Movie quote of the day:
“Larry’s not white. Larry’s clear.”
— Bill Murray, “Space Jam” (1996)
The NBA regular season ended over the weekend while I was at my brother’s bachelor party in Cincinnati. I was actually worried that I wouldn’t have enough time to write up this post since I had to travel all day Sunday, but I managed to get it done. Some people might think that this post is coming a little early since the playoffs technically don’t start until Saturday, but my readers ought to know that I consider the NBA’s Play-In Tournament to be part of the league’s postseason. This will be the fifth installment of the Play-In Tournament, so I shouldn’t have to explain how it works at this point.
After a few years of having some semblance of balance, it feels like the league went right back to where it was between 2015-20. I think there are only two or three teams that can legitimately win the championship. I consider every other team to just be along for the ride until I see otherwise. Then again, NBA teams are notorious for not taking the regular season seriously. There’s a good chance that some teams are able to turn it on suddenly and play championship-level basketball now that it’s the postseason. We saw it happen last year with the Lakers and Miami, which were both in the Play-In Tournament and made deep postseason runs.
Even though the league has become so top heavy, I still can’t help but feel nostalgic about this time of year. Some of my fondest memories of my youth came watching the NBA postseason late at night while my semester of school was winding down. I really hope teams step up their game these next few weeks. I enjoy parity and having some unpredictability in playoffs.
Play-In Tournament
Eastern Conference
No. 8 Miami (46-36) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia (47-35)
With this game in Philadelphia, I’ll give the advantage to the 76ers. Miami has struggled offensively on the road — ranking No. 21 in offensive efficiency. The Heat are a great defensive team, but I’m not convinced they’ll be able to score on Philadelphia, which has been a great defensive team at home. You have to be able to score points consistently to advance in the postseason. Joel Embiid is also expected to be healthy, which will only benefits the 76ers.
Winner: 76ers
No. 10 Atlanta (36-46) vs. No. 9 Chicago (39-43)
I don’t know if Atlanta is good enough defensively to get out of the play-in tournament. The Hawks might not even be good enough on that end of the court to win this game. They rank No. 27 in the league in defensive efficiency. Chicago has just enough scoring depth — with four different players averaging at least 18 points per game — to take advantage of that mismatch. I also think the Bulls have the coaching advantage in Billy Donovan.
Winner: Bulls
No. 9 Chicago vs. No. 8 Miami
I doubt Chicago is a good enough team to win this game. The Bulls don’t have the star power to match up with Miami. They’ve also struggled significantly on the road — winning just 19 of 41 games and ranking No. 23 in defensive efficiency. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Heat, who will have the two best players on the court in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. I also think Miami has the coaching advantage in Erik Spoelstra.
Winner: Heat
Western Conference
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) vs. No. 7 New Orleans (49-33)
In essentially a one-game playoff, I’ll give the advantage to LeBron James. He typically saves his best for the postseason and you’ve seen that the last few weeks. The Lakers have won 20 of their last 30 games, and James averaged 26.3 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans has been one of the top defensive teams throughout the regular season, but I’m not convinced it can guard the Lakers well enough to win this game.
Winner: Lakers
No. 10 Golden State (46-36) vs. No. 9 Sacramento (46-36)
Even though Golden State has been inconsistent this season, I’ll still pick it to win this game. The Warriors have actually been very good on the road — winning 25 games and ranking in the top five in defensive efficiency. Golden State is also a veteran team, whereas Sacramento is one of the younger teams in the league. When these teams met in the postseason last year, the lack of playoff experience was a disadvantage for the Kings.
Winner: Warriors
No. 10 Golden State vs. No. 7 New Orleans
Golden State has just been too inconsistent all season, even showing signs of regression. It feels like this will be the end of the Warriors’ run as one of the top teams in the league, which is why I don’t trust them to get out of the play-in tournament. New Orleans is a good team with an ascending star player in Zion Williamson. The Pelicans also rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency at home, so they should be able to stifle Golden State’s offense.
Winner: Pelicans
First round
Eastern Conference
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Boston (64-18)
I find it highly unlikely that Miami gets the same magic that it had last year, when it won the East as a No. 8 seed. That type of run rarely happens in professional sports, specifically in the NBA. I think the Heat will have a difficult time defending and keeping up with Boston’s offense, which ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency and averages 120.6 points per game. I expect this to be a challenging series for the Celtics, but I think they get it done.
Prediction: Celtics in six
No. 5 Orlando (47-35) vs. No. 4 Cleveland (48-34)
Orlando has been one of the best stories of the season, but I doubt it’ll win this series. The Magic are a very young team that lacks postseason experience. On the other side, Cleveland has a solid squad that’s led by one of the best players in basketball in Donovan Mitchell. Orlando has also been too inconsistent offensively — ranking last among playoff teams in offensive efficiency. I expect the Cavaliers to advance to the next round.
Prediction: Cavaliers in six
No. 6 Indiana (47-35) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (49-33)
Milwaukee hasn’t played well in recent weeks. The Bucks have posted a record of 19-20 since firing Adrian Griffin back in January — allowing an abysmal 111.8 points per game during that stretch. This could end up being a favorable matchup for Indiana, which averages 123.1 points per game. However, the Pacers are even worse than Milwaukee defensively. The Bucks also have more talent and postseason experience. I think they squeak out a series victory.
Prediction: Bucks in seven
No. 7 Philadelphia vs. No. 2 New York (50-32)
Philadelphia won eight games in a row to end the regular season, so it’s a hot team right now. With a healthy Embiid, the 76ers have a shot of winning this series. I have to pick New York to advance, though. The Knicks have been surging the last few weeks — winning 13 of their last 18 games. Losing Julius Randle hurts, but I think New York has enough depth to overcome his absence. The Knicks should also benefit from having home-court advantage.
Prediction: Knicks in seven
Western Conference
No. 8 New Orleans vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City (57-25)
Despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league, Oklahoma City had its best season since Kevin Durant was with the team. Even though they’re inexperienced, I think the Thunder are a real threat to win the West. They have a star player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with some scoring depth. I don’t see Oklahoma City being one-and-done in this postseason.
Prediction: Thunder in six
No. 5 Dallas (50-32) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)
It’s easy to want to pick the Clippers because they have star players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden. However, the Clippers are a team that I don’t trust in the postseason. They’ve won just three playoff series since 2019. Dallas is arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. The Mavericks have won 16 of their last 20 games. The Clippers also aren’t a great defensive team, so I think they’ll have a difficult time defending Luka Dončić.
Prediction: Mavericks in seven
No. 6 Phoenix (49-33) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (56-26)
I don’t want to do it, but I’ll give the slight advantage in this series to Phoenix. The Suns arguably have the best scoring trio in the league in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Minnesota has been great defensively, but it’ll have a difficult time defending those three players over the course of a series. I’m not convinced that the Timberwolves have a reliable scorer outside of Anthony Edwards. The organization also hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004.
Prediction: Suns in six
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Denver (57-25)
I don’t like picking against James in the postseason, but this is feels like a mismatch for the Lakers. Denver has the MVP frontrunner in Nikola Jokić and plenty of scoring depth, including five other players to average a minimum of 10.1 points per game. The Lakers haven’t played well away from home — winning just 19 games and ranking No. 20 in defensive efficiency. It’ll be incredibly difficult for the Lakers to pull off the upset in this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Second round
Eastern Conference
No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Boston
I don’t know if Cleveland has enough reliable scorers to win this series. Boston will try to limit Mitchell’s production, so Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley will have to step up. They’re good players, but I doubt they can be counted on over the course of a series. The Celtics also have a lot more scoring depth, which will be problematic for the Cavaliers’ defense. Boston should get back to the Eastern Conference Finals for a third-straight year.
Prediction: Celtics in six
No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 New York
I don’t have much trust in Milwaukee after the way it ended the regular season. The Bucks haven’t been impressive the last few weeks. I’m not even convinced they’ll get past the first round. I feel like I have to pick New York to win this series. The Knicks are playing well right now and they have depth. I also think New York, which ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, should be able to consistently score points against Milwaukee’s porous defense.
Prediction: Knicks in six
Western Conference
No. 5 Dallas vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
Dončić has been on fire the last few weeks — averaging 33.2 points per game since mid-February. He’s going to be a problem for Oklahoma City, but I think it’s up to the task. The Thunder rank No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency, so they should be able to slow down Dončić. I don’t think the Mavericks have enough scoring depth to pull off the upset if that happens. This should be an entertaining series, but I have to give the advantage to Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Thunder in six
No. 6 Phoenix vs. No. 2 Denver
There’s no way that I’m picking Phoenix to get the upset in this series. The Suns are one of the more talented teams in the NBA, but they haven’t been a reliable team since acquiring Durant last year. Eventually, teams have to put talent together and show it can win when it matters. Denver is the significantly better team. The Nuggets are great defensively and have plenty of scoring depth to complement Jokić. I expect Denver to make quick work of Phoenix.
Prediction: Nuggets in five
Eastern Conference Finals
No. 2 New York vs. No. 1 Boston
There’s plenty of room for optimism around New York, but I don’t see it getting past this point. The Knicks just aren’t as talented as Boston right now. With Randle out for the postseason, New York doesn’t have many reliable scorers outside of Jalen Brunson. It’ll be difficult for the Knicks to keep up with the Celtics over the course of a series. It feels like the East is Boston’s to lose, so I expect it to make its second trip to the NBA Finals in the last three years.
Prediction: Celtics in six
Western Conference Finals
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City
This feels like a tough matchup for Oklahoma City. While I think the Thunder are a legitimate contender, I think their lack of postseason experience will prevent them from getting to the Finals. The main reason why I’m picking Denver to win this series is because Oklahoma City lacks a dynamic big man to defend Jokić, which makes this series a mismatch. If the Thunder can’t limit Jokić’s production, it might end up being a quick victory for the Nuggets.
Prediction: Nuggets in six
2024 NBA Finals
No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Boston
It feels like we’re destined for a matchup between these teams in the Finals. They have the most depth and some of the best players in the game at the top of their rotations. Boston feels like a wagon this year, though. The Celtics average nearly 1.2 points per possession, which is the best in the category in over 20 years. I don’t know if any team will be able to slow down the Celtics’ offense this postseason, which has as many as eight quality scoring options on any given day. Defending Jokić will be a very tall order, but I think this Boston team is much better defensively than it was last year. Everything seems to be lining up for the Celtics to win their 18th championship.
Prediction: Celtics in seven
Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
All Things Sports from a Millennial 