“I don’t like it, I don’t agree with it, but I accept it.”
— Lando Calrissian, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” (2018)
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to players against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Purdue (34-4) vs. No. 1 UConn (36-3) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: UConn -6.5 Over/under: 145.5
Contrary to what we all thought would happen after the way the conference tournaments played out, this NCAA tournament has been pretty normal. The only double-digit seed to advance past the first weekend (and eventually to the Final Four) was a Power 5 school. That’s partly why we have two No. 1 seeds competing in the national championship for the first time since 2021, and just the third time since 2008. UConn and Purdue have been the most consistent teams in this tournament, combining for an average margin of victory of 22.3 points per game. This has a chance to be an entertaining title game.
North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) knocks the ball away from Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) during the second half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After last year’s embarrassing loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers have gotten the monkey off their back by getting to this point. The biggest difference between this Purdue team and last year’s team is a much improved backcourt. In five tournament games, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones have combined to shoot 40.5% from 3-point territory, and committed just 4.6 turnovers per game and averaged nearly 10 points per game apiece. They do a great job of complementing Zach Edey, who’s considered the best player in the country and has averaged 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the tournament. The Boilermakers have also been excellent defensively in their last five games — allowing only 60.2 points per game and holding teams to shoot just 39.3% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. If Purdue continues to shoot well from 3-point range and collect offensive rebounds, it certainly has a chance to knock off the Huskies.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson (2) shoots against Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/Arizona Republic-USA TODAY Sports
The defending national champions have shown no signs of slowing down the last few weeks. The Huskies have won 26 of their last 27 games by an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. They’ve been impressive offensively in their last five games — shooting 50.8% from the field, and collecting 12 offensive rebounds per game and committing just eight turnovers per game. Unlike the Boilermakers, UConn’s offense has a very balanced scoring attack. The Huskies have had six different players score at least 10 points in a game in tournament play. UConn has also been just as good, if not better, on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies have allowed only 57.2 points per game, and held opposing teams to shoot just 34.6% from the field and 28.1% from beyond the arc. My only concern with UConn is its 3-point shooting, which has been lukewarm at best recently. When you factor that, it’s even more impressive how the Huskies have been able to win games in the tournament so convincingly.
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The deciding factor of this game will likely be which team can win in the paint. Even though the Boilermakers have Edey (7’4″), I’m giving that advantage to UConn. The Huskies have more depth in the post with the trio of Donovan Clingan (7’2″), Alex Karaban (6’8″), and Samson Johnson (6’10”), who’ve combined to tally 26 blocks and 80 rebounds in five tournament games. They’ll be a problem for Edey, who isn’t very athletic. If Edey can’t get going, I don’t know how the Boilermakers win. I doubt their backcourt is good enough to pick up the slack given how well UConn has defended 3-pointers. The Huskies have more talent and scoring depth than Purdue, too. I like that UConn has won games in a variety of different ways despite not shooting well from beyond the arc. That’s a sign of a great team. I also think the Huskies will have a significant coaching advantage with Dan Hurley. It just feels like UConn is destined to be the first team to repeat as national champions since Florida did it in 2006-07.
“The visions are clear now. I see possible futures, all at once. Our enemies are all around us, and in so many futures they prevail. But I do see a way, there is a narrow way through.”
— Paul Atreides, “Dune: Part Two” (2024)
It’s time to fill out brackets because March Madness is here. I won’t lie, I haven’t paid much attention to the college basketball regular season. That means that I’m either going to do horribly or get almost every pick correct. I’ve been cramming in research the last 40(ish) hours since the bracket was revealed Sunday. I now wish that my West Virginia Mountaineers had given me a reason to care about this college basketball season.
Two years ago was the worst I’ve ever done when it comes to predicting the NCAA Tournament. I lost two Final Four teams, including my national champion, on the first day of the tournament. I was a little better last year, but still wasn’t great thanks to Arizona and Purdue letting me down on, you guessed it, the first day of the tournament. I feel like my reputation is on the line this year, so I really need a good showing. That’s why I relied pretty heavily on KenPom rankings.
We saw so many upsets in the conference tournaments last week, which is why this was one of the craziest “on the bubble” debates in years. It certainly feels like we’re in for another very unpredictable NCAA tournament. However, the last two tournaments were two of the craziest that I’ve witnessed in my life. I also think we’re due for a tournament where we see mostly chalk.
As always, March Madness is a welcome sight at this point in the sports calendar. I need something to take my attention away from NFL free agency news, which is pretty dry right now. Keep your head on a swivel these next three weeks. I can already feel my bracket being busted.
Colorado Buffaloes forward Tristan da Silva (23) celebrates with guard K.J. Simpson (2) in the first half against the California Golden Bears at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
First Four — Dayton, Ohio
No. 16 Wagner (16-15) vs. No. 16 Howard (18-16)
I’ll give the advantage to Howard in this matchup. The Bison not only rank higher in KenPom rankings, but they’ve won nine of their last 11 games. They also have tournament experience after making an appearance last year. I doubt Wagner, which averages just 63.5 points per game, is good enough offensively to win in the tournament.
Winner: Howard
No. 10 Colorado State (24-10) vs. No. 10 Virginia (23-10)
Mountain West teams haven’t performed well in the tournament for the last decade — posting a record of 12-26 since 2013. However, I think Colorado State is an underseeded team. The Rams rank 31 spots higher than Virginia in KenPom rankings. That’s quite a disparity. The Cavaliers also lost five of their last nine games to end the regular season.
Winner: Colorado State
No. 16 Grambling State (20-14) vs. No. 16 Montana State (17-17)
There’s quite a disparity between these teams when it comes to KenPom rankings. Montana State ranks No. 213, whereas Grambling State ranks No. 267. I’ll give the advantage to to the Bobcats. I’m not convinced that the Tigers are good enough offensively — averaging just 67.6 points per game — to score on Montana State’s defense.
Winner: Montana State
No. 10 Colorado (24-10) vs. No. 10 Boise State (22-10)
Colorado is another team that I think is underseeded. The Buffaloes rank in the top 30 in the country, according to KenPom (Boise State ranks No. 39). They also ended the season on a positive note — winning eight of their last nine games. The Broncos have never won a tournament game in program history and I doubt that changes this year.
Winner: Colorado
Round of 64
Connecticut Huskies guard Tristen Newton (2) drives to the basket against St. John’s Red Storm guard Daniss Jenkins (5) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have a difficult time seeing UConn getting bounced early in this tournament. The Huskies have too much depth and have been the most consistent team in the country all season. No. 16 seeds have been more competitive against No. 1 seeds in recent years, but I don’t see an upset happening in this matchup. UConn should cruise to the next round.
Florida Atlantic hasn’t been as consistent this season as last season. The Owls are still a very good team, though. They rank in the top 45 in KenPom, and rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Northwestern will have a very difficult time defensively in this matchup. I also think Florida Atlantic has the coaching advantage in Dusty May.
Winner: Florida Atlantic
No. 12 UAB (22-11) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) — Spokane, Wash.
We didn’t get a single No. 12 seed to upset a No. 5 seed last year. In the last 20 years, history says to expect at least two upsets the year after that happens. I’m not convinced there will be an upset in this matchup, though. San Diego State is an elite defensive team and UAB isn’t a great offensive team. I think the Blazers will have a difficult time scoring on the Aztecs.
Ivy League schools are always tricky teams in the tournament. This won’t be an easy game for Auburn. I’m still picking the Tigers to win, though. They rank No. 4 in the country in KenPom rankings, so they might be the most underseeded team in this tournament field. Yale isn’t a terrific defensive team, which should bode well for Auburn, which averages 83.2 points per game.
Duquesne is a hot team right now, but I doubt it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. BYU ranks No. 16 in the country, according to KenPom, so it’s a very underseeded team. The Cougars are also one of the top offensive teams in the country — ranking No. 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt the Dukes will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: BYU
No. 14 Morehead State (26-8) vs. No. 3 Illinois (26-8) — Omaha, Neb.
The Big Ten tournament champion hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019. I wouldn’t be so quick to pick Illinois to win this game given that track record. I’ll still pick the Fighting Illini to win, though. They’ve been playing well since late January — winning 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake (28-6) vs. No. 7 Washington State (24-9) — Omaha, Neb.
The line of this game has shifted quite a bit in favor of Drake since it opened. I think that’s pretty telling to take the Bulldogs seriously in this matchup. Drake will likely have the best player in this game in Tucker DeVries, who averages 21.8 points per game. I think Washington State’s defense will have its hands full with him. The Bulldogs also have more tournament experience.
Winner: Drake
No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) — Omaha, Neb.
I can’t bring myself to pick against Iowa State in this matchup. The Cyclones are red hot right now after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including winning three Big 12 tournament games by a combined 61 points. This is one of the weaker South Dakota State teams in the last 15 years. I also expect this to essentially be a home game for Iowa State.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis (4) shoots the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 North Carolina (27-7) — Charlotte, N.C.
North Carolina has played like one of the top teams in the country the last few weeks, even though it might be overseeded a bit. The Tar Heels have won 20 of their last 24 games. If not for an NC State team getting hot at the right time, North Carolina probably would’ve won the ACC tournament. I highly doubt Howard is good enough to pull off a historic upset.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 9 Michigan State (19-14) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13) — Charlotte, N.C.
Mississippi State is playing well right now, but I’ll give the advantage to Michigan State in this matchup. Tom Izzo has been one-and-done just six times in his previous 25 tournament appearances. I also think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time scoring on the Spartans’ defense, which ranks in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Winner: Michigan State
No. 12 Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7) — Spokane, Wash.
I think this is the mostly likely 5/12 matchup to end in an upset. Grand Canyon is the highest ranking No. 12 seed in KenPom (No. 53). The Antelopes have lost only four games all season and they have a head coach with plenty of tournament experience in Bryce Drew. Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that I never trust in the tournament and I won’t start now.
Alabama didn’t end the regular season on a positive note — losing four of its last six games. I wouldn’t rule out a potential upset in this matchup, but I don’t see it happening. Charleston is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. You have to be a great defensive team in order to knock off the Crimson Tide, who average 90.8 points per game.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico (26-9) vs. No. 6 Clemson (21-11) — Memphis, Tenn.
I’ve mostly picked against Mountain West schools so far, but I’ll take the upset here. Clemson isn’t playing well right now. The Tigers have lost four of their last eight games, including two losses to very bad Notre Dame and Boston College teams. New Mexico is surging after winning its conference tournament last week. Vegas also favors the Lobos in this matchup.
Even though Colgate will be making its fourth-consecutive tournament appearance, I don’t take it that seriously. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined 44 points during that stretch. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I doubt Colgate will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada (26-7) vs. No. 7 Dayton (24-7) — Salt Lake City
I feel an upset brewing in this matchup. Dayton has to make a long trip west despite being the higher seed, which benefits Nevada. The Wolf Pack played well down the stretch — winning 11 of their last 14 games. I think the Flyers have been too inconsistent defensively all season. Nevada also ranks in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Winner: Nevada
No. 15 Long Beach State (21-14) vs. No. 2 Arizona (25-8) — Salt Lake City
I have a difficult time seeing Arizona getting bounced early in back-to-back seasons. The Wildcats shoot the ball very well and rank in the top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds. That ought to bode well in the tournament. Long Beach State is one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament field. I think the Beach will have a difficult time slowing down Arizona’s offense.
Winner: Arizona
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) drives with the ball as Rice Owls guard Alem Huseinovic (23) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
I fully expect Houston to bounce back after getting blown out in the Big 12 championship. The Cougars are one of the more talented teams in this tournament and are excellent defensively. This is a very bad matchup for Longwood, which ranks near the bottom among tournament teams offensively. Houston shouldn’t have too many issues in this matchup.
I think this is a terrible matchup for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rank in the bottom third in the country in offensive rebounds and total rebounds allowed per game. Texas A&M doesn’t shoot the ball that well, but getting second-chance opportunities will only improve its chances of winning. The Aggies are also playing well after winning five of their last six games.
Winner: Texas A&M
No. 12 James Madison (31-3) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (22-13) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
James Madison poses a lot of problems for Wisconsin. The Dukes rank in the top five in defending 3-pointers. They’ve also won 13 straight games. I’m still picking the Badgers to win, though. They shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball. The difference in the game will likely be which team collects more offensive rebounds, and I give that advantage to Wisconsin.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 13 Vermont (28-6) vs. No. 4 Duke (24-8) — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I’m to the point that I need to see Vermont pull off an upset in the tournament before I pick it to do so. The Catamounts have never advanced past the Round of 64 under head coach John Becker. That’s why I’ll take Duke to win this game. The Blue Devils will have a significant talent advantage, which will likely be the difference in this matchup.
Winner: Duke
No. 11 NC State (22-14) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) — Pittsburgh
I think NC State will be gassed after winning five games in five days in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack now have a quick turnaround and play on Thursday. I think that bodes well for Texas Tech, which KenPom considers to be a top 25 team in the country. The Red Raiders have been the far more consistent team all season. I like them to advance to the next round.
Kentucky has been very inconsistent defensively, but I still expect it to win this game. Oakland isn’t a very good offensive team — ranking in the bottom 15 among tournament teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. I highly doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Wildcats. I expect Kentucky to advance to the Round of 32.
Winner: Kentucky
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Florida (24-11) — Indianapolis
This is a dangerous matchup for Florida. The Gators aren’t a great defensive team and will be shorthanded, and Colorado is a good offensive team. This will likely be a very high-scoring game, but I’ll still give the advantage to Florida. The Gators are elite offensively — ranking in the top 15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game, and offensive rebounding.
Winner: Florida
No. 15 Western Kentucky (22-11) vs. No. 2 Marquette (25-9) — Indianapolis
I think this is a very bad matchup for Western Kentucky, which struggles on the offensive end of the court. Marquette is one of the better defensive teams in this tournament — ranking in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Points will be hard to come by for the Hilltoppers, which will make it incredibly difficult to pull off the upset.
Winner: Marquette
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Kel’el Ware (1) defends in the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 16 Montana State vs. No. 1 Purdue (29-4) — Indianapolis
I highly doubt Purdue will overlook its opponent this year. I fully expect last year’s loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to be in the back of its mind. The Boilermakers might have the best player in the tournament in Zach Edey, who averages 24.4 points per game. Like Arizona, I don’t think Purdue will be bounced early in back-to-back seasons.
Winner: Purdue
No. 9 TCU (21-12) vs. No. 8 Utah State (27-6) — Indianapolis
Given the Mountain West’s recent history in the tournament, there’s no way I’m picking against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 15 spots ahead of Utah State in KenPom rankings, and in the top 50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and offensive rebounds. This feels like a very bad matchup for the Aggies.
Winner: TCU
No. 12 McNeese State (30-3) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) — Salt Lake City
McNeese State will be a trendy pick because it’s one of the most improved teams in the country from last year, and this isn’t a great Gonzaga team. However, I’m not picking against Mark Few. He hasn’t been eliminated in the Round of 64 since 2008. KenPom also considers Gonzaga to be a top 15 team in the country, so it feels like a very underseeded team.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 13 Samford (29-5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (22-10) — Salt Lake City
I actually came close to picking the upset in this game. Kansas was hobbling at the end of the regular season — losing six of its last 10 games, including back-to-back losses by a combined 50 points. The Jayhawks have also sustained injuries to some of their better players. I still think Kansas has what it takes to beat Samford, which struggles on the defensive end of the court.
Winner: Kansas
No. 11 Oregon (23-11) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) — Pittsburgh
I’m not doubting Dana Altman in the tournament. He’s never lost in the Round of 64 as Oregon’s head coach. Altman has even made it past the first weekend five times in the last seven tournament appearances with the Ducks. South Carolina has been a good story to get to this point. I just think the Gamecocks are catching Oregon at the wrong time.
Akron managed to win the MAC tournament, but I’m not convinced it’s good enough to pull off the upset in this matchup. The Zips have been too inconsistent on both ends of the court all season. Creighton is an excellent offensive team — averaging 80.5 points per game. I have more trust in the Bluejays, who haven’t lost in the Round of 64 since 2018.
Winner: Creighton
No. 10 Colorado State vs. No. 7 Texas (20-12) — Charlotte, N.C.
I think Texas is a better team than what its record would indicate. The Longhorns had bad luck in Big 12 play (losing six games by fewer than 10 points). They should benefit by getting out of conference play. Texas will also have a significant talent advantage in this matchup. Colorado State struggles to defend 3-pointers and the Longhorns rank in the top 60 in 3-point shooting.
Winner: Texas
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) — Charlotte, N.C.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have caught fire the last few weeks — winning eight of their last 10 games. I expect Tennessee to win this game comfortably, though. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. I think Saint Peter’s will have a difficult time scoring enough points to pull off the upset.
Winner: Tennessee
Round of 32
Iowa State Cyclones guard Keshon Gilbert (10) drives around Houston Cougars guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Atlantic’s defense is the main reason why I doubt it can make another deep run like last year. The Owls rank No. 109 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also allow 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them in the bottom half of the country. This feels like a mismatch in favor of UConn. The Huskies have plenty of scoring depth and too much size in the post.
Winner: UConn
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 Auburn — Spokane, Wash.
I actually think Auburn matches up well against San Diego State’s defense. The Tigers shoot the ball well and do a good job collecting offensive rebounds. They also have scoring depth, with six different players averaging at least 7.1 points per game, and 11 different players to play in at least 28 games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the depth to keep up with Auburn.
Winner: Auburn
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 3 Illinois — Omaha, Neb.
This will likely be a difficult matchup for BYU to pull off the upset. Illinois has a lot of depth, with nine different players appearing in at least 24 games, and one of the best guards in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. The Fighting Illini can also win in a variety of ways, which is always valuable in the tournament. I also think Brad Underwood is a better coach than Mark Pope.
Winner: Illinois
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 2 Iowa State — Omaha, Neb.
Having DeVries might be good enough to beat Washington State, but I doubt it’ll be enough to upset Iowa State. The Cyclones are arguably the best defensive team in the country — ranking in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. I think the Bulldogs will have a difficult time winning if DeVries has limited scoring chances.
Winner: Iowa State
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional
No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina — Charlotte, N.C.
I have a ton of respect for Izzo, but this feels like the end of the road for Michigan State. The Spartans have been too inconsistent all season. I don’t think they’re good enough offensively to upset North Carolina, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are the more talented team, so I expect them to take care of business and advance to the next round.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Alabama — Spokane, Wash.
Grand Canyon might be good enough to upset Saint Mary’s, but I doubt that it can knock off Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best offensive teams in the tournament. The Antelopes aren’t a great defensive team — ranking No. 51 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 106 in 3-point defense. I like Alabama to get to the Sweet 16 for a second-consecutive year.
Winner: Alabama
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 3 Baylor — Memphis, Tenn.
New Mexico is a good defensive team, but it’ll have a difficult time defending Baylor’s offense. The Bears rank in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting. They’re also a very physical team and do a good job of getting offensive rebounds. That’ll likely be a significant disadvantage for the Lobos. New Mexico ranks No. 153 in offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Winner: Baylor
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 2 Arizona — Salt Lake City
I don’t think Nevada is good enough on the glass to upset Arizona. The Wildcats average 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Wolf Pack rank No. 106 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. I don’t think that matchup bodes well for Nevada because Arizona is an elite offensive team. If the Wildcats get second-chance opportunities, I don’t see how they lose this game.
Winner: Arizona
Marquette Golden Eagles head coach Shaka Smart talks to guard Stevie Mitchell (4) as he coaches against the Providence Friars during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This is a dangerous matchup for Houston. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Aggies also played the Cougars very tough back in December. I think that’ll be in the back of Kelvin Sampson’s mind, though. Houston is an excellent defensive team — allowing just 57 points per game. I think Texas A&M will have a difficult time making shots.
Winner: Houston
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Duke — Brooklyn, N.Y.
I didn’t like the way that Duke ended the regular season. The Blue Devils lost their last two games, including a pretty embarrassing loss to North Carolina on their own home court. This is a much different Wisconsin team than we’ve seen since the Bo Ryan era. The Badgers rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot nearly 35% from 3-point territory.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kentucky — Pittsburgh
Since 2008, only seven teams ranked outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency made it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t bode well for Kentucky, which allows 79.7 points per game and 12 offensive rebounds per game. I think Texas Tech is good enough defensively to slow down the Wildcats’ offense. I also don’t have much trust in John Calipari, who hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2019.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 2 Marquette — Indianapolis
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Florida. Marquette ranks in the bottom half of the country in 3-point defense and offensive rebounds allowed per game. The Gators are so good offensively. They’ll make the Golden Eagles pay if given second-chance opportunities. Lastly, I don’t trust Shaka Smart in the tournament. He hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 2011.
Winner: Florida
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Purdue — Indianapolis
This could be a problematic matchup for Purdue. TCU wants to speed the game up, whereas Purdue wants to slow the game down. Press defense gave the Boilermakers trouble last year, but they’ve done a better job taking care of the ball this year. Purdue is more experienced in the backcourt this year than it was last year, too. I also don’t have much trust in Jamie Dixon in the tournament.
Winner: Purdue
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas — Salt Lake City
If Kansas was healthy, I’d probably pick the Jayhawks to win this game. I don’t know how effective Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson will be, even though they’re expected to be available. I’ll give the advantage to Gonzaga. Few has made it to the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournament appearances. Him and the Bulldogs are a safe bet in the first two rounds.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton — Pittsburgh
Creighton should win this game and advance to the next round. Oregon has been too inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Ducks rank No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 240 in 3-point defense. The Bluejays are one of the top offensive teams in the tournament — averaging 80.5 points per game. I expect Creighton will take advantage of that mismatch.
Winner: Creighton
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee — Charlotte, N.C.
I’m not looking too much into the way Tennessee performed in the SEC tournament. KenPom has the Volunteers ranked in the top 10, and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think it’ll be difficult for Texas to make shots against in this matchup. The Longhorns have been too inconsistent on the defensive end of the court. I like the Volunteers to advance.
Winner: Tennessee
Sweet 16
Illinois Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (0) dunks against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional semifinals — Boston
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 UConn
If Auburn was in the West or Midwest regionals, I’d pick it to get to the Final Four. If any team can knock off UConn before the Elite Eight, I think it’s the Tigers. They match up very well with the Huskies. The problem is that UConn is really good, especially offensively. This will essentially be a home game for UConn, too. With almost a week to prepare, I give the advantage to Dan Hurley.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Since 2000, Iowa State has won the Big 12 tournament five times and advanced to the Elite Eight just once after doing so. The Cyclones typically get up for the Big 12 tournament, but not the big dance. That’s part of the reason why I like Illinois in this matchup. I also think the Fighting Illini’s offense, which averages 84.4 points per game, poses a lot of problems for Iowa State’s defense.
Winner: Illinois
Baylor Bears forward Jalen Bridges (11) reacts after a made basket with guard Ja’Kobe Walter (4) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional semifinals — Los Angeles
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
As always, my biggest concern with Alabama is its defense. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament — ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing 81.1 points per game. That’s not good enough. North Carolina is one of the top defensive teams in the country and I think it’ll be able to slow down Alabama’s offense.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 2 Arizona
I’ve been burned by Arizona too many times over the years. At this point, I need to see the Wildcats make a deep tournament run before I predict them to do so. I think Baylor poses trouble for Arizona. The Bears are a very good offensive team and won’t be afraid of Arizona’s size. With almost a week to prepare, I’ll give the advantage to the better head coach in Scott Drew.
Winner: Baylor
Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland reacts during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional semifinals — Dallas
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Houston
Wisconsin is a great offensive team, but scoring points on Houston’s defense will be a tall order. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, 3-point defense, and turnovers forced. Houston will also have a significant talent advantage. A lot of things will have to break the Badgers’ way in order to pull off the upset.
Winner: Houston
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
I think this matchup favors Texas Tech. Florida’s porous defense, which ranks No. 83 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows 78.5 points per game, will likely prevent it from getting past the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are solid offensive team and should be able to make shots against the Gators. I also think Grant McCasland is an ascending head coach, which benefits Texas Tech.
Winner: Texas Tech
Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few looks on against the Santa Clara Broncos in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional semifinals — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
This might be the weakest Gonzaga team that we’ve seen in recent years, but I’ll still take the upset. The Bulldogs have the coaching advantage with Few, who’ll have almost a week to prepare for this game. I also don’t trust Matt Painter and Purdue. The Boilermakers have made it to the Elite Eight just once in the previous 14 tournament appearances under Painter.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Death, taxes, and Rick Barnes not getting past the Sweet 16. I just don’t trust Tennessee to make a deep tournament run, even though it’s an excellent defensive team. Creighton shoots the ball well, takes care of the ball, and should get second-chance opportunities against Tennessee. I think the Bluejays get back to the Elite 8 for a second-consecutive season.
Winner: Creighton
Elite Eight
Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley coaches against the Xavier Musketeers during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
East Regional final — Boston
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 1 UConn
I think this is a very favorable matchup for UConn. Illinois has struggled on the defensive end of the court — ranking No. 93 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 236 in 3-point defense. I doubt that’ll be good enough to knock off the Huskies, who might be the best offensive team in the tournament. The Fighting Illini will have a very difficult time defending UConn.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
West Regional final — Los Angeles
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Baylor’s inconsistent defense will likely be its downfall in the tournament. The Bears rank No. 64 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 189 in 3-point defense. North Carolina shoots the ball well and is just as aggressive as Baylor on the glass (maybe more so). The Tar Heels are also an elite defensive team. I don’t think they’re getting enough credit from the pundits.
Winner: North Carolina
Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
South Regional final — Dallas
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Houston
These teams played twice in the regular season and Houston won both meetings by a combined 46 points. I expect the Cougars to win a third meeting. I don’t think Texas Tech has the horses to keep up with Houston. The Cougars might be the most athletic team in the tournament. They also have an experienced backcourt, which they didn’t have last year.
Winner: Houston
Creighton Bluejays guard Baylor Scheierman (55) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Jordan Longino (15) in the first half at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Midwest Regional final — Detroit
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Creighton
I’m not crazy about any of the higher seeds in this regional, but one of them is likely going to win it. I’m not confident in it, but I’ll pick Creighton. I think the Bluejays have the least amount of baggage and they showed last year they can make a deep tournament run. Gonzaga’s defense, which has been good but not great, will have a difficult time slowing down Creighton’s offense.
Winner: Creighton
Final Four — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn
North Carolina is certainly capable of knocking off UConn. The Tar Heels are good enough defensively to contain the Huskies’ offense — holding opponents to shoot just 40.7% from the field and limiting second-chance opportunities. I’m not sure North Carolina is consistent enough offensively, though. I also think UConn has the more complete team and a better head coach.
Winner: UConn
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 1 Houston
I expect Creighton’s run to come to an end in this game. The Bluejays will have a difficult time scoring against Houston’s defense, which holds its opponents to shoot just 37.9% from the field. I don’t know where Creighton’s points will come from if it can’t make shots because it’s not a great offensive rebounding team. I like the Cougars to advance to the national championship.
Winner: Houston
The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Trophy. Mandatory credit: Getty Images.
National Championship — Glendale, Ariz.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 UConn
These just feel like the most complete teams in the tournament. They’re both athletic, talented, and well coached. My readers know how much I hate picking defending champions, but I think UConn is a wagon. The Huskies have won 21 of their last 22 games and have shown no sign of slowing down. That’s why I think UConn is the most likely team to defend its title since Florida in 2007.
I also think the Huskies can be effective offensively on Houston’s stout defense. UConn had six different players lead the team in scoring in a game in the regular season, including five different players to score at least 20 points in a game. That typically bodes well in the tournament. The Huskies are also aggressive on the boards and play great defense. I think they cut down the nets again.
“There’s nothing new in human experience, Mr. Tully. Each generation thinks it invented debauchery or suffering or rebellion, but man’s every impulse and appetite from the disgusting to the sublime is on display right here all around you. So, before you dismiss something as boring or irrelevant, remember, if you truly want to understand the present or yourself, you must begin in the past. You see, history is not simply the study of the past. It is an explanation of the present.”
— Paul Hunham, “The Holdovers” (2023)
Washington Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer looks on against the Michigan Wolverines during the second quarter in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
This has easily been the craziest coaching carousel that I’ve ever witnessed, at both the collegiate and professional levels. I originally planned to publish this post closer to New Year’s Day and the main point that I was going to make was how this phase of conference realignment impacted this coaching carousel. Specifically, with Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, who’s also an alumnus of the school, leaving for the Michigan State vacancy. While that’s still a relevant takeaway, the bigger news was Nick Saban’s unexpected retirement.
Saban’s decision to retire shook up the college football landscape, which caused a ripple effect that created several new vacancies across the country. Then you had the ongoing question of whether or not Jim Harbaugh would return to the NFL. Those are the main reasons why this post is coming so much later than it has in the past. Now that Harbaugh is officially back in the NFL and Michigan has replaced him, I feel confident in (finally) publishing this post. I don’t see any reason to expect new vacancies.
This coaching carousel wasn’t only loaded with movement, but I think several schools hired quality coaches. That’s something we didn’t get last year. I’m curious to see how these coaches fare at their new schools these next few years
Washington Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer runs onto the field for the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports
Alabama Crimson Tide Out: Nick Saban In: Kalen DeBoer
I don’t know if DeBoer will be a good cultural fit at Alabama. He’s primarily coached in the Midwest and along the West Coast. However, DeBoer’s track record is outstanding. He has an overall record of 104-12 (yes, you’re reading that right) and just took Washington to the national championship. DeBoer’s offenses also haven’t ranked lower than No. 42 in scoring since 2018. It’ll be difficult to follow Saban, but I can see him having success.
Grade: A-
San Jose State Spartans head coach Brent Brennan reacts against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
This might be my least favorite hire of this coaching carousel. Arizona was heading into the 2024 with a lot of momentum after returning a lot of production from a team that won 10 games, along with the move to the Big 12 in July. Losing Fisch to Washington definitely hurts, but I don’t know if hiring Brennan to replace him is the right move. He’d been at San Jose State for seven years and his best season was during the shortened 2020 season.
Grade: C
Boise State Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson gestures in the second half against the UNLV Rebels during the Mountain West Championship at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Boise State Broncos Out: Andy Avalos In: Spencer Danielson
The job that Danielson did at Boise State this past season can’t be understated. The Broncos fired Andy Avalos after 10 games and Danielson led them to a fifth Mountain West championship as the interim head coach. Danielson has been at Boise State since 2017 — the last three seasons as defensive coordinator — and helped assemble some pretty good defenses. He also has roots on the West Coast, which will help with recruiting.
Grade: B
New England Patriots offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien directs the office on a drill during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Boston College Eagles Out: Jeff Hafley In: Bill O’Brien
I realize that I’m in the minority, but I think O’Brien is a good coach. He was a successful head coach in the NFL. His downfall was when he also became the general manager in Houston. Don’t forget that he also had a winning record two seasons as Penn State’s head coach, when the program was coming off the Jerry Sandusky scandal and going through a tumultuous time. O’Brien is from the Boston area, too. I think this a great hire by Boston College.
Grade: B
Penn State Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Manny Diaz walks on the field during the fourth quarter of the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Duke Blue Devils Out: Mike Elko In: Manny Diaz
I understand that Duke isn’t exactly the most attractive football job in the ACC, but this hire leaves a lot to be desired. Diaz doesn’t have a good track record as a head coach. He spent three seasons as the man in charge in Miami between 2019-21, where he posted a record of 21-15. Being from South Florida, I’m also not sure that he’s a good cultural fit for the Blue Devils. Diaz is a respected recruiter and defensive mind, though.
Grade: C+
Tulane Green Wave head coach Willie Fritz reacts to a pass interference call on Tulane Green Wave against the Southern Methodist Mustangs during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Cougars Out: Dana Holgorsen In: Willie Fritz
Fritz is exactly the type of coach that Houston needs now that it’s made the jump to the Power 5. He has plenty of experience building competitive programs at different levels of college football. Fritz managed to win at least nine games in a season at both Tulane and Georgia Southern, and won two FCS national championships at Sam Houston State. He also has coaching roots in Texas, so that should be beneficial at Houston when it comes to recruiting.
Grade: A-
Holy Cross football coach Bob Chesney talks to the team after a spring game. Mandatory credit: Worcester Telegram
James Madison Out: Curt Cignetti In: Bob Chesney
This is a very outside-the-box hire by James Madison. Chesney isn’t even 50 years old yet and has plenty of experience as a head coach. He made the FCS playoffs in four of his six seasons at Holy Cross, and even had success at Assumption and Salve Regina. Chesney has also spent the majority of his coaching career in the Mid-Atlantic and along the East Coast, so he should be familiar with the area in order to bring some talented recruits to the Dukes.
Grade: B+
James Madison Dukes head coach Curt Cignetti walks the sideline during a game against the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
Indiana Hoosiers Out: Tom Allen In: Curt Cignetti
Considering that Indiana has had just three winning seasons since 2000, I’m not sure it could’ve asked for a better hire than Cignetti. He did an incredible job at James Madison. He won an FCS national championship in 2019, and then won 19 games each of the last two seasons when the program made the jump to the FBS level. Cignetti also had success as a head coach at both IUP and Elon. We’ll see if he can be competitive in a loaded Big Ten East division.
Grade: A-
Michigan Wolverines interim head coach Sherrone Moore talks on the sideline during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan Wolverines Out: Jim Harbaugh In: Sherrone Moore
I don’t blame Michigan for promoting internally. It’s awfully late in the coaching carousel to find a quality candidate and the school’s reported first choice was DeBoer, who was already off the board. Moore has done a great job as Michigan’s offensive line coach. He was also impressive this past season when Harbaugh was suspended and he had to fill in as the interim head coach. I think Moore is deserving of the opportunity.
Grade: B
Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan State Spartans Out: Mel Tucker In: Jonathan Smith
Like DeBoer, I don’t know if Smith will be a cultural fit at Michigan State. He’s from California and has never had a coaching job east of Montana. Smith’s track record is excellent, though. He worked under Chris Petersen before becoming the head coach at Oregon State, where he resurrected a program that had won just 12 games between 2014-17. Smith knows how to develop talent, which should go a long way to making the Spartans competitive again.
Grade: A-
Oklahoma Sooners offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby before the game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Mississippi State Bulldogs Out: Zach Arnett In: Jeff Lebby
I was underwhelmed with Mississippi State’s decision to hire Lebby. He’s had success as an offensive coordinator, but there was tension between him and the Oklahoma fanbase. Lebby’s tenure with the Sooners ended poorly because of that. With the Bulldogs being an attractive SEC job, I just have a hard time believing Lebby was the best they could do. Hiring Lebby could set them back with the conference adding Oklahoma and Texas in 2024.
Grade: C
Texas co-defensive coordinator Jeff Choate (right) speaks with linebacker David Gbenda (33) during an open practice session for fans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Wednesday, Aug., 18, 2021. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY NETWORK
Nevada Wolf Pack Out: Ken Wilson In: Jeff Choate
I actually think hiring Choate was a good decision by Nevada. He grew up in Idaho and played college ball in Montana. Choate has spent a good chunk of his career coaching at western schools. He feels like a very good cultural fit for Nevada, and he should be familiar with the recruiting area. Choate also had success as a head coach at Montana State between 2016-19, where he posted a record of 19-9 in his last two seasons.
Grade: B+
Virginia Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall looks on from the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
New Mexico Lobos Out: Danny Gonzales In: Bronco Mendenhall
Hiring Mendenhall could be the biggest steal of this coaching carousel. Mendenhall has been a successful head coach at both BYU and Virginia. He’s from Utah and spent a lot of time coaching at western schools, including five seasons at New Mexico. Mendenhall ought to know the recruiting area well enough to revive a Lobos program that has posted a record of 47-119 since 2008. My only concern is that he hasn’t been a head coach since 2021.
Grade: B+
Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun celebrates a touchdown against the Maryland Terrapins during the first half at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Northwestern Wildcats Out: Pat Fitzgerald In: David Braun
I was very impressed with what Braun was able to do at Northwestern this past season. The Wildcats haven’t been competitive recently — posting a record of 14-31 since 2019 — and were in a terrible spot as a program entering this season. Nobody, myself included, expected Northwestern to be competitive and Braun managed to win eight games as the interim head coach. Being from Wisconsin, I also think he’s a great cultural fit for Northwestern.
Grade: B
Oregon State interim defensive coordinator Trent Bray looks on during the Oregon State spring football game at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon State Beavers Out: Jonathan Smith In: Trent Bray
It’s a shame that conference realignment all but forced Smith to leave Oregon State for Michigan State. However, I’m not sure that the Beavers could’ve hired a better replacement for Smith. Bray had been on Smith’s staff since 2018, spending the last two seasons as defensive coordinator. Bray will be able to bring continuity to a program that’s had some success in recent years. He’s also an Oregon State alumnus, so he’ll be a great cultural fit.
Grade: B+
Kent State Golden Flashes head coach Sean Lewis reacts following a penalty in favor of the Washington Huskies during the second quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego State Aztecs Out: Brady Hoke In: Sean Lewis
I’m not as high on Lewis as other people. I wasn’t impressed with him as a head coach during his time at Kent State, where he posted a record of just 24-31 in five seasons. He wasn’t even impressive as Colorado’s offensive coordinator this past season — averaging just 28.2 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Considering Lewis is from the Midwest, I also don’t think he’s a very good cultural fit for San Diego State.
Grade: C+
New Syracuse Orange head coach Fran Brown speaks during a press conference at the John A. Lally Athletics Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Syracuse Orange Out: Dino Babers In: Fran Brown
This is an interesting decision by Syracuse. Brown has been a position coach for the majority of his career, and he spent only one season as a defensive coordinator in 2019. Going from being a position coach to a head coach is quite the jump for a young coach like Brown. The good news is that he’s from New Jersey and has deep ties to the recruiting area, which will be beneficial to the Orange. I’m just not sure Brown is ready to be a head coach.
Grade: C+
Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Elko leads his team out prior to the first quarter against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Texas A&M Aggies Out: Jimbo Fisher In: Mike Elko
Texas A&M wanted to make a big splash and I think it made one by hiring Elko. As a coordinator, he worked for quality head coaches like Dave Clawson, Brian Kelly, and Jimbo Fisher before becoming the head coach at Duke, where he won 16 games in two seasons. If Elko’s starting quarterback hadn’t gotten hurt this past season, he might’ve won 10 games. The Aggies have deep NIL pockets, so I expect Elko to continue to lure high-profile recruits.
Grade: B+
Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive coordinator Gerad Parker talks to players during warmups before the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Troy Trojans Out: Jon Sumrall In: Gerad Parker
Hiring from the same coaching tree has benefitted Troy in recent years (Neal Brown and Jon Sumrall). I’m not convinced that Parker is ready to be a head coach, though. His track record as an offensive coordinator has been mixed during his tenures at both West Virginia and Notre Dame. With Parker being from the south, he should be a good cultural fit with the Trojans. He also has a good reputation as a recruiter.
Grade: C+
Troy Trojans head coach Jon Sumrall (middle) runs on the field before the game against the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Tulane Green Wave Out: Willie Fritz In: Jon Sumrall
Sumrall has struck me as a rising coach for the last few years. He’s spent a lot of time as an assistant in the SEC at both Kentucky and Ole Miss. Sumrall was also impressive as Troy’s head coach the last two seasons — posting a record of 23-4. He’s from the south and coached primarily in the south, including at Tulane between 2012-14, so I expect him to be a great cultural fit. I’m very surprised that Power 5 programs didn’t give him a look this coaching carousel.
Grade: A-
DeShaun Foster answers questions from media after he was introduced as the new head football coach of UCLA Bruins during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
UCLA Bruins Out: Chip Kelly In: DeShaun Foster
It’s clear why Chip Kelly was trying to leave UCLA. It seems like he put minimal effort in recruiting and on-field preparation, which caused his relationship with the administration to deteriorate. I understand why the Bruins hired Foster, who’s an alumnus of the school. Foster should be a great cultural fit at UCLA and will actually care about the program. My issue is that he’s only been a position coach, so I’m not sure he’s ready to be a head coach.
Grade: C+
Arizona Wildcats head coach Jedd Fisch on the sideline during the second half at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Huskies Out: Kalen DeBoer In: Jedd Fisch
Fisch worked primarily in the NFL and the East Coast before arriving at Arizona, so I wasn’t convinced he’d have much success there. Fisch did an incredible job with the Wildcats, though. He inherited a program that had just one winning season between 2016-20 and turned things around just three seasons — winning 10 games in 2023 and making an impact in recruiting. I think hiring Fisch is a great decision by Washington.
“I like the smell of my hair treatment; the pleasing odor is half the point.”
— Ulysses Everett McGill, “O Brother, Where Art Thou?” (2000)
New Year’s Six bowls record: 2-4 (33.3%) 2023 record: 119-53 (69.1%) All-time record: 1,055-514 (67.2%)
College Football Playoff National Championship No. 2 Washington (14-0) vs. No. 1 Michigan (14-0) NRG Stadium Houston Line: Michigan -4.5 Over/under: 56.5
I highly doubt that anyone had these teams playing in the national championship in the preseason. I know I didn’t. This is the first time that an SEC team isn’t in the national championship since 2014, and this matchup is between future Big Ten opponents. There’s some compelling storylines in this game, too. Jim Harbaugh, who’s one of the top head coaches in the game, can add to his legacy by winning his first championship. On the other side, Washington can win the national championship for the Pac-12 before the conference essentially dissolves later this year. We’re guaranteed a great story no matter which team wins this game.
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (right) celebrates with teammates hoisting the Sugar Bowl Trophy after their game against the Texas Longhorns in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Washington has had an almost improbable season. Not because no one expected the Huskies to be any good, but because they’ve won eight games by a combined 39 points. I’ve picked against this team several times this season only to be proven wrong each time. I’m almost under the impression that Washington is a “team of destiny.” The Huskies now have a chance to win their first national championship since 1991, and third in program history.
The strength of this team is its offense. Washington has an excellent passing attack, led by future first-round picks in Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze. Penix arguably should’ve won the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 4,648 yards and 35 touchdowns, and Odunze compiled 1,553 yards and 13 touchdowns. Those players are the reason why Washington’s offense was one of the best in the country — averaging 37.6 points per game and 7.2 yards per play. Don’t overlook the Huskies’ rushing attack, especially if Dillon Johnson plays this game. Washington has run the ball effectively when needed. Michigan’s defense will have a difficult time defending this offense.
My concern with the Huskies is their defense. They’ve allowed 25.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play against Power 5 competition. Is that because Washington’s offense has been so good that the bulk of those numbers have come in garbage time while the defense is playing soft? I doubt it. My main area of concern is that the Huskies have struggled to defend the run — allowing 134.4 yards per game (4.3 yards per carry). I don’t think that’ll bode well against the Wolverines. I firmly believe that Harbaugh and his staff are content to run the ball every play (like we saw against Penn State) if it’s working, unlike what Steve Sarkisian and Texas did in the Sugar Bowl.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh (center) celebrates with quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) and running back Blake Corum (2) after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan has arguably faced more adversity this season than any other team in the CFP era. Drama has surrounded the program on and off the field dating back to the summer. Harbaugh has been suspended for three games two different times this season — the first suspension for recruiting violations and the second for the sign-stealing scandal. The Wolverines rallied and won every game to this point anyway. That’s a sign of great team leadership.
I think Michigan has made it to this game because of its defense. The Wolverines have been excellent on that side of the ball — allowing just 11.5 points per game, 4.3 yards per play, and 96.2 rushing yards per game (3.1 yards per carry) against Power 5 competition. Some of that might be inflated because there weren’t many great offenses in the Big Ten. However, if Washington can’t run the ball effectively and must throw the ball, I actually think that benefits Michigan. The Wolverines rank in the top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed per game, passing efficiency, and sacks. I expect the Huskies to make some plays through the air, but opportunities will be limited in this matchup.
If I have to pick a weakness on Michigan’s team, I have to say its offense. The Wolverines aren’t exactly dynamic on that side of the ball. Michigan likes to lean on its run game, which averages 159.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. The Wolverines might run the ball on almost every play in order to keep the clock ticking and limit possessions for Washington’s offense. The best chance for the Huskies to win this game is to slow down Michigan’s run game. If both teams have to throw the ball in order to move the ball, I don’t have as much trust in J.J. McCarthy to outperform Penix. The Wolverines also don’t have as many great pass catchers as Washington.
A general view of NRG stadium ahead of the College Football Playoff national championship game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Washington Huskies. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The matchup between Michigan’s offense and the Huskies’ defense will likely decide this game. Given how Washington’s defense has struggled to defend the run, I can’t help but think that the Wolverines will try to run the ball effectively. That’s the best way to limit possessions for Penix and the Huskies’ offense. Washington has a talented defensive front, but it specializes in rushing the passer. In fact, the Huskies rank No. 116 in the country in tackles for loss. That won’t be good enough to slow down Michigan’s run game. I expect Harbaugh and his staff to turn this matchup into a street fight (similar to the way the Wolverines handled the Penn State game back in early November).
It shouldn’t be overlooked how well Michigan’s defense has defended the pass, too. The Wolverines jumped out to big leads several times, which forced opposing teams to throw the ball, and they still defended the pass extremely well. I’m not convinced that Penix and Washington’s offense will be as effective through the air in this matchup. I’m also a firm believer that football games are decided in the trenches and I think the Wolverines have the advantage in that area. Lastly, it feels like this is Harbaugh’s year. The Wolverines have fought so hard for him this season and I don’t them not showing up for this game. I think Michigan wins its first national championship since 1997.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates a first down in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic No. 9 Missouri (10-2) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (11-1) AT&T Stadium Arlington, Texas Line: Ohio State -3.5 Over/under: 48.5
It’s very telling that the line of this game continues to shift in Ohio State’s favor. The Buckeyes have key players expected to play like Emeka Egbuka and Denzel Burke, and possibly even Marvin Harrison Jr. I also doubt Missouri is good enough defensively to win. The Tigers have allowed 23.5 points per game, 5.7 yards per play, and 144.7 rushing yards per game against Power 5 competition.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Missouri 21
Saturday:
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) hands off the ball to running back Kaytron Allen (13) during the first half against Michigan State at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl No. 11 Ole Miss (10-2) vs. No. 10 Penn State (10-2) Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta Line: Penn State -3.5 Over/under: 48.5
I don’t think this is a favorable matchup for Ole Miss. The Rebels have struggled defensively against Power 5 competition — allowing 26.4 points per game and 158.5 rushing yards per game (4.1 yards per carry). Penn State has an excellent rushing attack, which averages 186.7 yards per game (4.6 yards per carry). I expect the Nittany Lions to run the ball effectively and keep Ole Miss’ offense off the field.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Ole Miss 24
Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) celebrates scoring a touchdown with offensive lineman Earnest Greene III (71) in the first quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Capital One Orange Bowl No. 6 Georgia (12-1) vs. No. 5 Florida State (13-0) Hard Rock Stadium Miami Line: Georgia -16.5 Over/under: 43.5
I don’t know what to expect from Florida State after getting left out of the College Football Playoff. I doubt the Seminoles win this game, though. They played poorly offensively after the injury to Jordan Travis — averaging just 20 points per game, 3.6 yards per play, and 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. Georgia is the much better team right now and I expect it to win this game comfortably.
Prediction: Georgia 34, Florida State 17
Monday:
Oregon Ducks tight end Terrance Ferguson (3) celebrates with team mates after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl No. 23 Liberty (13-0) vs. No. 8 Oregon (11-2) State Farm Stadium Glendale, Ariz. Line: Oregon -17.5 Over/under: 66.5
I don’t know if Liberty is that good of a team. The Flames have one of the worst strength of schedules in the country. I’m also not convinced that they’re good enough defensively to win this game — allowing 27.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play in their last seven games. That won’t bode well against Oregon’s offense, which averages 44.2 points per game and 7.5 yards per play. Bo Nix is expected to play, too.
Prediction: Oregon 45, Liberty 24
Michigan Wolverines defensive back DJ Waller Jr. (13) and defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) celebrate after a turnover during the second half of the Big Ten Championship game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game No. 4 Alabama (12-1) vs. No. 1 Michigan (13-0) Rose Bowl Pasadena, Calif. Line: Michigan -1.5 Over/under: 44.5
Michigan hasn’t given me a reason to trust it to win this game. The Wolverines have fallen short in the Playoff the last two years. With a spot in the national championship on the line, I give the advantage to Nick Saban. Alabama ended the season on a strong note — averaging 33.8 points per game, 6.8 yards per play, and 178 rushing yards per game in its last six games against Power 5 competition.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Michigan 20
Texas Longhorns linebacker Morice Blackwell Jr. (37) celebrates with teammates during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl No. 3 Texas (12-1) vs. No. 2 Washington (13-0) Caesars Superdome New Orleans Line: Texas -4.5 Over/under: 62.5
I’ve picked against Washington many times and have been proven wrong each time, but I think its luck will run out. Texas holds a few advantages in this matchup. The Huskies’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Longhorns’ defense is excellent against the run — allowing just 80.8 yards per game. Michael Penix Jr. will make plays through the air, but I doubt it’ll be enough to will Washington to victory.
Michigan Wolverines defensive back DJ Waller Jr. (13) and defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) celebrate after a turnover during the second half of the Big Ten Championship game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
1. Michigan Wolverines (13-0) Week 14 result: W, 26-0 vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship) Previous: 1
I’ll be very surprised if Michigan doesn’t end up with the No. 1 seed in the Playoff. The Wolverines have been dominant all season, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. This team has a real chance to win it all.
Washington Huskies running back Dillon Johnson (7) celebrates with Washington Huskies offensive lineman Roger Rosengarten (73) and Washington Huskies tight end Devin Culp (83) after scoring a touchdown against the Oregon Ducks during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
2. Washington Huskies (13-0) Week 14 result: W, 34-31 vs. Oregon (Pac-12 Championship) Previous: 3 (+1)
I’ve kept doubting Washington the last few weeks and it kept proving me wrong. I think the Huskies play down to their competition, but that shouldn’t be a problem now that they’ve all but secured a spot in the Playoff.
Texas Longhorns linebacker Morice Blackwell Jr. (37) celebrates with teammates during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
3. Texas Longhorns (12-1) Week 14 result: W, 49-21 vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Championship) Previous: 6 (+3)
We’ve mocked Texas for over a decade, but it proved a lot of people wrong this season. The Longhorns are playing well now that Quinn Ewers is back under center. We’ll see if it’ll be enough for this team to make the Playoff.
Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Isaiah Bond (17) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs during the second half in the SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Nick Saban has done a tremendous coaching job with this Alabama team. This definitely isn’t his most talented team, but it finds itself on the doorstep of making the Playoff. I’d put the Crimson Tide in if I was on the committee.
Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) celebrates scoring a touchdown with offensive lineman Earnest Greene III (71) in the first quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
As crazy as it sounds, with Georgia’s loss, I’m not 100% convinced that the SEC will get a team in the Playoff. This Bulldogs team just wasn’t up to par with what we’ve seen from the program each of the past two years.
Oregon Ducks tight end Terrance Ferguson (3) celebrates with team mates after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
6. Oregon Ducks (11-2) Week 14 result: L, 31-34 vs. Washington (Pac-12 Championship) Previous: 4 (-2)
I still think Oregon is one of the best teams in the country. The Ducks do a lot of things well on both sides of the ball. They just came up short twice against a great Washington team. This team is deserving of a New Year’s Six bowl game.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates a first down in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
These last two weeks couldn’t have gone worse for Ohio State. After the results of this past week, I doubt the committee will give one of the last playoff spots to the Buckeyes. They might want to prepare for disappointment.
Mississippi Rebels defensive back Zamari Walton (6) reacts after a missed field goal by the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
8. Ole Miss Rebels (10-2) Week 14 result: N/A Previous: 8
Ole Miss is in a really good spot to make a New Year’s Six bowl game for the fourth time since 2014. It also seems like the Rebels held off other schools from poaching Lane Kiffin. That might be the best news for them.
LSU Tigers wide receiver Kyren Lacy (2) points to quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) after scoring a touchdown against the Texas A&M Aggies during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
I doubt the committee will put LSU in a New Year’s Six bowl game. The thing going for the Tigers is that Jayden Daniels might be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. I don’t think any player finished stronger than him.
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) hands off the ball to running back Kaytron Allen (13) during the first half against Michigan State at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) Week 14 result: N/A Previous: 10
Since Penn State lost to only Michigan and Ohio State, it’ll likely find a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Nittany Lions are deserving, though. They’ve soundly defeated almost every other team on their schedule.
Liberty Flames defensive back Brandon Bishop (6) intercepts the ball from the UTEP Miners offense during the first half at Sun Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports
Conference USA Championship New Mexico State (10-3) at No. 24 Liberty (12-0) Williams Stadium Lynchburg, Va. Line: Liberty -10.5 Over/under: 56.5
New Mexico State has been playing much better in recent weeks and Jerry Kill is an underrated head coach. I doubt it can keep up with Liberty, though. The Flames have one of the better offenses in the country – averaging 40.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play, and 295.4 rushing yards per game. Liberty has a chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl game, so I expect it to show up this week.
Prediction: Liberty 38, New Mexico State 24
Saturday:
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Big 12 Championship No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. No. 7 Texas (11-1) AT&T Stadium Arlington, Texas Line: Texas -14.5 Over/under: 54.5
This is going to be a difficult matchup for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys lean heavily on Ollie Gordon and their run game. The strength of Texas’ defense is its front seven, though. The Longhorns have allowed just 85 rushing yards per game (2.9 yards per carry). If Gordon can’t get going, I highly doubt Alan Bowman can lead Oklahoma State to victory with his arm.
Prediction: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 20
Toledo Rockets head coach Jason Candle directs his players during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
MAC Championship Miami (Ohio) (10-2) vs. Toledo (11-1) Ford Field Detroit Line: Toledo -7.5 Over/under: 43.5
I’m surprised that Toledo is such a heavy favorite to win this game. Miami (Ohio) has a great defense – allowing just 16.3 points per game – and it played the Rockets tough in the regular season. I doubt the RedHawks’ offense, which averaged just 23.7 points per game in conference play, can outscore Toledo’s offense. I think Miami (Ohio) keeps it close, but the Rockets should get the win.
Prediction: Toledo 24, Miami (Ohio) 20
Boise State Broncos cornerback Kaonohi Kaniho (14) and Boise State Broncos safety Rodney Robinson (4) celebrate during the second half against the Air Force Falcons at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
Mountain West Championship Boise State (7-5) at UNLV (9-3) Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas Line: Boise State -2.5 Over/under: 58.5
I don’t think UNLV is getting enough credit heading into this game. The Rebels have a very good offense, which averages 34.7 points per game, 6.1 yards per play, and 187.8 rushing yards per game, and ranks in the top 20 in turnover margin. I also think UNLV’s defense can contain Boise State’s run game. If the Broncos have to rely on Taylen Green to make plays with his arm, I doubt they can win.
Prediction: UNLV 31, Boise State 28
Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart reacts on the sideline in the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
SEC Championship No. 1 Georgia (12-0) vs. No. 8 Alabama (11-1) Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta Line: Georgia -6.5 Over/under: 54.5
I actually think this is a favorable matchup for Alabama. Georgia’s defense has been vulnerable against the run – allowing a minimum of 130 yards on the ground five times in its last eight games. The Crimson Tide’s run game has averaged 179.5 yards per game (4.4 yards per carry) in its last nine games. I think Alabama will be able to run the ball effectively and keep Georgia’s offense off the field.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Georgia 24
Tulane Green Wave safety Kam Pedescleaux (8) celebrates forcing a fumble against the UTSA Roadrunners during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
American Athletic Conference Championship SMU (10-2) at No. 22 Tulane (11-1) Yulman Stadium New Orleans Line: Tulane -3.5 Over/under: 47.5
I really like the way SMU has been playing the last few weeks, which is why I’m picking the upset. The Mustangs have won their last eight games by a combined score of 367-136. Tulane’s offense has struggled in its last four games – averaging just 22.8 points per game. The Green Wave’s defense might be able to contain SMU’s offense, but I doubt they can score enough points to win.
Prediction: SMU 28, Tulane 20
Troy Trojans wide receiver Jabre Barber (1) runs after a catch against the Army Black Knights during the first half at Michie Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
Sun Belt Championship Appalachian State (8-4) at Troy (10-2) Veterans Memorial Stadium Troy, Ala. Line: Troy -5.5 Over/under: 52.5
I don’t like picking against Appalachian State in big games like this one, but I think Troy is the more complete team. The Trojans have a balanced offense and the best scoring defense in the Sun Belt, which allows just 16.7 points per game. I also think Troy will be able to move the ball effectively on Appalachian State’s defense, which is allowing 27.8 points per game in road games.
Prediction: Troy 31, Appalachian State 24
Florida State Seminoles running back Trey Benson (3) rushes with the ball during the first half against the Florida Gators at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 25, 2023. Mandatory credit: Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun
ACC Championship No. 14 Louisville (10-2) vs. No. 4 Florida State (12-0) Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, N.C. Line: Florida State -2.5 Over/under: 47.5
I remain unconvinced that Florida State is one of the best teams in the country without Jordan Travis. The Seminoles don’t look the same without him. Louisville has one of the better offenses in the country – averaging 33 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. I don’t think Florida State can score enough points without Travis. The Cardinals should win this game if they take care of the ball.
Prediction: Louisville 27, Florida State 20
Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Big Ten Championship No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 16 Iowa (10-2) Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis Line: Michigan -21.5 Over/under: 34.5
A lot will have to go right for Iowa in order for it to win this game. The Hawkeyes have one of the worst offenses in the country – averaging just 18 points per game and 4.0 yards per play. Iowa will likely have to force a lot of turnovers and score on those turnovers in order to pull off the upset. I don’t see that happening. With a spot in the Playoff on the line, I expect Michigan to be ready to play.
Prediction: Michigan 28, Iowa 7
Friday/Game of the week:
Oregon Ducks wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) celebrates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Pac-12 Championship (RIP) No. 5 Oregon (11-1) vs. No. 3 Washington (12-0) Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas Line: Oregon -9.5 Over/under: 65.5
I thought Oregon was the better team the last time these teams played. My opinion hasn’t changed, either, even though Washington got the win. The Ducks have looked like one of the best teams in the country in their last six games – beating opponents by a combined score of 252-96. I also think the Huskies are due for a loss since they’ve won their last eight games by a combined 49 points.
“I’m the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.”
– Staff Sgt. Sean Dignam, “The Departed” (2006)
Top 10:
Biggest riser: Penn State (not ranked in last week’s top 10) Biggest faller: Florida State (dropped from last week’s top 10)
Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
1. Michigan Wolverines (12-0) Week 13 result: W, 30-24 vs. Ohio State Previous: 2 (+1)
I think Michigan deserves the No. 1 spot in my rankings. after beating Ohio State. The Wolverines were pretty much in full control the entire game. They now have a chance to win the Big Ten for a third-straight season.
Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart reacts on the sideline in the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
I was underwhelmed with how Georgia played against Georgia Tech. That’s a game that the Bulldogs should’ve won more convincingly. For now, I’m chalking it up as they were looking ahead to the SEC Championship.
Washington Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer reacts to a play against the Washington State Cougars during the third quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
3. Washington Huskies (12-0) Week 13 result: W, 24-21 vs. Washington State Previous: 4 (+1)
Washington has now won eight games in a row by 10 points or fewer. The Huskies keep finding ways to win close games, which is impressive. I’m not convinced that it’s sustainable, but this team keeps proving me wrong.
Oregon Ducks wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) celebrates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
4. Oregon Ducks (11-1) Week 13 result: W, 31-7 vs. Oregon State Previous: 5 (+1)
I continue to be impressed with the way Oregon has played. The Ducks have dominated on both sides of the ball since losing to Washington earlier this season. I think they’re in great position to win the Pac-12.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates a first down in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) Week 13 result: L, 24-30 at Michigan Previous: 3 (-2)
I don’t think Ohio State should be punished too much after losing to Michigan. The Buckeyes still have quality wins over Notre Dame and Penn State. They also dominated the other teams on their schedule.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Texas is looking more and more like the team we saw at the beginning of the season. The Longhorns are so much better when Quinn Ewers is healthy. They now have a chance to win the Big 12 Championship for the last time.
Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) drops back to pass against the Auburn Tigers during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
I’m not too concerned with Alabama struggling Saturday. Auburn always gives the Crimson Tide trouble, especially in Auburn. I still think this team is very good. We’ll see if it can win the SEC Championship this week.
Mississippi Rebels defensive back Zamari Walton (6) reacts after a missed field goal by the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
8. Ole Miss Rebels (10-2) Week 13 result: W, 17-7 at Mississippi State Previous: 9 (+1)
Ole Miss clinched its second 10-win season in program history, and both seasons have come in Lane Kiffin’s tenure. If the Rebels hadn’t played Alabama and Georgia this year, they would’ve had a great chance to have a special season.
LSU Tigers wide receiver Kyren Lacy (2) points to quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) after scoring a touchdown against the Texas A&M Aggies during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
With the way Jayden Daniels finished the season, he made a strong case to win the Heisman Trophy. Daniels collected 1,852 total yards and 20 total touchdowns in his last four games. It’s hard to tell where LSU would be without him.
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) hands off the ball to running back Kaytron Allen (13) during the first half against Michigan State at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) Week 13 result: W, 42-0 at Michigan State Previous: Not ranked
With the injury to Jordan Travis, I had to bump Florida State out of my top 10 and insert Penn State. The Nittany Lions are a really good team that lost to Ohio State and Michigan. They’ve outscored the other FBS teams on their schedule 356-86.
Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) drops back to pass against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the first half at FAU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
UTSA (8-3) at No. 23 Tulane (10-1) Yulman Stadium New Orleans Line: Tulane -3.5 Over/under: 51.5
I really want to pick UTSA to win this game. The Roadrunners have won seven games in a row by a combined score of 287-155. I also haven’t been that impressed with Tulane, which has won each of its last six games by 10 points or fewer. I’m still picking the Green Wave to win, though. They have a record of 28-14 at home since 2017. I also think Tulane has the better defense.
Prediction: Tulane 27, UTSA 23
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass against the the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
Texas Tech (6-5) at No. 7 Texas (10-1) DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, Texas Line: Texas -13.5 Over/under: 52.5
Texas Tech has won three games in a row, but hasn’t been impressive during the process. In fact, the Red Raiders won those three games by a combined 11 points. It feels like they’re due for a loss and I think it’ll come this week. Texas is the significantly more talented team. Texas Tech’s defense will have a difficult time defending the Longhorns’ offense, which averages 33.3 points per game.
Prediction: Texas 34, Texas Tech 17
Oregon Ducks defensive back Cole Martin (21) celebrates an interception with teammate Jahlil Florence (6) against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
No. 16 Oregon State (8-3) at No. 6 Oregon (10-1) Autzen Stadium Eugene, Ore. Line: Oregon -13.5 Over/under: 61.5
I think Oregon State is catching Oregon at the wrong time. The Beavers are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Washington. Their defense has also struggled on the road – allowing 31 points per game against Power 5 competition. I don’t think that bodes well going up against Oregon, which ranks in the top 20 in the country in both rushing offense and passing efficiency. I have to pick the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon 41, Oregon State 24
Saturday:
Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Kevin Coleman (3) runs with the football for a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
I doubt Kentucky is good enough to win this game. The Wildcats have lost five of their last six games, and have averaged just 20 points per game during that stretch. That won’t be good enough to knock off Louisville, which averages 33.1 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Kentucky’s defense isn’t that bad, but it’ll have a difficult time slowing down the Cardinals’ offense this week.
Prediction: Louisville 34, Kentucky 20
LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) avoids the tackle attempt of Georgia State Panthers safety TyGee Leach (29) in the third quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Dobbins-USA TODAY Sports
I wouldn’t be so quick to count out Texas A&M in this game. The Aggies’ offense has played well in its last four games – averaging 38.5 points per game. LSU’s defense is one of the worst in the country, so scoring opportunities will be available for Texas A&M. However, the Tigers will have the best player on the field in Jayden Daniels, who’s accounted for almost 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns in his last three games.
Prediction: LSU 38, Texas A&M 31
Alabama Crimson Tide running back Justice Haynes (22) celebrates with quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) after scoring a touchdown against the Chattanooga Mocs at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
No. 8 Alabama (10-1) at Auburn (6-5) Jordan-Hare Stadium Auburn, Ala. Line: Alabama -14.5 Over/under: 48.5
Auburn always plays Alabama tough at home. I’m struggling to see how the Tigers keep this game close, though. Auburn’s offense is one of the worst in the SEC – averaging just 25.8 points per game against FBS competition. I think the Tigers will have a difficult time scoring points on the Crimson Tide’s defense, which allows just 17.3 points per game. I expect Alabama to win convincingly.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Auburn 14
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws the ball during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Washington State (5-6) at No. 4 Washington (11-0) Husky Stadium Seattle Line: Washington -16.5 Over/under: 67.5
I think Washington State is capable of keeping up with Washington on the scoreboard. The Cougars’ offense averages 32.6 points per game. With the game in Seattle, though, I have to pick Washington to win. The Huskies not only have one of the best offenses in college football, but I think their defense is underrated. I expect Washington to be ready to play since Playoff implications are on the line.
Prediction: Washington 41, Washington State 27
Florida State Seminoles running back C.J. Campbell Jr. (22) and offensive lineman Darius Washington (76) celebrate a touchdown against the North Alabama Lions during the fourth quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Florida State (11-0) at Florida (5-6) Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Gainesville, Fla. Line: Florida State -6.5 Over/under: 49.5
Florida State hasn’t been that impressive in recent weeks. It’ll now be without Jordan Travis the rest of the season. I’m not convinced that the Seminoles are a top 10 team in the country without him. Bill Napier needs to win this game in order to get Florida to a bowl game. The Gators arguably have just as talented of a roster as Florida State, too. With this game in Gainesville, I’m picking the upset.
Prediction: Florida 27, Florida State 20
Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint (1) reacts after catching a touchdown pass against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Georgia (11-0) at Georgia Tech (6-5) Bobby Dodd Stadium Atlanta Line: Georgia -24.5 Over/under: 60.5
I doubt Georgia Tech’s defense will be able to prevent Georgia from scoring too many points. The Yellow Jackets are allowing 30.5 points per game and 222.4 rushing yards per game (5.3 yards per carry). Georgia’s offense has played well in recent weeks – averaging 41.8 points per game in its last six games. I expect the Bulldogs to run the ball effectively this week and cruise to a victory.
Prediction: Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 20
North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown signals during the third quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
North Carolina (8-3) at No. 22 NC State (8-3) Carter-Finley Stadium Raleigh, N.C. Line: North Carolina -2.5 Over/under: 55.5
NC State has strung together some wins in recent weeks, but I think its record is inflated. The Wolfpack’s last five wins have come against teams with a combined record of 27-28, and the win over Clemson came before the team’s current three-game win streak. North Carolina’s defense has significantly struggled on the road, but I doubt NC State’s offense is good enough to win this game.
Prediction: North Carolina 34, NC State 27
Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Will Howard (18) throws a pass against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Iowa State (6-5) at No. 19 Kansas State (8-3) Bill Snyder Family Stadium Manhattan, Kan. Line: Kansas State -9.5 Over/under: 45.5
It’s hard for me to pick against Kansas State right now. The Wildcats have won five of their last six games, and outscored their competition 240-109 during that stretch. Kansas State also has a slight chance of making it to the Big 12 Championship, so I expect Chris Klieman to have his team ready to play. Iowa State has been a nice story this season, but I doubt it’s good enough to win this game.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Iowa State 21
Game of the week:
Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) reacts after recording a sack against the Maryland Terrapins during the second half at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Ohio State (11-0) at No. 3 Michigan (11-0) Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, Mich. Line: Michigan -3.5 Over/under: 45.5
I don’t know if Ohio State is physical enough to beat Michigan, which hasn’t been the case the last two seasons. I’ll still pick the Buckeyes to win this game, though. I think their defense, which allows just 9.2 points per game and 108.5 rushing yards per game, can make the Wolverines’ offense one dimensional. If so, I don’t trust J.J. McCarthy to lead Michigan to victory with his arm.
“All right, listen up, ladies and gentlemen, our fugitive has been on the run for ninety minutes. Average foot speed over uneven ground, barring injuries, is 4 miles per hour. That gives us a radius of six miles. What I want from each and every one of you is a hard-target search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in that area. Checkpoints go up at fifteen miles. Your fugitive’s name is Dr. Richard Kimble. Go get him.”
– Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard, “The Fugitive” (1993)
Top 10:
Biggest riser: Texas (+1) Biggest faller: Florida State (-1)
Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint (1) reacts after catching a touchdown pass against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
I’ve been really impressed with Georgia in its last six games. The Bulldogs have won each of those games by a combined score of 251-101. I think this team is clicking at the right time. I give a lot of credit to Kirby Smart.
Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) reacts after recording a sack against the Maryland Terrapins during the second half at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
I’m not surprised that Michigan struggled Saturday. The game was sandwiched between Penn State and Ohio State, and Maryland was likely more excited for it than the Wolverines. I think this team is just fine.
Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) celebrates his touchdown run with offensive lineman Donovan Jackson (74) during the first quarter against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) Week 12 result: W, 37-3 vs. Minnesota Previous: 3
Ohio State’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points this season, which is something we’re not used to seeing under Ryan Day. A win this week will put the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship, and maybe even the Playoff.
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws the ball during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
4. Washington Huskies (11-0) Week 12 result: W, 22-20 at Oregon State Previous: 4
Even though Washington won another close game, that might’ve been the best it’s played in weeks. The Huskies ran the ball effectively, which is something they haven’t done consistently. They also looked great defensively.
Oregon Ducks defensive back Cole Martin (21) celebrates an interception with teammate Jahlil Florence (6) against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
5. Oregon Ducks (10-1) Week 12 result: W, 49-13 at Arizona State Previous: 5
Oregon didn’t have much trouble against Arizona State on Saturday. The Ducks’ offense made plays through the air as well as on the ground. A win this week will lock up a spot in the Pac-12 Championship.
Alabama Crimson Tide running back Justice Haynes (22) celebrates with quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) after scoring a touchdown against the Chattanooga Mocs at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
That’s nine straight wins for Alabama. It’s also four games in a row that the Crimson Tide scored at least 34 points. This team is playing its best football as we enter rivalry week, and with the SEC Championship looming next week.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass against the the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
7. Texas Longhorns (10-1) Week 12 result: W, 26-16 at Iowa State Previous: 8 (+1)
That was the best Texas has played in a few weeks. Quinn Ewers made plays through the air. The Longhorns also ran the ball effectively without Jonathan Brooks. This team needs help to enter the Playoff conversation, though.
Florida State Seminoles running back C.J. Campbell Jr. (22) and offensive lineman Darius Washington (76) celebrate a touchdown against the North Alabama Lions during the fourth quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports
8. Florida State Seminoles (11-0) Week 12 result: W, 58-13 vs. North Alabama Previous: 7 (-1)
I had to bump Florida State down in my rankings. The Seminoles haven’t played well in recent weeks. The injury to Jordan Travis on Saturday is also concerning. I’m not convinced this team can win the ACC without him.
Mississippi Rebels wide receiver Dayton Wade (19) runs after a catch for a touchdown against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks during the second half at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
9. Ole Miss Rebels (9-2) Week 12 result: W, 35-3 vs. Louisiana-Monroe Previous: 9
It wasn’t the best performance by Ole Miss on Saturday. The Rebels only led 7-3 at halftime before waking up in the second half. I assume that this team was looking ahead to the Egg Bowl on Thursday, which I can understand.
LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) avoids the tackle attempt of Georgia State Panthers safety TyGee Leach (29) in the third quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Dobbins-USA TODAY Sports
10. LSU Tigers (8-3) Week 12 result: W, 56-14 vs. Georgia State Previous: 10
Jayden Daniels continues to make a strong argument to win the Heisman Trophy. He accounted for over 500 yards and eight total touchdowns this past week. LSU wouldn’t be nearly as good of a team without him.
On the bubble
Louisville Cardinals (10-1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-3) Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2)
All Things Sports from a Millennial 