“I don’t like it, I don’t agree with it, but I accept it.”
— Lando Calrissian, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018)
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to players against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Purdue (34-4) vs. No. 1 UConn (36-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: UConn -6.5 Over/under: 145.5
Contrary to what we all thought would happen after the way the conference tournaments played out, this NCAA tournament has been pretty normal. The only double-digit seed to advance past the first weekend (and eventually to the Final Four) was a Power 5 school. That’s partly why we have two No. 1 seeds competing in the national championship for the first time since 2021, and just the third time since 2008. UConn and Purdue have been the most consistent teams in this tournament, combining for an average margin of victory of 22.3 points per game. This has a chance to be an entertaining title game.
North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) knocks the ball away from Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After last year’s embarrassing loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers have gotten the monkey off their back by getting to this point. The biggest difference between this Purdue team and last year’s team is a much improved backcourt. In five tournament games, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones have combined to shoot 40.5% from 3-point territory, and committed just 4.6 turnovers per game and averaged nearly 10 points per game apiece. They do a great job of complementing Zach Edey, who’s considered the best player in the country and has averaged 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the tournament. The Boilermakers have also been excellent defensively in their last five games — allowing only 60.2 points per game and holding teams to shoot just 39.3% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. If Purdue continues to shoot well from 3-point range and collect offensive rebounds, it certainly has a chance to knock off the Huskies.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/Arizona Republic-USA TODAY Sports
The defending national champions have shown no signs of slowing down the last few weeks. The Huskies have won 26 of their last 27 games by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. They’ve been impressive offensively in their last five games — shooting 50.8% from the field, and collecting 12 offensive rebounds per game and committing just eight turnovers per game. Unlike the Boilermakers, UConn’s offense has a very balanced scoring attack. The Huskies have had six different players score at least 10 points in a game in tournament play. UConn has also been just as good, if not better, on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies have allowed only 57.2 points per game, and held opposing teams to shoot just 34.6% from the field and 28.1% from beyond the arc. My only concern with UConn is its 3-point shooting, which has been lukewarm at best recently. When you factor that, it’s even more impressive how the Huskies have been able to win games in the tournament so convincingly.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The deciding factor of this game will likely be which team can win in the paint. Even though the Boilermakers have Edey (7’4″), I’m giving that advantage to UConn. The Huskies have more depth in the post with the trio of Donovan Clingan (7’2″), Alex Karaban (6’8″), and Samson Johnson (6’10”), who’ve combined to tally 26 blocks and 80 rebounds in five tournament games. They’ll be a problem for Edey, who isn’t very athletic. If Edey can’t get going, I don’t know how the Boilermakers win. I doubt their backcourt is good enough to pick up the slack given how well UConn has defended 3-pointers. The Huskies have more talent and scoring depth than Purdue, too. I like that UConn has won games in a variety of different ways despite not shooting well from beyond the arc. That’s a sign of a great team. I also think the Huskies will have a significant coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. It just feels like UConn is destined to be the first team to repeat as national champions since Florida did it in 2006-07.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
“I hate her. In fact, the day you broke up with her I marked that down on my calendar as a day of rejoicement. I’m going to celebrate it with a cake with her face on it, but instead of eating it, we smash it.”
– Stainer, “She’s Out of My League” (2010)
Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) carries the ball against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
I was ready to believe that the conference realignment buzz was slowing down. I was under the impression that all that was left to determine was which school The American would add to replace SMU and the fate of Oregon State and Washington State.
However, the conference realignment buzz has cranked back up again, specifically in regards to Oregon State and Washington State.
The next hearing in the Oregon State/Washington State lawsuit against the Pac-12 is officially set for Nov 14. The hearing will be about who gets control of the Pac-12 while the parties prepare for trial. It could be pivotal for the fate of OSU/WSU.https://t.co/gxnZ4DDITN
A few weeks ago, those two schools filed a legal complaint against the Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, seeking a temporary restraining order to protect the future of the conference. The basis for this decision comes because Oregon State and Washington State believe that the 10 members that are leaving won’t have the conference’s best interest at heart, even going so far as to believe that those members will vote to dissolve the Pac-12. Basically, Oregon State and Washington State want full control of the conference’s future. A hearing on the matter is slated for Nov. 14.
This puts those two schools in a precarious situation. As it stands, the Pac-12 champion is going to have a guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff next year. The new format is going to have six guaranteed spots for conference champions (each of the Power 5 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion) and six wild cards. It’s important to know that the 6+6 format isn’t set after next season, and the the CFP management committee has yet to determine if the format will stay the same or change after the Pac-12 lost 10 of its members back in the summer. In fact, the committee punted on making a decision the issue recently.
Oregon State Beavers defensive back Jaden Robinson (4) breaks up a pass intended for Washington State Cougars wide receiver Josh Kelly (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon State and Washington State have a clear path to the CFP unless the format changes, even though they’re the only remaining members in the Pac-12. That will eventually change because the NCAA has a requirement that an FBS conference needs at least eight members, but there’s a two-year grace period. That means ESPN might have to pay about $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State, and potentially to schools like Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, etc.
Things could obviously change, though. The committee could eventually determine that the Pac-12 will lose its guaranteed spot in the CFP. The problem with that is that there’s no precedent for it. Remember, the old Big East/The American lost its guaranteed spot only because the BCS was scrapped and the CFP was formed, and the powers that be determined there wouldn’t be guaranteed spots in the new postseason format.
There’s also no technical explanation of the differences between the Power 5 and Group of 5 entities, which is a big problem for the committee. It’s likely not going to be able to explain it without referencing the colloquial expression “I know it when I see it” from Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964.
The main difference between the different levels of competition in the NCAA (FBS, FCS, Division II, Division III) is mostly the number of scholarships. However, Power 5 and Group of 5 schools have the same number of football scholarships (85). That’s why those schools are considered to be on the same level and are told that they’re competing for the same national championship, even though we all know that’s not true.
The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is displayed during Big Ten media days at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
This is a significant development. I don’t expect ESPN to willingly pay $320 million to Oregon State and Washington State if the CFP format doesn’t change, and especially if the Pac-12 ever merges with the Mountain West and/or The American.
Oregon State and Washington State are in a pretty strong position, which is why I expect them to use it as leverage for ESPN to pull strings to get them in a Power 5 conference. The most like destination is the Big 12. Oregon State and Washington State are much better fits in that conference than the ACC, Big Ten, or the SEC. The two schools would also be quality additions to the Big 12. Oregon State has a solid football program right now and its baseball team has made it to Omaha, Neb., for the College World Series six times since 2005. Washington State has had a respectable football program for the last 30 years, and has its cool College Gameday tradition.
I think it’s more likely than not that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Big 12. It’ll be much cheaper for ESPN to broadcast their games in the conference at a reduced share (roughly $20 million per school) than it would be to give them a share of the CFP revenue. It would also benefit Oregon State and Washington State in the long-term future to join the Big 12, instead of potentially joining the American or Mountain West.
Another hurdle of a CFP format change: Washington St. & Oregon St. are exploring ways to operate as a 2-school league for 1-2 yrs via NCAA grace period.
CFP must answer: 1 Would their "champion" be eligible for an AQ? 2 Do they each get CFP P5 revenue?https://t.co/vbBNfqXbRy
I also wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN waited for the committee to come to a decision on the format for the expanded CFP. If the Pac-12 loses its guaranteed spot, it’ll cost ESPN even less money to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State games in either the Mountain West or The American. That could be problematic, though, because the committee won’t meet again for a while and the clock is ticking. Plus, in order to change the CFP format, there has to be a unanimous decision by the committee, and The American commissioner Mike Aresco has said he won’t vote to change the format. So, that might not be the best course of action.
There could be a lot more riding on this development than just which conference Oregon State and Washington State join. The committee has a huge decision to make these next few weeks when it comes to the CFP format. I don’t think anyone wants to see more substantial changes to the highest level of college football, but I can’t help but see the writing on the wall. It feels like this will be the first step in the Power 5 conferences separating from the Group of 5 conferences or vice versa, which will completely change the college football landscape forever.
There’s been so much tension between the two entities since the CFP was established. The Group of 5 schools only receive 20% of the revenue, and there have even been rumblings of them starting their own playoff format. Unless the committee decides to give more than one Group of 5 conference champion a guaranteed spot in the CFP, which I highly doubt will happen, I think there’s only going to be more division. Regardless of how the committee handles the Pac-12’s situation.
– Gandalf, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” (2001)
ACC commissioner Jim Phillips speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at the Westin Hotel in Charlotte. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
I realize how late I am to write about the recent conference realignment news from the ACC, but I’ve been swamped with other projects. I finally found the time to write my thoughts.
Even though the news the last few weeks has been devoted to the Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12 (RIP), the ACC found itself in the news for the wrong reasons. Florida State has been vocal about how unhappy it is in the ACC, specifically with the conference’s current revenue distribution and media rights agreement. The Seminoles have even threatened to pay the $120 million exit fee to leave the conference — going so far as to work with a private equity firm to help with costs.
Everyone was so caught up with the exit fee that they ignored the biggest issue facing Florida State, which was the ACC’s grant of rights that doesn’t expire until 2036. The Seminoles were free to pay the exit fee and leave the conference, but it’d be pointless to do so if they couldn’t get out of the grant of rights. If Florida State had left the ACC without getting out of the grant of rights, it’d mean that any media revenue that the school generated would still go to the ACC for the next 13 years. That’s why I never believed the Seminoles were going to leave the conference any time soon.
The other issue was that there likely wasn’t a conference that would take Florida State right now. I doubt the Big Ten would be interested because the school isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities. Every member of the Big Ten is an AAU member except Nebraska, which was an AAU member at the time it joined the conference. I also think the Big 12 and SEC are content at 16 members…for now. It seems like the Seminoles are stuck.
I bring all that up because I don’t think Florida State is going to stop trying to get out of the ACC. The conference makes substantially less money in media revenue than the Big Ten and SEC. The Seminoles view themselves on the same competitive level as some of the institutions in those conferences. Florida State isn’t going to tolerate the ACC for much longer. If the Seminoles are looking elsewhere, it’s safe to assume that Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and even Notre Dame are doing the same.
In an effort to either put off the day that those schools leave the conference (or avoid it altogether), the ACC made the decision to expand west by adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU.
It’s final: ACC presidents have approved expansion to add Stanford, Cal and SMU, sources tell @YahooSports, ending a month-long saga into an issue that divided the league.
On the surface, I can see why the conference made this decision. Cal and Stanford are excellent academic institutions and are great fits in the ACC because of that. SMU also isn’t an academic slouch and gives the conference a footprint in Texas. Adding those three schools will also lead to $72 million in extra revenue from the TV networks. Cal and Stanford are going to take a significantly reduced share of revenue distribution, and SMU will forgo any revenue for almost a decade. That means more money in the pockets of the other ACC members, so it was a win for all parties.
The problem with adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU is that they don’t bring much to the table. When was the last time Cal was relevant in a revenue-generating sport? Probably since Aaron Rodgers or Marshawn Lynch played football there. Stanford has pretty much been irrelevant historically in revenue-generating sports, with the exception of the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw years in football. SMU has plenty of boosters with deep pockets, but that’s about all it brings to the table. The Mustangs haven’t even been able to win The American since joining the conference in 2013.
The other commonality with all three institutions is that, while located in large markets, none of them control their market. TCU has more of a footprint in Dallas than SMU, and even the Horned Frogs are likely behind Texas. For years, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 tried to establish a footprint in the San Francisco Bay Area, but to no avail.
I just don’t see how these additions are going to lead to anything good for the ACC. I don’t think Cal, Stanford, or SMU will compete in the conference. They’re also not geographic fits and travel costs will be through the roof. For the time being, it probably won’t mean much with those institutions accepting reduced shares of media revenue for the next few years. That’ll send a larger chunk of the metaphorical pie to Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina’s pockets, which should appease everyone in the short term.
However, when the western schools start receiving larger shares, that’s not going to make Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina very happy. Remember, those were the four ACC members that were vehemently opposed to adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU. It wasn’t until a last-minute switch from NC State that the three western schools even had the votes to be accepted into the conference.
Adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU feels like the beginning of the end for the ACC. Once Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina leave for either the Big Ten or SEC, I can’t imagine the ACC survives. The conference doesn’t have much to offer outside of those four schools. The majority of the members that would be left behind are small, private institutions that aren’t big brands or that competitive in athletics. They’re just along for the ride to collect a $30 million check from media partners.
What I’m seeing develop in the ACC is awfully close to what we just saw happen in the Pac-12. For years, the ACC has placed too much of an emphasis on academics. That’s part of the reason why the conference has ranked dead last among Power 5 (4?) conferences in TV viewership for the last few years. The ACC also hasn’t wanted to be associated with conferences/institutions that don’t share the same academic values. That’s why it partnered with the Big Ten and Pac-12 in The Alliance and why the ACC explored a merger with the Pac-12 about a year ago.
Without big brands like Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina, I have a difficult time seeing any TV network paying top dollar to broadcast Boston College, Stanford, SMU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, etc. Keep in mind that the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will likely get the opportunity to re-negotiate new media rights agreements before the ACC can re-negotiate the one that it agreed to in 2016. The conference is going to have to think outside the box to find other revenue streams, which it has started to do, but I’m not convinced it’s going to be enough.
I don’t expect any schools to leave the ACC for at least a few years, and a lot can change in that time, but things don’t look good for the conference right now.
“Why is it that people who can’t take advice always insist on giving it?”
– James Bond, “Casino Royale” (2006)
Connecticut Huskies head coach Jim Mora before the start of the game against the Liberty Flames at Rentschler Field at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
We all know that the Big 12 is making a strong push to add Pac-12 members and get into the Pacific Time Zone window. Well, a report surfaced last week that the Big 12 could also be targeting UConn as a member for all sports.
Let’s pretend that the report is true and the Huskies accept an invitation to join the Big 12 in the next year or so, it’d mean they’d be joining a third different conference in less than 20 years. Remember, UConn first joined the Big East in all sports in 2004. When the Big East gave up sponsoring football, the Huskies then joined the American Athletic Conference in 2014. In 2019, they re-joined the Big East in every sport except football, which is currently independent. That decision came after several losing seasons in football and a substantial sports-created deficit.
When UConn made the decision to re-join the Big East, it gave me the impression that the school doesn’t care about fielding a competitive football program. The Huskies have struggled in football since 2011 — posting a record of 37-97 and appearing in just two bowl games. My impression didn’t change when the school didn’t play a game during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Big 12 basketball coaches in favor of adding UConn to Big 12, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. UConn “in the mix” as an all-sports addition to the Big 12, sources said
The decision to not prioritize football is a huge mistake in today’s college athletics. Football revenue is the driving force of every athletic department in the country. Why even bother competing at the FBS level if you’re not going to prioritize the sport? It wasn’t even that long ago that UConn had a somewhat competitive football program and made an appearance in the Fiesta Bowl.
So, why would the Big 12 consider the Huskies as an expansion candidate? Well, because of the amount of success the school has had in both men’s and women’s basketball. UConn has a combined 28 appearances in the Final Four and 16 national championships between the two programs since 1991. The Huskies have a quality brand and also provide geographic diversification. I think the Big 12 is serious about adding them.
The Big 12 is arguably the strongest conference in men’s basketball right now. The conference had seven of its 10 members make the NCAA tournament this past season, eight members ranked in the top 50 of KenPom’s rankings, and only one member had a losing record (Oklahoma). The Big 12 also has had a representative in the Final Four in five of the last seven NCAA tournaments, three of those five teams competing in the national championship, and two of those three cutting down the nets. That’s not even counting that two of the Big 12’s soon-to-be members (Cincinnati and Houston) have had success in men’s hoops.
The Big 12 is a hot commodity in college basketball right now, to say the least, which is why the conference also has been in touch with Gonzaga about joining. Men’s basketball is a revenue-generating sport (behind only football) and the Big 12 currently gets a lot of eyeballs. Commissioner Brett Yormark wants the conference to be the best in men’s basketball and adding the Bulldogs and the Huskies will ensure that.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley cuts down the net after defeating the San Diego State Aztecs in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The problem is that if UConn left the Big East for the Big 12, it’d owe approximately $30 million in exit fees. That’s a lot of money for an athletic department that’s in the red by a considerable amount. However, I don’t think UConn will be able to pass up on the opportunity should it present itself.
UConn’s athletic department isn’t going to survive if its football program remains independent. The school isn’t making enough money through basketball to keep the athletic department afloat. This isn’t like when BYU went independent in football and competed in the West Coast Conference in men’s basketball for almost a decade. UConn doesn’t have anywhere near the support from its fanbase as BYU, which I consider to be “Notre Dame Lite.”
If the Huskies get an invitation to the Big 12, I think they have to take it despite their athletic department’s financial situation. A few years with Big 12 revenue will get UConn back in the black, maybe even the green.
Yormark further on B12 expansion and basketball-only teams:
"We do see upside in basketball moving forward for the right reasons. We think it's undervalued and there's a chance to double down as the No. 1 basketball conference. But football is the driver and we all know that."
Yormark is thinking outside the box to create more revenue by trying to make the Big 12 so strong in men’s basketball (and playing games in Mexico), but his first priority is still football. UConn’s chances of joining the Big 12 are likely dependent on if the conference poaches schools from the Pac-12. I think the same goes for Gonzaga, San Diego State, and SMU.
This could all pick up steam in the next few weeks because we’re approaching exactly one year before the Pac-12’s media rights deal expires. The end of this month is also when San Diego State, which has been linked to both the Big 12 and Pac-12 as an expansion candidate, has to notify the Mountain West that it’s leaving or else it has to wait until 2025.
If the Big 12 isn’t able to poach any Pac-12 schools, I expect the Big 12 and other every conference to standpat. At least for a little while longer.
“I’m the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.”
– Staff Sgt. Sean Dignam, “The Departed” (2006)
San Diego State Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher smiles on the sideline against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 San Diego State (32-6) vs. No. 4 UConn (30-8) NRG Stadium Houston Line: UConn -7 Over/under: 132.5
What a wild NCAA tournament it’s been. I said that this tournament had the potential to be one of the best we’ve seen, but I didn’t anticipate it to be this crazy. This is the fourth time in NCAA tournament history that the Final Four didn’t feature a No. 1 seed, and it was the first time that none of the No. 1 seeds made it past the Sweet 16. It’s also the first time since 2014, and second time since 1979, that the national championship didn’t feature a No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seed. That doesn’t mean that I don’t think tonight’s game will be entertaining. Both of these teams are well-coached and are playing great basketball right now.
San Diego State Aztecs guard Matt Bradley (20) and San Diego State Aztecs guard Micah Parrish (3) celebrate against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
This year, San Diego State made it past the Sweet 16 for the first time in program history. The Aztecs now have a chance to win the national championship. Their road to get to this point hasn’t been that impressive, with wins over Charleston, Creighton, and FAU. However, I think San Diego State has proven to be a quality team. The Aztecs made it here because of its defense, which allowed just 60 points per game so far in the tournament. San Diego State hasn’t forced many turnovers, but it’s difficult to score on this team. Opposing teams have shot just 35.9% from the field and 21.5% from 3-point range against the Aztecs. They also held very good offensive teams like Alabama and Creighton to some of their lowest point totals of the season. San Diego State isn’t the best offensive team, but it’s efficient. The Aztecs have made 42% of their shots – 33.3% from 3-point territory – while taking care of the ball. San Diego State will try to slow down the pace of the game, so making shots and getting offensive rebounds is going to be crucial to defeating the Aztecs because there won’t be many possessions.
Connecticut Huskies forward Adama Sanogo (21) reacts after a play against the Miami (Fl) Hurricanes during the second half in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
I suppose you could call UConn one of the usual suspects? Even though the Huskies were down for a stretch, they’re now trying to win their fifth national championship since 1999, and are appearing in their sixth Final Four during the same timeframe. Dan Hurley has done an excellent job rebuilding their program. UConn has been dominant in this tournament. The Huskies have outscored opponents 399-296, which is an average margin of victory of almost 21 points per game, and outrebounded teams 208-154. They’ve also made 49.4% of their shots (40.3% from 3-point territory) compared to their opponents shooting just 34.7% from the field (29% from 3-point territory). Those are substantial differences. UConn is also a balanced team that can win in a variety of ways, whether it’s leaning on big man Adama Sanogo or its deep backcourt. If there’s a weakness with this team, it might be that it hasn’t done the best job of winning the turnover margin. UConn has committed 12.6 turnovers per game and forced just 8.6. That could be problematic if the shots aren’t falling for the Huskies.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley instructs his team against the Miami (Fl) Hurricanes during the first half in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
I’m struggling to see where San Diego State has an advantage in this matchup. For as good as the Aztecs have been on both ends of the court in the tournament, UConn has been much better. The best way to beat a team that likes to slow down the pace of the game is to make shots and collect rebounds to create more possessions, which the Huskies do splendidly. They’re one of the best shooting and offensive rebounding teams in the country. I think UConn matches up very well with the Aztecs. The Huskies have also been a significantly better offensive team and have the size advantage inside to create more scoring opportunities. San Diego State is going to have to have the game of its life defensively, which feels like a tall order given the way UConn has played the last few weeks. I also think Hurley is a better coach than Brian Dutcher. This feels like a game the Huskies ought to win and I’m not sure it’ll be that close. I think UConn is going to win its fifth national championship in program history.
I always enjoy March Madness, but I’m particularly looking forward to it this season. I’m getting tired of the NFL offseason storylines, specifically in regards to Aaron Rodgers and whether he’s going to play in 2023. College basketball is going to bring a refreshing change to my life, at least for the next three weeks. It also feels good having my West Virginia Mountaineers in the NCAA tournament after missing out last year, so I’m going to be even more invested.
Last year was one of the worst jobs I did when it came to filling out a bracket. By the end of the first day of last year’s tournament, Kentucky lost to Saint Peter’s and Iowa lost to Richmond. I had each of those teams getting to the Final Four, and I had Kentucky winning it all. Auburn was eliminated in the second round and Arizona lost in the Sweet 16. I had each of those teams getting to the Elite Eight, and I had Arizona playing for the national championship. If you don’t believe just how bad it was, just take a look.
I think I finished last year with a measly 38 points in all my bracket challenges, because I fill out the same bracket with every group. I’m not 100% sure if that’s the worst I’ve ever done, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not. I consider my reputation to be on the line this year. I need to do better and put last year’s abysmal performance behind me. For the first time ever on this blog, I’m going to be picking the First Four matchups. I don’t understand why I haven’t done that in the past.
My opinion of this NCAA tournament is that it’s one of the strongest ones I’ve ever seen. I think there were six or seven teams that had arguments to be No. 1 seeds. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen that before. There are also a plethora of mid-major schools with a lot of experience. I also wouldn’t bet against Big 12 members. The Big 12 has had four different schools make the Final Four in the last six tournaments. The previous two national champions have also come from that conference. March Madness never fails to be entertaining, but I think this tournament has a chance to be special.
Nevada Wolf Pack center Will Baker (50) drives for a layup against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Arena-Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
First Four – Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16) vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10)
The computers seem to think that there’s a substantial difference between these teams. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks almost 100 spots higher than Southeast Missouri State in KenPom’s rankings. The Redhawks also don’t rank that high in either adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency. The Islanders also have tournament experience from last year.
Winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
No. 11 Pitt (22-11) vs. No. 11 Mississippi State (21-12)
According to the metrics, Pitt is one of the worst teams in the tournament. The Panthers rank No. 77 in KenPom’s rankings, which is the 17th worst of the entire field. Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks – winners of nine of its last 13 games. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Bulldogs.
The metrics consider these teams to be the two worst teams in the field. I don’t know what to make of them, but it’s telling that Fairleigh Dickinson has won 19 games and ranks No. 312 in KenPom’s rankings. That’s behind Texas Southern, which s entering the NCAA tournament six games below .500.
Winner: Texas Southern
No. 11 Nevada (22-10) vs. No. 11 Arizona State (22-12)
ESPN’s BPI rankings considers these teams to be in the bottom 20 of the tournament field. I guess I’m going to give the slight advantage to Arizona State. The Sun Devils have more talent and they’ve played somewhat well recently. Mountain West teams are also 1-11 in the NCAA tournament since 2016.
Winner: Arizona State
Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats talks with Alabama Crimson Tide guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Round of 64
South Regional
No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 1 Alabama (29-5) – Birmingham, Ala.
A No. 16 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed only once in the history of the NCAA tournament. I don’t think I’m ever going to predict it to happen. Alabama looked impressive in the SEC tournament and I expect it to cruise to the next round.
Winner: Alabama
No. 9 West Virginia (19-14) vs. No. 8 Maryland (21-12) – Birmingham, Ala.
WVU feels like a team that’s going to benefit by getting out of Big 12 play. I also think this could be a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers. WVU struggles with turnovers, but Maryland isn’t good at forcing them. The Terrapins also don’t shoot the ball or rebound as well as the Mountaineers. I’m going to rely on the better head coach in Bob Huggins.
Winner: West Virginia
No. 12 Charleston (31-3) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (27-6) – Orlando, Fla.
The 5/12 matchups are always enticing to pick the upset, but I think this is a tough matchup for Charleston. San Diego State rebounds very well and likes to slow the game down. The Cougars don’t shoot the ball that well and they haven’t really been challenged in weeks. I expect the Aztecs to give Charleston a lot of problems.
Winner: San Diego State
No. 13 Furman (27-7) vs. No. 4 Virginia (25-7) – Orlando, Fla.
I flirted with picking the upset in this matchup. Furman is a great offensive team that takes care of the basketball. I’m not sure the Paladins shoot well enough from 3-point territory to upset Virginia, though. The Cavaliers commit the fewest amount of turnovers in the country and shoot the ball well. It’s hard to pick against Tony Bennett and Virginia.
Winner: Virginia
No. 11 NC State (23-10) vs. No. 6 Creighton (21-12) – Denver
I’m not much of a believer in either of these coaches. Neither have had much success in the NCAA tournament. However, this feels like Greg McDermott’s best team at Creighton since his son was there in 2014. The Bluejays have also won 12 of their last 16 games. I feel like Creighton should advance because I didn’t think NC State should’ve made the tournament.
Winner: Creighton
No. 14 UC-Santa Barbara (27-7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (22-10) – Denver
I think this is a flawed Baylor team, but it should be able to take care of business in this game. UC-Santa Barbara is one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament and the Bears rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I expect the Gauchos will have a difficult time slowing down Baylor’s offense. The Bears also have a significant talent and coaching advantage.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Utah State (26-8) vs. No. 7 Missouri (24-9) – Sacramento, Calif.
I can’t get a read on Missouri. Winning 24 games and getting to the semifinals of the SEC tournament is an impressive feat, but the metrics consider the Tigers one of the worst teams in the tournament. Utah State ranks 33 spots higher than Missouri in KenPom’s rankings. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with the Aggies.
Ivy League schools actually have a decent track record in the NCAA tournament. This feels like a tough matchup for Princeton, though. Arizona is loaded with talent and has won 13 of its last 16 games, including winning the Pac-12 tournament.
Winner: Arizona
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) reacts after making a basket and being fouled during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Texas Southern has the ability to rebound, which you need to do in order to beat Purdue. However, there’s no way I’m picking a team with a losing record to upset a No. 1 seed.
This feels like a tough matchup for FAU. I think Memphis is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Tigers are loaded with talent and shoot the ball well. The best way for the Owls to win this game is to force turnovers and I don’t think they do that well enough – ranking No. 154 in the country.
Winner: Memphis
No. 12 Oral Roberts (30-4) vs. No. 5 Duke (26-8) – Orlando, Fla.
Oral Roberts is arguably the strongest No. 12 seed in the tournament. The Golden Eagles are an excellent offensive team and are red hot entering the NCAA tournament – winners of 17 games in a row. However, Duke is playing its best basketball right now after winning the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are also going to have a significant talent advantage.
Even though Tennessee hasn’t been the same since Zakai Zeigler got hurt, I still think it’s plenty talented to win this game. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 58 points per game. I don’t think Louisiana, which ranks No. 57 in adjusted offensive efficiency, is good enough to overcome Tennessee’s defense.
I swore off picking Kentucky to go deep in the tournament after it lost to Saint Peter’s last year. However, I like the Wildcats in this matchup. They rank in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and rebound the ball very well. Providence doesn’t shoot the ball that well and I don’t think it’s talented enough to knock off Kentucky.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 14 Montana State (25-9) vs. No. 3 Kansas State (23-9) – Greensboro, N.C.
I’m not convinced that Montana State is good enough offensively to knock off Kansas State, which ranks in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bobcats don’t shoot that well from 3-point territory and aren’t the best rebounding team. Jerome Tang has done an excellent job in his first season with the Wildcats and I don’t see their season ending here.
Winner: Kansas State
No. 10 USC (22-10) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (19-12) – Columbus, Ohio
I think USC is talented enough to win this game, but I’m going to go with Michigan State. I’m a firm believer that coaching matters in March and the Spartans have that advantage with Tom Izzo, who’s lost in the Round of 64 only twice since 2011. I also think traveling across the country might have a negative effect on the Trojans.
I don’t think this is going to be an easy game for Marquette to win. Vermont is a well-coached team that has been a tough out in the NCAA tournament in its last three appearances. The Golden Eagles are red hot right now, though. They’ve won 19 of their last 21 games, including winning the Big East tournament. I expect Marquette to advance.
Winner: Marquette
Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson gives direction during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Northern Kentucky (22-12) vs. No. 1 Houston (31-3) – Birmingham, Ala.
Northern Kentucky got hot in its conference tournament and clinched a tournament bid, but it’s considered one of the worst teams in the field. The Norse rank in the bottom six in both KenPom and ESPN BPI. Houston shouldn’t have many problems in this game.
Winner: Houston
No. 9 Auburn (20-12) vs. No. 8 Iowa (19-13) – Birmingham, Ala.
I don’t trust Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament. He’s never made it past the first weekend. I also don’t think Iowa is good enough on the defensive end of the court. The Hawkeyes rank near the bottom of the tournament field in adjusted defensive efficiency. Auburn is the more talented team and has the better head coach in Bruce Pearl.
I can’t go the entire Round of 64 without picking an upset in a 12/5 matchup. It happens almost on a yearly basis. I think Miami is vulnerable after losing Norchad Omier in the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have also struggled on the defensive end of the court. Drake is a solid, tournament experienced team. I like the Bulldogs to get the upset.
Winner: Drake
No. 13 Kent State (28-6) vs. No. 4 Indiana (22-11) – Albany, N.Y.
This is another matchup that I like the upset. Indiana isn’t playing particularly well entering the tournament. The Hoosiers have won only four of their last eight games and struggled to score points during that stretch. Kent State has hung tough with a lot of quality teams this season and are strong defensively. I think the Golden Flashes find a way to win.
Winner: Kent State
No. 11 Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Iowa State (19-13) – Greensboro, N.C.
Mississippi State has played well in recent weeks, but it’s going to be tough for it to win this game. Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 62.8 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t shoot the ball well, especially from 3-point territory. I think the Cyclones also have the better head coach in T.J. Otzelberger.
Winner: Iowa State
No. 14 Kennesaw State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Xavier (25-9) – Greensboro, N.C.
By the time this game rolls around, Kennesaw State wouldn’t have played in 12 days. I think that’s going to be problematic, especially against Xavier. The Musketeers are a great offensive team and have played well in their last six games. The Owls are going to have a difficult time after so much time off.
Winner: Xavier
No. 10 Penn State (22-13) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (25-9) – Des Moines, Iowa
I don’t feel good about this, but I’m going to pick Penn State to win this game. The Nittany Lions are red hot – winners of eight of their last 10 games – and came three points shy of winning the Big Ten tournament. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time defending Jalen Pickett, who’s averaged 19.6 points in Penn State’s last 10 games.
Winner: Penn State
No. 15 Colgate (26-8) vs. No. 2 Texas (26-8) – Des Moines, Iowa
I wouldn’t sleep on Colgate in this matchup. The Raiders have made each of the last four NCAA tournaments and rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. However, Texas has won six of its last eight games, including winning the Big 12 tournament. I have to go with the Longhorns.
Winner: Texas
Kansas Jayhawks guard MJ Rice (11) sets the play during the first half against the Texas Longhornsat T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard (22-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (27-7) – Des Moines, Iowa
I’m struggling to see a scenario where a lesser team like Howard knocks off the Big 12 regular season champion, which is an impressive feat considering it was the toughest conference this year. Kansas has too much talent to lose this game.
Winner: Kansas
No. 9 Illinois (20-12) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (20-13) – Des Moines, Iowa
This is a tough game to predict because both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. I’m going to give the advantage to Illinois. Arkansas is hobbling to the tournament – losing 11 of its last 19 games. The Fighting Illini are a well-coached team with plenty of athleticism. I think they’re in a slightly better position right now.
Winner: Illinois
No. 12 VCU (27-7) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) – Albany, N.Y.
I like the upset in this game. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I don’t trust come tournament time. I think VCU is going to want to speed the game up and that style of play is going to give the Gaels some trouble. The Rams also have one of the best defenses in the country – ranking No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
I’m kind of tempted to pick Iona solely because of Rick Pitino. He’s one of the best coaches in college basketball history and he has the Gaels playing well right now. However, I’m going to give the advantage to UConn because it’s the more talented team. I also think the Huskies might be the most underrated team in this tournament.
Winner: UConn
No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU (21-12) – Denver
Jamie Dixon doesn’t have the best track record in the NCAA tournament, but I’m having a difficult time picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs are a talented team and are excellent defensively. Arizona State doesn’t shoot the ball well, which isn’t going to bode well against TCU. This feels like a favorable matchup for the Horned Frogs.
Winner: TCU
No. 14 Grand Canyon (24-11) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (28-5) – Denver
This feels like a bad matchup for Grand Canyon. There are only four teams in the tournament worse than the Antelopes in adjusted defensive efficiency. On the other side, Gonzaga is one of the hottest teams in the country right now and has averaged 90 points in its last 13 games. The Bulldogs also haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2008.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 10 Boise State (24-9) vs. No. 7 Northwestern (21-11) – Sacramento, Calif.
Northwestern is an excellent defensive team, but Boise State plays an interesting style of basketball. The Broncos shoot the ball well and rank in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think points are going to be hard to come by for the Wildcats, who average only 67.7 points per game and shoot 40.6% from the field.
UNC-Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games, but UCLA feels like an under seeded team. The Bruins rank No. 2 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI’s rankings. This feels like it’s going to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs.
Winner: UCLA
Creighton Bluejays guard Ryan Nembhard (2) drives to the basket against Villanova Wildcats guard Justin Moore (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Round of 32
South Regional
No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama – Birmingham, Ala.
I think West Virginia has a chance to make a deep tournament run, but I doubt it’s going to be the team to knock off Alabama. The Mountaineers have been vulnerable defensively – allowing 71 points per game. That’s going to be a problem when going up against the Crimson Tide, who average 82.2 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Virginia – Orlando, Fla.
Both of these teams play a similar style of basketball. They’re going to want to slow the game down. The first team to 60 points might win, honestly. I’ll give the advantage to Virginia. The Cavaliers take care of the basketball very well and shoot the ball better than San Diego State. I also think the Aztecs will struggle to score on Virginia’s defense.
Winner: Virginia
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 3 Baylor – Denver
Despite being a No. 3 seed, I have reservations about Baylor being able to make a deep run. The Bears haven’t been playing well down the stretch – losers of four of their last six games. They’re also not a great defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball very well and does a better job of taking care of the basketball, too. I’ll take the minor upset.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 2 Arizona – Sacramento, Calif.
I don’t think Utah State has the length to contend with Arizona. The Aggies average only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game. I don’t think that’s going to be good enough to knock off the Wildcats, who average 39.4 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). Arizona is one of the better shooting teams in the tournament, too. I expect the Wildcats to advance.
Winner: Arizona
Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional
No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 1 Purdue – Columbus, Ohio
This is going to be a tough matchup for Purdue. The Boilermakers struggle to take care of the basketball at times and Memphis is excellent at forcing turnovers – averaging 15.3 per game. However, the Tigers are going to have a difficult time defending Zach Edey, who averages 22.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. I’ll go with Purdue to squeak out a win.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Duke vs. No. 4 Tennessee – Orlando, Fla.
I don’t see Tennessee being able to make a deep run without Zeigler. The Volunteers aren’t the same team without him. This is going to be a tough matchup for them. Duke is playing very well right now and feels like a vastly under seeded team. The Blue Devils are also going to have the talent advantage. I like them to advance to the Sweet 16.
Winner: Duke
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Kansas State – Greensboro, N.C.
I’ve been burned by John Calipari and Kentucky too many times in recent years. So, I’m going to go with Kansas State to win this game. The Wildcats have the ability to match Kentucky’s rebounding production. I also think Kansas State will be able to expose the Wildcats’ defense, which ranks No. 71 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Kansas State
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Marquette – Columbus, Ohio
Again, I think coaching matters. I don’t trust Shaka Smart, who has a record of 2-8 in the NCAA tournament since 2011 and is winless since 2013. With only two days to prepare, I’m going to give Izzo the advantage. I think Marquette will have a difficult time scoring on Michigan State’s defense, which allows just 67.4 points per game.
Winner: Michigan State
Drake Bulldogs guard D.J. Wilkins (0) reacts after making a three pointer against the Bradley Braves during the first half in the finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 Auburn vs. No. 1 Houston – Birmingham, Ala.
This feels like the furthest Auburn is going to get in the tournament. The Tigers struggle to shoot the ball and have lost nine of their last 13 games. That’s not what it’s going to take to knock off Houston, which ranks No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars are the more athletic team and should be able to take care of business.
Winner: Houston
No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 12 Drake – Albany, N.Y.
I’m going to keep rolling with Drake. The Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in this matchup in Tucker DeVries. Drake is also one of the best shooting teams in the tournament – averaging 47% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point territory. I think the Bulldogs have a good chance of getting past the first weekend.
Winner: Drake
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Xavier – Greensboro, N.C.
While Iowa State is an excellent defensive team, I’m not convinced it has the offense to defeat Xavier. The Musketeers average 81.4 points per game and shoot 49.4% from the floor (39.5% from 3-point territory). They’re also an excellent rebounding team. It feels like too much is going against the Cyclones in this matchup.
Winner: Xavier
No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas – Des Moines, Iowa
Texas has the depth at guard, especially if Timmy Allen is healthy, to give Pickett and Penn State fits. This feels like the end of the road for the Nittany Lions. I doubt Penn State, which ranks No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency, is good enough on that end of the court to upset the Longhorns. Texas is the much better team and should advance.
Winner: Texas
Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) celebrates after a play against the Chicago State Cougars in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 1 Kansas – Des Moines, Iowa
Illinois has what it takes to knock off Kansas. I’ve been burned by the Fighting Illini the last two years, though. They’ve been to inconsistent for me to pick the upset. The Jayhawks are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament – allowing only 67.9 points per game. Illinois is going to have a difficult time scoring points.
Winner: Kansas
No. 12 VCU vs. No. 4 UConn – Albany, N.Y.
UConn’s frontcourt is too talented and it has too much length. I have to pick the Huskies to win this game. If the shots aren’t falling for VCU, I doubt it has what it takes to win this game. UConn makes 46% of its shots and still averages 13.4 offensive rebounds per game. That’s very impressive. I don’t think the Rams will be able to overcome that.
Winner: UConn
No. 6 TCU vs. No. 3 Gonzaga – Denver
I’m not convinced that TCU can get past the first weekend without Eddie Lampkin, who recently entered the transfer portal. The Horned Frogs have also lost eight of their last 13 games. Jamie Dixon also hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the tournament since 2009. Gonzaga is the better team right now and I see no reason to pick against the Bulldogs.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 2 UCLA – Sacramento, Calif.
Even though I’m high on Boise State’s offensive ability, this is going to be a tough matchup. UCLA ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 60.3 points per game. I don’t think the Broncos are talented enough to overcome that. I expect the Bruins to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third-straight year.
Winner: UCLA
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Brandon Miller (24) celebrates after a made basket plus one during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Sweet 16
South Regional semifinals – Louisville, Ky.
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 1 Alabama
I actually think Virginia has what it takes to knock off Alabama. The Cavaliers are very good defensively and don’t make mistakes. If they can ugly this game up, the Crimson Tide could be in trouble. I don’t see that happening, though. Alabama is going to have the best player on the court in Brandon Miller. At the end of the day, I don’t think Virginia is good enough offensively to pull off the upset.
Winner: Alabama
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 2 Arizona
I don’t think Creighton is talented enough to knock off Arizona. I’m also struggling to see which part of this matchup the Bluejays have an advantage. The Wildcats are the better shooting and rebounding team, and are the more efficient offensively. Creighton is going to have to play its best game of the season in order to win. That’s a tall order when March rolls around.
Winner: Arizona
Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski (30) reacts in the second half during the semifinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals – New York
No. 5 Duke vs. No. 1 Purdue
When these teams met in the regular season, Edey was dominant as Purdue rolled to a 19-point victory. I don’t expect a similar result this time around. Duke is a much better team right now and is playing very well defensively. If Mike Krzyzewski was still the head coach of the Blue Devils, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick the upset. I still think Edey is going to be problematic for Duke, though.
Winner: Purdue
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State
I don’t see Michigan State getting further than this point. The Spartans have to make shots at some point, which is something they haven’t done consistently this season. It’s going to be particularly difficult against Kansas State, which kept opponents to shooting just 41.9% from the field (30.1% from 3-point territory). I actually think the Wildcats have a favorable path to the Elite Eight.
Winner: Kansas State
Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr (5) celebrates after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals – Kansas City, Mo.
No. 12 Drake vs. No. 1 Houston
This is a favorable matchup for Houston. While Drake shoots the ball well, it only ranks No. 98 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are going to have a difficult time scoring on the Cougars. Houston allows only 56.5 points per game and opponents shoot just 36.4% from the field (27.8% from 3-point territory). I expect the Cougars to get back to the Elite Eight for the third-straight year.
Winner: Houston
No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas
Despite losing Chris Beard in the middle of the season, I’ve been impressed with Texas all season. The Longhorns are playing at a high level right now. It’s hard for me to pick against them. Sean Miller has become a head coach that I don’t trust come tournament time either. He hasn’t made it past the first weekend since 2017. I think Texas’ backcourt depth will be too much for Xavier.
Winner: Texas
UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) plays against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals – Las Vegas
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Kansas
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for UConn. Kansas allows its opponents to collect 34.8 rebounds per game (10.3 offensive). The Huskies are going to be able to crash the boards against the Jayhawks. UConn has a deeper bench, with nine players averaging at least 13.2 minutes per game. I also question whether Bill Self is ready to coach again after his a health scare in the Big 12 tournament.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA
I still don’t think Gonzaga has been challenged enough in conference play. Excluding Saint Mary’s, the Bulldogs haven’t played a team that ranked higher than No. 75 in KenPom’s rankings since Dec. 2. I think UCLA’s defense is up to the challenge of slowing down Gonzaga’s offense. I also think the Bruins will have the 2021 Final Four meeting between these teams in the back of their mind.
Winner: UCLA
Arizona Wildcats forward Azuolas Tubelis (10) looks to shoot against UCLA Bruins forward Kenneth Nwuba (14) during the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Elite Eight
South Regional final – Louisville, Ky.
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Alabama
I’m not as high on Alabama as everyone else. The Crimson Tide don’t shoot the ball as well as people think – averaging just 44.6% from the field and 33.8% from 3-point territory. I think Arizona matches up very well with Alabama. The Wildcats have the length and superior rebounding ability to upset the Crimson Tide. I also question if Alabama has enough scoring depth, outside of Miller, to win it all. Arizona has had four different players score at least 24 points in a game. That usually translates well in the tournament.
Winner: Arizona
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter gestures to his team during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final – New York
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Purdue
I have a feeling that this regional final is going to look much differently in a few weeks. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding almost every team in this region. However, if these teams meet in the Elite Eight, I expect Purdue to emerge victorious. I don’t think Kansas State is good enough in the paint to limit Edey’s production. If you can’t slow down Edey, you’re going to have a difficult time defeating the Boilermakers. I’m not confident in this pick at all, but I like Purdue to get to the Final Four.
Winner: Purdue
Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser (0) reacts after a three point basket during the first half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final – Kansas City, Mo.
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Houston
I understand why people are hesitant to pick Houston after Marcus Sasser’s injury. However, the Cougars have a favorable path to get to this point, which will give Sasser time to get healthy. Even if he’s not 100%, I think Houston still has plenty of athleticism, depth, and defensive expertise to get back to the Final Four. The Cougars have had four different players score at least 20 points in a game. I also doubt that Texas can get to the Final Four with an interim head coach.
Winner: Houston
Connecticut Huskies guard R.J. Cole (1) looks to pass during the second half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final – Las Vegas
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 2 UCLA
If Jaylen Clark was healthy, I’d pick UCLA to win. I think the Bruins will have a difficult time without him, though. KenPom has UConn ranked No. 4, so it’s a vastly under seeded team in this tournament. That and Clark’s injury are why I like the Huskies to win this game. UConn ranks in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies also have the ability to make shots and get to the free throw line, which is going to be valuable against UCLA.
Winner: UConn
Final Four – Houston
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Purdue
I question if Purdue has enough scoring depth, outside of Edey, in order to win the national championship. Edey has led the Boilermakers in scoring in 24 of their 34 games. I also think Purdue’s inexperienced backcourt will be a problem at some point in the tournament. That’s why I’m not convinced that the Boilermakers are going to get to this point. I’m going to give the advantage to Arizona. The Wildcats have the length to match up with Edey in the paint. They also have an experienced roster, with their top six leading scorers being upperclassmen.
Winner: Arizona
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 1 Houston
I actually wouldn’t rule out UConn winning this game. The Huskies are a much more athletic team than people think, and they have the ability to score. UConn has also fared well in the last 20 years when the Final Four has been in Texas. With this all but being a home game for Houston, I’m going to give the advantage to the Cougars. I think they’re a more complete team than UConn. Houston ranks in the top 12 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies are going to have a difficult time making shots against the Cougars’ stout defense.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
2023 National Championship – Houston
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 1 Houston
I thought Arizona had what it takes to win the national championship last year. The problem was that the Wildcats ran into a defensive buzz saw in Houston in the Sweet 16. I see the same thing happening in this matchup. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country, maybe even the best. They also do a lot of things very well that usually translate to wins in March. Houston won the turnover margin by a ratio of 4.6 and collected an average of 12.8 offensive rebounds per game – ranking in the top 15 in the country in both categories.
If Sasser is healthy, which I’m expecting him to be, I don’t see a team that’s going to be able to slow down the Cougars. There’s a reason why they’re No. 1 in both KenPom and ESPN BPI rankings. Houston just has too much size, athleticism, and scoring depth. I think the Cougars can get adequate production from Jarace Walker, J’Wan Roberts, Jamal Shead, or Truman Mark even if Sasser isn’t 100% healthy.
“You’re right, I do believe the worst is behind us now.”
– Bilbo Baggins, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” (2012)
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few speaks with Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Julian Strawther (0) during a break in play against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during the first half at Comerica Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
I’m a little late to the party on this one, but it was reported last week that Gonzaga met with the Big 12 about potentially joining the conference. This feels like significant news, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
I remember a few weeks ago when the Big East commissioner hinted at the conference potentially adding teams in the near future. Some talking heads speculated that it could target Gonzaga, which I thought made sense. Gonzaga feels like a fit in the Big East when you consider that the school is private and has a Catholic affiliation. The only current Big East schools that aren’t either of those are UConn and, technically, Butler.
Sources:Gonzaga AD Chris Standiford met with Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark in person in Texas last week about Gonzaga potentially joining the Big 12. This is part of broader discussions that have unfolded in recent weeks between the Big 12 and Gonzaga. https://t.co/MbaTEHfveF
Gonzaga has been a member of the West Coast Conference since 1979 and has dominated the conference in men’s basketball. In the last decade, Mark Few has built Gonzaga’s program into a powerhouse. Since 2012-13, Gonzaga has a record of 316-39 and 24-9 in the NCAA tournament, including winning at least 31 games seven times during that stretch.
However, I think being a member of the WCC is holding the Bulldogs back from being more successful. Six WCC teams finished No. 170 or below in Jeff Sagrin’s ratings last season. That’s over half the conference. The Bulldogs try make up for it by scheduling good programs in their non-conference schedule. However, I think playing the likes of San Diego, Portland, Pepperdine, and Pacific in the months leading up to the postseason is a problem. Gonzaga isn’t consistently challenged enough in the WCC, which I think causes the team to be complacent when it matters most. That could be the reason why Gonzaga hasn’t been able to get over the hump in the NCAA tournament.
Gonzaga also probably wants to see if it can join one of the revenue-generating conferences so it can put more money in its pockets. So, it makes total sense for Gonzaga to want to leave the WCC.
I think this is an interesting development, to say the least. I’m a firm believer that Gonzaga could compete in men’s basketball in one of the top conferences. Even though it’s a member of a mid-major conference, I don’t consider the Bulldogs to be a mid-major program. Similar to how I feel about BYU’s football program before joining the Big 12.
The question is if Gonzaga brings enough to the table for one of the revenue-generating conferences to want to add it?
If Gonzaga joined the Big 12, it would mean the league would have the teams that finished No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 in KenPom in 2022.
Not having a football program doesn’t help matters. However, Gonzaga was one of the richest basketball programs in the country in 2020-21. The Bulldogs ranked No. 19 that year, which would’ve been second in the Big 12 behind only TCU. I don’t think that’s insignificant. Gonzaga is a perennial tournament team and I don’t think that’s going to change by joining one of the tougher conferences. That’s important because the NCAA does distribute revenue to the conferences based on how many of their teams compete in the tournament. When you consider that, adding Gonzaga makes sense.
However, is Gonzaga a big enough brand to move the needle enough for the top conferences to justify adding another mouth to feed? I’m not convinced that it is and being on the West Coast doesn’t help matters. However, the fact that these revenue-generating conferences are willing to add Gonzaga might mean that I’m wrong.
Let’s pretend that Gonzaga does join the Big 12 and has to play the likes of Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and eventually Cincinnati and Houston, in basketball on a weekly basis. I think people will absolutely tune in to watch.
I consider the Big 12 to be the most competitive conference in men’s basketball. Excluding Oklahoma and Texas, in the last five years, each member of the conference has made the NCAA tournament, three have made the Final Four and competed in the national championship, and two have won the last two national championships. That’s not even counting Houston, which has made the last four NCAA tournaments and the Final Four in 2021.
While football is the money-maker in college athletics, men’s basketball generates revenue, too. I’d be very surprised if adding Gonzaga doesn’t bring more eyeballs to the Big 12, which would then bring more revenue to the conference. Adding Gonzaga as a member to the Big 12 would be an outside-the-box decision by commissioner Brett Yormark.
I alluded to this kind of decision making last week when the Big 12 finalized a new media-rights deal with ESPN and Fox. Just about anything is on the table right now when it comes to generating more revenue for conferences like the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12. Unless it’s all smoke and mirrors to make the conference appear stronger than it really is, which might not be a terrible decision, I think Yormark is doing a great job.
Kansas Jayhawks forward David McCormack (33) and Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Bryson Williams (11) compete for the tip-off in the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
That brings me to my last point: Gonzaga potentially joining the Big 12 feels like it could be a huge blow to the Pac-12. There’s currently a war for survival between those two conferences, and it’s believed that the Pac-12 was already targeting Gonzaga as a potential member. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this announcement comes less than a week after the Big 12 finalized its new media-rights deal.
If the Big 12 beats the Pac-12 to the punch with a new media-rights deal and by adding Gonzaga, that doesn’t put the Pac-12 in a good spot. I’d argue it makes the Pac-12 appear weaker and the options to generate more revenue will become limited. That isn’t going to please the current members of the Pac-12.
Would be a colossal egg on the Pac-12's face if they let Gonzaga slip away to the Big 12. https://t.co/aMzkl0fiXQ
I definitely didn’t foresee Gonzaga making any kind of impact on conference realignment. We still have a ways to go before anything truly significant happens, though.
Adding Gonzaga would be a nice addition for the Big 12, but it doesn’t mean the end for the Pac-12. There’s still a chance that the Pac-12 could agree to a respectable or better media-rights deal than the Big 12 even without adding Gonzaga. I also doubt that losing out on Gonzaga is going to force the hand of current Pac-12 members to jump ship, although it doesn’t help. I still think whether the Pac-12 will implode hinges on what kind of media-rights deal the conference can get, which is still some time from being announced.
I’m intrigued to see how this plays out between the Big 12 and Pac-12, and not just because my alma mater will be affected by the outcome. The future of these conferences could be decided on whatever Gonzaga decides to do.
“I’m embarrassed. I really thought I could feel it.”
– Ricky Bobby, “Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby” (2006)
Kentucky Wildcats forward Keion Brooks Jr. (12) reacts after losing to the Saint Peter’s Peacocks during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
All I saw this past weekend was people complaining about the state of their NCAA tournament brackets, claiming how their brackets were “busted.”
I want to make it clear that losing one or two of your predicted Sweet 16 teams, or even one or two of your predicted Elite Eight teams isn’t considered a “busted” bracket. That’s just March. It’s time we redefined the term “busted bracket” because some of us are in much worse shape, like myself. So, I really don’t want to hear your complaints.
I strongly debated printing off a copy of my bracket and setting it on fire after the first day of the tournament was completed. Regardless of what happens the rest of this tournament, it’s going to take some time to get the stink off the way I predicted this year’s bracket.
If you think I’m exaggerating, allow me to recap.
Richmond Spiders forward Tyler Burton (3) celebrates with teammates after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
By the end of Thursday evening, No. 2-seeded Kentucky fell to No. 15-seeded Saint Peter’s and No. 5-seeded Iowa lost to No. 12-seeded Richmond. Keep in mind, I picked both of those teams to go to the Final Four, and I had Kentucky cutting down the nets.
Those results came on the first day of the tournament.
I have no idea how the Hawkeyes, who were shooting 47.8% from the field and 41% from 3-point territory in their last 14 games, all of a sudden couldn’t make shots. Richmond wasn’t a very good defensive team, yet Iowa finished the game shooting 36.4% from the field and 20.7% from 3-point range. I know that eventually the shots aren’t going to fall, but how can you not carry over the momentum from winning the Big Ten tournament?
Kentucky’s loss to Saint Peter’s left me dumbfounded. All I heard was how experienced the Wildcats were and how much scoring depth they had this year. Well, that talent and experience certainly didn’t show up against a team that looks like it plays in a high school gym. No offense to Saint Peter’s. I don’t want to hear anymore from the talking heads about how much talent Kentucky has or how great of a head coach John Calipari is, even though the evidence might prove otherwise. As far as I’m concerned, I can’t trust the Wildcats anymore in the tournament.
I’m done picking either of those teams to make deep tournament runs again. If you think my bad luck ends there, I assure you that it doesn’t.
Miami (Fl) Hurricanes guard Bensley Joseph (4) and teammates react from the bench against the Auburn Tigers in the second half during the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The other teams that “busted” my bracket at least waited until the Round of 32 to let me down. So, I guess thank you? I can also stomach their disappointing losses because they lost to fellow Power 5 institutions.
Unlike Kentucky and Iowa, I actually blame myself for picking Auburn and Tennessee to get to the Elite Eight. Both coaches don’t have the best track records in the NCAA tournament. I’ve told myself for years to not trust Bruce Pearl and Rick Barnes, especially Barnes, come tournament time. I’ve even warned my Auburn friends that Pearl is going to disappoint you probably more than once in the tournament.
Like I said, I can tolerate Auburn and Tennessee losing to the likes of Miami and Michigan. Both Jim Larrañaga and Juwan Howard have proven themselves to be good coaches, and both programs have talented players. Michigan also strikes me as a team that was destined for a deep postseason run after playing one of the toughest schedules in college basketball and losing a lot of close games.
Regardless, I didn’t take my own advice when it comes to Pearl and Barnes in the tournament. So, the current humiliation is totally on me.
I could also throw in other schools like UConn, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin as total disappointments.
Michigan Wolverines center Hunter Dickinson (1) celebrates defeating the Tennessee Volunteers during the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Through the first two rounds this year, I’ve collected 38 points. I don’t have a history of all my March Madness picks since I started filling out brackets in 2005. Thanks to this blog, though, I can go back as far as 2017 and track my picks. Believe it or not, those 38 points aren’t the worst I’ve done after the first weekend.
Last year, I had 34 points after the first weekend. However, I didn’t lose two Final Four teams, and my national champion, on the first day of the tournament like I did this year. So, I still think that this year takes the cake for the worst bracket that I’ve predicted.
I’m not going to blame myself, though. Unlike previous years, I don’t think I picked too many upsets. I also didn’t follow college basketball that closely this year. I relied way too much on the word of the so called “experts” on TV/podcasts when I did my research. On top of that, I knew going in that this was going to be an unpredictable tournament. There weren’t many clear favorites in college basketball this season and we’re seeing that in the thick of March Madness.
I love this time of year and I have higher expectations for myself when it comes to filling out brackets. I don’t know about you guys, but I can get tired of the madness quickly.
I can only speak for myself, but March Madness is coming at a good point in my life. I’m getting somewhat tired of the NFL offseason, specifically the drama that occurred between my Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I’m always excited for March Madness, but that feels particularly true this year. I not only need to consume a sport that isn’t football, but I need to write about a sport that isn’t football on this blog.
For the first time since 2019, we’re getting a normal NCAA tournament. Keep in mind that last year’s tournament was played exclusively in Indiana and the tournament was cancelled the year before that. That won’t be the case this year. Fourteen cities across the country will be hosting tournament games and teams won’t be contained to a bubble. It feels good to get back to this point. Let’s hope it stays this way for a long time.
It feels like I say this every year, but this feels like a wide-open tournament. There have been five different teams to hold the No. 1 rank by the Associated Press. That’s not even counting all the other shakeups in the rankings throughout the season. This feels like a tournament that could either be loaded with first-round upsets, or could get wild near the end and have a bunch of No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lose in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. My guess is the latter. I’d completely throw out the seeds when filling out your brackets. This has a chance to be a wild tournament and I did the best I could to try to make predictions.
Round of 64
Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Drew Timme (2) dribbles the basketball against Saint Mary’s Gaels center Mitchell Saxen (10) during the first half in the finals of the WCC Basketball Championships at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Georgia State (18-10) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (26-3) – Portland, Ore.
Only once in NCAA tournament history has a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed in the Round of 64. Gonzaga has made it to the Sweet 16 in each of its last five tournament appearances. I expect a similar result this time around.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 9 Memphis (21-10) vs. No. 8 Boise State (27-7) – Portland, Ore.
I’ve been torn on this game all week. Both of these teams are playing well right now. I’m going to go with Boise State, though. The Broncos have won 24 of their last 27 games, including winning a pretty good Mountain West twice.
Winner: Boise State
No. 12 New Mexico State (26-6) vs. No. 5 UConn (23-9) – Buffalo, N.Y.
New Mexico State is good in a few different areas of the game, but it doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well. UConn has more talent and is much better on the offensive end. I also think Dan Hurley is an underrated coach.
I was so close to picking the upset in this game. I think Vermont is a dangerous team that is capable of pulling off an upset. However, Arkansas is playing well right now – winners of 15 of its last 18 games. I think the Razorbacks get it done.
Winner: Arkansas
No. 11 Notre Dame (23-10) vs. No. 6 Alabama (19-13) – San Diego
I was originally going to pick the upset, but I’m not convinced that Notre Dame/Rutgers is good enough on either end of the court to pull off the upset. Alabama has been inconsistent, but I think it’s just good enough to win this game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 14 Montana State (27-7) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (25-9) – San Diego
Montana State is actually one of the best-shooting teams in the country. However, I doubt that the Bobcats will shoot well against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are an excellent defensive team – ranking in the top 100 in field goal- and 3-point defense.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 10 Davidson (27-6) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (22-12) – Greenville, S.C.
I wouldn’t rule out Davidson in this matchup. The Wildcats are very good at playing fundamental basketball. I could see them giving Michigan State fits. However, Tom Izzo is an excellent coach and the Spartans have more talent.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 15 Cal State Fullerton (21-10) vs. No. 2 Duke (28-6) – Greenville, S.C.
I don’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season, but it has so much talent on its roster. I don’t think Cal State Fullerton will be able to keep up. If this is Mike Krzyzewski’s last run, it can’t end with a loss in the Round of 64.
Winner: Duke
Baylor Bears guard James Akinjo (11) drives to the basket around Oklahoma Sooners guard Jordan Goldwire (0) during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional
No. 16 Norfolk State (24-6) vs. No. 1 Baylor (26-6) – Fort Worth, Texas
No disrespect to Norfolk State, but it ranks in the bottom 20 in the country in strength of schedule. I don’t think the Spartans are going to be ready for Baylor. The Bears are too talented and shouldn’t have many issues advancing to the next round.
Winner: Baylor
No. 9 Marquette (19-12) vs. No. 8 North Carolina (24-9) – Fort Worth, Texas
Shaka Smart doesn’t have a good track record in the tournament. He has a record of 2-7 ever since taking VCU to the Final Four in 2013. I’m having a difficult time trusting Smart and Marquette. I’ll go with North Carolina.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Indiana (21-13) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (25-7) – Portland, Ore.
Saint Mary’s is another team that I’ve learned to never trust in the tournament. The Gaels have made it past the Round of 64 just three times in program history. Indiana has been playing very well since the start of the Big Ten tournament.
I’m not seeing an upset in this matchup. According to KenPom, Akron ranks as the No. 57 team in this tournament. I think the Zips are slightly overseeded. UCLA is the more talented team in this matchup and is built for a deep run.
Winner: UCLA
No. 11 Virginia Tech (23-12) vs. No. 6 Texas (21-11) – Milwaukee
I don’t like picking against Chris Beard, and I do think Texas is under seeded, but this feels like a tough matchup for the Longhorns. Texas has won only nine of its last 18 games, whereas Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15.
No. 10 San Francisco (24-9) vs. No. 7 Murray State (30-2) – Indianapolis
I went back and forth on which team to pick in this matchup. I eventually decided to go with Murray State. The Racers are very good on both ends of the court and have three players who can score 20 points any given night.
Winner: Murray State
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-11) vs. No. 2 Kentucky (26-7) – Indianapolis
Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time defending Kentucky. The Wildcats have a very talented roster and average close to 80 points per game. John Calipari also hasn’t lost in the Round of 64 since his early years at Memphis.
Winner: Kentucky
Arizona Wildcats guard Dalen Terry (4) dunks against the UCLA Bruins during the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional
No. 16 Wright State (22-13) vs. No. 1 Arizona (31-3) – San Diego
Tommy Lloyd has done an excellent job in his first season in Arizona. The Wildcats rank in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. I’m struggling to see a scenario where Wright State/Bryant pulls off the upset.
Winner: Arizona
No. 9 TCU (20-12) vs. No. 8 Seton Hall (21-10) – San Diego
TCU ranks in the bottom 40 in the country in turnovers – committing 14.5 per game – and struggles to shoot the ball. Jamie Dixon is also a coach that I don’t trust in the tournament. I feel like I have to pick Seton Hall.
Winner: Seton Hall
No. 12 UAB (27-7) vs. No. 5 Houston (29-5) – Pittsburgh
UAB has size and shoots the ball well. Houston is going to be very tough matchup for the Blazers, though. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country – allowing only 58.9 points and forcing 14.4 turnovers per game.
If not for late-game heroics, I doubt Chattanooga would be in this position. I think the Mocs are going to have a difficult time defending Illinois’ offense, which averages 75.8 points per game and shoots almost 37% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Illinois
No. 11 Michigan (17-14) vs. No. 6 Colorado State (25-5) – Indianapolis
I’d ignore Michigan’s record. Part of the reason why the Wolverines have 14 losses is because they played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Michigan shoots the ball very well, too. This feels like a tough draw for Colorado State.
Winner: Michigan
No. 14 Longwood (26-6) vs. No. 3 Tennessee (26-7) – Indianapolis
Tennessee is entering the NCAA tournament on a high note. The Volunteers have won 15 of their last 17 games, including winning the SEC tournament a few days ago. I doubt Longwood will pose much of a problem for Tennessee.
Winner: Tennessee
No. 10 Loyola Chicago (25-7) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (19-11) – Pittsburgh
Ohio State is hobbling into the NCAA tournament. The Buckeyes have lost seven of their last 13 games, including four of their last five. I also don’t think Chris Holtmann is much of a coach either. I’ll ride with Sister Jean.
Delaware got hot at the right time in order to punch its ticket to the NCAA tournament. Villanova has the depth and ability to play in a variety of different ways. I expect the Wildcats to give the Fightin’ Blue Hens a lot of trouble.
Winner: Villanova
Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self smiles in the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Texas Southern (19-12) vs. No. 1 Kansas (28-6) – Fort Worth, Texas
Bill Self hasn’t lost a game in the Round of 64 since 2006. I don’t see that streak breaking this year. Kansas isn’t the most talented team in this tournament, but it’s very well rounded. I expect the Jayhawks to roll against Texas Southern.
Winner: Kansas
No. 9 Creighton (22-11) vs. No. 8 San Diego State (23-8) – Fort Worth, Texas
These teams are almost mirror images of each other. They play great defense and can disappear on the offensive end. The team that wins is the one that will be more efficient offensively, so I give the slight advantage to Creighton.
Richmond is certainly capable of pulling off an upset, but I’m having a difficult time picking against Iowa. The Hawkeyes are red hot right now. They’ve won 12 of their last 14 games, including winning the Big Ten tournament.
Winner: Iowa
No. 13 South Dakota State (30-4) vs. No. 4 Providence (25-5) – Buffalo, N.Y.
Don’t sleep on the upset in this matchup. Providence feels like a team that is vastly overseeded. KenPom has the Friars as the No. 43 team in this tournament. However, he also has South Dakota State ranked much lower.
Winner: Providence
No. 11 Iowa State (20-12) vs. No. 6 LSU (22-11) – Milwaukee
This feels like the most likely first-round matchup to end in an upset since LSU fired Will Wade just a few days ago. I have no idea what to expect from the Tigers without their head coach. I think Iowa State gets the win.
Colgate is going to have to do everything right to knock off Wisconsin. The Badgers are one of the best defensive teams in the country – ranking in the top third in the country in points allowed per game and 3-point defense.
Miami feels like a slightly overseeded team. KenPom has the Hurricanes as the No. 48 team in this tournament. They also weren’t that impressive in a weak ACC this season. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll go with USC.
Winner: USC
No. 15 Jacksonville State (21-10) vs. No. 2 Auburn (27-5) – Greenville, S.C.
Auburn has kind of stumbled in recent weeks – losing four of its last nine games. However, I don’t think Jacksonville State is good enough on the offensive end to get the upset. The Tigers are very talented team and should win.
Winner: Auburn
Round of 32
Connecticut Huskies forward Isaiah Whaley (5) celebrates with guard Tyrese Martin (4) after blocking a shot in the first half against the Villanova Wildcats at the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 1 Gonzaga – Portland, Ore.
Boise State could make this a game because it does a good job of offensive rebounding – grabbing 10.2 per game. I’m not convinced that’s going to be good enough to upset Gonzaga, though. The Bulldogs should have the talent and coaching advantage in this matchup.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 4 Arkansas – Buffalo, N.Y.
I don’t really have anything scientific with this pick, but I’ll take UConn to win. KenPom and NET have the Huskies ranked higher than Arkansas, and Nate Silver gives UConn a 49% chance to advance to the Sweet 16. The Huskies are also playing well right now – winners of seven of their last nine games.
Winner: UConn
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Texas Tech – San Diego
Unless your team is incredibly efficient on the offensive end, I think you’re going to have a hard time beating Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rank in the top 20 in the country in field goal defense, turnovers forced, and defensive rebounds. I expect Alabama to have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke – Greenville, S.C.
I wouldn’t quickly pencil in Duke to win this game. I think Michigan State matches up well with Duke because neither team has shown consistency this season. There’s a good chance that Izzo uglies this game up in order to pull off the upset. I still expect the Blue Devils to get it done, though.
Winner: Duke
Virginia Tech Hokies guard Hunter Cattoor (0) reacts after hitting a three point shot against the Duke Blue Devils during the first half of the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament final at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Baylor – Fort Worth, Texas
I think Baylor is the most vulnerable No. 1 seed this year. The Bears aren’t consistent enough on the offensive end. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose this game, but this is going to essentially be a home game for them and they have the coaching advantage in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
No. 12 Indiana vs. No. 4 UCLA – Portland, Ore.
UCLA does a really good job of taking care of the basketball. I think that’s very important in the tournament. The teams that don’t beat themselves typically make deep runs. That’s why I expect the Bruins to win this game. They’re too talented and don’t hurt themselves.
Winner: UCLA
No. 11 Virginia Tech vs. No. 3 Purdue – Milwaukee
Both of these teams have the ability to make shots and be efficient offensively. So, the winner is going to be the team that can make stops. I don’t think Purdue can do that. According to KenPom, the Boilermakers rank among the bottom 20 teams in the tournament in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Virginia Tech
No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 2 Kentucky – Indianapolis
This is going to be a difficult matchup for Kentucky. I think Murray State is much better than its seed would indicate. The Racers have the scoring ability to go toe-to-toe with the Wildcats. I think Kentucky’s combination of talent, depth, and coaching will be the difference maker, though.
Winner: Kentucky
Houston Cougars guard Kyler Edwards (11) celebrates after scoring a three point shot against the Memphis Tigers during the first half at Dickies Arena. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 1 Arizona – San Diego
Seton Hall feels like it might be an underseeded team. The Pirates rank in the top 75 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but I don’t think they have the horses to upset Arizona. The Wildcats have the deeper and more talented team. I like them to advance.
Winner: Arizona
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 4 Illinois – Pittsburgh
I’m going to give the advantage to Houston in this matchup. The Cougars have a ton of scoring depth, with six players averaging at least 10.1 points per game. They also rank in the top 10 among tournament teams in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Houston
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 3 Tennessee – Indianapolis
Michigan got the benefit of the doubt because it played a tough schedule. I don’t see the Wolverines getting past this point, though. I have a hard time trusting teams to figure it out in the tournament when they didn’t in the regular season. I expect Tennessee to take care of business.
Winner: Tennessee
No. 10 Loyola Chicago vs. No. 2 Villanova – Pittsburgh
Loyola Chicago likes to slow it down and force opponents to play its way, but I don’t think that’ll effect Villanova. The Wildcats also don’t play with much tempo – ranking second to last among tournament teams – and are still efficient offensively. I think Villanova matches up well with the Ramblers.
Winner: Villanova
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Tony Perkins (11) and forward Keegan Murray (15) celebrate beating Purdue Boilermakers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 Creighton vs. No. 1 Kansas – Fort Worth, Texas
Creighton is one of the worst offensive teams in the tournament. The Bluejays rank in the bottom 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re likely going to have a difficult time scoring on Kansas, which ranks in the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Jayhawks ought to be able to advance.
Winner: Kansas
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 4 Providence – Buffalo, N.Y.
Ed Cooley has done a great job building up Providence in the last decade, but he doesn’t have a great track record in the NCAA tournament – winning one game in five appearances. Iowa is hot right now – averaging 85.2 points in its last 14 games. I think the Hawkeyes keep their momentum going.
Winner: Iowa
No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Wisconsin – Milwaukee
Iowa State is another team that isn’t very good on the offensive end – ranking among the bottom 10 teams in the tournament in adjusted offensive efficiency. Dating back to the Bo Ryan days, Wisconsin is always a tough team defensively. This feels like a nightmare matchup for the Cyclones.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 7 USC vs. No. 2 Auburn – Greenville, S.C.
I flirted with taking the upset, but changed my mind after doing some research. USC isn’t very good offensively and is one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers. I haven’t been that impressed with Auburn recently, but it’ll advance if it takes care of the ball.
Winner: Auburn
Sweet 16
Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski coaches against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half of the ACC Tournament semifinal game at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals – San Francisco
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
I think UConn matches up well with Gonzaga. The Huskies rank in the top six in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounds, and I think they might have the better backcourt. Keep in mind, the Huskies have played well this season when they’ve had a healthy lineup. I think Mark Few will have his team ready after almost a full week of preparation, though.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Duke
I’m not trying to sound like a Duke hater, but I’m semi-convinced that the tournament will be rigged for Krzyzewski to go out on top. This game will be a tough matchup for the Blue Devils, though. They have one of the youngest rosters in the country and lack an offensive identity. I don’t think that’s a good recipe when going up against Texas Tech’s defense. I’ll take the Red Raiders.
Winner: Texas Tech
UCLA Bruins guard Jules Bernard (1) dribbles behind Arizona Wildcats guard Justin Kier (5) during the first half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals – Philadelphia
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 1 Baylor
I think UCLA is the most underrated team in this tournament. The Bruins rank in the top 15 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They also do a good job of making 3-pointers, free throws, and limiting turnovers. Baylor’s offense is too inconsistent at times. The Bears also don’t shoot the ball particularly well and turn the ball over too much. I’ll pick UCLA to get the upset.
Winner: UCLA
No. 11 Virginia Tech vs. No. 2 Kentucky
This feels like when Virginia Tech’s run is going to end. The Hokies don’t match up with Kentucky. Virginia Tech is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country – averaging only 8.6 offensive rebounds and 32.2 total rebounds per game. I think Oscar Tshiebwe, who’s the frontrunner to win Naismith College Player of the Year, and the Wildcats’ frontcourt will be too much for the Hokies.
Winner: Kentucky
Tennessee Volunteers guard Zakai Zeigler (5) drives to the basket against Texas A&M Aggies forward Ethan Henderson (10) in the first half at Amelie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals – San Antonio
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 1 Arizona
If Houston was healthy and in another bracket, I’d probably pick it to go much deeper in the tournament. Facing Arizona in the Sweet 16 is a tough draw. I’ll give the Wildcats the advantage because I think they’ll be the healthier team. Arizona also has more scoring depth, with four players who average at least 10.1 points per game, and then another five players who average between 5.0-7.6 points.
Winner: Arizona
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Villanova
I usually don’t trust Rick Barnes in the NCAA tournament. However, Tennessee is playing very well right now. Villanova’s lack of a post presence worries me. I also think the Wildcats rely too much on 3-pointers – ranking No. 4 in 3-point attempts among tournament teams. Opponents have shot only 31.2% from beyond the arc against the Volunteers this season.
Winner: Tennessee
Wisconsin Badgers guard Brad Davison (34) shoots the ball while Michigan State Spartans guard Max Christie (5) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals – Chicago
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 1 Kansas
I’m actually not crazy about this Kansas team. It’s far from Self’s most talented team. The Jayhawks also aren’t great when Ochai Agbaji isn’t making shots. I don’t trust the rest of their lineup to step up if Agbaji doesn’t get going. Iowa is arguably the hottest team in the country and it might have the best player in the tournament in Murray Keegan. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll take the Hawkeyes.
Winner: Iowa
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 2 Auburn
I think Wisconsin is way too reliant on Johnny Davis. If he gets hot, Wisconsin ought to win this game. I think that’s going to be a tall order against Auburn’s defense, which ranks in the top 100 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, field-goal defense, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. I don’t really trust the Tigers, but this feels like a favorable matchup for them.
Winner: Auburn
Elite Eight
Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Davion Warren (2) looks for an opening around Kansas Jayhawks guard Dajuan Harris Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final – San Francisco
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
Texas Tech has what it takes to knock off Gonzaga. The Red Raiders are excellent defensively and are physical in the paint. They’ll be able to body Drew Timme and collect rebounds. That’s the key to beating the Bulldogs. At some point, though, Texas Tech has to be able to make shots, which it hasn’t been able to do consistently this season. I’m not sold on Gonzaga getting to the Final Four, but I can’t deny that it’s the best overall team in this region.
Winner: Gonzaga
Kentucky Wildcats forward Oscar Tshiebwe (34) reacts after a basket against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Amelie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final – Philadelphia
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 2 Kentucky
I don’t anticipate UCLA to have quite the same run as it did last year. Even though I think the Bruins are an underrated team, they had some magic last year that I doubt they’ll be able to replicate. UCLA also doesn’t match up that well with Kentucky. The Bruins don’t have as good of a post presence as the Wildcats. I think UCLA will struggle to contain Tshiebwe. If the Bruins somehow manage to contain him, this Kentucky team has the ability to make shots.
Winner: Kentucky
Arizona Wildcats center Oumar Ballo (11) celebrates after the Wildcats defeated the UCLA Bruins to win the Pac-12 Conference Championship at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final – San Antonio
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Arizona
Tennessee is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. However, the Volunteers don’t have enough scoring depth to knock off Arizona. Tennessee only has two players who average double figures, and only four other players who average between 5.0 to 9.9 points. The Wildcats had five different players lead the team in scoring this season, and four of those players also eclipsed 20 points. I think that’s going to be tough for Tennessee to overcome.
Winner: Arizona
Auburn Tigers guard Wendell Green Jr. (1) drives to the basket as Texas A&M Aggies guard Hassan Diarra (5) defends during the second half at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final – Chicago
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 2 Auburn
I don’t believe that I’ve ever picked any team lower than a No. 4 seed to make the Final Four. There’s a first time for everything, though. I can’t say it enough that I really like the way that Iowa has been playing. In their last 14 games, the Hawkeyes are shooting 47.8% from the field and 41.3% from 3-point territory. Auburn’s inconsistent backcourt worries me a lot, too, and I don’t trust Bruce Pearl as a head coach. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Iowa to beat the Tigers.
Winner: Iowa
Final Four – New Orleans
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
I’ve been adamant in the past about why I don’t trust Gonzaga in the NCAA tournament. My opinion isn’t changing this year. I don’t think the Bulldogs are challenged enough in the regular season and I think that’s always going to hurt them. I also don’t think Gonzaga is as good of a team as last year. The Bulldogs aren’t as strong in the post and their backcourt has been inconsistent. I think Kentucky matches up very well with Gonzaga. The Wildcats are physical and can limit Timme’s production down low. Kentucky also has a deep scoring lineup.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 1 Arizona
Momentum only lasts for so long in the tournament. Sure, every now and then a team like UConn in 2011 and 2014 gets hot and wins the whole thing, but it’s rare. Iowa has been shooting the ball well, but I think you also need size and a great defense to beat a team of Arizona’s caliber. The Hawkeyes struggle on the defensive end of the court – ranking in the bottom half among tournament teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats have one of the deepest and biggest lineups in the country. I expect Iowa to have a difficult time getting shots off against Arizona.
Winner: Arizona
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship – New Orleans
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Arizona
I have a pair of wildcats playing for the national championship. Sorry, I had to point that out. This Kentucky team actually feels like it could be John Calipari’s best team. It’s not necessarily Calipari’s most talented team, even though it’s not that much of a drop-off, but Kentucky has an experienced roster for a change and it can win in a variety of ways. I also think Kentucky has the scoring depth to match Arizona. Kentucky had seven different players lead the team in scoring this season, and six of them eclipsed 20 points. Arizona is going to have a difficult time defending Kentucky’s offense. In one game for all the marbles, I have more trust in Calipari than I do Lloyd. I think Kentucky will be cutting down the nets.
All Things Sports from a Millennial 