How did they get here? The patient, 11-year journey it took for the Celtics to win the 2024 NBA Finals

Movie quote of the day:

“Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory lasts forever.”

— Shane Falco, “The Replacements” (2000)

General view after the Boston Celtics celebrate defeating the Dallas Mavericks in game five to win the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports


Today’s post will be telling the story of how my Boston Celtics became NBA champions in the 2023-24 season. The inspiration for this actually came last year when it looked like my Boston Bruins could have the greatest season in NHL history. They got bounced in the first round of the playoffs, but I held on to the idea for future reference. I’ll keep it in mind for each of my favorite teams going forward, too. Think of this post as a written championship DVD.

As the title indicates, it’s a story of patience, along with having a long-term vision for a team and roster construction through the draft. It’s becoming rare to see that kind of patience and vision nowadays. Sports fans have become progressively impatient in recent years and have a “win now” mentality, and I think you see it the most in the NBA.

The NBA is arguably the only professional sports league where it’s rare to see teams construct rosters through the draft. It’s not because NBA teams don’t care, but more because the talent pool in the draft just isn’t that deep. A team isn’t able to assemble a championship-level roster through the draft unless it has the No. 1 overall pick every year during a three- to five-year stretch, which is highly unlikely to happen since the top 14 picks are determined by a lottery system. It can also take players years to develop into stars since many enter the league at just 19 years old.

This is why Boston’s decision in 2013 to hit the reset button and build through the draft took a lot of guts. It’s always risky to make that decision in any professional sports league. There’s zero guarantee that stockpiling draft picks and getting young talent will lead to anything meaningful, and that’s especially true in the NBA. The success rate of hitting on draft picks just isn’t that high. There are so many teams that have had lottery picks over the years and haven’t been able to assemble a championship-level roster. Even if I wasn’t a Celtics fan, I’d be amazed by what they were able to accomplish.

So, how exactly did it happen? Let me explain.

Kevin Garnett (left), Ray Allen (center), and Paul Pierce celebrate after winning the NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2008. The trio won 273 games in five seasons and made two appearances in the NBA Finals. Mandatory credit: Associated Press

Backstory: The Pierce, Garnett, Allen era (2007-13)

I don’t know if you necessarily need to go this far back when telling this story. However, I’m not convinced that you can tell the story of how Boston won the NBA Finals in 2023-24 without bringing up the Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen era of the Celtics.

Boston had fallen on hard times after Hall of Famer Larry Bird retired in 1992. The Celtics had just six playoff appearances between 1992-2007, and never won more than 49 games in a single season during that stretch. Following a disastrous 24-58 season in 2006-07, Pierce voiced his frustration and even requested a trade unless the organization could acquire talented veterans. In the summer of 2007, executive director of basketball operations Danny Ainge traded for Garnett and Allen. The trio had immediate success — posting a record of 66-16 and winning the NBA Finals against Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers in their first season together.

Injuries plagued Boston the following two seasons, but the team was able to make it back to the NBA Finals in 2010, before losing to Bryant and the Lakers in seven games. In the 2010-11 season, the Celtics got off to a great start (winning 41 of their first 55 games) before hitting a wall in February, when they sent starting center Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstić at the trade deadline. The Pierce, Garnett, and Allen trio never had the same success again after trading Perkins. The Celtics went on to win just 15 of their last 27 games of that regular season and lost to LeBron James and Miami in five games in the second round of the postseason.

The 2011-12 season was shortened due to a lockout. Boston won just 39 of 66 games that year and lost to James and the Heat (again) in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. Allen left the Celtics and joined Miami that offseason, ending the trio with just one championship to show for it. Boston tried to stay competitive for the 2012-13 season by signing veteran Jason Terry to replace Allen. However, after winning just 41 games and losing in the first round of the postseason to New York, it was clear that changes were coming that offseason.

Keith Bogans (left), MarShon Brooks (middle, left), and Kris Humphries (middle) hold up their jerseys after being acquired by Boston in 2013, alongside head coach Brad Stevens (middle, right) and president of basketball operations Danny Ainge. Bogans, Brooks, and Humphries were acquired, along with several draft picks, in a trade that sent Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jason Terry (not pictured) to Brooklyn. That trade was the move that laid the foundation for the Celtics to win the 2023-24 NBA championship. Mandatory credit: Associated Press

A new era (2013-18)

The 2013 offseason brought a lot of change and was the beginning of a new era for the Celtics. A month after Boston was eliminated by the Knicks in the postseason, the team allowed head coach Doc Rivers out of his contract and traded him to the Los Angeles Clippers in exchange for an unprotected first-round pick in 2015.

A month after the Celtics traded Rivers, they hired Brad Stevens to be their next head coach. Stevens came from the college level, where he led Butler to five NCAA tournament appearances in six seasons including back-to-back appearances in the national championship. This move signified to the rest of the NBA that a rebuild was coming in Boston.

Of course, the move that the Celtics made in the 2013 offseason that everyone remembers came the next month. On July 12, they traded Pierce, Garnett, Terry, and D.J. White to Brooklyn in exchange for Keith Bogans, MarShon Brooks, Kris Joseph, Kris Humphries, and Gerald Wallace, along with first-round picks in 2014, 2016, 2018, and an option to swap picks in 2017. That blockbuster trade with the Nets is what helped Boston lay the foundation for it to assemble a championship-level roster.

Celtics received:Clippers received:
2015 first-round pick (R.J. Hunter)Doc Rivers
A breakdown of the Doc Rivers trade between Boston and the Clippers

Celtics received:Nets received:
Keith BogansPaul Pierce
MarShon BrooksKevin Garnett
Kris HumphriesJason Terry
Kris JosephD.J. White
Gerald Wallace2017 second-round pick (Sasha Vezenkov)
2014 first-round pick (James Young)
2016 first-round pick (Jaylen Brown)
2017 first-round pick swap (Jayson Tatum)
2018 first-round pick (Kyrie Irving)
A breakdown of the blockbuster trade between Boston and Brooklyn in 2013


The 2013-14 season went about the way that everyone thought it would for the Celtics, especially when you consider that four-time All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo missed 52 games. Boston finished with a record of 25-57 — its worst season since 2006-07. In the offseason, the Celtics drafted Marcus Smart, who becomes a major piece, with the No. 6 overall pick.

Boston improved remarkably during the 2014-15 season — improving its win total by 15 games to finish with a record of 40-42. The Celtics even made an appearance in the postseason before getting swept by James and Cleveland, with three of the four games decided by fewer than 10 points.

Boston also made three key trades in the middle of the season. On Dec. 18, the Celtics traded Rondo and Dwight Powell to Dallas in exchange for Jameer Nelson (flipped to Denver), Jae Crowder, and Brandan Wright (flipped to Phoenix), along with a 2015 protected first-round pick and 2016 second-round pick. On Jan. 12, Boston traded Green in a three-team trade with Memphis and New Orleans in exchange for Tayshaun Prince (flipped to Detroit), Austin Rivers (flipped to the Clippers), and a 2020 first-round pick, which becomes important later on. On Feb. 19, the Celtics acquired Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix in exchange for Marcus Thornton and a 2016 first-round pick.

Celtics received:Mavericks received:
Jameer Nelson (flipped to Denver)Rajon Rondo
Jae CrowderDwight Powell
Brandan Wright (flipped to Phoenix)
2015 protected first-round pick (Dallas retained)
2016 second-round pick (Demetrius Jackson)
A breakdown of the Rajon Rondo trade between Boston and Dallas

Celtics received: Grizzlies received: Pelicans received:
Austin Rivers (from New Orleans; flipped to the Clippers)Jeff Green (from Boston)Quincy Pondexter (from Memphis)
Tayshaun Prince (from Memphis; flipped to Detroit)Russ Smith (from New Orleans)2015 second-round pick (from Memphis; Branden Dawson)
2020 first-round pick (from Memphis; Aaron Nesmith)
A breakdown of the three-team trade between Boston, Memphis, and New Orleans in 2015

Celtics received: Suns received:
Isaiah ThomasMarcus Thornton
2016 first-round pick (Skal Labissière)
A breakdown of the trade that helped Boston acquire Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix


The 2015-16 season is when the tide started to turn in Boston’s rebuild, and when it began to reap the benefits of the trade with Brooklyn from 2013. In the offseason, the Celtics drafted Terry Rozier, who becomes a major piece, with the No. 16 overall pick. Meanwhile, the Nets regressed quickly. Garnett signed with Minnesota, Derron Williams signed with Dallas, and the team moved on from Joe Johnson in the middle of the regular season. All those moves occurred the year after Pierce left the team to sign with Washington.

Boston continued to overachieve during the regular season, finishing with 48 wins and making another postseason appearance. Brooklyn finished with a record of 21-61 and ended up with the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, which the Celtics owned. They used that pick on Jaylen Brown, who develops into one of the centerpieces of Boston’s roster, the following offseason. The Celtics also signed four-time All-Star forward Al Horford during free agency.

It was more of the same during the 2016-17 season. Boston improved on its win total again, finishing with a record of 53-29 before losing to James and the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Meanwhile, the Nets finished with the worst record in the NBA (20-62) and ended up with the No. 1 overall pick, which went to the Celtics because they had the right to swap first-round picks.

However, leading up to the draft, Ainge made another bold decision by trading out of the No. 1 overall pick. On June 19, Boston acquired the No. 3 overall pick from Philadelphia (via Sacramento) and a future first-round pick, which becomes important. Who did the Celtics draft with the No. 3 overall pick from the 76ers? None other than Jayson Tatum, who also develops into one of the centerpieces of Boston’s roster.

The offseason acquisitions didn’t stop there, though. The Celtics signed All-Star forward Gordon Hayward as a free agent. They also acquired Marcus Morris and four-time All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving via trades, giving up Thomas, Crowder, Ante Žižić, and the last remaining first-round pick from the trade with Brooklyn in order to get Irving.

Celtics received: 76ers received:
No. 3 overall pick (Jayson Tatum)No. 1 overall pick (from Brooklyn; Markelle Fultz)
Conditional first-round pick (Romeo Langford)
A breakdown of the trade that helped Boston draft Jayson Tatum in 2017

Celtics received: Cavaliers received:
Kyrie IrvingIsaiah Thomas
Jae Crowder
Ante Žižić
2018 first-round pick (from Brooklyn; Collin Sexton)
2020 second-round pick (flipped to Atlanta via Sacramento)
A breakdown of the trade that helped Boston acquire Kyrie Irving from Cleveland


Even though Boston was deemed as one of the contenders in the Eastern Conference heading into the 2017-18 regular season, things didn’t go as planned. On Opening Night, the Celtics lost Hayward for the season due to a fractured tibia and dislocated ankle. Irving was also lost for the season after undergoing a procedure to remove some tension wire in his knee.

Despite injuries to two of its better players, Boston still had success. The Celtics improved on their win total for a fifth-straight season, finishing with a record of 55-27. Boston made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, and even had a 3-2 lead in the series, before being knocked out by James and Cleveland (again).

The players that the Celtics drafted over the previous few years (Smart, Rozier, Brown, and Tatum) showed promise and almost put them in the NBA Finals in 2018. Despite losing to James and the Cavaliers, the future couldn’t have looked brighter in Boston.

Boston Celtics guard Kyrie Irving (11) talks with head coach Brad Stevens in the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Stagnation (2018-21)

The 2018 offseason got off to a pretty good start when Boston drafted Robert Williams III, who becomes a major piece. The 2018-19 season was disappointing, though. The Celtics finished with a record of 49-33 — the first time that they didn’t improve their win total since the 2013-14 season. Boston went on to lose to Giannis Antetokounmpo and an ascending Milwaukee team in the second round of the playoffs.

The offseason brought change to the Celtics, too. Irving signed with the Nets and Horford signed with the 76ers during free agency. Boston replaced Irving by acquiring three-time All-Star point guard Kemba Walker in a sign-and-trade deal with Charlotte in exchange for Rozier and a 2020 second-round pick. The Celtics also drafted Romeo Langford, who becomes a major piece, with the first-round pick they acquired from Philadelphia back in 2017.

Celtics received: Hornets received:
Kemba WalkerTerry Rozier
2020 second-round pick (Yam Madar)2020 second-round pick (Grant Riller)
The sign and trade that helped Boston land Kemba Walker from Charlotte


Boston was a better team in the 2019-20 season. The Celtics won 43 of their first 64 games before the season was cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic. The regular season resumed in late July, with the 22 teams that still had a mathematical chance to make the postseason playing eight games, and the entire playoffs, in “The Bubble.” Boston finished 5-3 in those games, finishing with a record of 48-24 and clinching the No. 3 seed in the East.

After sweeping the 76ers and knocking off No. 2-seeded Toronto, and the top-seeded Bucks getting eliminated in the second round, it looked like the Celtics would get to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010. However, they lost to fifth-seeded Miami in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Lakers, with James, went on to win their 17th championship in franchise history, which tied Boston for the most in the NBA. You could argue that tension was building at this point.

During the 2020 offseason, the Celtics drafted Aaron Nesmith, who becomes a major piece, with the extra first-round pick that they received from Memphis back in 2015. They also drafted Payton Pritchard, who becomes another major piece, with the No. 26 overall pick. Boston made more changes to its roster, too, by sending Hayward to Charlotte in a sign-and-trade deal in exchange for second-round picks.

The shortened 2020-21 season was the worst that the Celtics had since the 2013-14 season. Boston finished with a record of just 36-36 and snuck into the postseason anyway after beating the Wizards in the play-in Tournament. However, the Celtics lost to the Nets in five games in the first round, which was the first time they didn’t win a playoff series since 2016.

At this point, it felt like Boston was trending in the wrong direction. It’d been three consecutive seasons that the Celtics didn’t improve their win total. It even seemed like they’d been passed over in the East by teams like Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia. Not to mention that the Western Conference was only getting deeper. It was the first time that people, myself included, thought that Boston’s championship window had closed.

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) and guard Jaylen Brown (7) on the court against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Organizational changes, “The Jays” era finally takes off (2021-23)

The 2021 offseason brought a new era to the Celtics. Ainge retired from the front office and Stevens replaced him as president of basketball operations. For the first time since 2013, Boston was looking for a new head coach. On June 28, the Celtics hired Ime Udoka, who previously served as an assistant coach with the Nets.

Stevens made five trades before the start of the 2021-22 season, but none were more important than re-acquiring Horford from the Thunder in exchange for Walker, a 2021 first-round pick, and 2025 second-round picks. Trading Walker opened up a need for point guard, which becomes important later on.

Celtics received: Thunder received:
Al HorfordKemba Walker
Moses Brown2021 first-round pick (Alperen Şengün)
2023 second-round pick (flipped to Charlotte via New York)2025 second-round picks
A breakdown of the trade that helped Boston re-acquire Al Horford from Oklahoma City


The beginning of the 2021-22 season didn’t bode well for Boston, though. The Celtics lost 21 of their first 39 games. Things didn’t begin to turn around until January. Boston won nine of its last 13 games that month, along with its first four games in February. The Celtics were six games above .500 at that point and things were finally trending in the right direction.

Stevens kept the momentum going by making a big splash at the trade deadline by acquiring Derrick White. Boston was able to get him from San Antonio in exchange for Langford, Josh Richardson, a 2022 first-round pick, and the right to swap first-round picks in 2028. The need for a point guard was finally filled as the season was beginning to wind down.

Celtics received: Spurs received:
Derrick WhiteRomeo Langford
Josh Richardson
2022 first-round pick (Blake Wesley)
2028 first-round pick swap
A breakdown of the trade that helped Boston acquire Derrick White from San Antonio


The Celtics continued to play well after the addition of White. They won 20 of their last 26 games to end the regular season, clinching the No. 2 seed in the East. Boston swept Brooklyn — the team that sent it home the previous year — in the first round of the postseason. In the second round, the Celtics had to face the Bucks, who were the defending champions. Despite facing a 3-2 deficit in the series, Boston rallied to win the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. It was a battle against the Heat in that series, but the Celtics emerged victorious in seven games.

For the first time since 2010, and the first time with the duo of Brown and Tatum, Boston went back to the NBA Finals. However, things didn’t go its way. The Celtics fell to Steph Curry and Golden State in six games, despite holding a 2-1 lead at one point in the series. Even though it wasn’t the result Boston wanted, it was clear that the team entered another championship window.

The Celtics had a busy 2022 offseason. They acquired Malcolm Brogdon from Indiana in exchange for Nesmith, Daniel Theis, Nik Stauskas, Malik Fitts, Juwan Morgan, and a 2023 first-round pick. Boston also signed Danilo Gallinari and Blake Griffin as free agents. However, just a few weeks before the start of the season, the team suspended Udoka for violating the team’s code of conduct and named assistant coach Joe Mazzulla as interim head coach. It wasn’t the news the team wanted coming off an appearance in the NBA Finals.

Celtics received: Pacers received:
Malcolm BrogdonAaron Nesmith
Daniel Theis
Nik Stauskas
Malik Fitts
Juwan Morgan
2023 first-round pick (Julian Strawther)
A breakdown of the trade that helped Boston acquire Malcolm Brogdon from Indiana


The Celtics still managed to have success during the 2022-23 season. They won 42 of their first 59 games, and Mazzulla was named the permanent head coach on Feb. 16. Boston continued to play well, finishing with a record of 57-25 and clinching the No. 2 seed in the East. However, once the postseason started, the Celtics couldn’t find the same success they had in the regular season.

Boston struggled to beat Atlanta and Philadelphia in the first two rounds of the postseason, with both series going at least six games. The Celtics also struggled on the defensive end of the court — allowing 108.3 points per game in both series. Their struggles continued in the Eastern Conference Finals, where they fell to Jimmy Butler and the Heat in seven games after battling back from a 3-0 deficit in the series. It was now unclear if Boston had the right players in the locker room and the right head coach to get over the hump in the playoffs. The pundits were even chirping that it was time to split up the Brown and Tatum duo.

Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla holds up the trophy as he celebrates after winning the 2024 NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Banner No. 18 (2023-24)

The Celtics had another busy offseason in 2023, making some additions to their coaching staff and two key trades. On June 22, they traded Smart in a three-team trade with Memphis and Washington in exchange for Kristaps Porziņģis and two first-round picks. On Oct. 1, Boston traded Brogdon, Robert Williams III, the 2024 first-round pick acquired from Memphis, and a 2029 first-round pick in exchange for Jrue Holiday.

After the additions of Porziņģis and Holiday, the Celtics arguably had the best roster in the NBA on paper. It all came down to health and if the players would gel together.

Celtics received:Grizzlies received:Wizards received:
Kristaps Porziņģis (from Washington)Marcus Smart (from Boston)Tyus Jones (from Memphis)
2023 first-round draft pick (from Memphis; flipped to Detroit)Danilo Gallinari (from Boston)
2024 first-round draft pick (from Memphis)Mike Muscala (from Boston)
2023 second-round pick (from Boston; Trayce Jackson-Davis)
A breakdown of the three-team trade between Boston, Memphis, and Washington in 2023

Celtics received: Trail Blazers received:
Jrue HolidayMalcolm Brogdon
Robert Williams III
2024 first-round pick (from Memphis)
2029 first-round pick
A breakdown of the trade that helped Boston acquire Jrue Holiday from Portland


Not only did the talent on Boston’s roster gel together, but it had an incredible regular season. The Celtics finished with a record of 64-18, posting a point differential of 11.4 points (the fifth best mark in NBA history), and clinching home-court advantage in the East. Boston didn’t have much trouble getting through the East, winning its first three postseason series in five games or fewer and outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points. After sweeping Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics punched their ticket to the NBA Finals for a second time in three seasons.

Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league, was the team to come out of the West. The Mavericks won 36 of their last 50 games, including the postseason. Luka Dončić was one of hottest players in the game entering The Finals — averaging 30.5 points per game in his last 47 games. Dallas was even getting solid production from young role players like P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II. Lastly, the Celtics were going up against a former teammate in Irving.

It looked like Boston was going to have its hands full in The Finals. Many pundits actually picked the Mavericks to win the series, even though the Celtics were heavy favorites (-220) according to Vegas. When Porziņģis was cleared to play after sustaining an injury earlier in the postseason, it was officially on.

Boston set the tone in Game 1 of the series, winning by 18 points after having a 29-point lead in the first half. The Celtics didn’t get off to as fast of a start in Game 2, but they battled after taking the Mavericks’ best shot early in the game. Boston took control in the second half to win by seven points and take a 2-0 lead in the series. The Celtics took care of business on their home court as the teams traveled to Dallas.

Like in Game 2, Boston got off to a slow start, falling behind by as many as 13 points in the first quarter. Nobody panicked, though. The Celtics ended up outscoring Dallas by 20 points the rest of the way, holding it to under 100 points again, to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. Boston was on the verge of being just the fourth team to win The Finals in a sweep since 2000. However, it wasn’t meant to be. The Mavericks bounced back in a big way in Game 4, winning by 38 points, to stay alive in the series. Both teams were heading back to Boston.

Game 5 of the series was on June 17, which was the same date that the Pierce, Garnett, and Allen trio won the NBA Finals back in 2008. The Celtics would be champions on that date once again. They took control of Game 5 in the second quarter, taking a 21-point lead right before halftime. Boston never looked back and even had a 26-point lead late in the fourth quarter. Dallas finally waved the white flag with a little over two minutes left to play when it took Dončić and Irving out of the game.

The celebration began in that moment. The Celtics were NBA champions for the first time in 16 years and had secured their 18th championship in franchise history. Even though Brown won Finals MVP, it was a team effort by Boston in order to win it all in 2023-24. The Celtics had three different players lead them in scoring in The Finals. That’s just the eighth time that’s happened by the winning team in the last 20 years, and just the fourth time in the last decade.

Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42) celebrates after winning the 2024 NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Legacy

Boston’s journey to win the NBA Finals in the 2023-24 season began when Ainge decided to strip down the team in 2013. It’s remarkable how the Celtics were able to assemble the team they had this past season. Seven of the top eight players in Boston’s rotation were acquired either through the draft or via trade because of decisions that the organization made between 2013-20.

During that stretch, Boston made a total of 25 trades and had 26 draft picks. Everyone knows that two of those picks were used to draft Brown and Tatum, who are now the best players on the roster. One of those picks was also used on Pritchard, who’s one of the team’s key players off the bench. However, it goes much deeper than that.

There were other players that Boston drafted between 2013-20 that turned out to be useful, even if they weren’t on the 2023-24 roster. Without Smart, the Celtics don’t get Porziņģis. Without Langford, they don’t get White. Without Nesmith, they don’t get Brogdon. Without Brogdon and Robert Williams III, they don’t get Holiday. Even the trades for Thomas and Crowder in 2015 had a domino effect. They were both used to acquire Irving, who created a need for a point guard when he left Boston in 2019. That forced the Celtics to use Rozier to acquire Walker, who was later used to acquire Horford. That move opened up the need for another point guard, which led to getting White.

All of those roster moves can be traced back to Ainge’s decision to enter a rebuild in 2013, which was a huge gamble. However, Boston proved that it’s possible to win a championship by stockpiling picks and building through the draft if you’re willing to be patient. I’d say that I’m curious to see what kind of impact that that has on other front offices around the league, but we’re already seeing it in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have had 13 draft picks over the last three years, and potentially have as many as 34 more to come over the next seven years. Yes, you’re reading that correctly.

The NBA is in the middle of transitioning out of the James, Curry, Kevin Durant era. That might explain why we’ve had a different champion each of the last six seasons. The Celtics might’ve just caught the league at the right time in order to win it all. However, with Brown, Tatum, Holiday, and Porziņģis each locked up contractually over the next two years, it’s not impossible that Boston becomes the NBA’s next dynasty. If that happens, it’ll still be traced back to the 2013 offseason and the decisions that were made in the years that followed.

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2023-24 NBA season predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Let it rain!”

– Sandy Lyle, “Along Came Polly” (2004)

Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone kisses the Larry O’Brien Trophy after winning the 2023 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


The NBA regular season is upon us, after what was a relatively quiet offseason for the league. That’s something that I haven’t witnessed in over a decade. Before the recent Damian Lillard and Jrue Holliday trades, the biggest acquisition made this offseason was arguably Memphis trading for Marcus Smart. Outside of acquisitions, the biggest story was probably James Harden and his drama with Philadelphia. 

Think about it, it feels like there’s always a big name to join a new team in recent years. We eventually got it with the Lillard trade, but it came in at the 11th hour of the offseason. That’s just something we’re not familiar with as NBA fans. 


My outlook for this season is that the league is still very balanced. The days of teams having a “Big 3” comprised of super stars are in the rearview mirror. The best teams in the NBA currently have two star players and a bunch of quality role players. I’m not used to seeing so much parity in this league. That’s why I think as many as six or seven teams can legitimately win the championship, as opposed to just two or three a few seasons ago. 

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dunks in the third quarter of their game against the Washington Wizards at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners predictions

AwardWinner
Most Valuable PlayerGiannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
Defensive Player of the YearEvan Mobley, Cleveland
Sixth Man of the YearImmanuel Quickley, New York
Rookie of the YearVictor Wembanyama, San Antonio
Price’s predicted major award winners


Antetokounmpo seems poised to have an MVP-caliber season. He’s arguably the best player in the NBA and has battled injuries each of the last two seasons. I also think having a new head coach in Milwaukee will allow Antetokounmpo to have more of an impact. Mobley is a good bet to win Defensive Player of the Year. He’s improved as a defender each year he’s been a pro, including being named to the first-team All-Defensive Team last season.

Quickley is one of the best players to come off the bench. He’s also improved as a player every season, improving his scoring to 14.9 points per game last season. Quickley is going to get a lot of recognition because he plays in New York, which is why I think he has a great chance to win the Sixth Man of the Year. I’m going chalk by picking Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year. He was regarded as one of the best prospects to come through the draft in recent years. With Gregg Poppvich as Wembanyama’s head coach, there’s no telling just how much of an impact he’ll have as a rookie. 

Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) dribbles while defended by Oklahoma City Thunder forward Ousmane Dieng (13) during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

Eastern Conference

TeamRecord
1Milwaukee Bucks55-27
2Boston Celtics54-28
3Cleveland Cavaliers50-32
4Miami Heat48-34
5Philadelphia 76ers45-37
6New York Knicks44-38
7Atlanta Hawks*41-41
8Indiana Pacers*40-42
9Brooklyn Nets*37-45
10Chicago Bulls*36-46
11Orlando Magic35-47
12Toronto Raptors34-48
13Charlotte Hornets32-50
14Detroit Pistons28-54
15Washington Wizards22-60
Price’s Eastern Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


I think the East comes down to two teams: Boston and Milwaukee. They have the most collection of talent in the conference. I’m going to give the slight advantage to the Bucks, though. The addition of Lillard is huge and it gives Milwaukee two reliable scorers every game. It also pushes Khris Middleton down to the No. 3 scorer, which might be a better spot for him. As I mentioned before, I also think the Bucks having a new head coach is going to unleash a side of Antetokounmpo that we haven’t seen since he won MVP in 2020. 

I don’t know what to expect from Boston. The Celtics are certainly talented enough to win it all, but they shook up their roster by moving on from Marcus Smart and Robert Williams, and acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Holliday. Boston should still finish in the top three in the East, though. I’m expecting Cleveland to improve with a full offseason of Donovan Mitchell working with the young players on the Cavaliers’ roster. I’m not going to count out Miami, either. The Heat won the East last year and have a great duo in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. A lot of things went their way last postseason, though, and they lost some quality role players this offseason. 

I think the days of Philadelphia being one of the top teams in the East are in the rearview mirror. The 76ers have their hands full with Harden, who I’m not convinced will finish the season with the team, and they have a new head coach. New York is one of the better teams in the East. The Knicks have a nice trio in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and R.J. Barrett, along with a decent head coach in Tom Thibodeau. Atlanta should be the best team outside of the top six solely because of Trae Young. Indiana should improve from last year, especially if Tyrese Haliburton plays more than 56 games. 

The last two spots of the play-in tournament will be a log jam between Brooklyn, Chicago, Orlando, and Toronto. I’m giving the Nets and Bulls the edge because those teams have a little more talent on their rosters. The Magic have some nice young players, but I need to see it make the playoffs first. There’s a decent chance that the Raptors trade away their best players before the deadline. Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington will likely round out the East. I doubt the Hornets have enough scoring outside of LaMelo Ball. The Pistons are still likely a year away from competing. The Wizards are entering a rebuild after trading Bradley Beal and Porzingis. 

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokič (15) against Phoenix Suns forward Chimezie Metu (4) during a preseason game at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Western Conference

TeamRecord
1Denver Nuggets53-29
2Phoenix Suns52-30
3Los Angeles Lakers50-32
4Sacramento Kings49-33
5Golden State Warriors46-36
6Los Angeles Clippers45-37
7Memphis Grizzlies*44-38
8Oklahoma City Thunder*43-39
9Minnesota Timberwolves*42-40
10New Orleans Pelicans*41-41
11Dallas Mavericks40-42
12Utah Jazz36-46
13Houston Rockets32-50
14San Antonio Spurs31-51
15Portland Trail Blazers25-57
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


The West is loaded with quality teams. There are probably 11 teams good enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are only 10 spots (if you count the play-in tournament). The team I like to finish No. 1 in the standings is the defending champions. Denver has one of the best players in the game in Nikola Jokič, who’s won MVP two of the last three seasons. The Nuggets also didn’t lose many of their other key role players, either. I think the organization is in the middle of a special point in its history. 

The second-best team in the West is arguably Phoenix, even though it moved on from Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Suns still have two of the best players in the NBA in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, and they traded for Beal. I also think, similar to Milwaukee, hiring a new head coach could make Phoenix better. Another team that I like is the Lakers. Remember, they got to the Western Conference Finals last year. I think they finally have a quality team to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I wanted to put Sacramento higher in my standings. The Kings have a nice young core, led by DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. I just like the other teams a little more. 

I’m not going to count out Golden State as a championship contender. I just think the Warriors are aging, and the 2022 season feels like an outlier. I can’t bring myself to quit on the Clippers. They have a veteran roster, featuring Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. It’s going to be difficult for Memphis to finish in the top six in the West with Ja Morant suspended for 25 games. The Grizzlies are still a young, talented team that should find a way to make the postseason. Oklahoma City has been trending in the right direction in recent seasons. The Thunder have put together a solid young core and I think they’ll be a playoff team. 

With Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota should be good enough to at least appear in the play-in tournament. I doubt the Timberwolves can finish in the top six spots, though. New Orleans has the potential to finish higher in the standings. It comes down to if Zion Williamson can stay healthy, which he hasn’t been able to do. I think Dallas is closer to the team that we saw in 2022, but I don’t trust Kyrie Irving. I have a difficult time seeing Utah competing for a playoff spot. Houston still has a ways to go, even though it should be improved under new head coach Ime Udoka. It’s rare for a rookie to immediately dominate the NBA, but I’m curious to see how Wembanyama performs for San Antonio. I don’t expect Portland to be that competitive after moving on from Lillard. 

2024 NBA Finals

Denver vs. Milwaukee

Thesefeel like the best teams with the fewest question marks in both conferences. Denver and Milwaukee have two of the top five players in the game in Jokič and Antetokounmpo. They also have plenty of scoring depth, including quality secondary options in Lillard and Jamal Murray. If they manage to get home-court advantage, I have a difficult time seeing either of them not representing their conferences in the Finals. 

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers during game two of the Western Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


The team I like to win it all is the Nuggets. As I mentioned earlier, I think they’re in the middle of something special. Jokič and Murray are one of the best duos in the league, and both are starting to enter their primes. I also think Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are solid depth players. I don’t see any reason to think Denver will fall off this season. 

Winner: Nuggets in six

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2022-23 NBA season predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“War is young men dying and old men talking. You know this. Ignore the politics.”

– Odysseus, “Troy” (2004)

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates with the the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy after the Golden State Warriors beat the Boston Celtics in game six of the 2022 NBA Finals to win the NBA Championship at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


October has to be the busiest month on the sports calendar. We’re about to have all four major sports (baseball, basketball, football, and hockey) being played at the same time. This week, it’s the NBA that starts back up. Historically, the NBA has always been a top-heavy league decided on which teams accumulated the most talent. The lack of parity in the league is why I lost interest in it from 2017-21, because the championship was coming down to two teams every season.

That’s no longer the case. This is the most intrigued that I’ve been with the NBA in years, and only partially because my Boston Celtics competed in the NBA Finals last season.

I think this is the most wide open the NBA has ever been. The league finally has some form of parity. That’s particularly true in the Eastern Conference. I could see as many as five or six teams represent the East in the NBA Finals. The Western Conference is a little bit more top-heavy. I could probably see three teams win the conference. However, I’m not convinced that the top of the West is that much better than the rest of the conference.

I truly believe that this is the most balanced that the NBA has been in decades, which is why I’m looking forward to this season.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić (77) in action against the Golden State Warriors during game four of the 2022 Western Conference finals at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners predictions

AwardPlayer
Most Valuable PlayerLuka Dončić, Dallas
Defensive Player of the YearGiannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
Sixth Man of the YearJordan Poole, Golden State
Rookie of the YearPaolo Banchero, Orlando
Price’s predicted major award winners


I think Dončić is poised to have a special season. It felt like last year was his official coming out party. He led Slovenia to the bronze medal game in the Summer Olympics and finished top five in the NBA in scoring – averaging 28.4 points per game. He’s a young player just getting started. If Antetokounmpo doesn’t win MVP, he’s a good bet to win Defensive Player of the Year award. Antetokounmpo has made the NBA All-Defensive First Team each of the last four seasons.

Poole has a great chance of winning Sixth Man of the Year. He averaged 18.5 points per game last year and was an important cog in Golden State winning the NBA Finals. He’s also guaranteed to come off the bench with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson starting. Picking Banchero to win Rookie of the Year is chalk. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft in June and is the Vegas favorite to win the award. He’s going to get a lot of playing time and scoring chances playing for Orlando.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots during the second quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Eastern Conference

TeamRecord
1Milwaukee Bucks56-26
2Miami Heat54-28
3Philadelphia 76ers53-29
4Boston Celtics50-32
5Cleveland Cavaliers48-34
6Brooklyn Nets46-36
7Toronto Raptors*45-37
8Atlanta Hawks*42-40
9New York Knicks*41-41
10Chicago Bulls*40-42
11Charlotte Hornets36-46
12Detroit Pistons33-49
13Washington Wizards30-52
14Orlando Magic26-56
15Indiana Pacers21-61
Price’s Eastern Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


The East comes down to about six teams, specifically Milwaukee, Miami, and Philadelphia. I consider the Bucks to be the best team. If Khris Middleton doesn’t get hurt in the postseason last season, I think it’s likely Milwaukee gets back to the NBA Finals. With Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are going to be in the mix, but they have a much better chance of winning it all with a healthy Middleton.

I don’t expect much regression from Miami, which lost in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season. The Heat have a terrific duo with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They also have a deep, talented roster with players like Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo. I feel like Miami gets forgotten about in the East, but I consider it to be one of the top teams in the NBA. Philadelphia has struggled to get over the hump, but it ought to be in the mix. The 76ers have the reigning MVP in Joel Embiid, an elite scorer in James Harden, and an experienced head coach in Doc Rivers. I question Philadelphia’s depth outside of those two players, but adding P.J. Tucker will help with that.

Vegas actually considers Boston to be the favorite to win the championship. However, I have my reservations about this team with Ime Udoka suspended for the season. As a fellow WVU alumni, I love Joe Mazzulla, but he has his hands full as this team’s interim head coach. Cleveland already had a promising young core with Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers also improved the most this offseason by trading for Donovan Mitchell. They now have a three talented young players and a bonafide star in Mitchell. I’m not convinced that Brooklyn is going to win a championship with the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. The Nets haven’t been able to get over the hump with the current players on their roster and I don’t believe in Steve Nash as a head coach. However, Brooklyn still has too much talent and should make the playoffs.

The play-in tournament is likely to come down to Toronto, Atlanta, New York, and Chicago. I trust Toronto to put a competitive team on the court. The Raptors are a well run organization and have exceeded expectations since Kawhi Leonard left the team in 2019. Atlanta doesn’t have much, but it has a star in Trae Young. As long as he’s healthy, the Hawks will have a chance to win games. Last season didn’t go well, but I’m not ready to give up on New York. The Knicks have promising young players in R.J. Barrett and Jalen Brunson. Tom Thibodeau is also an experienced head coach. Chicago exceeded expectations last season – finishing as the No. 6 team in the East. I don’t see the Bulls repeating that success. The Bulls already have DeMar DeRozan and added some good veterans like Andre Drummond and Goran Dragić. Chicago ought to be in the mix to make the playoffs.

I came close to putting Charlotte in the playoffs. The Hornets made the play-in tournament last year and have a rising star in LaMelo Ball. The East got much better this offseason and I’m not sure Charlotte did the same. I think Detroit is a team to keep an eye on. If Cade Cunningham takes a huge step forward in his develop, the Pistons will have a chance to make the playoffs. That’s a tall order, though. Washington doesn’t have much on its roster outside of Bradley Beal. I don’t see the Wizards being that competitive. I like what Orlando is building with Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, and Banchero. I still think the Magic are a few years away from being competitive. Indiana stripped it down in the offseason. It’ll likely be a long season for the Pacers, but I like the potential of their young core in Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Smith, and Bennedict Mathurin.

Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) and Devin Booker (1) against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Western Conference

TeamRecord
1Phoenix Suns58-24
2Golden State Warriors57-25
3Denver Nuggets54-28
4Memphis Grizzlies51-31
5Dallas Mavericks49-33
6Los Angeles Clippers46-36
7Minnesota Timberwolves*44-38
8Los Angeles Lakers*41-41
9New Orleans Pelicans*40-42
10Sacramento Kings*39-43
11Portland Trail Blazers34-48
12Utah Jazz29-53
13Houston Rockets24-58
14San Antonio Spurs23-59
15Oklahoma City Thunder20-62
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


The West is definitely more top heavy than the East. Phoenix finished No. 1 in the West in last year’s regular season, and finished No. 2 the year before. Even though the Suns disappointed in the playoffs, I still consider them to be one of the best teams in the league. They have one of the best cores with Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges. There aren’t many teams as talented as Phoenix in the entire NBA, which is why I like it to finish at the top of the West once again.

Golden State is coming off its fourth championship in eight seasons. The Warriors didn’t lose many key contributors either. They also have the best combination of veterans and youth, along with one of the best players in basketball in Curry. I don’t see Golden State going anywhere. I feel like Denver is forgotten about in the West. Remember, the Nuggets weren’t healthy last year and still managed to win 48 games. With a healthy core of Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr., I think Denver will be among the top teams in the West.

Memphis felt like a team that over performed last year. The Grizzlies had one of the youngest rosters in the league and won 56 games. They have a rising star in Ja Morant and added Danny Green to give them a veteran presence. I think Memphis regresses a bit, though. With Dončić, Dallas is going to have a chance to win the West. He’s one of the top players in the NBA. What I think will hold the Mavericks back is their lack of depth. They don’t have many quality scorers outside of Dončić. The duo of Leonard and Paul George hasn’t worked out for the Clippers. I’m not banking on them to be much better than what they’ve been the last two seasons. However, the addition of John Wall could help them win more games.

I’m going to pick Minnesota, the Lakers, New Orleans, and Portland to make the West’s play-in tournament. I really like the Timberwolves’ core of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell. Minnesota also has a plethora of young players who could step up, and it added one of the best defensive bigs and veterans in Rudy Gobert. The Lakers were a huge disappointment last season. I have a difficult time seeing them miss the playoffs for a third time in four years with LeBron James. He’s still at the top of his game and the addition of Patrick Beverley could help them get over the hump. New Orleans was one of the surprise teams last year and I don’t see it falling off. The Pelicans have a solid duo in C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valančiūnas is also pretty good. If this team can figure out defense, they might finish higher in the standings. I’m going out on a limb and picking Sacramento to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006. The Kings already have a rising star in De’Aaron Fox, and Davion Mitchell showed promise as a rookie last year. I also like their additions of Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter. I think this team has a chance to surprise people.

Portland has a chance to sneak in the playoffs because it has Damian Lillard. However, the Trail Blazers are getting younger and I don’t think they’re going to be much better than they were last season. Even though Utah traded Donovan Mitchell, I think it’ll finish close to 30 wins. The Jazz are a very well-run organization. Unless Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., or Jabari Smith Jr. surprisingly develop into one of the top players in the NBA, I’m expecting Houston to finish near the bottom of the West. I like what the Rockets are building, but it’s going to take them time. Even though San Antonio’s Vegas win total is the worst in the West, I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt because it has Gregg Popovich. He’s a great coach who can prevent the Spurs from finishing last in the conference. Oklahoma City is in the middle of a rebuild and likely won’t be competitive this season. The Thunder don’t have many quality players outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s starting the season injured along with Chet Holmgren.

2023 NBA Finals

Miami vs. Golden State

Boston and Milwaukee get the spotlight in the East, but people forget that Miami was a game away from going to the NBA Finals last season. The Heat might have the best scoring depth in the conference, with three players in Adebayo, Butler, and Herro who can score 20 each game. Plus, Lowry and Oladipo are also quality players. I think Golden State is poised to be better than it was last season. The Warriors have one of the best cores, not only in the West, but in the entire league. You could also argue that they got better in the offseason after adding Donte DiVincenzo, JaMychal Green, and Ty Jerome.

The NBA is the only league that I’m comfortable picking defending champions. We’ve seen it happen frequently in the last 40 years. That’s why I don’t have reservations about picking Golden State to win it all for a second-straight season. The Warriors have an excellent trio with Curry, Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins, and maybe the deepest roster in the NBA. Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala are also capable veterans. Last season felt like the start of the second act in Golden State’s dynasty.

Prediction: Warriors in six

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2021-22 NBA season predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Man, I don’t drop character ’till I done the DVD commentary.”

– Kirk Lazarus, “Tropic Thunder” (2008)

It occurred to me a few weeks ago that I haven’t done NBA season predictions since the 2017-18 season. I feel compelled to remedy that. I’ll admit that, after the last few years, I was beginning to lose interest in the NBA. However, I actually thoroughly enjoyed watching last year’s postseason. I can’t explain why, but I found myself really interested in watching because it wasn’t the usual teams in the running for the championship. I liked watching Phoenix and Milwaukee, two cities that don’t have the best history, compete for the championship. I have a soft spot for the little guy, especially in historically top-heavy professional sports league like the NBA.

Like the NHL, the NBA is set to have its first “normal” regular season since 2018-19. The COVID-19 pandemic paused the 2019-20 season – resulting in “the bubble” for the playoffs – and last year was also shortened. This season should be the usual 82-game schedule for all 30 teams. The one main difference is that it appears that the league is keeping the “play-in tournament” that it implemented last season. What that means is that teams that finish No. 7-10 in each conference have to play a small tournament in order to get the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds. That honestly feels a bit much because way too many teams make the NBA postseason as it is. You’re really telling me that two thirds of the league deserves to make the postseason? I just don’t believe it.

It’s time for my NBA season predictions for the first time in three years.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) brings the ball up court against the LA Clippers during the first quarter in game three in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners predictions:

Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic, Dallas
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Utah
Sixth Man of the Year: Jordan Clarkson, Utah
Rookie of the Year: Cade Cunningham, Detroit

Eastern Conference

Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant (7) brings the ball up court against the Philadelphia 76ers during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
EastTeamRecord
1Brooklyn Nets60-22
2Milwaukee Bucks58-24
3Philadelphia 76ers54-28
4Miami Heat52-30
5Atlanta Hawks46-36
6Indiana Pacers43-39
7Boston Celtics*42-40
8New York Knicks*41-41
9Chicago Bulls*39-43
10Charlotte Hornets*37-45
11Toronto Raptors31-51
12Washington Wizards31-51
13Detroit Pistons25-57
14Cleveland Cavaliers24-58
15Orlando Magic21-61
Price’s Eastern Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)

I think the East really comes down to Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, and even then the 76ers feel like a distant third. I know that the Bucks won the East last year, but I feel like that was mostly because the Nets sustained a lot of injuries. With Kevin Durant healthy, I expect Brooklyn to be the top team in the East, especially if/when Kyrie Irving is allowed in the facility. Milwaukee ought to finish second, maybe even first. It still has the best player in the conference in Giannis Antetokounmpo, which goes a long way in the NBA. I expect Philadelphia to finish third, but I could easily see it finishing worse than that given the Ben Simmons situation. The 76ers still have one of the better rosters in the league and one of the better head coaches in Doc Rivers, though. I expect them to be in the mix.

After those three teams, it kind of becomes a log jam of teams in the East. After the addition of Kyle Lowry, I think Miami to finish fourth, and it might even finish higher than that spot. Lowry could give the Heat exactly what they need to compliment Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, and Bam Adebayo. Then, I like Atlanta to finish in fifth. It felt like the Hawks arrived during last year’s deep playoff run. Trae Young is one of the best scorers in the NBA, but I do doubt their depth after him. Indiana, Boston, and New York will probably be battling for sixth place, and I’m going to give the advantage to the Pacers. They don’t have a great roster, but I respect their front office and Rick Carlisle as a head coach.

I expect the play-in tournament in the East to be between Boston, New York, Chicago, and Charlotte. The Celtics could easily finish higher in the standings, but they don’t really have a reliable point guard and are breaking in a new head coach. The Knicks were one of the better stories last year, but they’re probably going to take a step back because of they lack the ability to consistently score. The Bulls might be one of the most improved teams in the league after the additions of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan, but they still have some holes on their roster. The Hornets have a few guys that can score, but I just don’t see them being able to be much better than their 33-39 record from last year.

Western Conference

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against the Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
WestTeamRecord
1Phoenix Suns57-25
2Utah Jazz55-27
3Dallas Mavericks50-32
4Denver Nuggets49-33
5Los Angeles Lakers48-34
6Golden State Warriors47-35
7Los Angeles Clippers*46-36
8Portland Trail Blazers*44-38
9New Orleans Pelicans41-41
10Memphis Grizzlies40-42
11Sacramento Kings38-44
12Minnesota Timberwolves33-49
13San Antonio Spurs30-52
14Houston Rockets25-57
15Oklahoma City Thunder23-59
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)

As usual, I expect the West to be more competitive than the East. I could probably see maybe four or five teams winning the West – Phoenix, Utah, Dallas, the Lakers, and Denver. Ever since the Suns went 8-0 in “the bubble” in 2020 during the pandemic, they’ve shown zero signs of slowing down. They went from going undefeated in “the bubble” to winning 51 games and the Western Conference last year, and I expect them to finish first this season. Between Phoenix and Utah, I’d say it’s close which of those teams has more depth. The Jazz felt like a team that overperformed in the regular season last year. I think they’ll take a slight step back because of that. The Mavericks have a top three player in basketball in Doncic and they’re going to win a lot of games with him, but I have my reservations about Jason Kidd as their head coach. Despite having them finishing fourth, I still think the Nuggets are going to be in the mix in the West. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Denver makes it to the Finals in June. I consider the Lakers to be a contender in the West only because of LeBron James. I think we’ll see the Lakers closer to 2020 form when they won the championship, but I also think this season could go sideways for them because they’ve assembled the oldest roster in the NBA this season.

Golden State and the Clippers have roughly the same problem as the Lakers. They have some aging star power and I think the rest of the teams in the West have surpassed them. I have the Warriors finishing fifth because they have a little bit more reliable scoring depth with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and I think James Wiseman could take a big step forward in his second year. When Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined the Clippers in 2019, we all expected them to be one of the top teams in the West and compete for the championship. The problem is that the Clippers haven’t been able to do that. In fact, they haven’t even really sniffed the Finals. Until I see it happen, I don’t think the Clippers are going to ever put it together, and I definitely don’t think it’ll happen with Tyronn Lue as the their head coach.

Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans are all about the same team. They each have at least one star player, but not much else to help him out. The Trail Blazers easily have the best player of these three teams in Damian Lillard, and maybe even the best No. 2 option in C.J. McCollum. I feel pretty confident Portland will finish higher than Memphis and New Orleans. I think the Pelicans will be a little improved from last year’s team that finished 11th in the conference. They have two quality scoring options in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Entering his third year, Williamson might be able to improve on his 27 points per game from last year. The Pelicans aren’t a very good defensive team, though, and I don’t think they’ll be much better. The Grizzlies have one of the best young players in the NBA in Ja Morant, who has averaged 18.4 points per game the last two seasons, but I don’t think they have any reliable scoring outside of him. Similar to last year, I think Morant is good enough to get Memphis to the play-in tournament, but it doesn’t have what it takes to make a deep run.

2022 NBA Finals

Phoenix vs. Brooklyn

I really want to pick Phoenix to win it all, but I’m just not sure it’s going to have enough if it comes across Brooklyn in the Finals. If healthy, I think the Nets are the best team in basketball. They just have too much star power with Durant, Irving, James Harden, Joe Harris, Blake Griffin, and LaMarcus Aldridge. I think they should be considered the favorites to win it all this year, especially if Irving comes back in the fold. Even without him, I think the additions of Patty Mills and Paul Millsap ought to give Brooklyn sufficient depth to make a run at the title.

Prediction: Nets in six

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

2021 NBA postseason predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“I don’t wanna kill you. You complete me.”

– Joker, “The Dark Knight” (2008)

Tonight is the start of the NBA postseason. I’ll be honest, I don’t think I watched a single dribble of the NBA this year. That’s not going to stop me from doing predictions, though, because I enjoy doing them for every sport.

Similar to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the NBA postseason is going to be a little different than usual. Due to a shortened season because of the COVID-19 pandemic impacting last year, the NBA decided to incorporate a “play-in tournament” between the No. 7-10 teams in each conference. Basically, the No. 7 and No. 8 team in each conference will play one game and the winner will officially clinch the No. 7 seed, meanwhile the No. 9 and No. 10 seed will play one game and the loser will be eliminated. Then, the loser of the No. 7/8 matchup and winner of the No. 9/10 matchup will play one game, with the winner officially clinching the No. 8 seed. Everything else about this NBA postseason will be like it usually would in a normal postseason.

Play-In Tournament:

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) reacts after his three point basket against the San Antonio Spurs in the third quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 Washington Wizards (34-38) vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics (36-36)

I know that Boston hasn’t exactly been trustworthy this season, but in a one-game playoff, I have to give the advantage to the Celtics. Washington’s defense is one of the worst in the NBA – ranking in the bottom three in points allowed per game and opponent field-goal percentage. Brad Stevens is a great offensive-minded head coach and I think he’ll create some mismatches for Boston.

Winner: Celtics

Indiana Pacers guard Caris LeVert (22) reacts after a three-point basket during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 Charlotte Hornets (33-39) vs. No. 9 Indiana Pacers (34-38)

Charlotte has been somewhat of a surprise this season. However, I’m just not sure the Hornets are quite cut out to win in the playoffs. When I was looking up stats, I was actually surprised by Indiana’s scoring depth. The Pacers have nine players who average of 10 points per game, and four players who average over 20 points per game. That kind of depth matters in the playoffs.

Winner: Pacers

Washington Wizards guard Russell Westbrook (4) celebrates with Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) against the Indiana Pacers in the third quarter at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

No. 9 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 8 Washington Wizards

I really want to go with Indiana to win this game. I like its scoring depth and it’s the better defensive team. If this was a seven-game series, I’d probably take the Pacers to win. However, Washington has the star power with Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. I’ve seen enough NBA to know that matters in the postseason. I like those guys to deliver in a one-game playoff.

Winner: Wizards

Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) moves the ball against the Charlotte Hornets during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 Golden State Warriors (39-33) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (42-30)

This is definitely the most intriguing matchup of the play-in games. It’s a shame it won’t be a seven-game series between LeBron James and Steph Curry. The Lakers haven’t quite lived up to expectations this season, but I know better than to doubt James in the playoffs. I just don’t think Golden State has enough to win this game outside of Curry.

Winner: Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) celebrates after scoring against the Los Angeles Clippers in the second quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10 San Antonio Spurs (33-39) vs. No. 9 Memphis Grizzlies (38-34)

It’s hard to doubt Gregg Popovich in the postseason. Again, though, I think star power means a lot in the NBA and Memphis has that advantage with Ja Morant. San Antonio isn’t a very good defensive team – ranking in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game. I also don’t think the Spurs have a point guard that can match up with Morant.

Winner: Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates with forward Draymond Green (23) against the Utah Jazz during the fourth quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 9 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 8 Golden State Warriors

I have to go with Golden State in this matchup. The Warriors will have the best player on the court in Steph Curry, the better head coach in Steve Kerr, and more playoff experience as a team. I feel like that’s a lot for Memphis to overcome. The Grizzlies have a bright future with Morant, but I don’t think they’re quite good enough to pull off the upset here.

Winner: Warriors

First Round:

Eastern Conference

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) dribbles the ball against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 Washington Wizards vs. No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers (49-23)

I’m having a hard time imagining Washington pull off an upset in this series. The Wizards have two All-Star guards, but they’re going to need more production and I just don’t think they’ll get it. Washington is also a horrible defensive team. Philadelphia has one of the best players in basketball in Joel Embiid and is a great defensive team. The 76ers should be able to move on to the second round.

Prediction: 76ers in five

Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks goes to the basket as Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets defends during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Sarah Stier/POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Atlanta Hawks (41-31) vs. No. 4 New York Knicks (41-31)

I feel foolish for thinking it, but I’m going to go with New York to win this series. The Knicks have been hot in recent weeks – winners of 17 of their last 23 games. I know that Atlanta has a star in Trae Young, but I doubt the Hawks’ depth. New York actually has good depth, with seven players averaging double figures, and is the best defensive team in the league – allowing just 104.7 points per game.

Prediction: Knicks in six

Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) drives for the basket against Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (22) in the first quarter at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

No. 6 Miami Heat (40-32) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks (46-26)

This ought to be a competitive series because I actually think Miami matches up very well with Milwaukee. Remember, the Heat knocked off the Bucks last postseason. Bam Adebayo could limit Giannis Antetokounmpo’s production. At the end of the day, though, I have to go with Milwaukee because it has the best player on the court in Antetokounmpo.

Prediction: Bucks in seven

Brooklyn Nets guard James Harden (13) and Boston Celtics forward Grant Williams (12) at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Brooklyn Nets (48-24)

As much as I respect Stevens, I don’t think Boston is any match for Brooklyn in this series. The Celtics haven’t shown me anything all season that they’re going to all of a sudden turn it on in the postseason. The Nets are the far superior team with all kinds of star power. I’m not sure Boston is going to be able to keep this series competitive.

Prediction: Nets in four

Western Conference

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) dunks the basketball against the Portland Trail Blazers during the first quarter at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

No. 8 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 1 Utah Jazz (52-20)

Even though Golden State is going to have the best player on the court in this series in Curry, I think it’s going to need to get more production from other players in order to win. Utah is not only a really good team, but it’s also very well-coached and excellent defensively. I the Jazz definitely have what it takes to win and advance to the second round.

Prediction: Jazz in five

Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) is defended by Portland Trail Blazers forward Robert Covington (23) as he drives to the basket in the first half of the game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Dallas Mavericks (42-30) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (47-25)

This will probably be the best series of all the first-round matchups. I think both of these teams are really talented and capable of making deep postseason runs. Both Dallas and the Clippers currently have some of the best players in the game and are excellent on the defensive end. Considering the Clippers will have home-court advantage, I have to give them the advantage.

Prediction: Clippers in seven

Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. (1) and Denver Nuggets guard Facundo Campazzo (7) shake hands after an early lead against the Charlotte Hornets during the first quarter at the Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers (42-30) vs. No. 3 Denver Nuggets (47-25)

In what should be a pretty competitive series, I’m going to give the advantage to Denver. First of all, I’ve gotten a sense that Damian Lillard isn’t “bought in” with Portland this season, considering his contract is up in a few weeks. I struggle to see the Trail Blazers being able to pull off an upset in this matchup because of that. The Nuggets are the better overall team and be able to win this series.

Prediction: Nuggets in six

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) goes to the basket in front of Oklahoma City Thunder center Isaiah Roby (22) during the first quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Phoenix Suns (51-21)

As much as I’d like to see Phoenix win this series and go on a deep postseason run, I think this is a very difficult matchup for it to win. The Lakers are the defending champions with the best player in the game. They feel like a sleeping giant. The Suns are a pretty young team outside of Chris Paul, so they lack playoff experience. In my opinion, this series has upset written all over it.

Prediction: Lakers in six

Second Round:

Eastern Conference

Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (25) dunks the ball against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the third quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 New York Knicks vs. No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers

This is when I see New York’s postseason run coming to an end. The Knicks are talented, but they’re very young and I’m just not sure they’re capable of pulling off an upset this round. Philadelphia is not only the better team, but it also has quite a bit of playoff experience. The 76ers are also a very good defensive team and seem poised to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Prediction: 76ers in five

Brooklyn Nets point guard Kyrie Irving (11) reacts during the third quarter against the Boston Celtics at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 2 Brooklyn Nets

Milwaukee might have the best player on the court in this series. I have doubts whether or not anyone else on the Bucks’ roster is going to be able to step up, though. In my opinion, Brooklyn is just too talented to lose this series. The Nets are loaded with star power. I think Milwaukee is going to have a hard time matching up with Brooklyn over the course of a seven-game series.

Prediction: Nets in five

Western Conference

Los Angeles Clippers guard Paul George (13) moves the ball against Denver Nuggets guard Facundo Campazzo (7) during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 1 Utah Jazz

Unfortunately, I think that Donovan Mitchell’s injury might come back to haunt Utah. It’s a shame because I actually thought the Jazz could make a deep postseason run before that. The Clippers have the length and ability to limit Mitchell’s production. If that happens, I have a hard time seeing anyone else on Utah’s roster being able to step up to defeat the Clippers.

Prediction: Clippers in six

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) during the first quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 3 Denver Nuggets

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lakers ended up winning this series. However, I have a hard time putting much trust in a team that has significantly underperformed. I also think it’s going to be hard for the Lakers to overcome not having home-court advantage in back-to-back series. Denver has the deeper roster and was more consistent in the regular season. I’m going to go with the Nuggets.

Prediction: Nuggets in seven

Eastern Conference Finals

Brooklyn Nets small forward Kevin Durant (7) reacts after a call by an official during the second quarter against the Atlanta Hawks at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Brooklyn Nets vs. No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia has been a really good team this season, but there’s no way I can pick against Brooklyn in this series. I’m having a hard time seeing where the 76ers have any mismatches to expose. Sure, Embiid is a better forward than anyone on the Nets’ roster, but Brooklyn can overcome his production with Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant.

Prediction: Nets in five

Western Conference Finals

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) controls the ball in the third quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 3 Denver Nuggets

I can’t really explain it, but I’m very high on Denver. I think the Nuggets have a roster capable of winning it all. It’ll take a lot, but it’s possible. Denver has a very deep team with star power in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. is a very above average player. It feels weird to say, but I have a hard time trusting this Clippers team. I’ll take Denver to win the West for the first time ever.

Prediction: Nuggets in six

2021 NBA Finals

No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 2 Brooklyn Nets

I feel like I’ve said it too many times in this post, but I can’t bring myself to pick against Brooklyn. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an NBA team as loaded as the Nets are this season. They have a plethora of both superstars and above average players. Denver is going to have a very difficult time keeping up in this series. This isn’t a very bold pick, but I think Brooklyn wins its first-ever NBA championship.

Prediction: Nets in six

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

NBA, NHL need to do away with draft lotteries

Movie quote of the day:

“Everyone should hold a gun at least a couple times.”

– Officer Michaels, “Superbad” (2007)

A general view of the stage prior to the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery at the Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

The recent National Basketball Association and National Hockey League’s draft lotteries reminded me of something that I’ve felt passionately about for years and haven’t written about it on this blog – draft lotteries are stupid. Let’s be honest, the draft lotteries only exist because they’re unpredictable and people are willing to tune in and watch what unfolds. As much as people probably won’t admit it, they want to see dysfunction – particularly sports fans. That’s what makes headlines, gets clicks, and creates talking points. Personally, I think that’s the only reason why the NBA and NHL have draft lotteries. They know that they’ll never get the viewership numbers that the National Football League gets with its draft. So what’s the best way for the NBA and NHL to try and get viewers? By creating dysfunction. People want to laugh at a team like the New York Knicks – who haven’t had the best luck in the lottery in recent years – fail to get the No. 1 pick. The people also love to see a borderline playoff team like the New York Rangers – I know that they technically made the playoffs this year, but they probably wouldn’t have in a normal season – get lucky and win the No. 1 pick.

In my opinion, the NBA and NHL need to get rid of the draft lottery system. For starters, I don’t see what’s fair about only the teams that don’t make the playoffs being eligible for the No. 1 overall pick in their respected drafts. If there’s going to be a lottery, I feel like the playoff teams and league champions should also be eligible for the No. 1 pick. If the back half of the NBA and NHL’s draft order is currently determined by reverse order of overall record – like the way the NFL and Major League Baseball determine their draft orders – then they should do it for their entire draft order. To truly understand how screwed up the draft lottery concept is, I went back five years and collected some data.

Zion Williamson (Duke) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number one overall pick to the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

2016: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia 76ers (10-72)
2. Los Angeles Lakers – Los Angeles Lakers (17-65)
3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) – Brooklyn Nets (21-61)
4. Phoenix Suns – Phoenix Suns (23-59)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves – Minnesota Timberwolves (29-53)
6. New Orleans Pelicans – New Orleans Pelicans (30-52)
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York) – New York Knicks (32-50)
8. Sacramento Kings – Milwaukee Bucks (33-49)
9. Toronto Raptors (from Denver via New York) – Denver Nuggets (33-49)
10. Milwaukee Bucks – Sacramento Kings (33-49)
11. Orlando Magic (from Oklahoma City) – Orlando Magic (35-47)
12. Utah Jazz – Utah Jazz (40-42)
13. Phoenix Suns – Washington Wizards (41-41)
14. Chicago Bulls – Chicago Bulls (42-40)

2017: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Philadelphia 76ers (from Brooklyn via Boston) – Brooklyn Nets (20-62)
2. Los Angeles Lakers – Phoenix Suns (24-58)
3. Boston Celtics (from Sacramento via Philadelphia) – Los Angeles Lakers (26-56)
4. Phoenix Suns – Philadelphia 76ers (28-54)
5. Sacramento Kings (from Philadelphia) – Orlando Magic (29-53)
6. Orlando Magic – Minnesota Timberwolves (31-51)
7. Minnesota Timberwolves – New York Knicks (31-51)
8. New York Knicks – Sacramento Kings (32-50)
9. Dallas Mavericks – Dallas Mavericks (33-49)
10. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans) – New Orleans Pelicans (34-48)
11. Charlotte Hornets – Charlotte Hornets (36-46)
12. Detroit Pistons – Detroit Pistons (37-45)
13. Denver Nuggets – Denver Nuggets (40-42)
14. Miami Heat – Miami Heat (41-41)

2018: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Phoenix Suns – Phoenix Suns (21-61)
2. Sacramento Kings – Memphis Grizzlies (22-60)
3. Atlanta Hawks – Atlanta Hawks (24-58)
4. Memphis Grizzlies – Dallas Mavericks (24-58)
5. Dallas Mavericks – Orlando Magic (25-57)
6. Orlando Magic – Chicago Bulls (27-55)
7. Chicago Bulls – Sacramento Kings (27-55)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Brooklyn via Boston) – Brooklyn Nets (28-54)
9. New York Knicks – New York Knicks (29-53)
10. Philadelphia 76ers (from Los Angeles Lakers via Phoenix) – Los Angeles Lakers (35-47)
11. Charlotte Hornets – Charlotte Hornets (36-46)
12. Los Angeles Clippers (from Detroit) – Detroit Pistons (39-43)
13. Los Angeles Clippers – Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
14. Denver Nuggets – Denver Nuggets (46-36)

2019: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. New Orleans Pelicans – New York Knicks (17-65)
2. Memphis Grizzlies – Phoenix Suns (19-63)
3. New York Knicks – Cleveland Cavaliers (19-63)
4. Los Angeles Lakers – Chicago Bulls (22-60)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers – Atlanta Hawks (29-53)
6. Phoenix Suns – Washington Wizards (32-50)
7. Chicago Bulls – Dallas Mavericks (33-49)
8. Atlanta Hawks – New Orleans Pelicans (33-49)
9. Washington Wizards – Memphis Grizzlies (33-49)
10. Atlanta Hawks (from Dallas) – Minnesota Timberwolves (36-46)
11. Minnesota Timberwolves – Los Angeles Lakers (37-45)
12. Charlotte Hornets – Miami Heat (39-43)
13. Miami Heat – Charlotte Hornets (39-43)
14. Boston Celtics (from Sacramento via Philadelphia) – Sacramento Kings (39-43)

2020: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Minnesota Timberwolves – Golden State Warriors (15-50)
2. Golden State Warriors – Cleveland Cavaliers (19-46)
3. Charlotte Hornets – Minnesota Timberwolves (19-45)
4. Chicago Bulls – Atlanta Hawks (20-47)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers – Detroit Pistons (20-46)
6. Atlanta Hawks – New York Knicks (21-45)
7. Detroit Pistons – Chicago Bulls (22-43)
8. New York Knicks – Washington Wizards (25-47)
9. Washington Wizards – Charlotte Hornets (23-42)
10. Phoenix Suns – New Orleans Pelicans (30-42)
11. San Antonio Spurs – Sacramento Kings (31-41)
12. Sacramento Kings – San Antonio Spurs (32-39)
13. New Orleans Pelicans – Phoenix Suns (34-39)
14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis) – Memphis Grizzlies (34-39)

The data that I found the last five years regarding the NBA draft lottery showed that even if a team finishes in the bottom five in the league’s standings, its odds to get a top-five pick aren’t as good as one would think. Before I get into it, I want to point out just how important having a top-five pick is in the NBA. It’s my theory that in an average year – out of 60 total draft picks – there are only maybe three to five prospects that are truly ready to play at a high level. That’s why getting a top-five draft pick is so valuable because it greatly increases a team’s chances of getting one of those top players that can turn a franchise around. In my research, though, I found that in the last five years just 18 teams that finished in the bottom five of the league’s standings ended up getting a top-five draft pick, and only eight times did one of those teams get the draft pick with the value that equaled where it finished the standings. What that means for future reference is that, going off the last five years, a team that finishes in the bottom five of the league’s standings has just a 72% chance of getting a top-five draft pick and just a 32% chance of getting the draft value that equals where that team finished in the league’s standings. You think that’s bad? Take a look at the NHL.

Jack Hughes puts on a team jersey after being selected as the number one overall pick to the New Jersey Devils in the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

2016: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto Maple Leafs (29-42-11; 69 points)
2. Winnipeg Jets – Edmonton Oilers (31-43-8; 70)
3. Columbus Blue Jackets – Vancouver Canucks (31-38-13; 75)
4. Edmonton Oilers – Columbus Blue Jackets (34-40-8; 76)
5. Vancouver Canucks – Calgary Flames (35-40-7; 77)
6. Calgary Flames – Winnipeg Jets (35-39-8; 78)
7. Arizona Coyotes – Arizona Coyotes (35-39-8; 78)
8. Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo Sabres (35-36-11; 81)
9. Montreal Canadiens – Montreal Canadiens (38-38-6; 82)
10. Colorado Avalanche – Colorado Avalanche (39-39-4; 82)
11. New Jersey Devils – New Jersey Devils (38-36-8; 84)
12. Ottawa Senators – Ottawa Senators (38-35-9; 85)
13. Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina Hurricanes (35-31-16; 86)
14. Boston Bruins – Boston Bruins (42-31-9; 93)

2017: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. New Jersey Devils – Colorado Avalanche (22-56-4; 48)
2. Philadelphia Flyers – Vancouver Canucks (30-43-9; 69)
3. Dallas Stars – Arizona Coyotes (30-42-10; 70)
4. Colorado Avalanche – New Jersey Devils (28-40-14; 70)
5. Vancouver Canucks – Buffalo Sabres (33-37-12; 78)
6. Vegas Golden Knights
7. New York Rangers (from Arizona) – Detroit Red Wings (33-36-13; 79)
8. Buffalo Sabres – Dallas Stars (34-37-11; 79)
9. Detroit Red Wings – Florida Panthers (35-36-11; 81)
10. Florida Panthers – Los Angeles Kings (39-35-8; 86)
11. Los Angeles Kings – Carolina Hurricanes (36-31-15; 87)
12. Carolina Hurricanes – Winnipeg Jets (40-35-7; 87)
13. Vegas Golden Knights (from Winnipeg) – Philadelphia Flyers (39-33-10; 88)
14. Tampa Bay Lightning – Tampa Bay Lightning (42-30-10; 94)
15. Vegas Golden Knights (from New York Islanders) – New York Islanders (41-29-12; 94)

2018: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo Sabres (25-45-12; 62)
2. Carolina Hurricanes – Ottawa Senators (28-43-11; 67)
3. Montreal Canadiens – Arizona Coyotes (29-41-12; 70)
4. Ottawa Senators – Montreal Canadiens (29-40-13; 71)
5. Arizona Coyotes – Detroit Red Wings (30-39-13; 73)
6. Detroit Red Wings – Vancouver Canucks (31-40-11; 73)
7. Vancouver Canucks – Chicago Blackhawks (33-39-10; 76)
8. Chicago Blackhawks – New York Rangers (34-39-9; 77)
9. New York Rangers – Edmonton Oilers (36-40-6; 78)
10. Edmonton Oilers – New York Islanders (35-37-10; 80)
11. New York Islanders – Carolina Hurricanes (36-35-11; 83)
12. New York Islanders (from Calgary) – Calgary Flames (37-35-10; 84)
13. Dallas Stars – Dallas Stars (42-32-8; 92)
14. Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis) – St. Louis Blues (44-32-6; 94)
15. Florida Panthers – Florida Panthers (44-30-8; 96)

2019: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. New Jersey Devils – Ottawa Senators (29-47-6; 64)
2. New York Rangers – Los Angeles Kings (31-42-9; 71)
3. Chicago Blackhawks – New Jersey Devils (31-41-10; 72)
4. Colorado Avalanche (from Ottawa) – Detroit Red Wings (32-40-10; 74)
5. Los Angeles Kings – Buffalo Sabres (33-39-10; 76)
6. Detroit Red Wings – New York Rangers (32-36-14; 78)
7. Buffalo Sabres – Edmonton Oilers (35-38-9; 79)
8. Edmonton Oilers – Anaheim Ducks (35-37-10; 80)
9. Anaheim Ducks – Vancouver Canucks (35-36-11; 81)
10. Vancouver Canucks – Philadelphia Flyers (37-37-8; 82)
11. Philadelphia Flyers – Minnesota Wild (36-36-9; 83)
12. Minnesota Wild – Chicago Blackhawks (36-34-12; 84)
13. Florida Panthers – Florida Panthers (36-32-14; 86)
14. Arizona Coyotes – Arizona Coyotes (39-35-8; 86)
15. Montreal Canadiens – Montreal Canadiens (44-30-8; 96)

2020: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. New York Rangers – Detroit Red Wings (17-54-5; 39)
2. Los Angeles Kings – Ottawa Senators (25-46-12; 62)
3. Ottawa Senators (from San Jose) – San Jose Sharks (29-41-5; 63)
4. Detroit Red Wings – Los Angeles Kings (29-41-6; 64)
5. Ottawa Senators – Anaheim Ducks (29-42-9; 67)
6. Anaheim Ducks – New Jersey Devils (28-41-12; 68)
7. New Jersey Devils – Buffalo Sabres (30-39-8; 68)
8. Buffalo Sabres – Montreal Canadiens (31-40-9; 71)
9. Minnesota Wild – Chicago Blackhawks (32-38-8; 72)
10. Winnipeg Jets – Arizona Coyotes (33-37-8; 74)
11. Nashville Predators – Minnesota Wild (35-34-7; 77)
12. Florida Panthers – Nashville Predators (35-34-8; 78)
13. Carolina Hurricanes (from Toronto) – Florida Panthers (35-34-8; 78)
14. Edmonton Oilers – Vancouver Canucks (36-33-6; 78)
15. Pittsburgh Penguins – Calgary Flames (36-34-7; 79)

I won’t sit here and argue that there’s an average of just three to five players in a given NHL draft that are ready to play at a high level. That’s simply not true, but there are just a handful of players that can provide immediate quality support to the team that drafted them. Those players are almost exclusively drafted within the first five picks on a yearly basis, though, and the rest are sent to the team’s minor league affiliate to develop for a few years. In my research, I found that the NHL draft lottery has been much worse to the teams that have finished in the bottom five of the league’s standings than the ones in the NBA. In the last five years, the teams that finished in the bottom five of the league’s standings have a 72% chance of getting a top-five draft pick – that number was just 70% prior to this year – and only a 12% chance of getting the draft value that equaled where that team finished in the standings.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman speaks before the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

In conclusion:

I just can’t bring myself to wrap my brain around the concept of a draft lottery. I can kind of understand it from the standpoint that it somewhat helps avoid teams tanking. I’ll agree that tanking isn’t a good look for any professional sports league. However, I just don’t see how the lottery is fair to the cellar dwellers that are in the draft lottery on a yearly basis. I think the bad teams should be able to draft the best players every year without pure luck and chance getting in the way. I don’t like seeing borderline playoff teams get lucky because their lottery ball wasn’t selected at random until later in the evening. I’ll concede that it does make the draft process more compelling, but I don’t like leaving something as monumental as drafting a player that can turn the fate of an organization’s future around up to chance. I don’t think it’s fair that those borderline playoff teams can take that opportunity from the cellar dwellers. In my opinion, I don’t think it creates parity whatsoever. In my time in grad school, I took a class about finance, and came to the conclusion that professional sports leagues with the most parity usually make the most revenue. According to Ultimate Corporate League, the NFL collects over $13 billion, MLB accrues $9.5 billion, and the English Premier League makes $5.3 billion in revenue. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that those leagues either have the most parity, and also make the most money at the same time. In comparison, the NBA ranks fourth behind those leagues with $4.8 billion, the NHL is fifth with $3.7 billion, and the Bundesliga is sixth with $2.8 billion. I think the best way to get more parity and create more revenue in a professional sports league is by spreading out the talent and giving every team a better chance of winning, and I don’t think a draft lottery is the way to do that.

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter

2018 NBA postseason predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“When I was your age, they would say, we could become cops, or criminals. Today, what I’m saying to you is this: When you’re facing a loaded gun, what’s the difference?”

– Francis “Frank” Costello, “The Departed” (2006)

The NBA postseason officially starts tomorrow. This is a time of year that I’ve always enjoyed since I was a kid. I think the thing that makes the NBA postseason unique is that you throw the stats out the window because more than likely the team with the better player on the court is going to always win. There are some first-round matchups this year that I find intriguing – Toronto-Washington, Philadelphia-Miami, Boston-Milwaukee, Houston-Minnesota, Portland-New Orleans, and Oklahoma City-Utah. I think there might even be an upset or two in the first round – something that’s rare for the NBA – but, as always, the championship is going to come down to three or four teams. That’s not going to stop me from releasing my postseason predictions though.

Eastern Conference standings:
1. Toronto Raptors (59-23)
2. Boston Celtics (55-27)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (52-30)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32)
5. Indiana Pacers (48-34)
6. Miami Heat (44-38)
7. Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)
8. Washington Wizards (43-39)

Western Conference standings:
1. Houston Rockets (65-17)
2. Golden State Warriors (58-24)
3. Portland Trail Blazers (49-33)
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (48-34)
5. Utah Jazz (48-34)
6. New Orleans Pelicans (48-34)
7. San Antonio Spurs (47-35)
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (47-35)

First round:

Eastern Conference

Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) shoots for a basket against the Denver Nuggets in the second half at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 8 Washington Wizards

I actually feel like this could end up being a competitive series. It’s a guard-driven league and both teams have excellent guards with Kyle Lowry/DeMar DeRozan for Toronto and John Wall/Bradley Beal for Washington. Both teams are pretty much even offensively because of that. Toronto has been the better team this season, but Washington is no stranger to the postseason – having made it three of the last four years. I’m going to give the edge to Toronto though. The Raptors are top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency, whereas Washington is No. 15. Toronto also has more size and is a better rebounding team. I think the Wizards make it somewhat interesting, but Toronto should advance.

Prediction: Raptors in six

Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) reacts in the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Indiana Pacers

Once again, Cleveland underperforms in the regular season and is one of the worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency. I’ve fallen for this trick before and picked against LeBron James in the postseason a few years ago. After I was proven wrong and looked like a fool, I swore I would never do it again and there will be no change this year. The Cavaliers always find a way to kick it in gear when the postseason starts and actually finished the regular season strong – with a record of 11-3 in their last 14 games. Bottom line, in order to beat Cleveland, you have to prevent James from scoring too many points and I don’t think the Pacers have anyone on their roster that can guard him.

Prediction: Cavaliers in four

Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (25) passes the ball to forward Ersan Ilyasova (not pictured) during the second quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Miami Heat

A part of me is a little worrisome about the 76ers though because of their youth. Miami has more playoff experience on its roster, including a better head coach in Erik Spoelstra. I’m just not sure Miami has what it takes to upend the 76ers right now though. Philadelphia has been on a tear in recent weeks – winners of 16 in a row – Ben Simmons is playing out of his mind, Markelle Fultz has finally got going, and Joel Embiid could be healthy in time for this series. The Heat have a slight advantage with their backcourt in Goran Tragic and Dwyane Wade, but they still don’t have anyone that can guard Simmons, which is a huge disadvantage. Philadelphia is more athletic and the better defensive team. I like the 76ers to move on, but I think this series will go the distance.

Prediction: 76ers in seven

Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens looks on during the second half of their 112-106 loss to the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks

Generally, my rule for the NBA postseason is to pick whichever team has the better player on its roster. Since Boston will be without Kyrie Irving, I have to give that advantage to Milwaukee and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Even though Boston is one of the league’s best in defensive efficiency, it doesn’t have anyone on its roster that will be able to defend Antetokounmpo over the course of a series. The Celtics have a good run this season and they arguably have a deeper roster than Milwaukee, but this team isn’t going anywhere without Irving in the starting lineup. I hate picking against Brad Stevens, but since Milwaukee has guys like Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Eric Bledsoe, I’ll take the Bucks to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Bucks in six

Western Conference

Houston Rockets guard Chris Paul (3) handles the ball against the Washington Wizards during the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota might end up being a tricky No. 8 seed to face. The Timberwolves are talented and have a coach with playoff experience. The only reason they’re in this position is because of injuries, they would’ve been a higher seed had Jimmy Butler stayed healthy. Now that Butler is back, I think Minnesota could be a team to watch. Houston has the clear edge in the backcourt with Chris Paul and James Harden, but Minnesota has a player that the Rockets will not be able to guard in Karl-Anthony Townes, and a wing that could be trouble in Andrew Wiggins. I think the Timberwolves keep this series fairly competitive, but they’re still very young and Houston has been playing too well this season.

Prediction: Rockets in five

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) brings the ball up the court against the Golden State Warriors during the third quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz

This is probably the biggest coin flip of all the first round matchups. On paper, Oklahoma City is far and away the better team. The Thunder have three great players in Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, and even Steven Adams is a solid fourth option. The problem is that Oklahoma City hasn’t been able to piece that talent together this season. Utah has been a surprisingly good team throughout the year and made the playoffs when no one (including myself) thought it would. The Jazz are probably the better team, but they lack the star players and are pretty young – their best player, and leading scorer, being a rookie. Even though OKC’s talent hasn’t quite come together this season, I’m giving the Thunder a very slight edge in this series. They have playoff experience and a pretty good coach in Billy Donovan, but the star players are a huge advantage in the postseason.

Prediction: Thunder in seven

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts in the second half against the LA Clippers at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans

I think this is another series that could end up being competitive. New Orleans will have the better player on the court in this series in Anthony Davis and I don’t think Portland has anyone on its roster that will be able to guard him. However, Davis is all the Pelicans have. New Orleans doesn’t have the guards to match up with Portland’s backcourt. Davis will likely get his, but in today’s NBA, it’s all about guard play and I expect Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to put up big numbers in this matchup. The Trail Blazers are also a good defensive team with a much better head coach and will have home-court advantage. I think too much is going against the Pelicans in this series.

Prediction: Trail Blazers in six

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (22) winks at the crowd during a break in the action against the Denver Nuggets in the first quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs

Since the 2015-2016 season, Golden State has beat San Antonio 11 times in 15 meetings – and one of those losses was this season when Golden State was banged up. San Antonio just doesn’t match up with Golden State at all. Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills won’t be able to guard Steph Curry (who might miss this series due to injury) and Klay Thompson in the backcourt, and Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili definitely won’t be able to because they’re too old. If Kawhi Leonard were playing, that would at least give the Spurs someone that could guard Kevin Durant, but even then that wouldn’t be enough. However, it’s unclear if Leonard is even going to play and I’m struggling to see San Antonio win a single game because of that.

Prediction: Warriors in four

Second round:

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers center Kevin Love (0) rebounds in the first quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Like I said above, the way to defeat Cleveland is to have someone that can guard LeBron James and prevent him from scoring too many baskets. Toronto doesn’t have anyone on its roster that will be able to do that, so James is going to put up big numbers in this series. I don’t think Cleveland will get a sweep though. The Raptors have an advantage in the backcourt with their guards, so I think because of that they will manage to squeak out a win in Toronto, but the Cavaliers should still end this series quickly.

Prediction: Cavaliers in five

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dribbles up court against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks

It’s hard for me to fathom a team as young as Philadelphia getting past the second round, but I just can’t buy into Milwaukee as the team that’s going to knock off the 76ers – just look at Wednesday night when Philadelphia beat Milwaukee by 35 points and had 100 points before the fourth quarter. Sure, the Bucks have a lot of talent, but they haven’t been able to do much with it. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a huge mismatch for the 76ers and he’ll pad his stats in this series, but I’m going to take Philadelphia to advance anyway. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are also huge mismatches for Milwaukee and I don’t the Bucks have anyone that can guard those two through an entire series.

Prediction: 76ers in six

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Paul George (13) passes off the ball against the Toronto Raptors at the Air Canada Centre. Oklahoma City defeated Toronto. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder

Honestly, considering how poorly Oklahoma City has played at times this season, I think I’m being generous picking the Thunder to get this far in the postseason. There’s too many conflicting personalities in that locker room and I don’t see OKC getting any farther than the second round. Houston has been exceptional all season. The Rockets have too much depth, the ability to score quickly, a better head coach, and home-court advantage. I don’t think this series will bode well for the Thunder.

Prediction: Rockets in five

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) celebrates against the Los Angeles Clippers during the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers

Portland will be a tougher opponent for Golden State than San Antonio, but I still don’t expect the Trail Blazers to make this a very competitive series. Even though they have two pretty good guards that should be able to guard the Splash Brothers, they don’t have anyone that will be able to slow down Kevin Durant or Draymond Green – which will ultimately decide the series. I’ll give Portland a win at home, but the Warriors have too much talent and should have no problems advancing to the next round.

Prediction: Warriors in five

Conference finals:

Eastern Conference Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) dunks the ball against the New York Knicks during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

If it comes down to these two teams in the Eastern Conference Finals, I’ll be cheering like hell for the young guys in Philadelphia. Watching Ben Simmons and LeBron James square off would be intriguing. However, the 76ers have too much youth and will be facing a buzz saw in Cleveland. Philadelphia doesn’t have anyone that can guard James and the Cavaliers have too many veterans with a lot of playoff experience. I want to say that the 76ers could win at least one game in this series, but I don’t see it happening. The East always runs through whichever team James plays for and Cleveland has the upper hand in almost every category.

Prediction: Cavaliers in four

Western Conference Finals

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) gestures after scoring during the second quarter against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 2 Golden State Warriors

My head says to take Houston because the Rockets have been so good this season and Golden State is limping into the playoffs. However, my gut says to take Golden State. When I look at this matchup, I see two teams that are about equal offensively. That’s why I think this series is going to come down to defense, which I give the advantage to the Warriors. I realize that Houston is better in terms of defensive efficiency, but Golden State holds opponents to shoot 44.7 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from 3-point range – ranking in the top 10 in both categories. Plus, I don’t trust any team that has Mike D’Antoni and James Harden because neither puts much of an emphasis on defense. Houston might be able to keep Steph Curry in check, but I don’t think the Rockets have a player that can guard Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green over the course of a series. The Warriors just have too much star power.

Prediction: Warriors in six

2018 NBA Finals

No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

That’s right, I think the NBA Finals is going to come down to Cleveland and Golden State for a fourth-consecutive season – probably not that surprising. These have been the two consistent teams in the NBA the last few years. I don’t expect a different result from last year though. I think the Warriors will win this series and it won’t be that competitive. Cleveland doesn’t match up well with Golden State. The Cavaliers don’t have the backcourt anymore to keep up with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, LeBron James is a pretty good defender but he can’t guard Kevin Durant, Kevin Love is no match for Draymond Green, and I don’t think they have anyone that can provide a spark off the bench. This will probably be another series where James has to win this series by himself to have a chance and he’ll put up ridiculous stats, but in the end, it’ll be no match for Golden State’s team chemistry and offensive firepower. I think the Warriors cruise to win their third title in four years.

Prediction: Warriors in five
Finals MVP: Kevin Durant

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

2017-2018 NBA season predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Our survival instinct is our single-greatest source of inspiration.”

– Dr. Mann, “Interstellar” (2014)

I’ll be honest, I’m kind of looking forward to the NBA regular season. There were a lot of moves this offseason and I really want to see how those moves play out this season – especially in regards to my Boston Celtics. Honestly, predicting the NBA is probably my least favorite thing to do thought because it’s so predictable. There are about 12 teams that I would consider “locks” to make the playoffs, but it’s still fun to talk about. I’ll start with my predicted winners for the major awards, and then my predictions for the three division winners and the other five teams in each conference that I like to make the playoffs.

Major award winners prediction:

Most Valuable Player: SG James Harden, Houston
Defensive Player of the Year: PF Draymond Green, Golden State
Sixth Man of the Year: SG Jamal Crawford, Minnesota
Rookie of the Year: PG Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers

Eastern Conference division winners:

Boston Celtics guard Kyrie Irving (11) shoots over Charlotte Hornets center Dwight Howard (12) during the first half of a preseason game at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Atlantic – Boston Celtics
2016-2017 record: 53-29
Key additions: PG Kyrie Irving, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Marcus Morris
Key departures: PG Isaiah Thomas, SG Avery Bradley, SF/PF Jae Crowder, C Kelly Olynyk, PF Amir Johnson
2017 draft class: SF Jayson Tatum (Round: 1 Pick: 3), PF Semi Ojeleye (Round: 2 Pick: 37), SG Kadeem Allen (Round: 2 Pick: 53), SG Jabari Bird (Round: 2 Pick: 56)
2016-2017 points per game: 108 (No. 7)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .454 (No. 16)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .359 (No. 14)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.6 (No. 8)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 105.4 (No. 15)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .450 (No. 9)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .332 (No. 2)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.5 (No. 12)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 42 (No. 26)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.8 (No. 21)

Boston is coming off a season where the Celtics won 53 games and got the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics did trade away All-Star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but added Kyrie Irving to replace him – which will be an improvement. Al Horford didn’t turn out to be the player the Celtics expected when they signed him last year, but he’s still a solid veteran presence. They also picked up Gordon Hayward through free agency and drafted Jayson Tatum to help with scoring. This is still a young team that is on the rise and has an excellent young head coach in Brad Stevens. Boston should be able to improve in the win column this season, but losing key defensive pieces like Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Kelly Olynyk is going to hurt.

Prediction: 58-24 (second in the East)

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) drives to the basket against Chicago Bulls guard Paul Zipser (16) during the first half at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Central – Cleveland Cavaliers
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Key additions: PG Isaiah Thomas, PF/SF Jeff Green, PG Derrick Rose, SF/PF Jae Crowder, SG Dwyane Wade
Key departures: PG Kyrie Irving
2017 draft class: N/A
2016-2017 points per game: 110.3 (No. 4)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .470 (No. 5)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .384 (No. 2)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 110.9 (No. 3)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 107.2 (No. 20)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .458 (No. 16)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .361 (No. 18)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 108 (No. 22)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.8 (No. 12)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +1.2 (No. 6)

Despite losing Kyrie Irving, this is still the top team in the East. LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Isaiah Thomas is still a very good “Big Three.” There’s also still capable veterans like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert to play secondary roles on Cleveland’s roster. Plus, the additions of Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder, Derrick Rose, and Jeff Green give this team sufficient depth that the Cavaliers were missing last season.

Prediction: 60-22 (first in the East)

Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) reacts during the second half against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Southeast – Washington Wizards
2016-2017 record: 49-33
Key additions: SG Jodie Meeks, PG Tim Frazier
Key departures: SF/PF Bojan Bogdanovic, PG Trey Burke, PG Brandon Jennings
2017 draft class: N/A
2016-2017 points per game: 109.2 (No. 5)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .475 (No. 3)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .372 (No. 8)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.5 (No. 9)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 107.4 (No. 21)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .466 (No. 24)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .364 (No. 19)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.9 (No. 20)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 42.9 (No. 22)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -1.3 (No. 27)

After Cleveland and Boston, the rest of my playoff teams in the East are kind of in a weird purgatory where they’re decent, but won’t contend for a championship and aren’t bad enough to be in the draft lottery. One of those teams on that list is Washington. I like the Wizards to win the Southeast division mostly because there’s no All-Stars in that division that can compete with Washington’s roster that consists of John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr., Jodie Meeks, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Marcin Gortat. I think 50 wins is fair for this team, but I don’t give Washington much of a chance to get past the second round in the playoffs.

Prediction: 50-32 (fourth in the East)

Other playoff teams in the East:

Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) dribbles as he is guarded by Detroit Pistons forward Reggie Bullock (25) at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Raptors
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Key additions: SG/SF C.J. Miles
Key departures: PF Patrick Patterson, SF DeMarre Carroll, SF P.J. Tucker
2017 draft class: SF/PF OG Anunoby (Round: 1 Pick: 23)
2016-2017 points per game: 106.9 (No. 10)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .464 (No. 11)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .363 (No. 13)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 109.8 (No. 6)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 102.6 (No. 8)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .449 (No. 6)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .354 (No. 11)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 104.9 (No. 8)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.3 (No. 18)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -2.2 (No. 29)

I think Toronto is the biggest threat to Cleveland and Boston in the East. It’s a guard-driven league and the Raptors have two really good ones in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan – both averaged a combined 49.7 points per game last year. However, outside of Serge Ibaka, there’s not much else on Toronto’s roster. The Raptors lack depth – which is going to hurt in the playoffs when they’re trying to compete in the East because both Cleveland and Boston have depth. Having Lowry, DeRozan, and Ibaka is still a good enough trio to get to 50 wins, especially in the East, and I think if this team gets insanely hot or makes a good trade, Toronto is capable of going on a deep run in the postseason.

Prediction: 51-31 (third in the East)

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) brings the ball up court against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA preseason game at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Milwaukee Bucks
2016-2017 record: 42-40
Key additions: N/A
Key departures: N/A
2017 draft class: PF D.J. Wilson (Round: 1 Pick: 17)
2016-2017 points per game: 103.6 (No. 20)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .474 (No. 4)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 106.9 (No. 13)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .370 (No. 10)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 103.8 (No. 9)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .458 (No. 17)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .353 (No. 9)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.4 (No. 17)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 40.4 (No. 29)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.6 (No. 20)

If Jabari Parker can stay healthy – who only played 51 games last year and was averaging 20.1 points per game – I really like Milwaukee to get to 50 wins and potentially wreak some havoc in the postseason. Think about it, the Bucks already have, in my opinion, a perennial All-Star in Giannis Antetokounmpo, good veterans like Khris Middleton and Greg Monroe, and a point guard with a very bright future in Malcolm Brogdon – who was NBA Rookie of the Year last season. Milwaukee also has a good coach with Jason Kidd. However, Parker has struggled to stay healthy since he entered the NBA, and I’m not crazy about the depth for the Bucks.

Prediction: 48-34 (fifth in the East)

Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) looks on against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Pistons
2016-2017 record: 37-45
Key additions: SG Avery Bradley, PG/SG Langston Galloway, PF Anthony Tolliver
Key departures: SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, PF Marcus Morris
2017 draft class: SG Luke Kennard (Round: 1 Pick: 12)
2016-2017 points per game: 101.3 (No. 26)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .449 (No. 22)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .330 (No. 28)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 103.3 (No. 25)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 102.5 (No. 7)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .460 (No. 20)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .366 (No. 21)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.3 (No. 11)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 45.7 (No. 4)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.8 (No. 21)

Detroit is an odd team. The Pistons have a deep roster that is filled with just good veterans like Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond, and Reggie Jackson. There’s no real All-Star though on this roster. The addition of Avery Bradley is probably an improvement after the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and he provides a very good defensive presence. This is a young team with a good coach in Stan Van Gundy, and I look forward to watching this team grow in the coming years. However, I think losing Marcus Morris is going to hurt more than people think – he averaged 14 points and 4.6 rebound per game last year.

Prediction: 45-37 (sixth in the East)

Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) drives on Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42) during the first half of a preseason game at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Charlotte Hornets
2016-2017 record: 36-46
Key additions: C Dwight Howard, PG Michael Carter-Williams
Key departures: C/PF Miles Plumlee, SG/SF Marco Belinelli,
2017 draft class: SG Malik Monk (Round: 1 Pick: 11), SG Dwayne Bacon (Round: 2 Pick: 40)
2016-2017 points per game: 104.9 (No. 16)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .442 (No. 26)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .351 (No. 18)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 106.4 (No. 14)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 104.7 (No. 13)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .456 (No. 15)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .369 (No. 25)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.1 (No. 14)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.6 (No. 15)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -1.4 (No. 28)

Charlotte made a lot of moves that I like in the offseason – adding Dwight Howard, Michael Carter-Williams, and drafting Malik Monk. The Hornets have an All-Star in Kemba Walker and already have good depth with Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I would like Charlotte to win more games but Howard can be a head case at times and, even though I like Monk’s future in the league, relying on rookies to fill large roles can be a let down in the NBA.

Prediction: 42-40 (seventh in the East)

Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra reacts to play during the second half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Sprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Heat
2016-2017 record: 41-41
Key additions: C Kelly Olynyk, C A.J. Hammons
Key departures: PF Chris Bosh, PF Josh McRoberts
2017 draft class: PF Bam Adebayo (Round: 1 Pick: 14)
2016-2017 points per game: 103.2 (No. 21)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .455 (No. 15)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .365 (No. 12)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 105.2 (No. 16)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 102.1 (No. 5)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .450 (tied-No. 6)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .343 (tied-No. 3)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 104.1 (No. 5)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.6 (No. 15)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.4 (No. tied-No. 17)

I take a look at the rest of the East to fill this last spot and there’s just not much out there. Philadelphia is a becoming a trendy pick, but I’m having trouble thinking a team with injury prone Joel Embiid, aging J.J. Reddick, and two rookies Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz are going to be a playoff team. By default, I’m going with Miami. The Heat won 41 games last year and made some decent moves in the offseason by bringing in Kelly Olynyk and A.J. Hammons. Also, Erik Spoelstra is a good coach and I like some of the players already on Miami’s roster – Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson, and Justise Winslow.

Prediction: 41-41 (eighth in the East)

Western Conference division winners:

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Paul George (13) keeps the ball in bounds in the first quarter against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Northwest division – Oklahoma City Thunder
2016-2017 record: 47-35
Key additions: SF Paul George, SF Carmelo Anthony, PF Patrick Patterson. PG Raymond Felton
Key departures: SG/PG Victor Oladipo, PF Taj Gibson, C Enes Kanter, PF/C Domantas Sabonis, SF Doug McDermott
2017 draft class: SG Terrance Ferguson (Round: 1 Pick: 21)
2016-2017 points per game: 106.6 (No. 11)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .452 (No. 17)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .327 (No. 30)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 105 (No. 17)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 105.8 (No. 16)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .459 (No. 19)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .356 (No. 14)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.1 (No. 10)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 46.6 (No. 1)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +1.4 (No. 4)

Oklahoma City made huge splashes in the offseason by acquiring Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to pair with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams. This team has been getting a lot of hype to contend with Golden State in the West, and I agree that the Thunder are now very interesting. However, the front office got rid of a lot of depth in order to get George and Anthony, and Anthony has a history of not playing defense and being a head case. I like the decision to draft Terrance Ferguson and bringing in power forward Patrick Patterson though. This is going to be a much better team this season, but I’m not sure OKC will be as good as everyone thinks.

Prediction: 57-25 (third in the West)

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) stands on the court against the Denver Nuggets in the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Pacific division – Golden State Warriors
2016-2017 record: 67-15
Key additions: SG Nick Young
Key departures: N/A
2017 draft class: PF/C Jordan Bell (Round: 2 Pick: 38; acquired from Chicago)
2016-2017 points per game: 115.9 (No. 1)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .495 (No. 1)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .383 (No. 3)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 113.2 (No. 1)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 104.3 (No. 11)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .435 (No. 1)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .324 (No. 1)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 101.1 (No. 2)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 44.4 (No. 7)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.4 (No. 17)

Golden State is the best team in the league right now. The Warriors have a “Big Four” in Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green. They also have really good depth and a great head coach in Steve Kerr. Plus, adding Nick Young is only going to give this team more depth and it adds another scorer when the starters are off the court – bad news for the rest of the league. Barring any injuries, this team is easily going to win over 60 games and should have no problem getting back to the NBA Finals.

Prediction: 66-16 (first in the West)

Houston Rockets guard Chris Paul (3) and James Harden (13) during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Southwest division – Houston Rockets
2016-2017 record: 55-27
Key additions: PG Chris Paul, SF P.J. Tucker, PG/SF Tim Quarterman, PF Jarrod Uthoff
Key departures: SF/PF Sam Dekker, PG Patrick Beverley, SG/PG Lou Williams, PF Montrezl Harrell, PF Kyle Wiltjer
2017 draft class: PF Isaiah Hartenstein (Round: 2 Pick: 43)
2016-2017 points per game: 115.3 (No. 2)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .462 (No. 12)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .357 (No. 15)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 111.8 (No. 2)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 109.6 (No. 26)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .463 (No. 23)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .343 (No. 3)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.4 (No. 17)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 44.4 (No. 7)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +0.1 (No. 14)

Honestly, I think I like Houston more than Oklahoma City in the West. The addition of Chris Paul is going to be huge for Mike D’Antoni’s offense. He’s never had a point guard as good or as complete as Paul in his offense, and we’ve seen what D’Antoni can do with point guards – I think that needs to worry the rest of the league. James Harden, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson also had career years in this system last year – the three combined to average 58.9 points per game last year. Depth is a concern in Houston, but I think the Rockets’ offense is going to be so good this season that lacking sufficient depth might not hurt the team too bad.

Prediction: 60-22 (second in the West)

Other playoff teams in the West:

San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich argues a call with referee Lauren Holtkamp (not pictured) during the second half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

San Antonio Spurs
2016-2017 record: 61-21
Key additions: SF Rudy Gay, SG Brandon Paul
Key departures: PF David Lee, SG/SF Jonathon Simmons
2017 draft class: PG Derrick White (Round: 1 Pick: 29), SF Jaron Blossomgame (Round: 2 Pick: 59)
2016-2017 points per game: 105.3 (No. 14)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .469 (No. 7)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .391 (No. 1)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.8 (No. 7)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 98.1 (No. 2)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .443 (No. 4)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .344 (No. 5)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 100.9 (No. 1)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.9 (No. 10)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.9 (No. 23)

I struggle seeing San Antonio being as good as San Antonio has been the last few years. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Pau Gasol are aging, and LaMarcus Aldridge is a shell of his former self – averaging 17.6 points per game since joining the Spurs two years ago, compared to averaging 22.2 points per game in his final five years in Portland. Kawhi Leonard is a phenomenal player, but I think it’s starting to become a one-man show in San Antonio. Since Gregg Popovich is still this team’s coach, the Spurs should still be in good shape to win over 50 games. However, the Spurs didn’t improve much in the offseason and I think their championship window is starting to close.

Prediction: 55-27 (fourth in the West)

Minnesota Timberwolves player Jimmy Butler dunks against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first half during a preseason NBA basketball game at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Timberwolves
2016-2017 record: 31-51
Key additions: SG Jimmy Butler, PG Jeff Teague, PF Taj Gibson, SG Jamal Crawford,
Key departures: PG Ricky Rubio, PG Kris Dunn, SG/PG Zach LaVine, C Nikola Pekovic, PF Jordan Hill, PF Adreian Payne
2017 draft class: C Justin Patton (Round: 1 Pick: 16)
2016-2017 points per game: 105.6 (No. 13)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .467 (No. 8)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .349 (No. 20)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.1 (No. 10)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 106.7 (No. 18)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .475 (No. 28)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .366 (No. 21)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 109.1 (No. 26)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 42.4 (No. 25)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.4 (No. 17)

Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins have been in the league less than five years and both combined to average 48.7 points per game last season. However, the young talent has got to start coming together in Minnesota. With the addition of Jimmy Butler, I think this year will be the year Minnesota finally starts taking steps forward. Butler is excellent defensively and is a good three-point shooter – which should really help because Minnesota struggled in both of those categories last year. The Timberwolves also added pieces that should give them enough depth to compete in the West by signing Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, and Jamal Crawford. Plus, Tom Thibodeau is a good coach and I think he can take this team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

Prediction: 48-34 (fifth in the West)

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) shoots the ball over San Antonio Spurs forward Matt Costello (10) during the second half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Nuggets
2016-2017 record: 40-42
Key additions: PF Paul Millsap, PF Trey Lyles, SF Richard Jefferson, C Roy Hibbert
Key departures: SF/PF Danilo Gallinari
2017 draft class: PG Tyler Lydon (Round: 1 Pick: 24), SF Vlatko Cancar (Round: 2 Pick: 49), PG Monte Morris (Round: 2 Pick: 51)
2016-2017 points per game: 111.7 (No. 3)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .469 (No. 6)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .368 (No. 11)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 110 (No. 5)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 111.2 (No. 27)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .477 (No. 29)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .375 (No. 28)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 110.5 (No. 29)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 46.4 (No. 2)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +3 (No. 2)

Denver has one of the best and deepest front courts in the NBA with Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee, Kenneth Faried, and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets also got deeper in that area by adding Trey Lyles, Richard Jefferson, and Roy Hibbert. They have a back court that is just good enough with Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, and Tyler Lydon. Denver was really good offensively last year and should be much improved defensively with the additions the team made to improve the front court in the offseason. The Nuggets won 40 games last year and barely missed the playoffs, so I don’t think it’s out of the question to think this team can win a few more games and make the postseason this year.

Prediction: 45-37 (sixth in the West)

Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) battles Portland Trail Blazers forward Caleb Swanigan (50) for a rebound in the first half of the game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Clippers
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Key additions: SF/PF Danilo Gallinari, PG Patrick Beverley, SF/PF Sam Dekker, PF Montrezl Harrell, SG/PG Lou Williams, PF Kyle Wiltjer
Key departures: PG Chris Paul, SG J.J. Reddick, SG Jamal Crawford
2017 draft class: PG Jawun Evans (Round: 2 Pick: 39; acquired from Philadelphia), SG Sindarius Thornwell (Round: 2 Pick: 59; acquired from Milwaukee)
2016-2017 points per game: 108.7 (No. 6)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .475 (No. 2)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .375 (No. 6)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 110.3 (No. 4)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 104.4 (No. 12)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .452 (No. 11)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .350 (No. 8)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.8 (No. 13)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43 (No. 21)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.1 (No. 16)

Losing Chris Paul is really going to hurt this team. However, there’s still DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin, and Doc Rivers there for the Clippers. So, this team shouldn’t completely fall off the map. Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverley are underrated players, in my opinion. I think they’ll be able to help keep this team afloat this season. The Clippers will probably struggle to get to 45 wins and they’re not going to be a contender, but if Jerry West can trade for an All-Star player by the trade deadline I think the Clippers can get to 50 wins.

Prediction: 42-40 (seventh in the West)

New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) controls the ball against the Chicago Bulls during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Pelicans
2016-2017 record: 34-48
Key additions: PG Rajon Rondo
Key departures: PG Tim Frazier
2017 draft class: PG Frank Jackson (Round: 2 Pick: 31)
2016-2017 points per game: 104.3 (No. 18)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .450 (No. 20)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .350 (No. 19)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 103.3 (No. 25)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 106.4 (No. 17)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .450 (No. 8)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .353 (No. 9)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 104.9 (No. 8)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.7 (No. 13)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -1.1 (No. 25)

How much longer can New Orleans afford to waste Anthony Davis’ prime? He’s a perennial All-Star and arguably a top 10 player in the league. Maybe having a full year with DeMarcus Cousins to help take the pressure off Davis will make a difference with this team. The Pelicans don’t have a very good back court though, outside of Jrue Holliday. Still, New Orleans was a very good defensive team last year and was just seven games out of making the playoffs. Some of the moves made by teams in the West in the offseason has disrupted the hierarchy in that conference, so I think the Pelicans have just enough talent to win a few more games and sneak into the playoffs because of that.

Prediction: 41-41 (eighth in the West)

2018 NBA Finals:

Cleveland vs. Golden State

Winner: Golden State

My readers know me by now. I hate picking teams to repeat as champions, so it must show a lot that I’m predicting an NBA Finals between the same two teams for a fourth-consecutive season this year. I’m just confident in saying that the Cavaliers and Warriors are far and away the best teams in the league. I made a mistake last year by picking San Antonio to win it all. I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger on a team not named Cleveland or Golden State again this year. I hate being boring, but I’m going to feel like an idiot if I pick anyone else. Golden State is probably the most talented professional basketball team I’ve ever seen with a great coach and a deep bench. The Warriors are the clear favorites and I’ll be shocked if they don’t win it all.

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

2017 NBA postseason predictions

Movie quote of the day:

“Let me explain something to you, Dave. There are two kinds of angry people in this world: explosive and implosive. Explosive is the kind of individual you see screaming at the cashier for not taking their coupons. Implosive is the cashier who remains quiet day after day and finally shoots everyone in the store. You’re the cashier.”

– Dr. Buddy Rydell, Anger Management (2003)

This is one of my favorite times of the year. Spring is in the air and summer isn’t far away, the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs are going on, baseball season just started, and the NFL draft is just around the corner. It’s truly an underrated time. Since the NBA postseason starts tomorrow, it’s time for my predictions.

Eastern Conference standings:
1. Boston Celtics (53-29)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31)
3. Toronto Raptors (51-31)
4. Washington Wizards (49-33)
5. Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
6. Milwaukee Bucks (42-40)
7. Indiana Pacers (42-40)
8. Chicago Bulls (41-41)

Western Conference standings:
1. Golden State Warriors (67-15)
2. San Antonio Spurs (61-21)
3. Houston Rockets (55-27)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)
5. Utah Jazz (51-31)
6. Oklahoma City Thunder (47-35)
7. Memphis Grizzlies (43-39)
8. Portland Trail Blazers (41-41)

First round:

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas reacts to a play. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Chicago Bulls

As a Celtics fan, I’m still amazed that Boston managed to get the No. 1 seed in the East – granted, Cleveland kind of just handed it to the Celtics, but still, it’s impressive. I think Boston’s lack of superstars, and Chicago’s veteran experience, will make this more of an entertaining series than what it probably should be. I expect Jimmy Butler to have a big series. However, I think the youth of the Celtics will eventually wear down some of the aging players on Chicago.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Atlanta Hawks center Dwight Howard grabs a rebound. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Washington Wizards vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks

I’ll be honest, I don’t know much about Atlanta. The Hawks don’t have a single player on their team that averages more than 20 points per game. Atlanta does have a size advantage though over Washington, and plays better defense. I think that helps keep this series competitive, but in the end, I think John Wall and Bradley Beal power the Wizards into the second round.

Prediction: Wizards in seven

Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks

I have half a mind to pick an upset in this series. I’m not really sold on Toronto. Outside of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors don’t have much. I think Toronto is going to have a difficult time trying to guard Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, it’s a guard-driven league and Toronto has one of the best guard duos in the NBA.

Prediction: Raptors in seven

Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) shoots the ball over Toronto Raptors forward PJ Tucker. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers

I think this could be an entertaining series if Cleveland doesn’t bring its A game. Indiana has the size to match up well with the Cavaliers on the boards. Also, Paul George can be a nightmare for opposing teams – especially for a team like Cleveland, which ranked No. 22 in defensive efficiency in the regular season. However, the Pacers don’t have the same depth that the Cavaliers do, and I think that will be the difference maker.

Prediction: Cavaliers in six

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) dribbles the ball past Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter Jr. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers

Golden State has too much fire power and super stars to lose this series. Unless someone on the Warriors gets seriously hurt, I’m not even sure Portland wins a game.

Prediction: Warriors in four

Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) shoots the ball against Sacramento Kings guard Ben McLemore. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz

This is one of the tougher series to predict. I feel like the window for a championship closed years ago for the Clippers, and I think Utah matches up well with them. Gordon Hayward should perform very well in this series because the Clippers don’t really have a small forward that’s going to be able to defend him. The Jazz’s defense will keep them in the series. However, the Clippers have the veteran advantage, the home-court advantage, and has the coaching advantage with Doc Rivers. It’s going to be tough for Utah to get four wins.

Prediction: Clippers in seven

Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) shoots against Los Angeles Clippers guard Jamal Crawford. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Houston Rockets vs. No. 6 Oklahoma City Thunder

This is another series where I think the lower-seeded team matches up well with the higher seeded team. Both are great at rebounding – ranking in the top 10 in the league in that category. This series will probably come down to which team is better is better offensively, and I think that’s Houston. The Rockets are No. 2 in the league in offensive efficiency and No. 12 in field-goal percentage. I just don’t think Oklahoma City has enough offensive fire power to keep up with Houston. (By the way, Russell Westbrook has my vote for league MVP)

Prediction: Rockets in six

Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol reacts on the court. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis matches up well with San Antonio defensively, however, that’s about it. The Spurs rank in the top 10 in the league in offensive and defensive efficiency, and rebounding. Also, there’s no way I’m picking against Gregg Popovich.

Prediction: Spurs in five

Second round:

Eastern Conference

Washington Wizards guard John Wall. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 4 Washington Wizards

As a Celtics fan, I’d love to see them go on a run and potentially win that 18th championship. I don’t think Boston has the playmakers to do that though, especially on offense. In order to get to the finals, I feel like the Celtics have to find another scorer other than Isaiah Thomas, and I just don’t think they have one. I feel like Washington has the potential to get an upset in this series. The Wizards have two players that they can rely on to score, they rebound better than Boston, and they have a head coach with plenty of postseason experience in Scott Brooks. Boston isn’t far off from being a legit championship contender, but it’s not this year.

Prediction: Wizards in six

Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 3 Toronto Raptors

The area that Toronto matches up well with Cleveland is probably guard play. The Raptors’ guards are just as good, if not better than Cleveland’s. However, the Cavaliers are much better than Toronto in almost every other category. They have size and more depth than Toronto. Also, no one on the Raptors has the ability to guard LeBron James, especially for a whole series.

Prediction: Cavaliers in five

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers

Ever since Steve Kerr took over as Golden State’s head coach, the Warriors have a record of 11-1 against the Clippers in the regular season – and that one loss occurred in December of 2014. The Clippers just don’t match up well with Golden State, and there’s no way I’m picking against the Warriors in this series. Since the Clippers haven’t beat the Warriors in over two years and it’s the playoffs, I’ll give them one win but that’s it.

Prediction: Warriors in five

Memphis Grizzlies forward JaMychal Green defends against Houston Rockets guard Eric Gordon (10). Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 3 Houston Rockets

You have to play defense in order to make a deep run in the postseason, and one of the knocks on Mike D’Antoni is that his teams aren’t known for defense. It’s the same case this year as Houston ranks No. 17 in the league in defensive efficiency. James Harden is having a MVP-caliber year and the Rockets have tons of offensive fire power, but that won’t do much good against the Spurs – a team known for aggressive defense and great coaching.

Prediction: Spurs in five

Conference finals:

Eastern Conference Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 4 Washington Wizards

Not many people are believing in Cleveland right now – and rightfully so since the Cavaliers are 12-15 since the All-Star break. However, I’m not buying into that again because we saw the same thing happen last year. The Cavaliers ended last year’s regular season horribly – and went on to win it all, and had a record of 16-5 in the postseason. With all the rest that Cleveland’s key players have had in the second half of the season, I think that will really benefit the Cavaliers this postseason and they get back to being the top dog in the east. Even though I think Washington takes down Boston, I don’t think the Wizards pose much of a threat to Cleveland.

Prediction: Cavaliers in five

Western Conference Finals

San Antonio Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard (2) shoots the ball over Utah Jazz point guard Dante Exum (11). Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs

I don’t care what anyone says, these are the best two teams in the league and it’s a shame that only one will play for the title. I picked San Antonio to win it all in the preseason – mostly to be different from everyone else – so I don’t think it should shock anyone to know now that I’m changing that prediction. As much as I respect Gregg Popovich, I don’t think he has the personnel to knock off Golden State – particularly at guard. I don’t think the Spurs have the guards to keep up with the Warriors. Also, Golden State has Kevin Durant to match up with Kawhi Leonard – San Antonio’s best player. If the Spurs have the edge, it’s in the paint since Golden State doesn’t have a true rim protector but I still don’t think that’ll be enough to advance to the finals.

Prediction: Warriors in six

2017 NBA Finals

No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers

Never in NBA history have the same two teams made it to the finals for three-straight seasons. So, the odds are against the Warriors and Cavaliers to meet again. However, I just don’t see it going any other way this postseason. If these teams manage to see each other again for a chance to win it all, I like the Warriors to get vengeance for last year. Golden State has looked the part of the best team in the league the last few weeks – winners of 15 of its last 16 games, and Kevin Durant is back healthy. Even though the Warriors don’t have as much size or depth as the Cavaliers, they play tough defense and they shoot the ball better than anyone. Cleveland has struggled with defense all year and that won’t fly against Golden State.

Prediction: Warriors in six
Finals MVP: Kevin Durant

Thanks for reading

Shane Price – @priceisright53