Tag Minnesota Timberwolves

2024 NBA postseason predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Larry’s not white. Larry’s clear.”

— Bill Murray, “Space Jam” (1996)

The NBA regular season ended over the weekend while I was at my brother’s bachelor party in Cincinnati. I was actually worried that I wouldn’t have enough time to write up this post since I had to travel all day Sunday, but I managed to get it done. Some people might think that this post is coming a little early since the playoffs technically don’t start until Saturday, but my readers ought to know that I consider the NBA’s Play-In Tournament to be part of the league’s postseason. This will be the fifth installment of the Play-In Tournament, so I shouldn’t have to explain how it works at this point.

After a few years of having some semblance of balance, it feels like the league went right back to where it was between 2015-20. I think there are only two or three teams that can legitimately win the championship. I consider every other team to just be along for the ride until I see otherwise. Then again, NBA teams are notorious for not taking the regular season seriously. There’s a good chance that some teams are able to turn it on suddenly and play championship-level basketball now that it’s the postseason. We saw it happen last year with the Lakers and Miami, which were both in the Play-In Tournament and made deep postseason runs.

Even though the league has become so top heavy, I still can’t help but feel nostalgic about this time of year. Some of my fondest memories of my youth came watching the NBA postseason late at night while my semester of school was winding down. I really hope teams step up their game these next few weeks. I enjoy parity and having some unpredictability in playoffs.

Play-In Tournament

Eastern Conference

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) dribbles up court against the Chicago Bulls during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Miami (46-36) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia (47-35)

With this game in Philadelphia, I’ll give the advantage to the 76ers. Miami has struggled offensively on the road — ranking No. 21 in offensive efficiency. The Heat are a great defensive team, but I’m not convinced they’ll be able to score on Philadelphia, which has been a great defensive team at home. You have to be able to score points consistently to advance in the postseason. Joel Embiid is also expected to be healthy, which will only benefits the 76ers.

Winner: 76ers

Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan (11) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers forward Dean Wade (32) and center Jarrett Allen (31) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports


No. 10 Atlanta (36-46) vs. No. 9 Chicago (39-43)

I don’t know if Atlanta is good enough defensively to get out of the play-in tournament. The Hawks might not even be good enough on that end of the court to win this game. They rank No. 27 in the league in defensive efficiency. Chicago has just enough scoring depth — with four different players averaging at least 18 points per game — to take advantage of that mismatch. I also think the Bulls have the coaching advantage in Billy Donovan.

Winner: Bulls

Miami Heat guard Jimmy Butler (22) attempts a shot against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports


No. 9 Chicago vs. No. 8 Miami

I doubt Chicago is a good enough team to win this game. The Bulls don’t have the star power to match up with Miami. They’ve also struggled significantly on the road — winning just 19 of 41 games and ranking No. 23 in defensive efficiency. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Heat, who will have the two best players on the court in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. I also think Miami has the coaching advantage in Erik Spoelstra.

Winner: Heat

Western Conference

New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) dunks the ball against Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the second half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) vs. No. 7 New Orleans (49-33)

In essentially a one-game playoff, I’ll give the advantage to LeBron James. He typically saves his best for the postseason and you’ve seen that the last few weeks. The Lakers have won 20 of their last 30 games, and James averaged 26.3 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans has been one of the top defensive teams throughout the regular season, but I’m not convinced it can guard the Lakers well enough to win this game.

Winner: Lakers

Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) shoots the basketball during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


No. 10 Golden State (46-36) vs. No. 9 Sacramento (46-36)

Even though Golden State has been inconsistent this season, I’ll still pick it to win this game. The Warriors have actually been very good on the road — winning 25 games and ranking in the top five in defensive efficiency. Golden State is also a veteran team, whereas Sacramento is one of the younger teams in the league. When these teams met in the postseason last year, the lack of playoff experience was a disadvantage for the Kings.

Winner: Warriors

New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) dribbles against the Utah Jazz at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports


No. 10 Golden State vs. No. 7 New Orleans

Golden State has just been too inconsistent all season, even showing signs of regression. It feels like this will be the end of the Warriors’ run as one of the top teams in the league, which is why I don’t trust them to get out of the play-in tournament. New Orleans is a good team with an ascending star player in Zion Williamson. The Pelicans also rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency at home, so they should be able to stifle Golden State’s offense.

Winner: Pelicans

First round

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) controls the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Boston (64-18)

I find it highly unlikely that Miami gets the same magic that it had last year, when it won the East as a No. 8 seed. That type of run rarely happens in professional sports, specifically in the NBA. I think the Heat will have a difficult time defending and keeping up with Boston’s offense, which ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency and averages 120.6 points per game. I expect this to be a challenging series for the Celtics, but I think they get it done.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports


No. 5 Orlando (47-35) vs. No. 4 Cleveland (48-34)

Orlando has been one of the best stories of the season, but I doubt it’ll win this series. The Magic are a very young team that lacks postseason experience. On the other side, Cleveland has a solid squad that’s led by one of the best players in basketball in Donovan Mitchell. Orlando has also been too inconsistent offensively — ranking last among playoff teams in offensive efficiency. I expect the Cavaliers to advance to the next round.

Prediction: Cavaliers in six

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the game against the Chicago Bulls at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports


No. 6 Indiana (47-35) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (49-33)

Milwaukee hasn’t played well in recent weeks. The Bucks have posted a record of 19-20 since firing Adrian Griffin back in January — allowing an abysmal 111.8 points per game during that stretch. This could end up being a favorable matchup for Indiana, which averages 123.1 points per game. However, the Pacers are even worse than Milwaukee defensively. The Bucks also have more talent and postseason experience. I think they squeak out a series victory.

Prediction: Bucks in seven

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) brings the ball up court in the fourth quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports


No. 7 Philadelphia vs. No. 2 New York (50-32)

Philadelphia won eight games in a row to end the regular season, so it’s a hot team right now. With a healthy Embiid, the 76ers have a shot of winning this series. I have to pick New York to advance, though. The Knicks have been surging the last few weeks — winning 13 of their last 18 games. Losing Julius Randle hurts, but I think New York has enough depth to overcome his absence. The Knicks should also benefit from having home-court advantage.

Prediction: Knicks in seven

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball down the court against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 New Orleans vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City (57-25)

Despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league, Oklahoma City had its best season since Kevin Durant was with the team. Even though they’re inexperienced, I think the Thunder are a real threat to win the West. They have a star player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with some scoring depth. I don’t see Oklahoma City being one-and-done in this postseason.

Prediction: Thunder in six

LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) dribbles against the Golden State Warriors during the second half of the game at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports


No. 5 Dallas (50-32) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)

It’s easy to want to pick the Clippers because they have star players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden. However, the Clippers are a team that I don’t trust in the postseason. They’ve won just three playoff series since 2019. Dallas is arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. The Mavericks have won 16 of their last 20 games. The Clippers also aren’t a great defensive team, so I think they’ll have a difficult time defending Luka Dončić.

Prediction: Mavericks in seven

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) celebrates after making a shot against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports


No. 6 Phoenix (49-33) vs. No. 3 Minnesota (56-26)

I don’t want to do it, but I’ll give the slight advantage in this series to Phoenix. The Suns arguably have the best scoring trio in the league in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Minnesota has been great defensively, but it’ll have a difficult time defending those three players over the course of a series. I’m not convinced that the Timberwolves have a reliable scorer outside of Anthony Edwards. The organization also hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004.

Prediction: Suns in six

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) passes the ball in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Denver (57-25)

I don’t like picking against James in the postseason, but this is feels like a mismatch for the Lakers. Denver has the MVP frontrunner in Nikola Jokić and plenty of scoring depth, including five other players to average a minimum of 10.1 points per game. The Lakers haven’t played well away from home — winning just 19 games and ranking No. 20 in defensive efficiency. It’ll be incredibly difficult for the Lakers to pull off the upset in this series.

Prediction: Nuggets in five

Second round

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) shoots in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports


No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Boston

I don’t know if Cleveland has enough reliable scorers to win this series. Boston will try to limit Mitchell’s production, so Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley will have to step up. They’re good players, but I doubt they can be counted on over the course of a series. The Celtics also have a lot more scoring depth, which will be problematic for the Cavaliers’ defense. Boston should get back to the Eastern Conference Finals for a third-straight year.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts after scoring the game-winning basket in overtime against the Sacramento Kings at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports


No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 2 New York

I don’t have much trust in Milwaukee after the way it ended the regular season. The Bucks haven’t been impressive the last few weeks. I’m not even convinced they’ll get past the first round. I feel like I have to pick New York to win this series. The Knicks are playing well right now and they have depth. I also think New York, which ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, should be able to consistently score points against Milwaukee’s porous defense.

Prediction: Knicks in six

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić (77) celibates after forward Tim Hardaway Jr. (not pictured) makes a three point jump shot against the Orlando Magic during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports


No. 5 Dallas vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City

Dončić has been on fire the last few weeks — averaging 33.2 points per game since mid-February. He’s going to be a problem for Oklahoma City, but I think it’s up to the task. The Thunder rank No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency, so they should be able to slow down Dončić. I don’t think the Mavericks have enough scoring depth to pull off the upset if that happens. This should be an entertaining series, but I have to give the advantage to Oklahoma City.

Prediction: Thunder in six

Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) dribbles against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports


No. 6 Phoenix vs. No. 2 Denver

There’s no way that I’m picking Phoenix to get the upset in this series. The Suns are one of the more talented teams in the NBA, but they haven’t been a reliable team since acquiring Durant last year. Eventually, teams have to put talent together and show it can win when it matters. Denver is the significantly better team. The Nuggets are great defensively and have plenty of scoring depth to complement Jokić. I expect Denver to make quick work of Phoenix.

Prediction: Nuggets in five

Eastern Conference Finals

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) looks to shoot against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro (35) in the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports


No. 2 New York vs. No. 1 Boston

There’s plenty of room for optimism around New York, but I don’t see it getting past this point. The Knicks just aren’t as talented as Boston right now. With Randle out for the postseason, New York doesn’t have many reliable scorers outside of Jalen Brunson. It’ll be difficult for the Knicks to keep up with the Celtics over the course of a series. It feels like the East is Boston’s to lose, so I expect it to make its second trip to the NBA Finals in the last three years.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Western Conference Finals

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić (15) controls the ball in the second quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports


No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City

This feels like a tough matchup for Oklahoma City. While I think the Thunder are a legitimate contender, I think their lack of postseason experience will prevent them from getting to the Finals. The main reason why I’m picking Denver to win this series is because Oklahoma City lacks a dynamic big man to defend Jokić, which makes this series a mismatch. If the Thunder can’t limit Jokić’s production, it might end up being a quick victory for the Nuggets.

Prediction: Nuggets in six

2024 NBA Finals

No. 2 Denver vs. No. 1 Boston

It feels like we’re destined for a matchup between these teams in the Finals. They have the most depth and some of the best players in the game at the top of their rotations. Boston feels like a wagon this year, though. The Celtics average nearly 1.2 points per possession, which is the best in the category in over 20 years. I don’t know if any team will be able to slow down the Celtics’ offense this postseason, which has as many as eight quality scoring options on any given day. Defending Jokić will be a very tall order, but I think this Boston team is much better defensively than it was last year. Everything seems to be lining up for the Celtics to win their 18th championship.

Prediction: Celtics in seven
Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum

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2023-24 NBA season predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Let it rain!”

– Sandy Lyle, “Along Came Polly” (2004)

Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone kisses the Larry O’Brien Trophy after winning the 2023 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


The NBA regular season is upon us, after what was a relatively quiet offseason for the league. That’s something that I haven’t witnessed in over a decade. Before the recent Damian Lillard and Jrue Holliday trades, the biggest acquisition made this offseason was arguably Memphis trading for Marcus Smart. Outside of acquisitions, the biggest story was probably James Harden and his drama with Philadelphia. 

Think about it, it feels like there’s always a big name to join a new team in recent years. We eventually got it with the Lillard trade, but it came in at the 11th hour of the offseason. That’s just something we’re not familiar with as NBA fans. 


My outlook for this season is that the league is still very balanced. The days of teams having a “Big 3” comprised of super stars are in the rearview mirror. The best teams in the NBA currently have two star players and a bunch of quality role players. I’m not used to seeing so much parity in this league. That’s why I think as many as six or seven teams can legitimately win the championship, as opposed to just two or three a few seasons ago. 

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dunks in the third quarter of their game against the Washington Wizards at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners predictions

AwardWinner
Most Valuable PlayerGiannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
Defensive Player of the YearEvan Mobley, Cleveland
Sixth Man of the YearImmanuel Quickley, New York
Rookie of the YearVictor Wembanyama, San Antonio
Price’s predicted major award winners


Antetokounmpo seems poised to have an MVP-caliber season. He’s arguably the best player in the NBA and has battled injuries each of the last two seasons. I also think having a new head coach in Milwaukee will allow Antetokounmpo to have more of an impact. Mobley is a good bet to win Defensive Player of the Year. He’s improved as a defender each year he’s been a pro, including being named to the first-team All-Defensive Team last season.

Quickley is one of the best players to come off the bench. He’s also improved as a player every season, improving his scoring to 14.9 points per game last season. Quickley is going to get a lot of recognition because he plays in New York, which is why I think he has a great chance to win the Sixth Man of the Year. I’m going chalk by picking Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year. He was regarded as one of the best prospects to come through the draft in recent years. With Gregg Poppvich as Wembanyama’s head coach, there’s no telling just how much of an impact he’ll have as a rookie. 

Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) dribbles while defended by Oklahoma City Thunder forward Ousmane Dieng (13) during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

Eastern Conference

TeamRecord
1Milwaukee Bucks55-27
2Boston Celtics54-28
3Cleveland Cavaliers50-32
4Miami Heat48-34
5Philadelphia 76ers45-37
6New York Knicks44-38
7Atlanta Hawks*41-41
8Indiana Pacers*40-42
9Brooklyn Nets*37-45
10Chicago Bulls*36-46
11Orlando Magic35-47
12Toronto Raptors34-48
13Charlotte Hornets32-50
14Detroit Pistons28-54
15Washington Wizards22-60
Price’s Eastern Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


I think the East comes down to two teams: Boston and Milwaukee. They have the most collection of talent in the conference. I’m going to give the slight advantage to the Bucks, though. The addition of Lillard is huge and it gives Milwaukee two reliable scorers every game. It also pushes Khris Middleton down to the No. 3 scorer, which might be a better spot for him. As I mentioned before, I also think the Bucks having a new head coach is going to unleash a side of Antetokounmpo that we haven’t seen since he won MVP in 2020. 

I don’t know what to expect from Boston. The Celtics are certainly talented enough to win it all, but they shook up their roster by moving on from Marcus Smart and Robert Williams, and acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Holliday. Boston should still finish in the top three in the East, though. I’m expecting Cleveland to improve with a full offseason of Donovan Mitchell working with the young players on the Cavaliers’ roster. I’m not going to count out Miami, either. The Heat won the East last year and have a great duo in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. A lot of things went their way last postseason, though, and they lost some quality role players this offseason. 

I think the days of Philadelphia being one of the top teams in the East are in the rearview mirror. The 76ers have their hands full with Harden, who I’m not convinced will finish the season with the team, and they have a new head coach. New York is one of the better teams in the East. The Knicks have a nice trio in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and R.J. Barrett, along with a decent head coach in Tom Thibodeau. Atlanta should be the best team outside of the top six solely because of Trae Young. Indiana should improve from last year, especially if Tyrese Haliburton plays more than 56 games. 

The last two spots of the play-in tournament will be a log jam between Brooklyn, Chicago, Orlando, and Toronto. I’m giving the Nets and Bulls the edge because those teams have a little more talent on their rosters. The Magic have some nice young players, but I need to see it make the playoffs first. There’s a decent chance that the Raptors trade away their best players before the deadline. Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington will likely round out the East. I doubt the Hornets have enough scoring outside of LaMelo Ball. The Pistons are still likely a year away from competing. The Wizards are entering a rebuild after trading Bradley Beal and Porzingis. 

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokič (15) against Phoenix Suns forward Chimezie Metu (4) during a preseason game at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Western Conference

TeamRecord
1Denver Nuggets53-29
2Phoenix Suns52-30
3Los Angeles Lakers50-32
4Sacramento Kings49-33
5Golden State Warriors46-36
6Los Angeles Clippers45-37
7Memphis Grizzlies*44-38
8Oklahoma City Thunder*43-39
9Minnesota Timberwolves*42-40
10New Orleans Pelicans*41-41
11Dallas Mavericks40-42
12Utah Jazz36-46
13Houston Rockets32-50
14San Antonio Spurs31-51
15Portland Trail Blazers25-57
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


The West is loaded with quality teams. There are probably 11 teams good enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are only 10 spots (if you count the play-in tournament). The team I like to finish No. 1 in the standings is the defending champions. Denver has one of the best players in the game in Nikola Jokič, who’s won MVP two of the last three seasons. The Nuggets also didn’t lose many of their other key role players, either. I think the organization is in the middle of a special point in its history. 

The second-best team in the West is arguably Phoenix, even though it moved on from Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Suns still have two of the best players in the NBA in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, and they traded for Beal. I also think, similar to Milwaukee, hiring a new head coach could make Phoenix better. Another team that I like is the Lakers. Remember, they got to the Western Conference Finals last year. I think they finally have a quality team to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I wanted to put Sacramento higher in my standings. The Kings have a nice young core, led by DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. I just like the other teams a little more. 

I’m not going to count out Golden State as a championship contender. I just think the Warriors are aging, and the 2022 season feels like an outlier. I can’t bring myself to quit on the Clippers. They have a veteran roster, featuring Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. It’s going to be difficult for Memphis to finish in the top six in the West with Ja Morant suspended for 25 games. The Grizzlies are still a young, talented team that should find a way to make the postseason. Oklahoma City has been trending in the right direction in recent seasons. The Thunder have put together a solid young core and I think they’ll be a playoff team. 

With Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota should be good enough to at least appear in the play-in tournament. I doubt the Timberwolves can finish in the top six spots, though. New Orleans has the potential to finish higher in the standings. It comes down to if Zion Williamson can stay healthy, which he hasn’t been able to do. I think Dallas is closer to the team that we saw in 2022, but I don’t trust Kyrie Irving. I have a difficult time seeing Utah competing for a playoff spot. Houston still has a ways to go, even though it should be improved under new head coach Ime Udoka. It’s rare for a rookie to immediately dominate the NBA, but I’m curious to see how Wembanyama performs for San Antonio. I don’t expect Portland to be that competitive after moving on from Lillard. 

2024 NBA Finals

Denver vs. Milwaukee

Thesefeel like the best teams with the fewest question marks in both conferences. Denver and Milwaukee have two of the top five players in the game in Jokič and Antetokounmpo. They also have plenty of scoring depth, including quality secondary options in Lillard and Jamal Murray. If they manage to get home-court advantage, I have a difficult time seeing either of them not representing their conferences in the Finals. 

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers during game two of the Western Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


The team I like to win it all is the Nuggets. As I mentioned earlier, I think they’re in the middle of something special. Jokič and Murray are one of the best duos in the league, and both are starting to enter their primes. I also think Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are solid depth players. I don’t see any reason to think Denver will fall off this season. 

Winner: Nuggets in six

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2023 NBA postseason predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Have you thought this through? I mean, chewed down to the bone? You got out once. You dip so much as a pinky back into this pond… you may well find something reaches out… and drags you back into its depths.”

– Winston, “John Wick” (2014)

The NBA might not officially recognize the play-in tournaments as part of the postseason, but I do. That’s why my predictions are likely coming a few days earlier than everyone else. For those that aren’t familiar with the play-in tournaments, the winner of each No. 7/No. 8 matchup earns the No. 7 seed in the 16-team tournament, and then the loser of the No. 7/No. 8 matchup and winner of the No. 9/No. 10 matchup will play for a chance to get the No. 8 seed. As I’ve done the last two seasons, I’m going to pick each matchup of the play-in tournaments.

While I haven’t watched much of the NBA this season, I’ve been following it pretty closely because West Virginia alumnus Joe Mazzulla is the head coach of my Boston Celtics. I haven’t paid this close attention to the league in a long time. I’m looking forward to this postseason officially getting started this weekend and not because the Celtics have the second-best odds to win the championship.

Much like last season, I don’t think there’s a clear favorite to win either conference, or even the championship. I couldn’t tell you the last time that I felt that the NBA was as open as it’s been the last two seasons. I used to thoroughly enjoy watching the NBA postseason when I was a young, but then lost interest once the league became top heavy. There’s still not as much parity in the league as I’d like to see, but it’s refreshing to see more than two teams have a realistic chance of winning the title for once.

Play-in tournament

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) dribbles the ball past Utah Jazz center Damian Jones (15) during the third quarter at Miami-Dade Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Atlanta (41-41) vs. No. 7 Miami (44-38)

Miami has struggled down the stretch, but I’m still going to give the advantage to the Heat. They’re the much better defensive team – ranking No. 2 in the league in points allowed. I think Miami is going to be able to limit Trae Young’s touches and impact on the game. If Young doesn’t go off, I have a difficult time seeing the Hawks winning this game. In essentially a one-game playoff, I have more trust in a veteran team with a veteran head coach like the Heat.

Winner: Heat

Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43) dribbles as Washington Wizards guard Delon Wright (55) defends during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports


No. 10 Chicago (40-42) vs. No. 9 Toronto (41-41)

I view these teams as pretty even. Neither of them really have much “star power” on their rosters and they each rank in the top eight in the league in points allowed per game. With the game in Toronto, I’m going to give the slight advantage to the Raptors. They’ve won 27 games at home this season, which ranks fifth in the East behind only the top four seeds. I also think Nick Nurse is a better head coach than Billy Donovan.

Winner: Raptors

Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) dribbles against the Washington Wizards in the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports


No. 9 Toronto vs. No. 8 Atlanta

Even though Toronto has been a good defensive team all season, I’m going to pick Atlanta to win this game. The Raptors haven’t played well on the road. Only five NBA teams have worse road records than Toronto. The Hawks have also averaged 117.3 points per game at home, whereas the Raptors have averaged 111.3 points per game on the road. Toronto might be able to contain Young, but I don’t think it’s going to be able to score enough points to win.

Winner: Hawks

Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) celebrates with an imaginary crown after a 3 point basket in the second half against the Utah Jazz at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Minnesota (42-40) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)

I don’t trust Minnesota to win this game. The Timberwolves are a talented young team, but I don’t think they’re capable of knocking off the experienced Lakers. The Lakers are going to have the best player on the court in LeBron James, maybe even the second-best player in Anthony Davis. While I don’t have much faith in the Lakers, they’ve been playing much better since acquiring D’Angelo Russell – winning 12 of their last 17 games.

Winner: Lakers

New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) drives to the basket against Chicago Bulls guard Alex Caruso (6) during the first quarter at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports


No. 10 Oklahoma City (40-42) vs. No. 9 New Orleans (42-40)

I’m having a difficult time picking Oklahoma City to win. The Thunder have struggled down the stretch – losing six of their last 10 games. With this game in New Orleans, I’m going to give the advantage to the Pelicans. They have one of the best records at home in the NBA. I also doubt that Oklahoma City has the scoring depth outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whereas New Orleans has two capable scorers in Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum.

Winner: Pelicans

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kyle Anderson (5) celebrates with guard Anthony Edwards (1) after Edwards scored against the Sacramento Kings during the fourth quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports


No. 9 New Orleans vs. No. 8 Minnesota

I went back and forth on which team to pick in this matchup, but I eventually decided on Minnesota. It’s hard for me to put much stock in New Orleans when it’s won only 15 games on the road this season, which is tied for fifth-worst in the West. You have to be able to win on the road to advance in the postseason. I also think the Timberwolves have a slight advantage when it comes to “star power” with Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Winner: Timberwolves

First round

Eastern Conference

Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) dribbles defended by Detroit Pistons forward Isaiah Livers (12) in the second half at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Atlanta vs. No. 1 Milwaukee (58-24)

I think it’s going to be incredibly difficult for Atlanta to win this series. The Hawks are one of the worst defensive teams in the league – allowing 118.1 points per game and their opponents shoot 48.6% from the field. That’s not going to be good enough to upset Milwaukee, which ranks in the top half of the league in points per game and 3-point percentage. I expect Atlanta to have a difficult time containing Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Prediction: Bucks in five

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) shoots against the Atlanta Hawks in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports


No. 5 New York (47-35) vs. No. 4 Cleveland (51-31)

I actually think New York has an above-average chance of winning this series. The Knicks are one of seven teams that have a winning record both at home and on the road. That could be meaningful for New York because it won’t have home-court advantage. I think Cleveland has the advantage, though. The Cavaliers are an ascending team with “star power.” They’re also the best defensive team in the league and I think that’s going to limit the Knicks’ offense.

Prediction: Cavaliers in seven

Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) controls the ball against the Toronto Raptors during the third quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports


No. 6 Brooklyn (45-37) vs. No. 3 Philadelphia (54-28)

I think Brooklyn has been a great story all season. The fact that the Nets got a top six seed despite trading away star players like Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is impressive. The NBA postseason always comes down to “star power,” though. Brooklyn is going to have a difficult time winning this series without any star players. I expect Philadelphia to win this series with relative ease. The 76ers have the better roster, head coach, and are the better defensive team.

Prediction: 76ers in five

Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla with forward Jayson Tatum (0) on the sideline as they take on the Portland Trail Blazers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports


No. 7 Miami vs. No. 2 Boston (57-25)

I wouldn’t rule out Miami’s chances of pulling off the upset in this series. The Heat have quality players with playoff experience like Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo. I can’t bring myself to pick Miami, though. For whatever reason, the Heat haven’t been able to put it together. Boston has been the superior team all season and is also younger. I expect the Celtics to advance to the next round.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Western Conference

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) calls out in the second half against the Golden State Warriors at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 1 Denver (53-29)

Barring any injuries, I’m struggling to see a scenario where Minnesota upsets Denver. The Nuggets are going to have home-court advantage in this series while boasting the second-best home record in the league. The Timberwolves have also struggled on the road, especially on the defensive end of the court. I think they’re going to have a difficult time defending Nikola Jokić, who might win a third-consecutive MVP trophy in the next few weeks.

Prediction: Nuggets in five

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives to the basket during the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Westerholt-USA TODAY Sports


No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers (44-38) vs. No. 4 Phoenix (45-37)

This is probably going to be the most entertaining series of the first round. Both teams have “star power” and are pretty good defensively. I’m going to give the advantage to Phoenix, though. Ever since Kevin Durant suited up for the Suns, they’ve been red hot. Phoenix has won its last eight games and averaged 116.1 points per game during that stretch. I also don’t trust this Clippers core, which has underperformed since acquiring Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

Prediction: Suns in six

Sacramento Kings shooting guard Malik Monk (0) dribbles the ball while defended by Portland Trail Blazers power forward Drew Eubanks (24) during the second half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports


No. 6 Golden State (44-38) vs. No. 3 Sacramento (48-34)

I’m tempted to pick Golden State to win this series only because of its playoff experience. However, the Warriors are an abysmal defensive team. The Warriors rank in the bottom 10 in the league in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency in road games. I think this is going to be a difficult matchup for the defending champions. Sacramento ranks in the top two in the NBA in points per game, field-goal percentage, and offensive efficiency.

Prediction: Kings in seven

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) drives to the basket during the second half against the Portland Trail Blazers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports


No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 2 Memphis (51-31)

The days of James taking over a series and leading his team in the playoffs are gone. This Lakers is flawed team. They have one of the oldest rosters and rank in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency on the road. That’s going to bode well for the Lakers when they won’t have home-court advantage in this series. Memphis has a talented, young core with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Dillon Brooks. I have to go with the Grizzlies.

Prediction: Grizzlies in six

Second round

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) dribbles against the Atlanta Hawks in the first quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports


No. 4 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Milwaukee

Cleveland is a team on the rise, but this is going to be a tough matchup. I have a difficult time taking the Cavaliers as a serious playoff threat when they have a losing record on the road. I don’t think that’s going to carry over in the postseason when Cleveland likely isn’t going to have home-court advantage after the first round. Milwaukee should be challenged in this series, but I expect it to win. I think the playoff experience of the Bucks will be the deciding factor.

Prediction: Bucks in six

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) passes the ball past Orlando Magic guard Markelle Fultz (20) during the fourth quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports


No. 3 Philadelphia vs. No. 2 Boston

I’m to the point that I need to see it from Philadelphia before I believe it. The 76ers haven’t made it past the second round with this core, so I’m not going to pick them to win this series. Boston is going to have its hands full defending Joel Embiid, but I’m not convinced that Philadelphia has enough offense outside of him. The Celtics have more offensive threats with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart. They also a quality offensive-minded head coach.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Western Conference

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) controls the ball in the second quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


No. 4 Phoenix vs. No. 1 Denver

If this series took place a few weeks ago, I’d pick Denver to win. However, I don’t like the way the Nuggets have played the last few weeks. They’ve lost 10 of their last 17 games. I’m not convinced that Denver has enough reliable scoring depth outside of Jokić. I also need to see the Nuggets get past the second round, which hasn’t happened since 2020. If Phoenix is healthy, it might be the best team in the NBA. It’s difficult to pick against the Suns right now.

Prediction: Suns in six

Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) dunks against the Dallas Mavericks during the fourth quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports


No. 3 Sacramento vs. No. 2 Memphis

This feels like the end of the road for Sacramento. The Kings have been a great story and are an ascending team, but I’m having a difficult time trusting them in the playoffs. Their core doesn’t have much playoff experience. I’m going to give Memphis the slight advantage because it was in this position last year and played tough against the eventual champions. The Grizzlies are also a much better defensive team, so I think they’re poised to make a pretty deep postseason run.

Prediction: Grizzlies in seven

Eastern Conference Finals

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dunks in the second quarter during game against the Toronto Raptors at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports


No. 2 Boston vs. No. 1 Milwaukee

Boston got the better of Milwaukee in seven games when these teams met in the playoffs last year. I don’t expect the same result this year because Khris Middleton is healthy, unlike last year. Having Middleton on the court is going to spread out Milwaukee’s offense, particularly Antetokounmpo’s opportunities. I feel like that’s going to be the difference in this series because the Celtics don’t really have anyone that can adequately defend Antetokounmpo.

Prediction: Bucks in seven

Western Conference Finals

Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) celebrates with Chris Paul (3) against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports


No. 4 Phoenix vs. No. 2 Memphis

I think Memphis has a bright future with Morant and the rest of its young core, but I’m not convinced it can win the West. This is going to be a difficult matchup for the Grizzlies. Phoenix has two players capable of taking over games in Devin Booker and Durant, and Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul are capable scorers. The Suns are also one of the better defensive teams – ranking No. 7 in defensive efficiency. After acquiring Durant, I think Phoenix is poised to get back to the finals.

Prediction: Suns in six

2023 NBA Finals

No. 4 Phoenix vs. No. 1 Milwaukee

In what will be a rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals, I’m expecting the same result this time around. Phoenix’s starting lineup matches up very well with Milwaukee, but depth is likely going to decide this series. I think the Bucks have a significant advantage on that front, along with the best player in the series in Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee had six different players average over 10 points per game and three more that averaged between 7.1 and 8.0 points per game. I think the Suns will have a difficult time keeping up over the course of this series. I’m going with the Bucks to win their third championship.

Prediction: Bucks in six
Finals MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo

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2022-23 NBA season predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“War is young men dying and old men talking. You know this. Ignore the politics.”

– Odysseus, “Troy” (2004)

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates with the the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy after the Golden State Warriors beat the Boston Celtics in game six of the 2022 NBA Finals to win the NBA Championship at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


October has to be the busiest month on the sports calendar. We’re about to have all four major sports (baseball, basketball, football, and hockey) being played at the same time. This week, it’s the NBA that starts back up. Historically, the NBA has always been a top-heavy league decided on which teams accumulated the most talent. The lack of parity in the league is why I lost interest in it from 2017-21, because the championship was coming down to two teams every season.

That’s no longer the case. This is the most intrigued that I’ve been with the NBA in years, and only partially because my Boston Celtics competed in the NBA Finals last season.

I think this is the most wide open the NBA has ever been. The league finally has some form of parity. That’s particularly true in the Eastern Conference. I could see as many as five or six teams represent the East in the NBA Finals. The Western Conference is a little bit more top-heavy. I could probably see three teams win the conference. However, I’m not convinced that the top of the West is that much better than the rest of the conference.

I truly believe that this is the most balanced that the NBA has been in decades, which is why I’m looking forward to this season.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić (77) in action against the Golden State Warriors during game four of the 2022 Western Conference finals at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners predictions

AwardPlayer
Most Valuable PlayerLuka Dončić, Dallas
Defensive Player of the YearGiannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
Sixth Man of the YearJordan Poole, Golden State
Rookie of the YearPaolo Banchero, Orlando
Price’s predicted major award winners


I think Dončić is poised to have a special season. It felt like last year was his official coming out party. He led Slovenia to the bronze medal game in the Summer Olympics and finished top five in the NBA in scoring – averaging 28.4 points per game. He’s a young player just getting started. If Antetokounmpo doesn’t win MVP, he’s a good bet to win Defensive Player of the Year award. Antetokounmpo has made the NBA All-Defensive First Team each of the last four seasons.

Poole has a great chance of winning Sixth Man of the Year. He averaged 18.5 points per game last year and was an important cog in Golden State winning the NBA Finals. He’s also guaranteed to come off the bench with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson starting. Picking Banchero to win Rookie of the Year is chalk. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft in June and is the Vegas favorite to win the award. He’s going to get a lot of playing time and scoring chances playing for Orlando.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots during the second quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Eastern Conference

TeamRecord
1Milwaukee Bucks56-26
2Miami Heat54-28
3Philadelphia 76ers53-29
4Boston Celtics50-32
5Cleveland Cavaliers48-34
6Brooklyn Nets46-36
7Toronto Raptors*45-37
8Atlanta Hawks*42-40
9New York Knicks*41-41
10Chicago Bulls*40-42
11Charlotte Hornets36-46
12Detroit Pistons33-49
13Washington Wizards30-52
14Orlando Magic26-56
15Indiana Pacers21-61
Price’s Eastern Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


The East comes down to about six teams, specifically Milwaukee, Miami, and Philadelphia. I consider the Bucks to be the best team. If Khris Middleton doesn’t get hurt in the postseason last season, I think it’s likely Milwaukee gets back to the NBA Finals. With Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are going to be in the mix, but they have a much better chance of winning it all with a healthy Middleton.

I don’t expect much regression from Miami, which lost in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season. The Heat have a terrific duo with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They also have a deep, talented roster with players like Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo. I feel like Miami gets forgotten about in the East, but I consider it to be one of the top teams in the NBA. Philadelphia has struggled to get over the hump, but it ought to be in the mix. The 76ers have the reigning MVP in Joel Embiid, an elite scorer in James Harden, and an experienced head coach in Doc Rivers. I question Philadelphia’s depth outside of those two players, but adding P.J. Tucker will help with that.

Vegas actually considers Boston to be the favorite to win the championship. However, I have my reservations about this team with Ime Udoka suspended for the season. As a fellow WVU alumni, I love Joe Mazzulla, but he has his hands full as this team’s interim head coach. Cleveland already had a promising young core with Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers also improved the most this offseason by trading for Donovan Mitchell. They now have a three talented young players and a bonafide star in Mitchell. I’m not convinced that Brooklyn is going to win a championship with the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. The Nets haven’t been able to get over the hump with the current players on their roster and I don’t believe in Steve Nash as a head coach. However, Brooklyn still has too much talent and should make the playoffs.

The play-in tournament is likely to come down to Toronto, Atlanta, New York, and Chicago. I trust Toronto to put a competitive team on the court. The Raptors are a well run organization and have exceeded expectations since Kawhi Leonard left the team in 2019. Atlanta doesn’t have much, but it has a star in Trae Young. As long as he’s healthy, the Hawks will have a chance to win games. Last season didn’t go well, but I’m not ready to give up on New York. The Knicks have promising young players in R.J. Barrett and Jalen Brunson. Tom Thibodeau is also an experienced head coach. Chicago exceeded expectations last season – finishing as the No. 6 team in the East. I don’t see the Bulls repeating that success. The Bulls already have DeMar DeRozan and added some good veterans like Andre Drummond and Goran Dragić. Chicago ought to be in the mix to make the playoffs.

I came close to putting Charlotte in the playoffs. The Hornets made the play-in tournament last year and have a rising star in LaMelo Ball. The East got much better this offseason and I’m not sure Charlotte did the same. I think Detroit is a team to keep an eye on. If Cade Cunningham takes a huge step forward in his develop, the Pistons will have a chance to make the playoffs. That’s a tall order, though. Washington doesn’t have much on its roster outside of Bradley Beal. I don’t see the Wizards being that competitive. I like what Orlando is building with Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, and Banchero. I still think the Magic are a few years away from being competitive. Indiana stripped it down in the offseason. It’ll likely be a long season for the Pacers, but I like the potential of their young core in Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Smith, and Bennedict Mathurin.

Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) and Devin Booker (1) against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Western Conference

TeamRecord
1Phoenix Suns58-24
2Golden State Warriors57-25
3Denver Nuggets54-28
4Memphis Grizzlies51-31
5Dallas Mavericks49-33
6Los Angeles Clippers46-36
7Minnesota Timberwolves*44-38
8Los Angeles Lakers*41-41
9New Orleans Pelicans*40-42
10Sacramento Kings*39-43
11Portland Trail Blazers34-48
12Utah Jazz29-53
13Houston Rockets24-58
14San Antonio Spurs23-59
15Oklahoma City Thunder20-62
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)


The West is definitely more top heavy than the East. Phoenix finished No. 1 in the West in last year’s regular season, and finished No. 2 the year before. Even though the Suns disappointed in the playoffs, I still consider them to be one of the best teams in the league. They have one of the best cores with Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges. There aren’t many teams as talented as Phoenix in the entire NBA, which is why I like it to finish at the top of the West once again.

Golden State is coming off its fourth championship in eight seasons. The Warriors didn’t lose many key contributors either. They also have the best combination of veterans and youth, along with one of the best players in basketball in Curry. I don’t see Golden State going anywhere. I feel like Denver is forgotten about in the West. Remember, the Nuggets weren’t healthy last year and still managed to win 48 games. With a healthy core of Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr., I think Denver will be among the top teams in the West.

Memphis felt like a team that over performed last year. The Grizzlies had one of the youngest rosters in the league and won 56 games. They have a rising star in Ja Morant and added Danny Green to give them a veteran presence. I think Memphis regresses a bit, though. With Dončić, Dallas is going to have a chance to win the West. He’s one of the top players in the NBA. What I think will hold the Mavericks back is their lack of depth. They don’t have many quality scorers outside of Dončić. The duo of Leonard and Paul George hasn’t worked out for the Clippers. I’m not banking on them to be much better than what they’ve been the last two seasons. However, the addition of John Wall could help them win more games.

I’m going to pick Minnesota, the Lakers, New Orleans, and Portland to make the West’s play-in tournament. I really like the Timberwolves’ core of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell. Minnesota also has a plethora of young players who could step up, and it added one of the best defensive bigs and veterans in Rudy Gobert. The Lakers were a huge disappointment last season. I have a difficult time seeing them miss the playoffs for a third time in four years with LeBron James. He’s still at the top of his game and the addition of Patrick Beverley could help them get over the hump. New Orleans was one of the surprise teams last year and I don’t see it falling off. The Pelicans have a solid duo in C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valančiūnas is also pretty good. If this team can figure out defense, they might finish higher in the standings. I’m going out on a limb and picking Sacramento to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006. The Kings already have a rising star in De’Aaron Fox, and Davion Mitchell showed promise as a rookie last year. I also like their additions of Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter. I think this team has a chance to surprise people.

Portland has a chance to sneak in the playoffs because it has Damian Lillard. However, the Trail Blazers are getting younger and I don’t think they’re going to be much better than they were last season. Even though Utah traded Donovan Mitchell, I think it’ll finish close to 30 wins. The Jazz are a very well-run organization. Unless Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., or Jabari Smith Jr. surprisingly develop into one of the top players in the NBA, I’m expecting Houston to finish near the bottom of the West. I like what the Rockets are building, but it’s going to take them time. Even though San Antonio’s Vegas win total is the worst in the West, I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt because it has Gregg Popovich. He’s a great coach who can prevent the Spurs from finishing last in the conference. Oklahoma City is in the middle of a rebuild and likely won’t be competitive this season. The Thunder don’t have many quality players outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s starting the season injured along with Chet Holmgren.

2023 NBA Finals

Miami vs. Golden State

Boston and Milwaukee get the spotlight in the East, but people forget that Miami was a game away from going to the NBA Finals last season. The Heat might have the best scoring depth in the conference, with three players in Adebayo, Butler, and Herro who can score 20 each game. Plus, Lowry and Oladipo are also quality players. I think Golden State is poised to be better than it was last season. The Warriors have one of the best cores, not only in the West, but in the entire league. You could also argue that they got better in the offseason after adding Donte DiVincenzo, JaMychal Green, and Ty Jerome.

The NBA is the only league that I’m comfortable picking defending champions. We’ve seen it happen frequently in the last 40 years. That’s why I don’t have reservations about picking Golden State to win it all for a second-straight season. The Warriors have an excellent trio with Curry, Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins, and maybe the deepest roster in the NBA. Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala are also capable veterans. Last season felt like the start of the second act in Golden State’s dynasty.

Prediction: Warriors in six

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2022 NBA postseason predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“You’ll play basketball my way. My way is hard.”

– Don Haskins, “Glory Road” (2006)

Technically, the NBA postseason begins tonight with the play-in tournaments in both the Eastern and Western Conference. I figured it was time to give pro basketball some attention on my blog and type up some predictions because of that. Last year, I thoroughly enjoyed the NBA postseason for the first time in a long time. It was a lot of fun watching teams that weren’t the usual suspects in Milwaukee and Phoenix, and even Atlanta and the Los Angeles Clippers, competing for a chance to win the championship. I’m really hoping it’ll be the same this time around. I enjoyed the NBA postseason when I was younger and the league is at its best when there’s been parity, which it seems like we finally have.

I was actually very surprised to see the other day that the NBA season was winding down. This seems like the first time ever that the NBA postseason is starting before the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I don’t remember that ever happening before.

I’m going to start my postseason predictions with the play-in tournaments. I know that the play-in tournaments aren’t marketed as the “postseason” by the league, but it absolutely is. For the record, 20 playoff teams is way too many for any professional sports league. A little refresher on the play-in tournaments in each conference: the No. 7 and No. 8 teams in the standings will play each other and the winner will become the official No. 7 seed; the loser of the No. 7/No. 8 matchup will then play the winner of the No. 9/No. 10 matchup and the winner will get the official No. 8 seed. Then, it becomes a normal 16-team tournament like it’s been for years.

I won’t waste any more of your time. Let’s get to it.

Play-in tournament

Eastern Conference:

Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant (7) high fives guard Kyrie Irving (11) during the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports


Cleveland (44-38) vs. Brooklyn (44-38)

Cleveland came out of nowhere and fielded a competitive team this season, but this feels like a tough matchup for the Cavaliers. The NBA postseason is driven by star power and I just don’t think the Cavaliers have it. Brooklyn not only has a plethora of stars, but it’s also been playing much better since March 6 – posting a record of 12-5. Coincidentally, that’s around the time Kyrie Irving returned to full-time playing status after New York City lifted some of its COVID-19 restrictions. I like the Nets to get out of the play-in tournament.

Winner: Nets

Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) brings the ball up the court against the Washington Wizards during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports


Charlotte (43-39) vs. Atlanta (43-39)

There was a point in January when Atlanta when eight games below .500 and was an afterthought in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. However, since Jan. 17, the Hawks have a record of 26-14, and have won 12 of their last 17 games. Atlanta is red hot right now and has star power in Trae Young. Remember, the Hawks went on a run last year and made it to the Eastern Conference Finals before coming up short to Milwaukee. I think that playoff experience is going to be crucial in this game. Charlotte hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, so a lot of the players on its roster don’t have much playoff experience, including All-Star LaMelo Ball.

Winner: Hawks

Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) grabs a rebound in the third quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports


Atlanta vs. Cleveland

This ought to be a very good game. I like the way both teams have been playing. I’m going to give the slight advantage to Cleveland, though. I don’t think the Hawks have enough players that can score outside of Young, and they’re also one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Cavaliers have plenty of scoring depth, with nine players averaging at least 10.7 points per game. They also have a few veterans with playoff experience and they’re one of the best defensive teams in the league – ranking No. 7 in defensive efficiency. I think Cleveland has what it takes to limit Young’s impact on the game. I don’t think Atlanta will be able to overcome that.

Winner: Cavaliers

Western Conference:

Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) shoots over Dallas Mavericks center Dwight Powell (7) during the second half at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports


Los Angeles Clippers (42-40) vs. Minnesota (46-36)

This is going to be a competitive game and I’m torn on which team to pick. With the game in Minneapolis, though, I’m going to give the slight advantage to Minnesota. I know that the Clippers have the star power, but I’ve been burned by them too much in the past. I’ve picked them to make deep postseason runs since acquiring Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and the Clippers have nothing to show for it in the last three years. The Clippers have also been terrible on the road this season – posting a record of 17-24, which is tied for second worst among playoff teams. I think the Timberwolves are a more well-rounded team than the Clippers. Minnesota is also playing well right now – winning 14 of its last 21 games.

Winner: Timberwolves

New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) dribbles the ball during the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports


San Antonio (34-48) vs. New Orleans (36-46)

I was originally going to pick San Antonio to win this game because I don’t like doubting Gregg Popovich in essentially a one-game playoff. However, Vegas currently has New Orleans as a 5-point favorite, and that’s without Zion Williamson. I think the Pelicans’ record is misleading. They started the season terribly – winning only two of their first 16 games. Since then, New Orleans has actually been above .500, which is part of the reason why I’m going to pick the Pelicans to win this game. I’m not sure the Spurs will be able to get any offense if Dejounte Murray can’t get going. On the other side, New Orleans has three capable scorers in C.J. McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas.

Winner: Pelicans

Los Angeles Clippers guard Paul George (13) controls the ball against New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) during the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports


New Orleans vs. Los Angeles Clippers

I didn’t like the Clippers in their first play-in game, but I do like them in this matchup. The Clippers have done a great job of staying above water even though Leonard and George have missed a lot time due to injuries. The reason for that can be attributed to the veteran combination of Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris Sr., and Luke Kennard. I think not having Williamson is really going to hurt New Orleans, too. With this game in Los Angeles, I doubt the Pelicans are going to be able to get the win. The Clippers have been a much better team at home – posting a record of 25-16 – than they’ve been on the road. The Pelicans have been a really bad team away from home.

Winner: Clippers

First Round

Eastern Conference:

Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra looks on against the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Cleveland vs. No. 1 Miami (53-29)

I think Miami is a vulnerable No. 1 seed. The Heat’s point differential is only second in the East, and sixth in the entire league. I’m not 100% convinced Miami is going to take care of business in this matchup. I think Cleveland is an ascending team. The Cavaliers arguably have two young stars in Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. I think Cleveland could make this an interesting series, but I’ll pick Miami to win. The Heat have an excellent veteran trio of Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo, and then two more solid players in Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo. Miami might have its hands full in this series, but I still like it to advance.

Prediction: Heat in six

Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) drives with the ball against Toronto Raptors guard Gary Trent Jr (33) in the third quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports


No. 5 Toronto (48-34) vs. No. 4 Philadelphia (51-31)

I respect what Toronto has been able to put together since losing Leonard in 2019. The Raptors have hardly missed a beat the last three seasons. However, I don’t think Pascal Siam, Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., and OG Anunoby are going to cut it come playoff time. Philadelphia has two of the best players in the game with James Harden and Joel Embiid. I don’t think Toronto will have an answer for Embiid, who just became the first center to win the scoring title in over 20 years. Philadelphia has also played well since acquiring Harden – losing only nine games since Feb. 10.

Prediction: 76ers in seven

Milwaukee Bucks guard Pat Connaughton (24) and center Bobby Portis (9) reacts in the 2nd quarter during game against Boston Celtics at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports


No. 6 Chicago (46-36) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee (51-31)

Chicago won 27 of its first 38 games to start the season. However, the Bulls have dipped in play since that point. They posted a record of 19-25 to end the season. I don’t like the way Chicago has been playing these last few weeks and this seems like a tough draw against Milwaukee in the first round. The Bucks will have the best player on the court in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and a variety of good players to back him up. Milwaukee is also the defending champions and I just don’t see it losing this series. The combination of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine might help the Bulls make this an interesting series, but I expect the Bucks to advance.

Prediction: Bucks in five

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) shoots during the second half against the Brooklyn Nets at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports


No. 7 Brooklyn vs. No. 2 Boston (51-31)

This is probably going to be the most entertaining series of the first-round. Ime Udoka has done a great job in his first season as Boston’s head coach, especially when you consider that the Celtics started the season with a record of 18-21. I’m curious to see how Boston plays in this series since Udoka was an assistant in Brooklyn last year. However, I think this is going to be a difficult series for the Celtics to win without Robert Williams. Brooklyn is going to have the size advantage if Williams doesn’t play, and it’s going to have the two best players on the court in Kevin Durant and Irving. The Nets have also been a completely different team with Irving in the lineup full-time.

Prediction: Nets in six

Western Conference:

Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton (22) shoots over Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports


No. 8 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 1 Phoenix (64-18)

I don’t think this is going to be an easy series for Phoenix, especially if Leonard is healthy for the Clippers. They already have what it takes to possibly pull off an upset, and their chances of winning only increase with Leonard and George on the court. However, I’ll go with the Suns to win this series. Phoenix is just too good. There’s a reason why this team is eight games better than the second-best team in the West this season. I think the Suns have the most star power than any other team in the postseason, and 11 total players that averaged at least 8.0 points per game. I’m not picking against Phoenix this round.

Prediction: Suns in six

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts during the game against the San Antonio Spurs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports


No. 5 Utah (49-33) vs. No. 4 Dallas (52-30)

Utah is a team that always seems to prove me wrong. I’ve picked against the Jazz in the postseason on more than one occasion and they managed to win. I’m going to pick against them again this year, though. I don’t like the way Utah ended the regular season – losers of 11 of its last 21 games. I think is going to be a dangerous team in the West. The Mavericks have played well since December – winning 36 of their last 48 games. Dallas will also have the best player on the court in Luka Doncic. I anticipate this to be a very competitive series, but I like the Mavericks to get it done.

Prediction: Mavericks in six

Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) drives to the basket as Orlando Magic guard R.J. Hampton (13) defends during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports


No. 6 Denver (48-34) vs. No. 3 Golden State (53-29)

If Denver was healthy, I think this would be a very compelling series. Michael Porter Jr. has played in only nine games this season, though, and Jamal Murray is still recovering after tearing his ACL this time last year. Both are unlikely to return to the Nuggets in time for the playoffs. I think it’s too much to ask Nikola Jokic to lead a shorthanded Denver team to a first-round upset against an experienced veteran team like Golden State. Jokic will be a problem for the Warriors down low, but I expect the combination of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to be too much for the Nuggets’ backcourt.

Prediction: Warriors in five

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) drives to the basket as New York Knicks center Jericho Sims (45) defends during the second half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports


No. 7 Minnesota vs. No. 2 Memphis (56-26)

I think this could be a sneaky good series. Like Cleveland, Minnesota is an ascending team with a few talented young players. The Timberwolves are arguably going to have the best player on the court, too, in Karl-Anthony Towns. He’s going to be a problem for Memphis’ front court. The Grizzlies also have one of the best young players in the game in Ja Morant. The main reason why I like Memphis to win this series, though, is because it’s a very well-rounded team. Morant has missed 25 games this season and the Grizzlies managed to win 20 of those games without him. Minnesota ought to make this a competitive series, but Memphis is the better overall team and should move on.

Prediction: Grizzlies in six

Second Round

Eastern Conference:

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) reacts during the second quarter of the game against the Milwaukee Bucks at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports


No. 4 Philadelphia vs. No. 1 Miami

I think the upset is very much in play in this matchup. I already said how much adding Harden has benefitted Philadelphia this season. The 76ers also have a good head coach in Doc Rivers. I think this series is going to go to a Game 7, and I’m going to give Miami the slight advantage. The Heat match up well with Philadelphia. The key to slowing down the 76ers is to limit Embiid’s production and I think Miami will be able to do that with Adebayo guarding him. The Heat are also one of the best defensive teams in the league – ranking No. 5 in defensive efficiency.

Prediction: Heat in seven

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dribbles the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers during the fourth quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports


No. 7 Brooklyn vs. No. 3 Milwaukee

I think Brooklyn is going to be a dangerous team in the postseason. The Nets have way too much talent on their roster and are much better than what their seed would indicate. In what’s going to be a rematch of one of the better postseason series from last year, I’m sure Brooklyn will have plenty of motivation this time around after losing a year ago. However, I doubt the Nets can win multiple playoff series in a row. With Milwaukee having home-court advantage and arguably the best player on the court in Antetokounmpo, I think the Bucks have what it takes to send Brooklyn home for a second-straight postseason.

Prediction: Bucks in seven

Western Conference:

Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) bring the ball up the court in the third quarter against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports


No. 4 Dallas vs. No. 1 Phoenix

Even though Phoenix has been excellent all season, I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out Dallas in this matchup. The Mavericks have been playing really good basketball the last few weeks and Doncic has averaged 31.1 points per game in his last 30 games. If Doncic stays hot, Dallas could be a very tough out for the Suns. I doubt the Mavericks have enough scorers and depth outside of Doncic, though. Phoenix not only has one of the deepest rosters in the league, but it’s also one of the best defensive teams – ranking No. 3 in defensive efficiency. I have to go with the Suns.

Prediction: Suns in five

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) dribbles during the second quarter against the LA Clippers at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports


No. 3 Golden State vs. No. 2 Memphis

While Memphis has been the better team all season, I think facing Golden State in the second round is a tough draw. This is the type of matchup where I think playoff experience is going to matter. The Grizzlies are still a very young team. The only experience most of their players have is being in the West’s play-in tournament last year. Now that the Warriors are relatively healthy for a change, I think they’re the better team. Golden State still has the ability to score points with the trio of Curry, Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins. The Warriors are also a great defensive team – ranking No. 2 in defensive efficiency. I’m going to be a little bold and pick Golden State to get the upset.

Prediction: Warriors in six

Eastern Conference Finals

Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) brings the ball up the court against the Houston Rockets during the first half at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports


No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 1 Miami

I’m not convinced Milwaukee can replicate its magic from last season, which ended with the Bucks winning their first championship in 50 years. I also don’t get the sense that Milwaukee is talented enough to win back-to-back titles. This might surprise people, but I’m actually going to pick Miami to win this series. I think the Heat have what it takes to get to the Finals. Adebayo will be able to defend Antetokounmpo. I also really like Miami’s depth. The Heat have two players that average over 20 points per game, and then 10 more players that average between 19.1 and 7.0 points per game. Miami’s ability to score and its depth is going to be a problem for the Bucks over the course of a seven-game series.

Prediction: Heat in seven

Western Conference Finals

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) gestures to the crowd in the fourth quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports


No. 3 Golden State vs. No. 1 Phoenix

Five years ago, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick Golden State to win the West and move on to the Finals despite not having home-court advantage. Those days are in the rearview mirror, though. The Warriors team that won three championships in five years is much older now. I think the torch has been passed to a team like Phoenix in the West. The Suns have three of the better players in the league in Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges. That doesn’t even include veteran Chris Paul. I think Phoenix is the more talented and more well-rounded team and I think it’s going to be able to get back to the Finals for the second-straight year.

Prediction: Suns in six

2022 NBA Finals

Miami vs. Phoenix

I actually think that these have been the most well-rounded teams in the NBA this season, so it makes sense that I have them competing in the Finals. Both have a good combination of star power and depth. They also play well on both ends of the court. If this ends up being the matchup we get in the Finals, I think it’d be a very entertaining series. I may like Miami to get this far, but I don’t like it to win this matchup. Phoenix is just too talented. Today’s game is all about star power, specifically at the guard position, and the Suns easily have the better backcourt with Paul and Booker. I’m struggling to see an area of the game that the Heat will be able to exploit in order to win it all. Plus, after blowing a 2-0 lead in the Finals last year, I can’t help but shake the feeling that Phoenix has unfinished business. I really like the Suns to win their first championship.

Prediction: Suns in six
Finals MVP: Devin Booker

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2021-22 NBA season predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Man, I don’t drop character ’till I done the DVD commentary.”

– Kirk Lazarus, “Tropic Thunder” (2008)

It occurred to me a few weeks ago that I haven’t done NBA season predictions since the 2017-18 season. I feel compelled to remedy that. I’ll admit that, after the last few years, I was beginning to lose interest in the NBA. However, I actually thoroughly enjoyed watching last year’s postseason. I can’t explain why, but I found myself really interested in watching because it wasn’t the usual teams in the running for the championship. I liked watching Phoenix and Milwaukee, two cities that don’t have the best history, compete for the championship. I have a soft spot for the little guy, especially in historically top-heavy professional sports league like the NBA.

Like the NHL, the NBA is set to have its first “normal” regular season since 2018-19. The COVID-19 pandemic paused the 2019-20 season – resulting in “the bubble” for the playoffs – and last year was also shortened. This season should be the usual 82-game schedule for all 30 teams. The one main difference is that it appears that the league is keeping the “play-in tournament” that it implemented last season. What that means is that teams that finish No. 7-10 in each conference have to play a small tournament in order to get the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds. That honestly feels a bit much because way too many teams make the NBA postseason as it is. You’re really telling me that two thirds of the league deserves to make the postseason? I just don’t believe it.

It’s time for my NBA season predictions for the first time in three years.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) brings the ball up court against the LA Clippers during the first quarter in game three in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Major award winners predictions:

Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic, Dallas
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Utah
Sixth Man of the Year: Jordan Clarkson, Utah
Rookie of the Year: Cade Cunningham, Detroit

Eastern Conference

Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant (7) brings the ball up court against the Philadelphia 76ers during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
EastTeamRecord
1Brooklyn Nets60-22
2Milwaukee Bucks58-24
3Philadelphia 76ers54-28
4Miami Heat52-30
5Atlanta Hawks46-36
6Indiana Pacers43-39
7Boston Celtics*42-40
8New York Knicks*41-41
9Chicago Bulls*39-43
10Charlotte Hornets*37-45
11Toronto Raptors31-51
12Washington Wizards31-51
13Detroit Pistons25-57
14Cleveland Cavaliers24-58
15Orlando Magic21-61
Price’s Eastern Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)

I think the East really comes down to Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, and even then the 76ers feel like a distant third. I know that the Bucks won the East last year, but I feel like that was mostly because the Nets sustained a lot of injuries. With Kevin Durant healthy, I expect Brooklyn to be the top team in the East, especially if/when Kyrie Irving is allowed in the facility. Milwaukee ought to finish second, maybe even first. It still has the best player in the conference in Giannis Antetokounmpo, which goes a long way in the NBA. I expect Philadelphia to finish third, but I could easily see it finishing worse than that given the Ben Simmons situation. The 76ers still have one of the better rosters in the league and one of the better head coaches in Doc Rivers, though. I expect them to be in the mix.

After those three teams, it kind of becomes a log jam of teams in the East. After the addition of Kyle Lowry, I think Miami to finish fourth, and it might even finish higher than that spot. Lowry could give the Heat exactly what they need to compliment Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, and Bam Adebayo. Then, I like Atlanta to finish in fifth. It felt like the Hawks arrived during last year’s deep playoff run. Trae Young is one of the best scorers in the NBA, but I do doubt their depth after him. Indiana, Boston, and New York will probably be battling for sixth place, and I’m going to give the advantage to the Pacers. They don’t have a great roster, but I respect their front office and Rick Carlisle as a head coach.

I expect the play-in tournament in the East to be between Boston, New York, Chicago, and Charlotte. The Celtics could easily finish higher in the standings, but they don’t really have a reliable point guard and are breaking in a new head coach. The Knicks were one of the better stories last year, but they’re probably going to take a step back because of they lack the ability to consistently score. The Bulls might be one of the most improved teams in the league after the additions of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan, but they still have some holes on their roster. The Hornets have a few guys that can score, but I just don’t see them being able to be much better than their 33-39 record from last year.

Western Conference

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against the Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
WestTeamRecord
1Phoenix Suns57-25
2Utah Jazz55-27
3Dallas Mavericks50-32
4Denver Nuggets49-33
5Los Angeles Lakers48-34
6Golden State Warriors47-35
7Los Angeles Clippers*46-36
8Portland Trail Blazers*44-38
9New Orleans Pelicans41-41
10Memphis Grizzlies40-42
11Sacramento Kings38-44
12Minnesota Timberwolves33-49
13San Antonio Spurs30-52
14Houston Rockets25-57
15Oklahoma City Thunder23-59
Price’s Western Conference projections (* play-in tournament teams)

As usual, I expect the West to be more competitive than the East. I could probably see maybe four or five teams winning the West – Phoenix, Utah, Dallas, the Lakers, and Denver. Ever since the Suns went 8-0 in “the bubble” in 2020 during the pandemic, they’ve shown zero signs of slowing down. They went from going undefeated in “the bubble” to winning 51 games and the Western Conference last year, and I expect them to finish first this season. Between Phoenix and Utah, I’d say it’s close which of those teams has more depth. The Jazz felt like a team that overperformed in the regular season last year. I think they’ll take a slight step back because of that. The Mavericks have a top three player in basketball in Doncic and they’re going to win a lot of games with him, but I have my reservations about Jason Kidd as their head coach. Despite having them finishing fourth, I still think the Nuggets are going to be in the mix in the West. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Denver makes it to the Finals in June. I consider the Lakers to be a contender in the West only because of LeBron James. I think we’ll see the Lakers closer to 2020 form when they won the championship, but I also think this season could go sideways for them because they’ve assembled the oldest roster in the NBA this season.

Golden State and the Clippers have roughly the same problem as the Lakers. They have some aging star power and I think the rest of the teams in the West have surpassed them. I have the Warriors finishing fifth because they have a little bit more reliable scoring depth with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and I think James Wiseman could take a big step forward in his second year. When Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined the Clippers in 2019, we all expected them to be one of the top teams in the West and compete for the championship. The problem is that the Clippers haven’t been able to do that. In fact, they haven’t even really sniffed the Finals. Until I see it happen, I don’t think the Clippers are going to ever put it together, and I definitely don’t think it’ll happen with Tyronn Lue as the their head coach.

Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans are all about the same team. They each have at least one star player, but not much else to help him out. The Trail Blazers easily have the best player of these three teams in Damian Lillard, and maybe even the best No. 2 option in C.J. McCollum. I feel pretty confident Portland will finish higher than Memphis and New Orleans. I think the Pelicans will be a little improved from last year’s team that finished 11th in the conference. They have two quality scoring options in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Entering his third year, Williamson might be able to improve on his 27 points per game from last year. The Pelicans aren’t a very good defensive team, though, and I don’t think they’ll be much better. The Grizzlies have one of the best young players in the NBA in Ja Morant, who has averaged 18.4 points per game the last two seasons, but I don’t think they have any reliable scoring outside of him. Similar to last year, I think Morant is good enough to get Memphis to the play-in tournament, but it doesn’t have what it takes to make a deep run.

2022 NBA Finals

Phoenix vs. Brooklyn

I really want to pick Phoenix to win it all, but I’m just not sure it’s going to have enough if it comes across Brooklyn in the Finals. If healthy, I think the Nets are the best team in basketball. They just have too much star power with Durant, Irving, James Harden, Joe Harris, Blake Griffin, and LaMarcus Aldridge. I think they should be considered the favorites to win it all this year, especially if Irving comes back in the fold. Even without him, I think the additions of Patty Mills and Paul Millsap ought to give Brooklyn sufficient depth to make a run at the title.

Prediction: Nets in six

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

NBA, NHL need to do away with draft lotteries

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Everyone should hold a gun at least a couple times.”

– Officer Michaels, “Superbad” (2007)

A general view of the stage prior to the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery at the Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

The recent National Basketball Association and National Hockey League’s draft lotteries reminded me of something that I’ve felt passionately about for years and haven’t written about it on this blog – draft lotteries are stupid. Let’s be honest, the draft lotteries only exist because they’re unpredictable and people are willing to tune in and watch what unfolds. As much as people probably won’t admit it, they want to see dysfunction – particularly sports fans. That’s what makes headlines, gets clicks, and creates talking points. Personally, I think that’s the only reason why the NBA and NHL have draft lotteries. They know that they’ll never get the viewership numbers that the National Football League gets with its draft. So what’s the best way for the NBA and NHL to try and get viewers? By creating dysfunction. People want to laugh at a team like the New York Knicks – who haven’t had the best luck in the lottery in recent years – fail to get the No. 1 pick. The people also love to see a borderline playoff team like the New York Rangers – I know that they technically made the playoffs this year, but they probably wouldn’t have in a normal season – get lucky and win the No. 1 pick.

In my opinion, the NBA and NHL need to get rid of the draft lottery system. For starters, I don’t see what’s fair about only the teams that don’t make the playoffs being eligible for the No. 1 overall pick in their respected drafts. If there’s going to be a lottery, I feel like the playoff teams and league champions should also be eligible for the No. 1 pick. If the back half of the NBA and NHL’s draft order is currently determined by reverse order of overall record – like the way the NFL and Major League Baseball determine their draft orders – then they should do it for their entire draft order. To truly understand how screwed up the draft lottery concept is, I went back five years and collected some data.

Zion Williamson (Duke) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number one overall pick to the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

2016: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia 76ers (10-72)
2. Los Angeles Lakers – Los Angeles Lakers (17-65)
3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) – Brooklyn Nets (21-61)
4. Phoenix Suns – Phoenix Suns (23-59)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves – Minnesota Timberwolves (29-53)
6. New Orleans Pelicans – New Orleans Pelicans (30-52)
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York) – New York Knicks (32-50)
8. Sacramento Kings – Milwaukee Bucks (33-49)
9. Toronto Raptors (from Denver via New York) – Denver Nuggets (33-49)
10. Milwaukee Bucks – Sacramento Kings (33-49)
11. Orlando Magic (from Oklahoma City) – Orlando Magic (35-47)
12. Utah Jazz – Utah Jazz (40-42)
13. Phoenix Suns – Washington Wizards (41-41)
14. Chicago Bulls – Chicago Bulls (42-40)

2017: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Philadelphia 76ers (from Brooklyn via Boston) – Brooklyn Nets (20-62)
2. Los Angeles Lakers – Phoenix Suns (24-58)
3. Boston Celtics (from Sacramento via Philadelphia) – Los Angeles Lakers (26-56)
4. Phoenix Suns – Philadelphia 76ers (28-54)
5. Sacramento Kings (from Philadelphia) – Orlando Magic (29-53)
6. Orlando Magic – Minnesota Timberwolves (31-51)
7. Minnesota Timberwolves – New York Knicks (31-51)
8. New York Knicks – Sacramento Kings (32-50)
9. Dallas Mavericks – Dallas Mavericks (33-49)
10. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans) – New Orleans Pelicans (34-48)
11. Charlotte Hornets – Charlotte Hornets (36-46)
12. Detroit Pistons – Detroit Pistons (37-45)
13. Denver Nuggets – Denver Nuggets (40-42)
14. Miami Heat – Miami Heat (41-41)

2018: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Phoenix Suns – Phoenix Suns (21-61)
2. Sacramento Kings – Memphis Grizzlies (22-60)
3. Atlanta Hawks – Atlanta Hawks (24-58)
4. Memphis Grizzlies – Dallas Mavericks (24-58)
5. Dallas Mavericks – Orlando Magic (25-57)
6. Orlando Magic – Chicago Bulls (27-55)
7. Chicago Bulls – Sacramento Kings (27-55)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Brooklyn via Boston) – Brooklyn Nets (28-54)
9. New York Knicks – New York Knicks (29-53)
10. Philadelphia 76ers (from Los Angeles Lakers via Phoenix) – Los Angeles Lakers (35-47)
11. Charlotte Hornets – Charlotte Hornets (36-46)
12. Los Angeles Clippers (from Detroit) – Detroit Pistons (39-43)
13. Los Angeles Clippers – Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
14. Denver Nuggets – Denver Nuggets (46-36)

2019: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. New Orleans Pelicans – New York Knicks (17-65)
2. Memphis Grizzlies – Phoenix Suns (19-63)
3. New York Knicks – Cleveland Cavaliers (19-63)
4. Los Angeles Lakers – Chicago Bulls (22-60)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers – Atlanta Hawks (29-53)
6. Phoenix Suns – Washington Wizards (32-50)
7. Chicago Bulls – Dallas Mavericks (33-49)
8. Atlanta Hawks – New Orleans Pelicans (33-49)
9. Washington Wizards – Memphis Grizzlies (33-49)
10. Atlanta Hawks (from Dallas) – Minnesota Timberwolves (36-46)
11. Minnesota Timberwolves – Los Angeles Lakers (37-45)
12. Charlotte Hornets – Miami Heat (39-43)
13. Miami Heat – Charlotte Hornets (39-43)
14. Boston Celtics (from Sacramento via Philadelphia) – Sacramento Kings (39-43)

2020: NBA draft lottery – NBA reverse standings:

1. Minnesota Timberwolves – Golden State Warriors (15-50)
2. Golden State Warriors – Cleveland Cavaliers (19-46)
3. Charlotte Hornets – Minnesota Timberwolves (19-45)
4. Chicago Bulls – Atlanta Hawks (20-47)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers – Detroit Pistons (20-46)
6. Atlanta Hawks – New York Knicks (21-45)
7. Detroit Pistons – Chicago Bulls (22-43)
8. New York Knicks – Washington Wizards (25-47)
9. Washington Wizards – Charlotte Hornets (23-42)
10. Phoenix Suns – New Orleans Pelicans (30-42)
11. San Antonio Spurs – Sacramento Kings (31-41)
12. Sacramento Kings – San Antonio Spurs (32-39)
13. New Orleans Pelicans – Phoenix Suns (34-39)
14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis) – Memphis Grizzlies (34-39)

The data that I found the last five years regarding the NBA draft lottery showed that even if a team finishes in the bottom five in the league’s standings, its odds to get a top-five pick aren’t as good as one would think. Before I get into it, I want to point out just how important having a top-five pick is in the NBA. It’s my theory that in an average year – out of 60 total draft picks – there are only maybe three to five prospects that are truly ready to play at a high level. That’s why getting a top-five draft pick is so valuable because it greatly increases a team’s chances of getting one of those top players that can turn a franchise around. In my research, though, I found that in the last five years just 18 teams that finished in the bottom five of the league’s standings ended up getting a top-five draft pick, and only eight times did one of those teams get the draft pick with the value that equaled where it finished the standings. What that means for future reference is that, going off the last five years, a team that finishes in the bottom five of the league’s standings has just a 72% chance of getting a top-five draft pick and just a 32% chance of getting the draft value that equals where that team finished in the league’s standings. You think that’s bad? Take a look at the NHL.

Jack Hughes puts on a team jersey after being selected as the number one overall pick to the New Jersey Devils in the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

2016: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto Maple Leafs (29-42-11; 69 points)
2. Winnipeg Jets – Edmonton Oilers (31-43-8; 70)
3. Columbus Blue Jackets – Vancouver Canucks (31-38-13; 75)
4. Edmonton Oilers – Columbus Blue Jackets (34-40-8; 76)
5. Vancouver Canucks – Calgary Flames (35-40-7; 77)
6. Calgary Flames – Winnipeg Jets (35-39-8; 78)
7. Arizona Coyotes – Arizona Coyotes (35-39-8; 78)
8. Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo Sabres (35-36-11; 81)
9. Montreal Canadiens – Montreal Canadiens (38-38-6; 82)
10. Colorado Avalanche – Colorado Avalanche (39-39-4; 82)
11. New Jersey Devils – New Jersey Devils (38-36-8; 84)
12. Ottawa Senators – Ottawa Senators (38-35-9; 85)
13. Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina Hurricanes (35-31-16; 86)
14. Boston Bruins – Boston Bruins (42-31-9; 93)

2017: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. New Jersey Devils – Colorado Avalanche (22-56-4; 48)
2. Philadelphia Flyers – Vancouver Canucks (30-43-9; 69)
3. Dallas Stars – Arizona Coyotes (30-42-10; 70)
4. Colorado Avalanche – New Jersey Devils (28-40-14; 70)
5. Vancouver Canucks – Buffalo Sabres (33-37-12; 78)
6. Vegas Golden Knights
7. New York Rangers (from Arizona) – Detroit Red Wings (33-36-13; 79)
8. Buffalo Sabres – Dallas Stars (34-37-11; 79)
9. Detroit Red Wings – Florida Panthers (35-36-11; 81)
10. Florida Panthers – Los Angeles Kings (39-35-8; 86)
11. Los Angeles Kings – Carolina Hurricanes (36-31-15; 87)
12. Carolina Hurricanes – Winnipeg Jets (40-35-7; 87)
13. Vegas Golden Knights (from Winnipeg) – Philadelphia Flyers (39-33-10; 88)
14. Tampa Bay Lightning – Tampa Bay Lightning (42-30-10; 94)
15. Vegas Golden Knights (from New York Islanders) – New York Islanders (41-29-12; 94)

2018: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo Sabres (25-45-12; 62)
2. Carolina Hurricanes – Ottawa Senators (28-43-11; 67)
3. Montreal Canadiens – Arizona Coyotes (29-41-12; 70)
4. Ottawa Senators – Montreal Canadiens (29-40-13; 71)
5. Arizona Coyotes – Detroit Red Wings (30-39-13; 73)
6. Detroit Red Wings – Vancouver Canucks (31-40-11; 73)
7. Vancouver Canucks – Chicago Blackhawks (33-39-10; 76)
8. Chicago Blackhawks – New York Rangers (34-39-9; 77)
9. New York Rangers – Edmonton Oilers (36-40-6; 78)
10. Edmonton Oilers – New York Islanders (35-37-10; 80)
11. New York Islanders – Carolina Hurricanes (36-35-11; 83)
12. New York Islanders (from Calgary) – Calgary Flames (37-35-10; 84)
13. Dallas Stars – Dallas Stars (42-32-8; 92)
14. Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis) – St. Louis Blues (44-32-6; 94)
15. Florida Panthers – Florida Panthers (44-30-8; 96)

2019: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. New Jersey Devils – Ottawa Senators (29-47-6; 64)
2. New York Rangers – Los Angeles Kings (31-42-9; 71)
3. Chicago Blackhawks – New Jersey Devils (31-41-10; 72)
4. Colorado Avalanche (from Ottawa) – Detroit Red Wings (32-40-10; 74)
5. Los Angeles Kings – Buffalo Sabres (33-39-10; 76)
6. Detroit Red Wings – New York Rangers (32-36-14; 78)
7. Buffalo Sabres – Edmonton Oilers (35-38-9; 79)
8. Edmonton Oilers – Anaheim Ducks (35-37-10; 80)
9. Anaheim Ducks – Vancouver Canucks (35-36-11; 81)
10. Vancouver Canucks – Philadelphia Flyers (37-37-8; 82)
11. Philadelphia Flyers – Minnesota Wild (36-36-9; 83)
12. Minnesota Wild – Chicago Blackhawks (36-34-12; 84)
13. Florida Panthers – Florida Panthers (36-32-14; 86)
14. Arizona Coyotes – Arizona Coyotes (39-35-8; 86)
15. Montreal Canadiens – Montreal Canadiens (44-30-8; 96)

2020: NHL draft lottery – NHL reverse standings:

1. New York Rangers – Detroit Red Wings (17-54-5; 39)
2. Los Angeles Kings – Ottawa Senators (25-46-12; 62)
3. Ottawa Senators (from San Jose) – San Jose Sharks (29-41-5; 63)
4. Detroit Red Wings – Los Angeles Kings (29-41-6; 64)
5. Ottawa Senators – Anaheim Ducks (29-42-9; 67)
6. Anaheim Ducks – New Jersey Devils (28-41-12; 68)
7. New Jersey Devils – Buffalo Sabres (30-39-8; 68)
8. Buffalo Sabres – Montreal Canadiens (31-40-9; 71)
9. Minnesota Wild – Chicago Blackhawks (32-38-8; 72)
10. Winnipeg Jets – Arizona Coyotes (33-37-8; 74)
11. Nashville Predators – Minnesota Wild (35-34-7; 77)
12. Florida Panthers – Nashville Predators (35-34-8; 78)
13. Carolina Hurricanes (from Toronto) – Florida Panthers (35-34-8; 78)
14. Edmonton Oilers – Vancouver Canucks (36-33-6; 78)
15. Pittsburgh Penguins – Calgary Flames (36-34-7; 79)

I won’t sit here and argue that there’s an average of just three to five players in a given NHL draft that are ready to play at a high level. That’s simply not true, but there are just a handful of players that can provide immediate quality support to the team that drafted them. Those players are almost exclusively drafted within the first five picks on a yearly basis, though, and the rest are sent to the team’s minor league affiliate to develop for a few years. In my research, I found that the NHL draft lottery has been much worse to the teams that have finished in the bottom five of the league’s standings than the ones in the NBA. In the last five years, the teams that finished in the bottom five of the league’s standings have a 72% chance of getting a top-five draft pick – that number was just 70% prior to this year – and only a 12% chance of getting the draft value that equaled where that team finished in the standings.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman speaks before the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

In conclusion:

I just can’t bring myself to wrap my brain around the concept of a draft lottery. I can kind of understand it from the standpoint that it somewhat helps avoid teams tanking. I’ll agree that tanking isn’t a good look for any professional sports league. However, I just don’t see how the lottery is fair to the cellar dwellers that are in the draft lottery on a yearly basis. I think the bad teams should be able to draft the best players every year without pure luck and chance getting in the way. I don’t like seeing borderline playoff teams get lucky because their lottery ball wasn’t selected at random until later in the evening. I’ll concede that it does make the draft process more compelling, but I don’t like leaving something as monumental as drafting a player that can turn the fate of an organization’s future around up to chance. I don’t think it’s fair that those borderline playoff teams can take that opportunity from the cellar dwellers. In my opinion, I don’t think it creates parity whatsoever. In my time in grad school, I took a class about finance, and came to the conclusion that professional sports leagues with the most parity usually make the most revenue. According to Ultimate Corporate League, the NFL collects over $13 billion, MLB accrues $9.5 billion, and the English Premier League makes $5.3 billion in revenue. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that those leagues either have the most parity, and also make the most money at the same time. In comparison, the NBA ranks fourth behind those leagues with $4.8 billion, the NHL is fifth with $3.7 billion, and the Bundesliga is sixth with $2.8 billion. I think the best way to get more parity and create more revenue in a professional sports league is by spreading out the talent and giving every team a better chance of winning, and I don’t think a draft lottery is the way to do that.

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter

2018 NBA postseason predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“When I was your age, they would say, we could become cops, or criminals. Today, what I’m saying to you is this: When you’re facing a loaded gun, what’s the difference?”

– Francis “Frank” Costello, “The Departed” (2006)

The NBA postseason officially starts tomorrow. This is a time of year that I’ve always enjoyed since I was a kid. I think the thing that makes the NBA postseason unique is that you throw the stats out the window because more than likely the team with the better player on the court is going to always win. There are some first-round matchups this year that I find intriguing – Toronto-Washington, Philadelphia-Miami, Boston-Milwaukee, Houston-Minnesota, Portland-New Orleans, and Oklahoma City-Utah. I think there might even be an upset or two in the first round – something that’s rare for the NBA – but, as always, the championship is going to come down to three or four teams. That’s not going to stop me from releasing my postseason predictions though.

Eastern Conference standings:
1. Toronto Raptors (59-23)
2. Boston Celtics (55-27)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (52-30)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32)
5. Indiana Pacers (48-34)
6. Miami Heat (44-38)
7. Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)
8. Washington Wizards (43-39)

Western Conference standings:
1. Houston Rockets (65-17)
2. Golden State Warriors (58-24)
3. Portland Trail Blazers (49-33)
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (48-34)
5. Utah Jazz (48-34)
6. New Orleans Pelicans (48-34)
7. San Antonio Spurs (47-35)
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (47-35)

First round:

Eastern Conference

Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) shoots for a basket against the Denver Nuggets in the second half at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 8 Washington Wizards

I actually feel like this could end up being a competitive series. It’s a guard-driven league and both teams have excellent guards with Kyle Lowry/DeMar DeRozan for Toronto and John Wall/Bradley Beal for Washington. Both teams are pretty much even offensively because of that. Toronto has been the better team this season, but Washington is no stranger to the postseason – having made it three of the last four years. I’m going to give the edge to Toronto though. The Raptors are top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency, whereas Washington is No. 15. Toronto also has more size and is a better rebounding team. I think the Wizards make it somewhat interesting, but Toronto should advance.

Prediction: Raptors in six

Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) reacts in the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Indiana Pacers

Once again, Cleveland underperforms in the regular season and is one of the worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency. I’ve fallen for this trick before and picked against LeBron James in the postseason a few years ago. After I was proven wrong and looked like a fool, I swore I would never do it again and there will be no change this year. The Cavaliers always find a way to kick it in gear when the postseason starts and actually finished the regular season strong – with a record of 11-3 in their last 14 games. Bottom line, in order to beat Cleveland, you have to prevent James from scoring too many points and I don’t think the Pacers have anyone on their roster that can guard him.

Prediction: Cavaliers in four

Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (25) passes the ball to forward Ersan Ilyasova (not pictured) during the second quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Miami Heat

A part of me is a little worrisome about the 76ers though because of their youth. Miami has more playoff experience on its roster, including a better head coach in Erik Spoelstra. I’m just not sure Miami has what it takes to upend the 76ers right now though. Philadelphia has been on a tear in recent weeks – winners of 16 in a row – Ben Simmons is playing out of his mind, Markelle Fultz has finally got going, and Joel Embiid could be healthy in time for this series. The Heat have a slight advantage with their backcourt in Goran Tragic and Dwyane Wade, but they still don’t have anyone that can guard Simmons, which is a huge disadvantage. Philadelphia is more athletic and the better defensive team. I like the 76ers to move on, but I think this series will go the distance.

Prediction: 76ers in seven

Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens looks on during the second half of their 112-106 loss to the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks

Generally, my rule for the NBA postseason is to pick whichever team has the better player on its roster. Since Boston will be without Kyrie Irving, I have to give that advantage to Milwaukee and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Even though Boston is one of the league’s best in defensive efficiency, it doesn’t have anyone on its roster that will be able to defend Antetokounmpo over the course of a series. The Celtics have a good run this season and they arguably have a deeper roster than Milwaukee, but this team isn’t going anywhere without Irving in the starting lineup. I hate picking against Brad Stevens, but since Milwaukee has guys like Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Eric Bledsoe, I’ll take the Bucks to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Bucks in six

Western Conference

Houston Rockets guard Chris Paul (3) handles the ball against the Washington Wizards during the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota might end up being a tricky No. 8 seed to face. The Timberwolves are talented and have a coach with playoff experience. The only reason they’re in this position is because of injuries, they would’ve been a higher seed had Jimmy Butler stayed healthy. Now that Butler is back, I think Minnesota could be a team to watch. Houston has the clear edge in the backcourt with Chris Paul and James Harden, but Minnesota has a player that the Rockets will not be able to guard in Karl-Anthony Townes, and a wing that could be trouble in Andrew Wiggins. I think the Timberwolves keep this series fairly competitive, but they’re still very young and Houston has been playing too well this season.

Prediction: Rockets in five

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) brings the ball up the court against the Golden State Warriors during the third quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz

This is probably the biggest coin flip of all the first round matchups. On paper, Oklahoma City is far and away the better team. The Thunder have three great players in Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, and even Steven Adams is a solid fourth option. The problem is that Oklahoma City hasn’t been able to piece that talent together this season. Utah has been a surprisingly good team throughout the year and made the playoffs when no one (including myself) thought it would. The Jazz are probably the better team, but they lack the star players and are pretty young – their best player, and leading scorer, being a rookie. Even though OKC’s talent hasn’t quite come together this season, I’m giving the Thunder a very slight edge in this series. They have playoff experience and a pretty good coach in Billy Donovan, but the star players are a huge advantage in the postseason.

Prediction: Thunder in seven

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts in the second half against the LA Clippers at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans

I think this is another series that could end up being competitive. New Orleans will have the better player on the court in this series in Anthony Davis and I don’t think Portland has anyone on its roster that will be able to guard him. However, Davis is all the Pelicans have. New Orleans doesn’t have the guards to match up with Portland’s backcourt. Davis will likely get his, but in today’s NBA, it’s all about guard play and I expect Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to put up big numbers in this matchup. The Trail Blazers are also a good defensive team with a much better head coach and will have home-court advantage. I think too much is going against the Pelicans in this series.

Prediction: Trail Blazers in six

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (22) winks at the crowd during a break in the action against the Denver Nuggets in the first quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs

Since the 2015-2016 season, Golden State has beat San Antonio 11 times in 15 meetings – and one of those losses was this season when Golden State was banged up. San Antonio just doesn’t match up with Golden State at all. Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills won’t be able to guard Steph Curry (who might miss this series due to injury) and Klay Thompson in the backcourt, and Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili definitely won’t be able to because they’re too old. If Kawhi Leonard were playing, that would at least give the Spurs someone that could guard Kevin Durant, but even then that wouldn’t be enough. However, it’s unclear if Leonard is even going to play and I’m struggling to see San Antonio win a single game because of that.

Prediction: Warriors in four

Second round:

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers center Kevin Love (0) rebounds in the first quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Like I said above, the way to defeat Cleveland is to have someone that can guard LeBron James and prevent him from scoring too many baskets. Toronto doesn’t have anyone on its roster that will be able to do that, so James is going to put up big numbers in this series. I don’t think Cleveland will get a sweep though. The Raptors have an advantage in the backcourt with their guards, so I think because of that they will manage to squeak out a win in Toronto, but the Cavaliers should still end this series quickly.

Prediction: Cavaliers in five

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dribbles up court against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks

It’s hard for me to fathom a team as young as Philadelphia getting past the second round, but I just can’t buy into Milwaukee as the team that’s going to knock off the 76ers – just look at Wednesday night when Philadelphia beat Milwaukee by 35 points and had 100 points before the fourth quarter. Sure, the Bucks have a lot of talent, but they haven’t been able to do much with it. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a huge mismatch for the 76ers and he’ll pad his stats in this series, but I’m going to take Philadelphia to advance anyway. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are also huge mismatches for Milwaukee and I don’t the Bucks have anyone that can guard those two through an entire series.

Prediction: 76ers in six

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Paul George (13) passes off the ball against the Toronto Raptors at the Air Canada Centre. Oklahoma City defeated Toronto. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder

Honestly, considering how poorly Oklahoma City has played at times this season, I think I’m being generous picking the Thunder to get this far in the postseason. There’s too many conflicting personalities in that locker room and I don’t see OKC getting any farther than the second round. Houston has been exceptional all season. The Rockets have too much depth, the ability to score quickly, a better head coach, and home-court advantage. I don’t think this series will bode well for the Thunder.

Prediction: Rockets in five

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) celebrates against the Los Angeles Clippers during the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers

Portland will be a tougher opponent for Golden State than San Antonio, but I still don’t expect the Trail Blazers to make this a very competitive series. Even though they have two pretty good guards that should be able to guard the Splash Brothers, they don’t have anyone that will be able to slow down Kevin Durant or Draymond Green – which will ultimately decide the series. I’ll give Portland a win at home, but the Warriors have too much talent and should have no problems advancing to the next round.

Prediction: Warriors in five

Conference finals:

Eastern Conference Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) dunks the ball against the New York Knicks during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

If it comes down to these two teams in the Eastern Conference Finals, I’ll be cheering like hell for the young guys in Philadelphia. Watching Ben Simmons and LeBron James square off would be intriguing. However, the 76ers have too much youth and will be facing a buzz saw in Cleveland. Philadelphia doesn’t have anyone that can guard James and the Cavaliers have too many veterans with a lot of playoff experience. I want to say that the 76ers could win at least one game in this series, but I don’t see it happening. The East always runs through whichever team James plays for and Cleveland has the upper hand in almost every category.

Prediction: Cavaliers in four

Western Conference Finals

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) gestures after scoring during the second quarter against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 Houston Rockets vs. No. 2 Golden State Warriors

My head says to take Houston because the Rockets have been so good this season and Golden State is limping into the playoffs. However, my gut says to take Golden State. When I look at this matchup, I see two teams that are about equal offensively. That’s why I think this series is going to come down to defense, which I give the advantage to the Warriors. I realize that Houston is better in terms of defensive efficiency, but Golden State holds opponents to shoot 44.7 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from 3-point range – ranking in the top 10 in both categories. Plus, I don’t trust any team that has Mike D’Antoni and James Harden because neither puts much of an emphasis on defense. Houston might be able to keep Steph Curry in check, but I don’t think the Rockets have a player that can guard Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green over the course of a series. The Warriors just have too much star power.

Prediction: Warriors in six

2018 NBA Finals

No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

That’s right, I think the NBA Finals is going to come down to Cleveland and Golden State for a fourth-consecutive season – probably not that surprising. These have been the two consistent teams in the NBA the last few years. I don’t expect a different result from last year though. I think the Warriors will win this series and it won’t be that competitive. Cleveland doesn’t match up well with Golden State. The Cavaliers don’t have the backcourt anymore to keep up with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, LeBron James is a pretty good defender but he can’t guard Kevin Durant, Kevin Love is no match for Draymond Green, and I don’t think they have anyone that can provide a spark off the bench. This will probably be another series where James has to win this series by himself to have a chance and he’ll put up ridiculous stats, but in the end, it’ll be no match for Golden State’s team chemistry and offensive firepower. I think the Warriors cruise to win their third title in four years.

Prediction: Warriors in five
Finals MVP: Kevin Durant

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

2017-2018 NBA season predictions

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“Our survival instinct is our single-greatest source of inspiration.”

– Dr. Mann, “Interstellar” (2014)

I’ll be honest, I’m kind of looking forward to the NBA regular season. There were a lot of moves this offseason and I really want to see how those moves play out this season – especially in regards to my Boston Celtics. Honestly, predicting the NBA is probably my least favorite thing to do thought because it’s so predictable. There are about 12 teams that I would consider “locks” to make the playoffs, but it’s still fun to talk about. I’ll start with my predicted winners for the major awards, and then my predictions for the three division winners and the other five teams in each conference that I like to make the playoffs.

Major award winners prediction:

Most Valuable Player: SG James Harden, Houston
Defensive Player of the Year: PF Draymond Green, Golden State
Sixth Man of the Year: SG Jamal Crawford, Minnesota
Rookie of the Year: PG Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers

Eastern Conference division winners:

Boston Celtics guard Kyrie Irving (11) shoots over Charlotte Hornets center Dwight Howard (12) during the first half of a preseason game at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Atlantic – Boston Celtics
2016-2017 record: 53-29
Key additions: PG Kyrie Irving, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Marcus Morris
Key departures: PG Isaiah Thomas, SG Avery Bradley, SF/PF Jae Crowder, C Kelly Olynyk, PF Amir Johnson
2017 draft class: SF Jayson Tatum (Round: 1 Pick: 3), PF Semi Ojeleye (Round: 2 Pick: 37), SG Kadeem Allen (Round: 2 Pick: 53), SG Jabari Bird (Round: 2 Pick: 56)
2016-2017 points per game: 108 (No. 7)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .454 (No. 16)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .359 (No. 14)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.6 (No. 8)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 105.4 (No. 15)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .450 (No. 9)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .332 (No. 2)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.5 (No. 12)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 42 (No. 26)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.8 (No. 21)

Boston is coming off a season where the Celtics won 53 games and got the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics did trade away All-Star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but added Kyrie Irving to replace him – which will be an improvement. Al Horford didn’t turn out to be the player the Celtics expected when they signed him last year, but he’s still a solid veteran presence. They also picked up Gordon Hayward through free agency and drafted Jayson Tatum to help with scoring. This is still a young team that is on the rise and has an excellent young head coach in Brad Stevens. Boston should be able to improve in the win column this season, but losing key defensive pieces like Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Kelly Olynyk is going to hurt.

Prediction: 58-24 (second in the East)

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) drives to the basket against Chicago Bulls guard Paul Zipser (16) during the first half at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Central – Cleveland Cavaliers
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Key additions: PG Isaiah Thomas, PF/SF Jeff Green, PG Derrick Rose, SF/PF Jae Crowder, SG Dwyane Wade
Key departures: PG Kyrie Irving
2017 draft class: N/A
2016-2017 points per game: 110.3 (No. 4)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .470 (No. 5)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .384 (No. 2)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 110.9 (No. 3)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 107.2 (No. 20)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .458 (No. 16)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .361 (No. 18)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 108 (No. 22)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.8 (No. 12)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +1.2 (No. 6)

Despite losing Kyrie Irving, this is still the top team in the East. LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Isaiah Thomas is still a very good “Big Three.” There’s also still capable veterans like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert to play secondary roles on Cleveland’s roster. Plus, the additions of Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder, Derrick Rose, and Jeff Green give this team sufficient depth that the Cavaliers were missing last season.

Prediction: 60-22 (first in the East)

Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) reacts during the second half against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Southeast – Washington Wizards
2016-2017 record: 49-33
Key additions: SG Jodie Meeks, PG Tim Frazier
Key departures: SF/PF Bojan Bogdanovic, PG Trey Burke, PG Brandon Jennings
2017 draft class: N/A
2016-2017 points per game: 109.2 (No. 5)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .475 (No. 3)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .372 (No. 8)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.5 (No. 9)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 107.4 (No. 21)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .466 (No. 24)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .364 (No. 19)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.9 (No. 20)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 42.9 (No. 22)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -1.3 (No. 27)

After Cleveland and Boston, the rest of my playoff teams in the East are kind of in a weird purgatory where they’re decent, but won’t contend for a championship and aren’t bad enough to be in the draft lottery. One of those teams on that list is Washington. I like the Wizards to win the Southeast division mostly because there’s no All-Stars in that division that can compete with Washington’s roster that consists of John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr., Jodie Meeks, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Marcin Gortat. I think 50 wins is fair for this team, but I don’t give Washington much of a chance to get past the second round in the playoffs.

Prediction: 50-32 (fourth in the East)

Other playoff teams in the East:

Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) dribbles as he is guarded by Detroit Pistons forward Reggie Bullock (25) at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Raptors
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Key additions: SG/SF C.J. Miles
Key departures: PF Patrick Patterson, SF DeMarre Carroll, SF P.J. Tucker
2017 draft class: SF/PF OG Anunoby (Round: 1 Pick: 23)
2016-2017 points per game: 106.9 (No. 10)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .464 (No. 11)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .363 (No. 13)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 109.8 (No. 6)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 102.6 (No. 8)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .449 (No. 6)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .354 (No. 11)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 104.9 (No. 8)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.3 (No. 18)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -2.2 (No. 29)

I think Toronto is the biggest threat to Cleveland and Boston in the East. It’s a guard-driven league and the Raptors have two really good ones in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan – both averaged a combined 49.7 points per game last year. However, outside of Serge Ibaka, there’s not much else on Toronto’s roster. The Raptors lack depth – which is going to hurt in the playoffs when they’re trying to compete in the East because both Cleveland and Boston have depth. Having Lowry, DeRozan, and Ibaka is still a good enough trio to get to 50 wins, especially in the East, and I think if this team gets insanely hot or makes a good trade, Toronto is capable of going on a deep run in the postseason.

Prediction: 51-31 (third in the East)

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) brings the ball up court against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA preseason game at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Milwaukee Bucks
2016-2017 record: 42-40
Key additions: N/A
Key departures: N/A
2017 draft class: PF D.J. Wilson (Round: 1 Pick: 17)
2016-2017 points per game: 103.6 (No. 20)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .474 (No. 4)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 106.9 (No. 13)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .370 (No. 10)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 103.8 (No. 9)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .458 (No. 17)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .353 (No. 9)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.4 (No. 17)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 40.4 (No. 29)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.6 (No. 20)

If Jabari Parker can stay healthy – who only played 51 games last year and was averaging 20.1 points per game – I really like Milwaukee to get to 50 wins and potentially wreak some havoc in the postseason. Think about it, the Bucks already have, in my opinion, a perennial All-Star in Giannis Antetokounmpo, good veterans like Khris Middleton and Greg Monroe, and a point guard with a very bright future in Malcolm Brogdon – who was NBA Rookie of the Year last season. Milwaukee also has a good coach with Jason Kidd. However, Parker has struggled to stay healthy since he entered the NBA, and I’m not crazy about the depth for the Bucks.

Prediction: 48-34 (fifth in the East)

Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) looks on against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Pistons
2016-2017 record: 37-45
Key additions: SG Avery Bradley, PG/SG Langston Galloway, PF Anthony Tolliver
Key departures: SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, PF Marcus Morris
2017 draft class: SG Luke Kennard (Round: 1 Pick: 12)
2016-2017 points per game: 101.3 (No. 26)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .449 (No. 22)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .330 (No. 28)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 103.3 (No. 25)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 102.5 (No. 7)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .460 (No. 20)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .366 (No. 21)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.3 (No. 11)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 45.7 (No. 4)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.8 (No. 21)

Detroit is an odd team. The Pistons have a deep roster that is filled with just good veterans like Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond, and Reggie Jackson. There’s no real All-Star though on this roster. The addition of Avery Bradley is probably an improvement after the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and he provides a very good defensive presence. This is a young team with a good coach in Stan Van Gundy, and I look forward to watching this team grow in the coming years. However, I think losing Marcus Morris is going to hurt more than people think – he averaged 14 points and 4.6 rebound per game last year.

Prediction: 45-37 (sixth in the East)

Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) drives on Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42) during the first half of a preseason game at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Charlotte Hornets
2016-2017 record: 36-46
Key additions: C Dwight Howard, PG Michael Carter-Williams
Key departures: C/PF Miles Plumlee, SG/SF Marco Belinelli,
2017 draft class: SG Malik Monk (Round: 1 Pick: 11), SG Dwayne Bacon (Round: 2 Pick: 40)
2016-2017 points per game: 104.9 (No. 16)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .442 (No. 26)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .351 (No. 18)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 106.4 (No. 14)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 104.7 (No. 13)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .456 (No. 15)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .369 (No. 25)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.1 (No. 14)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.6 (No. 15)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -1.4 (No. 28)

Charlotte made a lot of moves that I like in the offseason – adding Dwight Howard, Michael Carter-Williams, and drafting Malik Monk. The Hornets have an All-Star in Kemba Walker and already have good depth with Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I would like Charlotte to win more games but Howard can be a head case at times and, even though I like Monk’s future in the league, relying on rookies to fill large roles can be a let down in the NBA.

Prediction: 42-40 (seventh in the East)

Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra reacts to play during the second half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Sprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Heat
2016-2017 record: 41-41
Key additions: C Kelly Olynyk, C A.J. Hammons
Key departures: PF Chris Bosh, PF Josh McRoberts
2017 draft class: PF Bam Adebayo (Round: 1 Pick: 14)
2016-2017 points per game: 103.2 (No. 21)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .455 (No. 15)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .365 (No. 12)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 105.2 (No. 16)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 102.1 (No. 5)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .450 (tied-No. 6)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .343 (tied-No. 3)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 104.1 (No. 5)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.6 (No. 15)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.4 (No. tied-No. 17)

I take a look at the rest of the East to fill this last spot and there’s just not much out there. Philadelphia is a becoming a trendy pick, but I’m having trouble thinking a team with injury prone Joel Embiid, aging J.J. Reddick, and two rookies Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz are going to be a playoff team. By default, I’m going with Miami. The Heat won 41 games last year and made some decent moves in the offseason by bringing in Kelly Olynyk and A.J. Hammons. Also, Erik Spoelstra is a good coach and I like some of the players already on Miami’s roster – Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson, and Justise Winslow.

Prediction: 41-41 (eighth in the East)

Western Conference division winners:

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Paul George (13) keeps the ball in bounds in the first quarter against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Northwest division – Oklahoma City Thunder
2016-2017 record: 47-35
Key additions: SF Paul George, SF Carmelo Anthony, PF Patrick Patterson. PG Raymond Felton
Key departures: SG/PG Victor Oladipo, PF Taj Gibson, C Enes Kanter, PF/C Domantas Sabonis, SF Doug McDermott
2017 draft class: SG Terrance Ferguson (Round: 1 Pick: 21)
2016-2017 points per game: 106.6 (No. 11)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .452 (No. 17)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .327 (No. 30)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 105 (No. 17)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 105.8 (No. 16)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .459 (No. 19)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .356 (No. 14)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.1 (No. 10)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 46.6 (No. 1)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +1.4 (No. 4)

Oklahoma City made huge splashes in the offseason by acquiring Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to pair with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams. This team has been getting a lot of hype to contend with Golden State in the West, and I agree that the Thunder are now very interesting. However, the front office got rid of a lot of depth in order to get George and Anthony, and Anthony has a history of not playing defense and being a head case. I like the decision to draft Terrance Ferguson and bringing in power forward Patrick Patterson though. This is going to be a much better team this season, but I’m not sure OKC will be as good as everyone thinks.

Prediction: 57-25 (third in the West)

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) stands on the court against the Denver Nuggets in the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Pacific division – Golden State Warriors
2016-2017 record: 67-15
Key additions: SG Nick Young
Key departures: N/A
2017 draft class: PF/C Jordan Bell (Round: 2 Pick: 38; acquired from Chicago)
2016-2017 points per game: 115.9 (No. 1)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .495 (No. 1)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .383 (No. 3)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 113.2 (No. 1)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 104.3 (No. 11)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .435 (No. 1)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .324 (No. 1)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 101.1 (No. 2)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 44.4 (No. 7)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.4 (No. 17)

Golden State is the best team in the league right now. The Warriors have a “Big Four” in Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green. They also have really good depth and a great head coach in Steve Kerr. Plus, adding Nick Young is only going to give this team more depth and it adds another scorer when the starters are off the court – bad news for the rest of the league. Barring any injuries, this team is easily going to win over 60 games and should have no problem getting back to the NBA Finals.

Prediction: 66-16 (first in the West)

Houston Rockets guard Chris Paul (3) and James Harden (13) during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Southwest division – Houston Rockets
2016-2017 record: 55-27
Key additions: PG Chris Paul, SF P.J. Tucker, PG/SF Tim Quarterman, PF Jarrod Uthoff
Key departures: SF/PF Sam Dekker, PG Patrick Beverley, SG/PG Lou Williams, PF Montrezl Harrell, PF Kyle Wiltjer
2017 draft class: PF Isaiah Hartenstein (Round: 2 Pick: 43)
2016-2017 points per game: 115.3 (No. 2)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .462 (No. 12)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .357 (No. 15)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 111.8 (No. 2)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 109.6 (No. 26)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .463 (No. 23)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .343 (No. 3)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 106.4 (No. 17)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 44.4 (No. 7)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +0.1 (No. 14)

Honestly, I think I like Houston more than Oklahoma City in the West. The addition of Chris Paul is going to be huge for Mike D’Antoni’s offense. He’s never had a point guard as good or as complete as Paul in his offense, and we’ve seen what D’Antoni can do with point guards – I think that needs to worry the rest of the league. James Harden, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson also had career years in this system last year – the three combined to average 58.9 points per game last year. Depth is a concern in Houston, but I think the Rockets’ offense is going to be so good this season that lacking sufficient depth might not hurt the team too bad.

Prediction: 60-22 (second in the West)

Other playoff teams in the West:

San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich argues a call with referee Lauren Holtkamp (not pictured) during the second half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

San Antonio Spurs
2016-2017 record: 61-21
Key additions: SF Rudy Gay, SG Brandon Paul
Key departures: PF David Lee, SG/SF Jonathon Simmons
2017 draft class: PG Derrick White (Round: 1 Pick: 29), SF Jaron Blossomgame (Round: 2 Pick: 59)
2016-2017 points per game: 105.3 (No. 14)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .469 (No. 7)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .391 (No. 1)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.8 (No. 7)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 98.1 (No. 2)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .443 (No. 4)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .344 (No. 5)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 100.9 (No. 1)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.9 (No. 10)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.9 (No. 23)

I struggle seeing San Antonio being as good as San Antonio has been the last few years. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Pau Gasol are aging, and LaMarcus Aldridge is a shell of his former self – averaging 17.6 points per game since joining the Spurs two years ago, compared to averaging 22.2 points per game in his final five years in Portland. Kawhi Leonard is a phenomenal player, but I think it’s starting to become a one-man show in San Antonio. Since Gregg Popovich is still this team’s coach, the Spurs should still be in good shape to win over 50 games. However, the Spurs didn’t improve much in the offseason and I think their championship window is starting to close.

Prediction: 55-27 (fourth in the West)

Minnesota Timberwolves player Jimmy Butler dunks against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first half during a preseason NBA basketball game at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Timberwolves
2016-2017 record: 31-51
Key additions: SG Jimmy Butler, PG Jeff Teague, PF Taj Gibson, SG Jamal Crawford,
Key departures: PG Ricky Rubio, PG Kris Dunn, SG/PG Zach LaVine, C Nikola Pekovic, PF Jordan Hill, PF Adreian Payne
2017 draft class: C Justin Patton (Round: 1 Pick: 16)
2016-2017 points per game: 105.6 (No. 13)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .467 (No. 8)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .349 (No. 20)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 108.1 (No. 10)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 106.7 (No. 18)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .475 (No. 28)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .366 (No. 21)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 109.1 (No. 26)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 42.4 (No. 25)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.4 (No. 17)

Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins have been in the league less than five years and both combined to average 48.7 points per game last season. However, the young talent has got to start coming together in Minnesota. With the addition of Jimmy Butler, I think this year will be the year Minnesota finally starts taking steps forward. Butler is excellent defensively and is a good three-point shooter – which should really help because Minnesota struggled in both of those categories last year. The Timberwolves also added pieces that should give them enough depth to compete in the West by signing Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, and Jamal Crawford. Plus, Tom Thibodeau is a good coach and I think he can take this team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

Prediction: 48-34 (fifth in the West)

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) shoots the ball over San Antonio Spurs forward Matt Costello (10) during the second half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Nuggets
2016-2017 record: 40-42
Key additions: PF Paul Millsap, PF Trey Lyles, SF Richard Jefferson, C Roy Hibbert
Key departures: SF/PF Danilo Gallinari
2017 draft class: PG Tyler Lydon (Round: 1 Pick: 24), SF Vlatko Cancar (Round: 2 Pick: 49), PG Monte Morris (Round: 2 Pick: 51)
2016-2017 points per game: 111.7 (No. 3)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .469 (No. 6)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .368 (No. 11)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 110 (No. 5)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 111.2 (No. 27)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .477 (No. 29)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .375 (No. 28)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 110.5 (No. 29)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 46.4 (No. 2)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: +3 (No. 2)

Denver has one of the best and deepest front courts in the NBA with Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee, Kenneth Faried, and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets also got deeper in that area by adding Trey Lyles, Richard Jefferson, and Roy Hibbert. They have a back court that is just good enough with Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, and Tyler Lydon. Denver was really good offensively last year and should be much improved defensively with the additions the team made to improve the front court in the offseason. The Nuggets won 40 games last year and barely missed the playoffs, so I don’t think it’s out of the question to think this team can win a few more games and make the postseason this year.

Prediction: 45-37 (sixth in the West)

Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) battles Portland Trail Blazers forward Caleb Swanigan (50) for a rebound in the first half of the game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Clippers
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Key additions: SF/PF Danilo Gallinari, PG Patrick Beverley, SF/PF Sam Dekker, PF Montrezl Harrell, SG/PG Lou Williams, PF Kyle Wiltjer
Key departures: PG Chris Paul, SG J.J. Reddick, SG Jamal Crawford
2017 draft class: PG Jawun Evans (Round: 2 Pick: 39; acquired from Philadelphia), SG Sindarius Thornwell (Round: 2 Pick: 59; acquired from Milwaukee)
2016-2017 points per game: 108.7 (No. 6)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .475 (No. 2)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .375 (No. 6)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 110.3 (No. 4)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 104.4 (No. 12)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .452 (No. 11)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .350 (No. 8)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 105.8 (No. 13)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43 (No. 21)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -0.1 (No. 16)

Losing Chris Paul is really going to hurt this team. However, there’s still DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin, and Doc Rivers there for the Clippers. So, this team shouldn’t completely fall off the map. Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverley are underrated players, in my opinion. I think they’ll be able to help keep this team afloat this season. The Clippers will probably struggle to get to 45 wins and they’re not going to be a contender, but if Jerry West can trade for an All-Star player by the trade deadline I think the Clippers can get to 50 wins.

Prediction: 42-40 (seventh in the West)

New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) controls the ball against the Chicago Bulls during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans Pelicans
2016-2017 record: 34-48
Key additions: PG Rajon Rondo
Key departures: PG Tim Frazier
2017 draft class: PG Frank Jackson (Round: 2 Pick: 31)
2016-2017 points per game: 104.3 (No. 18)
2016-2017 field-goal percentage: .450 (No. 20)
2016-2017 three-point percentage: .350 (No. 19)
2016-2017 offensive efficiency: 103.3 (No. 25)
2016-2017 points allowed per game: 106.4 (No. 17)
2016-2017 opponent field-goal percentage: .450 (No. 8)
2016-2017 opponent three-point percentage: .353 (No. 9)
2016-2017 defensive efficiency: 104.9 (No. 8)
2016-2017 rebounds per game: 43.7 (No. 13)
2016-2017 turnover differential per game: -1.1 (No. 25)

How much longer can New Orleans afford to waste Anthony Davis’ prime? He’s a perennial All-Star and arguably a top 10 player in the league. Maybe having a full year with DeMarcus Cousins to help take the pressure off Davis will make a difference with this team. The Pelicans don’t have a very good back court though, outside of Jrue Holliday. Still, New Orleans was a very good defensive team last year and was just seven games out of making the playoffs. Some of the moves made by teams in the West in the offseason has disrupted the hierarchy in that conference, so I think the Pelicans have just enough talent to win a few more games and sneak into the playoffs because of that.

Prediction: 41-41 (eighth in the West)

2018 NBA Finals:

Cleveland vs. Golden State

Winner: Golden State

My readers know me by now. I hate picking teams to repeat as champions, so it must show a lot that I’m predicting an NBA Finals between the same two teams for a fourth-consecutive season this year. I’m just confident in saying that the Cavaliers and Warriors are far and away the best teams in the league. I made a mistake last year by picking San Antonio to win it all. I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger on a team not named Cleveland or Golden State again this year. I hate being boring, but I’m going to feel like an idiot if I pick anyone else. Golden State is probably the most talented professional basketball team I’ve ever seen with a great coach and a deep bench. The Warriors are the clear favorites and I’ll be shocked if they don’t win it all.

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

9 NBA teams to watch this offseason

Shane Price Leave a comment

Movie quote of the day:

“But I know the rage that drives you. That impossible anger strangling the grief, until the memory of your loved one is just poison in your veins. And one day, you catch yourself wishing the person you loved had never existed so you’d be spared your pain.”

– Henri Ducard, “Batman Begins” (2005)

The NBA season just wrapped up last week. The draft is tomorrow and free agency starts July 1. This should be a very entertaining offseason. I mean, there’s already been plenty of chatter involving trades the last two days – my brain was about to explode this week. I always love the offseason process in every sport, but I think it’s particularly intriguing in the NBA because there’s always an All-Star or two to be on the move every year. Anyway, here’s nine teams (five playoff teams, four bottom feeders) that I think fans should keep an eye on the next few weeks.

Boston Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas dribbles the ball against the Washington Wizards during the first quarter in game four of the second round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Boston Celtics
2016-2017 record: 53-29
Draft picks: 4 (No. 3, No. 37, No. 53, No. 56)
Projected cap space: $18.4 million

I think Boston is the team to watch closely this offseason. The Celtics have to try to keep up with Cleveland to contend in the Eastern Conference, and because of that, I expect them to make some moves in the next few weeks. They have four draft picks tomorrow – including the No. 3 overall pick – and with the trade this week with Philadelphia, they now have 11 combined draft picks in 2018 and 2019 – seven in the first round. Also, Boston has one of the deepest rosters in the league filled with excellent role players. In conclusion, the Celtics are chop full of assets to make trades for All-Stars like Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward, or even Kristaps Porzingis (if the rumors are true that New York wants to move him). I’m not sure making trades for those players will close the gap with Cleveland, but it’s still worth a try.

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James reacts on the court during the first quarter against the Golden State Warriors in game three of the 2017 NBA Finals at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Cavaliers
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Draft picks: None
Projected cap space: $44.7 million

Boston is trying to keep up with Cleveland in the East. Meanwhile, Cleveland is trying to keep up with Golden State for supremacy in the NBA. Barring any possible future injuries, I’m not sure the Cavaliers have the roster to beat the Warriors in a NBA Finals series. Cleveland’s front office is going to try to make a splash this offseason to try to counter Golden State’s acquisition of Kevin Durant last year. I think that’s going to be a tougher task than it seems though. First, it’s kind of a subpar free agency class and Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert has been adamant about not spending any more money (the Cavaliers owed $54 million in luxury tax last season). Cleveland has only two draft picks in the next three years too – both are second-round picks – so that probably rules out the possibility of a trade unless a third party gets involved. Also, since general manager David Griffin decided to leave Cleveland this week, that means there could be chaos in the Cavaliers’ front office. So, I’d watch out for the possibility of LeBron James leaving Cleveland again – even though I find it highly unlikely.

Houston Rockets guard James Harden dribbles the ball in game four of the second round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs against the San Antonio Spurs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Rockets
2016-2017 record: 55-27
Draft picks: 2 (No. 43, No. 45)
Projected cap space: $2.5 million

As much as I respect San Antonio, I honestly think that Houston is the biggest threat to Golden State in the Western Conference. The Rockets already have the fire power offensively to contend with the Warriors, and has an offensive guru for a head coach. Still, they have to close the gap with the Warriors. In order to fix that, I think it’s going to have to come through free agency because Houston doesn’t have the draft picks to make a trade. The Rockets have been linked to make a strong run for some of the top free agents on the market this offseason like point guards Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry, and power forwards Blake Griffin and Paul Millsap. If the Rockets add one of those players at those positions, then I think things can get really interesting in the West, especially if they can add Paul.

Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) and guard Chris Paul react during a NBA basketball game against the Sacramento Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Clippers
2016-2017 record: 51-31
Draft picks: None
Projected cap space: $43 million

The window is closing for the Clippers to make a run for a championship, and similar to Houston, they really need to close the gap with the Warriors. Seriously, the Clippers haven’t beat Golden State since October 24, 2014. With the addition of Jerry West to the Clippers’ front office, I’m very interested to see what his plan is for the team this offseason. West is an eight-time NBA champion as a front office executive, so he knows how to assemble a championship team. Also, despite being 79, he has great respect amongst the young players currently in the league and I think he’ll be able to attract top players to Los Angeles – which is very convenient since the Clippers are projected to have $43 million in cap room this offseason. It all starts if West chooses to retain the Clippers’ “Big Three” (Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan). I think keeping Paul is a must, but I feel like the Clippers could afford to lose Griffin and Jordan and the team wouldn’t be much worse than they are now. Also, I wouldn’t rule out West making a move for LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony.

Los Angeles Lakers forward Brandon Ingram reacts after scoring a basket against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Lakers
2016-2017 record: 26-56
Draft picks: 3 (No. 2, No. 27, No. 28)
Projected cap space: $11.3 million

The Lakers have already started to make moves this offseason by agreeing to trade D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov to Brooklyn for Brook Lopez and the No. 27 pick this week. That now gives the Lakers three first-round picks – one of them is the No. 2 pick – and keep in mind, this draft class is one of the most talented since 2003. They have a great chance to draft some playmakers tomorrow. Since the Lakers just traded a point guard, I’m willing to bet they go with Lonzo Ball with the No. 2 pick. Back to the trade, Lopez is a very underrated player – averaging 20.5 points per game the last two seasons – and acquiring him I think is a great move by the Lakers, but this was mostly a salary cap dump to make cap room for Paul George, or maybe even LeBron James. I’d say the Magic Johnson Era in the Lakers’ front office is off to a great start.

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins (left) and center Karl-Anthony Towns during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Timberwolves
2016-2017 record: 31-51
Draft picks: 1 (No. 7)
Projected cap space: $24.9 million

To me, Minnesota is without a doubt the most intriguing team that didn’t make the playoffs last year. The Timberwolves have to have the best young corps of talent in the NBA. They have two future superstars in Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, and Zach LaVine has a very bright future as well. Not to mention Minnesota has veteran head coach Tom Thibodeau – who has experience in getting to the postseason. I the Timberwolves are just a player away from being a playoff team, and I think a few years removed from possibly being a contender in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves have done an excellent job of building this team and I think Minnesota should certainly be an appealing destination to free agents this offseason. Plus, this year has one of the most talented draft classes ever and I fully expect Minnesota to find another playmaker. Keep an eye on the Timberwolves.

New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony reacts during the second half against the San Antonio Spurs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

New York Knicks
2016-2017 record: 31-51
Draft picks: 3 (No. 8, No. 44, No. 58)
Projected cap space: $18.9 million

Even though New York is a dumpster fire right now, I still feel like the Knicks are an intriguing team this offseason. It’s hard to tell which players will be free agents or will likely be traded, but outside of the Lakers, I feel like New York is the most desired destination in the NBA – mostly because of the opportunity to play at Madison Square Garden and New York City has such a massive appeal to players. Even though the Knicks have been terrible for years now, I feel like the attraction is still there, but having Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony in the organization really hurts – seriously, it feels like Jackson is just giving up as a front office executive and Anthony is a cancer in the locker room. Despite the fact that New York has an incompetent jabroni in the front office and one of the most cancerous players in the league, this team was still just 10 games out from being in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference. Plus, this team has Kristaps Porzingis, who looks to be the face of the Knicks’ organization. He’s just 21 years old and looks to have the potential to be a cornerstone piece to build around. I want New York to do well because I think having a successful Knicks team is only good for the NBA. So, please don’t trade Porzingis, Phil.

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid reacts after being fouled against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia 76ers
2016-2017 record: 28-54
Draft picks: 5 (No. 1, No. 36, No. 39, No. 46, No. 50)
Projected cap space: $42.6 million

After the recent trade with Boston to move up and acquire the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, I honestly feel like Philadelphia is slowly becoming the Minnesota of the Eastern Conference (#TrustTheProcess). Assuming the 76ers draft Markelle Fultz, they’ll have a young corps with a bright future in Fultz, Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons. Fultz is a combo guard that can shoot – which is exactly what is needed to win in today’s NBA. We’ve seen what Joel Embiid can do when he’s healthy – he averaged 20.2 points per game last year in just 31 games. We haven’t seen Simmons yet due to a foot injury, but his potential is there. I’m not saying Philadelphia is going to turn it around this season with a healthy Simmons and Embiid, and the presumable addition of Fultz, but I look forward to seeing how these players develop and play together. This team is still likely going to be a bottom feeder this season and the 76ers will likely get another lottery pick next year – which is just another chance to build this young corps. Like with Minnesota, I say give it a few years and I think Philadelphia could become an intriguing destination for veteran free agents.

San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard reacts during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies in game four of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

San Antonio Spurs
2016-2017 record: 61-21
Draft picks: 2 (No. 29, No. 59)
Projected cap space: $29.6 million

Like I’ve already said, teams have to close the gap with Golden State in order to have a prayer of winning the NBA championship. Obviously, one of those teams is San Antonio. The Spurs have some cornerstone pieces to win like Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge. However, they also have some of older players like Pau Gasol and Tony Parker who don’t match up well with the Warriors. It’s been rumored that San Antonio will make a run for Chris Paul in free agency – which would be an excellent start to trying to contend with Golden State. San Antonio has the cap space to sign some free agents. Also, the Spurs have assets if they wanted to make a trade. They have some, not a lot, but some draft picks along with a plethora of role players that could be valuable to some teams. This isn’t usually San Antonio’s style, but it’s desperate times right now to try to keep up with Golden State.

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53