Texas 27, BYU 13

Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Chris Bell (0) and quarterback Jack Plummer (13) react after combining for a seven yard touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

No. 20 Duke (5-2) at No. 18 Louisville (6-1)
Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, Ky.
Line: Louisville -4.5
Over/under: 46.5

Riley Leonard’s status is uncertain for this game. I’m not sure how effective he’ll be even if he plays, which is going to hurt Duke’s chances of winning. I feel like I need to pick Louisville. The Cardinals have a very explosive offense, especially at home – averaging 48.3 points per game and 7.0 yards per play in three games. I think the Blue Devils are going to have a difficult time keeping up on the scoreboard.

Prediction: Louisville 27, Duke 17

Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton III (7) passing against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

No. 21 Tennessee (5-2) at Kentucky (5-2)
Kroger Field
Lexington, Ky.
Line: Tennessee -3.5
Over/under: 51.5

Kentucky’s defense has been vulnerable against the run in its last two games – allowing 145.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. Tennessee’s offense likes to lean on its run game, which averages 217.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. I also think the Wildcats will have a difficult time winning the line of scrimmage against the Volunteers’ defensive front. This is a favorable matchup for Tennessee.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 23

Ohio State Buckeyes running back Miyan Williams (3) celebrates with offensive lineman Donovan Jackson (74) after a touchdown run against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the second quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Ohio State (7-0) at Wisconsin (5-2)
Camp Randall Stadium
Madison, Wis.
Line: Ohio State -14.5
Over/under: 45.5

Wisconsin is another team that I wouldn’t count out this week. Ohio State is coming off a big win over Penn State and could come out flat. You also have the Luke Fickell, who has a deep background with the Buckeyes, aspect of this matchup. I expect the Badgers to lean on Braelon Allen and their run game, but I doubt it’ll be enough to pull off the upset. I think Ohio State wins in a close game.

Prediction: Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 17

UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Gabriel Murphy (11) celebrates with defensive lineman Jay Toia (93) after recording a sack against the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado (4-3) at No. 23 UCLA (5-2)
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.
Line: UCLA -17.5
Over/under: 62.5

This feels like a bad matchup for Colorado. UCLA has the best defense in the Pac-12 – allowing just 14.9 points per game 282.6 yards per game. The Buffaloes will likely have to play an excellent game offensively in order to win. The Bruins also have a very effective run game. That’ll be problematic for Colorado’s defense, which allows 157.4 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.

Prediction: UCLA 41, Colorado 24

North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Armani Chatman (9) celebrates with defensive back Antavious Lane (1) after intercepting a Virginia Cavaliers pass in the end zone in the first half at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports

No. 17 North Carolina (6-1) at Georgia Tech (3-4)
Bobby Dodd Stadium
Atlanta
Line: North Carolina -11.5
Over/under: 63.5

I expect North Carolina to bounce back after losing to a bad Virginia team last week. This is a favorable matchup for the Tar Heels, too. Georgia Tech’s defense is terrible. The Yellow Jackets allow 30.3 points per game, and struggle to defend the pass. They rank near the bottom of college football in sacks and yards allowed per attempt. Drake Maye should be comfortable and make plays through the air.

Prediction: North Carolina 37, Georgia Tech 27

Oregon State Beavers tight end Jack Velling (88) runs into the end zone for a touchdown during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Oregon State (6-1) at Arizona (4-3)
Arizona Stadium
Tucson, Ariz.
Line: Oregon State -3.5
Over/under: 56.5

I actually came close to picking Arizona to pull off the upset. The Wildcats have been playing well recently. I’m just not convinced it’s going to be enough to beat Oregon State. The Beavers have one of the best offenses in the country – averaging 43 points per game and 6.7 yards per play on the road. Arizona’s defense will have a difficult time keeping Oregon State out of the end zone.

Prediction: Oregon State 34, Arizona 27

Fresno State Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene (1) runs with the ball against the Wyoming Cowboys during the first quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

UNLV (6-1) at Fresno State (6-1)
Bulldog Stadium
Fresno, Calif.
Line: Fresno State -7.5
Over/under: 57.5

I’m not sure if UNLV is good enough to win this game. The Rebels haven’t defeated a team higher than No. 91 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. This will be their toughest game since Michigan in Week 2. I have to go with Fresno State. The Bulldogs are in a much better spot as a program. Fresno State’s offense has also played well at home – averaging 38 points per game and 7.2 yards per play.

Prediction: Fresno State 35, UNLV 24

Game of the week:

Oregon Ducks running back Bucky Irving (0) celebrates scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Washington State Cougars at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 Oregon (6-1) at No. 13 Utah (6-1)
Rice-Eccles Stadium
Salt Lake City
Line: Oregon -6.5
Over/under: 47.5

I’m not convinced that Oregon’s defense is as good against the run as the numbers indicate. That’ll be to Utah’s benefit, which will lean heavily on its run game going forward now that Cam Rising is out for the rest of the season. I highly doubt the Utes are capable of outscoring the Ducks’ offense, though, which is averaging 47 points per game, 7.5 yards per play, and 226.9 rushing yards per game.

Prediction: Oregon 31, Utah 21

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Don’t rule out Oregon State, Washington State joining the Big 12 and changing the college football landscape forever

Movie quote of the day:

“I hate her. In fact, the day you broke up with her I marked that down on my calendar as a day of rejoicement. I’m going to celebrate it with a cake with her face on it, but instead of eating it, we smash it.”

– Stainer, “She’s Out of My League” (2010)

Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

I was ready to believe that the conference realignment buzz was slowing down. I was under the impression that all that was left to determine was which school The American would add to replace SMU and the fate of Oregon State and Washington State.

However, the conference realignment buzz has cranked back up again, specifically in regards to Oregon State and Washington State. 

The next hearing in the Oregon State/Washington State lawsuit against the Pac-12 is officially set for Nov 14. The hearing will be about who gets control of the Pac-12 while the parties prepare for trial. It could be pivotal for the fate of OSU/WSU.https://t.co/gxnZ4DDITN

— Amanda Christovich (@achristovichh) September 29, 2023

A few weeks ago, those two schools filed a legal complaint against the Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, seeking a temporary restraining order to protect the future of the conference. The basis for this decision comes because Oregon State and Washington State believe that the 10 members that are leaving won’t have the conference’s best interest at heart, even going so far as to believe that those members will vote to dissolve the Pac-12. Basically, Oregon State and Washington State want full control of the conference’s future. A hearing on the matter is slated for Nov. 14. 

This puts those two schools in a precarious situation. As it stands, the Pac-12 champion is going to have a guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff next year. The new format is going to have six guaranteed spots for conference champions (each of the Power 5 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion) and six wild cards. It’s important to know that the 6+6 format isn’t set after next season, and the the CFP management committee has yet to determine if the format will stay the same or change after the Pac-12 lost 10 of its members back in the summer. In fact, the committee punted on making a decision the issue recently. 

Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jaden Robinson (4) breaks up a pass intended for Washington State Cougars wide receiver Josh Kelly (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State and Washington State have a clear path to the CFP unless the format changes, even though they’re the only remaining members in the Pac-12. That will eventually change because the NCAA has a requirement that an FBS conference needs at least eight members, but there’s a two-year grace period. That means ESPN might have to pay about $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State, and potentially to schools like Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, etc. 

Things could obviously change, though. The committee could eventually determine that the Pac-12 will lose its guaranteed spot in the CFP. The problem with that is that there’s no precedent for it. Remember, the old Big East/The American lost its guaranteed spot only because the BCS was scrapped and the CFP was formed, and the powers that be determined there wouldn’t be guaranteed spots in the new postseason format.

There’s also no technical explanation of the differences between the Power 5 and Group of 5 entities, which is a big problem for the committee. It’s likely not going to be able to explain it without referencing the colloquial expression “I know it when I see it” from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964.

The main difference between the different levels of competition in the NCAA (FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III) is mostly the number of scholarships. However, Power 5 and Group of 5 schools have the same number of football scholarships (85). That’s why those schools are considered to be on the same level and are told that they’re competing for the same national championship, even though we all know that’s not true. 

The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is displayed during Big Ten media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This is a significant development. I don’t expect ESPN to willingly pay $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State if the CFP format doesn’t change, and especially if the Pac-12 ever merges with the Mountain West and/or The American.

Oregon State and Washington State are in a pretty strong position, which is why I expect them to use it as leverage for ESPN to pull strings to get them in a Power 5 conference. The most like destination is the Big 12. Oregon State and Washington State are much better fits in that conference than the ACC, Big Ten, or the SEC. The two schools would also be quality additions to the Big 12. Oregon State has a solid football program right now and its baseball team has made it to Omaha, Neb., for the College World Series six times since 2005. Washington State has had a respectable football program for the last 30 years, and has its cool College Gameday tradition.

I think it’s more likely than not that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Big 12. It’ll be much cheaper for ESPN to broadcast their games in the conference at a reduced share (roughly $20 million per school) than it would be to give them a share of the CFP revenue. It would also benefit Oregon State and Washington State in the long-term future to join the Big 12, instead of potentially joining the American or Mountain West.

Another hurdle of a CFP format change: Washington St. & Oregon St. are exploring ways to operate as a 2-school league for 1-2 yrs via NCAA grace period.

CFP must answer:
1 Would their "champion" be eligible for an AQ?
2 Do they each get CFP P5 revenue?https://t.co/vbBNfqXbRy

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 27, 2023

I also wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN waited for the committee to come to a decision on the format for the expanded CFP. If the Pac-12 loses its guaranteed spot, it’ll cost ESPN even less money to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State games in either the Mountain West or The American. That could be problematic, though, because the committee won’t meet again for a while and the clock is ticking. Plus, in order to change the CFP format, there has to be a unanimous decision by the committee, and The American commissioner Mike Aresco has said he won’t vote to change the format. So, that might not be the best course of action.

There could be a lot more riding on this development than just which conference Oregon State and Washington State join. The committee has a huge decision to make these next few weeks when it comes to the CFP format. I don’t think anyone wants to see more substantial changes to the highest level of college football, but I can’t help but see the writing on the wall. It feels like this will be the first step in the Power 5 conferences separating from the Group of 5 conferences or vice versa, which will completely change the college football landscape forever.

There’s been so much tension between the two entities since the CFP was established. The Group of 5 schools only receive 20% of the revenue, and there have even been rumblings of them starting their own playoff format. Unless the committee decides to give more than one Group of 5 conference champion a guaranteed spot in the CFP, which I highly doubt will happen, I think there’s only going to be more division. Regardless of how the committee handles the Pac-12’s situation.

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College football Week 5 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“Ain’t gonna be no rematch.”

– Apollo Creed, “Rocky” (1976)

Week 4 record: 12-0 (100%)
2023 record: 36-12 (75%)
All-time record: 972-473 (67.2%)

Friday:

Louisville Cardinals running back Maurice Turner (4) runs the ball against the Boston College Eagles during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville (4-0) at NC State (3-1)
Carter-Finley Stadium
Raleigh, N.C.
Line: Louisville -3.5
Over/under: 55.5

I haven’t been impressed with NC State. The Wolfpack struggled UConn and Virginia. The only team with a pulse that they’ve played has been Notre Dame, and they lost by three touchdowns. I’m picking Louisville to win this game. The Cardinals have played well offensively – averaging 38.6 points per game. I think NC State will have a difficult time outscoring Louisville.

Prediction: Louisville 34, NC State 27

Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith talks with an official during a game against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 Utah (4-0) at No. 19 Oregon State (3-1)
Reser Stadium
Corvallis, Ore.
Line: Oregon State -3.5
Over/under: 44.5

I’m not convinced quarterback Cam Rising will return this week for Utah. That’ll be problematic because the Utes’ offense has struggled the last few weeks. I doubt Utah can outscore Oregon State’s offense, which averages 39.5 points per game and 6.9 yards per play, without Rising. The Beavers have played very well at home since 2021 – winning 13 of 14 games by an average margin of victory of 18.8 points.

Prediction: Oregon State 27, Utah 20

Saturday:

USC Trojans wide receiver Brenden Rice (2) celebrates his touchdown catch with USC Trojans wide receiver Tahj Washington (16) during the first half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium, Home of the ASU Sun Devils. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 USC (4-0) at Colorado (3-1)
Folsom Field
Boulder, Colo.
Line: USC -21.5
Over/under: 71.5

I expect Colorado to bounce back after last week’s disappointing performance. I’m not convinced it’ll be enough to win, though. USC’s offense averages 55 points per game and 9.0 yards per play. While the Buffaloes have the ability to win shootouts, outscoring the Trojans is going to be a difficult task. I think Colorado keeps the game within the spread, but USC should win comfortably.

Prediction: USC 48, Colorado 28

Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Maxwell Hairston (31) celebrates after returning an interception for a touchdown against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

No. 22 Florida (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0)
Kroger Field
Lexington, Ky.
Line: Kentucky -1.5
Over/under: 44.5

I’m surprised that Vegas isn’t giving Kentucky more credit. I understand that Florida knocked off Tennessee a few weeks ago, but I haven’t been that impressed with the Gators. I still think they’re closer to the team we saw against Utah back in Week 1. The Wildcats have outscored FBS competition by a combined score of 124-45. I’ll go with Kentucky to pull off the minor upset.

Prediction: Kentucky 24, Florida 20

Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Dan Jackson (17) and linebacker Xavian Sorey Jr. (18) celebrate against the UAB Blazers in the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Georgia (4-0) at Auburn (3-1)
Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn, Ala.
Line: Georgia -14.5
Over/under: 45.5

Auburn’s defense, which is allowing 17 points per game against FBS competition, is going to give the Tigers a chance to win. However, I don’t trust Auburn’s offense. The Tigers have struggled on that side of the ball – averaging 27.6 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. I expect Georgia’s offense to wear down Auburn’s defense, allowing the Bulldogs to pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 14

Texas Longhorns running back Jonathon Brooks (24) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown run against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

No. 24 Kansas (4-0) at No. 3 Texas (4-0)
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, Texas
Line: Texas -16.5
Over/under: 61.5

I understand that Texas has looked good and this game is in Austin, but I’m surprised Kansas is a 16.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have one of the better offenses in college football – averaging 37.7 points per game and 6.7 yards per play. I’m still picking the Longhorns to win, though. They’ll have a significant talent advantage and should be able to move the ball on Kansas’ defense.

Prediction: Texas 38, Kansas 24

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Sam Hartman (10) celebrates after throwing a fourth quarter touchdown pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Notre Dame (4-1) at No. 17 Duke (4-0)
Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, N.C.
Line: Notre Dame -5.5
Over/under: 52.5

Notre Dame had the opportunity to get the biggest win it’s had in recent years last week, and it slipped through its fingertips. I’m very concerned that the Fighting Irish are going to come out flat this week, which is why I’m picking Duke to get the upset. The Blue Devils have shown no sign of slowing down since they knocked off Clemson back in Week 1. I don’t see any reason to pick against Duke.

Prediction: Duke 26, Notre Dame 23

Tennessee Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson (6) runs the ball against the UTSA Roadrunners during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

South Carolina (2-2) at No. 21 Tennessee (3-1)
Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, Tenn.
Line: Tennessee -11.5
Over/under: 61.5

This feels like a game Tennessee has had circled since last year. Everything went wrong for the Volunteers in last year’s game, including Hendon Hooker getting hurt. South Carolina went on to score 63 points and winning by 25. I think Tennessee’s defensive front, which has tallied 16 sacks in four games, poses a lot of problems for the Gamecocks’ porous offensive line.

Prediction: Tennessee 41, South Carolina 27

TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Jaylon Robinson (13) and tight end Jared Wiley (19) celebrates after Wiley scores a touchdown against the SMU Mustangs during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

West Virginia (3-1) at TCU (3-1)
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, Texas
Line: TCU -13.5
Over/under: 51.5

This should be a favorable matchup for TCU. West Virginia’s offense has averaged 17.3 points per game and 4.0 yards per play against Power 5 competition. The Horned Frogs are the much better offensive team – averaging 38.2 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. I just don’t think the Mountaineers are good enough offensively to keep up with TCU on the scoreboard.

Prediction: TCU 34, West Virginia 17

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jase McClellan (2) scores a touchdown on a run up the middle against Mississippi at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

No. 12 Alabama (3-1) at Mississippi State (2-2)
Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, Miss.
Line: Alabama -15.5
Over/under: 46.5

Even with this game being in Starkville, I don’t trust Mississippi State to pull off the upset. The Bulldogs have looked vulnerable the last three weeks. They’ve also struggled defensively during that stretch – allowing 34 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. The Crimson Tide aren’t exactly trustworthy, but I think they’ll be able to move the ball against Mississippi State’s defense.

Prediction: Alabama 30, Mississippi State 13

Washington Huskies wide receiver JaLynn Polk (2) celebrates with tight end Devin Culp (83), offensive lineman Geirean Hatchett (56) and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) after catching a touchdown pass against the California Golden Bears during the second quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Washington (4-0) at Arizona (3-1)
Arizona Stadium
Tucson, Ariz.
Line: Washington -19.5
Over/under: 65.5

Arizona might be able to make this a competitive game. The Wildcats have the ability to score points. However, they haven’t been that impressive the last three weeks. I also don’t trust Arizona to be able to slow down Washington’s offense, which is averaging 49.7 points per game and 9.2 yards per play. The Huskies should get the win, but I think the Wildcats find a way to cover the spread.

Prediction: Washington 45, Arizona 27

Game of the week:

LSU Tigers safety Andre’ Sam (14) celebrates his interception against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Clause-USA TODAY Sports

No. 13 LSU (3-1) at No. 20 Ole Miss (3-1)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, Miss.
Line: LSU -2.5
Over/under: 66.5

I feel an upset brewing in this game. I don’t trust LSU’s defense, which is allowing 25 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, to get stops. Ole Miss has one of the better offenses in the country – averaging 42 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. This game is likely going to be a shootout, and with it being in Oxford, I’m going to give the slight advantage to Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.

Prediction: Ole Miss 38, LSU 35

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College football Week 4 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“Don’t let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.”

– Neil McCauley, “Heat” (1995)

Week 3 record: 8-4 (66.7%)
2023 record: 24-12 (66.7%)
All-time record: 960-473 (66.9%)

Saturday:

Florida State Seminoles running back Lawrance Toafili (9) runs the ball after a hand-off from quarterback Jordan Travis (13) during the first half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Florida State (3-0) at Clemson (2-1)
Memorial Stadium
Clemson, S.C.
Line: Florida State -1.5
Over/under: 55.5

I just haven’t been that impressed with Clemson this season. The Tigers’ offense has averaged 5.2 yards per play and has committed six turnovers. Even with this being a home game for Clemson, I’m not convinced it’s the better team. Florida State should be more buttoned up after almost losing to Boston College last week. The Seminoles are also a much better offensive team.

Prediction: Florida State 34, Clemson 24

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher reacts after a play during the second quarter against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn (3-0) at Texas A&M (2-1)
Kyle Field
College Station, Texas
Line: Texas A&M -8.5
Over/under: 51.5

I’m not sure Auburn is dynamic enough offensively to win this game. The only time the Tigers have been challenged this season was against Cal, and they only scored 14 points and tallied 230 total yards of offense. I think Texas A&M is going to have the talent and quarterback advantage, which will likely be the deciding factor. This feels like a game the Aggies should win.

Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Auburn 17

Oregon Ducks running back Noah Whittington (6) runs the ball against the Hawaii Warriors during the third quarter at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports

No. 19 Colorado (3-0) at No. 10 Oregon (3-0)
Autzen Stadium
Eugene, Ore.
Line: Oregon -21
Over/under: 70.5

Colorado is certainly talented enough to win this game. However, I don’t think the Buffaloes are on the same level of program as Oregon. Colorado has also been vulnerable defensively so far, specifically against the run. I think the Buffaloes are going to have a difficult time defending the Ducks’ rushing attack, which averages 216.3 yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry.

Prediction: Oregon 45, Colorado 27

Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham looks on in the first half against the Weber State Wildcats at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

No. 22 UCLA (3-0) at No. 11 Utah (3-0)
Rice-Eccles Stadium
Salt Lake City
Line: Utah -5.5
Over/under: 52.5

The line on this game has shifted dramatically in favor of Utah, which tells me that Cam Rising is set to return. The Utes have averaged 38.7 points per game when he’s been under center the last two seasons. I have to pick Utah to win because of that. I’m not sure what to make of UCLA right now and Rice-Eccles is a difficult place to play. It feels like too much is going against the Bruins.

Prediction: Utah 28, UCLA 21

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban looks on during a time out against the South Florida Bulls in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

No. 15 Ole Miss (3-0) at No. 13 Alabama (2-1)
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Line: Alabama -7
Over/under: 55.5

I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. I don’t have the guts to pull the trigger, though. Alabama hasn’t been impressive, but I don’t know what to make of Ole Miss. The Rebels have had good teams under Lane Kiffin, but they’ve been outscored 135-93 in three meetings against the Crimson Tide. Plus, last week’s scare could be exactly what Alabama needed to get motivated.

Prediction: Alabama 28, Ole Miss 24

Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels (6) celebrates with running back Torry Locklin (12) after a touchdown against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

BYU (3-0) at Kansas (3-0)
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Lawrence, Kan.
Line: Kansas -9.5
Over/under: 54.5

I’m not sure Vegas is giving BYU enough credit heading into this game, but I’m still going to pick Kansas to win. The Jayhawks have one of the best rushing offenses in the country – averaging 216 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. The Cougars have a pretty good defense, but slowing down Jalon Daniels and the Kansas run game on the road will be very difficult for them.

Prediction: Kansas 31, BYU 24

Oregon State Beavers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (5) looks to throw during the second half against the San Diego State Aztecs at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

No. 14 Oregon State (3-0) at No. 21 Washington State (3-0)
Martin Stadium
Pullman, Wash.
Line: Oregon State -3
Over/under: 58.5

I think this is the most underrated matchup of the week. These teams are evenly matched and will be motivated to put on a good show to market how good they are since they’re the last remaining members of the Pac-12. If this game was in Corvallis, Ore., I’d take Oregon State. Pullman is a tough place to play and I think Washington State has the better quarterback in Cameron Ward.

Prediction: Washington State 27, Oregon State 24

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) scores a touchdown against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 24 Iowa (3-0) at No. 7 Penn State (3-0)
Beaver Stadium
University Park, Pa.
Line: Penn State -14.5
Over/under: 39.5

I can’t trust Iowa’s offense, which is averaging just 28.3 points per game and 4.7 yards per play this season, to score enough points to upset Penn State. The Hawkeyes’ defense ought to keep the Nittany Lions’ offense in check (for the most part). However, I expect Penn State’s run game to wear down Iowa’s defense as the game progresses. The Nittany Lions should win comfortably.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Iowa 10

Missouri Tigers quarterback Brady Cook (12) and wide receiver Luther Burden III (3) celebrate after a touchdown during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis (3-0) vs. Missouri (3-0)
The Dome at America’s Center
St. Louis
Line: Missouri -6.5
Over/under: 51.5

I actually think there’s a good chance that Missouri comes out flat for this game. Missouri is coming off its biggest win under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. It’s also a neutral-site game, so Missouri won’t have the benefit of a rowdy home crowd. I came close to picking the upset, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Missouri is the more talented team and I think it’ll find a way to get the win.

Prediction: Missouri 27, Memphis 21

South Carolina Gamecocks running back Dakereon Joyner (5) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs during the first half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State (2-1) at South Carolina (3-0)
Williams-Brice Stadium
Columbia, S.C.
Line: South Carolina -6.5
Over/under: 46.5

South Carolina’s offensive line has struggled so far this season. I’m not convinced Mississippi State’s defensive front is good enough to exploit that weakness, though. The Bulldogs’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack in the country in sacks and tackles for loss. The Gamecocks should be able to win the line of scrimmage, along with keep Spencer Rattler upright and comfortable.

Prediction: South Carolina 24, Mississippi State 20

Kansas State Wildcats tight end Ben Sinnott (34) scores a touchdown during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

UCF (3-0) at Kansas State (2-1)
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Manhattan, Kan.
Line: Kansas State -3.5
Over/under: 52.5

UCF is going to have a difficult time winning this game without starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who’s been ruled out due to injury. Kansas State let me down last week, but I expect it to bounce back this week. The Wildcats have been a tough team to outscore in their last 13 home games – averaging 31.9 points per game against FBS competition. I doubt the Knights can pull off the upset.

Prediction: Kansas State 31, UCF 20

Game of the week:

Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Mitchell Melton (17) celebrates a defensive play with linebacker Cody Simon (30) and defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (97) during the fourth quarter against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

No. 6 Ohio State (3-0) at No. 9 Notre Dame (4-0)
Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame, Ind.
Line: Ohio State -3
Over/under: 55.5

Unlike previous Notre Dame teams, I think this one has a good enough quarterback to win this game. The Fighting Irish have one of the best pass defenses in the country, too, but Ohio State’s passing attack will be difficult to defend. However, I actually think the Buckeyes’ rushing attack, which averages 156.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry, will be the difference in this game.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 20

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Adding Cal, Stanford, SMU isn’t going to save the ACC

Movie quote of the day:

“If in doubt, Meriadoc, always follow your nose.”

– Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” (2001)

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at the Westin Hotel in Charlotte. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

I realize how late I am to write about the recent conference realignment news from the ACC, but I’ve been swamped with other projects. I finally found the time to write my thoughts. 

Even though the news the last few weeks has been devoted to the Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12 (RIP), the ACC found itself in the news for the wrong reasons. Florida State has been vocal about how unhappy it is in the ACC, specifically with the conference’s current revenue distribution and media rights agreement. The Seminoles have even threatened to pay the $120 million exit fee to leave the conference — going so far as to work with a private equity firm to help with costs.

Everyone was so caught up with the exit fee that they ignored the biggest issue facing Florida State, which was the ACC’s grant of rights that doesn’t expire until 2036. The Seminoles were free to pay the exit fee and leave the conference, but it’d be pointless to do so if they couldn’t get out of the grant of rights. If Florida State had left the ACC without getting out of the grant of rights, it’d mean that any media revenue that the school generated would still go to the ACC for the next 13 years. That’s why I never believed the Seminoles were going to leave the conference any time soon. 

The other issue was that there likely wasn’t a conference that would take Florida State right now. I doubt the Big Ten would be interested because the school isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities. Every member of the Big Ten is an AAU member except Nebraska, which was an AAU member at the time it joined the conference. I also think the Big 12 and SEC are content at 16 members…for now. It seems like the Seminoles are stuck.

I bring all that up because I don’t think Florida State is going to stop trying to get out of the ACC. The conference makes substantially less money in media revenue than the Big Ten and SEC. The Seminoles view themselves on the same competitive level as some of the institutions in those conferences. Florida State isn’t going to tolerate the ACC for much longer. If the Seminoles are looking elsewhere, it’s safe to assume that Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and even Notre Dame are doing the same. 

In an effort to either put off the day that those schools leave the conference (or avoid it altogether), the ACC made the decision to expand west by adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. 

It’s final: ACC presidents have approved expansion to add Stanford, Cal and SMU, sources tell @YahooSports, ending a month-long saga into an issue that divided the league.

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 1, 2023

On the surface, I can see why the conference made this decision. Cal and Stanford are excellent academic institutions and are great fits in the ACC because of that. SMU also isn’t an academic slouch and gives the conference a footprint in Texas. Adding those three schools will also lead to $72 million in extra revenue from the TV networks. Cal and Stanford are going to take a significantly reduced share of revenue distribution, and SMU will forgo any revenue for almost a decade. That means more money in the pockets of the other ACC members, so it was a win for all parties. 

The problem with adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU is that they don’t bring much to the table. When was the last time Cal was relevant in a revenue-generating sport? Probably since Aaron Rodgers or Marshawn Lynch played football there. Stanford has pretty much been irrelevant historically in revenue-generating sports, with the exception of the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw years in football. SMU has plenty of boosters with deep pockets, but that’s about all it brings to the table. The Mustangs haven’t even been able to win The American since joining the conference in 2013. 

The other commonality with all three institutions is that, while located in large markets, none of them control their market. TCU has more of a footprint in Dallas than SMU, and even the Horned Frogs are likely behind Texas. For years, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 tried to establish a footprint in the San Francisco Bay Area, but to no avail. 

I just don’t see how these additions are going to lead to anything good for the ACC. I don’t think Cal, Stanford, or SMU will compete in the conference. They’re also not geographic fits and travel costs will be through the roof. For the time being, it probably won’t mean much with those institutions accepting reduced shares of media revenue for the next few years. That’ll send a larger chunk of the metaphorical pie to Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina’s pockets, which should appease everyone in the short term. 

However, when the western schools start receiving larger shares, that’s not going to make Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina very happy. Remember, those were the four ACC members that were vehemently opposed to adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. It wasn’t until a last-minute switch from NC State that the three western schools even had the votes to be accepted into the conference. 

This circus will be fun to watch. #FSU #Clemson #UNC #ACC #PAC12 #Cal #Stanford #SMU #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/LgVQhVXTmI

— Petey Parks (@Football_Dude84) September 1, 2023

Adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU feels like the beginning of the end for the ACC. Once Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina leave for either the Big Ten or SEC, I can’t imagine the ACC survives. The conference doesn’t have much to offer outside of those four schools. The majority of the members that would be left behind are small, private institutions that aren’t big brands or that competitive in athletics. They’re just along for the ride to collect a $30 million check from media partners.

What I’m seeing develop in the ACC is awfully close to what we just saw happen in the Pac-12. For years, the ACC has placed too much of an emphasis on academics. That’s part of the reason why the conference has ranked dead last among Power 5 (4?) conferences in TV viewership for the last few years. The ACC also hasn’t wanted to be associated with conferences/institutions that don’t share the same academic values. That’s why it partnered with the Big Ten and Pac-12 in The Alliance and why the ACC explored a merger with the Pac-12 about a year ago.

Without big brands like Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina, I have a difficult time seeing any TV network paying top dollar to broadcast Boston College, Stanford, SMU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, etc. Keep in mind that the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will likely get the opportunity to re-negotiate new media rights agreements before the ACC can re-negotiate the one that it agreed to in 2016. The conference is going to have to think outside the box to find other revenue streams, which it has started to do, but I’m not convinced it’s going to be enough.

I don’t expect any schools to leave the ACC for at least a few years, and a lot can change in that time, but things don’t look good for the conference right now.

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College football Week 2 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“I don’t know whether to help you or euthanize you.”

– Jacob Palmer, “Crazy, Stupid, Love” (2011)

Week 1 record: 7-5 (58.3%)
All-time record: 943-466 (66.9%)

Friday:

Kansas Jayhawks linebacker Rich Miller (30) and defensive lineman Austin Booker (9) celebrate after a play during the first half against the Missouri State Bearsa at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Illinois (1-0) at Kansas (1-0)
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Lawrence, Kan.
Line: Kansas -3
Over/under: 57.5

It sounds like quarterback Jalon Daniels is expected to play. If so, I’ll give the advantage to Kansas. Daniels is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in college football. The Jayhawks have averaged 37.1 points per game offensively in the last 12 games he’s started. I think Illinois, which has scored 30 points or more just five times under Bret Bielema, is going to have a difficult time outscoring the Jayhawks.

Prediction: Kansas 34, Illinois 24

Saturday:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Sam Hartman (10) celebrates with tight end Holden Staes (13) after a touchdown in the second quarter against the Tennessee State Tigers at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 Notre Dame (2-0) at NC State (1-0)
Carter-Finley Stadium
Raleigh, N.C.
Line: Notre Dame -7.5
Over/under: 50.5

I have no idea what to expect from NC State. The Wolfpack’s performance last week left a lot to be desired. NC State averaged just 5.1 yards per play offensively in a struggle win over UConn. I’ve been pretty impressed with Notre Dame through two weeks – outscoring opponents 98-6. I expect quarterback Sam Hartman to make a few too many plays and lead the Fighting Irish to victory.

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, NC State 20

Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham works the sideline during their game against the Florida Gators at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

No. 12 Utah (1-0) at Baylor (0-1)
McLane Stadium
Waco, Texas
Line: Utah -7.5
Over/under: 47.5

I expect Baylor to be more buttoned up this week, but this is going to be a difficult game for it to win. The Bears’ offensive line struggled last week against Texas State. Utah’s strength is in the trenches, which doesn’t bode well for Baylor. The Utes have had more time to prepare for this game, too. The Bears are also going to be without their starting quarterback. Utah should win this game.

Prediction: Utah 27, Baylor 17

Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) throws a pass in the second quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska (0-1) at No. 22 Colorado (1-0)
Folsom Field
Boulder, Colo.
Line: Colorado -2.5
Over/under: 58.5

I wouldn’t be so quick to count out Nebraska in this game. I realize that the Cornhuskers didn’t impress anyone last week, but Matt Rhule is a quality head coach and they have extra time to prepare. I also think there’s a chance that Colorado comes out flat coming off an emotional win. However, I think the Buffaloes have too much firepower offensively. I’m not sure Nebraska can keep up.

Prediction: Colorado 34, Nebraska 28

Mississippi Rebels running back Quinshon Judkins (4) reacts with Mississippi Rebels defensive linemen JJ Pegues (89) after a touchdown during the second half against the Mercer Bears at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

No. 20 Ole Miss (1-0) at No. 24 Tulane (1-0)
Yulman Stadium
New Orleans
Line: Ole Miss -7.5
Over/under: 66

This is one of the more underrated matchups this week. I think Tulane poses a lot of problems for Ole Miss. The Green Wave are going to lean on their run game and try to keep the ball away from Lane Kiffin and the Rebels’ offense. Ole Miss hasn’t exactly been a defensive juggernaut under Kiffin. However, I think the Rebels are too explosive offensively. I doubt Tulane will be able to slow them down.

Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Tulane 31

Texas A&M Aggies linebacker Chantz Johnson (23) and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (45) react to a play during the third quarter against New Mexico Lobos at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

No. 23 Texas A&M (1-0) at Miami (1-0)
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
Line: Texas A&M -4.5
Over/under: 51.5

I was impressed with both of these teams last week. This game ought to be more entertaining than it was last year. I’m going to give the slight advantage to Texas A&M, though. I think the Aggies have the better head coach/quarterback combination. They should also have the more talented team. I’mstruggling to see the areas of this matchup that Miami can exploit.

Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Miami 24

Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Cade McNamara (12) throws a pass against the Utah State Aggies during the third quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa (1-0) at Iowa State (1-0)
Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, Iowa
Line: Iowa -3.5
Over/under: 36.5

I feel like too many people are riding with Iowa State to win this game because of how Iowa played last week. Kirk Ferentz has had Matt Campbell’s number in this rivalry. The Hawkeyes have won five of the previous six meetings between these teams, and outscored the Cyclones 151-81 during that stretch. I also think Iowa has the advantage at quarterback in Cade McNamara.

Prediction: Iowa 20, Iowa State 16

Pittsburgh Panthers Pittsburgh Panthers running back Rodney Hammond Jr. (6) runs after a pass reception against the Wofford Terriers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati (1-0) at Pitt (1-0)
Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh
Line: Pitt -7
Over/under: 46.5

I think this is a favorable matchup for Pitt. The Panthers have the better head coach in Pat Narduzzi. Cincinnati’s defense also showed vulnerability against the run against Eastern Kentucky last week – allowing 4.5 yards per carry. I expect Narduzzi to have noticed that and for the Panthers to lean on their run game, which accumulated over 200 rushing yards last week.

Prediction: Pitt 24, Cincinnati 20

Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James (20) celebrates during the first half after scoring a touchdown against the Portland State Vikings at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

No. 13 Oregon (1-0) at Texas Tech (0-1)
Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, Texas
Line: Oregon -6.5
Over/under: 68.5

I understand that Texas Tech suffered an embarrassing loss, but I think it can win this game. It’s not easy to play in Lubbock, especially at night. I also think Joey Maguire will have the Red Raiders better prepared this week. I’m just not convinced Texas Tech can slow down Oregon’s rushing attack after giving up 171 yards on the ground to Wyoming last week. I have to go with the Ducks.

Prediction: Oregon 41, Texas Tech 31

Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell celebrates with wide wide receiver Chimere Dike (13) following a touchdown during the second quarter against the Buffalo Bulls at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

No. 19 Wisconsin (1-0) at Washington State (1-0)
Martin Stadium
Pullman, Wash.
Line: Wisconsin -6.5
Over/under: 58.5

I’m going to be bold and pick the upset. Wisconsin quarterback Tanner Mordecai has had issues with turnovers – throwing 23 interceptions in his last 23 starts against FBS competition. Washington State has been able to force turnovers under head coach Jake Dickert – ranking in the top 40 the last two seasons. I also think Cougars quarterback Cam Ward poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin’s defense.

Prediction: Washington State 34, Wisconsin 31

Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon II (0) runs the ball against Central Arkansas in the first quarter at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan J. Fish-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma State (1-0) at Arizona State (1-0)
Mountain America Stadium
Tempe, Ariz.
Line: Oklahoma State -3.5
Over/under: 56.5

Neither of these teams were impressive last week, so I’m going to lean on coaching. Oklahoma State has the clear advantage in that area in Mike Gundy. I expect him to have the Cowboys ready to play after a lackluster performance against an FCS opponent. I also think Oklahoma State is the better defensive team. That should keep quarterback Jaden Rashada in check, which will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 28, Arizona State 24

Game of the week:

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) celebrates with offensive lineman JC Latham (65) after scoring against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

No. 11 Texas (1-0) at No. 3 Alabama (1-0)
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Line: Alabama -7
Over/under: 53.5

I can’t shake the feeling that Texas has had this game circled for a year. The Longhorns should’ve won last year’s meeting between these teams and I think they’ll want to send a message since they’re about to join the SEC. I’m not going to pick against Nick Saban, though. He has a record of 28-2 against his former assistant coaches. Alabama also has a record of 99-5 at home since 2008.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Texas 24

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College football Week 1 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“I always tell the truth. Even when I lie.”

– Tony Montana, “Scarface” (1983)

2022 record: 111-62 (64.1%)
All-time record: 936-461 (67%)

Thursday:

Utah Utes running back Micah Bernard (2) runs with the ball after a catch against the Stanford Cardinal in the second quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Florida at No. 14 Utah
Rice-Eccles Stadium
Salt Lake City
Line: Utah -4.5
Over/under: 43.5

Utah will have its hands full if quarterback Cam Rising doesn’t play in this game. Florida is talented enough to knock off the Utes. I just don’t know what to expect from the Gators, though. They’re a low-altitude team with a lot of question marks heading to high altitude, which isn’t insignificant. Rice-Eccles is one of the toughest places to play in college football. I’m not confident in it, but I’m going with Utah.

Prediction: Utah 23, Florida 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (8) throws the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska at Minnesota
Huntington Bank Stadium
Minneapolis
Line: Minnesota -7
Over/under: 42.5

This will be Matt Rhule’s first game as Nebraska’s head coach, and I feel like it’s coming at the wrong time. I doubt the Cornhuskers are going to be polished enough to go on the road and knock off Minnesota. Nebraska is breaking in new playbooks and several new players. The Golden Gophers are entering Year 7 of P.J. Fleck’s tenure and should be in a better spot as a program. 

Prediction: Minnesota 23, Nebraska 17

Friday:

Louisville Cardinals running back Jawhar Jordan (25) runs the ball against North Carolina State Wolfpack cornerback Aydan White (3) during the second half at Cardinal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
Line: Louisville -7.5
Over/under: 48.5

A part of me thinks Georgia Tech might be able to win this game. The Yellow Jackets were a competitive team last season when Brent Key took over as interim head coach. The word “interim” has now been removed from his title. I’m still going to give the advantage to Louisville, though. I think the Cardinals have the better head coach in Jeff Brohm, along with the talent advantage.

Prediction: Louisville 27, Georgia Tech 20

Saturday:

TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes on the sidelines during a game against the Iowa State Cyclones at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado at No. 17 TCU
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, Texas
Line: TCU -20.5
Over/under: 63.5

Colorado has the athletes on the perimeter to make this game intriguing. However, I have reservations about what kind of players the Buffaloes have in the trenches. That’s where this game will be decided, and I have to give the advantage in that area to TCU. Even though the Horned Frogs are breaking in a lot of new faces, I think they’re in a better spot as a program than Colorado.

Prediction: TCU 41, Colorado 24

Ohio State Buckeyes running back Miyan Williams (3) breaks away for a long touchdown run during the second quarter against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Ohio State at Indiana
Memorial Stadium
Bloomington, Ind.
Line: Ohio State -29.5
Over/under: 59.5

I’ll be surprised if Indiana makes this a competitive game. Indiana doesn’t have as much talent on its roster as Ohio State. The Hoosiers also struggled defensively last year – allowing 176.2 rushing yards per game and 33.9 points per game. The Buckeyes might be breaking in a new starting quarterback, but their run game should be excellent. I also trust Ryan Day to have a good offensive game plan.

Prediction: Ohio State 45, Indiana 17

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass to wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) against the Stanford Cardinal during the third quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State at No. 10 Washington
Husky Stadium
Seattle
Line: Washington -14.5
Over/under: 58.5

Boise State has a pretty good run game, but quarterback Taylen Green isn’t much of a thrower. I highly doubt that’s going to be good enough to go on the road knock off Washington. The Huskies are returning a lot of production, including quarterback Michael Penix Jr., from an offense that averaged 43.2 points per game at home last year. This feels like a game the Huskies should win.

Prediction: Washington 38, Boise State 24

UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) celebrates a touchdown in the first half against the North Texas Mean Green at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

UTSA at Houston
TDECU Stadium
Houston
Line: UTSA -1.5
Over/under: 59.5

This feels like a problematic matchup for Houston. The Cougars are breaking in a lot of new faces on their roster, including starting quarterback. On the other side, UTSA is one of the best Group of 5 programs in the country. The Roadrunners are also going to have a significant advantage at the quarterback position with Frank Harris. I’ll take UTSA to get the huge win on the road.

Prediction: UTSA 34, Houston 27

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) celebrates with offensive linesman Juice Scruggs (70) after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

West Virginia at No. 7 Penn State
Beaver Stadium
University Park, Pa.
Line: Penn State -20.5
Over/under: 50.5

Both of these teams are breaking in new starting quarterbacks and have question marks at the wide receiver position. This game will be decided by which team can run the ball better. Penn State has the advantage in that area. I highly doubt West Virginia’s defense, which allowed 149.6 yards per game on the ground last year, can slow down Penn State’s rushing attack.

Prediction: Penn State 35, West Virginia 14

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

No. 21 North Carolina vs. South Carolina
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, N.C.
Line: North Carolina -2.5
Over/under: 64.5

I originally had North Carolina winning this game in the preseason. However, the closer we get to this game the more I like South Carolina’s chances. Even though the Tar Heels will have the better quarterback in Drake Maye, I think the Gamecocks have the better team. I also think South Carolina has the better personnel in the trenches. I expect that to be the difference in this matchup.

Prediction: South Carolina 30, North Carolina 27

Tulane Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz during the first quarter against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

South Alabama at No. 24 Tulane
Yulman Stadium
New Orleans
Line: Tulane -6.5
Over/under: 51.5

I had a difficult time picking against Tulane in this matchup. I think South Alabama is a good team, but the Green Wave are in a much better spot as a program. I don’t see Tulane coming out flat after posting a record of 12-2 and beating USC in the Cotton Bowl a season ago. The Green Wave also have the talent advantage. This just feels like a tough game for the Jaguars to win, especially with it being on the road.

Prediction: Tulane 28, South Alabama 21

Monday:

Clemson running back Will Shipley (1) runs for a 50-yard touchdown against Syracuse during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina on Saturday, October 22, 2022. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

No. 9 Clemson at Duke
Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, N.C.
Line: Clemson -12.5
Over/under: 55.5

I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out Duke in this game. The Blue Devils should be a pretty good team because they’re returning a lot of production from a team that won nine games last year. The Tigers are also breaking in a new offensive coordinator, so I doubt they’re going to be polished for Week 1. I’m still going to pick Clemson to win, though, because it’ll have a significant talent advantage.

Prediction: Clemson 31, Duke 21

Sunday/Game of the week:

LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) scrambles against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Fla.
Line: LSU -2.5
Over/under: 55.5

Florida State got the better of LSU last year, but I’m not anticipating the same result this time around. The Tigers are returning a lot of production from a team that finished strong last season – winning six of their last eight games and appeared in the SEC championship. They have the talent and coaching advantage, too. I expect Brian Kelly to have LSU ready to play.

Prediction: LSU 31, Florida State 24

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